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At least 541 records · Page 30

Development of dynamic simulation of TF34-GE-100 turbofan engine with post-stall capability

This paper describes the development of a hybrid computer simulation of a TF34-GE-100 turbofan engine with post-stall capability. The simulation operates in real-time and will be used to test and evaluate stall recovery control modes for this engine. The simulation calculations are performed by an analog computer with a peripheral multivariable function generation unit used for computing bivariate functions. Tabular listings of a simulation variables are obtained by interfacing to a digital computer and using a custom software package for data collection and display.

Krosel, S. M.↗

Development of dynamic simulation of TF34-GE-100 turbofan engine with post-stall capability

This paper describes the development of a hybrid computer simulation of a TF34-GE-100 turbofan engine with post-stall capability. The simulation operates in real-time and will be used to test and evaluate stall recovery control modes for this engine. The simulation calculations are performed by an analog computer with a peripheral multivariable function generation unit used for computing bivariate functions. Tabular listings of simulation variables are obtained by interfacing to a digital computer and using a custom software package for data collection and display.

Krosel, S. M.↗

Factors affecting the sticking of insects on modified aircraft wings

The adhesion of insects to aircraft wings is studied. Insects were collected in road tests in past studies and a large experimental error was introduced caused by the variability of insect flux. The presence of such errors has been detected by studying the insect distribution across an aluminum-strip covered half-cylinder mounted on the top of a car. After a nonuniform insect distribution (insect flux) was found from three road tests, a new arrangement of samples was developed. The feasibility of coating aircraft wing surfaces with polymers to reduce the number of insects sticking onto the surfaces was studied using fluorocarbon elastomers, styrene butadiene rubbers, and Teflon.

Yi, O.↗

Wrist Camera Orientation for Effective Telerobotic Orbital Replaceable Unit (ORU) Changeout

The Hydraulic Manipulator Testbed (HMTB) is the kinematic replica of the Flight Telerobotic Servicer (FTS). One use of the HMTB is to evaluate advanced control techniques for accomplishing robotic maintenance tasks on board the Space Station. Most maintenance tasks involve the direct manipulation of the robot by a human operator when high-quality visual feedback is important for precise control. An experiment was conducted in the Systems Integration Branch at the Langley Research Center to compare several configurations of the manipulator wrist camera for providing visual feedback during an Orbital Replaceable Unit changeout task. Several variables were considered such as wrist camera angle, camera focal length, target location, lighting. Each study participant performed the maintenance task by using eight combinations of the variables based on a Latin square design. The results of this experiment and conclusions based on data collected are presented.

Jones, Sharon Monica↗

Application of Thermal Infrared Remote Sensing for Quantitative Evaluation of Crop Characteristics

Evidence suggests that thermal infrared emittance (TIR) at the field-scale is largely a function of the integrated crop/soil moisture continuum. Because soil moisture dynamics largely determine crop yields in non-irrigated farming (85 % of Alabama farms are non-irrigated), TIR may be an effective method of mapping within field crop yield variability, and possibly, absolute yields. The ability to map yield variability at juvenile growth stages can lead to improved soil fertility and pest management, as well as facilitating the development of economic forecasting. Researchers at GHCC/MSFC/NASA and Auburn University are currently investigating the role of TIR in site-specific agriculture. Site-specific agriculture (SSA), or precision farming, is a method of crop production in which zones and soils within a field are delineated and managed according to their unique properties. The goal of SSA is to improve farm profits and reduce environmental impacts through targeted agrochemical applications. The foundation of SSA depends upon the spatial and temporal characterization of soil and crop properties through the creation of management zones. Management zones can be delineated using: 1) remote sensing (RS) data, 2) conventional soil testing and soil mapping, and 3) yield mapping. Portions of this research have concentrated on using remote sensing data to map yield variability in corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) crops. Remote sensing data have been collected for several fields in the Tennessee Valley region at various crop growth stages during the last four growing seasons. Preliminary results of this study will be presented.

Shaw, J.↗

Memo on Speech Alarms: Replication and Validation of Results

Caution and warning (C&W) alarms help people to quickly and efficiently identify situations that are of immediate danger or would escalate to a safety critical level. Tones are highly salient and have been traditionally used for caution and warning alarms. However, research shows that tone alarms can have an unwanted startle effect that hinders operator decision making. Speech alarms are good alternatives to tone alarms because they require less training and are less startling. They have been in use for decades for caution and warning systems in commercial airplanes and in buildings. Speech alarms have been considered for space flight use by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Astronaut Office and by its Orion Program. To investigate whether performance with various types of speech alarms was similar to performance with the currently used tone alarms, a study was conducted in 2010. The results showed faster identification times of speech alarms as well as higher acceptance rates from participants. However, the presentation of the alarms had a variable onset time due to software. The current research project was funded to address this issue by collecting new data with alarms having nonvariable onset time and to validate the alarms in the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA). This report describes the two studies: a laboratory experiment comparing tone and speech alarms, and an evaluation in the HERA facility.

warning signals↗

Mitigating Headward Fluid Shifts with Venoconstrictive Thigh Cuffs during Spaceflight

Venoconstrictive thigh cuffs (VTC) are a mechanical countermeasure capable of attenuating the spaceflight induced headward fluid shift, and thus may be a viable spaceflight associated neuro-ocular syndrome (SANS) countermeasure. Crewmembers can use VTC to mitigate the headward fluid shift to aid in adapting to spaceflight. However, data are needed to determine if VTC affect ocular structures. PURPOSE The purpose of this study is to determine the efficacy of long duration use of VTC application to mitigate the spaceflight-induced headward fluid shift. We hypothesize that a VTC countermeasure will temporarily reverse the headward fluid shift and attenuate spaceflight-induced changes of internal jugular vein (IJV) cross-sectional area, IJV pressure, stroke volume, cardiac output, intraocular pressure (IOP), and optic nerve head and retinal morphology. METHODS This study will evaluate the effectiveness of VTC countermeasure application on the headward fluid shift, as well as cardiovascular and ocular variables. VTC during spaceflight will be worn for an extended duration (up to 6 hours) with data collected at three time points (30 minutes, 3 hours, and 6 hours) to characterize the temporal profile of key fluid shift outcome measures of the vascular fluid shift, IOP, and ocular structure changes. Ten astronauts will be recruited to participate and will be studied before and during approximately 180-day International Space Station (ISS) spaceflight missions. Baseline data collection will occur approximately 90-days before launch (Figure). Preflight, each leg of the crewmember will be measured to determine the VTC cuff size and a cuff fit check session will occur prior to the preflight baseline ground imaging to verify the appropriate fit measured via a surface contact pressure. Prior to donning the VTC, baseline measures without VTC will be collected seated, supine, and supine followed by data collection with the VTC. The baseline data collection will include ultrasound (IJV area and pressure, stroke volume and cardiac output), brachial blood pressure and heart rate, optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging (total retinal thickness and choroid thickness), and IOP. An inflight cuff fit check session, same as the preflight fit check, will occur prior to VTC use on ISS. The inflight VTC experiment will be conducted early (FD45) and late (R-45) to determine if mission duration affects VTC fit and the efficacy of fluid redistribution. A system usability scale comfort questionnaire will be included in each VTC session to capture feedback from crewmembers regarding the comfort and usability of the VTC. SCIENTIFIC & MISSION IMPACT Results will narrow knowledge gaps described in the Human Research Roadmap to mitigate the headward fluid shift during spaceflight and help NASA to 1) determine the efficacy of extended use VTC application to mitigate the spaceflight-induced headward fluid shift and 2) further the understanding of the use of VTC on vascular fluid shifts, IOP, and ocular structure during spaceflight. Supported by NASA Human Research Program Directed Research. Figure. Detailed Testing Schedule. Baseline data collection at L-90 will be performed in a randomized order of position.

J V Jasien↗

Technical Report Series on the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) RSS-19 1994 CASI At-Sensor Radiance and Reflectance Images

The Remote Sensing Science (RSS)-19 team collected Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) images from the Chieftain Navaho aircraft in order to observe the seasonal change in the radiometric reflectance properties of the boreal forest landscape. CASI was deployed as a site-specific optical sensor during Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) field campaigns. Image data were collected with CASI on 36 days during five field campaigns between February and September 1994, primarily at flux tower sites located at study sites near Thompson, Manitoba, and Prince Albert, Saskatchewan. A variety of CASI data collection strategies were used to meet the following scientific objectives: 1) canopy bidirectional reflectance, 2) canopy biochemistry, 3) spatial variability, and 4) estimates of up and downwelling Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) and spectral albedo, as well as changes along transects across lakes and transects the Northern Study Area (NSA) and Southern Study Area (SSA). The images are stored as binary image files. A subset of the 1994 CASI acquisitions have been compressed and included on the BOREAS CD-ROM set. This subset includes three images for the NSA-OBS (Old Black Spruce) site on 06 Jun 94, 08 Aug 94, and 06 Sep 94, one image for the SSA-OBS site on 24 Jul 94; and one image for the NSA-Fen site on 08 Aug 94. The CASI imagery on the BOREAS CD-ROMs have been compressed using the Gzip program. The rest of the 1994 BOREAS CASI archive are not contained on the BOREAS CD-ROM set. Inventory listing files are supplied on the CD-ROM to inform users of the data that were collected. The RSS-19 1994 CASI images are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Miller, John↗

Interannual variability and climatic noise in satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation

Upwelling-IR observations of the North Pacific by polar orbiters NOAA 3, 4, 5, and 6 and TIROS-N from 1974 to 1981 are analyzed statistically in terms of interannual variability (IAV) in monthly averages and climatic noise due to short-term weather fluctuations. It is found that although the daily variance in the observations is the same in summer and winter months, and although IAV in winter is smaller than that in summer, the climatic noise in winter is so much smaller that a greater fraction of winter anomalies are statistically significant. The smaller winter climatic noise level is shown to be due to shorter autocorrelation times. It is demonstrated that increasing averaging area does not reduce the climatic noise level, suggesting that continuing collection of high-resolution satellite IR data on a global basis is necessary if better models of short-term variability are to be constructed.

Short, D. A.↗

CatTestHub: A benchmarking database of experimental heterogeneous catalysis for evaluating advanced materials

The ability to quantitatively compare newly evolving catalytic materials and technologies is hindered by the widespread availability of catalytic data collected in a consistent manner. While certain catalytic chemistries have been widely studied across decades of scientific research, quantitative comparisons based on literature information is hindered by variability in reaction conditions, types of reported data, and reporting procedures. Here, we present CatTestHub, an open-access database dedicated to benchmarking experimental heterogeneous catalysis data. Combining systematically reported catalytic activity data for selected probe chemistries, with relevant material characterization and reactor configuration information, the database provides a collection of catalytic benchmarks for distinct classes of active site functionality. Through key choices in data access, availability, and traceability, CatTestHub seeks to balance the fundamental information needs of chemical catalysis and the FAIR data design principles. Details of the database architecture and the means through which to navigate it are presented, highlighting examples of catalytic insights readily drawn from the available benchmarking data. In its current iteration, CatTestHub spans over 250 unique experimental data points, collected over 24 solid catalysts, that facilitated the turnover of 3 distinct catalytic chemistries. Here, a roadmap is presented through which to expand the open-access platform that serves as a community wide benchmark, primarily through continuous addition of kinetic information on select catalytic systems by members of the heterogeneous catalysis community at large.

Benchmark↗

Perfectly Cold Crystals: What Happens When They Are X-rayed?

For many macromolecular crystals the cryo-preservation of these crystals during X-ray data collection is of crucial importance, particularly at synchrotron facilities where the crystals rapidly receive a high dose of radiation. A practical variable to ensure adequate preservation is the variation of the cryo-protectant present when the crystal is preserved. Our initial approach to study X-ray diffraction data quality as a function of cryo-protectant present when preserving a xylose isomerase crystal shows that the data quality can be tremendously improved by recipe adjustment. Guided by crystal mosaicity estimates, we optimized crystal growth conditions to obtain cryo-preserved xylose isomerase crystals that withstand a very high dose of X-rays, with only the smallest amount of radiation damage at ultra-high resolution (1.2Angstroms). The rate at which damage occurs allowed us to collect a series of complete data sets, which show how the data degradation proceeds over time. We are here presenting data for the xylose isomerase crystallization recipe improvement and our interpretation of the crystal degradation process during X-ray data collection.

vanderWoerd, Mark↗

Observational data from uncrewed systems over Southern Great Plains

Uncrewed Systems (UxS), including uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon/kite systems (TBS), are significantly expanding observational capabilities in atmospheric science. Rapid adaptation of these platforms and the advancement of miniaturized instruments have resulted in an expanding number of data sets captured under various environmental conditions by the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. In 2021, observational data collected using ARM UxS platforms, including seven TigerShark UAS flights and 133 tethered balloon system (TBS) flights, were archived by the ARM Data Center and made publicly available to the user community https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/#/results/s::sgp*U3 and https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/#/results/s::sgp*tbs. These data streams provide new perspectives on spatial variability of atmospheric and surface parameters, helping to address critical science questions in Earth system science research. This manuscript describes the DOE UAS/TBS datasets, including information on the acquisition, collection, and quality control processes, and highlights the potential scientific contributions using UAS and TBS platforms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Iron precipitation under controlled oxygen flow: Mineralogical implications for BIF precursors in the Archean ocean

Banded iron formation (BIF) deposition in the Archean ocean is thought to have been initiated by the oxidation of dissolved iron into ferric primary precursor phases that descended through the water column and were deposited on the seafloor. Effective interpretation of the trace element and isotopic composition of BIFs in the geologic record requires an understanding of the identity and longevity of those precursor phases. Temporal and spatial variation in oxidant concentration and ocean chemistry may have driven precursor mineralogy. Furthermore, precursor phases may undergo transitions during descent and burial. This experimental study follows the evolution of iron mineralogy, speciation, and redox state during the precipitation of iron under variable oxygen fluxes and in fluids containing different iron-complexing anions (chloride, sulfate, and phosphate). Additionally, suspensions collected after incomplete oxidation were anoxically aged to simulate changes to precursor mineralogy during descent below the seawater redoxcline. Results from X-ray diffraction, sequential dissolution, colorimetric determination of Fe redox state, and Fe K-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy showed that under all experimental conditions, intermediate precipitates collected before complete iron uptake contained mineralized ferrous iron. Purely ferric mineral assemblages were not observed until iron was removed from solution. In low-oxygen experiments, intermediate precipitates contained phases with stoichiometric Fe 2+ , including magnetite, vivianite, and green rust (GR). Chloride green rust (GR1) had more ferric iron than sulfate green rust (GR2) and more readily transitioned to magnetite via disproportionation. GR2 was stable over a broader range of iron uptake; magnetite appeared mainly as an additional oxidation product in sulfate solution. In high oxygen experiments, mineralized ferrous iron occurred in amorphous phases or as a non-stoichiometric component in ferric oxides; final ferric assemblages were less crystalline than in low-oxygen equivalents. Low concentrations of phosphate increased the total iron oxidation rate, but also increased the ferrous content of intermediate precipitates. The incorporation of phosphate stabilized GR2 and facilitated GR2 precipitation over a larger range of iron uptake. In higher concentrations of phosphate, vivianite and poorly crystalline ferric hydroxides formed in place of GR. Here, these findings suggest that over a range of possible ocean chemistries, mixed-valence phases may have been short lived but relevant precursors to BIF. Additionally, anionic chemistry and oxidant concentration are shown to influence the crystallinity and chemical resistivity of final ferric assemblages, affecting their reactivity during later anoxic burial.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Schneider Springs Fire Study 2023 for Ecosystem Respiration Rates: Surface Water Chemistry and Hydrologic Sensor Data across the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA (v2)

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of spatial variability in wildfire impacts across the Yakima River Basin. Data provided within this dataset were generated from sample collection across 17 total sites (8 sites affected by a recent wildfire, 9 sites unaffected by a recent wildfire) within multiple rivers throughout the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA from May-July 2023. Fire affected sites are defined as those affected by the 2021 Schneider Springs Fire, based on the drainage area of the streams being within the 2021 Schneider Springs Fire burn perimeter or not (Figure 1, below). The contents include surface water geochemistry data (dissolved organic carbon; total dissolved nitrogen; total suspended solids); short-term sonde data (specific conductivity; turbidity; pH; chlorophyll A; temperature); stream depth data; stream velocity; manual chamber open channel respiration data; sensor time-series data (oxygen; water pressure; barometric pressure); field metadata (including qualitative information on in stream and river corridor characteristics); and environmental context photos taken in the field. The dataset also includes a summary file of the sensor data and plots of the sensor data. Sensors were only recovered at 15 out of the 17 sites, and not all sensors were recovered at all 15 sites (see Methods section for more details), therefore all data does not exist at all sites. Data from a 2022 study at the same sites, as well as additional sites, can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1969566. The data package was originally published in November 2023. It was updated in June 2025 (v2; modified files). See the change history section in the readme for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. This dataset is comprised of one folder with field photos and one main data folder with two subfolders. The main data folder consists of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) field protocol; (5) readme; (6) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (7) stream depth and averages. The sensor data subfolder consists of (1) sensor installation methods summary; (2) stream velocity; and (3) six subfolders. The BarotrollAtm (barometric pressure; temperature), DepthHOBO (water pressure; temperature), MantaRiver (specific conductivity; turbidity; pH; chlorophyll A; temperature), EXO (specific conductivity; pH; temperature), miniDOT (dissolved oxygen; temperature), and miniDOTManualChamber (dissolved oxygen; temperature) contain time-series data, plots, and summary files. The sample data subfolder consists of (1) total suspended solids (TSS) data; (2) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (3) total dissolved nitrogen (TN) data and averages; and (4) methods codes. All files are .csv, .pdf, .jpg, .jpeg, or .mov.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Temporal Study 2022-2024: Sample-Based Surface Water Dissolved Inorganic Carbon, Dissolved Organic Carbon, Total Nitrogen, Stable Isotopes, and Total Suspended Solids from across Multiple Watersheds in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of temporal variability in sediment respiration rates in the Yakima River Basin. The dataset provides geochemistry data generated from samples collected at bi-weekly or monthly intervals at six sites across the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA. Sample and sensor data from previous years (2021-2022) can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1898912 and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1892054, respectively. Related sensor data from 2022-2024 will be published separately. This dataset is comprised of one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; (4) field metadata; (5) dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and averages; (6) dissolved organic carbon (DOC; reported as non-purgeable organic carbon; NPOC) and averages; (7) total dissolved nitrogen (TN) and averages; (8) total suspended solids (TSS); (9) stable isotopes; (10) surface water sampling protocol; (11) sensor protocol; (12) methods codes; and (13) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file. All files are .csv or .pdf. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. For data and scripts associated with "Shifts in rain-snow partitioning drive faster water transit times in the US Pacific Northwest" (Butler et al., 2026), go to https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3025481

18-O↗

Development of Energy Storage: Cost models

Energy storage technologies offer a promising solution to electric grid stability issues associated with the integration of variable renewable generators. The capability to match the electrical power output to instantaneous fluctuations in grid demand is crucial to ensure continuity of service. Including energy storage capability in an integrated energy system (IES) can provide the flexibility needed to meet variable electric demand and reduce the load following demands place on the reactor. In this report, economic data collected for energy storage (ES) technologies are described to support the objective of assessing the profitability of ES integration within the IES framework. In particular, there is a growing interest in thermal energy storage (TES) given its unique capability for long-duration storage for improving electricity reliability at a low levelized cost. It is common practice to evaluate the total lifetime cost and profitability before commercializing new technologies. In this report we identify and examine the models needed to better understand the economics of thermal energy storage. We extend the TES cost model in RAVEN in the context of a balance of plant (BOP) that incorporates thermal storage. To focus the discussion, following a general overview of the most promising TES technologies, we consider a use case that involves a sensible heat, two-tank, molten-salt system. Structural and operational details are reported to identify the source of construction capital expenditure and operation and maintenance cost. A detailed description of the different cost items is provided as well as the cost scaling with different storage capacity and power ratings for capacity optimization purpose. In addition, the capital expenditure and the recurring cost of representative two-tank, molten salt coupled with concentrated solar plants are provided for readers’ reference. The ES use case is noteworthy as it is in the pilot stage of commercialization. We identify those areas that would benefit from an increased economic focus to obtain a more complete compilation of cost data. We also describe the thermal coupling issues that arise from integration of the two-tank molten salt thermal energy storage system with a BOP, which is the subject of our current research. Some components of costs will need to be evaluated through dedicated technoeconomic analysis in future modeling activities using modeling procedures proposed in this report. With the data presented and the procedures described in this report, sufficiently accurate models can be implemented for the solution of both the power dispatch and the capacity expansion problems within the RAVEN-based HYBRID framework.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Results from a multi-laboratory ocean metaproteomic intercomparison: effects of LC-MS acquisition and data analysis procedures

Metaproteomics is an increasingly popular methodology that provides information regarding the metabolic functions of specific microbial taxa and has potential for contributing to ocean ecology and biogeochemical studies. A blinded multi-laboratory intercomparison was conducted to assess comparability and reproducibility of taxonomic and functional results and their sensitivity to methodological variables. Euphotic zone samples from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) in the North Atlantic Ocean collected by in situ pumps and the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) Clio were distributed with a paired metagenome, and one-dimensional (1D) liquid chromatographic data-dependent acquisition mass spectrometry analysis was stipulated. Analysis of mass spectra from seven laboratories through a common bioinformatic pipeline identified a shared set of 1056 proteins from 1395 shared peptide constituents. Quantitative analyses showed good reproducibility: pairwise regressions of spectral counts between laboratories yielded R 2 values averaged 0.62±0.11, and a Sørensen similarity analysis of the top 1000 proteins revealed 70 %–80 % similarity between laboratory groups. Taxonomic and functional assignments showed good coherence between technical replicates and different laboratories. A bioinformatic intercomparison study, involving 10 laboratories using eight software packages, successfully identified thousands of peptides within the complex metaproteomic datasets, demonstrating the utility of these software tools for ocean metaproteomic research. Lessons learned and potential improvements in methods were described. Future efforts could examine reproducibility in deeper metaproteomes, examine accuracy in targeted absolute quantitation analyses, and develop standards for data output formats to improve data interoperability. Together, these results demonstrate the reproducibility of metaproteomic analyses and their suitability for microbial oceanography research, including integration into global-scale ocean surveys and ocean biogeochemical models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Historical and projected future runoff over the Mekong River basin

The Mekong River (MR) crosses the borders and connects six countries, including China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. It provides critical water resources and supports natural and agricultural ecosystems, socioeconomic development, and the livelihoods of the people living in this region. Understanding changes in the runoff of this important international river under projected climate change is critical for water resource management and climate change adaptation planning. However, research on long-term runoff dynamics for the MR and the underlying drivers of runoff variability remains scarce. Here, we analyse historical runoff variations from 1971 to 2020 based on runoff gauge data collected from eight hydrological stations along the MR. With these runoff data, we then evaluate the runoff simulation performance of five global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by four global climate models (GCMs) under the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Furthermore, based on the best simulation combination, we quantify the impact of future climate change on river runoff changes in the MR. The result shows that the annual runoff in the MR has not changed significantly in the past 5 decades, while the establishment of dams and reservoirs in the basin visibly affected the annual runoff distribution. The ensemble-averaged result of the Water Global Assessment and Prognosis version 2 (WaterGAP2; i.e. GHM) forced by four GCMs has the best runoff simulation performance. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; i.e. RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), the runoff of the MR is projected to increase significantly (p<0.05); e.g. 3.81 ± 3.47 m 3 s -1 a -1 (9 ± 8 % increase in 100 years) at the upper reach under RCP2.6 and 16.36 ± 12.44 m 3 s -1 a -1 (13 ±10 % increase in 100 years) at the lower reach under RCP6.0. In particular, under the RCP6.0 scenario, the increase in annual runoff is most pronounced in the middle and lower reaches, due to increased precipitation and snowmelt. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the runoff distribution in different seasons varies obviously, increasing the risk of flooding in the wet season and drought in the dry season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗