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At least 541 records · Page 30

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Dark matter direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS cold dark matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way–mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local dark matter speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the dark matter speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the standard halo model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way–mass halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Resolving local ordering and structure in Mn x Ge 1- x Te alloys through thermodynamic ensembles of pair distribution functions

Characterizing local bonding environments in complex materials is essential for understanding and optimizing their properties. Equally as important is the ability to predict local motifs as a function of synthesis conditions, enhancing chemists’ ability to design properties into materials. In this study, we present an approach to leverage statistical mechanics to generate temperature- and energy-informed ensemble averaged pair distribution functions (PDFs). This method, which we have named Thermodynamic Ensemble Averages of PDFs for Ordering and Transformations (TEAPOT), utilizes density functional theory (DFT) to relax supercells while incorporating energetic penalties for local order, enabling accurate and computationally efficient analysis of local structure. We apply this method to the neutron PDF measurements of the pseudobinary MnTe–GeTe (MGT) alloy, demonstrating its capability to resolve complex local distortions and chemical ordering. Our results reveal detailed insights into phase transformations and local distortions driven by Mn substitution. For compositions that globally present as rock salt, our analysis reveals that Ge coordination geometry is heavily impacted by synthesis temperature. We propose that high temperature synthesis conditions promote a lowered Ge polyhedra distortion, promoting high charge carrier mobility due to the alignment of local and global structure. Incorporating statistical mechanics and computation into experimental analysis thus guides synthesis of tailored local structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: LED Lighting, HP-RTU and ASHP-Boiler

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock and ComStock models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on an upgrade package of three end-use savings shapes upgrades - Light Emitting Diode (LED) Lighting, Heat Pump Rooftop Unit (RTU) (HP-RTU), and Air-Source Heat Pump (ASHP) Boiler, which we will refer to collectively as the "Interior Lighting and Heat Pump" package. More details on the individual upgrades can be found on the ComStock Measures Documentation page. An upgrade package applies two or more EUSS upgrades to a single building model simulation. Since ComStock is a bottom-up physics-based model, an upgrade package will go beyond aggregating or summing the individual upgrade results and produce novel results by simulating interactions between the upgrades. For example, pairing an envelope upgrade with an electrification upgrade would likely result in higher savings results than the sum of these upgrades individually, and the size of the heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment may be reduced if the envelope upgrade reduces the loads significantly.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Self-calibrating the look-elsewhere effect: fast evaluation of the statistical significance using peak heights

In experiments where one searches a large parameter space for an anomaly, one often finds many spurious noise-induced peaks in the likelihood. This is known as the look-elsewhere effect, and must be corrected for when performing statistical analysis. Here, this paper introduces a method to calibrate the false alarm probability (FAP), or p-value, for a given dataset by considering the heights of the highest peaks in the likelihood. Specifically, we derive an equation relating the global p-value to the rank and height of local maxima. In the simplest form of self-calibration, the look-elsewhere-corrected $\chi^2$ of a physical peak is approximated by the $\chi^2$ of the peak minus the $\chi^2$ of the highest noise-induced peak, with accuracy improved by considering lower peaks. In contrast to alternative methods, this approach has negligible computational cost as peaks in the likelihood are a byproduct of every peak-search analysis. We apply to examples from astronomy, including planet detection, periodograms, and cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Big Problem for Small Earthquakes: Benchmarking Routine Magnitudes and Conversion Relationships with Coda Envelope-Derived Mw in Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma

Earthquake magnitudes are widely relied upon measures of earthquake size. Although moment magnitude (M w ) has become the established standard for moderate and large earthquakes, difficulty in reliably measuring seismic moments for small (generally M w <4) earthquakes has meant that magnitudes for these events remain plagued by a patchwork of inconsistent measurement scales. Because of this, magnitudes of small earthquakes and statistics derived from them can be biased. Furthermore, because small earthquakes are much more numerous than large ones, many applications, such as seismic hazard modeling, depend critically on analysis of events characterized by magnitudes other than M w . Therefore, to assess this problem, we apply coda envelope analysis to reliably determine moment magnitudes for a case study of small earthquakes from northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Not surprisingly, we find significant differences among M L , m bLg , and M w for M ~2–4 earthquakes examined here. More troublingly, we find that relations designed to convert other magnitudes to M w , which are relied upon for important applications such as seismic hazard analysis, often increase rather than decrease this bias for our dataset. In our case study, we find that converted magnitudes can result in a systematic bias sometimes exceeding 0.5 magnitude units, a difference that typically corresponds to a factor of ~3 in seismicity rate. Moreover, we find a correspondingly large bias in Gutenberg–Richter b-values, controlled primarily by inaccurate magnitude scaling in the conversion relationships. Although this study focuses on a relatively small geographic area, we can expect that similar issues exist with varying severity in other regions. Therefore, magnitudes of small earthquakes and their associated statistics, including seismicity rates and b-values, should be treated with caution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ka-Band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) Active Remote Sensing of Clouds (ARSCL) CloudSat Calibration (KAZRARSCL-CLOUDSAT) (Value-Added Product Report)

The Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar Active Remote Sensing of CLouds CloudSat-aligned (KAZRARSCL-CLOUDSAT) Value-Added Product (VAP) applies satellite-based reflectivity calibrations to KAZRARSCL data sets. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has primarily used radar subsystem calibration monitoring to track cloud radar reflectivity drift over time, since reliable external calibration sources or other absolute references (such as corner reflectors) have historically been unavailable or impracticable. A study by Kollias et al. (2019) examined cloud reflectivity profiles observed with a well-characterized spaceborne downward-pointing millimeter cloud radar, operating as part of NASA’s CloudSat satellite mission (Tanelli et al. 2008). The Kollias team derived monthly statistical reflectivity offsets between CloudSat and the various generations of ARM cloud radars (millimeter wavelength cloud radar [MMCR], W-Band ARM Cloud Radar [WACR[, and Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar [KAZR]) for many, but not all, months at most fixed and mobile ARM sites over the period 2007-2017. These offsets, when available, are applied to the existing KAZRARSCL VAP products using the KAZRARSCL-CLOUDSAT VAP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches

Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.

Weix, Derek↗

Disentangling Pauli Blocking of Atomic Decay from Cooperative Radiation and Atomic Motion in a 2D Fermi Gas

The observation of Pauli blocking of atomic spontaneous decay via direct measurements of the atomic population requires the use of long-lived atomic gases where quantum statistics, atom recoil, and cooperative radiative processes are all relevant. In this work, we develop a theoretical framework capable of simultaneously accounting for all these effects in the many-body quantum degenerate regime. We apply it to atoms in a single 2D pancake or arrays of pancakes featuring an effective Λ level structure (one excited and two degenerate ground states). We identify a parameter window in which a factor of 2 extension in the atomic lifetime clearly attributable to Pauli blocking should be experimentally observable in deeply degenerate gases with ~10 3 atoms. We experimentally observe a suppressed excited-state decay rate, fully consistent with the theory prediction of an enhanced excited-state lifetime, on the 1 S 0 – 3 P 1 transition in 87 Sr atoms.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Differentially Private K -Means Clustering Applied to Meter Data Analysis and Synthesis

The proliferation of smart meters has resulted in a large amount of data being generated. It is increasingly apparent that methods are required for allowing a variety of stakeholders to leverage the data in a manner that preserves the privacy of the consumers. The sector is scrambling to define policies, such as the so called ‘15/15 rule’, to respond to the need. However, the current policies fail to adequately guarantee privacy. Here, in this paper, we address the problem of allowing third parties to apply K-means clustering, obtaining customer labels and centroids for a set of load time series by applying the framework of differential privacy. We leverage the method to design an algorithm that generates differentially private synthetic load data consistent with the labeled data. We test our algorithm’s utility by answering summary statistics such as average daily load profiles for a 2-dimensional synthetic dataset and a real-world power load dataset.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Prospects for silvicultural enhancement of fire resistance in mesic westside forests of the Pacific Northwest

Increasing wildfire activity in mesic, temperate Pacific Northwest forests west of the Cascade Range crest has stimulated interest in understanding whether alternative forest management practices could reduce risk of stand-replacing fire. To explore how management can enhance fire resistance in these forests and assess tradeoffs among resistance enhancement, carbon sequestration and storage, and economic returns, we conducted 40-year simulations of stand development with BioSum, a framework for conducting landscape analysis with the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), utilizing a statistically representative and spatially balanced sample of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots. Simulation outcomes under business-as-usual silviculture were contrasted with fire-aware silviculture, and treatment optimization logic was developed and applied to represent landscape-scale outcomes under business-as-usual and fire-focused management scenarios. Simulation results indicate that fire-aware prescriptions and fire-focused management can meaningfully enhance stand- and landscape-scale fire resistance of westside forests under less than extreme fire weather, but at the cost of lower economic returns and reduced net carbon storage and sequestration over the 40-year analysis window. Shifting from business-as-usual regeneration harvests with short rotations to fire-aware, episodic selection harvest improved fire resistance the most, especially in young privately-owned forests, and with only modest tradeoffs in carbon and economic outcomes. While fire-aware treatments generally reduced net present value from forest operations over business-as-usual, most treatments still generated positive net present value and could be implemented without subsidy. Fire-aware prescriptions that removed and utilized non-merchantable harvest residues instead of burning them, via either pile or broadcast burning, partially mitigated carbon emissions associated with fire-aware treatments, with about the same improvement in fire resistance. Given the currently limited institutional and financial capacity to implement fire resistance enhancing treatments at scale, the insights from this analysis may aid managers seeking to elevate fire resistance to prioritize where and how to manage.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Uniform Beam Simulation Technique for Beam Scans and Machine Learning Studies at Fermilab

Fermilab's neutrino facilities, including NuMI and the upcoming LBNF, use proton beams to produce positively and negatively charged pions and kaons. Detailed simulations are necessary to study particle interactions and beam propagation. To efficiently analyze beam scan effects, we propose a technique to generate multiple simulation samples with high statistics. These samples can be used to develop beamline simulation based machine learning applications. In this technique, we generate a uniformly distributed single simulation data sample. We calculate Gaussian weights for each beam configurations and apply them to post-processing measurements. In this poster, we demonstrate the proposed simulation technique. This technique reduces simulation time and computing resources significantly.

Wickremasinghe, Athula↗

The Spatial Clustering of ROSAT All-Sky Survey Active Galactic Nuclei. V. The Evolution of Broad-line AGN Clustering Properties in the Last 6 Gyr

This is the fifth paper in a series of investigations of the clustering properties of luminous, broad-emission-line active galactic nuclei (AGNs) identified in the ROSAT All-Sky Survey (RASS) and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). In this work we measure the cross-correlation function (CCF) between RASS/SDSS Data Release 14 AGNs with the SDSS CMASS galaxy sample at 0.44 < z < 0.64. We apply halo occupation distribution (HOD) modeling to the CCF along with the autocorrelation function of the CMASS galaxies. We find that X-ray-selected and optically selected AGNs at 0.44 < z < 0.64 reside in statistically identical halos with a typical dark matter halo (DMH) mass of $M$$^{typ,AGN}_{DMH}$ ~ 10 12.7 h –1 M ⊙ . The acceptable HOD parameter space for these two broad-line AGN samples have only statistically marginal differences caused by small deviations of the CCFs in the one-halo-dominated regime on small scales. In contrast to optically selected AGNs, the X-ray AGN sample may contain a larger population of satellites at MDMH ~ 1013h–1M⊙. We compare our measurements in this work with our earlier studies at lower independent redshift ranges, spanning a lookback time of 6 Gyr. The comparison over this wider redshift range of 0.07 < z < 0.64 reveals (i) no significant difference between the typical DMH masses of X-ray-selected and optically selected AGNs, (ii) weak positive clustering dependencies of $M$$^{typ,AGN}_{DMH}$ with L X and M BH , (iii) no significant dependence of $M$$^{typ,AGN}_{DMH}$ on Eddington ratio, and (iv) the same DMH masses host more-massive accreting black holes at high redshift than at low redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

CIGS Technology Advancement via Fundamental Modeling of Defect/Impurity Interactions (Final Technical Report)

The primary goals of the proposed work were to provide modeling tools (and the associated insight which comes along with model development) for design and optimization of CuIn x Ga 1-x Se 2 (CIGS) and CdSeTe (CST) solar cell manufacturing processes and to establish the foundation for comprehensive end-to-end predictive modeling tools to enable optimization of thin film photovoltaic technology for performance, cost, yield, and reliability. The initial focus of efforts within this project was to develop coupled process/optical/device models for CIGS PV technology and to work with Siva Power to apply that TCAD (technology computer-aided design) system to improve the efficiency and reduce manufacturing costs for CIGS solar cells. Our approach to that end was to generate an extensive database of DFT calculations and to use those calculations via statistical thermodynamics methods and Monte Carlo simulation to develop and characterize models for the behavior of native defects as well as intentional and unintentional impurities, including the redistribution of the primary components of CIGS films. Increased effort went toward coupling those models for defect behavior and composition evolution to the performance of multicrystalline CIGS solar cells via prediction of doping level and recombination lifetime as function of manufacturing process. In the second budget period, the project pivoted to developing a similar system for the CdSeTe system, focused especially on understanding the role of Se/Te alloy concentration. Execution of the project resulted in the successful development of TCAD systems for both CIGS and CdSeTe thin film PV within the Synopsys Sentaurus framework by utilizing the Alagator interface. In the first budget period of the project, we developed quantitative models for the major components of CIGS PV and implemented them within a framework that couples process, optical, and device simulation. From the insights we have gained, we identified novel opportunities for enhancing CIGS solar cell performance and have laid the groundwork to further optimize the layer structure, composition profile, and thermal cycles for substantially improved efficiency and lower manufacturing costs. For the CIGS system, process changes to achieve greater than 1% absolute enhancement in efficiency were identified, but testing of those approaches was stymied by lack of a domestic CIGS manufacturing partner after the closure of Siva Power as well as Miasole. For CdSeTe, a fully capable TCAD system only became ready to apply near the end of the project period, so substantial opportunities remain to apply those models to enhance the leading thin film PV technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

AGC-2 Specimen Post Irradiation Data Package Report

This report documents results of the post-irradiation examination material property testing of the creep, control, and piggyback specimens from the irradiation creep capsule Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC)-2 are reported. This is the second of a series of six irradiation test trains planned as part of the AGC experiment to fully characterize the neutron irradiation effects and radiation creep behavior of current nuclear graphite grades. The AGC-2 capsule was irradiated in the Idaho National Laboratory Advanced Test Reactor at a nominal temperature of 600°C and to a peak dose of 5 dpa (displacements per atom). One half of the creep specimens were subjected to mechanical stresses (an applied stress of either 13.8, 17.2, or 20.7 MPa) to induce irradiation creep. All post-irradiation testing and measurement results are reported with the exception of the irradiation mechanical strength testing, which is the last destructive testing stage of the irradiation testing program. Material property tests were conducted on specimens from 15 nuclear graphite grades using a similar loading configuration as the first AGC capsule (AGC-1) to provide easy comparison between the two capsules. However, AGC-2 contained an increased number of specimens (i.e., 487 total specimens irradiated) and replaced specimens of the minor grade 2020 with the newer grade 2114. The data reported include specimen dimensions for both stressed and unstressed specimens to establish the irradiation creep rates, mass and volume data necessary to derive density, elastic constants (Young’s modulus, shear modulus, and Poisson’s ratio) from ultrasonic time of flight velocity measurements, Young’s modulus from the fundamental frequency of vibration, electrical resistivity, and thermal diffusivity and thermal expansion data from 100–500°C. No data outliers were determined after all measurements were completed. A brief statistical analysis was performed on the irradiated data and a limited comparison between pre- and post-irradiation properties is presented. A more complete evaluation of trends in the material property changes, as well as irradiation-induced creep due to irradiation, temperature, and applied load on specimens will be discussed in later AGC-2 post-irradiation examination analysis reports.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Heterotrimetallic Mixed‐Valent Molecular Precursors Containing Periodic Table Neighbors: Assignment of Metal Positions and Oxidation States

Abstract A known trinuclear structure was used to design the heterobimetallic mixed‐valent, mixed‐ligand molecule [Co II (hfac) 3 −Na−Co III (acac) 3 ] ( 1 ). This was used as a template structure to develop heterotrimetallic molecules [Co II (hfac) 3 −Na−Fe III (acac) 3 ] ( 2 ) and [Ni II (hfac) 3 −Na−Co III (acac) 3 ] ( 3 ) via isovalent site‐specific substitution at either of the cobalt positions. Diffraction methods, synchrotron resonant diffraction, and multiple‐wavelength anomalous diffraction were applied beyond simple structural investigation to provide an unambiguous assignment of the positions and oxidation states for the periodic table neighbors in the heterometallic assemblies. Molecules of 2 and 3 are true heterotrimetallic rather than a statistical mixture of two heterobimetallic counterparts. Trinuclear platform 1 exhibits flexibility in accommodating a variety of di‐ and trivalent metals, which can be further utilized in the design of molecular precursors for the NaMM′O 4 functional oxide materials.

Han, Haixiang↗

Direct Numerical Simulations of Turbulent Flow over Misaligned Traveling Waves

Direct numerical simulations of turbulent flow over prescribed traveling waves in a half-channel flow setup subject to a combined streamwise and spanwise pressure gradient are performed at a friction Reynolds number of 180. The simulations undertaken in this study consider both flow-aligned (including opposing and following) and misaligned waves as we attempt to quantify the effect of wave misalignment on turbulence statistics, the pressure drag force, and the wave attenuation rate. For the simulations, we consider three characteristic wave age values corresponding to slow-, intermediate-, and fast-moving waves. Wave misalignment is taken into account by applying a spanwise pressure gradient vertical to the traveling waves, which results in a three-dimensional turbulent flow field above the moving waves. Key flow quantities such as the mean velocity, velocity variances, and momentum fluxes are found to vary with the wave parameters, confirming the findings of previous studies.

direct numerical simulation↗