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DOE OSTI2021

Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.

The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multimodel framework to analyze how compounding risks of climate-change impacts on demand and supply affect long-term planning decisions in the power system. In the southeast U.S., we found that compounding climate-change impacts could result in a 35% increase in installed capacity by 2050 relative to the reference case. Participation of renewables, particularly solar, in the fleet increased, driven mostly by the expected increase in summertime peak demand. Such capacity requirements would increase investment costs by approximately 31 billion (USD 2015) over the next 30 years, compared to the reference case. These changes in investment decisions align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Climate-Driven Divergence in Biophysical and Economic Impacts of Agrivoltaics

Increasing global demands for food and energy necessitate innovative land-use solutions. Agrivoltaics, colocating solar photovoltaics with agriculture, shows promise, but its widespread adoption faces complex biophysical and economic trade-offs in a changing climate. Here, we develop an integrated biophysical-economic modeling framework to quantify how agrivoltaics affect biophysical and economic impacts across the Midwestern United States under both current and project climate conditions. We find strong regional divergences driven by climate gradients. In the humid eastern Midwest, solar panel shading limits photosynthesis, leading to reduced yields (maize -24%; soybean -16%) and lower farmers' profitability (maize -16%; soybean -2%) compared to conventional agriculture. Conversely, in the semiarid western region, shading alleviates heat and water stress, moderating yield reductions for maize (-12%) and even boosting soybean yields (+6%), resulting in improved economic returns (-6% for maize; +9% for soybean), for a scenario with 33% photovoltaic ground coverage ratio. Although agrivoltaics generate substantial electrical energy across all regions, high upfront installation costs challenge solar developers compared to standalone solar photovoltaics. However, our analysis identifies “win-win” opportunities where soybean-based agrivoltaics in the semiarid region produce economic benefits for both farmers and solar developers, highlighting the necessity for region-specific designs tailored to local climate conditions. Critically, future climate projections indicate eastward expansion of semiarid conditions, broadening areas where agrivoltaics can mitigate crop yield penalties (even boosting yield) and improve overall profitability, especially under high-emission scenarios. The results provide a mechanistic and economically integrated understanding essential for developing evidence-based and region-specific strategies to scale agrivoltaics in a changing climate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

How Much Could Article 6 Enhance Nationally Determined Contribution Ambition Toward Paris Agreement Goals Through Economic Efficiency?

The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2°C. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by ~$\$300$ × 10 9 , which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO 2 /year mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO 2 /year currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonization in Climate Resilience Planning

Recent executive orders such as E.O. 14008 require federal agencies to address climate change by enhancing resilience and reducing emissions through decarbonization. Traditionally, federal agencies require their sites to develop preparedness plans, such as continuity of operations plans and/or more comprehensive resilience plans. When climate change is included in these plans, the focus tends to be on climate adaptation solutions such as hardening infrastructure and not on climate mitigation through decarbonization. However, with the ambitious emission reductions targets set out by the federal government, it is essential to provide resources and tools to support energy and water managers in achieving decarbonization goals. To achieve this, there is a need for decarbonization to be incorporated into existing resilience planning processes. We discuss a method of incorporating a decarbonization analysis into an existing resilience planning process to create a holistic framework that considers climate adaptation, climate mitigation, and risk reduction priorities when developing and prioritizing solutions for federal sites. Site managers and decision makers must be aware of potential opportunities and trade-offs in meeting energy and water performance goals, emission reductions goals, and climate adaptation goals when developing technological, operational, or institutional resilience solutions. By combining these processes, energy and water managers can minimize the additional level of effort to ensure that their sites are not only able to withstand climate-related energy and water disruptions, but also contribute to climate mitigation. A holistic approach can help federal agencies serve as a model for incorporating decarbonization strategies into site-level resilience planning for the rest of the nation.

Elliott, Douglas B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Perform Life Cycle Energy and GHG Emission Analysis, Select Candidate Refrigerant(s), Developing Heat Pump by Using Low-GWP Refrigerants and 5 mm Diameter Tubes

Reducing environmental impacts from the energy conversion systems has been an important research topic due to recent severe global climate changes. In residential buildings, the space heating and cooling are main energy consumers, which are relying on vapor compression based heat pumps. To mitigate the environmental impacts of residential systems, the heat pumps using low-GWP refrigerants and 5mm-tube heat exchangers are proposed to replace the conventional 9 mm or 7 mm tube heat exchangers. This research uses a simulation-based design method to optimize the refrigerant circuitries of a 5-ton low-GWP refrigerant heat pumps whose indoor and outdoor heat exchangers adopt 5 mm tubes. Heat pump systems using four commercially available low-GWP refrigerants (R454A, R454C, ARM20A and ARM20B) are optimized and compared with the baseline R410A system. The results indicate that directly replacing 9 mm tubes into 5mm tubes in the baseline systems induces heat pump performance degradation; by optimizing the 5 mm tube heat pumps with added tube rows, the system refrigerant charge is reduced up to 33% compared with the baseline; the optimized low-GWP 5 mm tube heat pumps offer the same or higher performance under both cooling and heating mode; that under cooling mode, the EER improvement is up to 10.7% and under heating mode the COP improvement is up to 3.4%; and a smart flow control device to maintain counter-flow circuitry pattern on both operating modes can improve the heating performance of 5 mm tube optimized system by up to 3.0%. In an effort to better understand the environmental impacts of these systems, life cycle climate performance (LCCP) evaluation method is used to assess the baseline and optimized systems. LCCP considers the direct and indirect emissions of the system over the course of its lifetime from manufacturing to disposal. Our analyses indicate that the optimized systems using 5mm tubes and low-GWP refrigerants can reduce life-cycle CO 2 emission significantly. And improving system efficiency is the most effective way to reduce the emission of low-GWP refrigerant systems. This report shows that using 5 mm diameter tubes in heat exchangers is a feasible approach to develop heat pumps with low-GWP refrigerants. Using the proposed design approach can yield higher system efficiency with lower environmental impact.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Albedo-induced global warming impact of Conservation Reserve Program grasslands converted to annual and perennial bioenergy crops

Abstract Climate benefit assessments of bioenergy crops often focus on biogeochemical impacts, paying little if any attention to biogeophysical impacts. However, land conversions required for large-scale bioenergy crop production are substantial and may directly affect the climate by altering surface energy balance. In the US, such land conversions are likely to be met in part by converting Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grassland to bioenergy crops. Here, we converted three 22 year old CRP smooth brome grass fields into no-till corn, switchgrass, or restored prairie bioenergy crops. We assessed the biogeophysical climate impact of the conversions using albedo changes relative to unconverted reference CRP grassland. The corn and perennial fields had higher annual albedo than the grassland they replaced—causing cooling of the local climate. The cooling of the corn field occurred solely during the non-growing season—especially when surfaces were snow-covered, whereas the cooling of the perennial fields was more prominent during the growing season. Compared to biogeochemical impacts with fossil fuel offsets for the same land conversions over eight years, the annual albedo-induced climate benefits add ∼35% and ∼78% to the annual biogeochemical benefits provided from the switchgrass and restored prairie fields, respectively, and offset ∼3.3% of the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the corn field. We conclude that albedo-induced climate mitigation from conversion of CRP lands to perennial but not annual bioenergy crops can be substantial, and future climate impact assessments of bioenergy crops should include albedo changes in addition to GHG balances in order to better inform climate policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Protecting Biodiversity through Forest Management: Lessons Learned and Strategies for Success

The strong links among biodiversity, forests, and climate change require that forces affecting them be addressed simultaneously. Here we summarize findings and lessons learned from decades of field work exploring ways to balance conservation with development, while effectively addressing drivers of deforestation and biodiversity loss. Examples are provided for approaches to forest management that support both biodiversity conservation and greenhouse gas mitigation. Causes of deforestation are reviewed and recommendations provided for specific steps that would slow the loss of high conservation-value forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

In-Situ Pipeline Coatings for Methane Emissions Mitigation and Quantification from Natural Gas Pipelines

Addressing the current health of the nation’s existing 3 million miles of pipeline infrastructure is key to preventing further climate change. In 2020, natural gas production exceeded 34 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). Roughly 75% of natural gas consists of methane (CH 4 ), which is up to 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) at trapping heat within the atmosphere over a 100-year period, and studies from the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) estimate approximately 2% of all the natural gas produced will be lost during normal operations due to unaddressed leaks. This does not even consider the risks of major disaster due to pipeline failure, or the losses and extra fuel costs incurred due to corrosion and scale deposits in under-maintained pipelines. The objective of the proposed research is to demonstrate the protection capabilities and economic benefits of Oceanit’s internal pipe surface treatment, known as DragX™. DragX™ is a chemically resistant, water-and-oil repellent nanocomposite system that can be readily applied in-situ on natural gas transmission and distribution pipelines with a minimum of surface preparation. This makes it an ideal candidate for in-place retrofitting and refurbishment of existing pipelines without the need for expensive extraction and replacement. DragX™ is also able to significantly reduce the surface roughness, and subsequently, the frictional drag forces within a pipeline, improving throughput, decreasing energy costs of pressurization and pumping, and allowing for longer pipeline operation without interruption, reducing the methane emitted during pipe isolation and venting. As part of this project, Oceanit has utilized the Department of Energy’s support to fully develop, de-risk and prove the DragX™ core technology is both economically viable and commercially desirable to pipeline operators and energy companies alike. DragX™ material properties were optimized in this effort both for ease of applicability, to provide value in certain key parameters, and was demonstrated on pilot applications exceeding 2 miles in length. Beyond the already field demonstrated applications, this innovative nanocomposite surface treatment has the potential to be the backbone for CO 2 and Hydrogen transporting pipeline infrastructure. The learnings from this project could accelerate the deployment of surface treatment technologies related to the energy transition infrastructure, thus benefitting the clean energy initiatives in the United States and all around the world.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing climate-smart crop performance in arid agrivoltaics systems: effects of photovoltaic shading and soil amendments on tepary bean growth, yield, and associated soil microbiome

As climate change expands the world’s arid and semiarid regions, sustainable systems that integrate food and energy production are becoming increasingly critical. Agrivoltaics—co-locating crops with photovoltaic (PV) panels—offers a dual land-use strategy that mitigates environmental stress by shading crops, conserving soil moisture, and enhancing PV efficiency. While climate-smart crops like the tepary bean ( Phaseolus acutifolius ) are well adapted to heat and drought, little is known about how these crops and their associated soil microbiomes respond to the unique microclimates created by PV shading. This study evaluated tepary bean performance and plant–microbial interactions under PV-shade vs. no shade across three soil amendment treatments at two experimental sites. We assessed plant traits including germination, phenology, biomass, height, as well as yield and bean morphology, alongside shifts in soil microbial composition and functional potential. Plants grown under PV-shade were generally taller, with extended reproductive periods and higher yields: 42% of shaded plants produced beans compared to only 8% under full sun. Shaded plants also produced rounder, higher-quality beans, whereas non-shaded plants yielded flatter, less developed beans. Microbial community composition was more strongly influenced by amendment and site conditions than by shading alone. Key microbial taxa (e.g., Glomeromycetes, Desulfobacterota ) and predicted functions (e.g., denitrification, nitrogen-respiration, sulfate reduction) were associated with differences in plant performance. Finally, combining agrivoltaic systems with targeted soil amendments can enhance crop yield and soil microbial functionality—offering a promising strategy for sustainable agriculture in arid landscapes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Summary Data for paper titled: Influence of soil depth, irrigation, and plant genotype on the soil microbiome, metaphenome, and carbon chemistry

Climate change is causing an increase in drought in many soil ecosystems and a loss of soil organic carbon. Calcareous soils may partially mitigate these losses via carbon capture and storage. Here, we aimed to determine how irrigation-supplied soil moisture and perennial plants impact biotic and abiotic soil properties that underpin deep soil carbon chemistry in an unfertilized calcareous soil. Soil was sampled up to one meter in depth from irrigated and planted field treatments and analyzed using a suite of omics and chemical analyses. Carbon cycling processes in the surface soil were dominated by plant-microbe interactions that drive organic carbon cycling, whereas inorganic carbon chemistry dominated in deeper soil layers. Both irrigation and plant cover impacted organic and inorganic carbon pools in the soil profiles. This study reveals the complex interactions between water, plants, minerals, and microorganisms that govern organic and inorganic pools of soil carbon at different depths.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for Influence of soil depth, irrigation, and plant genotype on the soil microbiome, metaphenome, and carbon chemistry: Summary Data

Naasko, Katherine I↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for Influence of soil depth, irrigation, and plant genotype on the soil microbiome, metaphenome, and carbon chemistry: Sequence Data

Naasko, Katherine I↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bioenergy and Climate Change in Ukraine: How climate can impact the sustainability of bioenergy production

The Russian invasion has exacerbated Ukraine’s energy security issues, prompting a shift toward diversifying energy supply sources. Additionally, strategic documents aim to align Ukraine’s energy system with EU climate requirements, focusing on reducing reliance on fossil fuels and advancing decarbonization efforts. This report focuses on the expansion of bioenergy as an alternative source of energy in Ukraine. Current assessments suggest that Ukraine has substantial bioenergy potential, primarily from agricultural residues and energy crops. However, the challenges posed by climate change and the ongoing war might impact the outcome of these projections. This report highlights the importance of integrating climate factors into energy modeling using tools like the integrated assessment models to provide a comprehensive understanding of Ukraine’s bioenergy potential under various climate scenarios. It also emphasizes the need for climate-smart agriculture and forestry practices to mitigate risks, enhance energy efficiency, and support resilient crop supplies. Recommendations for stakeholders include diversification of the energy supply sources, developing adaptation strategies, diversifying bioenergy feedstocks, and ensuring robust decision-making to navigate the impacts of climate change on Ukraine’s energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cascadia Burning: The historic, but not historically unprecedented, 2020 wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Abstract Wildfires devastated communities in Oregon and Washington in September 2020, burning almost as much forest west of the Cascade Mountain crest (“the westside”) in 2 weeks (~340,000 ha) as in the previous five decades (~406,00 ha). Unlike dry forests of the interior western United States, temperate rain forests of the Pacific Northwest have experienced limited recent fire activity, and debates surrounding what drove the 2020 fires, and management strategies to adapt to similar future events, necessitate a scientific evaluation of the fires. We evaluate five questions regarding the 2020 Labor Day fires: (1) How do the 2020 fires compare with historical fires? (2) How did the roles of weather and antecedent climate differ geographically and from the recent past (1979–2019)? (3) How do fire size and severity compare to other recent fires (1985–2019), and how did forest management and prefire forest structure influence burn severity? (4) What impact will these fires have on westside landscapes? and (5) How can we adapt to similar fires in the future? Although 5 of the 2020 fires were much larger than any others in the recent past and burned ~10 times the area in high‐severity patches >10,000 ha, the 2020 fires were remarkably consistent with historical fires. Reports from the early 1900s, along with paleo‐ and dendro‐ecological records, indicate similar and potentially even larger wildfires over the past millennium, many of which shared similar seasonality (late August/early September), weather conditions, and even geographic locations. Consistent with the largest historical fires, strong east winds and anomalously dry conditions drove the rapid spread of high‐severity wildfire in 2020. We found minimal difference in burn severity among stand structural types related to previous management in the 2020 fires. Adaptation strategies for similar fires in the future could benefit by focusing on ignition prevention, fire suppression, and community preparedness, as opposed to fuel treatments that are unlikely to mitigate fire severity during extreme weather. While scientific uncertainties remain regarding the nature of infrequent, high‐severity fires in westside forests, particularly under climate change, adapting to their future occurrence will require different strategies than those in interior, dry forests.

Reilly, Matthew J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change

Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience). Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience, yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators, has changed during the period 2000–2020. We show that tropical, arid and temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, probably related to increased water limitations and climate variability. By contrast, boreal forests show divergent local patterns with an average increasing trend in resilience, probably benefiting from warming and CO 2 fertilization, which may outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. These patterns emerge consistently in both managed and intact forests, corroborating the existence of common large-scale climate drivers. Reductions in resilience are statistically linked to abrupt declines in forest primary productivity, occurring in response to slow drifting towards a critical resilience threshold. Approximately 23% of intact undisturbed forests, corresponding to 3.32 Pg C of gross primary productivity, have already reached a critical threshold and are experiencing a further degradation in resilience. Together, these signals reveal a widespread decline in the capacity of forests to withstand perturbation that should be accounted for in the design of land-based mitigation and adaptation plans

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a key component of tropical climate variability, characterized by eastward and northeastward propagation of organized convection across the Indo-Pacific region. BSISO influences weather and climate extremes through atmospheric teleconnections, but its future changes and related extremes remain unclear. Here, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find that under a high-emission scenario, BSISO convection will shift eastward by ~3° (~300 km) in 2065–2099, driven by moisture profile changes associated with sea surface temperature warming over central-to-eastern Pacific. This eastward-shifted BSISO convection, along with a northward expansion of the westerly jet, strengthens the BSISO teleconnections that extend into broader areas of North America. These changes will increase the BSISO-related heatwave risks by 23% and wildfire risks by 3.5 times over northern North America compared to present-day conditions. The findings underscore the amplification of BSISO’s influence on extreme risks of extreme weather, emphasizing the need for improved adaptation and mitigation strategies for future climates.

BSISO teleconnection↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projecting spatiotemporally explicit effects of climate change on stream temperature: A model comparison and implications for coldwater fishes

Conservation planners and resource managers seek information about how the availability and locations of cold-water habitats will change in the future and how these predictions vary among models. In this work, we used a physical process-based model to demonstrate the implications of climate change for streamflow and water temperature in two watersheds with distinctive flow regimes: the Snoqualmie watershed (WA) and Siletz watershed (OR), USA. Our model incorporated a downscaled ensemble of global climate model outputs and was calibrated with in situ and remotely sensed water temperatures. Furthermore, we compared predictions from our processed-based model to those from a publicly available and widely used statistical model. The process-based model projected greater changes in summer maximum water temperatures for the mixed-rain-snow Snoqualmie watershed than for the rain-dominated Siletz watershed as a result of the near-complete loss of winter snowpack and significant reduction in summer flow in the Snoqualmie watershed expected by the 2080s. Both models projected generally similar future spatial patterns of maximum water temperature in the two rivers, with cool reaches distributed farther upstream and fewer in number. However, the process-based model projected higher spatial heterogeneity in water temperature due to our spatially explicit simulation of streamflow and because we calibrated the model with spatially continuous remotely sensed water temperature data. We used stream temperature projections to assess the vulnerability of Pacific salmon and trout to changes in the spatial distribution of cold-water habitats during August by the 2080s. Results suggest that salmonids may have fewer summertime cold-water habitats in both watersheds. Projected stream warming may further limit particular species and life stages, especially in the Snoqualmie watershed. Our comparison of models highlights the importance of considering what might be gained by using a process-based model for evaluating and prioritizing management actions that mitigate climate impacts on cold-water habitats for stream fishes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Soil Profile Rehabilitation for Pluvial Flood Mitigation Through Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Modeling

Pluvial flooding, driven by increasingly impervious surfaces and intense storm events, presents a growing challenge for urban areas worldwide. In Baltimore City, MD, USA, climate change, rapid urbanization, and aging stormwater infrastructure are exacerbating flooding impacts, resulting in significant socio-economic consequences. This study evaluated the effectiveness of a soil profile rehabilitation scenario using a 2D hydrodynamic modeling approach for the Tiffany Run watershed, Baltimore City. This study utilized different extreme storm events, a high-resolution (1 m) LiDAR Digital Terrain Model (DTM), building footprints, and hydrological soil data. These datasets were integrated into a fully coupled 2D hydrodynamic model, the City Catchment Analysis Tool (CityCAT), to simulate urban flood dynamics. The pre-soil rehabilitation simulation revealed a maximum water depth of 3.00 m in most areas, with hydrologic soil groups C and D, especially downstream of the study area. The post-soil rehabilitation simulation was targeted at vacant lots and public parcels, accounting for 33.20% of the total area of the watershed. This resulted in a reduced water depth of 2.50 m. Additionally, the baseline runoff coefficient of 0.49 decreased to 0.47 following the rehabilitation, and the model consistently recorded a peak runoff reduction rate of 4.10 across varying rainfall intensities. The validation using a contingency matrix demonstrated true-positive rates of 0.75, 0.50, 0.64, and 0 for the selected events, confirming the model’s capability at capturing real-world flood occurrences.

Baltimore City↗