Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “demand modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 541 records · Page 30

Machine-learning modeling of magnetization dynamics in quasi-equilibrium and driven metallic spin systems

Here, we present a perspective on recent progress in machine-learning (ML) force-field approaches for large-scale Landau–Lifshitz–Gilbert (LLG) simulations of metallic spin systems. Building on a generalization of the Behler–Parrinello (BP) architecture originally developed for quantum molecular dynamics, we develop scalable and transferable ML models that faithfully capture the complex, environment-dependent electron-mediated exchange fields characteristic of itinerant magnets. A central ingredient of this framework is the implementation of symmetry-aware magnetic descriptors based on group-theoretical bispectrum formalisms. Leveraging these ML force fields, LLG simulations faithfully reproduce hallmark non-collinear magnetic orders—such as the 120° and tetrahedral states—on the triangular lattice, and successfully capture the complex spin textures emerging in the mixed-phase states of a square-lattice double-exchange model under thermal quench. We further discuss a generalized potential theory that extends the BP formalism to incorporate both conservative and nonconservative electronic torques, thereby enabling ML models to learn nonequilibrium exchange fields from computationally demanding microscopic approaches such as nonequilibrium Green’s-function techniques. This extension yields quantitatively accurate predictions of voltage-driven domain-wall motion and establishes a foundation for quantum-accurate, multiscale modeling of nonequilibrium spin dynamics and spintronic functionalities.

Descriptors↗

An integrated supply chain analysis for cobalt and rare earth elements under global electrification and constrained resources

As global electrification becomes more prominent, demand is projected to increase for electric vehicles (EVs), their components (EV batteries, rare earth traction motors), and their raw materials (cobalt, rare earths). To analyze the supply chain constraints associated with these components and raw materials, a system dynamics model was developed to simulate the interactions between the rare earth and cobalt supply chains. The results showed that under current understanding of raw material resources, production of the projected volume of EVs could be inadequate. To meet the aggressive EV volume sale projections set by the International Energy Agency, EV manufacturers will need to implement a large portion of traction motors without rare earths and utilize non-cobalt batteries as much as possible. On the supply side, a much faster ramp-up than what being modeled would be needed to meet much higher demand than current market forecasts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Wetter Summers Mitigated Temperature Stress on Rocky Mountain Forests During the Last Interglacial Warm Period

Recent droughts have highlighted concerns of how rising summer temperatures will increase tree mortality rates across the western United States. We analyzed subfossil wood samples from Colorado dating to the last interglacial to assess the response of two common conifers to a previous warm period. The trees experienced comparable growth rates and water use efficiency during the interglacial relative to modern despite evidence from model simulations of a ~30% increase in evaporative demand during the peak of the growing season. High-resolution isotopic analysis of the wood samples show an enrichment in the late season cellulosic δ 18 O relative to modern samples, which we find was associated with increased reliance on summer rain. The data are consistent with model simulations showing the interglacial was associated with wetter summers across the western US. Here, we propose enhanced summer rain during this period compensated for drought stress imposed by higher evaporative demand.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

A deep learning-based workflow for fast prediction of 3D state variables in geological carbon storage: A dimension reduction approach

Deep learning (DL) models are extensively used as surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of multiphase fluid flow in porous media at large scales, enabling fast forecasts of the spatial–temporal evolution of three-dimensional (3D) state variables in geological carbon storage (GCS). However, training these models in high-dimensional space remains computationally demanding and prone to overfitting because of limited training data. This paper presents a novel workflow to address these challenges by integrating dimension reduction (DR) methods. Here, the proposed workflow employed pre-trained DR models to extract the latent variables of geological models and state variables and utilized the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for constructing mapping functions between the input and output variables in latent spaces. Subsequently, the pre-trained reconstruction models converted the MLP-predicted latent state variables to their original high-dimensional form. Furthermore, we proposed a novel strategy for the DR and reconstruction of 3D saturation fields to account for the unique data characteristics of sparsity, nonuniformity, and discontinuity. The proposed strategy applied PCA and inverse PCA for 2D average saturation fields and developed a DL-based 3D reconstruction model, leveraging three 2D average saturation fields as input to produce a 3D saturation field as output. The pre-training of DR and reconstruction models and training of MLP models were conducted on 84 Gulf of Mexico (GoM) simulations and evaluated on 12 testing simulations. Each simulation contained 720 monthly time steps, with the first 360 months as the injection period and the rest as the post-injection period. The proposed workflow, incorporating DR and DL models, accurately predicts the normalized 3D pressure fields, achieving mean square error (MSE) of 2.92 × 10 -7 compared to the ground truth obtained from a full-physics simulator. Furthermore, the proposed strategy outperformed PCA and convolutional autoencoder (CAE) models on 3D saturation fields, resulting in minor workflow prediction errors with an MSE of 2.93 × 10 -5 . The results suggest the proposed workflow provides sufficient predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, and enables a speedup of 160 times compared to the full-physics simulator, facilitating improved decision-making and risk assessment for large-scale GCS management in real-time scenarios.

3D reconstruction model↗

Control oriented model order reduction for the hydraulic system of an autonomous wheel loader

Control design for an autonomous wheel loader requires a high-fidelity and low-order dynamics model. The objective of order reduction is to decrease the number of states in the model while maintaining performance comparable to the original model. Of all the power components in a wheel loader, the model order reduction for steering and working hydraulic systems is most demanding due to its nonlinear and stiff dynamical nature. This paper describes a physics-inspired model order reduction method that can reduce the model order by close to thirty percent. It is achieved by discarding orders with fast dynamics and consolidating multiple states into less new states. Furthermore, this method can also be extended to other types of off-road vehicles such as excavators, bulldozers, etc. Simulation results demonstrate that the reduced-order model exhibits very similar performance to the full-order model under typical operating conditions of wheel loaders, with an output error of less than six percent.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integrating Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure into Commercial Buildings and Mixed-Use Communities: Design, Modeling, and Control Optimization Opportunities: Preprint

This paper discusses modeling and field studies of controlled EV charging that have been performed with the goal of minimizing requirements for infrastructure upgrades, minimizing building peak demand charges, and maximizing the use of on-site generation. We present a large-scale workplace charging pilot of a demand-controlled scheduled EV charging system with over 250 active daily commuters, successfully demonstrating management of aggregate charging power to avoid new infrastructure investments, mitigate peak demand charges, and provide cost-effective workplace charging to users. In addition to understanding opportunities for demand management, integrating these controllable loads into the energy modeling process for new buildings will also be necessary. This paper then presents an example energy modeling process that evaluates the potential effects of EV charging on building load profiles and infrastructure requirements for a mixed-use community. Finally, we discuss an illustration of how EV charging can be controlled to be synergistic with other building loads and distributed generation.

buildings↗

Heavy-Duty Low-Temperature and Diesel Combustion & Heavy-Duty Combustion Modeling (FY 2018 Annual Progress Report)

Regulatory drivers and market demands for lower pollutant emissions, lower carbon dioxide emissions, and lower fuel consumption motivate the development of clean and fuel-efficient engine operating strategies. Most current production engines use a combination of both in-cylinder and exhaust emission control strategies to achieve these goals. The emissions and efficiency performance of in-cylinder strategies depend strongly on flow and mixing processes associated with fuel injection. Both heavy- and light-duty engine/vehicle manufacturers use multiple-injection strategies to reduce noise, emissions, and fuel consumption. For both conventional and low-temperature diesel combustion, the state of knowledge and modeling tools for multiple injections are far less advanced than for single-injection strategies. Engine efficiency is limited to some degree by tradeoffs that must be accepted to meet particulate matter (including soot) emissions limits. Recent work on this project has filled some knowledge gaps on soot oxidation with multiple injections, and the current work for Fiscal Year (FY) 2018 addresses knowledge gaps on soot formation for multiple injections. While total in-cylinder soot is readily measured, discerning formation from oxidation is difficult. The FY 2018 experiments are designed to create in-cylinder conditions at the threshold of soot formation, where processes that affect soot formation can be more readily discerned. Soot formation pathways under such conditions are fraught with uncertainties, and soot models significantly overpredict polyaromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) and soot, so experimental data at these conditions will provide much needed data for improvements to PAH and soot models.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Test of Functional Balance Theory for Wetland Biomass Allocation in a Global Change Experiment

Abstract Forecasts of root growth and carbon sequestration under global change are compromised by uncertainty in how plants will allocate biomass between above and belowground pools. Here, we develop a simple model to assess whether functional balance theory can explain a complex biomass allocation response observed in a brackish marsh under experimental warming and elevated CO 2 . Our model shows how treatment‐driven changes in nitrogen supply and demand can explain divergent observations of root growth (i.e., maximum responses under intermediate warming and elevated CO 2 ). The model also reveals a surprising interaction between warming and eutrophication, where enhanced N loading to coastal marshes may reduce adverse impacts of warming on root growth. Our findings provide a mechanistic basis for incorporating biomass allocation into forecast models of marsh evolution. They also provide a general example of using ecological theory to decompose complex net responses observed in multi‐factor global change experiments into constituent processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Hierarchical Optimization Method for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Aircraft Network Design

Electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOLs) are expected to serve urban air mobility in a station-to-station configuration, which makes the optimal network design of eVTOL stations a critical question to explore. Existing approaches often face limitations, such as the inability to interact station locations with demand or difficulty in finding the optimal solution for large study regions. Here, this paper first proposes a mathematical model to generate optimal eVTOL station locations while considering associated potential eVTOL demand, and then proposes a heuristic algorithm, Hierarchical Optimization MEthod (HOME), to efficiently solve the model. With a case study of Southern California, HOME was compared to 1) directly solving the original integer linear programming-based network design problem, and 2) employing the widely used genetic algorithm. Results suggest that HOME can find optimal solutions with limited computational resources. The proposed framework powered by HOME provides a computationally efficient way to support urban air mobility planning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Facility Location Optimization Model for COVID-19 Resources

In response to anticipated resource shortfalls related to the treatment and testing of COVID-19, many communities are planning to build additional facilities to increase capacity. These facilities include field hospitals, testing centers, mobile manufacturing units, and distribution centers. In many cases, these facilities are intended to be temporary and are designed to meet an immediate need. When deciding where to place new facilities many factors need to be considered, including the feasibility of potential locations, existing resource availability, anticipated demand, and accessibility between patients and the new facility. In this project, a facility location optimization model was developed to integrate these key pieces of information to help decision makers identify the best place, or places, to build a facility to meet anticipated resource demands. The facility location optimization model uses the location of existing resources and the anticipated resource demand at each location to minimize the distance a patient must travel to get to the resource they need. The optimization formulation is presented below. The model was designed to operate at the county scale, where patients are grouped per county. This assumption can be modified to integrate other scales or include individual patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sizing Energy Storage System for Energy Arbitrage in Extreme Fast Charging Station

This paper proposes a non-linear programming (NLP) model to optimally size the energy storage system (ESS) and obtain an optimal energy management for energy arbitrage of an extreme fast charging station (XFCS) for electric vehicles (EVs), with minimized total cost of XFCS operation and ESS investment. Different from most reported work on sizing the ESS for EV charging stations, this paper proposes a pragmatic approach to model the ESS life degradation and accurately count the ESS cycles. Moreover, this work incorporates the peak demand charges in the operational cost of the charging station which are often overlooked in the literature. The proposed model is formulated and solved using AIMMS. Finally, a thorough sensitivity analysis is performed to offer insights into how different input parameters impact the ESS sizing and savings from the energy arbitrage perspective.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Performance Assessment of a Dual-purpose HP-TES for a Typical Year Comparing Different Climate Zones

Complete electrification of heating and cooling systems in the United States would overload the existing electrical grid. To this end, recent research efforts have focused on energy storage as one way to reduce ever-increasing peak electricity demands. One such technology is heat pump integrated thermal-energy storage (HP-TES) systems, which can enable load-shifting and reduce demand during peak hours. In this work, a Modelica model of a 4-Ton, dual-mode (heating and cooling) HP-TES system using a room-temperature phase-change material (PCM) integrated through a secondary hydronic loop was developed and simulated for a typical meteorological year in Riverside, CA (ASHRAE Climate Zone 2B), and Chicago, IL (ASHRAE Climate Zone 5A), for a DOE small office prototype building. The COP improvement and demand reduction were analyzed during the time-of-use peak hours along with the required recharge cycle energy demand. A typical summer in Riverside, CA resulted in model-predicted peak COP increases of 50 – 100% compared to the baseline heat pump, especially at higher outdoor temperatures, coupled with maximum peak energy reductions of 22%. During shoulder and winter season simulations, heating energy savings were higher as outdoor temperatures dropped below the PCM phase change temperature. For Chicago, IL, backup heating was necessary to meet the required system capacity for very cold ambient conditions, resulting in winter peak energy savings between 16 – 60% when accounting for backup heating requirements. The recharge energy was found to be mostly below the baseline HP energy during the peak. With improved component selections and controls, the recharge energy may be reduced. The outcomes from the simulations can provide first-order estimates for potential peak energy savings, challenges, and required controls in any location before conducting any field testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Modeling the Water Systems of the Western US to Support Climate‐Resilient Electricity System Planning

Abstract Electricity and water systems in the Western US (WUS) are closely connected, with hydropower comprising 20% of total annual WUS generation, and electricity related to water comprising about 7% of total WUS electricity use. Because of these interdependencies, the threat of climate change to WUS resources will likely have compounding electricity impacts on the Western Interconnect grid. This study describes a WUS‐wide water system model with a particular emphasis on estimating climate impacts on hydropower generation and water‐related electricity use, which can be linked with a grid expansion model to support climate‐resilient electricity planning. The water system model combines climatically‐driven physical hydrology and management of both water supply and demand allocation, and is applied to an ensemble of 15 climate scenarios out to 2050. Model results show decreasing streamflow in key basins of the WUS under most scenarios. Annual water‐related electricity use increases up to 4%, and by up to 6% during the summer months, driven by growing agricultural demands met increasingly through a shift toward energy‐intensive groundwater to replace declining surface water. Total annual hydropower generation changes by +5% to −20% by mid‐century but declines in most scenarios, with decreases in summer generation by up to nearly −30%. Water‐related electricity use increases tend to coincide with hydropower generation declines, annually and seasonally, demonstrating the importance of concurrently evaluating the climate signal on both water‐for‐energy and energy‐for‐water to inform planning for grid reliability and decarbonization goals.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Machine Learned Force Field Modeling of Metal Organic Frameworks for CO2 Direct Air Capture

Metal organic frameworks (MOFs) are a large class of porous materials and have garnered significant interest due to their large surface areas and their tunable physical and chemical properties. Numerous prior studies have been performed to screen large databases of this material class for promising DAC sorbent materials. These studies have often relied on classical model potentials. While density functional theory (DFT) calculations have been shown to be very accurate for modeling the interaction of CO2 with MOFs, such calculations are too computationally demanding for statistically significant adsorption predictions. To overcome this barrier, we developed methods for training models to achieve DFT-level accuracy for the forces and energies associated with MOF flexibility and CO2 adsorption using machine learned force fields (MLFFs). These methods were parametrized based on DFT calculations of CO2 in a flexible MOF and used to predict MOF structural properties as well as CO2 adsorption in several MOFs.

Findley, John↗

Optimizing design and dispatch of a renewable energy system

Renewable energy technologies are becoming increasingly important due to their cost-competitiveness, and because of enhanced climate concerns. We demonstrate the capabilities of an integer-programming optimization model that minimizes capital (investment) and operational costs, and utility charges, while adhering to system sizing constraints, demand requirements, and interoperability characteristics of the systems chosen. Furthermore, the model recommends an optimally sized mix of renewable energy, conventional generation, and energy storage technologies, while simultaneously optimizing the corresponding dispatch strategy. Our case studies explore several venues, i.e., a small campus and a local hospital, with complex utility rate tariffs, multi-technology integration opportunities, and incentives for renewable power production. Using an optimization model, versus applying rules of thumb, can produce millions of dollars in savings over a 25-year time horizon and result in thousands of kilowatts of installed renewable energy.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Hydropower representation in water and energy system models: a review of divergences and call for reconciliation

Abstract Reservoir-based hydropower systems represent key interactions between water and energy systems and are being transformed under policy initiatives driven by increasing water and energy demand, the desire to reduce environmental impacts, and interacting effects of climate change. Such policies are often guided by complex system models, whereby divergence in system representations can potentially translate to incompatible planning outcomes, thereby undermining any planning that may rely on them. We review different approaches and assumptions in hydropower representation in water and energy systems. While the models and issues are relevant globally, the review focuses on applications in California given its extensive development of energy and water models for policy planning, but discusses the extent to which these observations apply to other regions. Structurally, both water-driven and energy-driven management models are similar. However, in energy models, hydropower is often represented as a single-priority output. Water management models typically allocate water for competing priorities, which are generally uninformed by dynamic electricity load demand, and often result in a lower priority for hydropower. In water models, constraints are increasingly resolved for non-energy components (e.g. inflow hydrology and non-energy water demand); few analogues exist for energy models. These limitations may result in inadequate representations of each respective sector, and vastly different planning outcomes for the same facilities between the two different sectors. These divergent modeling approaches manifest themselves in California where poorly reconciled outcomes may affect decisions in hydropower licensing, electricity grid flexibility and decarbonization, and planning for environmental water. Fully integrated water-energy models are computationally intensive and specific to certain regions, but better representation of each domain in respective efforts would help reconcile divergences in planning and management efforts related to hydropower across energy and water systems.

Rheinheimer, David E. (ORCID:0000000315259069)↗