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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Can socio-economic indicators of vulnerability help predict spatial variations in the duration and severity of power outages due to tropical cyclones?

Abstract Tropical cyclones are the leading cause of major power outages in the U.S., and their effects can be devastating for communities. However, few studies have holistically examined the degree to which socio-economic variables can explain spatial variations in disruptions and reveal potential inequities thereof. Here, we apply machine learning techniques to analyze 20 tropical cyclones and predict county-level outage duration and percentage of customers losing power using a comprehensive set of weather, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Our models are able to accurately predict these outage response variables, but after controlling for the effects of weather conditions and environmental factors in the models, we find the effects of socio-economic variables to be largely immaterial. However, county-level data could be overlooking effects of socio-economic disparities taking place at more granular spatial scales, and we must remain aware of the fact that when faced with similar outage events, socio-economically vulnerable communities will still find it more difficult to cope with disruptions compared to less vulnerable ones.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1992

Impact of cumulus initialization on the spinup of precipitation forecasts in the tropics

To ameliorate the precipitation spinup problem, i.e., the prediction model's inability to produce realistic precipitation rates at the beginning of the forecast period, the impact of a tropical initialization procedure on precipitation forecasts is examined. Attention is focused on the examination of the time behavior of precipitation rates and the closely associated variables of horizontal divergence and moisture during the first 42 time steps corresponding to 10.5 h. It is determined that the originally analyzed tropical divergence fields have realistic geographical distributions but there intensities seem to be too low by a factor of two.

Kasahara, Akira↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tropical Tropospheric Ozone Trends (1990 to 2022): A Re-evaluation Based on SHADOZ and IAGOS Profiles and TOMS/OMI Columns

Changes in tropical tropospheric ozone (TTO) are of importance because this region spans roughly a third of the Earth and portions of it are experiencing variability in trends of ozone precursors (CO, NO x , CH 4 and nonmethane hydrocarbons) associated with economic growth and fires. In addition to ozone changes affecting radiative forcing, tropical ozone is an important source of the OH radical and thus, the oxidizing capacity of the planet (Thompson, 1992). Recent studies examining TTO trends satellite and in-situ observations over the past ~25 years include: Thompson et al., JGR, 2021; Gaudel et al., ACP, 2023; Stauffer et al., ACP, 2023. The results show considerable regional and seasonal variability in TTO trends and sensitivity to data selection, frequency, and statistical method used. The satellite data vary most widely in method, time period and reliability. Here we revisit trends for the 1990-2022 period with the best-characterized buv-based satellite products that span that period (derived from TOMS and OMI, Ziemke et al., 2019). The satellite-based trends are compared to trends based on in-situ data from the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network (1998-2022), measurements from selected pre-SHADOZ and IAGOS commercial aircraft data (Gaudel et al., 2023). Among sensitivities examined are the dependence of ozone trends on start and end years, impacts of ENSO events and the COVID-19 perturbation to emissions. Two statistical methods are used, quantile regression (QR) and multiple linear regression (MLR). Trends of total TTO, ozone segments in the boundary layer (to ~700 hPa), and free troposphere (700-300 hPa) are compared.

ozone, OMI, tropospheric ozone, SHADOZ↗
NASA NTRS1984

The global distribution and variability of stratospheric constituents measured by LIMS

The purpose of the Nimbus 7 LIMS experiment was to sound the composition and structure of the upper atmosphere and provide data for study of photochemistry, radiation, and dynamics processes. Vertical profiles were measured of temperature and ozone (O3) over the 10-km to 65-km range and water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, and nitric acid over the 10-km to 50-km range. Latitude coverage extended from 64 deg S to 84 deg N. Several general features of the atmosphere have emerged from data analyzes thus far. Nitrogen dioxide exhibits rapid latitudinal variations in winter and shows hemispheric asymmetry with generally higher vertical column amount in the summer hemisphere. HNO3 data show that this gas is highly variable with altitude, latitude, and season. Smallest mixing ratios occur in the tropics, and the largest values occur in the high latitude winter hemisphere. The results show that O3, NO2, and HNO3 are strongly affected during a stratospheric warming.

Russell, J. M., III↗
NASA NTRS1989

The ground truth analysis of rain gauge data for the TRMM project

As a part of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Missioin (TRMM) ground truth program to determine the diurnal variability of the area wide rain rates, the rain rate PDFs, and their effect on the area integral algorithm, rain rate data have been collected from a network of gages located in the area near the Cape Canaveral and Kennedy Space Center, in the period beginning in September 1987. In the preliminary statistical analysis, based on the rain rates derived from the eleven gages, the seasonal diurnal rainfall and network averaged rain rates are determined. The analysis was performed in two steps: determination of the hourly and daily rain accumulations and rain rates; and computation of the fraction of hourly and daily rain rates that exceed a particular threshold, and analysis of the hourly and daily rain rate PDFs for the network. The results indicate that there are diurnal and seasonal variations in the components which determine the network rain rate PDFs.

Kowalewsky, Karen J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Basin-scale estimates of oceanic primary production by remote sensing - The North Atlantic

The monthly averaged CZCS data for 1979 are used to estimate annual primary production at ocean basin scales in the North Atlantic. The principal supplementary data used were 873 vertical profiles of chlorophyll and 248 sets of parameters derived from photosynthesis-light experiments. Four different procedures were tested for calculation of primary production. The spectral model with nonuniform biomass was considered as the benchmark for comparison against the other three models. The less complete models gave results that differed by as much as 50 percent from the benchmark. Vertically uniform models tended to underestimate primary production by about 20 percent compared to the nonuniform models. At horizontal scale, the differences between spectral and nonspectral models were negligible. The linear correlation between biomass and estimated production was poor outside the tropics, suggesting caution against the indiscriminate use of biomass as a proxy variable for primary production.

Platt, Trevor↗
NASA NTRS2003

NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation: A Strategic Overview

In this presentation a strategic overview of modeling and related data analysis and assimilation components of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) are given. Building on the NAME science plan, a strategy is outlined for accelerating progress on the fundamental modeling issues pertaining to NAME science goals. The strategy takes advantage of NAME enhanced observations, and should simultaneously provide model-based guidance to the evolving multi-tiered NAME observing program. The NAME modeling strategy recognizes three distinct, but related, roles that observations play in model development and assessment. These are: (1) to guide model development by providing constraints on model simulations at the process level (e.g. convection, land/atmosphere and ocean/atmosphere interactions); (2) to help assess the veracity of model simulations of the various key NAMS phenomena (e.g. low level jets, land sea breezes, tropical storms), and the linkages to regional and larger-scale climate variability; and (3) to provide initial and boundary conditions, and verification data for model predictions.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2007

Quantifying the Impact of the North American Monsoon and Deep Midlatitude Convection on the Subtropical Lowermost Stratosphere using in Situ Measurements

The chemical composition of the lowermost stratosphere exhibits both spatial and temporal variability depending upon the relative strength of (1) isentropic transport from the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), (2) diabatic descent from the midlatitude and northern midlatitude stratosphere followed by equatorward isentropic transport, and (3) diabatic ascent from the troposphere through convection. In situ measurements made in the lowermost stratosphere over Florida illustrate the additional impact of equatorward flow around the monsoon anticyclone. This flow carries, along with older stratospheric air, the distinct signature of deep midlatitude convection. We use simultaneous in situ measurements of water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), total odd nitrogen (NOy), carbon dioxide (CO2), and carbon monoxide (CO) in the framework of a simple box model to quantify the composition of the air sampled in the lowermost stratosphere during the mission on the basis of tracer mixing ratios ascribed to the source regions for these transport pathways. The results show that in the summer, convection has a significant impact on the composition of air in the lowermost stratosphere, being the dominant source of water vapor up to the 380 K isentrope. The implications of these results extend from the potential for heterogeneous ozone loss resulting from the increased frequency and lifetime of cirrus near the local tropopause, to air with increased water vapor that as part of the equatorward flow associated with the North American monsoon can become part of the general circulation.

Weinstock, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of the Sensitivity of the Amazonian Diurnal Cycle to Convective Intensity in Reanalyses

Model parameterizations of tropical deep convection are unable to reproduce the observed diurnal and spatial variability of convection in the Amazon, which contributes to climatological biases in the water cycle and energy budget. Convective intensity regimes are defined using percentiles of daily minimum 3-hourly averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). This study compares the observed spatial variability of convective diurnal cycle statistics for each regime to MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim (ERA) reanalysis data sets. Composite diurnal cycle statistics are computed for daytime hours (06:00-21:00 local time) in the wet season (December-January-February). MERRA-2 matches observations more closely than ERA for domain averaged composite diurnal statistics-specifically precipitation. However, ERA reproduces mesoscale features of OLR and precipitation phase associated with topography and the propagation of the coastal squall line. Both reanalysis models are shown to underestimate extreme convection.

Itterly, Kyle F.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Attribution of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Ozone Radiative Flux Bias from Satellites

The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave flux over the 9.6-μm ozone band is a fundamental quantity for understanding chemistry-climate coupling. However, observed TOA fluxes are hard to estimate as they exhibit considerable variability in space and time that depend on the distributions of clouds, ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O), air temperature (Ta), and surface temperature (Ts). Benchmarking present day fluxes and quantifying the relative influence of their drivers is the first step for estimating climate feedbacks from ozone radiative forcing and predicting radiative forcing evolution. To that end, we constructed observational instantaneous radiative kernels (IRKs) under clear-sky conditions, representing the sensitivities of the TOA flux in the 9.6-μm ozone band to the vertical distribution of geophysical variables, including O3, H2O, Ta, and Ts based upon the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) measurements. Applying these kernels to present-day simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project as compared to a 2006 reanalysis assimilating satellite observations, we show that the models have large differences in TOA flux, attributable to different geophysical variables. In particular, model simulations continue to diverge from observations in the tropics, as reported in previous studies of the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations. The principal culprits are tropical mid and upper tropospheric ozone followed by tropical lower tropospheric H2O. Five models out of the eight studied here have TOA flux biases exceeding 100 mWm-2 attributable to tropospheric ozone bias. Another set of five models have flux biases over 50 mWm-2 due to H2O. On the other hand, Ta radiative bias is negligible in all models (no more than 30 mWm-2). We found that AM3 and CMAM have the lowest TOA flux biases globally but are a result of cancellation of opposite biases due to difference processes. Overall, the multi-model ensemble mean bias is –133±98 mWm-2, indicating that they are too atmospherically opaque due to trapping too much radiation in the atmosphere by overestimated tropical tropospheric O3 and H2O. Having too much O3 and H2O in the troposphere would have different impacts on the sensitivity of TOA flux to O3 and these competing effects add more uncertainties on the ozone radiative forcing. We find that the inter-model TOA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) difference is well anti-correlated with their ozone band flux bias. This suggests that there is significant radiative compensation in the calculation of model outgoing longwave radiation.

Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) meas↗
NASA NTRS2021

Mapping Global Forest Age from Forest Inventories, Biomass and Climate Data

Forest age can determine the capacity of a forest to uptake carbon from the atmosphere. However, a lack of global diagnostics that reflect the forest stage and associated disturbance regimes hampers the quantification of age-related differences in forest carbon dynamics. This study provides a new global distribution of forest age circa 2010, estimated using a machine learning approach trained with more than 40 000 plots using forest inventory, biomass and climate data. First, an evaluation against the plot-level measurements of forest age reveals that the data-driven method has a relatively good predictive capacity of classifying old-growth vs. non-old-growth (precision = 0.81 and 0.99 for old-growth and non-old-growth, respectively) forests and estimating corresponding forest age estimates (NSE = 0.6 – Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency – and RMSE = 50 years – root-mean-square error). However, there are systematic biases of overestimation in young- and underestimation in old-forest stands, respectively. Globally, we find a large variability in forest age with the old-growth forests in the tropical regions of Amazon and Congo, young forests in China, and intermediate stands in Europe. Furthermore, we find that the regions with high rates of deforestation or forest degradation (e.g. the arc of deforestation in the Amazon) are composed mainly of younger stands. Assessment of forest age in the climate space shows that the old forests are either in cold and dry regions or warm and wet regions, while young–intermediate forests span a large climatic gradient. Finally, comparing the presented forest age estimates with a series of regional products reveals differences rooted in different approaches and different in situ observations and global-scale products. Despite showing robustness in cross-validation results, additional methodological insights on further developments should as much as possible harmonize data across the different approaches. The forest age dataset presented here provides additional insights into the global distribution of forest age to better understand the global dynamics in the forest water and carbon cycles. The forest age datasets are openly available at https://doi.org/10.17871/ForestAgeBGI.2021 (Besnard et al., 2021).

Simon Besnard↗
NASA NTRS2022

Indian Ocean warming as key driver of long-term positive trend of Arctic Oscillation

Arctic oscillation (AO), which is the most dominant atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the boreal winter, significantly affects the weather and climate at mid-to-high latitudes in the NH. Although a climate community has focused on a negative trend of AO in recent decades, the significant positive trend of AO over the last 60 years has not yet been thoroughly discussed. By analyzing reanalysis and Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) datasets with novel pacemaker experiments, we found that sea surface temperature warming in the Indian Ocean is conducive to the positive trend of AO from the late 1950s. The momentum flux convergence by stationary waves due to the Indian Ocean warming plays an important role in the positive trend of AO, which is characterized by a poleward shift of zonal-mean zonal winds. In addition, the reduced upward propagating wave activity flux over the North Pacific due to Indian Ocean warming also plays a role to strengthen the polar vortex, subsequently, it contributes to the positive trend of AO. Our results imply that the respective warming trend of tropical ocean basins including Indian Ocean, which is either anthropogenic forcing or natural variability or their combined effect, should be considered to correctly project the future AO’s trend.

Indian Ocean↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)

Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics and the accompanying latent heat release, NASA for the U.S. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of an Earth Probe satellite to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated heating. Primary mission goals are 1) the understanding of crucial links in climate variability by the hydrological cycle, 2) improvement in the large-scale models of weather and climate 3) improvement in understanding cloud ensembles and their impacts on larger scale circulations. The linkage with the tropical oceans and landmasses are also emphasized. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched in November 1997 with fuel enough to obtain a four to five year data set of rainfall over the global tropics from 37 N to 37 S. This paper reports progress from launch date through the spring of 1999. The data system and its products and their access is described, as are the algorithms used to obtain the data. Some exciting early results from TRMM are described. Some important algorithm improvements are shown. These will be used in the first total data reprocessing, scheduled to be complete in early 2000. The reader is given information on how to access and use the data.

Simpson, Joanne↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Progress Report

Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics and the accompanying latent heat release, NASA for the U.S. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of an Earth Probe satellite to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated heating. Primary mission goals are 1) the understanding of crucial links in climate variability by the hydrological cycle, 2) improvement in the large-scale models of weather and climate 3) Improvement in understanding cloud ensembles and their impacts on larger scale circulations. The linkage with the tropical oceans and landmasses are also emphasized. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched in November 1997 with fuel enough to obtain a four to five year data set of rainfall over the global tropics from 37'N to 37'S. This paper reports progress from launch date through the spring of 1999. The data system and its products and their access is described, as are the algorithms used to obtain the data. Some exciting early results from TRMM are described. Some important algorithm improvements are shown. These will be used in the first total data reprocessing, scheduled to be complete in early 2000. The reader is given information on how to access and use the data.

Simpson, Joanne↗
NASA NTRS2021

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast – Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosols, gases, and wet deposition.Seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration with maxima (minima) along the coast in winter (summer), suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. Compared with satellite cloud retrievals, four climate models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

David Painemal↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)

Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics and the accompanying latent heat release, NASA for the U.S. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of an Earth Probe satellite to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated heating. Primary mission goals are: 1) the understanding of crucial links in climate variability by the hydrological cycle, 2) improvement in the large-scale models of weather and climate, and 3) improvement in understanding cloud ensembles and their impacts on larger scale circulations. The linkage with the tropical oceans and landmasses are also emphasized. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched in November 1997 with fuel enough to obtain a four to five year data set of rainfall over the global tropics from 37 deg N to 37 deg S. This paper reports progress from launch date through the spring of 1999. The data system and its products and their access is described, as are the algorithms used to obtain the data. Some exciting early results from TRMM are described. Some important algorithm improvements are shown. These will be used in the first total data reprocessing, scheduled to be complete in early 2000. The reader is given information on how to access and use the data.

Simpson, Joanne↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recent Trends in Transport of Surface Carbonaceous Aerosols to the Upper-Troposphere-Lower-Stratosphere Linked to Expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone

Using Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) re-analyses, we have examined recent trends (2000–2019) in transport of surface carbonaceous aerosols (CAs), that is, organic carbon and black carbon, to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). We find a significant increased concentration of UTLS CA, linked to a linear trend in an expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA). Over core monsoon latitudes (25°–35°N), the trends in UTLS CA are enabled by increased upward transport from surface sources via an intensified monsoon meridional circulation, with increased latent heating over the southern Tibetan Plateau and foothill regions, enhanced by feedback processes associated with radiative heating by UTLS CA. In the extra-tropics, increased UTLS CA stems primarily from an extended source of increased wildfire emissions over eastern Siberia and northern Asia, coincident with a large-scale anomalous anticyclone with enhanced surface warming and drying near (80°–120°E, 55°–70°N). Here, CAs are transported upward from the surface to the ULS, likely by increased pyro-convection associated with enhanced wildfires, and enter the tropical UTLS via increased equatorward transport on the eastern flanks of anomalous upper-level anticyclones, coupled to the expanded ASMA. Overall, the increasing UTLS CA trends associated with expansion of the ASMA are consistent with a hydrostatic expansion of a warming troposphere, reflected in a rise in the tropical tropopause and consequential dynamical adjustments of the ASM subtropical jetstream, modulating the climate of the greater ASM region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast—Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a wide range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosol, gas, and wet deposition. Seasonal changes in the circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration along the coast in winter, and minima in summer, suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. The performance of four climate models are assessed against satellite cloud retrievals. The models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗