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DOE OSTI2024

Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States for the last half-century. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study, we have modeled the intensities of 620 historical TC events in the North Atlantic Basin using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep learning intensity model. By applying a thermodynamic warming signal extrapolated from Global Climate Models, we rerun historical events under eight different future climate scenarios, providing a spectrum of potential TC intensity outcomes. One of the future simulations indicates a staggering 43% increase in the number of major hurricanes, underscoring the critical impact of climate change on TC intensity. Additionally, an interactive dashboard has been created to enable users to explore individual storm simulations and understand the influence of future climate signals on environmental conditions of TC development and resulting TC intensities. This dataset and the user-friendly tool offer invaluable resources for systematic exploration of the discrete effects that changes in the air-sea thermodynamic state have on the intensities of TCs.

Climate Change↗

NASA NTRS1988

Mars orbital tethered sample return: The feasibility and uses of obtaining entrained particulates from the atmosphere

By employing technology developed for the Tethered Satellite Program, it appears feasible to obtain Martian dust samples from the atmosphere using an orbiting spacecraft. If collected during an annual dust storm, such a sample would contain a global selection of windborne materials. Atmospheric dust sampling is of importance to the study of Martian surface geochemistry, soil mechanics, atmospheric dynamics, and atmospheric and radiative transfer. Tethered sample return offers two key advantages over a lander sample return: relative simplicity and low spacecraft weight. In another vein, the collection of atmospheric dust by a lander sample return mission is itself of scientific merit. By employing a mast and collection plate aboard a lander mission, it is possible to obtain dust from distant locations transported as entrained material in the local aeolian environment.

Stern, S. A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tracking precipitation features and associated large-scale environments over southeastern Texas

Abstract. Deep convection initiated under different large-scale environmental conditions exhibits different precipitation features and interacts with local meteorology and surface properties in distinct ways. Here, we analyze the characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of different types of convective systems over southeastern Texas using 13 years of high-resolution observations and reanalysis data. We find that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute significantly to both mean and extreme precipitation in all seasons, while isolated deep convection (IDC) plays a role in intense precipitation during summer and fall. Using self-organizing maps (SOMs), we found that convection can occur under unfavorable conditions without large-scale lifting or moisture convergence. In spring, fall, and winter, front-related large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) characterized by low-level moisture convergence act as primary triggers for convection, while the remaining storms are associated with an anticyclonic pattern and orographic lifting. In summer, IDC events are mainly associated with front-related and anticyclonic LSMPs, while MCSs occur more in front-related LSMPs. We further tracked the life cycle of MCS and IDC events using the Flexible Object Tracker algorithm over southeastern Texas. MCSs frequently initiate west of Houston, traveling eastward for around 8 h to southeastern Texas, while IDC events initiate locally. The average duration of MCSs in southeastern Texas is 6.1 h, approximately 4.1 times the duration of IDC events. Diurnally, the initiation of convection associated with favorable LSMPs peaks at 11:00 UTC, 3 h earlier than that associated with anticyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Human exposure to large solar particle events in space

Whenever energetic solar protons produced by solar particle events traverse bulk matter, they undergo various nuclear and atomic collision processes which significantly alter the physical characteristics and biologically important properties of their transported radiation fields. These physical interactions and their effect on the resulting radiation field within matter are described within the context of a recently developed deterministic, coupled neutron-proton space radiation transport computer code (BRYNTRN). Using this computer code, estimates of human exposure in interplanetary space, behind nominal (2 g/sq cm) and storm shelter (20 g/sq cm) thicknesses of aluminum shielding, are made for the large solar proton event of August 1972. Included in these calculations are estimates of cumulative exposures to the skin, ocular lens, and bone marrow as a function of time during the event. Risk assessment in terms of absorbed dose and dose equivalent is discussed for these organs. Also presented are estimates of organ exposures for hypothetical, worst-case flare scenarios. The rate of dose equivalent accumulation places this situation in an interesting region of dose rate between the very low values of usual concern in terrestrial radiation environments and the high-dose-rate values prevalent in radiation therapy.

Townsend, L. W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the Use of Satellite Nightlights for Power Outages Prediction

Hurricanes are a dominant disaster in the Caribbean, always causing serious power outages throughout the islands. Hurricane Maria was a prime example, causing unimaginable destruction of the power infrastructure of Puerto Rico (PR). Consequently, one month after the hurricane landfall, approximately 80% of the population was still without power. After an event of such massive destruction, the electric power restoration process progresses very slowly. This timeline can be improved using power outage (PO) forecast models that help identify the vulnerable places before the hurricane landfall. Generally, these models are trained with historical power outages records, associated data on weather conditions, and additional information about the natural and built environments. However, PO records are often difficult to acquire, and, in many instances, the power utility companies may not record them. This study utilizes a satellite-based Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night light data product as a surrogate for the power delivery to predict hurricane-induced PO in areas having limited to nonexistent historical data records. The processed satellite data is then used along with geographic variables, and simulated weather data to formulate machine learning-based algorithms to predict PO for future hurricane events. These models are applied and validated in the context of the PR catastrophic storm, Hurricane Maria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Analysis of severe storm data

The Mesoscale Analysis and Space Sensor (MASS) Data Management and Analysis System developed by Atsuko Computing International (ACI) on the MASS HP-1000 Computer System within the Systems Dynamics Laboratory of the Marshall Space Flight Center is described. The MASS Data Management and Analysis System was successfully implemented and utilized daily by atmospheric scientists to graphically display and analyze large volumes of conventional and satellite derived meteorological data. The scientists can process interactively various atmospheric data (Sounding, Single Level, Gird, and Image) by utilizing the MASS (AVE80) share common data and user inputs, thereby reducing overhead, optimizing execution time, and thus enhancing user flexibility, useability, and understandability of the total system/software capabilities. In addition ACI installed eight APPLE III graphics/imaging computer terminals in individual scientist offices and integrated them into the MASS HP-1000 Computer System thus providing significant enhancement to the overall research environment.

Hickey, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1987

The synoptic setting and possible energy sources for mesoscale wave disturbances

Published data on 13 cases of mesoscale wave disturbances and their environment were examined to isolate common features for these cases and to determine possible energy sources for the waves. These events are characterized by either a singular wave of depression or wave packets with periods of 1-4 h, horizontal wavelengths of 50-500 km, and surface-pressure perturbation amplitudes of 0.2-7.0 mb. These wave events are shown to be associated with a distinct synoptic pattern (including the existence of a strong inversion in the lower troposphere and the propagation of a jet streak toward a ridge axis in the upper troposphere) while displaying little correlation with the presence of convective storm cells. The observed development of the waves is consistent with the hypothesis that the energy source needed to initiate and sustain the wave disturbances may be related to a geostrophic adjustment process associated with upper-tropospheric jet streaks.

Uccellini, Louis W.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Transforming Community Access to Space Science Models

Researching and forecasting the ever changing space environment (often referred to as space weather) and its influence on humans and their activities are model-intensive disciplines. This is true because the physical processes involved are complex, but, in contrast to terrestrial weather, the supporting observations are typically sparse. Models play a vital role in establishing a physically meaningful context for interpreting limited observations, testing theory, and producing both nowcasts and forecasts. For example, with accurate forecasting of hazardous space weather conditions, spacecraft operators can place sensitive systems in safe modes, and power utilities can protect critical network components from damage caused by large currents induced in transmission lines by geomagnetic storms.

MacNeice, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2014

Adding "Missed" Science to Cassini's Ops Plan

The phenomenal success of the Cassini Mission at Saturn is largely due to flagship instruments, in a target rich environment, for a long period of time, executing almost error free complex mission operations. A smooth transition from cruise operations through the prime science mission and extended science (Equinox) mission culminating in the currently executing Solstice mission has folded in necessary procedural alterations due to improved understanding of the spacecraft, instruments, uplink and planning systems as well as additional science objectives. These have come with the maturation of the mission along with management of workforce reductions. One important set of operational changes has been initiated due to scientific findings highlighting "missed" science opportunities. This is the case for the Titan Meteorology Campaigns and Saturn Storm Watch Campaigns. These observations involve long term monitoring of the atmospheres of Titan and Saturn while the spacecraft and science teams are focused on other high priority targets of opportunity (like Enceladus). Our objective in this paper is to emphasize how a non-invasive strategy to get additional remarkable science was conceived and implemented in a mission with an already well defined operational plan. To illustrate this we will detail Titan Meteorology Campaign and Saturn Storm Watch Campaign integration and implementation strategies as well as the scientific goals and achievements of both.

Roy, Mou↗

NASA NTRS2014

Adding "Missed" Science to Cassini's Ops Plan

Roy, Mou↗

NASA NTRS2014

Oceanic Storm Characteristics off the Kennedy Space Center Coast

Natural cloud-to-ground lightning may behave differently depending on the characteristics of the attachment mediums, including the peak current (inferred from radiation fields) and the number of ground strike locations per flash. Existing literature has raised questions over the years on these characteristics of lightning over oceans, and the behaviors are not yet well understood. To investigate this we will obtain identical electric field observations over adjacent land and ocean regions during both clear air and thunderstorm periods. Oceanic observations will be obtained using a 3-meter NOAA buoy that has been instrumented with a Campbell Scientific electric field mill and New Mexico Techs slow antenna, to measure the electric fields aloft. We are currently obtaining measurements from this system on-shore at the Florida coast, to calibrate and better understand the behavior of the system in elevated-field environments. Sometime during winter 2013, this system will be moored 20NM off the coast of the Kennedy Space Center. Measurements from this system will be compared to the existing on-shore electric field mill suite of 31 sensors and a coastal slow antenna. Supporting observations will be provided by New Mexico Techs Lightning Mapping Array, the Eastern Range Cloud to Ground Lightning Surveillance System, and the National Lightning Detection Network. An existing network of high-speed cameras will be used to capture cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over the terrain regions to identify a valid data set for analysis. This on-going project will demonstrate the value of off-shore electric field measurements for safety-related decision making at KSC, and may improve our understanding of relative lightning risk to objects on the ground vs. ocean. This presentation will provide an overview of this new instrumentation, and a summary of our progress to date.

Ocean↗

NASA NTRS2001

Seasonal variations of snow depth on Mars

Using topography collected over one martian year from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft, we have measured temporal changes in the elevation of the martian surface that correlate with the seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide exchange between the surface and atmosphere. The greatest elevation change (1.5 to 2 meters) occurs at high latitudes ( above 80 degrees ), whereas the bulk of the mass exchange occurs at lower latitudes (below 75 degrees N and below 73 degrees S). An unexpected period of sublimation was observed during northern hemisphere autumn, coincident with dust storms in the southern hemisphere. Analysis of MGS Doppler tracking residuals revealed temporal variations in the flattening of Mars that correlate with elevation changes. The combined changes in gravity and elevation constrain the average density of seasonally deposited carbon dioxide to be 910 +/- 230 kilograms per cubic meter, which is considerably denser than terrestrial snow.

Carbon Dioxide↗

NASA NTRS1998

Results from the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer

The Thermal Emission Spectrometer spectra of low albedo surface materials suggests that a four to one mixture of pyroxene to plagioclase, together with about a 35 percent dust component provides the best fit to the spectrum. Qualitative upper limits can be placed on the concentration of carbonates (<10 percent), olivine (<10 percent), clay minerals (<20 percent), and quartz (<5 percent) in the limited regions observed. Limb observations in the northern hemisphere reveal low-lying dust hazes and detached water-ice clouds at altitudes up to 55 kilometers. At an aerocentric longitude of 224 degrees a major dust storm developed in the Noachis Terra region. The south polar cap retreat was similar to that observed by Viking.

unmanned↗

DOE OSTI2020

FY2020 Fourth Quarter Performance Metric: Evaluate Improvement in Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems from New Parameterization Developments in E3SM

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) consist of an assembly of cumulonimbus clouds on scales of 100 km or more and produce mesoscale circulations (Houze, 2004, 2018). As the largest form of deep convective storms, MCSs contribute to 30% – 70% of annual and warm season rainfall in the U.S. and in the global tropics (Houze 2018; Stevenson & Schumacher, 2014; Feng et al., 2019; Haberlie & Ashley, 2019). Since MCSs contribute importantly to mean and extreme precipitation in the U.S. and many other regions around the world, understanding how well they are simulated by E3SM may guide future development towards more skillful modeling of convective storms and associated hydrologic impacts. The FY2020 Second Quarter Performance Metric Report documented comparisons of MCSs in the central and eastern U.S. in a high-resolution simulation produced by E3SM v1 at 25 km resolution (Caldwell et al. 2019) with observations. MCSs in the simulation occur less frequently and produce less intense precipitation, resulting in large underestimation of MCS volumetric rain-rate compared to observations. The first and third quarter performance metric report indicated that these model biases in simulating MCSs can be attributed to model limitations in parameterizing convection, clouds, and other related processes, as well as model biases in simulating the MCS large-scale environment. In the current FY2020 Fourth Quarter Performance Metric Report, we evaluate MCSs simulated in E3SM with several new developments in convection parameterizations that are being developed for its next generation. The goal is to summarize what have been improved with the new developments and highlight what need more work in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Applications of Electrified Dust and Dust Devil Electrodynamics to Martian Atmospheric Electricity

Atmospheric transport and suspension of dust frequently brings electrification, which may be substantial. Electric fields of 10 kV m(exp. -1) to 100 kV m(exp. -1) have been observed at the surface beneath suspended dust in the terrestrial atmosphere, and some electrification has been observed to persist in dust at levels to 5 km, as well as in volcanic plumes. The interaction between individual particles which causes the electrification is incompletely understood, and multiple processes are thought to be acting. A variation in particle charge with particle size, and the effect of gravitational separation explains to, some extent, the charge structures observed in terrestrial dust storms. More extensive flow-based modelling demonstrates that bulk electric fields in excess of 10 kV m(exp. -1) can be obtained rapidly (in less than 10 s) from rotating dust systems (dust devils) and that terrestrial breakdown fields can be obtained. Modelled profiles of electrical conductivity in the Martian atmosphere suggest the possibility of dust electrification, and dust devils have been suggested as a mechanism of charge separation able to maintain current flow between one region of the atmosphere and another, through a global circuit. Fundamental new understanding of Martian atmospheric electricity will result from the ExoMars mission, which carries the DREAMS (Dust characterization, Risk Assessment, and Environment Analyser on the Martian Surface) MicroARES (Atmospheric Radiation and Electricity Sensor) Instrumentation to Mars in 2016 for the first in situ electrical measurements.

Lighting Discharge↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Annual Environmental Report 2019

The purposes of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Environmental Report 2019 are to record LLNL's compliance with environmental standards and requirements, describe LLNL’s environmental protection and remediation programs, and present the results of environmental monitoring at the two LLNL sites—the Livermore Site and Site 300. The report is prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by LLNL’s Environmental Functional Area. Submittal of the report satisfies requirements under DOE Order 231.1B, “Environment, Safety and Health Reporting,” and DOE Order 458.1, “Radiation Protection of the Public and Environment.” The report begins with an executive summary, which provides the purpose of the report and an overview of LLNL’s compliance and monitoring results. The first three chapters provide background information: Chapter 1 is an overview of the location, meteorology, and hydrogeology of the two LLNL sites; Chapter 2 is a summary of LLNL’s compliance with environmental regulations; and Chapter 3 is a description of LLNL’s environmental programs with an emphasis on the Environmental Management System including pollution prevention. The majority of the report covers LLNL’s environmental monitoring programs and monitoring data for 2019: effluent and ambient air monitoring and dose assessment (Chapter 4); waters, including wastewater, storm water runoff, surface water, rain, and groundwater (Chapter 5); and terrestrial, including soil, sediment, vegetation, foodstuff, ambient radiation, and special status wildlife and plants (Chapter 6). The remaining two chapters discuss LLNL’s groundwater remediation program (Chapter 7), and quality assurance for the environmental monitoring programs (Chapter 8). Complete monitoring data, which are summarized in the body of the report, are provided in Appendix A.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1977

Measurements of Cumulonimbus Clouds using quantitative satellite and radar data

Results are reported for a preliminary study of SMS-2 digital brightness and IR data obtained at frequent 5-7.5 min intervals. The clouds studied were over the Central and Great Plains in midlatitudes and thus were typical of an environment much different from that of the tropical oceans. The satellite data are compared to radar data for both a severe weather event and weak thundershower activity of the type which might be a target for weather modification efforts. The relative importance of short time interval satellite data is shown for both cases, and possible relationships between the two types of data are presented. It is concluded that (1) using a threshold technique for visible reflected brightness, precipitating vs. nonprecipitating clouds can be discriminated; (2) brightness is well related to cloud size and shape; and (3) satellite-derived growth rates may be a significant parameter to be used in determining storm severity, especially if rapid time sequence data are used during the development phase of the storm.

Negri, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Southern California Perspective of the April, 1998 Trans-Pacific Asian Dust Event

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) coherent CO2 backscatter lidar has been in almost continuous operation since 1984 and has now accumulated a significant time-series database tracking the long-term and seasonal variability of backscatter from the atmospheric column above the Pasadena, Calif. locale. A particularly noteworthy episode observed by the lidar in 1998 was a particularly extreme instance of incursion by Asian-sourced dust during the closing days of April. Such events are not uncommon during the northern spring, when strong cold fronts and convection over the Asian interior deserts loft crustal material into the mid-troposphere whence it can be transported across the Pacific Ocean, occasionally reaching the continental US. However, the abnormal strength of the initiating storm in this case generated an atypically dense cloud of material which resulted in dramatically reduced visibility along the length of the Western Seaboard. These dust events are now recognized as a potentially significant, non-negligible radiative forcing influence. The progress of the April 1998 dust cloud eastward across the Pacific Ocean was initially observed in satellite imagery and transmitted to the broader atmospheric research community via electronic communications. The use of Internet technology in this way was effective in facilitating a rapid response correlative measurement exercise by numerous atmospheric observation stations throughout the western US and its success has resulted in the subsequent establishment of an ad hoc communications environment, data exchange medium, and mechanism for providing early-warning alert of other significant atmospheric phenomena in the future.

Tratt, David M.↗