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NASA NTRS2020

Identifying Hurricane Impacts on Barbuda Using Citizen Science Ground Observations, Drone Photography and Satellite Imagery

Barbuda is a low-lying leeward island in the West Indies. In September 2017 Hurricane Irma battered the island with 185 mph winds. Damage to housing and infrastructure was so extensive that all 1800 residents of the island were immediately evacuated post hurricane to the neighboring island of Antigua. Our research is focused on documenting and analyzing the landscape scale changes that took place on the island as a result of the hurricane using a nested methodology. Ground level observations were recorded using a beta version of the Global Learning and Observation to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Observer Land Cover tool. Aerial photographs provide medium scale landscape resolution. Satellite images were processed to provide NDVI values. We describe how nested data at several spatial scales enable detailed description of Hurricane Irma’s impact across the landscape of this 62 sq. mile island. Here we are connecting observations at different spatial scales, using citizen science observations, aerial drone photography and satellite imagery to document and analyze hurricane impacts on the island of Barbuda, eastern Caribbean.

Barbuda↗

DOE OSTI2022

Incorporating climate change into risk-informed resilience planning

In response to the development of portfolio-wide Climate Action Plans by federal agencies, federal sites are working to incorporate the impacts of climate change into their resilience assessments. However, it can be challenging to incorporate climate change scenarios into resilience assessments given the uncertainty inherent in climate change modeling. Incorporating these factors into a resilience plan requires an understanding of what the different climate scenarios mean, as well as how to estimate potential impacts of climate change on hazard occurrence on a regional, or even local, scale under different scenarios. We discuss approaches to incorporating this data into risk-informed resilience assessment processes, such as those implemented in the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program’s (FEMP) Technical Resilience Navigator (TRN) and the Sustainability Performance Division’s (SPD) Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) Risk Assessment Tool. We also describe the climate scenarios and the availability of hazard data for site resilience planning, based on modeling included in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Climate Assessment (NCA), and state-level reports. We present examples from the TRN risk assessment and the VARP Risk Assessment Tool to illustrate how sensitivity analysis can be used to incorporate climate change projections into the resilience planning process.

Rabinowitz, Hannah S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Velocity-dependent J-factors for annihilation radiation from cosmological simulations

Abstract We determine the dark matter pair-wise relative velocity distribution in a set of Milky Way-like halos in the Auriga and APOSTLE simulations. Focusing on the smooth halo component, the relative velocity distribution is well-described by a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution over nearly all radii in the halo. We explore the implications for velocity-dependent dark matter annihilation, focusing on four models which scale as different powers of the relative velocity: Sommerfeld, s-wave, p-wave, and d-wave models. We show that the J-factors scale as the moments of the relative velocity distribution, and that the halo-to-halo scatter is largest for d-wave, and smallest for Sommerfeld models. The J-factor is strongly correlated with the dark matter density in the halo, and is very weakly correlated with the velocity dispersion. This implies that if the dark matter density in the Milky Way can be robustly determined, one can accurately predict the dark matter annihilation signal, without the need to identify the dark matter velocity distribution in the Galaxy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Uncertainty of the Future Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: Comparative Analysis of an Advanced Hierarchical Sensitivity in Humid and Semiarid Basins

Comparison and quantification of different uncertainties of future climate change involved in the modeling of a hydrological system are highly important for both hydrological modelers and policy-makers. However, few studies have accurately estimated the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty at different spatiotemporal scales. Here, a hierarchical sensitivity analysis framework (HSAF) incorporated with a variance-based global sensitivity analysis is developed to quantify the spatiotemporal contributions of different uncertainties in hydrological impacts of climate change in two different climatic (humid and semiarid) basins in China. The uncertainty sources include three emission scenarios (ESs), 20 global climate models (GCs), three hydrological models (HMs), and the associated sensitive hydrological parameters (PAs) screened and sampled by the Morris and Latin hypercube sampling methods, respectively. Further, the results indicate that the overall trend of uncertainty is PA > HM > GC > ES, but their uncertainties have discrepancies in projections of different hydrological variables. The HM uncertainty in annual and monthly discharge projections is generally larger than the PA uncertainty in the humid basin than semiarid basin. The PA has greater uncertainty in extreme hydrological event (annual peak discharge) projections than in annual discharge projections for both basins (particularly for the humid basin), but contributes larger uncertainty to annual and monthly discharge projections in the semiarid basin than humid basin. The GC contributes larger uncertainty in all the hydrological variables projections in the humid basin than semiarid basin, while the ES uncertainty is rather limited in both basins. Overall, our results suggest there is greater spatiotemporal variability of hydrological uncertainty in more arid regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Pc3 activity at low geomagnetic latitudes - A comparison with solar wind observations

On an hourly time-scale the different roles of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters on ground micropulsation activity can be better investigated than at longer time-scales. A long-term comparison between ground measurements made at L'Aquila and IMP 8 observations confirms the solar wind speed as the key parameter for the onset of pulsations even at low latitudes, although additional control of the energy transfer from the interplanetary medium to the earth's magnetosphere is clearly exerted by the cone angle. Above about 20 mHz the frequency of pulsations is confirmed to be closely related to the IMF magnitude while, in agreement with model predictions, the IMF magnitude is related to the amplitude of the local fundamental resonant mode. We provide an interesting example in which high resolution measurements simultaneously obtained in the foreshock region and on the ground show that external transversal fluctuations do not penetrate deep into the low latitude magnetosphere.

Villante, U.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Soil microenvironmental variation drives below‐ground trait variation and interacts with macroclimate to structure above‐ground trait variation of arctic shrubs

Abstract Intraspecific trait variation can influence plant performance in different environments and may thereby determine the ability of individual plants to respond to climate change. However, our understanding of its patterns and environmental drivers across different spatial scales is incomplete, especially in understudied regions like the Arctic. To fill this knowledge gap, we examined above‐ground and below‐ground traits from three shrub taxa expanding across the tundra biome and evaluated their relationships with multiple microenvironmental and macroclimatic factors. The traits reflected plant size and structure (plant height, leaf area and root to shoot ratio), leaf economics (specific leaf area, nitrogen content), and root economics and collaboration with mycorrhizal fungi (specific root length, root tissue density, nitrogen content, and ectomycorrhizal colonisation intensity). We also measured leaf and root δ 15 N and leaf δ 13 C to characterise nitrogen source and acquisition pathways and plant water stress. Traits were measured in replicated plots ( N = 135) varying in soil microclimate, thaw depth and organic layer thickness established across five sites spanning a macroclimate gradient in northern Alaska. This hierarchical design allowed us to disentangle the independent and combined effects of fine‐scale and broad‐scale factors on intraspecific trait variation. We found substantial intraspecific variation at fine spatial scales for most traits and less variation along the macroclimate gradient and between shrub taxa. Consistent with these patterns, microenvironmental factors, mainly soil moisture and thaw depth, interacted with macroclimate, mainly climatic water deficit, to structure size‐structural and leaf trait variation. In contrast, most root traits responded additively to thaw depth and macroclimate. Synthesis . Our results demonstrate that above‐ground and below‐ground tundra shrub traits respond differently to microenvironmental and macroclimatic variation. These differing responses contribute to substantial trait variation at fine spatial scales and may decouple above‐ground and below‐ground trait responses to climate change.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

NASA NTRS1983

The influence of rain and clouds on a satellite dual frequency radar altimeter system operating at 13 and 35 GHz

The effects of inhomogeneous spatial attenuation resulting from clouds and rain on the altimeter estimate of the range to mean sea level are modelled. It is demonstrated that typical cloud and rain attenuation variability at commonly expected spatial scales can significantly degrade altimeter range precision. Rain cell and cloud scale sizes and attenuations are considered as factors. The model simulation of altimeter signature distortion is described, and the distortion of individual radar pulse waveforms by different spatial scales of attenuation is considered. Examples of range errors found for models of a single cloud, a rain cell, and cloud streets are discussed.

Walsh, E. J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

SCALE 6.2 Lattice Physics Performance Assessment

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relies on the lattice physics analysis capabilities of the SCALE code system to perform confirmatory licensing analyses. Either SCALE lattice physics code—TRITON/NEWT or Polaris—can be used to generate cross section data used by the PARCS nodal core simulator for full-core neutronics calculations. This report presents an assessment of the accuracy of SCALE lattice physics codes for preparation of lattice physics data that are used to support simulator codes such as the NRC’s PARCS, for UO 2 -mixed oxide (MOX)/Zr fueled light water reactor (LWR) analyses. Due to the nature of lattice physics calculations, critical reactor experiment benchmarks cannot be modeled in explicit detail in a lattice physics code. However, this limitation does not mean that these measurement data are not usable for lattice physics studies. Therefore, either geometry approximations or axial buckling must be implemented to determine the critical water height. These modeling limitations have led to development of a three-phase assessment strategy. In the first phase, selected critical experiment benchmarks are modeled using the SCALE 3D continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo (MC) code KENO, which is the most rigorous neutron transport method available in SCALE, with no approximations in the spatial, angle, or energy treatments. Biases and statistical uncertainties in quantities of interest such as k eff and pin power distributions are determined by comparing CE KENO results to experimental data. This first phase in the accuracy assessment is to demonstrate and establish the use of CE KENO as a reference solution for the second phase. In the second phase, 14 numerical test suites are used to compare SCALE lattice physics calculations with CE KENO as a reference solution. In the third phase, SCALE lattice physics depletion calculations are performed, and the spent fuel isotopic results are compared with available radiochemical assay measurements. Isotopic measurement comparisons provide quantitative assessment of isotopic density distribution predictions with the depletion models in SCALE lattice physics codes. This report documents results for all test suites. The assessment was performed using standard production techniques unless otherwise noted. Both TRITON/NEWT and Polaris exhibited acceptable accuracy for most test cases. For the few test cases in which acceptable accuracy criteria were not met, further code and data development are planned. The computer codes used in this assessment are as follows: SCALE 6.2 rev19189 (pre-release of 6.2.1) was used for CE KENO, TRITON/NEWT and Polaris (PWR only) calculations; SCALE 6.2.2 was used for Polaris calculations to address several updates in support of support boiling water reactor (BWR) lattice geometries. For this work, there is no difference between SCALE 6.2.1 and SCALE 6.2.2 beyond the inclusion of the Polaris BWR analysis capability; The ENDF/B-VII.1 continuous energy and 252 group libraries deployed in SCALE 6.2 were generated with AMPX 6.2 that is distributed with SCALE.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1979

Sound production due to large-scale coherent structures

The acoustic pressure fluctuations due to large-scale finite amplitude disturbances in a free turbulent shear flow are calculated. The flow is decomposed into three component scales; the mean motion, the large-scale wave-like disturbance, and the small-scale random turbulence. The effect of the large-scale structure on the flow is isolated by applying both a spatial and phase average on the governing differential equations and by initially taking the small-scale turbulence to be in energetic equilibrium with the mean flow. The subsequent temporal evolution of the flow is computed from global energetic rate equations for the different component scales. Lighthill's theory is then applied to the region with the flowfield as the source and an observer located outside the flowfield in a region of uniform velocity. Since the time history of all flow variables is known, a minimum of simplifying assumptions for the Lighthill stress tensor is required, including no far-field approximations. A phase average is used to isolate the pressure fluctuations due to the large-scale structure, and also to isolate the dynamic process responsible. Variation of mean square pressure with distance from the source is computed to determine the acoustic far-field location and decay rate, and, in addition, spectra at various acoustic field locations are computed and analyzed. Also included are the effects of varying the growth and decay of the large-scale disturbance on the sound produced.

Gatski, T. B.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Preflare characteristics of active regions observed in soft X-rays

X-ray images from the AS&E telescope on Skylab are used to investigate coronal conditions in solar active regions during the 20-min periods preceding the X-ray onsets of small flares. The preflare or precursor phase is defined as a phase with a characteristic length or time scale significantly different from that of the rise phase. We show that there is no observational evidence of a requirement for a coronal preflare heating phase with a time scale longer than 2 min for small flares characterized by one or two loops. In 18 out of 25 cases the flaring X-ray structure was not the brightest feature in the preflare active region. The electron densities are estimated for preflare loops.

Kahler, S. W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Perspectives on integrated modeling of transport processes in semiconductor crystal growth

The wide range of length and time scales involved in industrial scale solidification processes is demonstrated here by considering the Czochralski process for the growth of large diameter silicon crystals that become the substrate material for modern microelectronic devices. The scales range in time from microseconds to thousands of seconds and in space from microns to meters. The physics and chemistry needed to model processes on these different length scales are reviewed.

Brown, Robert A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Numerical Simulations in Support of a Long-Term Test of Gas Production from Hydrate Accumulations on the Alaska North Slope: Reservoir Response to Interruptions of Production (Shut-Ins)

In this work, we investigate by means of numerical simulation a planned year-long field test of depressurization-induced production from a permafrost-associated hydrate reservoir on the Alaska North Slope at the site of the recently drilled Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well. The main objective of this study is to assess quantitatively the impact of temporary interruptions (well shut-ins) on the expected fluid production performance from the B1 Sand of the stratigraphic Unit B during controlled depressurization over different time scales, as well as on other relevant aspects of the system response that have the potential to significantly affect the design of the field test. We consider eight different cases of depressurization, including (a) rapid depressurization over a 60-day period to a terminal bottomhole pressure P W of 2.8 MPa and (b) a slower depressurization rate to a final P W of 0.6 MPa at the end of the year-long production test, in addition to (c) a multi-step depressurization regime and (d) a quasi-linear continuous depressurization strategy. The results of the study indicate that shut-ins obviously reduce gas release and production during and immediately after their occurrence, but their longer-term effects are strongly dependent on the depressurization regime and on the time of observation, covering the entire range of potential outcomes. Shut-ins (a) have a universally strong negative effect when quasi-linear depressurization is involved regardless of the length of the production period, and (b) have a strong positive effect in multi-step depressurization schemes that becomes apparent earlier for large initial pressure drops, but (c) can also appear to have practically no effect for slow stepwise depressurization at the end of the year-long production test. Shut-ins lead to a rapid reformation of hydrates, even to the point of disappearance of a free gas phase in the reservoir. Rapid depressurization regimes lead to early maximum rates of hydrate dissociation and gas production, while the maximum rates occur at the end of the production test for the cases of slower depressurization. Shut-ins do not appear to have a significant impact on water production, as the cessation of production is followed by higher rates production when depressurization resumes. Similarly, (a) the fraction of produced CH 4 originating from exsolution from the water, (b) the water-to-gas ratio, and (c) the rate of replenishment of produced water by boundary inflows do not appear significantly affected by shut-ins, the effects of which seem to be temporary in the majority of the cases. The study confirmed the superiority of multi-step depressurization methods as the most effective strategies for hydrate dissociation and gas production and showed that two observation wells (located at distances of 30 and 50 m from the production well) are appropriately positioned and both able to capture the P, T, and S G behavior during the fluid production and shut-ins in any of the eight cases we investigated.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Imaging of Nuclear Deformation at the Electron-Ion Collider

We show within the Color Glass Condensate framework that exclusive vector meson production at high energy is sensitive to the geometric deformation of the target nucleus at multiple length scales. Studying e+U collisions and varying the deformation of the uranium target, we demonstrate that larger deformations result in enhanced incoherent vector meson production cross sections. Further, different multipole deformation parameters affect different regions of transverse momentum transfer. Employing JIMWLK evolution to study the Bjorken-x dependence of our results, we find that the ratio of incoherent to coherent cross sections decreases with decreasing x, largely independently of the quadrupole deformation of the target. Comparing results for the same process using 20 Ne targets with 16 O targets, we find that differences in deformation are clearly visible in the incoherent cross section. These findings show that certain observables at the Electron-Ion Collider are very sensitive to nuclear structure. Consequently, deformations need to be taken into account when interpreting experimental results. More importantly, this also means that |t|-differential diffractive vector meson production could become a powerful tool, enabling the most direct measurements of nuclear structure at different length scales, ranging from nuclear deformation at low |t| to nucleon and subnucleon-size scales at higher |t|.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Sensitivity-based scaling for correlating structural response from different analytical models

This paper presents a sensitivity-based linearly varying scale factor used to reconcile results from simple and refined models for analysis of the same structure. The improved accuracy of the linear scale factor compared to a constant scale factor as well as the commonly used tangent approximation is demonstrated. A wing box structure is used as an example, with displacements, stresses and frequencies correlated. The linear scale factor could permit the use of a simplified model in an optimization procedure during preliminary design to approximate the response given by a refined model over a considerable range of design changes.

Chang, Kwan J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Richtmyer-Meshkov instability experiments to isolate the strain rate dependence of strength

Theoretical analysis of Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI) experiments for solid strength shows that the strain rate for a given shock should be inversely proportional to the length scale of the sine wave perturbations when η 0 k , the nondimensional amplitude to wavelength ratio, is held fixed. To isolate the effect of strain rate on strength, free-surface RMI specimens of annealed copper were prepared with three perturbation regions with the same η 0 k but different length scales, characterized by the wavelength λ varying by a factor of 4.9 from 65 to 130 to 320 µ m . Three such targets with different fixed η 0 k ′ s were impacted to a shock pressure of 25 GPa, and the instability evolution was measured with photon Doppler velocimetry. Strengths estimated by comparing hydrocode simulation to the data increased from 700 to 1200 MPa as λ decreased. The different η 0 k targets exercised increasing amounts of plastic strain yet showed no evidence of strain hardening. Physical regime sensitivity analysis determined that for 320 − 65 µ m wavelength perturbations, the effective strain rates increased from 8.7 × 10 6 to 3.3 × 10 7 s − 1 , a factor of 3.8. Thus, the predicted strain rate scaling was mostly achieved but slightly suppressed by increased strength at higher rates. The RMI strength estimates were plotted against constitutive testing data on copper from the literature to show striking evidence of the strength upturn at higher strain rates. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2006

Final Results from the BIMA CMB Anisotropy Survey and Search for Signature of the SZ Effect

We report the final results of our study of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) with the BIMA array. Over 1000 hours of observation were dedicated to this project exploring CMB anisotropy on scales between 1' and 2' in eighteen 6'.6 FWHM fields. In the analysis of the CMB power spectrum, the visibility data is divided into two bins corresponding to different angular scales. Modeling the observed excess power as a flat band of average multipole l(sub eff)= 5237, we find deltaT(sup 2)(sub 1) = 220(sup +140)(sub -120) mu K(sup 2) at 68% confidence and deltaT(sup 2)(sub 1) greater than 0 muK(sup 2) with 94.7% confidence. In a second band with average multipole of l(sub eff) = 8748, we find deltaT(sup 2)(sub 2) consistent with zero, and an upper limit 880 muK(sup 2) at 95% confidence. An extensive series of tests and supplemental observations with the VLA provide strong evidence against systematic errors or radio point sources being the source of the observed excess power. The dominant source of anisotropy on these scales is expected to arise from the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect in a population of distant galaxy clusters. If the excess power is due to the SZ effect, we can place constraints on the normalization of the matter power spectrum sigma(sub 8) = 1.03(sup +0.20)(sub -0.29) at 68% confidence. The distribution of pixel fluxes in the BIMA images are found to be consistent with simulated observations of the expected SZ background and rule out instrumental noise or radio sources as the source of the observed excess power with similar confidence to the detection of excess power. Follow-up optical observations to search for galaxy over-densities anti-correlated with flux in the BIMA images, as might be expected from the SZ effect, proved to be inconclusive.

Dawson, K. S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Global View of Aerosol Vertical Distributions from CALIPSO Lidar Measurements and GOCART Simulations: Regional and Seasonal Variations

This study examines seasonal variations of the vertical distribution of aerosols through a statistical analysis of the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) lidar observations from June 2006 to November 2007. A data-screening scheme is developed to attain good quality data in cloud-free conditions, and the polarization measurement is used to separate dust from non-dust aerosol. The CALIPSO aerosol observations are compared with aerosol simulations from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) model and aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The CALIPSO observations of geographical patterns and seasonal variations of AOD are generally consistent with GOCART simulations and MODIS retrievals especially near source regions, while the magnitude of AOD shows large discrepancies in most regions. Both the CALIPSO observation and GOCART model show that the aerosol extinction scale heights in major dust and smoke source regions are generally higher than that in industrial pollution source regions. The CALIPSO aerosol lidar ratio also generally agrees with GOCART model within 30% on regional scales. Major differences between satellite observations and GOCART model are identified, including (1) an underestimate of aerosol extinction by GOCART over the Indian sub-continent, (2) much larger aerosol extinction calculated by GOCART than observed by CALIPSO in dust source regions, (3) much weaker in magnitude and more concentrated aerosol in the lower atmosphere in CALIPSO observation than GOCART model over transported areas in midlatitudes, and (4) consistently lower aerosol scale height by CALIPSO observation than GOCART model. Possible factors contributing to these differences are discussed.

Yu, Hongbin↗

DOE OSTI2023

Revised Nitrogen Reduction Scaling Relations from Potential-Dependent Modeling of Chemical and Electrochemical Steps

The electrochemical nitrogen reduction reaction (NRR) is a promising route to enable carbon-free ammonia production. However, this reaction is limited by the poor activity and selectivity of current catalysts. The rational design of superior NRR electrocatalysts requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of current material limitations to inform how these might be overcome. The current understanding of how scaling limits NRR on metal catalysts is predicated on a simplified reaction pathway that considers only proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) steps. Here, we apply grand-canonical density functional theory to investigate a more comprehensive NRR mechanism that includes both electrochemical and chemical steps on 30 metal surfaces in solvent under an applied potential. We applied ..phi..max, a grand-canonical adaptation of the Gmax thermodynamic descriptor, to evaluate trends in catalyst activity. This approach produces a ..phi..max "volcano" diagram for NRR activity scaling on metals that qualitatively differs from the scaling relations identified when only PCET steps are considered. NH3* desorption was found to limit the NRR activity for materials at the top of the volcano and truncate the volcano's peak at increasingly reducing potentials. These revised scaling relations may inform the rational design of superior NRR electrocatalysts. This approach is transferable to study other materials and reaction chemistries where both electrochemical and chemical steps are modeled under an applied potential.

electrocatalysis↗