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Filling the Gaps: A Bayesian Mixture Model for Imputing Missing Soil Water Content Data
ABSTRACT Soil water content (SWC) data are central to evaluating how soil moisture varies over time and space and influences critical plant and ecosystem functions, especially in water‐limited drylands. However, sensors that record SWC at high frequencies often malfunction, leading to incomplete timeseries and limiting our understanding of dryland ecosystem dynamics. We developed an analytical approach to impute missing SWC data, which we tested at six eddy flux tower sites along an elevation gradient in the southwestern United States. We impute missing data as a mixture of linearly interpolated SWC between the observed endpoints of a missing data gap and SWC simulated by an ecosystem water balance model (SOILWAT2). Within a Bayesian framework, we allowed the relative utility (mixture weight) of each component (linearly interpolated vs. SOILWAT2) to vary by depth, site and gap characteristics. We explored “fixed” weights versus “dynamic” weights that vary as a function of cumulative precipitation, average temperature, and time since the start of the gap. Both models estimated missing SWC data well ( R 2 = 0.70–0.88 vs. 0.75–0.91 for fixed vs. dynamic weights, respectively), but the utility of linearly interpolated versus SOILWAT2 values depended on site and depth. SOILWAT2 was more useful for more arid sites, shallower depths, longer and warmer gaps and gaps that received greater precipitation. Overall, the mixture model reliably gap‐fills SWC, while lending insight into processes governing SWC dynamics. This approach to impute missing data could be adapted to accommodate more than two mixture components and other types of environmental timeseries.
U.S. Scientific Leadership: Addressing Energy, Ecosystems, Climate, and Sustainable Prosperity
Beginning in 2019, the director of the DOE Office of Science began issuing first-of-a-kind charges to the federal advisory committees of several Office of Science programs, asking them to benchmark the programs' international research competitiveness. This report describes the Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Committee's (BERAC) assessment in response to the charge. The document (1) benchmarks BER's programmatic investments and science contributions over the last decade and (2) provides actionable recommendations to realize emerging science opportunities over the next decade.
Conducting more inclusive solar geoengineering research: A feminist science framework
Solar geoengineering, or deliberate climate modification, has been receiving increased attention in recent years. Given the far-reaching consequences of any potential solar geoengineering deployments, it is prudent to identify inherent biases, blind spots, and other potential issues at all stages of the research process. Here we articulate a feminist science-based framework to concretely describe how solar geoengineering researchers can be more inclusive of different perspectives and potentially contradictory conclusions, in the process illuminating potential implicit bias and enhancing the conclusions that can be gained from their studies. Importantly, this framework is an adoptable method of practice that can be refined, with the aim of conducting better research in solar geoengineering. As an illustration, we retrospectively apply this framework to a well-read solar geoengineering study (also led by the first author of this study), improving transparency by revealing its implicit values, conclusions made from its evidence base, and the methodologies that study pursues. We conclude here with a set of recommendations for the geoengineering research community whereby more inclusive research can become a regular part of practice. Throughout this process, we illustrate how feminist science scholars can use this approach to study climate modeling.
American cities in a time of global environmental change: the case of the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative
The Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC) Urban Integrated Field Laboratory seeks a new paradigm for urban climate research. Motivated by deep uncertainties in urban climate and the future of urban systems, BSEC works collaboratively across institutions and stakeholder groups to co-generate the science needed to advance energy security and resilience to extreme events across the city of Baltimore, Maryland, USA, and to do so in a manner that can inform similar efforts in other cities. BSEC begins with stakeholder priorities (health, affordable energy, etc) and designs observation networks and models to deliver climate science to address them. This takes the form of an iterative collaborative cycle, in which an initial research strategy is repeatedly updated in conversation with community partners, and researchers and stakeholders learn from each other. To date, this cycle has included multiple rounds of collaborative deliberation on urban heat mitigation, in which a multicriteria decision tool has been updated with more community-relevant spatial structure and modified optimization metrics. The guiding objective of this cycle is to inform potential ‘secure and resilient pathways’ for energy and infrastructure. In doing so, BSEC addresses fundamental urban science questions in natural and social sciences. It also tests our ability to integrate this science in a manner that advances participatory decision-making for urban resilience.
Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century
Abstract Climate change and global urbanization have often been anticipated to increase future population exposure (frequency and intensity) to extreme weather over the coming decades. Here we examine how changes in urban land extent, population, and climate will respectively and collectively affect spatial patterns of future population exposures to climate extremes (including hot days, cold days, heavy rainfalls, and severe thunderstorm environments) across the continental U.S. at the end of the 21st century. Different from common impressions, we find that urban land patterns can sometimes reduce rather than increase population exposures to climate extremes, even heat extremes, and that spatial patterns instead of total quantities of urban land are more influential to population exposures. Our findings lead to preliminary suggestions for embedding long-term climate resilience in urban and regional land-use system designs, and strongly motivate searches for optimal spatial urban land patterns that can robustly moderate population exposures to climate extremes throughout the 21st century.
Applying a science‐based systems perspective to dispel misconceptions about climate effects of forest bioenergy
Abstract The scientific literature contains contrasting findings about the climate effects of forest bioenergy, partly due to the wide diversity of bioenergy systems and associated contexts, but also due to differences in assessment methods. The climate effects of bioenergy must be accurately assessed to inform policy‐making, but the complexity of bioenergy systems and associated land, industry and energy systems raises challenges for assessment. We examine misconceptions about climate effects of forest bioenergy and discuss important considerations in assessing these effects and devising measures to incentivize sustainable bioenergy as a component of climate policy. The temporal and spatial system boundary and the reference (counterfactual) scenarios are key methodology choices that strongly influence results. Focussing on carbon balances of individual forest stands and comparing emissions at the point of combustion neglect system‐level interactions that influence the climate effects of forest bioenergy. We highlight the need for a systems approach, in assessing options and developing policy for forest bioenergy that: (1) considers the whole life cycle of bioenergy systems, including effects of the associated forest management and harvesting on landscape carbon balances; (2) identifies how forest bioenergy can best be deployed to support energy system transformation required to achieve climate goals; and (3) incentivizes those forest bioenergy systems that augment the mitigation value of the forest sector as a whole. Emphasis on short‐term emissions reduction targets can lead to decisions that make medium‐ to long‐term climate goals more difficult to achieve. The most important climate change mitigation measure is the transformation of energy, industry and transport systems so that fossil carbon remains underground. Narrow perspectives obscure the significant role that bioenergy can play by displacing fossil fuels now, and supporting energy system transition. Greater transparency and consistency is needed in greenhouse gas reporting and accounting related to bioenergy.
Contrasting age-dependent leaf acclimation strategies drive vegetation greening across deciduous broadleaf forests in mid- to high latitudes
Increasing leaf area and extending vegetation growing seasons are two primary drivers of global greening, which has emerged as one of the most significant responses to climate change. However, it remains unclear how these two leaf acclimation strategies would vary across forests at a large spatial scale. Here, in this study, using multiple satellite-based datasets and field measurements, we analysed the temporal changes (Δ) in maximal leaf area index (LAI max ) and length of the growing season (LOS) from 2002 to 2021 across deciduous broadleaf forests (DBFs) in the middle to high latitudes. Contrary to the widely held assumption of coordination, our results revealed a negative correlation between ΔLAI max and ΔLOS. Notably, the trade-offs between ΔLAImax and ΔLOS were strongly explained by stand age. Younger DBFs, with lower baseline LAI max , predominantly located in eastern Asia, displayed an increase in LAI max with small changes in LOS. This acquisitive strategy facilitated younger DBFs to grow more photosynthetically efficient leaves with low leaf mass per area, enhancing their light use efficiency. Conversely, older DBFs with a higher baseline LAI max , primarily located in North America and Europe, extended their LOS by increasing leaf mass per area. This conservative strategy facilitated older DBFs to produce thicker, but less photosynthetically efficient leaves, resulting in decreased light use efficiency. Our findings offer new insights into the contrasting changes in leaf area and growing season length and highlight their divergent impacts on ecosystem functioning.
The Global Spectra-Trait Initiative: A database of paired leaf spectroscopy and functional traits associated with leaf photosynthetic capacity (v1.0.0)
The Global Spectra-Trait Initiative (GSTI) aims to generate generalizable spectra trait models using reflectance data to predict leaf traits associated with the photosynthesis capacity of leaves. It comprises a synthesized dataset of leaf trait data, input datasets and code. Leaf traits include the maximum carboxylation rate of rubisco (Vcmax), the maximum electron transport rate (Jmax), the dark respiration, as well as the prediction of leaf nitrogen, leaf mass per area (LMA), and leaf water content (LWC). The dataset comprises >7500 paired observations from around 400 species from a broad range of biomes. This dataset comprises a zip file of the GSTI GitHub repository (https://github.com/plantphys/gsti), the synthesized database (.csv) and database metadata files. This dataset was updated on 2025-12-12 with minor edits to mirror the accepted manuscript version and GitHub release (Version 1.0.0 (ESSD accepted version)). Edits included minor changes to the project documentation on GitHub and removal of 12 duplicate entries from the database.
Interactions Between Climate Mean and Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability
ABSTRACT Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate mean state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing variability , will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial‐design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (−16% gross primary production), carbon pools (−35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (−33% and −22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively). By unambiguously parsing the effects of changing climate mean versus variability and quantifying their nonadditive impacts, this study lays a foundation for more robust understanding and prediction of agroecosystems' vulnerability to 21st‐century climate change.
A Unified Data Infrastructure for Biological and Environmental Research: A Report from the BER Advisory Committee
The Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science supports large-scale data generation efforts across its two divisions: Biological Systems Science and Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences. These efforts include user facilities in atmospheric radiation measurements, genomics, metabolomics, proteomics, compute, and imaging. In addition, BER supports the development of plant-based fuels; research in biosystems design, environmental microbiomes, and atmospheric systems; energy flux monitoring; climate-based ecosystem experiments; pathogen biopreparedness; and modeling of climate, urban interfaces, and interactions between people and energy resources. For data access, BER supports community data services at its user facilities, along with specialized data initiatives for Earth and environmental science, climate modeling, genomic and microbial analysis, and multisector dynamics modeling.
Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets
Global agricultural commodity markets are highly integrated among major producers. Prices are driven by aggregate supply rather than what happens in individual countries in isolation. Furthermore, estimating the effects of weather-induced shocks on production, trade patterns and prices hence requires a globally representative weather data set. Recently, two data sets that provide daily or hourly records, GMFD and ERA5-Land, became available. Starting with the US, a data rich region, we formally test whether these global data sets are as good as more fine-scaled country-specific data in explaining yields and whether they estimate similar response functions. While GMFD and ERA5-Land have lower predictive skill for US corn and soybeans yields than the fine-scaled PRISM data, they still correctly uncover the underlying non-linear temperature relationship. All specifications using daily temperature extremes under any of the weather data sets outperform models that use a quadratic in average temperature. Correctly capturing the effect of daily extremes has a larger effect than the choice of weather data. In a second step, focusing on Sub Saharan Africa, a data sparse region, we confirm that GMFD and ERA5-Land have superior predictive power to CRU, a global weather data set previously employed for modeling climate effects in the region.
Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling
The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used elements of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. Successive phases of CMIP have supported strong results in science and substantially influence international climate policy formulation. This paper responds to both interest in exploiting CMIP data standards in a broader range of climate modelling activities and a need to achieve greater clarity about the significance and intention of variables in the CMIP Data Request. As Earth system modelling archives grow in scale and complexity, there are emerging problems associated with weak standardisation at the variable collection level. That is, there are good standards covering how specific variables should be archived, but this paper fills a gap in the standardisation of which variables should be archived. The ESM-BCV list is intended as a resource for ESM intercomparison projects (MIPs) developing requests to enable greater consistency among MIPs and as a reference for modelling centres to enhance consistency within MIPs. Provisional planning for the CMIP7 Data Request exploits the ESM-BCVs as a core element. The baseline variable list includes 98 variables which have modest or minor data volume footprints and could be generated systematically when simulations are produced and archived for exploitation by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) community. A further 35 variables are classed as “high volume” and are only suitable for production when the resource implications are justified.
Assessment of Extinction‐, Satellite‐, and Model‐Based Vertical Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) Retrieval Methods Using Airborne CCN Measurements Over the Southern Great Plains
Abstract Accurate estimates of the vertical profile of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration are crucial to better quantify aerosol‐cloud interactions. We assessed the correlation between the vertical CCN concentrations obtained from extinction‐, satellite‐, and model‐based retrieval methods and airborne CCN concentrations collected at 0.24% supersaturation within the 3, 9, 27, and 81 km regions centered over the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User Facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) site during the spring and summer of 2016. The extinction profiles at a wavelength 355 nm were provided by the ground‐based Raman lidar. Our analysis showed moderate correlation between dry‐corrected extinction and airborne CCN data. We found the retrieved number concentration of CCN (RNCCN) method showed regression best‐fit slopes close to unity and consistent prediction errors for the majority of the data. The Lenhardt et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt‐16‐2037‐2023 ) method showed similar conclusions but only during spring, whereas the Mamouri and Ansmann (2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐16‐5905‐2016 ) method showed poor correlation. The Shinozuka et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐15‐7585‐2015 ) satellite‐based method exhibited reasonable agreement during summer but poor correlation during periods where both high (∼1,400 #/cm 3 ) and low (∼50 #/cm 3 ) airborne CCN concentrations were observed. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis modeled 3‐D CCN data set showed a moderate to weak positive correlation but performed poorly at high airborne CCN concentrations. Our analysis suggests the extinction‐based RNCCN method performed better than other methods across most observation periods under the diverse meteorological conditions observed at the SGP site.
Environmental microbiome engineering for the mitigation of climate change
Abstract Environmental microbiome engineering is emerging as a potential avenue for climate change mitigation. In this process, microbial inocula are introduced to natural microbial communities to tune activities that regulate the long‐term stabilization of carbon in ecosystems. In this review, we outline the process of environmental engineering and synthesize key considerations about ecosystem functions to target, means of sourcing microorganisms, strategies for designing microbial inocula, methods to deliver inocula, and the factors that enable inocula to establish within a resident community and modify an ecosystem function target. Recent work, enabled by high‐throughput technologies and modeling approaches, indicate that microbial inocula designed from the top‐down, particularly through directed evolution, may generally have a higher chance of establishing within existing microbial communities than other historical approaches to microbiome engineering. We address outstanding questions about the determinants of inocula establishment and provide suggestions for further research about the possibilities and challenges of environmental microbiome engineering as a tool to combat climate change.
Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) (2021 Workshop Report)
In October 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) welcomed participants to the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) Workshop, hosted by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER)—Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR). The workshop is part of BER-ASCR’s ambition to more radically and aggressively advance prediction capabilities in the climate, Earth, and environmental sciences through the use of modern data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI). Advances in these capabilities are needed to improve predictions of climate change and extreme events that provide actionable information for planning and building resilience to their impacts.
A spatial evaluation of Arctic sea ice and regional limitations in CMIP6 historical simulations
The Arctic sea ice response to a warming climate is assessed in a subset of models participating in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using several metrics in comparison with satellite observations and results from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System and the Regional Arctic System Model. Our study examines the historical representation of sea ice extent, volume, and thickness using spatial analysis metrics, such as the integrated ice-edge error, Brier score, and Spatial Probability Score. We find that the CMIP6 multi-model mean captures the mean annual cycle and 1979-2014 sea ice trends remarkably well. However, individual models experience a wide range of uncertainty in the spatial distribution of sea ice when compared against satellite measurements and reanalysis data. Our metrics expose common and individual regional model biases, which sea ice temporal analyses alone do not capture. We identify large ice edge and ice thickness errors in Arctic sub-regions, implying possible model specific limitations in or lack of representation of some key physical processes. We postulate that many of them could be related to the oceanic forcing, especially in the marginal and shelf seas, where seasonal sea ice changes are not adequately simulated. We therefore conclude that an individual model’s ability to represent the observed/reanalysis spatial distribution still remains a challenge. We propose the spatial analysis metrics as useful tools to diagnose model limitations, narrow down possible processes affecting them, and guide future model improvements critical to the representation and projections of Arctic climate change.
Updraft Width Modulates Ambient Atmospheric Controls on Convective Cloud Depth
Abstract The depth of convective clouds affects vertical transport of atmospheric constituents, influencing downstream weather and climate. Atmospheric controls on the maximum depth reached by moist convection are investigated with radar‐tracked convective cells tagged with sounding‐derived atmospheric parameters from a field campaign in central Argentina. Regression analyses show that narrow (<12‐km diameter) and wide (>16‐km diameter) cell depths respond to disparate factors, where cell areas are defined using composite reflectivity signatures. Undiluted lifted parcel indices including convective available potential energy (CAPE) and level of neutral buoyancy (LNB) are top predictors of wide cell maximum depth while mid‐tropospheric relative humidity is the top predictor of narrow cell maximum depth. Because narrow cells are more numerous than wide cells, the overall outcome of the full cell population does not strongly correlate with CAPE and LNB conditions. Tracked cells and atmospheric conditions in a simulation with 3‐km grid spacing covering the field campaign produce similar results to those observed. Narrow cells that are relatively deep have a cooler and moister mid‐troposphere with weaker free tropospheric subsidence, while relatively deep wide cells have much warmer and moister lower tropospheric conditions. These atmospheric differences are present 1 hr before cell initiation at both a fixed observing site and variable cell initiation locations. Simulated narrow cell maximum equivalent potential temperature decreases with height at a rate similar to the ambient vertical gradient, causing these cells to fall short of their LNB and supporting the view that entrainment‐driven dilution is a dominant control on their depth.