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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

PKS 2155-304 relativistically beamed synchrotron radiation from BL LAC object

The newly discovered BL Lacertae object, PKS 2155-304, was observed with the medium and high intensity energy detectors of the HEAO-1 A2 experiment. The variability by a factor of two in less than a day reported by Snyder, et al (1979) is confirmed. Two spectra, obtained a year apart, while the satellite was in scanning mode, are well fit by simple power laws with energy spectral index alpha sub 1 equals approximately 1.4. A third spectrum, of higher statistical quality, obtained while the satellite was pointed at its source, has has two components. An acceptable fit was obtained using a two power law model, with indices alpha sub 1 equals 2.0 (+1.2, -0.6) and alpha sub 2 equals -1.5 (+1.5, -2.3). An interpretation of the overall spectrum from radio through X-rays in terms of a synchrotron self-Compton model gives a good description of the data if allowance is made for relativistic beaming. Thus, from a consideration of the spectrum, combined with an estimate of the size of the source, the presence of jets is inferred without their observation.

Urry, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Estimating Cosmic-Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses with Detector Design Implications

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index (alpha-1) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy (E(sub k)) to a steeper spectral index alpha-2 > alpha-1 above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic density functional theory of polymers with salt in electric fields

Here we present a dynamic density functional theory for modeling the effects of applied electric fields on the local structure of polymers with added salt (polymer electrolytes). Time-dependent equations for the local electrostatic potential and volume fractions of polymer, cation, and anion of added salt are developed using the principles of linear irreversible thermodynamics. For such a development, a field theoretic description of the free energy of polymer melts doped with salts is used, which captures the effects of local variations in the dielectric function. Connections of the dynamic density functional theory with experiments are established by relating the three phenomenological Onsager’s transport coefficients of the theory to the mutual diffusion of electrolyte, ionic conductivity, and transference number of one of the ions. The theory is connected with a statistical mechanical model developed by Bearman and Kirkwood [J. Chem. Phys. 28, 136 (1958)] after relating the three transport coefficients to friction coefficients. The steady-state limit of the dynamic density functional theory is used to understand the effects of dielectric inhomogeneity on the phase separation in polymer electrolytes. The theory developed here provides not only a way to connect with experiments but also to develop multi-scale models for studying connections between local structure and ion transport in polymer electrolytes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1989

A laboratory investigation into microwave backscattering from sea ice

The sources of scattering of artificial sea ice were determined, backscatter measurements semi-quantitatively were compared with theoretical predictions, and inexpensive polarimetric radars were developed for sea ice backscatter studies. A brief review of the dielectric properties of sea ice and of commonly used surface and volume scattering theories is presented. A description is provided of the backscatter measurements performed and experimental techniques used. The development of inexpensive short-range polarimetric radars is discussed. The steps taken to add polarimetric capability to a simple FM-W radar are considered as are sample polarimetric phase measurements of the radar. Ice surface characterization data and techniques are discussed, including computation of surface rms height and correlation length and air bubble distribution statistics. A method is also presented of estimating the standard deviation of rms height and correlation length for cases of few data points. Comparisons were made of backscatter measurements and theory. It was determined that backscatter from an extremely smooth saline ice surface at C band cannot be attributed only to surface scatter. It was found that snow cover had a significant influence on backscatter from extremely smooth saline ice at C band.

Bredow, Jonathan W.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Some comparison of ECMWF 3b and GFDL 3b analyses in the tropics

Owing to the problems that data assimilation procedures have in analyzing data in the tropics and to the apparent differences in the descriptions of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) assimilation suites, a brief comparison was done of the resulting analyses in the tropics. Three cases each were selected for Standard Operating Procedures 1 and 2 at the 200 and 850 mb levels, the wind fields for 25 deg N 25 deg S were partitioned into a rotational and divergent component, and various statistics of each were calculated.

Julian, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Estimating Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameters From Simulated Detector Responses With Detector Design Implications

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index alpha (sub 1), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy E(sub k) to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, L. W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intermittent Frontogenesis in the Alboran Sea

Abstract We present a phenomenological description and dynamical analysis of the Alboran fronts using a realistic simulation at submesoscale resolution. The study is focused on east Alboran fronts emerging within relatively strong flows that separate from the Spanish coast into the basin interior. Despite modest lateral shifting associated with the position of the Alboran anticyclonic gyres and variations in intensity, these fronts present a similar structure and dynamical configuration as the climatological Almeria–Oran front. The statistical analysis of our solution shows that strained-induced frontogenesis is a recurrent submesoscale mechanism associated with these fronts, and the process is assessed in terms of the advective Lagrangian frontogenetic tendencies associated with buoyancy and velocity horizontal gradients. Intermittency in their strength and patterns is indicative of high variability in the occurrence of active frontogenesis in association with the secondary (overturning) circulation across the frontal gradient. As a result, we find many episodes with strong surface fronts that do not have much associated downwelling. Frontogenesis and the associated secondary circulation are further explored during two particular frontal events, both showing strong downwelling of (1) cm s −1 extending down into the pycnocline. A frontogenetic contribution of turbulent vertical momentum mixing to the secondary circulation is identified in the easternmost region during the cold season, when the dynamics are strongly influenced by the intrusion of the salty Northern Current. The background vertical velocity fields observed during the analyzed events indicate other currents in the submesoscale range, including tidal and topographic internal waves.

Capó, Esther↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parametric and Nonparametric Models of U.S. Cost Overruns for Nuclear Power Plants

This study presents new data-driven models to estimate the effect of capacity on the percentage of cost overruns in the United States for nuclear power plant construction projects before and after the Three Mile Island accident. Parametric and nonparametric models have been developed that describe the significant shifts in nuclear energy costs during the dynamic environment. Employing a contemporary descriptive methodology and a quantitative analysis, we furnish a comprehensive overview of the alterations in cost overrun distribution and show the changes observed in other pivotal metrics alongside cost overruns. Our emphasis lies in documenting the fluctuations in cost overruns alongside nuclear reactor capacity levels and the increase of the overnight capital costs to build nuclear reactors. Our results show that increasing the size of nuclear reactors is not a factor statistically significant to decrease the percentage of cost overruns, and the probit model results provide evidence that an increase in size increases the probability of having cost overruns larger than 100% (double the estimated cost). We also compare our findings to two other regions: Asia and Europe.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Statistical mechanics of dilute liquid mixtures of He3 in He4

The Woo-Tan-Massey quantum-mechanical theory of dilute mixtures of He-3 in liquid He-4 is extended to incorporate superfluid flow. Then statistical-mechanical principles are employed to find explicit formulas for thermodyanmic and hydrodynamic properties of mixtures, such as internal energy, free energy, entropy, pressure, chemical potential, and normal-fluid and superfluid densities. This paper is the first in a planned series that applies methods originally developed for pure liquid He-4 to dilute mixtures as a means of establishing a comprehensive theory that includes a theoretical bridge between a microscopic description of the mixtures and a hydrodynamic two-fluid model. Ultimately effects of applied electric and magnetic fields on dilute solutions are also planned to be treated.

Jackson, H. W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Indian Ocean analyses

The background and goals of Indian Ocean thermal sampling are discussed from the perspective of a national project which has research goals relevant to variation of climate in Australia. The critical areas of SST variation are identified. The first goal of thermal sampling at this stage is to develop a climatology of thermal structure in the areas and a description of the annual variation of major currents. The sampling strategy is reviewed. Dense XBT sampling is required to achieve accurate, monthly maps of isotherm-depth because of the high level of noise in the measurements caused by aliasing of small scale variation. In the Indian Ocean ship routes dictate where adequate sampling can be achieved. An efficient sampling rate on available routes is determined based on objective analysis. The statistical structure required for objective analysis is described and compared at 95 locations in the tropical Pacific and 107 in the tropical Indian Oceans. XBT data management and quality control methods at CSIRO are reviewed. Results on the mean and annual variation of temperature and baroclinic structure in the South Equatorial Current and Pacific/Indian Ocean Throughflow are presented for the region between northwest Australia and Java-Timor. The mean relative geostrophic transport (0/400 db) of Throughflow is approximately 5 x 106 m3/sec. A nearly equal volume transport is associated with the reference velocity at 400 db. The Throughflow feeds the South Equatorial Current, which has maximum westward flow in August/September, at the end of the southeasterly Monsoon season. A strong semiannual oscillation in the South Java Current is documented. The results are in good agreement with the Semtner and Chervin (1988) ocean general circulation model. The talk concludes with comments on data inadequacies (insufficient coverage, timeliness) particular to the Indian Ocean and suggestions on the future role that can be played by Data Centers, particularly with regard to quality control of data as research bodies are replaced by operational bodies in the Global Ocean Observing System.

Meyers, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2017

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.

Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemb↗
NASA NTRS1979

Performance characteristics and statistics of a laser initiated microdetonator

The test results of 320 units of the laser initiated microdetonator are summarized. The commercially fabricated units used a lead styphnate/lead azide/HMX (1 mg/17.5 mg/13.5 mg) explosive train design contained in a miniature aluminum can and completed with a glass-metal seal window. The test parameters were the high and low laser energy, high and low temperature, laser pulse duration, laser wavelength and nuclear radiation (5 x 10 to the 6th rads of 1 MeV gamma ray). The performance parameters were the laser energy for ignition and the actuation response time. Included also is a description of the development of a flexible, continuously advanced train of explosive devices by using the units, miniature optics and fiber optics.

Yang, L. C.↗
NASA NTRS1971

South polar and equatorial differences in central peaked Martian craters.

Description of the results of a preliminary study of the distribution of central peaked Martian craters based on photographs taken by Mariner 6 and 7. The study provides information about the origin of these craters and about the geological processes occurring on the surface of Mars. It is pointed out that central peaks in Martian craters in the south polar region occur more frequently than their equatorial counterparts and the peak frequency statistics and crater morphologies imply that preferential peak production has taken place.

Cordell, B. M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining the Synthesis of the Lightest 𝑝 Nucleus 74 Se

We provide the first experimental cross section of the 73 As(p, γ) 74 Se reaction to constrain one of the main destruction mechanisms of the p nucleus 74 Se in explosive stellar environments. The measurement was done using a radioactive 73 As beam at incident energies of 3.1 and 3.7 MeV/nucleon. Along with the total cross section measurement, statistical properties of the 74 Se compound nucleus were extracted, constraining the reaction cross section across the entire Gamow window of the γ process. The impact of the experimentally constrained reaction rate on 74 Se production in Type II supernovae is investigated through Monte Carlo one-zone network simulations. The results indicate that the overproduction of 74 Se by Type II supernova models cannot be resolved by nuclear physics and point towards the description of the astrophysical conditions of the γ process.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantal diffusion description of isotope production via the multinucleon transfer mechanism in 48 Ca+ 238 U collisions

As an extension of previous work, we calculate the production cross section of heavy neutron-rich isotopes by employing the quantal diffusion description to 48 Ca+ 238 U collisions. The quantal diffusion is deduced from stochastic mean-field approach, and transport properties are determined in terms of time-dependent single-particle wave functions of the time-dependent Hartree-Fock theory. As a result, the approach allows for prediction of production cross sections without any adjustable parameters. Furthermore, the secondary cross sections by particle emission are calculated with the help of the statistical gemini++ code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Value of Data and Metadata Standardization for Interoperability in Giovanni Or: Why Your Product's Metadata Causes Us Headaches!

Giovanni is a data exploration and visualization tool at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC). It has been around in one form or another for more than 15 years. Giovanni calculates simple statistics and produces 22 different visualizations for more than 1600 geophysical parameters from more than 90 satellite and model products. Giovanni relies on external data format standards to ensure interoperability, including the NetCDF CF Metadata Conventions. Unfortunately, these standards were insufficient to make Giovanni's internal data representation truly simple to use. Finding and working with dimensions can be convoluted with the CF Conventions. Furthermore, the CF Conventions are silent on machine-friendly descriptive metadata such as the parameter's source product and product version. In order to simplify analyzing disparate earth science data parameters in a unified way, we developed Giovanni's internal standard. First, the format standardizes parameter dimensions and variables so they can be easily found. Second, the format adds all the machine-friendly metadata Giovanni needs to present our parameters to users in a consistent and clear manner. At a glance, users can grasp all the pertinent information about parameters both during parameter selection and after visualization.

interoperability↗
NASA NTRS1987

The classification of wind shears from the point of view of aerodynamics and flight mechanics

A study of international statistical data shows that in about three quarters of all serious accidents which occurred with jet propelled airliners wind shear was either one of the main causes of the accident or represented a major contributory cause. Wind shear related problems are examined. The necessity of a use of different concepts, definitions, and divisions is explained, and the concepts and definitions required for the division of wind and wind shear into different categories is discussed. A description of the context between meteorological and aerodynamics-flight mechanics concepts, definitions, and divisions is also provided. Attention is given to wind and wind components, general characteristics of wind shear and the meteorological terms, the basic types of wind shear for aerodynamics-flight mechanics investigations, special types of wind shear for aerodynamics-flight mechanics investigations, and possibilities regarding a change of the wind component.

Seidler, Fritz↗