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Precursor active galaxies, active galaxies and the X-ray and gamma-ray background

A description is presented of a model in which the X-ray and gamma-ray background can result from the superposition of radiation from active galaxies in different stages of their evolutionary history. This scheme is based on the generalization of a black-hole model developed for gamma-ray production in active galaxies by Leiter (1980). Both thermal and nonthermal accretion disk processes around massive rotating Kerr black holes are considered. Attention is given to cosmological conditions leading to precursor active galaxies (PAG), PAG as origin of the cosmic X-ray background, and the evolution of PAG into Seyfert galaxies as origin of the gamma-ray background. It is found that after spin-up of the central black hole an active galactic nucleus can generate nonthermal radiation very efficiently up to a few MeV.

Leiter, D.↗

Dark Matter Constraints from Observations of 25 Milky Way Satellite Galaxies with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

The dwarf spheroidal satellite galaxies of the Milky Way are some of the most dark-matter-dominated objects known. Due to their proximity, high dark matter content, and lack of astrophysical backgrounds, dwarf spheroidal galaxies are widely considered to be among the most promising targets for the indirect detection of dark matter via gamma rays. Here we report on gamma ray observations of 25 Milky Way dwarf spheroidal satellite galaxies based on 4 years of Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) data. None of the dwarf galaxies are significantly detected in gamma rays, and we present gamma ray flux upper limits between 500MeV and 500 GeV. We determine the dark matter content of 18 dwarf spheroidal galaxies from stellar kinematic data and combine LAT observations of 15 dwarf galaxies to constrain the dark matter annihilation cross section. We set some of the tightest constraints to date on the annihilation of dark matter particles with masses between 2 GeV and 10TeV into prototypical standard model channels. We find these results to be robust against systematic uncertainties in the LAT instrument performance, diffuse gamma ray background modeling, and assumed dark matter density profile.

satellite↗

Modeling the stellar contribution to the Galactic component of the diffuse soft X-ray background. I - Background fluxes and number counts

A combination of a stellar Galaxy model based on optical data, stellar X-ray luminosity functions derived from the full Einstein base, and a model for X-ray absorption derived from hydrogen column densities are used to estimate the contribution to the diffuse soft X-ray background flux from the main-sequence A, F, G, K, and M stars, and RS CVn stars, at various energies ranging from 0.1 to about 5 keV. Previous discrepancies between earlier estimates of the stellar contribution to the diffuse soft X-ray background are resolved; this stellar contribution to the diffuse soft X-ray background is found to be under 3 percent for photon energies less than energy I and J bands (about 0.8-2 keV), at a threshold sensitivity for point source detection about 10 exp -10 ergs/s sq cm. At low latitudes, stellar contribution estimates are less than 3 percent below 0.3 keV, 7-40 percent in the medium-energy bands, and 27-70 percent in the I and J bands. It is shown that while dM stars are the major contributors to the diffuse stellar flux, other stellar types contribute as much as 40 percent of this flux at the higher energies in the passband studied.

Kashyap, V.↗

A modeling study of SO(x)-NO(x)-hydrocarbon plumes and their transport to the background troposphere

The behavior of a complex urban plume and its transport to the background troposphere are analyzed in terms of a model including sulfur oxide, nitrogen oxide and hydrocarbon (HC) photochemistry. A reaction mechanism consisting of 73 NO(x), SO(x) and HC reactions is employed in a model taking account of plume dilution, entrainment, deposition and the development of a diurnal mixing layer from a ground-based nocturnal inversion. When simulation results are compared with field measurements of the urban plumes leaving St. Louis and Milwaukee, and a power plant within the Milwaukee plume, the predicted concentration profiles of NO(x), SO2 and O3 are found to be in close agreement with the measurement, although agreement with the rate of transformation of SO2 to SO4(2-) is less good. Simulations made for a hypothetical urban location under a range of background concentrations and initial HC concentrations show particulate sulfate concentrations to depend strongly on the HC/NO(x) ratio, indicating that the homogeneous gas-phase transformation may occur at night.

Balko, J. A.↗

Cold dark matter confronts the cosmic microwave background - Large-angular-scale anisotropies in Omega sub 0 + lambda 1 models

A new technique is used to compute the correlation function for large-angle cosmic microwave background anisotropies resulting from both the space and time variations in the gravitational potential in flat, vacuum-dominated, cold dark matter cosmological models. Such models with Omega sub 0 of about 0.2, fit the excess power, relative to the standard cold dark matter model, observed in the large-scale galaxy distribution and allow a high value for the Hubble constant. The low order multipoles and quadrupole anisotropy that are potentially observable by COBE and other ongoing experiments should definitively test these models.

Gorski, Krzysztof M.↗

Search for vector-like leptons coupling to first- and second-generation Standard Model leptons in pp collisions at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for pair production of vector-like leptons coupling to first- and second-generation Standard Model leptons is presented. The search is based on a dataset of proton-proton collisions at s$$ \sqrt{s} $$ = 13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1. Events are categorised depending on the flavour and multiplicity of leptons (electrons or muons), as well as on the scores of a deep neural network targeting particular signal topologies according to the decay modes of the vector-like leptons. In each of the signal regions, the scalar sum of the transverse momentum of the leptons and the missing transverse momentum is analysed. The main background processes are estimated using dedicated control regions in a simultaneous fit with the signal regions to data. No significant excess above the Standard Model background expectation is observed and limits are set at 95% confidence level on the production cross-sections of vector-like electrons and muons as a function of the vector-like lepton mass, separately for SU(2) doublet and singlet scenarios. The resulting mass lower limits are 1220 GeV (1270 GeV) and 320 GeV (400 GeV) for vector-like electrons (muons) in the doublet and singlet scenarios, respectively.

Aad, G↗

Validation for Global Solar Wind Prediction Using Ulysses Comparison: Multiple Coronal and Heliospheric Models Installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

Jian, L. K.↗

Tropospheric Ozone in the NASA GEOS Model: Effects of Satellite Data Assimilation and Improvements in Background NO x Chemistry

Tropospheric ozone is a major atmospheric oxidant, the primary source of the hydroxyl radical, and a greenhouse gas. In the troposphere, it is produced from the oxidation of carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NO x =NO+NO 2 ) or has its origins in the stratosphere. The tropospheric ozone burdens in global atmospheric chemistry models disagree by a factor of 1.5, indicating an incomplete understanding of ozone sources and sinks. Here we examine the tropospheric ozone simulation in NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO’s) GEOS model with the GEOS-Chem chemistry mechanism (version 14.2), using observations from satellites, aircraft, ozonesondes, and surface sites. This modeling framework is used to produce GMAO’s GEOS Composition Forecasts (GEOS-CF), and it has been updated extensively with new emission inventories, improved model physics, satellite data assimilation capability, and an up-to-date chemical mechanism that includes tropospheric halogen chemistry and NOx recycling from particulate nitrate. Earlier versions of the model using GEOS-Chem version 12.0 showed an underestimate in tropospheric ozone in the northern hemisphere. We evaluate the ozone simulation in the updated model, focusing on the effects of assimilating satellite NO 2 data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), constraining stratospheric ozone to satellite data, and updates to the NOx chemistry. We will examine changes in the vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone over the US in support of the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO), and discuss implications for the tropospheric ozone budget.

Viral Shah↗

SCIMON: Scientific Inspiration Machines Optimized for Novelty

We explore and enhance the ability of neu- ral language models to generate novel scien- tific directions grounded in literature. Work on literature-based hypothesis generation has traditionally focused on binary link prediction— severely limiting the expressivity of hypothe- ses. This line of work also does not focus on optimizing novelty. We take a dramatic depar- ture with a novel setting in which models use as input background contexts (e.g., problems, experimental settings, goals), and output natu- ral language ideas grounded in literature. We present SCIMON, a modeling framework that uses retrieval of “inspirations” from past scien- tific papers, and explicitly optimizes for novelty by iteratively comparing to prior papers and up- dating idea suggestions until sufficient novelty is achieved. Comprehensive evaluations reveal that GPT-4 tends to generate ideas with over- all low technical depth and novelty, while our methods partially mitigate this issue. Our work represents a first step toward evaluating and developing language models that generate new ideas derived from the scientific literature.

Ji, Heng↗

Effects of Forcing Differences and Initial Conditions on Inter-Model Agreement in the VolMIP Volc-Pinatubo-Full Experiment

This paper provides initial results from a multi-model ensemble analysis based on the volc-pinatubo-full experiment performed within the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The volc-pinatubo-full experiment is based on an ensemble of volcanic forcing-only climate simulations with the same volcanic aerosol dataset across the participating models (the 1991–1993 Pinatubo period from the CMIP6-GloSSAC dataset). The simulations are conducted within an idealized experimental design where initial states are sampled consistently across models from the CMIP6-piControl simulation providing unperturbed preindustrial background conditions. The multi-model ensemble includes output from an initial set of six participating Earth system models (CanESM5, GISS-E2.1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-E2SL, MPI-ESM1.2-LR and UKESM1). The results show overall good agreement between the different models on the global and hemispheric scales concerning the surface climate responses, thus demonstrating the overall effectiveness of VolMIP's experimental design. However, small yet significant inter-model discrepancies are found in radiative fluxes, especially in the tropics, that preliminary analyses link with minor differences in forcing implementation; model physics, notably aerosol–radiation interactions; the simulation and sampling of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and, possibly, the simulation of climate feedbacks operating in the tropics. We discuss the volc-pinatubo-full protocol and highlight the advantages of volcanic forcing experiments defined within a carefully designed protocol with respect to emerging modelling approaches based on large ensemble transient simulations. We identify how the VolMIP strategy could be improved in future phases of the initiative to ensure a cleaner sampling protocol with greater focus on the evolving state of ENSO in the pre-eruption period.

metadata↗

Probabilistic Inference of Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxy Morphological Parameters Using Simulation-Based Inference

Low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) are diffuse, often dark-matter-dominated systems whose faintness makes their structural parameters difficult to measure reliably in wide-field imaging surveys. Robust parameter inference, including uncertainty quantification, is important for population studies and for comparisons with models of galaxy formation, as future surveys are expected to produce increasingly large samples of diffuse galaxies. In practice, LSBG profile modeling is sensitive to sky- background errors, masking choices, contaminating background sources, and the computational cost of obtaining posterior-level uncertainties for large samples. Motivated by these questions, we develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for estimating posterior distributions of LSBG morphological parameters from simulated galaxy images. Using PyImfit, we generate DES-like single-Sersic profile LSBG images with known position angle, ellipticity, Sersic index, effective surface brightness, and effective radius. We then train a normalizing-flow-based neural posterior estimator using the sbi package to infer these parameters from the simulated images. For isolated simulated galaxies, the SBI posterior recovers the true input parameters, produces posterior predictive residuals consistent with the assumed noise model, and shows good empirical calibration in a DES-motivated test regime. We also compare SBI with PyImfit-based MCMC inference and find broadly comparable posterior constraints, while SBI enables substantially faster posterior sampling after training. Finally, we test robustness to compact background contaminants. A model trained only on isolated galaxies produces undercovered posteriors on contaminated images, whereas training on simulations with variable contaminant positions and fluxes improves calibration across contaminated test sets. These results demonstrate the promise of SBI for scalable, uncertainty-aware LSBG morphology inference, while emphasizing that posterior reliability strongly depends on whether training simulations include relevant observational complications.

Batbayar, Bilguun [U. Chicago (main)]↗

Proposal for a Sample Pilot Response Model

Regulations to establish operational and performance requirements for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are being developed by a consortium of government, industry and academic institutions. Those requirements will apply to the new detect and avoid (DAA) systems and other equipment necessary to integrate UAS with the National Airspace System (NAS) and are determined according to their contribution to the overall safety case for such an integration. In order to perform end-to-end verification and validation of DAA requirements, a committee accepted pilot response model is needed to emulate UAS pilots in closed-loop Monte Carlo fast-time simulations. This briefing focuses on background of the pilot model used in previous Airspace Concept Evaluation System studies, identification of strengths and weaknesses in that model, and proposals on model improvements. The briefing also looks to build consensus around a common architecture and assumptions for modeling the pilot for UAS DAA systems.

Santiago, Confesor↗

Third international challenge to model the medium- to long-range transport of radioxenon to four Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations

In 2015 and 2016, atmospheric transport modeling challenges were conducted in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification, however, with a more limited scope with respect to emission inventories, simulation period and number of relevant samples (i.e., those above the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC)) involved. Therefore, a more comprehensive atmospheric transport modeling challenge was organized in 2019. Stack release data of Xe-133 were provided by the Institut National des Radioéléments/IRE (Belgium) and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories/CNL (Canada) and accounted for in the simulations over a three (mandatory) or six (optional) months period. Best estimate emissions of additional facilities (radiopharmaceutical production and nuclear research facilities, commercial reactors or relevant research reactors) of the Northern Hemisphere were included as well. Model results were compared with observed atmospheric activity concentrations at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations located in Europe and North America with overall considerable influence of IRE and/or CNL emissions for evaluation of the participants’ runs. Participants were prompted to work with controlled and harmonized model set-ups to make runs more comparable, but also to increase diversity. It was found that using the stack emissions of IRE and CNL with daily resolution does not lead to better results than disaggregating annual emissions of these two facilities taken from the literature if an overall score for all stations covering all valid observed samples is considered. A moderate benefit of roughly 10% is visible in statistical scores for samples influenced by IRE and/or CNL to at least 50% and there can be considerable benefit for individual samples. Effects of transport errors, not properly characterized remaining emitters and long IMS sampling times (12–24 h) undoubtedly are in contrast to and reduce the benefit of high-quality IRE and CNL stack data. Complementary best estimates for remaining emitters push the scores up by 18% compared to just considering IRE and CNL emissions alone. Despite the efforts undertaken the full multi-model ensemble built is highly redundant. An ensemble based on a few arbitrary runs is sufficient to model the Xe-133 background at the stations investigated. The effective ensemble size is below five. An optimized ensemble at each station has on average slightly higher skill compared to the full ensemble. However, the improvement (maximum of 20% and minimum of 3% in RMSE) in skill is likely being too small for being exploited for an independent period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Search for dimuon resonance in the 35 to 75 GeV mass range using 140 fb−1 of 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A model-independent search for low-mass resonances decaying into pairs of oppositely charged muons is presented. The analysis uses proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1, recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider between 2015 and 2018. The search targets hypothetical dimuon resonances in the invariant mass range from 35 GeV to 75 GeV. The modelling of this mass region is particularly challenging for conventional analytic background parameterisations. To address this, a Gaussian process regression technique is used to model the background. The dimuon mass spectrum is analysed for potential signals, and no statistically significant excess is observed. Upper limits at the 95% confidence level are set on the fiducial production cross-section of new resonances decaying promptly into muons, ranging from 20 fb to 110 fb, depending on the resonance mass. These results are further interpreted in the context of dark-photon and dark-matter-mediator models, leading to new constraints on their parameter spaces.

Aad, G↗

A novel methodology to integrate outcomes regarding perioperative pain experience into a composite score: Prediction model development and validation

Abstract Background An integrated score that globally assesses perioperative pain experience and rationally weights each component has not yet been developed. Methods A development dataset specific to adult Chinese patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery was obtained from PAIN OUT (1985 qualified patients of 2244). A more recent validation dataset obeying the same conditions was obtained from the Chinese Anaesthesia Shared‐database Platform (1004 qualified patients of 1032). Outcomes were assessed using the International Pain Outcomes Questionnaire (IPO‐Q), which comprises key patient‐level outcomes of perioperative pain management, including pain experience and perceptions of care. Using principal component analysis and regression models, a composite score (CS) was inferred to integrate pain experience. The discrimination of the CS for dissatisfaction and desire for more pain treatment was compared with that of the worst pain score. Results A CS was developed from the 12 items of the IPO‐Q regarding pain experience. The weight for calculating the CS was worst pain 11, least pain 17, time spent in severe pain 11, interference with activity in bed 9, interference with breathing deeply or coughing 10, interference with sleep 9, anxiety 12, helplessness 12, nausea 0, drowsiness 2, itch 5 and dizziness 2. In external validation, the CS indicated superior discrimination to the worst pain in predicting dissatisfaction ( p < 0.001) and desire for more pain treatment ( p < 0.001). Conclusions This study introduced a methodology to integrate outcomes regarding perioperative pain experience into a CS, which was based on the weight of each item. Significance This novel methodology sheds additional light on the riveting issue of carefully integrating several measures into a composite endpoint, which may be useful for quality improvement purposes when addressing the impact of a change in clinical practice.

Jiang, Bailin↗

Lessons Learned from Assimilating Altimeter Data into a Coupled General Circulation Model with the GMAO Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter

Satellite altimetry measurements have provided global, evenly distributed observations of the ocean surface since 1993. However, the difficulties introduced by the presence of model biases and the requirement that data assimilation systems extrapolate the sea surface height (SSH) information to the subsurface in order to estimate the temperature, salinity and currents make it difficult to optimally exploit these measurements. This talk investigates the potential of the altimetry data assimilation once the biases are accounted for with an ad hoc bias estimation scheme. Either steady-state or state-dependent multivariate background-error covariances from an ensemble of model integrations are used to address the problem of extrapolating the information to the sub-surface. The GMAO ocean data assimilation system applied to an ensemble of coupled model instances using the GEOS-5 AGCM coupled to MOM4 is used in the investigation. To model the background error covariances, the system relies on a hybrid ensemble approach in which a small number of dynamically evolved model trajectories is augmented on the one hand with past instances of the state vector along each trajectory and, on the other, with a steady state ensemble of error estimates from a time series of short-term model forecasts. A state-dependent adaptive error-covariance localization and inflation algorithm controls how the SSH information is extrapolated to the sub-surface. A two-step predictor corrector approach is used to assimilate future information. Independent (not-assimilated) temperature and salinity observations from Argo floats are used to validate the assimilation. A two-step projection method in which the system first calculates a SSH increment and then projects this increment vertically onto the temperature, salt and current fields is found to be most effective in reconstructing the sub-surface information. The performance of the system in reconstructing the sub-surface fields is particularly impressive for temperature, but not as satisfactory for salt.

Keppenne, Christian↗

Comments on the quantum field theory of the Coulomb gas formalism

The holomorphic Coulomb gas formalism, as developed by Feigin-Fuchs, Dotsenko-Fateev and Felder, is a set of rules for computing minimal model observables using free field techniques. We attempt to derive and clarify these rules using standard techniques of quantum field theory. We begin with a careful examination of the timelike linear dilaton. Although the background charge of the model breaks the scalar field’s continuous shift symmetry, the exponential of the action remains invariant under a discrete shift because the background charge is imaginary. Gauging this symmetry makes the dilaton compact and introduces winding modes into the spectrum. One of these winding operators corresponds to the anti-holomorphic completion of the BRST current first introduced by Felder, and the full left/right cohomology of this BRST charge isolates the irreducible representations of the Virasoro algebra within the degenerate Fock space of the linear dilaton. The “supertrace” in the BRST complex reproduces the minimal model partition function and exhibits delicate cancellations between states with both momentum and winding. The model at the radius $R=\sqrt{pp^{\prime }}$ has two marginal operators corresponding to the Dotsenko-Fateev “screening charges”. Deforming by them, we obtain a model that might be called a “BRST quotiented compact timelike Liouville theory”. The Hamiltonian of the zero-mode quantum mechanics of this model is not Hermitian, but it is PT -symmetric and exactly solvable. Its eigenfunctions have support on an infinite number of plane waves, suggesting an infinite reduction in the number of independent states in the full quantum field theory. Applying conformal perturbation theory to the exponential interactions reproduces the Coulomb gas calculations of minimal model correlation functions. In contrast to spacelike Liouville, these “resonance correlators” are finite because the zero mode is compact. We comment on subtleties regarding the reflection operator identification, as well as naive violations of truncation in correlators with multiple reflection operators inserted. This work is part of an attempt to understand the relationship between the JT model of two dimen- sional gravity and the worldsheet description of the (2 , p ) minimal string as suggested by Seiberg and Stanford.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Planck intermediate results

In this work, we describe an extension of the most recent version of the Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources (PCCS2), produced using a new multi-band Bayesian Extraction and Estimation Package (BeeP). BeeP assumes that the compact sources present in PCCS2 at 857 GHz have a dust-like spectral energy distribution (SED), which leads to emission at both lower and higher frequencies, and adjusts the parameters of the source and its SED to fit the emission observed in Planck’s three highest frequency channels at 353, 545, and 857 GHz, as well as the IRIS map at 3000 GHz. In order to reduce confusion regarding diffuse cirrus emission, BeeP’s data model includes a description of the background emission surrounding each source, and it adjusts the confidence in the source parameter extraction based on the statistical properties of the spatial distribution of the background emission. BeeP produces the following three new sets of parameters for each source: (a) fits to a modified blackbody (MBB) thermal emission model of the source; (b) SED-independent source flux densities at each frequency considered; and (c) fits to an MBB model of the background in which the source is embedded. BeeP also calculates, for each source, a reliability parameter, which takes into account confusion due to the surrounding cirrus. This parameter can be used to extract sub-samples of high-frequency sources with statistically well-understood properties. We define a high-reliability subset (BeeP/base), containing 26 083 sources (54.1% of the total PCCS2 catalogue), the majority of which have no information on reliability in the PCCS2. We describe the characteristics of this specific high-quality subset of PCCS2 and its validation against other data sets, specifically for: the sub-sample of PCCS2 located in low-cirrus areas; the Planck Catalogue of Galactic Cold Clumps; the Herschel GAMA15-field catalogue; and the temperature- and spectral-index-reconstructed dust maps obtained with Planck’s Generalized Needlet Internal Linear Combination method. The results of the BeeP extension of PCCS2, which are made publicly available via the Planck Legacy Archive, will enable the study of the thermal properties of well-defined samples of compact Galactic and extragalactic dusty sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗