Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Uncertainties”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Parameter Uncertainty for Aircraft Aerodynamic Modeling using Recursive Least Squares

A real-time method was demonstrated for determining accurate uncertainty levels of stability and control derivatives estimated using recursive least squares and time-domain data. The method uses a recursive formulation of the residual autocorrelation to account for colored residuals, which are routinely encountered in aircraft parameter estimation and change the predicted uncertainties. Simulation data and flight test data for a subscale jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the approach. Results showed that the corrected uncertainties matched the observed scatter in the parameter estimates, and did so more accurately than conventional uncertainty estimates that assume white residuals. Only small differences were observed between batch estimates and recursive estimates at the end of the maneuver. It was also demonstrated that the autocorrelation could be reduced to a small number of lags to minimize computation and memory storage requirements without significantly degrading the accuracy of predicted uncertainty levels.

Grauer, Jared A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Afterbody Radiative Heating Predictions for Earth Entry

The objective of this work was to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for afterbody radiative heating predictions of Stardust capsule during Earth entry at peak afterbody radiation conditions. The radiation environment in the afterbody region poses significant challenges for accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis due to the complexity of the flow physics, computational cost, and large number of un-certain variables. In this study, first a sparse collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach along with global non-linear sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant uncertain variables and reduce the dimensions of the stochastic problem. Then, a total order stochastic expansion was constructed over only the important parameters for an efficient and accurate estimate of the uncertainty in radiation. Based on previous work, 388 uncertain parameters were considered in the radiation model, which came from the thermodynamics, flow field chemistry, and radiation modeling. The sensitivity analysis showed that only four of these variables contributed significantly to afterbody radiation uncertainty, accounting for almost 95% of the uncertainty. These included the electronic- impact excitation rate for N between level 2 and level 5 and rates of three chemical reactions in uencing N, N(+), O, and O(+) number densities in the flow field.

West, Thomas K., IV↗
NASA NTRS2016

Progress of Aircraft System Noise Assessment with Uncertainty Quantification for the Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project

Aircraft system noise predictions have been performed for NASA modeled hybrid wing body aircraft advanced concepts with 2025 entry-into-service technology assumptions. The system noise predictions developed over a period from 2009 to 2016 as a result of improved modeling of the aircraft concepts, design changes, technology development, flight path modeling, and the use of extensive integrated system level experimental data. In addition, the system noise prediction models and process have been improved in many ways. An additional process is developed here for quantifying the uncertainty with a 95% confidence level. This uncertainty applies only to the aircraft system noise prediction process. For three points in time during this period, the vehicle designs, technologies, and noise prediction process are documented. For each of the three predictions, and with the information available at each of those points in time, the uncertainty is quantified using the direct Monte Carlo method with 10,000 simulations. For the prediction of cumulative noise of an advanced aircraft at the conceptual level of design, the total uncertainty band has been reduced from 12.2 to 9.6 EPNL dB. A value of 3.6 EPNL dB is proposed as the lower limit of uncertainty possible for the cumulative system noise prediction of an advanced aircraft concept.

Thomas, Russell H.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Multifidelity, Multidisciplinary Design Under Uncertainty with Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos

The primary objective of this work is to develop an approach for multifidelity uncertainty quantification and to lay the framework for future design under uncertainty efforts. In this study, multifidelity is used to describe both the fidelity of the modeling of the physical systems, as well as the difference in the uncertainty in each of the models. For computational efficiency, a multifidelity surrogate modeling approach based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos using the point-collocation technique is developed for the treatment of both multifidelity modeling and multifidelity uncertainty modeling. Two stochastic model problems are used to demonstrate the developed methodologies: a transonic airfoil model and multidisciplinary aircraft analysis model. The results of both showed the multifidelity modeling approach was able to predict the output uncertainty predicted by the high-fidelity model as a significant reduction in computational cost.

West, Thomas K., IV↗
NASA NTRS2017

Uncertainty Estimation Cheat Sheet for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Quantitative results for aerospace engineering problems are influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables as well as through the propagation of these uncertainties up to the result. Uncertainty can be thought of as a measure of the 'goodness' of a result and is typically represented as statistical dispersion. This paper will explain common measures of centrality and dispersion; and-with examples-will provide guidelines for how they may be estimated to ensure effective technical contributions to decision-making.

Britton, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2018

Uncertainty in Inverted Pendulum Thrust Measurements

An uncertainty analysis of a common configuration of electric propulsion thrust stand is presented. The analysis applies to inverted pendulum thrust stands operating in a null-coil configuration with in-situ calibration. Several sources of bias and precision uncertainty are discussed, propagated, and combined to form conservative estimates of the relative and absolute thrust uncertainties. A case study of the NASA Glenn Research Center Vacuum Facility 6 thrust stand is presented. For the thruster investigated, the uncertainty was estimated to be +/-6.9 mN over the entire span of thrust. This uncertainty represents a maximum instrument bias introduced by the thrust stand. The paper does not address repeatability of actual thrust measurements, as this is generally beyond the influence of the thrust stand and can be dependent on a large number of factors.

Mackey, J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Uncertainty in Inverted Pendulum Thrust Measurements

An uncertainty analysis of a common configuration of electric propulsion thrust stand is presented. The analysis applies to inverted pendulum thrust stands operating in a null-coil configuration with in-situ calibration. Several sources of bias and precision uncertainty are discussed, propagated, and combined to form conservative estimates of the relative and absolute thrust uncertainties. A case study of the NASA Glenn Research Center Vacuum Facility 6 thrust stand is presented. For the thruster investigated, the uncertainty was estimated to be ±6.9 mN over the entire span of thrust. This uncertainty represents a maximum instrument bias introduced by the thrust stand. The paper does not address repeatability of actual thrust measurements, as this is generally beyond the influence of the thrust stand and can be dependent on a large number of factors.

Mackey, Jonathan A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Uncertainty in Inverted Pendulum Thrust Measurements

An uncertainty analysis of a common configuration of electric propulsion thrust stand is presented. The analysis applies to inverted pendulum thrust stands operating in a null-coil configuration with in-situ calibration. Several sources of bias and precision uncertainty are discussed, propagated, and combined to form conservative estimates of the relative and absolute thrust uncertainties. A case study of the NASA Glenn Research Center Vacuum Facility 6 thrust stand is presented. For the thruster investigated, the uncertainty was estimated to be ±6.9mN over the entire span of thrust. This uncertainty represents a maximum instrument bias introduced by the thrust stand. The paper does not address repeatability of actual thrust measurements, as this is generally beyond the influence of the thrust stand and can be dependent on a large number of factors.

Mackey, Jonathan A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Multifidelity Uncertainty Quantification of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

The objective of this work was to develop a multifidelity uncertainty quantification approach for efficient analysis of a commercial supersonic transport concept. An approach based on point-collocation, non-intrusive polynomial chaos was formulated in which a low-fidelity model could be corrected using multiple higher-fidelity models. The formulation and methodology also allows for the addition of uncertainty sources not present in the lower fidelity models. To demonstrate the applicability and potential computational savings of the multifidelity polynomial chaos approach, two model problems were explored. The first was a supersonic airfoil with three levels of modeling fidelity, each capturing a gradual increase in modeling of the underlying flow physics. As much as 50% computational cost reduction was observed using the mutlifidelity approach, while predicting nearly the same amount of uncertainty in drag. The second problem was a commercial supersonic transport. This model had three levels of fidelity that included two different modeling approaches and the addition of physics between the fidelity levels. Results of this analysis yielded nearly a 70% computational savings to predict a comparable amount of uncertainty in ground noise. Both problems illustrate the applicability and significant computational savings of the multifidelity method for efficient and accurate uncertainty quantification.

Thomas K. West IV↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of single-footprint AIRS CH4 Profile Retrieval Uncertainties Using Aircraft Profile Measurements

We evaluate the uncertainties of methane optimal estimation retrievals from single footprint thermal infrared observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). These retrievals are primarily sensitive to atmospheric methane in the mid-troposphere through the lower stratosphere (~2 to ~17 km). We compare to in situ observations made from aircraft during the Hiaper Pole to Pole Observations (HIPPO), the NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) campaigns, and from the NOAA ESRL aircraft network, between the surface and 5-13 km, across a range of years, latitudes between 60 S to 80 N, and over land and ocean. After a global, pressure dependent bias correction, we find that the land and ocean have similar biases and that the reported observation error (combined measurement and interference errors) of ~27 ppb is consistent with the standard deviation between aircraft and individual AIRS observations. A single measurement has measurement (noise related) uncertainty of ~17 ppb, a ~20 ppb uncertainty from radiative interferences (e.g. from water, temperature, etc.), and ~ 30 ppb due to “smoothing error”, which is partially removed when making comparisons to in situ measurements or models in a way that account for this regularization. We estimate a 16 ppb validation error because the aircraft typically did not measure methane at altitudes where the AIRS measurements have some sensitivity, e.g. the stratosphere. Daily averaged AIRS measurements of at least 9 observations over spatio-temporal domains of < 1 degree and 1 hour have a standard deviation of ~17 ppb versus aircraft, likely because the observation errors from temperature and water vapor (for example) are only partly reduced through averaging. Seasonal averages can reduce this ~17 ppb uncertainty further to ~10 ppb, as determined through comparison with NOAA aircraft, likely because uncertainties related to radiative effects of temperature and water vapor can be reduced when averaged over a season.

Susan Kulawik↗
NASA NTRS2020

The AERONET Version 3 Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm, Associated Uncertainties and Comparisons to Version 2

The Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 (V3) aerosol retrieval algorithm is described, which is based on the Version 2 (V2) algorithm with numerous updates. Comparisons of V3 aerosol retrievals to those of V2 are presented, along with a new approach to estimate uncertainties in many of the retrieved aerosol parameters. Changes in the V3 aerosol retrieval algorithm include (1) a new polarized radiative transfer code (RTC), which replaced the scalar RTC of V2, (2) detailed characterization of gas absorption by adding NO2 and H2O to specify total gas absorption in the atmospheric column, specification of vertical profiles of all the atmospheric species, (3) new bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) parameters for land sites adopted from the MODIS BRDF/Albedo product, (4) a new version of the extraterrestrial solar flux spectrum, and (5) a new temperature correction procedure of both direct Sun and sky radiance measurements. The potential effect of each change in V3 on single scattering albedo (SSA) retrievals was analyzed. The operational almucantar retrievals of V2 versus V3 were compared for four AERONET sites: GSFC, Mezaira, Mongu, and Kanpur. Analysis showed very good agreement in retrieved parameters of the size distributions. Comparisons of SSA retrievals for dust aerosols (Mezaira) showed a good agreement in 440 nm SSA, while for longer wavelengths V3 SSAs are systematically higher than those of V2, with the largest mean difference at 675 nm due to cumulative effects of both extraterrestrial solar flux and BRDF changes. For non-dust aerosols, the largest SSA deviation is at 675 nm due to differences in extraterrestrial solar flux spectrums used in each version. Further, the SSA 675 nm mean differences are very different for weakly (GSFC) and strongly (Mongu) absorbing aerosols, which is explained by the lower sensitivity to a bias in aerosol scattering optical depth by less absorbing aerosols. A new hybrid (HYB) sky radiance measurement scan is introduced and discussed. The HYB combines features of scans in two different planes to maximize the range of scattering angles and achieve scan symmetry, thereby allowing for cloud screening and spatial averaging, which is an advantage over the principal plane scan that lacks robust symmetry. We show that due to an extended range of scattering angles, HYB SSA retrievals for dust aerosols exhibit smaller variability with solar zenith angles (SZAs) than those of almucantar (ALM), which allows extension of HYB SSA retrievals to SZAs less than 50∘ to as small as 25∘. The comparison of SSA retrievals from closely time-matched HYB and ALM scans in the 50 to 75∘ SZA range showed good agreement with the differences below ∼0.005. We also present an approach to estimate retrieval uncertainties which utilizes the variability in retrieved parameters generated by perturbing both measurements and auxiliary input parameters as a proxy for retrieval uncertainty. The perturbations in measurements and auxiliary inputs are assumed as estimated biases in aerosol optical depth (AOD), radiometric calibration of sky radiances combined with solar spectral irradiance, and surface reflectance. For each set of Level 2 Sun/sky radiometer observations, 27 inputs corresponding to 27 combinations of biases were produced and separately inverted to generate the following statistics of the inversion results: average, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values. From these statistics, standard deviation (labeled U27) is used as a proxy for estimated uncertainty, and a lookup table (LUT) approach was implemented to reduce the computational time. The U27 climatological LUT was generated from the entire AERONET almucantar (1993–2018) and hybrid (2014–2018) scan databases by binning U27s in AOD (440 nm), Angström exponent (AE, 440–870 nm), and SSA (440, 675, 870, 1020 nm). Using this LUT approach, the uncertainty estimates U27 for each individual V3 Level 2 retrieval can be obtained by interpolation using the corresponding measured and inverted combination of AOD, AE, and SSA.

Aliaksandr Siniuk↗
NASA NTRS2021

Quantifying the range of the dust direct radiative effect due to source mineralogy uncertainty

The large uncertainty in the mineral dust direct radiative effect (DRE) hinders projections of future climate change due to anthropogenic activity. Resolving modeled dust mineral speciation allows for spatially and temporally varying refractive indices consistent with dust aerosol composition. Here, for the first time, we quantify the range in dust DRE at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) due to current uncertainties in the surface soil mineralogical content using a dust mineral-resolving climate model. We propagate observed uncertainties in soil mineral abundances from two soil mineralogy atlases along with the optical properties of each mineral into the DRE and compare the resultant range with other sources of uncertainty across six climate models. The shortwave DRE responds region-specifically to the dust burden depending on the mineral speciation and underlying shortwave surface albedo: positively when the regionally averaged annual surface albedo is larger than 0.28 and negatively otherwise. Among all minerals examined, the shortwave TOA DRE and single scattering albedo at the 0.44–0.63 µm band are most sensitive to the fractional contribution of iron oxides to the total dust composition. The global net (shortwave plus longwave) TOA DRE is estimated to be within −0.23 to +0.35 W/sq. m. Approximately 97 % of this range relates to uncertainty in the soil abundance of iron oxides. Representing iron oxide with solely hematite optical properties leads to an overestimation of shortwave DRE by +0.10 W/sq. m at the TOA, as goethite is not as absorbing as hematite in the shortwave spectrum range. Our study highlights the importance of iron oxides to the shortwave DRE: they have a disproportionally large impact on climate considering their small atmospheric mineral mass fractional burden (∼2 %). An improved description of iron oxides, such as those planned in the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT), is thus essential for more accurate estimates of the dust DRE.

mineral dust↗
NASA NTRS2022

Look-up Table Approach for Uncertainty Determination for Operational Vicarious Calibration of Earth Imaging Sensors

Understanding the uncertainty of a vicarious calibration is essential for any application to Earth imaging sensors. The Radiometric Calibration Network provides SI-traceable spectral top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance from a network of ground sites and uses a look-up table (LUT) approach for uncertainty determination. The uncertainty LUT was derived using Monte Carlo techniques applied to the relevant solar geometry, surface, and atmospheric variables. While surface reflectance is typically the dominant uncertainty source, atmospheric contributions do play an important role, depending upon the exact scenario and conditions. This approach allows knowledge of TOA reflectance uncertainty to within 0.5%.

Brian N. Wenny↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PACE OCI Short-Wave Infrared Detection Assembly frequency-dependent linearity characterization and uncertainty analysis

The Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), the primary payload of the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE)observatory, will collect data to monitor the health of Earth’s oceans and atmosphere. The Short-Wave Infrared(SWIR) Detection Assembly (SDA) was built and characterized by the Utah State University Space DynamicsLaboratory (SDL) and is a subsystem of OCI. The SDA measures seven bands centered at 940, 1038, 1250, 1378,1615, 2130, and 2260 nm, with standard- and high-gain varieties for the 1250 and 1615 nm bands, resulting in nine total detection configurations in the SWIR. The delivery of high-quality science data is critically dependent upon accurately characterizing the linearity of the SDA. Two metrology techniques were employed to measure the linearity and characterize the frequency-dependent linearity uncertainty of the system. The first technique used superposition linearity measurements to determine the DC linearity, and the second technique involved an oscillating small-signal response at seven frequencies to determine the frequency-dependent linearity. Discrepancies between the DC and frequency-dependent linearities constrain the uncertainty between the two. Examining the difference between these two methods for all SDA channels, we find most channels experience an uncertainty below0.2% with a worst-case measurement uncertainty of 0.31%. Averaging SDA channels with similar detectors, optical filters, and electronics to simulate the flight-like data products yields a worst-case frequency-dependence linearity uncertainty of 0.12%, demonstrating minimal frequency dependence, implying an excellent linearity knowledge.Detailed performance knowledge, including linearity performance, verifies data quality and builds confidence in the success of the PACE mission.

PACE↗
NASA NTRS2022

MODIS TEB Electronic Crosstalk Correction Update and Impact on L1B Product Uncertainty

The MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites have been in operation for over22 and 20 years, respectively. The instruments’ calibration accuracy has been maintained, even with instrument degradation. Electronic crosstalk in the thermal emissive bands (TEB) is a known issue with an increasing impact on the calibration and product. The Terra MODIS photovoltaic (PV) longwave infrared (LWIR) bands crosstalk corrections have been applied in Collection 6.1 (C6.1). However, the electronic crosstalk contamination for some detectors in the mid-wave infrared (MWIR) bands and the Aqua PVLWIR bands affect the Level-1B (L1B) product’s measurement accuracy and image quality. In Collection 7 (C7), crosstalk corrections for select detectors in the Terra and Aqua MWIR and Aqua PV LWIR bands are applied. The entire mission crosstalk coefficients for the select detectors and bands are derived from scheduled lunar observations and populated in the form of look-up tables (LUTs). The Aqua PV-LWIR bands exhibit similar downward crosstalk trends as the Terra PV-LWIR bands, especially in recent years. The crosstalk coefficients and their trends provide a guideline for the correction application. Earth measurement analyses before and after the correction provide contamination and correction assessments. It has been shown that the product quality is enhanced with the crosstalk correction applied in C7. For C7, the crosstalk coefficient uncertainty is derived from the fit residuals between the measured values and a linear fit over a three-year sliding window. The uncertainty propagation is modeled and applied in the total uncertainty calculation intheL1B product. The TEB electronic crosstalk LUTs have been processed over the entire Terra and Aqua MODIS missions. This paper presents the C7 crosstalk correction, as well as its assessment and uncertainty propagation algorithm to the TEB uncertainty.

Tiejun Chang↗
NASA NTRS2021

Pre-Flight Assessment of Xenon Propellant Usage and Usage Uncertainty for the Psyche Mission

NASA’s Psyche mission will launch in 2022 and begin a 3.6-year cruise to the metallic asteroid Psyche, the largest metal asteroid in the solar system. All primary propulsion will be done with the flight-proven SPT-140 electric propulsion subsystem. The Psyche mission will feature the first use of Hall thrusters for a NASA mission, and the first use of Hall thrusters beyond cis-lunar space, which has presented some unique challenges. In this paper we describe the Psyche propellant feed system architecture, expected propellant usage for the mission, propellant gauging requirements, and challenges associated with propellant gauging. Data from two recent Maxar electric orbit-raising missions with SPT-140 thrusters are reviewed and used to assess in-flight performance. We develop a pressure-volume-temperature gauging method that incorporates the propellant temperature distributions observed in the flight data, and use this method to provide an improved quantitative understanding of in-flight propellant consumption rates and their uncertainties. The results are in excellent agreement with the results of standard Maxar gauging methods and we determine a propellant usage uncertainty of ± 7.1% 3σ based on flight telemetry. Additionally, we demonstrate that the bookkeeping method of propellant gauging accurately predicts the tank pressure flight data. This work has led to design changes in the Psyche spacecraft avionics that will further improve propellant gauging uncertainties, which is particularly important for later phases of the mission. Finally, we statistically combine the predicted propellant mass uncertainties from the two gauging methods and demonstrate that the system will meet the mission requirements for propellant uncertainty. Together, all of this work provides confidence that the Psyche mission can be successfully completed within the existing propellant budget and propellant tank capacity.

Baldwin, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS2022

Modis TEB Electronic Crosstalk Correction Update and Impact on L1B Product Uncertainty

The MODIS instruments on board the Terra and Aqua satellites have been in operation for over 22 and 20 years, respectively. The instruments’ calibration accuracy has been maintained, even with instrument degradation. Electronic crosstalk in the thermal emissive bands (TEB) is a known issue with an increasing impact on the calibration and product. The Terra MODIS photovoltaic (PV) longwave infrared (LWIR) bands crosstalk corrections have been applied in Collection 6.1 (C6.1). However, the electronic crosstalk contamination for some detectors in the mid-wave infrared(MWIR) bands and the Aqua PVLWIR bands affect the Level-1B(L1B) product’s measurement accuracy and image quality. In Collection 7 (C7), crosstalk corrections for select detectors in the Terra and Aqua MWIR and Aqua PV LWIR bands are applied. The entire mission crosstalk coefficients for the select detectors and bands are derived from scheduled lunar observations and populated in the form of look-up tables (LUTs). The Aqua PV-LWIR bands exhibit similar downward crosstalk trends as the Terra PV-LWIR bands, especially in recent years. The crosstalk coefficients and their trends provide a guideline for the correction application. Earth measurement analyses before and after the correction provide contamination and correction assessments. It has been shown that the product quality is enhanced with the crosstalk correction applied in C7. For C7, the crosstalk coefficient uncertainty is derived from the fit residuals between the measured values and a linear fit over a three-year sliding window. The uncertainty propagation is modeled and applied in the total uncertainty calculation intheL1B product. The TEB electronic cross talk LUT shave been processed over the entire Terra and Aqua MODIS missions. This paper presents the C7 crosstalk correction, as well as its assessment and uncertainty propagation algorithm to the TEB uncertainty.

Tiejun Chang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Methods for System-Level Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Analysis of Low-Boom Flight Vehicles

Current research supporting NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology project is focused on the efficient prediction of uncertainty in sonic boom loudness generated by low-boom aircraft concepts. This paper focuses on research incorporating aircraft trim and aerostructural analysis into a multidisciplinary system-level uncertainty analysis. This enables the modeling of a steady-state representation of a point in the uncertainty space, simulating the vehicle as it would be flown. This approach also enables multiple uncertain parameters defining the configuration of the vehicle to be reduced to three: Mach number, altitude, and aircraft weight. To demonstrate this methodology, a case study exploring a conceptual low-boom supersonic aircraft is performed. Two different approaches are used to model the interactions between nearfield pressure signature analysis and sonic boom propagation, and their performance is evaluated in terms of accuracy and computational expense. One method uses a set of local surrogate models to generate a large number of nearfield signatures and perform Monte Carlo analysis. This method is found to produce, at a lower expense, uncertainty metrics that are comparable to the second method, in which uncertainty metrics are computed based on loudness metric values obtained directly from simulated nearfield signatures.

UQ↗