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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Power System Flexibility Requirements and Supply

As penetrations of variable renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to increase across the United States, greater uncertainty and variability in the net load often lead to a concern about how power systems may adapt. Managing the system net load (i.e., load minus contribution from variable generation technologies) may become more challenging with increasing variable generation, as the magnitude and frequency of net ramps increase. However, there is inherent flexibility in power systems through the conventional generator fleet (under least-cost unit commitment and economic dispatch), less-conventional generation sources (e.g., storage, demand response, concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage), and imports and exports with neighbors. In this analysis, we create an open-source tool to analyze the flexibility of the results of a specific commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch tool (PLEXOS), but the code can be applied generically as well. The tool assesses the flexibility requirements (or demand) of a system through a net load analysis. The constraints and limitations of each generator are then considered to determine the availability (or supply) of flexibility. Then, the supply and demand of flexibility are compared to gain a more complete picture of potential flexibility concerns. We apply this open-source tool to high-penetration PV scenarios constructed for three focus regions in the western United States defined using the Resource Planning Model (RPM) capacity expansion modeling tool: RPM-OR, RPM-CO, and RPM-AZ. Generally, we find few flexibility concerns, as the western United States represents a large and interconnected power system with significant inherent flexibility. In addition, the PV scenarios we analyzed are overbuilt on capacity, leaving plenty of ramping ability on the system. We do find that for each focus region, the impact of imports on meeting ramping needs is essential. This means the PV integration in each focus region impacts the entire rest of the system. Each system has different dominant sources of flexibility. The conventional generator fleet (especially coal and gas combined-cycle technologies) as well as less-conventional sources such as storage are all shown to be important sources of flexibility. The scenarios evaluated here were designed to study the planning and operations impact of high solar penetration in each of three focus regions. However, none of the three focus regions likely will deploy PV in isolation, meaning the ability of imports and exports to provide flexibility may be considerably different in scenarios with strong PV deployment in every region. Overall, we intend that the framework we present here will be useful in future analysis of other system evolutions to identify whether and how flexibility may constrain the successful deployment of variable generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid Energy Systems: Opportunities for Coordinated Research

This chapter presents a baseline assessment of DOE’s current portfolio related to hybrid systems that produce electricity as their only output (Track 1), within the context of the key challenges facing these systems. Of particular importance is that this chapter is focused on understanding what makes a hybrid different from two standalone technologies, both in terms of the research being performed and the challenges that ongoing and planned research will seek to overcome. The purpose of summarizing and describing current research areas is to identify opportunities DOE could consider supporting in the near term. DOE encompasses several offices, each of which has unique objectives and is financially constrained. Additionally, the emergence of low-cost hybrid resources presents an array of new opportunities for the electricity sector, including better managing and allocating risk, improving operating performance, reducing system costs, and enhancing reliability and resilience. Realizing these opportunities will require overcoming barriers to the deployment of hybrids through targeted R&D which multiple DOE offices can invest in and benefit from.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2012

Customizing NASA's Earth Science Research Products for addressing MENA Water Challenges

As projected by IPCC 2007 report, by the end of this century the Middle East North Mrica (MENA) region is projected to experience an increase of 3 C to 5 C rise in mean temperatures and a 20% decline in precipitation. This poses a serious problem for this geographic zone especially when majority of the hydrological consumption is for the agriculture sector and the remaining amount is for domestic consumption. In late 2011, the World Bank, USAID and NASA have joined hands to establishing integrated, modem, up to date NASA developed capabilities for various countries in the MENA region for addressing water resource issues and adapting to climate change impacts for improved decision making for societal benefits. The main focus of this undertaking is to address the most pressing societal issues which can be modeled and solved by utilizing NASA Earth Science remote sensing data products and hydrological models. The remote sensing data from space is one of the best ways to study such complex issues and further feed into the decision support systems. NASA's fleet of Earth Observing satellites offer a great vantage point from space to look at the globe and provide vital signs necessary to maintain healthy and sustainable ecosystem. NASA has over fifteen satellites and thirty instruments operating on these space borne platforms and generating over 2000 different science products on a daily basis. Some of these products are soil moisture, global precipitation, aerosols, cloud cover, normalized difference vegetation index, land cover/use, ocean altimetry, ocean salinity, sea surface winds, sea surface temperature, ozone and atmospheric gasses, ice and snow measurements, and many more. All of the data products, models and research results are distributed via the Internet freely through out the world. This project will utilize several NASA models such as global Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) to generate hydrological states and fluxes in near real time. These LDAS products will then be further compared with other NASA satellite observations (MODIS, VIIRS, TRMM, etc.) and other discrete models to compare and optimize evapotranspiration, soil moisture and crop irrigation, drought assessment and water balance. The floods being a critical disaster in many of the MENA countries, NASA's global flood mapping and modeling framework (CREST) will be customized for country specific needs and delivered to the remote sensing organizations for their future use. Training is an important component under this activity and adequate level of training will be offered to build basic capacity to work with NASA provided data products, models for their future use. This paper provides a comprehensive introduction to NASA's Earth Science mission for understanding the behavior of our home Planet, projecting its health for future generations and applying research results solving societal issues.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2011

System Oriented Runway Management: A Research Update

The runway configuration used by an airport has significant implications with respect to its capacity and ability to effectively manage surface and airborne traffic. Aircraft operators rely on runway configuration information because it can significantly affect an airline's operations and planning of their resources. Current practices in runway management are limited by a relatively short time horizon for reliable weather information and little assistance from automation. Wind velocity is the primary consideration when selecting a runway configuration; however when winds are below a defined threshold, discretion may be used to determine the configuration. Other considerations relevant to runway configuration selection include airport operator constraints, weather conditions (other than winds) traffic demand, user preferences, surface congestion, and navigational system outages. The future offers an increasingly complex landscape for the runway management process. Concepts and technologies that hold the potential for capacity and efficiency increases for both operations on the airport surface and in terminal and enroute airspace are currently under investigation. Complementary advances in runway management are required if capacity and efficiency increases in those areas are to be realized. The System Oriented Runway Management (SORM) concept has been developed to address this critical part of the traffic flow process. The SORM concept was developed to address all aspects of runway management for airports of varying sizes and to accommodate a myriad of traffic mixes. SORM, to date, addresses the single airport environment; however, the longer term vision is to incorporate capabilities for multiple airport (Metroplex) operations as well as to accommodate advances in capabilities resulting from ongoing research. This paper provides an update of research supporting the SORM concept including the following: a concept of overview, results of a TRCM simulation, single airport and Metroplex modeling effort and a benefits assessment.

Lohr, Gary W.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Binary Power Plant CO2 Life Cycle Emissions Including Isobutane Fugitive Emission

Geothermal energy production has one of the lowest life cycle CO2 emission factors (~ 15 g-CO2/kWh) for plants producing electricity (Hondo, 2005). This life cycle factor includes indirect emissions from plant construction as well as ongoing operations such as additional well drilling and equipment replacement. Not included in this calculation are direct emissions from geothermal power production. Geothermal flash plants emit CO2 at rates related to the reservoir concentration. Binary plants report “near zero” emissions of high global warming potential gases because of their closed loop system design. Binary plants use working fluids to drive the turbine generators and leakage of these working fluids have not yet been quantified. To assess the working fluid emissions from geothermal power production using an Organic Rankine Cycle, reported isobutane emissions were accessed for 3 California binary plants from the Great Basin Unified and Imperial County Air Pollution Control Districts as well as the California Air Resource Board. Each binary plant used in this study has been operating for more than 25 years. From the data, two types of isobutane emissions were accounted for over a 15 month period: ‘normal’ equipment leakage and equipment breakdown emissions. This preliminary analysis of working fluid emissions from these plants suggest that if a binary plant has equipment failures, the majority of the isobutane releases can be due to these events. The results indicate that a well maintained binary plant releases approximately 0.13 g-Isobutane/kWh where as a plant with equipment failures releases approximately 6 g-Isobutane/kWh. Assuming a greenhouse warming potential of 3 for isobutane, these emission values become 0.4 and 18 g-CO2e/kWh (where CO2e is the CO2 equivalent effect). The direct operation isobutane leakage for a well maintained binary plant does not significant increase the life cycle CO2 emission factor whereas a plant with significant equipment issues can effectively double the life cycle CO2 emissions. This limited data set suggests that when direct CO2e fugitive emission are add to the indirect CO2 emissions, the total CO2 emissions from binary power plants are equivalent or less than nuclear, as well as other renewables power production such as wind and solar.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technology Strategy Assessment: Findings from Storage Innovations 2030 Thermal Energy Storage

The concept of thermal energy storage (TES) can be traced back to early 19th century, with the invention of the ice box to prevent butter from melting. Modern TES development began with building heating and cooling and concentrated solar thermal technologies for power generation in the early 1900s and late 1970s, respectively. TES systems provide many advantages compared with other long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies, which include low costs, long operational lives, high energy density, synchronous power generation capability with inertia that inherently stabilizes the grid, and the ability to output both heat and electricity. TES Use Cases TES technologies can couple with most renewable energy systems, including wind, photovoltaic, and concentrated solar thermal energy, and can be used for heat-to-heat, heat-to-electricity, electricity-to-heat, and electricity-to-electricity (bidirectional electricity) applications. The three types of TES that have heat as an input or output are grouped together for the purposes of this report. Retrofitting retired thermal power plants can be a potential cost-effective option for TES with electricity output because they both use a similar thermal-to-electricity type of conversion. Additionally, TES can directly serve heat demand for buildings and industrial processes, displacing fossil fuels to achieve broad decarbonization. Bidirectional Electricity Figure 1 shows a bidirectional electricity TES (ETES) architecture that is emerging as a prime technology for LDES at a grid scale. The ETES technology can utilize existing TES technology infrastructures, has no geological limitations (such as mountains and water for pumped storage hydro, underground natural caverns for compressed-air energy storage, etc.), and is capable of deployment anywhere in the United States and the world for broad uses. Particularly, ETES technology can be placed at retired fossil-fueled thermal power plants to reuse decommissioned assets, protect job security in associated communities, and provide resilient and high-inertia (i.e., spinning) power to the grid. Heat Input and Output There also are many ways to integrate TES within heat-to-electricity, heat-to-heat, and electricity-to-heat applications, such as those used in concentrating solar power (CSP), buildings, district heating, and industry process heat applications. These categories can be further classified for low- and high-temperature applications. High-temperature thermal energy storage (HTTES) heat-to-electricity TES applications are currently associated with CSP deployments for power generation. TES with CSP has been deployed in the Southwestern United States with rich solar resources and has proved its value to the electric grid. Electricity-to-heat and heat-to-heat HTTES applications present great potential for decarbonizing energy-intensive industrial process heat applications [8, 9], such as iron ore processing, iron smelting, cement production, glass manufacturing, mineral processing, and chemical production. Some industrial processes require process heat at temperatures > 1,400°C, so HTTES can be utilized to reduce fuel consumption in those processes through fuel, oxidizer, and process material pre-heating. Thermal energy storage for augmenting existing industrial process heat applications makes a much more attractive economic case because the energy penalty due to thermal-to-electric conversion is eliminated. Co-located applications of power production and heat also can add to the value stacking of integrating utility-scale TES; however, these scenarios are very case specific and not practically possible in many cases. These constraints are primarily attributed to the existing infrastructure being designed, developed, and constructed for many decades around the most economically feasible technologies, such as electricity and a selection of fossil fuels for heat input. Low-temperature TES can be utilized for building and district heating and cooling, as well as some process heat applications in electricity-to-heat and heat-to-heat configurations. Lower temperature TES (LTTES) can be added to heat pump equipment (electric input), either directly interacting with the refrigerant in the condenser or evaporator, or through a secondary heat transfer fluid. It also can be integrated in the building envelope or within the ducts of the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. Cost-effective integration of TES into buildings adds significant cost, and it is one of the key barriers preventing the commercialization and deployment of TES. The optimal strategy for integrating TES with buildings has yet to be determined for various applications of TES. Nevertheless, thermal storage materials are far less costly per unit of energy stored than electricity storage materials. This means that thermal storage has the potential to reduce the cost to society of energy storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1998

SPARCLE: Validation of Observing System Simulations (SPace Readiness Coherent Lidar Experiment)

NASA recently approved a mission to fly a Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) on a U.S. Space Shuttle. SPARCLE, managed by Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, is targeted for launch in March 2001. This mission is viewed as a necessary demonstration of a solid state (2 micron) lidar using coherent detection before committing resources to a 3-5 year research or operational mission. While, to many, this shuttle mission is seen as the first step in a series leading to a fully operational wind observing system, to others, it is a chance to validate predictions of performance based upon theoretical models, analyses of airborne and ground-based data, and sophisticated observing system simulation experiments. This paper will be presented in two parts: first a brief overview of the SPARCLE mission and second, a summary of current performance predictions and key contributions from ground- based and airborne DWL research. The SPARCLE instrument is a 100 mJ, 6 Hz, diode-pumped 2-micron laser with a .25 m telescope using heterodyne mixing in a fiber and an InGaAs detector. A 25 cm silicon wedge scanner will be used in step-stare modes with dwells ranging from 60 seconds to .5 seconds. Pointing knowledge is achieved with a dedicated GPS/INS mounted close to the lidar. NASA's Hitchhiker program is providing the instrument enclosures (2 cans) and mission logistics support. An on-board data system is sized to record 150 Gbytes of raw signal from a two 400 MHZ A/D converters. On-board signal processing will be used to control the frequency of the Local Oscillator. SPARCLE is predicted to have a single shot backscatter sensitivity near 1x10(exp -6) m-1 sr-1, To achieve higher sensitivity, shot accumulation will be employed. Ground-based, 2 micron DWLs have been used to assess the benefits of shot accumulation (approximately SQRT for SNR). Airborne programs like MACAWS have provided good datasets for evaluating various sampling strategies and signal processing algorithms. Using these real data to calibrate our simulation models, we can describe when and how well SPARCLE is expected to preform. Outputs from these performance models will be presented.

Emmitt, G. D.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world

Global climate model simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts ' (HAPPI) project were used to assess how wind power generation over Europe would change in a future world where global temperatures reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Comparing recent historical (2006–2015) and future 1.5 °C forcing experiments highlights that the climate models demonstrate a northward shift in the Atlantic jet, leading to a significant (p < 0.01) increase in surface winds over the UK and Northern Europe and a significant (p < 0.05) reduction over Southern Europe. We use a wind turbine power model to transform daily near-surface (10 m) wind speeds into daily wind power output, accounting for sub-daily variability, the height of the turbine, and power losses due to transmission and distribution of electricity. To reduce regional model biases we use bias-corrected 10 m wind speeds. We see an increase in power generation potential over much of Europe, with the greatest increase in load factor over the UK of around four percentage points. Increases in variability are seen over much of central and northern Europe with the largest seasonal change in summer. Focusing on the UK, we find that wind energy production during spring and autumn under 1.5 °C forcing would become as productive as it is currently during the peak winter season. Similarly, summer winds would increase driving up wind generation to resemble levels currently seen in spring and autumn. We conclude that the potential for wind energy in Northern Europe may be greater than has been previously assumed, with likely increases even in a 1.5 °C warmer world. While there is the potential for Southern Europe to see a reduction in their wind resource, these decreases are likely to be negligible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Colorado River Basin Water and Hydropower Operations

Drought, variable renewable energy (VRE) resources (primarily wind and photovoltaic technologies), and power markets can all impact hydropower plant operations. We analyze how these three factors collectively may potentially change the future operation and economics of federal dams and hydropower plants located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Federal CRB energy and capacity resources, including 4,200 MW of hydropower capacity, are marketed by Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) and sold through long-term Firm Electric Service (FES) contracts to entities located in 15 western and central States that serve millions of electricity consumers. The parameters of FES contracts allow a wide range of scheduling flexibility for FES customers. The FES customers will adjust the timing of energy delivery according to the changing water, power market, and VRE contribution level to the power grid. We simulate and project water and hydropower operations with two models: 1) reservoir operation and 2) power system operation (production cost) with various temporal granularity. We consider two sets of grid scenarios (one representing today's infrastructure, and one representing higher VRE contributions in 2036) and two sets of water scenarios (drought and normal hydrology). We modeled scenarios to understand the power market-energy price levels and patterns, FES customer scheduling, hydropower economics, WAPA finances and hydropower operation for various hydrologic conditions, and VRE contribution level to the power grid. The detailed modeling framework includes: (1) creating ensembles of CRB hydrologic and hydropower futures, (2) selecting representative futures, (3) simulation of FES customer contracts, (4) simulating western U.S. power grid economic scheduling and dispatch under two VRE contribution levels, utilizing information from modeling steps (1)-(4), (5) assessment of reservoir water and hydropower operation, and (6) comparing scenario operations and economics. Our study team comprising WAPA, and an interdisciplinary team of national labs will gain insight into how WAPA can prepare for and adapt its practices in response to an evolving U.S. power grid.

Colorado River↗
DOE OSTI2016

Smarter Grid Solutions | National Renewable Energy Laboratory: Active Management Integration: June 2015 - November 2016

This report presents the project results for the NREL INTEGRATE demonstration project: Active Network Management (ANM) Integration. Consistent with the INTEGRATE program's objective of increasing the grid's clean energy hosting capacity and providing grid services in a holistic manner, the project demonstrated the use of ANM to enable very high penetrations of solar PV and wind energy systems. Results obtained using a representative North American distribution system showed ANM's autonomous distributed control doubled the interconnected wind and solar systems by managing thermal and voltage constraints in real-time. These generators flexibly interconnected to the grid via ANM's end-to-end control architecture, and were managed and coordinated with other smart distributed energy resources (DER; e.g. EVs, battery ESS, controllable load) to unlock the grid's dynamic hosting capacity. As a smart grid application to standardize grid integration of diverse renewable generation sources, ANM provides the industry with a scalable, cost-effective alternative to traditional transmission and distribution (T&D) reinforcements. This project considered three use cases of the application of ANM: a Smart Home demonstration of ANM control of residential scale devices (PV, EV, and battery ESS); a Smart Campus demonstration of high penetration megawatt-scale DER (PV, EVs, battery ESS, and controllable load) behind a single point-of-common-coupling (PCC), and a Smart Distribution demonstration that combined prior use cases along with additional community/utility-scale DER at very high aggregate penetration levels. The Smart Distribution use case provided an integrated perspective of ANM across all distribution grid DER device scales (incorporating aggregated Smart Homes and the Smart Campus) in order to showcase how these devices can support smart grid services to manage DER related constraints in a safe and reliable manner; and likewise how ANM integrates with grid modernization initiatives. The ANM system was deployed in NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF), and project industry advisors attended an on-site demonstration and a set of workshops in order to review project outcomes and evaluate the relevance of ANM for increasing the grid hosting capacity. The outcomes of this effort include an assessment of opportunities for field deployment of ANM to address existing interconnection challenges, as well as consolidating project advisor suggestions for investment in ANM and potential future pilots for more advanced schemes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2011

Elk Valley Rancheria Energy Efficiency and Alternatives Analysis

The Elk Valley Rancheria, California ('Tribe') is a federally recognized Indian tribe located in Del Norte County, California, in the northwestern corner of California. The Tribe, its members and Tribal enterprises are challenged by increasing energy costs and undeveloped local energy resources. The Tribe currently lacks an energy program. The Tribal government lacked sufficient information to make informed decisions about potential renewable energy resources, energy alternatives and other energy management issues. To meet this challenge efficiently, the Tribe contracted with Frank Zaino and Associates, Inc. to help become more energy self-sufficient, by reducing their energy costs and promoting energy alternatives that stimulate economic development. Frank Zaino & Associates, Inc. provided a high level economic screening analysis based on anticipated electric and natural gas rates. This was in an effort to determine which alternative energy system will performed at a higher level so the Tribe could reduce their energy model by 30% from alternative fuel sources. The feasibility study will identify suitable energy alternatives and conservation methods that will benefit the Tribe and tribal community through important reductions in cost. The lessons learned from these conservation efforts will yield knowledge that will serve a wider goal of executing energy efficiency measures and practices in Tribal residences and business facilities. Pacific Power is the provider of electrical power to the four properties under review at $ 0.08 per Kilowatt-hour (KWH). This is a very low energy cost compared to alternative energy sources. The Tribe used baseline audits to assess current and historic energy usage at four Rancheria owned facilities. Past electric and gas billing statements were retained for review for the four buildings that will be audited. A comparative assessment of the various energy usages will determine the demand, forecast future need and identify the differences in energy costs, narrowing the focus of the work and defining its scope. The Tribe's peak demand periods will help determine the scope of need for alternative energy sources. The Tribe's Energy Efficiency and Alternatives Analysis report included several system investigations which include fuel cells, wind turbines, solar panels, hydro electric, ground source heat pumps, bio mass, cogeneration & energy conservation and implementation for the existing properties. The energy analysis included site visits to collect and analyze historical energy usage and cost. The analysis also included the study of the building systems for the Elk Valley Casino, Elk Valley Rancheria administration complex, United Indian Health Service/Small Community Center complex and the Tribal Gaming Commission Offices. The analysis involved identifying modifications, performing an engineering economic analysis, preparation of a rank ordered list of modifications and preparation of a report to provide recommendations and actions for the Tribe to implement.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2013

National Open-ocean Energy Laboratory (Final Technical Report)

Under the authorization provided by Section 634 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (P.L. 110-140), in 2009 FAU was awarded U.S. Congressionally Directed Program (CDP) funding through the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to investigate and develop technologies to harness the energy of the Florida Current as a source of clean, renewable, base-load power for Florida and the U.S. A second CDP award in 2010 provided additional funding in order to enhance and extend FAU’s activities. These two CDPs in 2009 and 2010 were combined into a single DOE grant, DE-EE0000319, and are the subject of this report. Subsequently, in July 2010 funding was made available under a separate contract, DE-EE0004200. Under that funding, DOE’s Wind and Water Power Program designated FAU’s state of Florida marine renewable energy (MRE) center as the Southeast National Marine Renewable Energy Center (SNMREC). This report discusses SNMREC activities funded by the DE-EE0000319 grant, but will make reference, as appropriate, to activities that require further investigation under the follow-on grant. The concept of extracting energy from the motions of the oceans has a long history. However, implementation on large scales of the technologies to effect renewable energy recovery from waves, tides, and open-ocean currents is relatively recent. DOE’s establishment of SNMREC recognizes a significant potential for ocean current energy recovery associated with the (relatively) high-speed Florida Current, the reach of the Gulf Stream System flowing through the Straits of Florida, between the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas Archipelago. The proximity of the very large electrical load center of southeast Florida’s metropolitan area to the resource itself makes this potential all the more attractive. As attractive as this potential energy source is, it is not without its challenges. Although the technology is conceptually simple, its design and implementation in a commercially-viable fashion presents a variety of challenges. Beyond the technology itself (and, especially, the effects on the technology of the harsh oceanic environment), it is important to consider the possible environmental impacts of commercial-scale implementation of oceanic energy extraction. Further, because such implementation represents a completely new undertaking, the human resources required do not exist, so education and training programs are critical to eventual success. This project, establishing a national open-ocean energy laboratory, was designed to address each of these three challenges in a flexible framework allowing for adaptive management as the project proceeded. In particular: the technology challenge, including resource assessment, evolved during the project to recognize and address the need for a national testing facility in the ocean for small-scale prototype MRE systems developed by industry; the environmental challenge became formalized and expanded during the permitting process for such a testing facility; and the human resources/societal challenges, both in terms of the need for education and training and in terms of public acceptance of MRE, stimulated a robust outreach program far beyond that originally envisioned at SNMREC. While all of these activities at SNMREC are ongoing, a number of significant milestones (in addition to the contributions listed in the appendices) were achieved under the auspices of this award. These include: Planning and site selection for the first-phase test facility, offshore of Dania Beach, FL, including some equipment for the facility, submission of an Interim Policy Lease Application to the U.S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), and completion of an Environmental Assessment by BOEM and a positive Consistency Determination by the State of Florida; Measurements using acoustic profilers of the current structure and variability in the vicinity of the site under a variety of weather conditions, seasons and time durations; Design and implementation of instrumentation for the first phase of the offshore testing facility, the wet- and top-side data acquisition systems, and shore-based analysis systems; Implementation of a laboratory-scale dynamometer system to test generators of up to 25 kW capacity using real-world (simulated) forcing; Completion of 24 months of (airborne) marine vertebrate surveys and associated analysis of sea turtle offshore activity, marine mammal vocalization research, and ocean current turbine hydrodynamic noise characterization; Development of a secondary-school (nominally grade 10) curriculum about hydrokinetic MRE, “Energy from the Oceans: The New Renewable”, and training of over 200 high-school teachers in its use and in how to educate their colleagues in application of the material in the classroom; Presentations to over 50 interested civic groups in the region on various aspects of MRE in SE Florida A series of public lectures to over 600 residents of south Florida to provide broader education on MRE. Development of an interactive kiosk for installation in local science museums. These, and other accomplishments detailed in this report contribute to a comprehensive ongoing program at the SNMREC to support the affordable, responsible, and achievable commercialization of MRE. Many of the tasks of this award are continued or will be verified with follow-on funding DE-EE0004200, and its goal: the installation of the world’s first offshore ocean current turbine testing and validation capability.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2017

Air Flow Modeling in the Wind Tunnel of the FHWA Aerodynamics Laboratory at Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling is widely used in industry for design and in the research community to support, compliment, and extend the scope of experimental studies. Analysis of transportation infrastructure using high performance cluster computing with CFD and structural mechanics software is done at the Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center (TRACC) at Argonne National Laboratory. These resources, available at TRACC, were used to perform advanced three-dimensional computational simulations of the wind tunnel laboratory at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center (TFHRC). The goals were to verify the CFD model of the laboratory wind tunnel and then to use versions of the model to provide the capability to (1) perform larger parametric series of tests than can be easily done in the laboratory with available budget and time, (2) to extend testing to wind speeds that cannot be achieved in the laboratory, and (3) to run types of tests that are very difficult or impossible to run in the laboratory. Modern CFD software has many physics models and domain meshing options. Models, including the choice of turbulence and other physics models and settings, the computational mesh, and the solver settings, need to be validated against measurements to verify that the results are sufficiently accurate for use in engineering applications. The wind tunnel model was built and tested, by comparing to experimental measurements, to provide a valuable tool to perform these types of studies in the future as a complement and extension to TFHRC’s experimental capabilities. Wind tunnel testing at TFHRC is conducted in a subsonic open-jet wind tunnel with a 1.83 m (6 foot) by 1.83 m (6 foot) cross section. A three component dual force-balance system is used to measure forces acting on tested models, and a three degree of freedom suspension system is used for dynamic response tests. Pictures of the room are shown in Figure 1-1 to Figure 1-4. A detailed CAD geometry and CFD model of the wind tunnel laboratory at TFHRC was built and tested. Results were compared against experimental wind velocity measurements at a large number of locations around the room. This testing included an assessment of the air flow uniformity provided by the tunnel to the test zone and assessment of room geometry effects, such as influence of the proximity the room walls, the non-symmetrical position of the tunnel in the room, and the influence of the room setup on the air flow in the room. This information is useful both for simplifying the computational model and in deciding whether or not moving, or removing, some of the furniture or other movable objects in the room will change the flow in the test zone.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Energy Storage Integrated with a Combined Cycle Plant

A project is being developed that will build upon the existing infrastructure and resources at the Intermountain Power Project (IPP) site to provide reliable, dispatchable energy and to support the transmission of renewable energy resources while transitioning to an economical green energy future. The concept study depicted in this report outlines a techno-economic optimization to fulfill the demand for 30% vol hydrogen co-firing in the IPP 840 MW advanced class combined cycle power plant. In an initial step, a site assessment concluded the site has sufficient land available to co-locate a hydrogen production and storage facility. The team evaluated and defined a scalable concept that considered technology characteristics, including input and output models to be used for optimization purposes. The concept for the hydrogen production and storage system integrates multiple technologies, to determine system size and scalable approach, for each of the technologies evaluated, the team defined component and subcomponent sizes, minimum and maximum capacity, modularity, component utility consumption (electric, water), component flexibility and servicing, layout, and technology status, as well as technology alternatives. For hydrogen generation, the project considers Siemens Energy’s Silyzer-300 (S300) technology, a 17.5 MW modular Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolyzer. For the S300 configuration, the team determined that three S300 arrays, or approximately 1,000 kg/hr, per block would yield a compact block design. This configuration results in a fairly wide and flexible arrangement that fits well into the spaces available at the site. Therefore, the overall design approach is based on multiple identical blocks of 3 arrays to minimize engineering cost and optimize constructability. In parallel, a transmission screening study was conducted to determine any potential transmission constraints from the energy sources that could feed the hydrogen production equipment. The study results show that minimum transmission constraints would be encountered to deliver 400 MW renewable generation from southern California, or south-central Wyoming. At last, the techno-economic analysis concluded that a scenario that uses solar and wind power yields the lowest levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH 2 ) production and the lowest cost per tonne of CO 2 reduced. In this optimized scenario, the hydrogen production plant was determined as 6,201 kg/hr and the hydrogen storage (underground cavern) was determined as 4,600 tonnes. The resulting capacity factor for the hydrogen production plant was 66.33% with 8,745 operating hours in one year. This techno-economic analysis provided various options for integrating hydrogen storage at the Intermountain Power Plant site to co-fire the CCPP units. The results provide insightful data about the magnitude of capacity needed and the economics of producing hydrogen and reducing CO 2 emissions.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

The evolving role of geothermal energy for decarbonizing the United States

Geothermal energy is often referred to as a niche technology that is too localized, too small or too expensive to make much of a difference in how renewable energy will be supplied in a fully decarbonized future. As a result, geothermal energy has been undervalued in terms of what it could provide to complement, rather than compete with, electricity generation from wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrating solar power and other renewables. Geothermal energy systems are fully dispatchable and can provide baseload or load-following electric power or heat suitable for a wide range of applications including supplying district heating for communities and cities, and heating and cooling of individual buildings. The focus of our study is on the potential of utilizing geothermal energy for providing heat for buildings and industry at lower temperatures, a substitute for the combustion of fossil fuels. Because heating represents about 20% (20 EJ per year) of the annual primary energy consumption in the U.S.—with most of it coming from burning natural gas, oil and/or propane in furnaces—deploying geothermal heating on a national scale could have a significant impact on lowering carbon emissions. In heating-dominated states in the U.S. Northern Tier, heating often is among the largest contributors to the state's carbon footprint. This review begins with a discussion of the motivation and rationale behind considering geothermal as a key low-carbon heating option for the U.S. The study summarizes the U.S. geothermal resource and describes the applications and main engineering components of using geothermal energy for heating and cooling, electric power generation, and co-generation using district heating, geothermal heat pumps, and power conversion with steam flashing and organic Rankine plants. Environmental benefits and impacts are described. An extensive discussion of geologic and thermal-hydraulic aspects of the subsurface is included in the review because of their critical role in determining reservoir designs at specific sites to ensure sufficient productivity that is both safe and economically viable. Models for estimating levelized costs of district heating are used to show how costs are affected by reservoir performance, infrastructure capital costs, and financial parameters. Here, the review concludes with an assessment of technical subsurface issues associated with reservoir performance and the economic requirements for providing geothermal heating in district heating systems at a sufficient scale to have an impact on decarbonizing the U.S.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2004

Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

The purpose of this joint University of Wisconsin (UW) and Louisiana State University (LSU) project has been to relate short term climate variation to response in the coastal zone of Louisiana in an attempt to better understand how the coastal zone is shaped by climate variation. Climate variation in this case largely refers to variation in surface wind conditions that affect wave action and water currents in the coastal zone. The primary region of focus was the Atchafalaya Bay and surrounding bays in the central coastal region of Louisiana. Suspended solids in the water column show response to wind systems both in quantity (through resuspension) and in the pattern of dispersement or transport. Wind systems associated with cold fronts are influenced by short term climate variation. Wind energy was used as the primary signature of climate variation in this study because winds are a significant influence on sediment transport in the micro-tidal Gilf of Mexico coastal zone. Using case studies, the project has been able to investigate the influence of short term climate variation on sediment transport. Wind energy data, collected daily for National Weather Service (NWS) stations at Lake Charles and New Orleans, LA, were used as an indicator of short term climate variation influence on seasonal time scales. A goal was to relate wind energy to coastal impact through sediment transport. This goal was partially accomplished by combining remote sensing and wind energy data. Daily high resolution remote sensing observations are needed to monitor the complex coastal zone environment, where winds, tides, and water level all interact to influence sediment transport. The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) era brings hope for documenting and revealing response of the complex coastal transport mosaic through regular high spatial resolution observations from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument. MODIS observations were sampled in this project for information content and should continue to be viewed as a resource for coastal zone monitoring. The project initialized the effort to transfer a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to the MODIS platform for case 2 waters. MODIS enables monitoring of turbid coastal zones around the globe. The MODIS SSC algorithm requires refinements in the atmospheric aerosol contribution, sun glint influence, and designation of the sediment inherent optical properties (IOPs); the framework for continued development is in place with a plan to release the algorithm to the MODIS direct broadcast community.

Menzel, W. Paul↗