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At least 541 records · Page 30

Characterizing Uranus with an Ice giant Planetary Origins Probe (Ice-POP)

We now know from studies of planetary transits and microlensing that Neptune-mass planets are ubitquitous and may be the most common class of planets in the Galaxy. As such it is crucial that we understand the formation and evolution of the ice giant planets in our own solar system so that we can better understand planet formation throughout the galaxy. An entry probe mission to Uranus would help accomplish this goal. In fact the Planetary Decadal Survey recommended a Uranus orbiter with entry probe but did not explore in detail the specifications for the entry probe. NASA Ames is currently studying thermal protection system requirements for such a mission and this has led to questions regarding the minimum interesting science payload of such an entry probe. The single most important in-situ measurement for an ice giant entry probe is a measurement of atmospheric composition. For Uranus this would specifically include the methane and noble gas abundances. An in situ measurement of the methane abundance, from below the methane cloud, would constrain the atmospheric carbon abundance, which is believed to be roughly 30 to 50 times solar. There are hints from the transiting planets that extrasolar ice giants show comparable or even greater enhancements of heavy elements compared to their primary stars. However the origin of this carbon enhancement is controversial. Is Uranus a "failed core" of a larger gas giant or was the atmosphere enhanced by accretion of icy planetesimals' Constraining atmospheric abundances of C and perhaps S or even N from below 5 bars would provide badly needed data to address such issues. A measurement of the N abundance would provide clues on the origin of the planetesimals that formed Uranus. Low N-abundance indicates planetesimals from 'warmer' regions where N was mainly in form of NH3, whereas a strong enrichment could indicate planetesimals / cometary material from the colder outer regions of the nebula. Furthermore CO and HCN have been detected in Neptune but not in Uranus. A measurement of the abundance of either would constrain the source mechanisms for these molecules (exogenic or internal). A major surprise from the Galileo Entry Probe was that the heavier noble gases Ar, Kr, and Xe are enhanced in Jupiter's atmosphere at a level comparable to what was seen for the chemically active volatiles N, C, and S. It had been generally expected that Ar, Kr, and Xe would be present in solar abundances, as all were expected to accrete with hydrogen during the gravitational capture of nebular gases. Enhanced abundances of Ar, Kr, and Xe is equivalent to saying that these noble gases have been separated from hydrogen. There are several mechanisms that could accomplish this but these hypotheses require further testing. Measurement of noble gas abundances in an ice giant would constrain the planetary formation and nebular mechanisms responsible for this enhancement. Standard three-layer models of Uranus find that the outer, predominantly H/He layer of Uranus does not reach pressures high enough (approximately 1 Mbar) for H2 to transition to liquid metallic hydrogen. However, valid models can also be constructed with a smaller intermediate water-rich layer, with hydrogen then reaching the metallic hydrogen phase. If this occurs, He should phase separate from the hydrogen and ``rain out," taking along a substantial abundance of Ne, as suggested for Jupiter (and likely also for Saturn). Hence He and Ne depletions could be probes of the planet's structure in the much deeper interior. A determination of Uranus' atmospheric abundances, particularly of the noble gasses, is thus critical to understanding the formation of Uranus, and giant planets in general. These measurements can only be performed with an entry probe. The second key measurement would be a temperature-pressure sounding to provide ground truth for remote measurements of atmospheric temperature and composition and to constrain the internal heat flow. This would also establish that the methane abundance measurements have indeed been made below any possible methane cloud. Finally an ultra stable oscillator would measure wind speeds and constrain atmospheric dynamics. In our presentation we will discuss the importance of all of these measurements and argue that an entry probe is a crucial component of any ice giant mission.

Marley, Mark S.↗

Models of Sector Flows Under Local, Regional and Airport Weather Constraints

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗

Encoding Frequency Constraints in Preventive Unit Commitment Using Deep Learning With Region-of-Interest Active Sampling

With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, frequency response and its security are of significant concerns for reliable power system operations. Frequency-constrained unit commitment (FCUC) is proposed to address this challenge. Despite existing efforts in modeling frequency characteristics in unit commitment (UC), current strategies can only handle oversimplified low-order frequency response models and do not consider wide-range operating conditions. This paper presents a generic data-driven framework for FCUC under high renewable penetration. Here, deep neural networks (DNNs) are trained to predict the frequency response using real data or high-fidelity simulation data. Next, the DNN is reformulated as a set of mixed-integer linear constraints to be incorporated into the ordinary UC formulation. In the data generation phase, all possible power injections are considered, and a region-of-interest active sampling is proposed to include power injection samples with frequency nadirs closer to the UFLC threshold, which enhances the accuracy of frequency constraints in FCUC. The proposed FCUC is investigated on the IEEE 39-bus system. Then, a full-order dynamic model simulation using PSS/E verifies the effectiveness of FCUC in frequency-secure generator commitments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sensitivity of Anthropogenic Cloud Droplet Number Change to Preindustrial Emission Inventories and Physics Parameterizations

Understanding the preindustrial (PI) to present-day (PD) change in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd) is important to constrain the anthropogenic influence on clouds and aid future model projections. Perturbed parameter ensemble simulations of PI and PD conditions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv3) reveal two locations with consistent negative ΔNd signal across parameter space–the Southeastern US and the United Kingdom–despite a trend of positive ΔNd globally from increased fossil fuel consumption. These negative ΔNd signals are driven by higher anthropogenic biofuel emissions in the PI. By varying the PI aerosol mass and/or number emissions across these data sets' uncertainty ranges, we can change the magnitude and sign of ΔNd and the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci) regionally and globally, with near-zero ΔNd leading to near-zero ERFaci. These results highlight the need to constrain PI emission uncertainty to better understand Earth system responses to aerosol-cloud interactions.

Brown, Hunter Y. [University of Wyoming, Laramie, ↗

Chandra Observations and Models of the Mixed Morphology Supernova Remnant W44: Global Trends

We report on the Chandra observations of the archetypical mixed morphology (or thermal composite) supernova remnant, W44. As with other mixed morphology remnants, W44's projected center is bright in thermal X-rays. It has an obvious radio shell, but no discernable X-ray shell. In addition, X-ray bright knots dot W44's image. The spectral analysis of the Chandra data show that the remnant s hot, bright projected center is metal-rich and that the bright knots are regions of comparatively elevated elemental abundances. Neon is among the affected elements, suggesting that ejecta contributes to the abundance trends. Furthermore, some of the emitting iron atoms appear to be underionized with respect to the other ions, providing the first potential X-ray evidence for dust destruction in a supernova remnant. We use the Chandra data to test the following explanations for W44's X-ray bright center: 1.) entropy mixing due to bulk mixing or thermal conduction, 2.) evaporation of swept up clouds, and 3.) a metallicity gradient, possibly due to dust destruction and ejecta enrichment. In these tests, we assume that the remnant has evolved beyond the adiabatic evolutionary stage, which explains the X-ray dimness of the shell. The entropy mixed model spectrum was tested against the Chandra spectrum for the remnant's projected center and found to be a good match. The evaporating clouds model was constrained by the finding that the ionization parameters of the bright knots are similar to those of the surrounding regions. While both the entropy mixed and the evaporating clouds models are known to predict centrally bright X-ray morphologies, their predictions fall short of the observed brightness gradient. The resulting brightness gap can be largely filled in by emission from the extra metals in and near the remnant's projected center. The preponderance of evidence (including that drawn from other studies) suggests that W44's remarkable morphology can be attributed to dust destruction and ejecta enrichment within an entropy mixed, adiabatic phase supernova remnant. The Chandra data prompts a new question - by what astrophysical mechanisms are the metals distributed so inhomogeneously in the supernova remnant.

Shelton, R. L.↗

Comparison of Different Global Information Sources Used in Surface Radiative Flux Calculation: Radiative Properties of the Surface

Direct estimates of surface radiative fluxes that resolve regional and weather-scale variabilty over the whole globe with reasonable accuracy have only become possible with the advent of extensive global, mostly satellite, datasets within the past couple of decades. The accuracy of these fluxes, estimated to be about 10-15 W per square meter is largely limited by the accuracy of the input datasets. The leading uncertainties in the surface fluxes are no longer predominantly induced by clouds but are now as much associated with uncertainties in the surface and near-surface atmospheric properties. This study presents a fuller, more quantitative evaluation of the uncertainties for the surface albedo and emissivity and surface skin temperatures by comparing the main available global datasets from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer product, the NASA Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Surface Radiation Budget project, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer project, NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Image project. The datasets are, in practice, treated as an ensemble of realizations of the actual climate such that their differences represent an estimate of the uncertainty in their measurements because we do not possess global truth datasets for these quantities. The results are globally representative and may be taken as a generalization of our previous ISCCP-based uncertainty estimates for the input datasets. Surface properties have the primary role in determining the surface upward shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) flux. From this study, the following conclusions are obtained. Although land surface albedos in the near near-infrared remain poorly constrained (highly uncertain), they do not cause too much error in total surface SW fluxes; the more subtle regional and seasonal variations associated with vegetation and snow are still on doubt. The uncertainty of the broadband black-sky SW albedo for land surface from this study is about 7%, which can easily induce 5-10 W per square meter uncertainty in (upwelling) surface SW flux estimates. Even though available surface (broadband) LW emissivity datasets differ significantly (3%-5% uncertainty), this disagreement is confined to wavelengths greater than 20 micrometers so that there is little practical effect (1-3 W per square meters) on the surface upwelling LW fluxes. The surface skin temperature is one of two leading factors that cause problems with surface LW fluxes. Even though the differences among the various datasets are generally only 2-4 K, this can easily cause 10-15 W per square meter uncertainty in calculated surface (upwelling) LW fluxes. Significant improvements could be obtained for surface LW flux calculations by improving the retrievals of (in order of decreasing importance): (1) surface skin temperature, (2) surface air and near-surface-layer temperature, (3) column precipitable water amount and (4) broadband emissivity. And for surface SW fluxes, improvements could be obtained (excluding improved cloud treatment) by improving the retrievals of (1) aerosols (from our sensitivity studies but not discussed in this work), and (2) surface (black-sky) albedo, of which, NIR part of the spectrum has much larger uncertainty.

Zhang, Yuanchong↗

Lattice Design of the Beam Transfer Line (BTL) from PIP-II LINAC to the Booster at Fermilab

PIP-II beam transfer line (BTL) to transport the beam from PIP-II Linac to the Booster ring at Fermilab. The latest design eliminates rolling the dipoles in the beam line to cross over the Tevatron tunnel. Also re-designed is the lattice in the region of the Booster Injection to meet the request of the civil construction needs and accommodate the constrains of the Booster injection request. A beam line to the beam absorber (BAL) is designed based on the request from the results of Mars simulations and ANASYS calculation of the absorber. Simulations with dipole and quadrupole field errors for the Beam Transport Line (BTL) to the Booster, which provides the specifications for all the magnets and Power supplies, will be presented too.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Bathymetric prediction from Seasat altimeter data

The linear response function technique is used to analyze two 1300 km tracks of Seasat altimeter data and corresponding bathymetry in the Musician Seamounts region north of Hawaii. A predictive filter is developed which can operate on Seasat altimetry in poorly surveyed oceanic regions to indicate the presence of major bathymetric anomalies. Modelling of the bathymetry-geoid correlation in the Musician region is attempted using the elastic plate model. The flexural rigidity of the plate is not well constrained by the data but appears to be in the range 5 x 10 to the 21st N m up to 5 x 10 to the 22nd N m at the time of loading. Since the Musician Seamounts and the crust on which they lie are both Late Cretaceous in age, this value represents the effective flexural rigidity of very young lithosphere that was 'frozen in' at the time of volcanism. The modelling indicates that the general form of a predictive filter will strongly depend on various geologic parameters, especially the effective flexural rigidity.

Dixon, T. H.↗

Geometric effects of global lateral heterogeneity on long-period surface wave propagation

The present investigation has the objective to document examples of anomalous long-period surface wave amplitude behavior and to provide a preliminary appraisal of the effects of global lateral heterogeneity on surface wave propagation from a ray theory perspective. Attention is given to remarkable long-period surface wave anomalies described in literature, an equidistance azimuthal plot centered on the Iranian source region, Rayleigh wave and Love wave spectra for the 256-s period arrivals for the Tabas earthquake, constrained moment tensor and fault model inversion solutions ofr Iranian earthquakes, aspects of surface wave ray tracing, and a table of Rayleigh wave amplitude anomalies for Iranian earthquakes. Surface wave ray-tracing calculations for models of global phase velocity variations proposed by Nakanishi and Anderson (1984) are found to show that large-amplitude anomalies will be observed for Love and Rayleigh waves with periods of 100-250 s.

Lay, T.↗

Polar deposits of Mars

Layered deposits unique to the poles of Mars indicate long-term winter deposition of ice and sediment modulated by periodic climate change. The layered deposits contain at least two kinds of nonvolatile materials: one that is similar to the bright red dust raised in Martian dust storms, and one similar to dark sand dune materials observed at low and mild latitudes. The ice fraction of the deposits remains unknown. Because the present polar dust and ice budgets are poorly constrained, correlation of layer thicknesses with specific astronomical cycles remains very uncertain. Layered deposits in both polar regions appear to have been slightly more widespread in the past. Other sediments near the poles, and the estimated ages of the layered deposits, suggest that the polar sedimentary regime has evolved over the geologic history of Mars. Acquisition of good data on the vertical sequence of layer characteristics and better crater retention ages should allow revealing comparisons with astronomically driven cycles and secular atmospheric changes.

Thomas, P.↗

The Effects of the Uncertainty of Departures on Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) Scheduling

The Multi-center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) provides a platform for regional or national traffic flow management, by allowing long-range cooperative time-based metering to constrained resources, such as airports or air traffic control center boundaries. Part of the demand for resources is made up of proposed departures, whose actual departure time is difficult to predict. For this reason, McTMA does not schedule the departures in advance, but rather relies on traffic managers to input their requested departure time. Because this happens only a short while before the aircraft's actual departure, McTMA is unable to accurately predict the amount of delay airborne aircraft will need to take in order to accommodate the departures. The proportion of demand which is made up by such proposed departures increases as the horizon over which metering occurs gets larger. This study provides an initial analysis of the severity of this problem in a 400-500 nautical mile metering horizon and discusses potential solutions to accommodate these departures. The challenge is to smoothly incorporate departures with the airborne stream while not excessively delaying the departures.' In particular, three solutions are reviewed: (1) scheduling the departures at their proposed departure time; (2) not scheduling the departures in advance; and (3) scheduling the departures at some time in the future based on an estimated error in their proposed time. The first solution is to have McTMA to automatically schedule the departures at their proposed departure times. Since the proposed departure times are indicated in their flight times in advance, this method is the simplest, but studies have shown that these proposed times are often incorrect2 The second option is the current practice, which avoids these inaccuracies by only scheduling aircraft when a confirmed prediction of departure time is obtained from the tower of the departure airport. Lastly, McTMA can schedule the departures at a predicted departure time based on statistical data of past departure time performance. It has been found that departures usually have a wheels-up time after their indicated proposed departure time, as shown in Figure 1. Hence, the departures were scheduled at a time in the future based on the mean error in proposed departure times for their airport.

Thipphavong, Jane↗

(abstract) Asteroid 4769 Casalia: Intrepretation of Optical Lightcurves Using a Radar-Derived Shape Model

A 167-parameter, 3-D shape model of Castalia, obtained from inversion of delay-Doppler images, constrained the object's subradar latitude on the date of the observations by defining an annular sky region that contains Castalia's pole. We have used the shape model and nominal Hapke parameters for S asteroids to model Castalia lightcurves obtained at Table Mountain Observatory on August 23-25, 1989, at solar phase angles ranging from 58(deg) to 90(deg). This investigation defines the projected pole's azimuthal orientation around the radar line of sight and therefore yields a least-squares estimate of the orientation of Castalia's north or south pole; there is insufficient geometric leverage to distinguish the rotation sense or to estimate values of Hapke parameters. The model lightcurves match the TMO data surprisingly well, given the modest number of shape parameters in the model and the fact that part of the asteroid was not seen by the radar.

asteroid Castalia shape radar 3-D model optical li↗

Assessing the Impact of Large Volcanic Eruptions of the Last Millennium (850-1850 CE) on Australian Rainfall Regimes

Explosive volcanism is an important natural climate forcing, impacting global surface temperatures and regional precipitation. Although previous studies have investigated aspects of the impact of tropical volcanism on various ocean–atmosphere systems and regional climate regimes, volcanic eruptions remain a poorly understood climate forcing and climatic responses are not well constrained. In this study, volcanic eruptions are explored in particular reference to Australian precipitation, and both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using nine realizations of the last millennium (LM) (850–1850CE) with different time-evolving forcing combinations, from the NASA GISS ModelE2-R, the impact of the six largest tropical volcanic eruptions of this period are investigated. Overall, we find that volcanic aerosol forcing increased the likelihood of El Niño and positive IOD conditions for up to four years following an eruption, and resulted in positive precipitation anomalies over north-west (NW) and south-east (SE) Australia. Larger atmospheric sulfate loading during larger volcanic eruptions coincided with more persistent positive IOD and El Niño conditions, enhanced positive precipitation anomalies over NW Australia, and dampened precipitation anomalies over SE Australia.

Blake, Stephanie A. P.↗

Looking at A 0535+26 at Low Luminosities with NuSTAR

We report on two NuSTAR observations of the high-mass X-ray binary A 0535+26 taken toward the end of its normal 2015 outburst at very low 3-50 keV luminosities of approximately 1.4 times x 10 (sup 36) ergs per second and approximately 5 times x 10 (sup 35) ergs per second, which are complemented by nine Swift observations. The data clearly confirm indications seen in earlier data that the source's spectral shape softens as it becomes fainter. The smooth exponential rollover at high energies seen in the first observation evolves to a much more abrupt steepening of the spectrum at 20-30 keV. The continuum evolution can be nicely described with emission from a magnetized accretion column, modeled using the compmag model modified by an additional Gaussian emission component for the fainter observation. Between the two observations, the optical depth changes from 0.75 plus or minus 0.04 to 0.56 plus 0.01 (sup) minus 0.04 (sub), the electron temperature remains constant, and there is an indication that the column decreases in radius. Since the energy-resolved pulse profiles remain virtually unchanged in shape between the two observations, the emission properties of the accretion column reflect the same accretion regime. This conclusion is also confirmed by our result that the energy of the cyclotron resonant scattering feature (CRSF) at approximately 45 keV is independent of the luminosity, implying that the magnetic field in the region in which the observed radiation is produced is the same in both observations. Finally, we also constrain the evolution of the continuum parameters with the rotational phase of the neutron star. The width of the CRSF could only be constrained for the brighter observation. Based on Monte Carlo simulations of CRSF formation in single accretion columns, its pulse phase dependence supports a simplified fan beam emission pattern. The evolution of the CRSF width is very similar to that of the CRSF depth, which is, however, in disagreement with expectations.

Ballhausen, Ralf↗

OzDES Reverberation Mapping of Active Galactic Nuclei: Final Data Release, Black-Hole Mass Results, & Scaling Relations

Over the last decade, the Australian Dark Energy (OzDES) collaboration has used Reverberation Mapping to measure the masses of high redshift supermassive black holes. Here we present the final review and analysis of this OzDES reverberation mapping campaign. These observations use 6-7 years of photometric and spectroscopic observations of 735 Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) in the redshift range 0.13-3.85 and bolometric luminosity range 44.3 - 47.5 erg/s. Both photometry and spectra are observed in visible wavelengths, allowing for the physical scale of the AGN broad line region to be estimated from reverberations of the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱, MgII and CIV emission lines. We successfully use reverberation mapping to constrain the masses of 62 super-massive black holes, and combine with existing data to fit a power law to the lag-luminosity relation for the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱ and MgII lines with a scatter of ~0.25 dex, the tightest yet identified, fit specifically for consistency with high redshift AGN. We fit a similarly constrained relation for CIV, resolving a tension with the low luminosity literature AGN by accounting for selection effects arising from finite survey length. We also examine the impact of emission line width and luminosity (related to accretion rate) in reducing the scatter of these scaling relationships and find no significant improvement over the lag-only approach for any of the three lines. Using these relations, we further estimate the masses and accretion rates of 246 AGN with single epoch methods. We also use these relations to estimate the relative sizes of the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱, MgII and CIV emitting regions. In short, we provide a comprehensive benchmark of high redshift AGN reverberation mapping at the close of this most recent generation of surveys, including light curves, time-delays, and a set of significantly improved radius-luminosity relations for use with high-redshift populations.

McDougall, Hugh [Queensland U.]↗

Collective modes of excitation in 64 Cu

Medium and high-spin level sequences in 64 Cu were investigated using the complex 26 Mg( 48 Ca, αp5nγ ) multinucleon transfer reaction. The experiment was performed at the ATLAS accelerator facility at the Argonne National Laboratory using the Gammasphere array and the fragment mass analyzer (FMA). Two high-spin, quasirotational bands consisting of stretched-E2 transitions were observed in coincidence with the known low-spin structure for the first time. These bands share remarkable similarities with highly deformed and/or superdeformed bands observed in the A ≈ 60–70 mass region. In addition, a regular dipole sequence with weak E2 crossover transitions was observed. A general discussion of the observed structures, complemented by theoretical calculations carried out within the framework of the adiabatic and configuration-fixed constrained covariant density functional theory and the quantum particle-rotor model, are presented. Furthermore, the results are interpreted in the context of shell-structure evolution and the collectivity in the mass region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Neutrinos and Gamma Rays from Seyfert Galaxies Constrain the Properties of Coronal Turbulence

The TeV neutrino signal observed by IceCube from the active galactic nucleus NGC 1068 can probe its innermost coronal regions. If these neutrinos originate from hadrons accelerated within a magnetized turbulent corona, their intensity and spectrum depend on the turbulent magnetic field strength and turbulence coherence scale. The gamma rays accompanying neutrino production are absorbed in this optically thick environment, in a way that depends sensitively on the size of the corona. By a joint fit of the IceCube and Fermi-LAT observations, we translate the multimessenger signal from NGC 1068 and the tentative signal from NGC 7469 into quantitative constraints on coronal properties. NGC 1068, with a significant TeV neutrino excess, favors a compact, strongly magnetized corona with a large turbulence coherence length relative to the coronal size. NGC 7469, with two ∼100 TeV neutrino events, points instead to a somewhat larger corona with much smaller coherence length and high magnetization, but a very small fraction of energy in nonthermal protons. We obtain the diffuse flux from a population of Seyfert galaxies identical to either NGC 1068 or NGC 7469. Finally, we consider a third scenario, motivated by the spectral break observed in the diffuse neutrino flux at tens of TeV, with coronal properties intermediate between the two point-source-inspired models. To enable detailed comparisons with the IceCube and electromagnetic observations, we release our model predictions in a GitHub repository.

Testagrossa, Federico [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchr↗

Warming Reduces the Efficacy of Wet Conditions to Moderate Extreme Heat and Atmospheric Aridity Across the Central Plains

In the literature, dry land surface conditions possess a well-established association with extreme heat and high atmospheric aridity, especially in regions that experience strong land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, few studies have examined whether global warming will impact the ability of wet conditions to constrain high temperatures and atmospheric aridity occurrences. Here we investigate how wet conditions, which we define using precipitation and soil moisture, constrain high temperature and high vapor pressure deficit during the warm season over the Central Plains in North America at different global warming levels (0-3 degrees K). Using a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, we show that absolute changes in the maximum temperature distribution outweigh the historical cooling effect of high precipitation or soil moisture conditions, reducing the probability of non-extreme maximum temperatures under global warming. Strikingly, the conditional likelihood of non-extreme maximum temperatures falls from 97-98% at baseline conditions to 50-58% at 1 degree of global warming. Once 2 degrees of warming is reached, there is very little probability of constraining extreme maximum temperatures. On the other hand, high precipitation and high soil moisture are able to better retain the ability to constrain concurrent high vapor pressure deficit conditions – moving from 99% at baseline conditions to 81-91% at 1 degree of warming and 26-42% at 2 degrees of warming. With our results, we find that the extent of this retention is dependent on how individual models represent relative changes in the VPD distribution as temperatures warm. Overall, our results highlight the growing vulnerability of the Central North American region to warmer temperatures and drier atmospheric conditions, even during periods of high precipitation and soil moisture.

Extreme heat↗