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At least 541 records · Page 30

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Workflow of Full System SIERRA Models Supporting High Consequence Applications (Executive Summary)

The overall goal of this work was to advance the integrated workflow capabilities to provide the weapon system analysts the tools to construct, communicate and robustly execute end-to-end computational simulation models and analysis. Specifically, this includes developing and running automated, CompSim workflows that map model inputs to responses from large-scale studies executed on a distributed, heterogenous computing environment (e.g., CAD applications on Windows laptop to Sierra FEM codes on Trinity within a single workflow). The workflows developed enable ensemble calculations in support of ND program decisions, including sensitivity analysis, optimization and uncertainty quantification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Software Requirements for a Consequence Management Sample Data Simulator for Training and Drills

This document describes the requirements for a software tool that will enable FRMAC to simulate large sets of sample result data that is based realistically on simulated radionuclide deposition grids from NARAC. The user of this tool would be scientists involved in exercise and drill planning or part of the simulation cell of an exercise controller team. A key requirement is that this tool must be able to be run with a reasonable amount of training and job aids by any person within the Assessment, Laboratory Analysis, or Monitoring and Sampling divisions of the FRMAC to support any level of exercise from the small IPX to the national level full scale exercise. This tool should be relatively lean and stand-alone so that the user can run it in the field with limited IT resources. This document will describe the desired architecture, design characteristics, order of operations, and algorithms that can be given to a software development team to assist them in project scoping, costing, and eventually, development.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

JEDEC Tray Flexures for High-Consequence Electronics

JEDEC matrix trays are an industry standard for the safe handling, transport, and storage of electronics. Manufacturing tolerances of the trays (typical for injection-molded components) forces the creation of an envelope around components rather than a secure interface to prevent the trays themselves from damaging the electronics during use. However, this allows relative motion between the components, another potential damage source. This paper covers the design of tray features (flexures) than enable intentional, tuned contact preload to prevent relative motion, maximizing component safety while keeping the JEDEC tray form-factor. The target preload is balanced between gravity and shipment forces that could be experience during adverse handling or transport to prevent loss of contact or slip and keeping the load itself low enough to prevent component damage. Typical features/dimensions for JECEC trays were employed to maximize utility and minimize tray fabrication difficulty. The design also increases usability and component safety by making the chips visible while still sandwiched between trays. The point design described here exemplifies a simple, easy-to-manufacture tray-matrix flexure that significantly improves the security of supported components

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessment of the MACCS Code Applicability for Nearfield Consequence Analysis

Three codes are used for comparisons in this report to evaluate the adequacy of MACCS in the nearfield, AERMOD, ARCON96 and QUIC. Test cases were developed to give a broad range of weather conditions, building dimensions and plume buoyancy. Based on the comparisons of MACCS with AERMOD, ARCON96 and QUIC across the test cases, the following observations are made: MACCS calculations configured with point-source, ground-level, nonbuoyant plumes provide nearfield results that bound the centerline, ground-level air concentrations from AERMOD, ARCON96, and QUIC. MACCS calculations with ground-level, nonbuoyant plumes that include the effects of the building wake (area source) provide nearfield results that bound the results from AERMOD and QUIC and the results from ARCON96 at distances >250 m. If using a point-source is too conservative and it is desired to bound the results from all three codes, another alternative is to use area source parameters in MACCS that are less than the standard values, i.e., an area source intermediate between the standard recommendation and a point source. All these options provide results from MACCS that are bounding for the test cases evaluated. Based on these observations, it appears that MACCS is adequate for use in nearfield calculations, given the correct parameterization.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Technical and Programmatic Consequences of a Hypersonic Vehicle Flight Test Ban

The hypersonic vehicle (HV) is defined as any vehicle capable of traveling at or above five times the local speed of sound (Mach 5). Development of hypersonic flight has been pursued since the late 1950s, especially for reentry of missile warheads and returning orbiting spacecraft. Although considerable progress has been made since then, air- breathing and gliding hypersonic flight remains in the development and testing phase. Concerns have been raised, however, about continued HV flight tests because of HV's potential military use, which has the potential to encourage hair-trigger tactics that would increase crisis instability. In recent years, non-governmental organizations have called for a ban on HV flight testing for the primary purpose of halting continued development of the HV as a weapon. The emphasis on banning flight tests is due to its vital role in aerospace programs. Without it, significant technical uncertainties remain, creating safety and reliability issues that would discourage commercial development. Although the cost and time involved in flight tests have already spurred the use of other test methods, none can completely reproduce the flight test environment. Flight tests are important for reasons such as generating data unique to flight test environments to use in validating models and verifying ground test data, identifying unanticipated problems, and reducing risk. Commercial HV technology development today depends on advancements in four areas: propulsion; aerodynamics; critical guidance, navigation and control; and thermal management. This report summarizes the ramifications on HV technology development if flight tests were banned.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SNL Contribution: Consequence Analysis for Moisture Remaining in Dry Storage Canisters After Drying

This report discusses several possible sources of water that could persist in SNF dry storage canisters through the drying cycle. In some cases, the water is trapped in occluded geometries in the cask such as dashpots or damaged fuel. Persistence of water or ice in such locations seems unlikely, given the high heat load of the canistered fuel; this is especially true in the case of vacuum drying, where a strong driver exists to remove water vapor from the headspace of such occluded geometries. Water retention in Boral® core material is a known problem, that has in the past resulted in the need for much extended drying times. Since the shift to slightly higher porosity "blister resistant" Boral®, water drainage appears to be less of a problem. However, high surface areas for the Boral® core material will provide a trap for significant amounts of adsorbed water, at least some of which is certain to survive the drying process. Moreover, if corrosion within the cores produces hydrous aluminum corrosion products, these may also survive.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Consequences of Altered Root Nutrient Uptake for Soil Carbon Stabilization (Final Report)

Objectives: The primary objectives of this project are to improve our understanding of tropical forest belowground processes, and to increase representation of this biome in ecosystem-scale and global C cycle models. Belowground dynamics present a major source of uncertainty inhibiting our ability to predict C cycle responses to climate change. Representation of tropical forests in these models is particularly lacking, even though these ecosystems hold >25% of terrestrial C stocks. While the majority of humid tropical forests exist on relatively infertile soils (i.e. poor in rock-derived nutrients), enormous gradients in soil nutrient availability exist at landscape-scales due to shifts in geology and soil order. Soil fertility is likely to greatly influence how tropical soil C storage will respond to the declines in precipitation predicted for the tropics. In particular, root dynamics vary across soil fertility gradients, with roots representing the major input of C to subsurface soils. Root characteristics related to soil fertility include biomass, turnover, C exudates, tissue chemistry, and nutrient uptake rates, with each of these likely sensitive to changes in moisture. The proposed project will fully integrate field research with an existing ecosystem model to assess potential effects of drying on belowground tropical C dynamics across a range of soil fertilities. Project Description:. This project will identify key linkages among soil fertility, root nutrient uptake, root dynamics, and soil C storage. The hypothesized framework for understanding these linkages is: Tropical rainforest roots in relatively fertile soils have lesser root biomass, faster turnover, fewer exudates, and improved root tissue quality relative to infertile sites, all resulting from increased root nutrient uptake. Ultimately, these root characteristics in fertile soils promote proportionally greater long-term soil C storage in organo-mineral associations. Specifically, lower root exudates and improved root tissue quality in fertile soils reduce microbial respiration of extant soil C (i.e. “priming) and increase microbial C use efficiency, leading to sorption of protein-rich microbial and plant organic matter on soil mineral surfaces. However, the larger pools of mineral-associated C in fertile tropical soils are more vulnerable to decreased rainfall than smaller C pools in infertile soils, in part because of the lesser root biomass, faster turnover, and softer, more labile root tissues. Also, the shallower lateral rooting structures typical in fertile soils experience greater desiccation and death than deeper roots in infertile sites, with little short-term adaptation to drying.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Risk-Adaptive Experimental Design for High-Consequence Systems: LDRD Final Report

Constructing accurate statistical models of critical system responses typically requires an enormous amount of data from physical experiments or numerical simulations. Unfortunately, data generation is often expensive and time consuming. To streamline the data generation process, optimal experimental design determines the 'best' allocation of experiments with respect to a criterion that measures the ability to estimate some important aspect of an assumed statistical model. While optimal design has a vast literature, few researchers have developed design paradigms targeting tail statistics, such as quantiles. In this project, we tailored and extended traditional design paradigms to target distribution tails. Our approach included (i) the development of new optimality criteria to shape the distribution of prediction variances, (ii) the development of novel risk-adapted surrogate models that provably overestimate certain statistics including the probability of exceeding a threshold, and (iii) the asymptotic analysis of regression approaches that target tail statistics such as superquantile regression. To accompany our theoretical contributions, we released implementations of our methods for surrogate modeling and design of experiments in two complementary open source software packages, the ROL/OED Toolkit and PyApprox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Implementation of Additional Models into the MACCS Code for Nearfield Consequence Analysis

The NRC’s Non-Light Water Reactor Vision and Strategy report discusses the MACCS code readiness for nearfield analyses. To increase the nearfield capabilities of MACCS, the plume meander model from Ramsdell and Fosmire was integrated into MACCS and the MACCS plume meander model based on U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.145 was updated. Test cases were determined to verify the plume meander model implementation into MACCS 4.1. The results using the implemented MACCS plume meander models match the comparisons with other codes and analytical calculations. This verifies that the additional MACCS plume meander models have been successfully implemented into MACCS 4.1. This report documents the verification of these model implementations into MACCS and a comparison of the results using

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Enabling Particulate Materials Processing Science for High-Consequence, Small-Lot Precision Manufacturing

This Laboratory Directed Research and Development project developed and applied closely coupled experimental and computational tools to investigate powder compaction across multiple length scales. The primary motivation for this work is to provide connections between powder feedstock characteristics, processing conditions, and powder pellet properties in the context of powder-based energetic components manufacturing. We have focused our efforts on multicrystalline cellulose, a molecular crystalline surrogate material that is mechanically similar to several energetic materials of interest, but provides several advantages for fundamental investigations. We report extensive experimental characterization ranging in length scale from nanometers to macroscopic, bulk behavior. Experiments included nanoindentation of well-controlled, micron-scale pillar geometries milled into the surface of individual particles, single-particle crushing experiments, in-situ optical and computed tomography imaging of the compaction of multiple particles in different geometries, and bulk powder compaction. In order to capture the large plastic deformation and fracture of particles in computational models, we have advanced two distinct meshfree Lagrangian simulation techniques: 1.) bonded particle methods, which extend existing discrete element method capabilities in the Sandia-developed , open-source LAMMPS code to capture particle deformation and fracture and 2.) extensions of peridynamics for application to mesoscale powder compaction, including a novel material model that includes plasticity and creep. We have demonstrated both methods for simulations of single-particle crushing as well as mesoscale multi-particle compaction, with favorable comparisons to experimental data. We have used small-scale, mechanical characterization data to inform material models, and in-situ imaging of mesoscale particle structures to provide initial conditions for simulations. Both mesostructure porosity characteristics and overall stress-strain behavior were found to be in good agreement between simulations and experiments. We have thus demonstrated a novel multi-scale, closely coupled experimental and computational approach to the study of powder compaction. This enables a wide range of possible investigations into feedstock-process-structure relationships in powder-based materials, with immediate applications in energetic component manufacturing, as well as other particle-based components and processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Consequences of Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities on Implosion Dynamics in Gas-puff Z-pinch Experiments (Final Report)

The Laboratory of Plasma Studies (LPS), Cornell University, proposed to carry out a comprehensive series of gas-puff z-pinch experiments on a 1 MA pulsed power machine for the purpose of understanding the dynamics of imploding magnetized high energy density plasmas in the presence of Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities (RTI). Cornell’s pulsed power facilities, including the associated diagnostic instruments, are largely supported under the auspices of the Center for Pulsed-power-driven High-energy-density Plasmas (the Center), an NNSA-sponsored Center of Excellence. The proposed experiments were carried out predominantly by LPS graduate student, Sophia Rocco (the “primary grad student”), in collaboration with other graduate students and the scientific and technical staff of the Center using Cornell’s 1 MA COBRA pulsed power facility and all of its associated diagnostic instruments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗