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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Natural Hazard Risk Assessments at the Global Scale

Since 1990, natural hazards have led to over 1.6 million fatalities globally, and economic losses are estimated at an average of around USD 260–310 billion per year. The scientific and policy communities recognise the need to reduce these risks. As a result, the last decade has seen a rapid development of global models for assessing risk from natural hazards at the global scale. In this paper, we review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, and we specifically examine whether and how they have examined future projections of hazard, exposure, and/or vulnerability. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards, and we identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. For example, there are a number of global risk studies focusing on hydrological, climatological, and meteorological hazards that have included future projections and disaster risk reduction measures (in the case of floods), whereas fewer exist in the peer-reviewed literature for global studies related to geological hazards. On the other hand, studies of earthquake and tsunami risk are now using stochastic modelling approaches to allow for a fully probabilistic assessment of risk, which could benefit the modelling of risk from other hazards. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales. Through this paper, we hope to encourage further dialogue on knowledge sharing between disciplines and communities working on different hazards and risk and at different spatial scales.

Philip J. Ward↗
NASA NTRS1993

Dimensional analysis of acoustically propagated signals

Traditionally, long term measurements of atmospherically propagated sound signals have consisted of time series of multiminute averages. Only recently have continuous measurements with temporal resolution corresponding to turbulent time scales been available. With modern digital data acquisition systems we now have the capability to simultaneously record both acoustical and meteorological parameters with sufficient temporal resolution to allow us to examine in detail relationships between fluctuating sound and the meteorological variables, particularly wind and temperature, which locally determine the acoustic refractive index. The atmospheric acoustic propagation medium can be treated as a nonlinear dynamical system, a kind of signal processor whose innards depend on thermodynamic and turbulent processes in the atmosphere. The atmosphere is an inherently nonlinear dynamical system. In fact one simple model of atmospheric convection, the Lorenz system, may well be the most widely studied of all dynamical systems. In this paper we report some results of our having applied methods used to characterize nonlinear dynamical systems to study the characteristics of acoustical signals propagated through the atmosphere. For example, we investigate whether or not it is possible to parameterize signal fluctuations in terms of fractal dimensions. For time series one such parameter is the limit capacity dimension. Nicolis and Nicolis were among the first to use the kind of methods we have to study the properties of low dimension global attractors.

Hansen, Scott D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties with a Single-Moment Mircophysics Scheme

Single-moment microphysics schemes are utilized in an increasing number of applications and are widely available within numerical modeling packages, often executed in near real-time to aid in the issuance of weather forecasts and advisories. In order to simulate cloud microphysical and precipitation processes, a number of assumptions are made within these schemes. Snow crystals are often assumed to be spherical and of uniform density, and their size distribution intercept may be fixed to simplify calculation of the remaining parameters. Recently, the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) provided aircraft observations of snow crystal size distributions and environmental state variables, sampling widespread snowfall associated with a passing extratropical cyclone on 22 January 2007. Aircraft instrumentation was supplemented by comparable surface estimations and sampling by two radars: the C-band, dual-polarimetric radar in King City, Ontario and the NASA CloudSat 94 GHz Cloud Profiling Radar. As radar systems respond to both hydrometeor mass and size distribution, they provide value when assessing the accuracy of cloud characteristics as simulated by a forecast model. However, simulation of the 94 GHz radar signal requires special attention, as radar backscatter is sensitive to the assumed crystal shape. Observations obtained during the 22 January 2007 event are used to validate assumptions of density and size distribution within the NASA Goddard six-class single-moment microphysics scheme. Two high resolution forecasts are performed on a 9-3-1 km grid, with C3VP-based alternative parameterizations incorporated and examined for improvement. In order to apply the CloudSat 94 GHz radar to model validation, the single scattering characteristics of various crystal types are used and demonstrate that the assumption of Mie spheres is insufficient for representing CloudSat reflectivity derived from winter precipitation. Furthermore, snow density and size distribution characteristics are allowed to vary with height, based upon direct aircraft estimates obtained from C3VP data. These combinations improve the representation of modeled clouds versus their radar-observed counterparts, based on profiles and vertical distributions of reflectivity. These meteorological events are commonplace within the mid-latitude cold season and present a challenge to operational forecasters. This study focuses on one event, likely representative of others during the winter season, and aims to improve the representation of snow for use in future operational forecasts.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS2021

First Measurements of Ambient PM2.5 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo and Brazzaville, Republic of Congo Using Field-calibrated Low-cost Sensors

Estimates of air pollution mortality in sub-Saharan Africa are limited by a lack of surface observations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Despite being large metropolises, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), population 14.3 million, and Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo (ROC), population 2.4 million, have no reference air pollution monitors at the time of writing. Recently, a few reference monitors have been deployed in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Kampala, Uganda. A low-cost PurpleAir PM2.5 monitor was collocated next to the Kampala US Embassy BAM-1020 (Met One Beta Attenuation Monitor) starting in August 2019. Raw PurpleAir data are strongly correlated with the BAM (r(exp 2) = 0.88), but have a mean absolute error of approximately 14 μg/cu.m. Two calibration models, multiple linear regression and a random forest approach, decrease mean absolute error (MAE) from 14.3 μg/cu.m to 3.4 µg/cu.m or less and improve the the r(exp 2) from 0.88 to 0.96. Given )the similarity in climate and emissions in Kampala, we apply the collocated field correction factors to four PurpleAir sensors in Kinshasa, DRC and one in neighboring Brazzaville, ROC deployed beginning April 2018. Annual average PM2.5 for 2019 in Kinshasa is estimated at 43.5 µg/cu.m, more than 4 times higher than WHO Interim Target 1 of 10 µg/cu.m. Surface PM2.5 and aerosol optical depth were each about 40% lower during the 2020 COVID19 lockdown period compared to the same time period in 2019, which cannot be explained by changes in meteorology or wildfire emissions alone. Our results highlight the need for clean air solutions implementation in the Congo.

Celeste McFarlane↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Subhourly Inverter Clipping Loss From Satellite-Derived Irradiance Data

Photovoltaic system production simulations are conventionally run using hourly weather datasets. Hourly simulations are sufficiently accurate to predict the majority of long-term system behavior but cannot resolve high-frequency effects like inverter clipping caused by short-duration irradiance variability. Direct modeling of this subhourly clipping error is only possible for the few locations with high-resolution irradiance datasets. This paper describes a method of predicting the magnitude of this error using a machine learning regressor ensemble model, comprised of a random forest and an XGBoost model, and 30-minute satellite irradiance data. The method predicts a correction for each 30-minute interval with the potential to roll up into 60-minute corrections to match an hourly energy model. The model is trained and validated at locations where the error can be directly simulated from 1-minute ground data. The validation shows low bias at most ground station locations. The model is also applied to gridded satellite irradiance to produce a heatmap of the estimated clipping error across the United States. Finally, the relative importance of each predictor satellite variable is retrieved from the model and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Cloud-Base Turbulence on CCN Activation: Single-Size CCN

Abstract This paper examines the impact of cloud-base turbulence on activation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Following our previous studies, we contrast activation within a nonturbulent adiabatic parcel and an adiabatic parcel filled with turbulence. The latter is simulated by applying a forced implicit large-eddy simulation within a triply periodic computational domain of 64 3 m 3 . We consider two monodisperse CCN. Small CCN have a dry radius of 0.01 μ m and a corresponding activation (critical) radius and critical supersaturation of 0.6 μ m and 1.3%, respectively. Large CCN have a dry radius of 0.2 μ m and feature activation radius of 5.4 μ m and critical supersaturation 0.15%. CCN are assumed in 200-cm −3 concentration in all cases. Mean cloud-base updraft velocities of 0.33, 1, and 3 m s −1 are considered. In the nonturbulent parcel, all CCN are activated and lead to a monodisperse droplet size distribution above the cloud base, with practically the same droplet size in all simulations. In contrast, turbulence can lead to activation of only a fraction of all CCN with a nonzero spectral width above the cloud base, of the order of 1 μ m, especially in the case of small CCN and weak mean cloud-base ascent. We compare our results to studies of the turbulent single-size CCN activation in the Pi chamber. Sensitivity simulations that apply a smaller turbulence intensity, smaller computational domain, and modified initial conditions document the impact of specific modeling assumptions. The simulations call for a more realistic high-resolution modeling of turbulent cloud-base activation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Conserving Land–Atmosphere Synthesis Suite (CLASS)

Accurate estimates of terrestrial water and energy cycle components are needed to better understand climate processes and improve models’ ability to simulate future change. Various observational estimates are available for the individual budget terms; however, these typically show inconsistencies when combined in a budget. In this work, a Conserving Land–Atmosphere Synthesis Suite (CLASS) of estimates of simultaneously balanced surface water and energy budget components is developed. Individual CLASS variable datasets, where possible, 1) combine a range of existing variable product estimates, and hence overcome the limitations of estimates from a single source; 2) are observationally constrained with in situ measurements; 3) have uncertainty estimates that are consistent with their agreement with in situ observations; and 4) are consistent with each other by being able to solve the water and energy budgets simultaneously. First, available datasets of a budget variable are merged by implementing a weighting method that accounts both for the ability of datasets to match in situ measurements and the error covariance between datasets. Then, the budget terms are adjusted by applying an objective variational data assimilation technique (DAT) that enforces the simultaneous closure of the surface water and energy budgets linked through the equivalence of evapotranspiration and latent heat. Comparing component estimates before and after applying the DAT against in situ measurements of energy fluxes and streamflow showed that modified estimates agree better with in situ observations across various metrics, but also revealed some inconsistencies between water budget terms in June over the higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

WWLLN Energetic Lightning Events Are Different From Optical Superbolts

The most powerful optical emissions from lightning have been described as “superbolts” since the 1970s. Holzworth et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd030975) recently applied the superbolt label to the most energetic Radio Frequency emissions recorded by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). We compare the WWLLN energies to optical measurements by the photodiode detector on the Fast On-orbit Recording of Transient Events satellite and the Geostationary Lightning Mappers on NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites to assess whether these energetic WWLLN events coincide with optical superbolts. We find no overlap between optical and WWLLN superbolts. Moreover, extreme WWLLN events occur in a contrasting meteorological context to optical superbolts. Despite similarities in their overall global patterns of occurrence, WWLLN superbolts correspond to a different phenomenon.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Physically based correction of systematic errors of Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers

Accurate measurements of direct normal, diffuse horizontal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI, DHI and GHI) are needed for meteorological studies and are essential for the solar resource assessment at potential solar power plant sites. Often, these potential sites are remote and hence require robust sensors that require minimal maintenance that are not affected strongly by soiling. Therefore, Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers (RSI) are widely used for resource assessment. To achieve the required accuracy, corrections for the raw values of RSIs depending on systematic temperature, incidence angle and spectral errors must be used, and a thorough calibration of the sensor head must be applied. The existing correction functions are derived from comparisons of RSIs to thermopile radiometers at selected sites and therefore empirical. Their accuracy is considered to be site dependent. In this work a new correction and calibration method is presented that removes the systematic errors using a physical approach. It is based on information of the sensor properties as well as measurements of its directional response, and incorporates the atmospheric conditions at the measurement site. In this case, no empiric relations obtained from a specific site are required. The method requires estimates of the current DHI and GHI spectra during each measurement of the RSI. Based on these spectra, a spectral correction, which includes a spectrum dependent temperature correction, can be made without employing empirical relationships. The new physical calibration and correction method is tested at three sites and reaches similar results compared to the empirical functions. This is already achieved with rudimentary estimations of the GHI and DHI spectra and we expect that these estimations can be improved in the future. The results indicate that the physical approach reduces the problematic location dependence of the current calibration and correction methods. The physical correction and calibration method show promise for a further improvement of the RSI accuracy.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2016

Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

Law (Jurisprudence)↗
NASA NTRS1998

Microwave Brightness Temperatures of Tilted Convective Systems

Aircraft and ground-based radar data from the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled-Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) show that convective systems are not always vertical. Instead, many are tilted from vertical. Satellite passive microwave radiometers observe the atmosphere at a viewing angle. For example, the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) on the TRMM satellite have an incident angle of about 50deg. Thus, the brightness temperature measured from one direction of tilt may be different than that viewed from the opposite direction due to the different optical depth. This paper presents the investigation of passive microwave brightness temperatures of tilted convective systems. To account for the effect of tilt, a 3-D backward Monte Carlo radiative transfer model has been applied to a simple tilted cloud model and a dynamically evolving cloud model to derive the brightness temperature. The radiative transfer results indicate that brightness temperature varies when the viewing angle changes because of the different optical depth. The tilt increases the displacements between high 19 GHz brightness temperature (Tb(sub 19)) due to liquid emission from lower level of cloud and the low 85 GHz brightness temperature (Tb(sub 85)) due to ice scattering from upper level of cloud. As the resolution degrades, the difference of brightness temperature due to the change of viewing angle decreases dramatically. The dislocation between Tb(sub 19) and Tb(sub 85), however, remains prominent.

Hong, Ye↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large eddy simulation of atmospheric boundary layer flow over complex terrain in comparison with RANS simulation and on-site measurements under neutral stability condition

Large eddy simulation (LES) of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flow over complex terrain is presented with a validation using meteorological tower (met-tower) data through an improved neutral stability sampling approach. The proposed stability sampling procedure includes a condition based on the most-likely occurrence time-periods of the neutral ABL and reduces the variabilities of the conditional wind statistics calculated at the met-towers in comparison to our previous work. The ABL flow simulations are carried out over a potential wind site with a prominent hill based using the OpenFOAM-based simulator for on/off-shore wind farm applications by applying the Lagrangian-averaged scale-invariant dynamic sub-grid scale turbulence model. A low-dissipative scale-selective discretization scheme for the non-linear convection term in the LES governing equation is adopted implicitly to ensure both the second-order accuracy and bounded solution. The LES inflow is generated through a precursor method with a “tiling” approach based on the flow driving parameters obtained from a corresponding Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulation. Overall, the averaged wind velocity profiles predicted by the LES approach at all met-tower locations show a similar tendency as the RANS results, which are also in reasonable agreement with the met-tower data. An obvious difference in wind speed standard deviation profiles is seen between LES and RANS, especially at regions downstream of the hill edge, where the LES shows under-predicted results at the highest measurement levels in comparison to the tower data. The computational costs of the LES are found to be about 20 times higher than the RANS simulations.

Energy & Fuels↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA’s Mid-Atlantic Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk Demonstration: Translating Compounding Hazards to Societal Risk

Remote sensing provides a unique perspective on our dynamic planet, tracking changes and revealing the course of complex interactions. Long term monitoring and targeted observation combine with modeling and mapping to provide increased awareness of hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Disasters often follow hazards and the goal of NASA’s Disasters Program is to look at the earth as a highly coupled system to reduce risk and enable resilience. Remote sensing and geospatial science are used as tools to help answer critical questions that inform decisions. Data is not the same as information, nor does understanding of processes necessarily translate into decision support for disaster preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, NASA is engaging the scientific and decision-support communities to apply remote sensing, modeling, and related applications in Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk (CAIR). In 2017, NASA’s Applied Sciences Disasters Program hosted a regional workshop to explore these issues with particular focus on coastal Virginia and North Carolina. The workshop brought together partners in academia, emergency management, and scientists from NASA and partnering federal agencies to explore capabilities among the team that could improve understanding of the physical processes related to these hazards, their potential impact to changing communities, and to identify methodologies for supporting emergency response and risk mitigation. The resulting initiative, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project, demonstrates the ability to integrate satellite derived earth observations and physical models into actionable, trusted knowledge. Severe storms and associated storm surge, sea level rise, and land subsidence coupled with increasing populations and densely populated, aging critical infrastructure often leave coastal regions and their communities extremely vulnerable. The integration of observations and models allow for a comprehensive understanding of the compounding risk experienced in coastal regions and enables individuals in all positions make risk-informed decisions. This initiative uses a representative storm surge case as a baseline to produce flood inundation maps. These maps predict building level impacts at current day and for sea level rise (SLR) and subsidence scenarios of the future in order to inform critical decisions at both the tactical and strategic levels. To accomplish this analysis, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project brings together Federal research activities with academia to examine coastal hazards in multiple ways: 1) reanalysis of impacts from 2011 Hurricane Irene, using numerical weather modeling in combination with coastal surge and hydrodynamic, urban inundation modeling to evaluate combined impact scenarios considering SLR and subsidence, 2) remote sensing of flood extent from available optical imagery, 3) adding value to remotely sensed flood maps through depth predictions, and 4) examining coastal subsidence as measured through time-series analysis of synthetic aperture radar observations. Efforts and results are published via ArcGIS story maps to communicate neighborhoods and infrastructure most vulnerable to changing conditions. Story map features enable time-aware flood mapping using hydrodynamic models, photographic comparison of flooding following Hurricane Irene, as well as visualization of heightened risk in the future due to SLR and land subsidence.

Rogers, Laura↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Climate Simulations: Methodological Development and Results from MPAS-CAM over the U.S.

In this study, a process-oriented approach is developed to evaluate warm-season mesoscale convective system (MCS) precipitation and their favorable large-scale meteorological patterns (FLSMPs) over the U.S. This approach features a novel observation-driven MCS-tracking algorithm using infrared brightness temperature and precipitation feature at 12, 25 and 50 km resolution and metrics to evaluate the model large-scale environment favorable for MCS initiation. The tracking algorithm successfully reproduces the observed MCS statistics from a reference 4-km radar MCS database. To demonstrate the utility of the new methodologies in evaluating MCS in climate simulations with mesoscale resolution, the process-oriented approach is applied to two climate simulations produced by the Variable-Resolution Model for Prediction Across Scales coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model physics, with refined horizontal grid spacing at 50 km and 25 km over North America. With the tracking algorithm applied to simulations and observations at equivalent resolutions, the simulated number of MCS and associated precipitation amount, frequency and intensity are found to be consistently underestimated in the Central U.S., particularly from May to August. The simulated MCS precipitation shows little diurnal variation and lasts too long, while MCS precipitation area is too large and intensity is too weak. The model is able to simulate four types of observed FLSMP associated with frontal systems and low-level jets (LLJ) in spring, but the frequencies are underestimated because of low-level dry bias and weaker LLJ. Precipitation simulated under different FLSMPs peak during daytime, in contrast to the observed nocturnal peak. Implications of these findings for future model development and diagnostics are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of methane fluxes measured by eddy-covariance require gap-filling to estimate annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for methane, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. In this study, we address the need for standardization by synthesizing results of gap-filling methods applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions including all major wetlands classes and two rice paddies. We introduce new procedures for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with robust uncertainty estimates. We tested a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms - penalized linear regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and boosted decision trees - and four predictor sets, including temporal, meteorological, ecosystem carbon and energy flux, and soil predictors. We find that the conventional method can achieve similar median performance to the machine learning models but is worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. Finally, we gap-fill and provide summary evaluation metrics for all 81 sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 community dataset and publicly release the python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1978

Preliminary results of the US-USSR meteorological rocketsonde intercomparison held at Wallops Island, VA - August 1977

The reported intercomparison tests were conducted in connection with the objective to make U.S. and USSR rocketsonde temperature data, obtained in studies of the stratosphere and lower mesosphere, compatible with each other. The tests were successful. In general, temperature and wind profiles from the M100B and Datasonde instruments exhibited many similarities up to the vicinity of the stratopause. Mean temperature differences for the day and night pairs are less than 5 C up to 50 km. The differences progressively increase to about 14-15 C at 70 km, with the M100B temperatures colder than the Datasonde data. The reasonably close similarity between the day and night temperature differences suggests that consistent radiation corrections are being applied to both systems. The agreement of the wind measurements below 58 km is a significant improvement compared to the 1973 comparisons when agreement only extended up to 45 km.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Examining Dense Data Usage near the Regions with Severe Storms in All-Sky Microwave Radiance Data Assimilation and Impacts on GEOS Hurricane Analyses

Many numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers assimilate radiances affected by clouds and precipitation from microwave sensors, with the expectation that these data can provide critical constraints on meteorological parameters in dynamically sensitive regions to make significant impacts on forecast accuracy for precipitation. The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center assimilates all-sky microwave radiance data from various microwave sensors such as all-sky GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiance in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS), which includes the GEOS atmospheric model, the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) atmospheric analysis system, and the Goddard Aerosol Assimilation System (GAAS). So far, most of NWP centers apply same large data thinning distances, that are used in clear-sky radiance data to avoid correlated observation errors, to all-sky microwave radiance data. For example, NASA GMAO is applying 145 km thinning distances for most of satellite radiance data including microwave radiance data in which all-sky approach is implemented. Even with these coarse observation data usage in all-sky assimilation approach, noticeable positive impacts from all-sky microwave data on hurricane track forecasts were identified in GEOS-5 system. The motivation of this study is based on the dynamic thinning distance method developed in our all-sky framework to use of denser data in cloudy and precipitating regions due to relatively small spatial correlations of observation errors. To investigate the benefits of all-sky microwave radiance on hurricane forecasts, several hurricane cases selected between 2016-2017 are examined. The dynamic thinning distance method is utilized in our all-sky approach to understand the sources and mechanisms to explain the benefits of all-sky microwave radiance data from various microwave radiance sensors like Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU-A), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and GMI on GEOS-5 analyses and forecasts of various hurricanes.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flexible nonstationary spatiotemporal modeling of high-frequency monitoring data

Many physical datasets are generated by collections of instruments that make measurements at regular time intervals. For such regular monitoring data, we extend the framework of half-spectral covariance functions to the case of nonstationarity in space and time and demonstrate that this method provides a natural and tractable way to incorporate complex behaviors into a covariance model. Further, we use this method with fully time-domain computations to obtain bona fide maximum likelihood estimators—as opposed to using Whittle-type likelihood approximations, for example—that can still be computed conveniently. Additionally, we apply this method to very high-frequency Doppler LIDAR vertical wind velocity measurements, demonstrating that the model can expressively capture the extreme nonstationarity of dynamics above and below the atmospheric boundary layer and, more importantly, the interaction of the process dynamics across it.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗