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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Mean Climate and Tropical Rainfall Variability in Aquaplanet Simulations Using the Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere

Abstract Aquaplanet experiments are important tools for understanding and improving physical processes simulated by global models; yet, previous aquaplanet experiments largely differ in their representation of subseasonal tropical rainfall variability. This study presents results from aquaplanet experiments produced with the Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere (MPAS‐A)—a community model specifically designed to study weather and climate in a common framework. The mean climate and tropical rainfall variability simulated by MPAS‐A with varying horizontal resolution were compared against results from a recent suite of aquaplanet experiments. This comparison shows that, regardless of horizontal resolution, MPAS‐A produces the expected mean climate of an aquaplanet framework with zonally symmetric but meridionally varying sea‐surface temperature. MPAS‐A, however, has a stronger signal of tropical rainfall variability driven by convectively coupled equatorial waves. Sensitivity experiments with different cumulus parameterizations, physics packages, and vertical grids consistently show the presence of those waves, especially equatorial Kelvin waves, in phase with lower‐tropospheric convergence. Other models do not capture such rainfall‐kinematics phasing. These results suggest that simulated tropical rainfall variability depends not only on the cumulus parameterization (as suggested by previous studies) but also on the coupling between physics and dynamics of climate and weather prediction models.

Rios‐Berrios, R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling Mesoscale Budget Components to Large-Eddy Simulations for Wind-Energy Applications

To simulate the airflow through a wind farm across a wide range of atmospheric conditions, microscale models (e.g., large-eddy simulation, LES, models) have to be coupled with mesoscale models, because microscale models lack the atmospheric physical processes to represent time-varying local forcing. Here we couple mesoscale model outputs to a LES solver by applying mesoscale momentum- and temperature-budget components from the Weather Research and Forecasting model to the governing equations of the Simulator fOr Wind Farm Applications model. We test whether averaging the budget components affects the LES results with regard to quantities of interest to wind energy. Our study focuses on flat terrain during a quiescent diurnal cycle. The simulation results are compared with observations from a 200-m tall meteorological tower and a wind-profiling radar, by analyzing time series, profiles, rotor-averaged quantities, and spectra. However, while results show that averaging reduces the spatio-temporal variability of the mesoscale momentum-budget components, when coupled with the LES model, the mesoscale bias (in comparison with observations of wind speed and direction, and potential temperature) is not reduced. In contrast, the LES technique can correct for shear and veer. In both cases, however, averaging the budget components shows no significant impact on the mean flow quantities in the microscale and is not necessary when coupling mesocale budget components to the LES model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Conversion of Site-Specific Meteorological Data for use in CAP-88 PC

CAP-88 PC is a commonly used radiological atmospheric dispersion model. This US EPA-approved model is used to demonstrate compliance with atmospheric emission regulations for radionuclides. While the model includes a large library of meteorological data for use across the United States, there are applications when users may wish to use onsite meteorological data as an input to the CAP-88 PC model. Here, in this work, we present a work-around process for preparing and converting onsite data for use in CAP-88 PC. However, the use of local data should provide a more realistic estimate of doses to members of the public in the immediate vicinity of a facility, although the regulatory agency having jurisdiction may not accept the use of local data for compliance. Additionally, the historical meteorological records from 20+ years ago (at a site many kilometers away) might not be representative of current local weather patterns, highlighting another benefit of using local meteorological data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supplemental material for paper "Radiosonde-to-Space (R2S) atmospheric specifications: Bridging observations and models for infrasound propagation"

This document describes the supplemental materials for the paper: TITLE: "Radiosonde-to-Space (R2S) atmospheric specifications: Bridging observations and models for infrasound propagation" DOI: xxxxxxxxxxx JOURNAL: TBD Written by Loring Schaible, September 17, 2025 This folder contains eight subfolders, each for a specific date and UTC time (in format YYYY-MM-DD_HH). All eight of these dates are exemplified and described in the manuscript. Within each folder is six documents. As an example, consider the folder "2022-12-31_00". The six files are comprised of: - Two text files (extension .txt) that describe the atmospheric specifications of Albuquerque, NM. One is the G2S model, the other is the R2S model. "G2S_2022-12-31_00.txt" "R2S_2022-12-31_00.txt" - Two text files (extension .dat) that contain the ground arrivals predicted by infraGA using the parameters described in the manuscript. One each for the two atmospheric specification models above, G2S and R2S. "G2S_2022-12-31_00.arrivals.dat" "R2S_2022-12-31_00.arrivals.dat" - Two image files (extension .png) that illustrate the predicted arrivals contained in the two files above. One image shows all arrivals as either black (G2S) or red (R2S). The other image shows the same but with arrivals common to both models in gray. "2022-12-31_00_Arrivals.png" "2022-12-31_00_DifArrivals.png"

Schaible, Loring Pratt [Sandia National Laboratori↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Radiological Release From Fueled Irradiation Experiments During Manual Handling (Slides)

Irradiation experiments are manually handled at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) by qualified operators using long handled tools. Standard handling evolutions include insertion and removal from the reactor vessel, transfer to/from a storage location or cask in the ATR canal, and handling/reconfigurations at a canal working tray. Such routine handling has the potential to result in mechanical damage to the experiment boundary which is credited to retain fission products. Since damage can occur due to operator error, this is an anticipated occurrence. This work determines the radiological consequences to receptors inside the ATR facility, as well as public receptors. Given the wide variety of fuel types tested at the ATR, a generic approach to the analysis is taken. The radiological inventory is determined to bound a variety of fuel types (e.g., ceramic and molten fuel matrices) and fission powers on the U-235 enrichment spectrum. The source term analysis considers different release fractions to bound different fuel types and burnups. The postulated handling events occur underwater; thus, retention of the released isotopic content is considered within the canal water column. Retention of radionuclides in the water column is determined using a modified approach of United States (US) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.183. Radiological dose to the facility receptor is determined using a compartment release model. Dose to the public receptor is determined using atmospheric dispersion models using site specific atmospheric conditions with the use of the Radiological Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC) program version 7.2.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projecting Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Ozone Pollution Events Under Uncertain Climate Sensitivity

Abstract Climate change is projected to worsen ozone pollution over many populated regions, with larger impacts at higher concentrations. More intense and frequent ozone episodes risk setbacks to human health and environmental policy achievements. However, assessing these changes is complicated by uncertain climate sensitivity, closely related to climate model response, and internal variability in simulations projecting climate's influence on air quality. Here, leveraging a global modeling framework that one‐way couples a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and an atmospheric chemistry model, we investigate the role of climate sensitivity in climate‐induced changes to high ozone pollution episodes in the United States using multiple greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, representations of climate sensitivity, and initial condition members. We bias correct and evaluate historical model simulations, identifying modeled and observed O 3 episodes using extreme value theory, and extend the approach to projections of mid‐ and end‐century climate impacts. Results show that the influence of climate sensitivity can be as significant as that of greenhouse gas emissions scenario absent precursor emissions changes. Climate change is projected to increase the magnitude of the highest annually occurring O 3 concentrations by over 2.3 ppb on average across the U.S. at mid‐century under a high climate sensitivity and moderate emissions scenario, but the increase is limited to less than 0.3 ppb under lower climate sensitivity. Further, we show that areas in the U.S. currently meeting air quality standards risk being pushed into non‐compliance due to a climate‐induced increase in frequency of high ozone days.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Verification Suite of Test Cases for the Barotropic Solver of Ocean Models

Abstract The development of any atmosphere or ocean model warrants a suite of test cases (TCs) to verify its spatial and temporal discretizations, order of accuracy, stability, reproducibility, portability, scalability, etc. In this paper, we present a suite of shallow water TCs designed to verify the barotropic solver of atmosphere and ocean models. These include the non‐dispersive coastal Kelvin wave; the dispersive inertia‐gravity wave; the dispersive planetary and topographic Rossby waves; the barotropic tide; and a non‐linear manufactured solution. These TCs check the implementation of the linear pressure gradient term; the linear constant or variable‐coefficient Coriolis and bathymetry terms; and the non‐linear advection terms. Simulation results are presented for a variety of time‐stepping methods as well as two spatial discretizations: a mimetic finite volume method based on the TRiSK scheme, and a high‐order discontinuous Galerkin spectral element method. The experimental procedure for conducting these numerical experiments is detailed. It underscores several key considerations that vary depending on the chosen spatial discretization method. Finally, convergence studies of every TC are conducted with refinement in both space and time, only in space, and only in time. The convergence slopes match the expected theoretical predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constructing a spatiotemporally coherent long-term PM2.5 concentration dataset over China during 1980–2019 using a machine learning approach

The lack of long-term observations and satellite retrievals of health-damaging fine particulate matter in China has demanded the estimates of historical PM 2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter) concentrations. This study constructs a gridded near-surface PM 2.5 concentration dataset across China covering 1980–2019 using the space-time random forest model with atmospheric visibility observations and other auxiliary data. The modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations are in excellent agreement with ground measurements during 2015–2019, with a coefficient of determination of 0.95 and mean relative error of 12%. Besides the atmospheric visibility which explains 30% of total importance of variables in the model, both emissions and meteorological conditions are also essential factors affecting PM2.5 predictions. From 1980 to 2014, the model-predicted PM2.5 concentrations increased constantly with the maximum growth rate of 5–10 µg/m3/decade over eastern China. Due to the clean air actions, PM 2.5 concentrations have decreased effectively at a rate over 50 µg/m 3 /decade in the North China Plain and 20–50 µg/m 3 /decade over eastern China during 2014–2019. The newly generated dataset of 1-degree gridded PM 2.5 concentrations for the past 40 years across China provides a useful means for investigating interannual and decadal environmental and climate impacts related to aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Islet: interpolation semi-Lagrangian element-based transport

Abstract. Advection of trace species, or tracers, also called tracer transport, in models of the atmosphere and other physical domains is an important and potentially computationally expensive part of a model's dynamical core. Semi-Lagrangian (SL) advection methods are efficient because they permit a time step much larger than the advective stability limit for explicit Eulerian methods without requiring the solution of a globally coupled system of equations as implicit Eulerian methods do. Thus, to reduce the computational expense of tracer transport, dynamical cores often use SL methods to advect tracers. The class of interpolation semi-Lagrangian (ISL) methods contains potentially extremely efficient SL methods. We describe a finite-element ISL transport method that we call the interpolation semi-Lagrangian element-based transport (Islet) method, such as for use with atmosphere models discretized using the spectral element method. The Islet method uses three grids that share an element grid: a dynamics grid supporting, for example, the Gauss–Legendre–Lobatto basis of degree three; a physics parameterizations grid with a configurable number of finite-volume subcells per element; and a tracer grid supporting use of Islet bases with particular basis again configurable. This method provides extremely accurate tracer transport and excellent diagnostic values in a number of verification problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond standard model particles in the atmospheric flux: a long-lived stau example

We discuss fluxes of long-lived supersymmetric (SUSY) particles produced in the atmosphere from ultra-high energy cosmic-ray interactions with air nuclei. We consider long-lived particle production which proceeds first via the on-shell formation of heavier particles in the SUSY spectrum and then their decays. Specifically, we focus on the production of stau pairs from the decays of squarks produced in the initial cosmic ray-air collision under the purview of gauge-mediated symmetry breaking models that have the stau as the next-to-lightest SUSY particle. The calculation of the resulting stau flux schematically mirrors that of prompt atmospheric neutrino production, however, with the energy scale of initial hadronic collision set to EeV energy scales of the incident cosmic rays rather than the PeV energies where the prompt atmospheric neutrino fluxes dominate over neutrino fluxes from pions and kaons, and with the appropriate stau production cross section. We show the effect of accounting for the energy distribution of the staus relative to the squark energy distributions. We discuss the potential for future ultra-high energy detectors similar in scope to IceCube-Gen2 to detect atmospheric staus via tracks going through the detector volume. Current collider constraints on stau pair production within the SUSY framework considered here are more constraining than those from a detector like IceCube-Gen2 over ten years.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gemini Planet Imager Spectroscopy of the Dusty Substellar Companion HD 206893 B

We present new near-infrared Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) spectroscopy of HD 206893 B, a substellar companion orbiting within the debris disk of its F5V star. The J, H, K1, and K2 spectra from GPI demonstrate the extraordinarily red colors of the object, confirming it as the reddest substellar object observed to date. The significant flux increase throughout the infrared presents a challenging atmosphere to model with existing grids. Best-fit values vary from 1200 to 1800 K for effective temperature and from 3.0 to 5.0 for log(g), depending on which individual wavelength band is fit and which model suite is applied. The extreme redness of the companion can be partially reconciled by invoking a high-altitude layer of submicron dust particles, similar to dereddening approaches applied to the peculiar red field L dwarf population. However, reconciling the HD 206893 B spectra with even those of the reddest low-gravity L dwarf spectra still requires the contribution of additional atmospheric dust, potentially due to the debris disk environment in which the companion resides. Orbit fitting from 4 yr of astrometric monitoring is consistent with a ∼30 yr period, an orbital inclination of 147°, and a semimajor axis of 10 au, well within the estimated disk inner radius of ∼50 au. As one of a very few substellar companions imaged interior to a circumstellar disk, the properties of this system offer important dynamical constraints on companion–disk interaction and provide a benchmark for substellar and planetary atmospheric study.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020

The Amazon is the largest continuous tropical forest in the world and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Human-induced disturbances and climate change have impacted the Amazon carbon balance. Here we conduct a comprehensive synthesis of existing state-of-the-art estimates of the contemporary land carbon fluxes in the Amazon using a set of bottom-up methods (i.e., dynamic vegetation models and bookkeeping models) and a top-down inversion (atmospheric inversion model) over the Brazilian Amazon and the whole Biogeographical Amazon domain. Over the whole biogeographical Amazon region bottom-up methodologies suggest a small average carbon sink over 2010-2020, in contrast to a small carbon source simulated by top-down inversion (2010-2018). However, these estimates are not significantly different from one another when accounting for their large individual uncertainties, highlighting remaining knowledge gaps, and the urgent need to reduce such uncertainties. Nevertheless, both methodologies agreed that the Brazilian Amazon has been a net carbon source during recent climate extremes and that the south-eastern Amazon was a net land carbon source over the whole study period (2010-2020). Overall, our results point to increasing human-induced disturbances (deforestation and forest degradation by wildfires) and reduction in the old-growth forest sink during drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing and quantifying uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts on air quality

Climate change can aggravate air pollution, with important public health and environmental consequences. While major sources of uncertainty in climate change projections - greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, model response, and internal variability - have been investigated extensively, their propagation to estimates of air quality impacts has not been systematically assessed. Here, we compare these uncertainties using a coupled modeling framework that includes a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and a global atmospheric chemistry model. Uncertainties in projections of U.S. air quality under 21st century climate change are quantified based on a climate-chemistry ensemble that includes multiple initializations, representations of climate sensitivity, and climate policy scenarios, under constant air pollution emissions. We find that climate-related uncertainties are comparable at mid-century, making it difficult to distinguish the impact of variations in GHG emissions on ozone and particulate matter pollution. While GHG emissions scenario eventually becomes the dominant uncertainty based on the scenarios considered, all sources of uncertainty are significant through the end of the century. The results provide insights into intrinsically different uncertainties in projections of air pollution impacts and the potential for large ensembles to better capture them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Global Ocean Circulation Sensitivity to Changes in Antarctic Ice Discharge

The principal goal of this research is to assess how projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the Antarctic Ice Sheet will impact climate in the next 250 years. In short, the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate, and in particular the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges to the Southern Ocean are poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse through marine-ice-sheet-instability (MISI) on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years, with such a collapse associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project uses a combination of an ice sheet/shelf model and a fully coupled (ocean-atmosphere-seaice) model (CESM 1.2) to explore the sensitive of global climate to future changes in runoff from the Antarctic continent under future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5. Overall, accounting for Antarctic meltwater reduces the projected global mean anthropogenic greenhouse warming by up to 2 deg C. during peak WAIS collapse and by ~1 deg. for most of the simulation. In addition, the increased meltwater contribution raises sub-surface ocean temperatures at the Antarctic ice sheet margin by more than 1ºC, such that the ice shelf basal melt rates increase beyond those currently projected. In contrast, the model predicts a strong cooling of both the surface air and ocean temperatures over the Southern Ocean that results in a massive expansion and thickening of the perennial sea-ice. The slow-down in anthropogenic warming also results in the onset of ice-free conditions in the Arctic being delayed in the model by several decades, and the projected slowdown in the AMOC to reduce.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric Structure Prediction for Infrasound Propagation Modeling Using Deep Learning

Abstract Infrasound is generated by a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources. Infrasonic waves travel through the dynamic atmosphere, which can change on the order of minutes to hours. Infrasound propagation largely depends on the wind and temperature structure of the atmosphere. Numerical weather prediction models are available to provide atmospheric specifications, but uncertainties in these models exist and they are computationally expensive to run. Machine learning has proven useful in predicting tropospheric weather using Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) networks. An LSTM network is utilized to make atmospheric specification predictions up to ∼30 km for three different training and testing scenarios: (a) the model is trained and tested using only radiosonde data from the Albuquerque, NM, USA station, (b) the model is trained on radiosonde stations across the contiguous US, excluding the Albuquerque, NM, USA station, which was reserved for testing, and (c) the model is trained and tested on radiosonde stations across the contiguous US. Long Short‐Term Memory predictions are compared to a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis model and show cases where the LSTM outperforms, performs equally as well, or underperforms in comparison to the state‐of‐the‐art. Regional and temporal trends in model performance across the US are also discussed. Results suggest that the LSTM model is a viable tool for predicting atmospheric specifications for infrasound propagation modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations but subjected to uncertainties associated with model physical parameterizations. In this study, we propose a framework to quantify and reduce model physical parameterization uncertainties associated with surface fluxes and L-A coupling. An ensemble of WRF simulations with different physical schemes is used to simulate surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. The physical parameterizations investigated include cloud microphysics (MP), land surface processes (LSM), planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and cumulus (CU). We perform 120 ensemble simulations using the WRF model and different combinations of six MPs, three LSMs, six PBLs and SLs and three CUs. The measurements from the GoAMAZON field campaign and satellite data are used to evaluate model performance. A Multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is applied to quantify the relative importance of different physics processes on L-A coupling. The Tukey’s test is used to sort schemes that have no significant differences into one group. The suite of physics that result in the best simulations of the corresponding variables are selected based on the Taylor skill score. Results show that the relative importance of processes and their interaction vary with the variables of interest. For example, CU was the most important process in modulating soil moisture, 2 m-humidity, latent heat, and net radiation. LSM showed dominant effects on 2 m-temperature and also has the largest impact on sensible heat and the lifting condensation level. The best physical parameterization ensembles show much narrower ranges of the variables of interest than the priori ensemble. Results of this study show the roles of different physical processes in modulating L-A interactions, quantify model uncertainties from physical processes, and provide insights for improving the model physics parameterizations.

Wang, Chen↗