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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Stoichiometrically-informed symbolic regression for extracting chemical reaction mechanisms from data

A data-driven computational method is introduced to extract chemical reaction mechanisms from time series chemical concentration data. It is realized through the use of dynamic symbolic regression in which a sparse analytical form for a dynamical system is discoverable from the underlying data. We specifically develop the stoichiometrically-informed symbolic regression (SISR) method to address a standing challenge in complex chemical reaction networks: given a time-series dataset of concentrations of several components, what is the mechanism and the associated rate constants? SISR finds the optimal mechanism, kinetic equations and rate constants by combining differential optimization with a genetic optimization approach that searches a symbolic space of possible reaction mechanisms. Use of SISR in several paradigmatic examples spanning linear and nonlinear reaction schemes results in excellent agreement between true and predicted mechanisms, including when the method is applied to noisy data. The advantages of a stoichiometrically-informed approach such as SISR to address reaction discovery is illustrated through comparison with the use of generic state-of-the-art data-driven approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Status, Challenges, and Plans for Consistent Modeling and Evaluation of Fission Data: Nubar, PFNS, and FPY [Slides]

This presentation discusses the importance of consistent evaluations for fission observables. Currently, prompt fission quantities (e.g., neutron multiplicity, neutron energy spectrum, and fission product yields) are evaluated independently of one another, either with separate models or data-only/non-model evaluations (few – if any – shared model inputs) and inconsistencies can arise in evaluated data (e.g. NSE 190, 258 (2018)). They have found that consistent, model-based evaluations lead to more physical constraints on free parameters in the model, more robust predictions for other observables and other isotopes, that there are correlations between the uncertainties on different observables, and that uncertainties can be propagated to unmeasured quantities. They are working on developing models to the point where fission observables are calculated at the quality needed for an evaluation. They are striving to consistently calculate fission observables, such as $\bar{v}$, PFNS, and FPY, to a quality suitable for an evaluation. Current evaluations for fission observables use separate models for each observable (with minimal shared input) or are purely data driven. LANL models, such as the Monte Carlo CGMF and deterministic BeoH, have different strengths; the similar fission fragment initial conditions and decay models leads to consistency between the two codes (FPY can be connected to $\bar{v}$ and PFNS, even when calculated by different codes). Work is underway by Lovell to optimize the models and Neudecker is working to perform detailed uncertainty quantification. The PFNS, in particular, presents a significant challenge.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-modal Energy-optimal Trip Scheduling in Real-time (METS-R) for Transportation Hubs (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under the award number EE0008524. The project develops the Multi-modal Energy-optimal Trip Scheduling in Real-time (METS-R) platform as the next-generation transportation solution based on autonomous electric vehicles (AEV) serving passenger trips from and to urban transportation hubs, to substantially reduce transportation energy consumption. Extensive data collection and analyses were first conducted to understand the demand patterns and energy consumption of hub-based on-road trips. Then, a data-driven framework that consists of an analytical module and a simulation module was proposed. For the analytical module, five planning + operation tools were developed to support the planning and energy-efficient operations of urban AEV services: the charging station planning that robotically allocates charging supplies based on the stationary charging demand distribution; the transit planning and demand adaptive scheduling model that efficiently generates\ candidate transit routes from hubs to other places and dynamically adjusts the transit time table to fit the current demand; the online energy-efficient routing that learns the energy-optimal paths from observations of link-level energy consumption in real-time; the hub-based ridesharing that matches trip requests together with account for the uncertainty of future trip demand and vehicle supply; and finally, the integrated demand prediction and anomaly detection pipeline that leverages the flight/train time table and support other planning/operation tools. To demonstrate the performance of these tools, a scalable high-performance agent-based simulator was built. We divided the urban space into multiple service zones where each zone was considered as an agent for passenger generation and vehicle charging. Two types of AEV agents were coded to model two types of mobility services: AEV taxi and AEV transit. For the AEV taxi, the team implemented the functions of pickup/drop-off passengers, energy-efficient routing, ridesharing, fleet rebalancing, and recharging. For the AEV bus, the team implemented the functions of demand-adaptive route scheduling, passenger boarding, and recharging. A high-performance computing framework was introduced to receive various profiling information (such as link energy updates, vehicle speed) from the simulator instances and communicate the operational commands back to the instances. The numerical experiments show that each of the proposed operational algorithms can reduce energy consumption and improve system efficiency. Furthermore, there exists the need to collectively consider multiple planning + operational strategies as multiple strategies can influence each other in terms of performance impacts. Recommendations for future work related to AEV planning and simulation are discussed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Chance-Constrained Design of Voltage Droop Control for Distribution Networks: Preprint

This paper addresses the design of local control methods for voltage control in distribution networks with high level of distributed energy resources (DERs). The designed control methods adapt the active and reactive power output of distributed energy resources proportional to the deviation of the local measured voltage magnitudes from a reference voltage, which is referred to as droop control. Thus, the design focuses on determining the droop characteristics which satisfy network-wide voltage magnitude constraints. The uncertainty and variability of DERs renders the design of optimal droop controls very challenging. Hence, this paper proposes chance constraints to limit the risk from intermittent DERs, by designing droop control coefficients that guarantee the satisfaction of network operational constraints with a specific probability. In addition, the proposed approach relies entirely on historical data rather than assuming knowledge of the probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty of DERs. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated on a 37-bus distribution feeder.

chance-constrained optimization↗
NASA NTRS2010

Evaluation of Anomaly Detection Capability for Ground-Based Pre-Launch Shuttle Operations

This chapter will provide a thorough end-to-end description of the process for evaluation of three different data-driven algorithms for anomaly detection to select the best candidate for deployment as part of a suite of IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) technologies. These algorithms were deemed to be sufficiently mature enough to be considered viable candidates for deployment in support of the maiden launch of Ares I-X, the successor to the Space Shuttle for NASA's Constellation program. Data-driven algorithms are just one of three different types being deployed. The other two types of algorithms being deployed include a "nile-based" expert system, and a "model-based" system. Within these two categories, the deployable candidates have already been selected based upon qualitative factors such as flight heritage. For the rule-based system, SHINE (Spacecraft High-speed Inference Engine) has been selected for deployment, which is a component of BEAM (Beacon-based Exception Analysis for Multimissions), a patented technology developed at NASA's JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and serves to aid in the management and identification of operational modes. For the "model-based" system, a commercially available package developed by QSI (Qualtech Systems, Inc.), TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System) has been selected for deployment to aid in diagnosis. In the context of this particular deployment, distinctions among the use of the terms "data-driven," "rule-based," and "model-based," can be found in. Although there are three different categories of algorithms that have been selected for deployment, our main focus in this chapter will be on the evaluation of three candidates for data-driven anomaly detection. These algorithms will be evaluated upon their capability for robustly detecting incipient faults or failures in the ground-based phase of pre-launch space shuttle operations, rather than based oil heritage as performed in previous studies. Robust detection will allow for the achievement of pre-specified minimum false alarm and/or missed detection rates in the selection of alert thresholds. All algorithms will also be optimized with respect to an aggregation of these same criteria. Our study relies upon the use of Shuttle data to act as was a proxy for and in preparation for application to Ares I-X data, which uses a very similar hardware platform for the subsystems that are being targeted (TVC - Thrust Vector Control subsystem for the SRB (Solid Rocket Booster)).

Martin, Rodney Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind and structural loads data measured on parabolic trough solar collectors at an operational power plant

Abstract Wind loading is a primary contributor to structural design costs of concentrating solar-thermal power collectors, such as heliostats and parabolic troughs. These structures must resist the mechanical forces generated by turbulent wind, while the reflector surfaces must maintain optimal optical performance. Studying wind-driven loads at a full-scale, operational concentrating solar-thermal power plant provides insights into the wind impact on the solar collector field beyond the capabilities of wind tunnel tests or state-of-the-art simulations. We conducted comprehensive field measurements of the atmospheric turbulent wind conditions and the resulting structural wind loads on parabolic troughs at the Nevada Solar One plant over a two-year period. The measurement setup included meteorological masts and structural load sensors on four trough rows. Additionally, a lidar scanned the horizontal plane above the trough field. In this study, we describe the high-resolution dataset characterizing the complex flow field and resulting structural loads. This first-of-its-kind dataset will enhance the understanding of wind loading on collector structures and will help in designing the next-generation solar collectors and photovoltaic trackers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale scenarios of electric vehicle charging with a data-driven model of control

Transportation electrification is forecast to bring millions of new electric vehicles to roads worldwide this decade. Planning to support those vehicles depends on detailed scenarios of their electricity demand in both uncontrolled and controlled or smart charging scenarios. In this work, we present a novel modeling approach to enable rapid generation of demand estimates that represent the impact of controlled charging for large-scale scenarios with millions of individual drivers. To model the effect of load modulation control on aggregate charging profiles, we propose a novel machine learning approach that replaces traditional optimization approaches. We demonstrate its performance modeling workplace charging control under a range of electricity rate schedules, achieving small errors (2.5%–4.5%) while accelerating computations by more than 4000 times. To generate the uncontrolled charging demand for scenarios with residential, workplace, and public charging we use statistical representations of a large data set of real charging sessions. We demonstrate the methodology by generating diverse sets of scenarios for California's charging demand in 2030 which consider multiple charging segments and controls, each run locally in under 50 s. We further demonstrate support for rate design by modeling the large-scale impact of a new, custom rate schedule for workplace charging.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model Residuals as Shields: A Two-Level Formulation to Defend Smart Grids From Poisoning Attacks

The advancement of smart grids presents both vast opportunities and heightened cybersecurity risks. Data-driven defense mechanisms, though designed as a shield against these threats, can fall prey to poisoning attacks. We delve into regression settings, underscoring the imperative to fortify defenses against a spectrum of poison ratios, notably those above 0.5—an issue scarcely addressed in prior studies. Recognizing the susceptibilities of smart grids and their manipulable sensors, we exploit the very intent of poisoning attacks, compromising model accuracy, as our defense mechanism. Our proposed two-level optimization framework discerns between poisoned and authentic data based on model residuals, outperforming or matching existing methods in 72% to 77% of precision and 75% to 80% of recalls across various poisoning attacks, poison ratios, and datasets. Once the authentic data are identified, the trained model is adaptable for a variety of applications. Comprehensive evaluations on different smart grid datasets, pitted against myriad poisoning schemes, validate our methodology’s edge over existing methods. Here, we also shed light on the implications of model misspecification originating from temporal auto-correlation, a common feature in Internet of Things and smart grid data.

Adversarial machine learning (ML)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Differential Property Prediction: A Machine Learning Approach to Experimental Design in Advanced Manufacturing

Advanced manufacturing techniques have enabled the production of materials with state-of-the-art properties. In many cases however, the development of physics-based models of these techniques lags behind their development in the lab. This means that material and process development proceeds largely via trial and error. This is sub-optimal since experiments are cost-, time-, and labor-intensive. In this work we propose a machine learning framework, differential property classification (DPC), which enables an experimenter to leverage machine learning's unparalleled pattern matching capability to pursue data-driven experimental design. DPC takes two possible experiment parameter sets and outputs a prediction of which will produce a material with a more desirable property specified by the operator. We demonstrate the success of DPC on AA7075 tube manufacturing process and mechanical property data using shear assisted processing and extrusion (ShAPE), an emerging solid phase processing technology. We show that by focusing on the experimenter's need to choose between multiple candidate experimental parameters, we can reframe the challenging regression task of predicting material properties from processing parameters, into a classification task on which machine learning models can achieve good performance.

advanced manufacturing, machine learning, ShAPE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The simulated catalogue of optical transients and correlated hosts (SCOTCH)

ABSTRACT As we observe a rapidly growing number of astrophysical transients, we learn more about the diverse host galaxy environments in which they occur. Host galaxy information can be used to purify samples of cosmological Type Ia supernovae, uncover the progenitor systems of individual classes, and facilitate low-latency follow-up of rare and peculiar explosions. In this work, we develop a novel data-driven methodology to simulate the time-domain sky that includes detailed modelling of the probability density function for multiple transient classes conditioned on host galaxy magnitudes, colours, star formation rates, and masses. We have designed these simulations to optimize photometric classification and analysis in upcoming large synoptic surveys. We integrate host galaxy information into the snana simulation framework to construct the simulated catalogue of optical transients and correlated hosts (SCOTCH, a publicly available catalogue of 5-million idealized transient light curves in LSST passbands and their host galaxy properties over the redshift range 0 < z < 3. This catalogue includes supernovae, tidal disruption events, kilonovae, and active galactic nuclei. Each light curve consists of true top-of-the-galaxy magnitudes sampled with high (≲2 d) cadence. In conjunction with SCOTCH, we also release an associated set of tutorials and transient-specific libraries to enable simulations of arbitrary space- and ground-based surveys. Our methodology is being used to test critical science infrastructure in advance of surveys by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Nancy G. Roman Space Telescope.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generative AI in Supply Chain Management: Applications, Challenges, and Future Directions

Supply chain management (SCM) is undergoing rapid transformation due to increasing global complexity, demand volatility, and operational disruptions. Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) has emerged as a powerful paradigm capable of synthesizing data, simulating operational scenarios, and enabling adaptive decision-making across supply chain networks. This paper presents a survey of GenAI’s role in SCM, focusing on its applications in predictive analytics, autonomous logistics, and fraud detection. Unlike traditional AI systems that rely primarily on predictive analytics, GenAI models, including large language models, generative adversarial networks, and diffusion-based architectures, enable the creation of synthetic supply chain scenarios and autonomous optimization strategies. This survey provides (1) a taxonomy of GenAI techniques for supply chain applications, (2) a comparative analysis of generative AI approaches with traditional machine learning, reinforcement learning, and blockchain-based methods, and (3) a discussion of key challenges such as data privacy, interpretability, and integration with legacy enterprise systems. Furthermore, we outline open research problems and propose directions for future research toward autonomous, resilient, and sustainable AI-driven supply chains.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven projection pursuit adaptation of polynomial chaos expansions for dependent high-dimensional parameters

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and inference involving a large number of parameters are valuable tools for problems associated with heterogeneous and non-stationary behaviors. The difficulty with these problems is exacerbated when these parameters are statistically dependent requiring statistical characterization over joint measures. Probabilistic modeling methodologies stand as effective tools in the realms of UQ and inference. Among these, polynomial chaos expansions (PCE), when adapted to low-dimensional quantities of interest (QoI), provide effective yet accurate approximations for these QoI in terms of an adapted orthogonal basis. These adaptation techniques have been cast as projection pursuits in Gaussian Hilbert space in what has been referred to as a projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) by Xiaoshu Zeng and Roger Ghanem (2023). The PPA method efficiently identifies an optimal low-dimensional space for representing the QoI and simultaneously evaluates an optimal PCE within that space. The quality of this approximation clearly depends on the size of the training dataset, which is typically a function of the adapted reduced dimension. Here, the complexity of the problem is thus mediated by the complexity of the low-dimensional quantity of interest and not the complexity of the high-dimensional parameter space.

Data-driven↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scale effects on core design, fuel costs, and spent fuel volume of pressurized water reactors

The desire to improve the economic competitiveness and deployment pace of nuclear energy through modularization, manufacturing, and series production had led to the development of smaller size reactors. As the standard 17x17 fuel technology is mainly maintained in the pressurized water reactors (PWRs) category, this translates into a lower number of fuel assemblies in the core and sometimes a reduced fuel height. To assess the impact of such scale change in core design on fuel cycle cost and spent fuel volume, a scoping analysis tool is developed based on infinite lattice calculations, leakage, fuel management reduced models, and levelized unit cost of electricity (LCOE) estimate. As such, cost dynamics driven by fuel specific power, burnup, core leakage, feed, cycle length, fuel assembly height as well as uranium market data are captured with consistent set of assumptions and analysis methods. A selection of 5 reactor designs representative of leading PWR developers is assessed and compared. Pursuing higher specific powers and optimal burnups are highlighted as the main fuel cost reduction drivers, nevertheless, practical limitations and opportunities must be evaluated to establish the feasibility of such enhanced fuel operation. In consequence, a detailed core design is performed using SIMULATE3 code for 5 PWR variations including natural and forced coolant circulation modes, two reactor scales, power densities of 73, 112, and 123 kW/l and higher discharge burnups. Design and optimization are performed at the lattice level, for the reflector, and at the core loading level. Satisfactory steady-state operation including power distribution, coolant operating limits, and reactivity requirements are analyzed and reported in this paper. The fuel economics of the detailed core designs confirm the scoping analysis findings. Despite the unlocked power uprates in small PWRs, the achievable burnup for a given fuel specific power requires more enrichment and shorter fuel height results in higher fabrication costs per mass of fuel, which makes scaling down core size a more expensive endeavor on the fuel cycle front. Spent fuel volumes are reported for the PWRs designed in this paper. Furthermore, these volumes are driven by the core average discharge burnup regardless of the scale in consideration. Additional cost and core performance aspects related to heavy reflector gains, fuel-reflector substitution, and disposal cost policy in the U.S. are examined.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven selection of stiff chemistry ODE solver in operator-splitting schemes

Most computational fluid dynamics simulations of practical combustion applications employ operator-splitting schemes, where chemistry and transport are separated and integrated with distinct numerical methods. The changes in composition due to chemistry are evaluated by solving ordinary differential equations (ODE) in each cell of the computational domain, which typically dominates the computational cost when detailed chemistry is considered. In this work, a data-driven approach for the selection of chemistry ODE solvers in operator-splitting schemes is presented. Neural networks are used to predict the ODE solvers CPU times and errors for a given thermochemical state. This allows the selection of an optimal ODE solver on a cell-by-cell, timestep-by-timestep basis. The models are trained using a wide set of thermochemical states generated through partially-stirred reactors and flames simulations. The methodology is validated by quantifying the prediction errors, the classification accuracy, and the computational speedup. The model predicts the optimal ODE solver for 70 to 95% of the validation cases and decreases the computional cost by a factor of 3 or more. The generalizability of the methodology to different chemical mechanisms and different fuels is assessed and it is shown that the model’s performance is only slightly degraded and its applicability is significantly enhanced if the inputs to the neural networks are restricted to a small set of thermochemical state variables present in most chemical mechanisms. In conclusion, the models are used in an homogeneous reactor case and a multi-dimensional CFD simulation of a diesel spray at high pressure where a speedup of more than 3 is achieved.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A non-intrusive optical approach to characterize heliostats in utility-scale power tower plants: Flight path generation/optimization of unmanned aerial systems

A newly developed in situ non-intrusive optical (NIO) approach has been developed to survey various types of heliostat optical errors for a concentrating solar power (CSP) tower plant. To measure mirror surface slope error, facet canting error, and heliostat tracking error at a sub-milliradian accuracy, NIO requires several reflection images scanned over each individual heliostat. For a utility-scale plant that typically includes more than 10,000 heliostats, an unmanned aerial system (UAS) is crucial for efficient implementation of the NIO method. Here, we develop a flight path generation/optimization algorithm to plan more efficient UAS paths to collect NIO data over a utility-scale heliostat field. The algorithm considers NIO data requirements, all potential constraints, optimization within each subfield, and operational flexibility. Case studies are presented to illustrate the feasibility and robustness of the developed flight path algorithm. The path planning algorithm may also find applications elsewhere, such as drone-driven imaging under extreme conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-free estimation of completeness, uncertainties, and outliers in atomistic machine learning using information theory

Abstract An accurate description of information is relevant for a range of problems in atomistic machine learning (ML), such as crafting training sets, performing uncertainty quantification (UQ), or extracting physical insights from large datasets. However, atomistic ML often relies on unsupervised learning or model predictions to analyze information contents from simulation or training data. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework that provides a rigorous, model-free tool to quantify information contents in atomistic simulations. We demonstrate that the information entropy of a distribution of atom-centered environments explains known heuristics in ML potential developments, from training set sizes to dataset optimality. Using this tool, we propose a model-free UQ method that reliably predicts epistemic uncertainty and detects out-of-distribution samples, including rare events in systems such as nucleation. This method provides a general tool for data-driven atomistic modeling and combines efforts in ML, simulations, and physical explainability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1992

Design sensitivity analysis and optimization tool (DSO) for sizing design applications

The DSO tool, a structural design software system that provides the designer with a graphics-based menu-driven design environment to perform easy design optimization for general applications, is presented. Three design stages, preprocessing, design sensitivity analysis, and postprocessing, are implemented in the DSO to allow the designer to carry out the design process systematically. A framework, including data base, user interface, foundation class, and remote module, has been designed and implemented to facilitate software development for the DSO. A number of dedicated commercial software/packages have been integrated in the DSO to support the design procedures. Instead of parameterizing an FEM, design parameters are defined on a geometric model associated with physical quantities, and the continuum design sensitivity analysis theory is implemented to compute design sensitivity coefficients using postprocessing data from the analysis codes. A tracked vehicle road wheel is given as a sizing design application to demonstrate the DSO's easy and convenient design optimization process.

Chang, Kuang-Hua↗