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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Singular value decomposition of adjoint flux distributions for Monte Carlo variance reduction

Monte Carlo (MC) shielding calculations often use weight windows (WWs) and biased sources formed from a deterministic estimate of the adjoint flux to improve the convergence rate of tallies. This requires a significant amount of computer memory, which can limit the memory available for high-resolution tally output. A new method is proposed for reducing these memory requirements by using singular value decomposition (SVD) in linear or logarithmic space to approximate the adjoint flux. This method’s performance is evaluated using the Shift and Denovo codes for streaming and diffusion base case problems, followed by problems using the Westinghouse AP1000 and the Joint European Torus. The log SVD reduced WW memory requirements by an order of magnitude in all cases without a significant performance penalty. Additionally, the linear SVD reduced biased source memory requirements by an order of magnitude, but further investigation is needed to account for observed limitations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Real-time plasma monitoring framework for advanced plasma control and ML-research in DIII-D

Real-time and adaptive plasma control is crucial for robust tokamak operation, requiring sensitivity and tolerance measurements of the plasma state. This paper presents the implementation of an integrated real-time plasma monitoring framework on the DIII-D tokamak to support advanced control approaches, including machine-learning (ML) methods. The system is built on the SHIELD framework, a high-performance modular architecture that provides a unified pipeline for integrating diverse diagnostics. The framework leverages high-bandwidth digitizers, fast numerical processing, and deterministic, low-latency interconnects to stream high-fidelity data from diagnostics such as electron cyclotron emission (ECE), beam emission spectroscopy (BES), CO interferometers, and a visible tangential divertor camera (TangTV). The system’s validity is demonstrated through direct comparisons of real-time and offline data. Furthermore, we present two key applications of the developed plasma monitoring system with ML-based plasma control strategies, including real-time divertor detachment and active Alfvén Eigenmode control. As a result, this work presents a robust and scalable approach for integrating high-frequency, multidimensional diagnostics into advanced control algorithms for future fusion devices.

AI/ML↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗
DOE OSTI2014

The deterministic chaos and random noise in turbulent jet

A turbulent flow is usually treated as a superposition of coherent structure and incoherent turbulence. In this paper, the largest Lyapunov exponent and the random noise in the near field of round jet and plane jet are estimated with our previously proposed method of chaotic time series analysis [T. L. Yao, et al., Chaos 22, 033102 (2012)]. The results show that the largest Lyapunov exponents of the round jet and plane jet are in direct proportion to the reciprocal of the integral time scale of turbulence, which is in accordance with the results of the dimensional analysis, and the proportionality coefficients are equal. In addition, the random noise of the round jet and plane jet has the same linear relation with the Kolmogorov velocity scale of turbulence. As a result, the random noise may well be from the incoherent disturbance in turbulence, and the coherent structure in turbulence may well follow the rule of chaotic motion.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Simplified Multi-Path Event Tree for the Integral, Inherently-Safe Light Water Reactor (I{sup 2}S-LWR)

The Integral, Inherently-Safe Light Water Reactor (I{sup 2}S-LWR) concept aims to raise the bar for nuclear power plant safety while maintaining the economic advantages of large, gigawatt-scale plants.1 To obtain this goal, the project safety team seeks to eliminate initiating events where possible, maximize passivity of safety systems, and optimize a balance of redundancy, diversity, and simplicity of safety systems.2 Achievement of these objectives, particularly the last set, requires detailed, quantitative risk information from the earliest stages of development. Therefore, despite limited design information, we have constructed a preliminary probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for I{sup 2}S-LWR. Safety implementation for I{sup 2}S-LWR, then, requires an iterative process involving system design, thermal-hydraulic (T/H) and neutronic deterministic analyses, and risk-informing PRA studies. Due to this parallelism, it is vital those team members without PRA expertise quickly and correctly understand preliminary PRA results. To this end, we have developed a method to condense the entire PRA into a single, multi-path event tree (MPET). (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Coupling sample paths to the thermodynamic limit in Monte Carlo estimators with applications to gene expression

Many biochemical systems appearing in applications have a multiscale structure so that they converge to piecewise deterministic Markov processes in a thermodynamic limit. The statistics of the piecewise deterministic process can be obtained much more efficiently than those of the exact process. We explore the possibility of coupling sample paths of the exact model to the piecewise deterministic process in order to reduce the variance of their difference. We then apply this coupling to reduce the computational complexity of a Monte Carlo estimator. Motivated by the rigorous results in , we show how this method can be applied to realistic biological models with nontrivial scalings.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diffusion Probabilistic Modeling for Video Generation

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models are a promising new class of generative models that mark a milestone in high-quality image generation. This paper showcases their ability to sequentially generate video, surpassing prior methods in perceptual and probabilistic forecasting metrics. We propose an autoregressive, end-to-end optimized video diffusion model inspired by recent advances in neural video compression. The model successively generates future frames by correcting a deterministic next-frame prediction using a stochastic residual generated by an inverse diffusion process. We compare this approach against six baselines on four datasets involving natural and simulation-based videos. We find significant improvements in terms of perceptual quality and probabilistic frame forecasting ability for all datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

DEVELOPMENT OF A VERIFICATION BENCHMARK SUITE FOR THE ATR REACTOR PHYSICS UPGRADE

The result of a numerical algorithm is only as good as the effort made toward its verification. Comprehensive computer codes, especially for application to nuclear reactors, require in-depth assessment of the numerical methods used and their computational implementation. This presentation describes a suite of semi-analytical benchmarks for the ATR Reactor Physics Upgrade as part of the ATR Life Extension Project (LEP). Several neutron transport codes including deterministic codes HELIOS, NEWT and probabilistic codes MCNP6, SERPANT and MC21 are upgrade candidates. To properly evaluate code performance capabilities, code verification is an essential element. A credible verification program requires education to guide proper application, training in proper input preparation and output expectation and verification to instill confidence in the coded numerical procedures. The subset of the benchmark suite to be described here is primarily of the 1D transport variety (however, a 2D case does indeed exist) with the intent to provide unquestionably high order accurate semi-analytical numerical solutions to the transport equation. We base the analytical solutions on analytical Fourier series and discrete ordinates representations. Here we present two 1D benchmarks based on Fourier series.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Poster - 18: New features in EGSnrc for photon cross sections

Purpose: To implement two new features in the EGSnrc Monte Carlo system. The first is an option to account for photonuclear attenuation, which can contribute a few percent to the total cross section at the higher end of the energy range of interest to medical physics. The second is an option to use exact NIST XCOM photon cross sections. Methods: For the first feature, the photonuclear total cross sections are generated from the IAEA evaluated data. In the current, first-order implementation, after a photonuclear event, there is no energy deposition or secondary particle generation. The implementation is validated against deterministic calculations and experimental measurements of transmission signals. For the second feature, before this work, if the user explicitly requested XCOM photon cross sections, EGSnrc still used its own internal incoherent scattering cross sections. These differ by up to 2% from XCOM data between 30 keV and 40 MeV. After this work, exact XCOM incoherent scattering cross sections are an available option. Minor interpolation artifacts in pair and triplet XCOM cross sections are also addressed. The default for photon cross section in EGSnrc is XCOM except for the new incoherent scattering cross sections, which have to be explicitly requested. The photonuclear, incoherent, pair and triplet data from this work are available for elements and compounds for photon energies from 1 keV to 100 GeV. Results: Both features are implemented and validated in EGSnrc.Conclusions: The two features are part of the standard EGSnrc distribution as of version 4.2.3.2.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Comparison of different moment-closure approximations for stochastic chemical kinetics

In recent years, moment-closure approximations (MAs) of the chemical master equation have become a popular method for the study of stochastic effects in chemical reaction systems. Several different MA methods have been proposed and applied in the literature, but it remains unclear how they perform with respect to each other. In this paper, we study the normal, Poisson, log-normal, and central-moment-neglect MAs by applying them to understand the stochastic properties of chemical systems whose deterministic rate equations show the properties of bistability, ultrasensitivity, and oscillatory behaviour. Our results suggest that the normal MA is favourable over the other studied MAs. In particular, we found that (i) the size of the region of parameter space where a closure gives physically meaningful results, e.g., positive mean and variance, is considerably larger for the normal closure than for the other three closures, (ii) the accuracy of the predictions of the four closures (relative to simulations using the stochastic simulation algorithm) is comparable in those regions of parameter space where all closures give physically meaningful results, and (iii) the Poisson and log-normal MAs are not uniquely defined for systems involving conservation laws in molecule numbers. We also describe the new software package MOCA which enables the automated numerical analysis of various MA methods in a graphical user interface and which was used to perform the comparative analysis presented in this paper. MOCA allows the user to develop novel closure methods and can treat polynomial, non-polynomial, as well as time-dependent propensity functions, thus being applicable to virtually any chemical reaction system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

LA17-V-InverseRadTransportProblem-PD2Kb. Final Project Report

In the inverse radiation transport problem, a radiation signal emanating from an unknown object is used to reconstruct geometric and material parameters of the object , e.g., the mass of special nuclear material (SNM), the isotopic composition of the SNM (e.g., the enrichment of 235U), the thickness of shielding, etc. The inverse radiation transport problem is one of the most fundamental and important in the emergency response mission, and has been addressed in previous NA-22 and NA-42/84 investments by using derivative-free optimization methods. Our project was aimed at (i) consolidating previous work by applying polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for reducing significantly the number of forward model simulations required by derivative-free optimization methods; (ii) developing a general-purpose framework and stand-alone software for solving the inverse radiation transport problem by applying a new “predictive modeling” methodology (predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems, PM_CMPS) which enables the fusing of experimental and computational information; and (iii) developing several benchmarks (for unscattered gamma rays) for demonstrating the quantification of non-Gaussian features (e.g., skewness and kurtosis, which characterize asymmetries and long tails) of response distributions by deterministically and efficiently propagating parameter uncertainties (covariances and higher-order moments, where available) using high-order sensitivities computed by the recently developed comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (C-ASAM). With regard to (i), application of PCE, the most significant accomplishment of this project was an implementation of PCE into INVERSE that significantly reduced computation time for the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Differential Evolution (DE) methods. For inverse transport problems with measurements of neutron leakage, neutron multiplication, and neutron-induced gamma-rays, the solution times for the DREAM and DE methods were reduced by factors of 30-300, reducing run times from hours to minutes while maintaining the same accuracy as the standard (non-PCE) DREAM and DE. Speedups were further improved by exploring sparse grid quadrature sets using the Toolkit for Adaptive Stochastic Modeling and Non-Intrusive ApproximatioN (Tasmanian) toolset. An initial exploration of sparse grids indicated that further speedups factors of 5-10 are obtainable. The implementation of PCE in INVERSE is not in a form that users can easily access. With regard to (ii), solving the inverse problem using a predictive modeling paradigm, the most significant accomplishment of this project were the derivation and implementation of adjoint-based second derivatives in neutron and photon transport theory. There are two codes that compute these derivatives. SENSPG computes them for uncollided gamma rays and SENSMG computes them for neutron leakage. SENSMG is open-source code available on github. Other significant accomplishments included a stand-alone code, MULTI-PRED, that implements the predictive modeling paradigm, along with a detailed manual. The code was implemented in the existing INVERSE code for inverse problems, but a head-to-head comparison of inverse methods was not achieved. We also derived and implemented the capability to compute sensitivities for multiplicity measurements into the SENSMG code, and this capability was used in a data assimilation application, but it was not used for solving inverse problems. With regard to (iii), developing benchmarks to demonstrate the importance of high-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the most significant accomplishment of this project were two test problems that showed how important second-order sensitivities are.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SURROGATE MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION FOR RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF REACTOR PRESSURE VESSELS

In nuclear light water reactors (LWRs), the reactor coolant, core and shroud are contained within a massive, thick walled steel vessel known as a reactor pressure vessel (RPV). Given the tremendous size of these structures, RPVs typically contain a large population of pre-existing flaws introduced in the manufacturing process. After many years of operation, irradiation-induced embrittlement makes these vessels increasingly susceptible to fracture initiation at the locations of the pre-existing flaws. Because of the uncertainty in the loading conditions, flaw characteristics and material properties, probabilistic methods are widely accepted and used in assessing RPV integrity. The Fracture Analysis of Vessels – Oak Ridge (FAVOR) computer program developed by researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is widely used for this purpose. This program can be used in order to perform deterministic and probabilistic risk-informed analyses of the structural integrity of an RPV subjected to a range of thermal-hydraulic events. FAVOR uses a one-dimensional representation of the global response of the RPV, which is appropriate for the beltline region, which experiences the most embrittlement, and employs an influence coefficient technique to rapidly compute stress intensity factors for axis-aligned surface-breaking flaws. The Grizzly code is currently under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to be used as a general multiphysics simulation tool to study a variety of degradation mechanisms in nuclear power plant components. The first application of Grizzly has been to study fracture in embrittled RPVs. Grizzly can be used to model the thermo-mechanical response of an RPV under transient conditions observed in a pressurized thermal shock (PTS) scenario. The global response of the vessel provides boundary conditions for local 3D models of the material in the vicinity of a flaw. Fracture domain integrals are computed to obtain stress intensity factors, which can in turn be used to assess whether a fracture would initiate at a pre-existing flaw. To use Grizzly for probabilistic analysis, it is necessary to have a way to rapidly evaluate stress intensity factors. To accomplish this goal, a reduced order model (ROM) has been developed to efficiently represent the behavior of a detailed 3D Grizzly model used to calculate fracture parameters. This approach uses the stress intensity factor influence coefficient method that has been used with great success in FAVOR. Instead of interpolating between tabulated solutions, as FAVOR does, the ROM approach uses a response surface methodology to compute fracture solutions based on a sampled set of results used to train the ROM. The main advantages of this approach are that the process of generating the training data can be fully automated, and the procedure can be readily used to consider more general flaw configurations. This paper demonstrates the procedure used to generate a ROM to rapidly compute stress intensity factors for axis-aligned flaws. The results from this procedure are in good agreement with those produced using the traditional influence coefficient interpolation procedure, which gives confidence in this method. This paves the way for applying this procedure for more general flaw configurations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for multicomponent CALPHAD model optimization and uncertainty quantification

CALPHAD model parameter optimization is inherently challenging due to non-smooth objective functions, high-dimensional parameter spaces, and the need for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional weighted nonlinear least squares approaches are computationally efficient but local, whereas black-box global optimizers and ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide broader exploration at substantial computational cost. The objective of this work is to combine the global exploration capability of gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo – specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) – with local deterministic refinement using BFGS to efficiently optimize multicomponent CALPHAD models with minimal manual intervention. Analytic gradients are computed via the Jansson derivative framework. The methodology is demonstrated on the Cr—Fe binary system and extended to the Cr—Fe—Ni ternary system with 32 degrees of freedom. For Cr—Fe, NUTS achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to ensemble MCMC while requiring over an order-of-magnitude fewer likelihood evaluations. Parameter uncertainties are quantified through NUTS sampling and propagated to thermodynamic observables using local expansion, demonstrating a novel modular approach that combines binary and ternary parameter subsets without requiring global relaxation. These results establish gradient-informed exploration as a scalable strategy for multicomponent CALPHAD optimization and provide a practical route towards efficient higher-order database development with quantified uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Communication: A mean field platform for excited state quantum chemistry

We present a mean field theory for excited states that is broadly analogous to ground state Hartree-Fock theory. Like Hartree-Fock, our approach is deterministic, state-specific, applies a variational principle to a minimally correlated ansatz, produces energy stationary points, relaxes the orbital basis, has a Fock-build cost-scaling, and can serve as the foundation for correlation methods such as perturbation theory and coupled cluster theory. To emphasize this last point, we pair our mean field approach with an excited state analog of second order Møller-Plesset theory and demonstrate that in water, formaldehyde, neon, and stretched lithium fluoride, the resulting accuracy far exceeds that of configuration interaction singles and rivals that of equation of motion coupled cluster.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression Method for Probabilistic Wind Farm Power Curve Estimation

Accurate estimation of the power curve for wind turbines or wind farms is crucial to ensure their efficient operation and management. However, conventional methods for power curve estimation rely either on expensive and infrequent measurements or on low-quality numerical simulations. Moreover, the majority of previous studies on power curve estimation for wind turbines or wind farms focused on deterministic estimation, which provides a point estimate of the relationship between wind speed and power generation. Nevertheless, the deterministic approach fails to consider the inherent uncertainty associated with wind energy production resulting from varying turbine characteristics. This can lead to inaccurate power generation estimation and suboptimal decisions regarding energy management. In this paper, a kernel density estimation (KDE) based Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression (MFGPR) model is proposed to fuse theoretical power curve data and the ground true measurements to create a mapping of wind speed and wind power. By conducting a case study on an actual wind farm in China, the efficacy of the proposed MFGPR model was demonstrated in characterizing the variability of wind power. The probabilistic MFGPR model was also able to generate confidence intervals that encompassed the measured power, thereby improving the accuracy and confidence in wind power estimation or wind resource assessment. Overall, the proposed MFGPR model offers a reliable approach to integrate high-fidelity ground measurements and theoretical power curve data, resulting in precise wind resource assessment and power estimation.

Gaussian process regression↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO2 Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit

This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators: Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power time series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

SSA Monte Carlo and Master Equation Modeling of Neutron Leakage Distributions

Strongly stochastic neutron populations in highly subcritical multiplying media containing weak spontaneous fission sources are unique indicators of the presence of SNM. For instance, in neutron multiplicity counting, an extended tail in the count number probability distribution is observed that is a characteristic of and sensitive to the amount of SNM present. Theoretical modeling and efficient computation of stochastic neutron distributions are complementary to experimental measurements and moreover shed light on the fundamental interactions and transport processes that underlie nuclear signatures. Modeling approaches that are intermediate between gross-system level models and high-fidelity but computationally demanding Monte Carlo simulations are of particular interest in this regard. Furthermore we present three advances on existing work in point kinetic or lumped geometry: (i) implementation of the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA), a system state-updating Monte Carlo method that is more e cient than single-event Monte Carlo in lumped geometries, (ii) application of the backward Master equation to obtain time-gated count moments, and (iii) reconstructing the count number distribution from the deterministically computed moments using a generalized Laguerre polynomial expansion.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗