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This report is part of a series describing different ResStock (TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Propane Fuel 95% AFUE and Fuel Oil Furnace 88% AFUE" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO2 concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.
We report the results of three high dynamic range, high-resolution radio observations with the Very Large Array (VLA), US Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) Network, and partially completed Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) on the peculiar BL Lacertae objects PKS 1413+135. The VLA observations (resolution approximately 1.5 sec) reveal that PKS 1413+135 has no kiloparsec-scale extended structure to a dynamic range limit of 10,000:1. However, its milliarcsecond-scale structure appears to be a triple (i.e., a core, jet plus 'counterjet') at both 3.6 and 18 cm, a unique structure among BL Lac objects but similar to a recently discovered class of VLBI 'mini-triples.' The presence of a counterjet at fluxes comparable to the main jet is incompatible with the standard relativistically beamed jet model for BL Lac objects and with the high value of core dominance exhibited by this source at arcsec resolution. This suggests a nonstandard interpretation in which the radio source lies far in the background of the spiral galaxy it is projected upon so that its VLBI structure may be affected by gravitational lensing. At 18 cm, the core is much weaker than at 3.6 cm suggesting free-free absorption by the high-column-density gas found along this sightline by previous infrared(IR)/optical, X-ray and redshifted H I 21 cm observations. We discuss the roles that free-free absorption and gravitational lensing may have for PKS 1413+135 and other GHz-peaked spectrum radio sources.
This report is part of a series describing different ResStock (TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Natural Gas Furnace 95% AFUE" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.
Abstract Data capturing multiple axes of tree size and shape, such as a tree's stem diameter, height and crown size, underpin a wide range of ecological research—from developing and testing theory on forest structure and dynamics, to estimating forest carbon stocks and their uncertainties, and integrating remote sensing imagery into forest monitoring programmes. However, these data can be surprisingly hard to come by, particularly for certain regions of the world and for specific taxonomic groups, posing a real barrier to progress in these fields. To overcome this challenge, we developed the Tallo database, a collection of 498,838 georeferenced and taxonomically standardized records of individual trees for which stem diameter, height and/or crown radius have been measured. These data were collected at 61,856 globally distributed sites, spanning all major forested and non‐forested biomes. The majority of trees in the database are identified to species (88%), and collectively Tallo includes data for 5163 species distributed across 1453 genera and 187 plant families. The database is publicly archived under a CC‐BY 4.0 licence and can be access from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6637599 . To demonstrate its value, here we present three case studies that highlight how the Tallo database can be used to address a range of theoretical and applied questions in ecology—from testing the predictions of metabolic scaling theory, to exploring the limits of tree allometric plasticity along environmental gradients and modelling global variation in maximum attainable tree height. In doing so, we provide a key resource for field ecologists, remote sensing researchers and the modelling community working together to better understand the role that trees play in regulating the terrestrial carbon cycle.
This presentation studies the rating lives of wind turbine main bearings, as determined by the IEC 61400-1 and ISO 281 standards. A brief review of relevant bearing life theory and turbine design requirements is provided. This includes a discussion on possible shortcomings, including the existence (or not) of the bearing fatigue load limit and the validity of assuming linear damage accumulation. A detailed study is then undertaken to determine rating lives for two models of main bearing in a 1.5 MW wind turbine. Rating life assessment is carried out under different conditions, including various combinations of main bearing temperature, wind field characteristics, lubricant viscosity and contamination levels. Rating lives are found to be sufficiently above the desired 20 year design life for both bearing models under expected operating conditions. For the larger bearing, operational loads are shown to be below or close to the bearing fatigue load limit a vast majority of the time. Key sensitivities for rating life values are shown to be the temperature and contamination. Overall, the results of this study suggest that rating life assessment does not account for reported rates of main bearing failures in 1 to 3 MW wind turbines. In future work, it is recommended that efforts be undertaken to identify principal root causes of main bearing failures, possibly leading to a new application standard specific to this component. It is also recommended that impacts of partial wake impingement on main bearing rating lives are investigated.
Electrification of on-site fossil fuel combustion in buildings is recognized as a key component of achieving global greenhouse gas emissions targets. Air-source heat pumps are an efficient approach for space heating electrification. However, a major barrier to heat pump adoption is the high installation cost relative to furnaces and air conditioners. Because the installation cost of heat pumps - especially cold climate models - is dependent on their size, it is important to understand the distribution of heat pump sizes using different sizing methods and factors that impact heat pump sizing. In this study, we use sub-hourly physics simulations of 550,000 statistically representative dwelling units to analyze the distribution of heat pump size in the U.S. for three different efficiency levels of heat pumps, with and without building insulation and air sealing upgrades. We will present results from the national analysis of different factors affecting heat pump sizing along with the impact of sizing decisions on upgrade costs and operating costs.
Improved remote sensing observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are critically needed to quantify, monitor, and understand the Earth's carbon cycle and its evolution in a changing climate. The processes governing ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake remain poorly understood,especially in dynamic regions with large carbon stocks and strong vulnerability to climate change,for example, the tropical land biosphere, the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and the Southern Ocean. Because the passive spectrometers used by GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) and OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) require sunlit and cloud-free conditions,current observations over these regions remain infrequent and are subject to biases. These short comings limit our ability to understand and predict the processes controlling the carbon cycle on regional to global scales.In contrast, active CO2 remote-sensing techniques allow accurate measurements to be taken day and night, over ocean and land surfaces, in the presence of thin or scattered clouds, and at all times of year. Because of these benefits, the National Research Council recommended the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights,Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission in the 2007 report Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond. The ability of ASCENDS to collect low-bias observations in these key regions is expected to address important gaps in our knowledge of the contemporary carbon cycle.The ASCENDS ad hoc Science Definition Team (SDT), comprised of carbon cycle modeling and active remote sensing instrument teams throughout the United States (US), worked to develop the mission's requirements and advance its readiness from 2008 through 2018. Numerous scientific investigations were carried out to identify the benefit and feasibility of active CO2 remote sensing measurements for improving our understanding of CO2 sources and sinks. This report summarizes their findings and recommendations based on mission modeling studies, analysis of ancillary meteorological data products, development and demonstration of candidate technologies, anddesign studies of the ASCENDS mission concept.
This report is part of a series describing different ResStock (TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Reference Space Heating and Air Conditioning Upgrade Circa 2025" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.
Abstract This paper studies the rating lives of wind turbine main bearings, as determined by the IEC 61400‐1 and ISO 281 standards. A critical review of relevant bearing life theory and turbine design requirements is provided, including discussion on possible shortcomings such as the existence (or not) of the bearing fatigue load limit and the validity of assuming linear damage accumulation. A detailed exploratory case study is then undertaken to determine rating lives for two models of main bearing in a 1.5 MW wind turbine. Rating life assessment is carried out under different conditions, including various combinations of main bearing temperature, wind field characteristics, lubricant viscosity, and contamination levels. Rating lives are found to be sufficiently above the desired 20‐year design life for both bearing models under expected operating conditions. For the larger bearing, operational loads are shown to be below or close to the bearing fatigue load limit a vast majority of the time. Key sensitivities for rating life values are temperature and contamination. Overall, the results of this study suggest that an ISO 281 rating life assessment does not account for reported rates of main bearing failures in 1 to 3 MW wind turbines. It is recommended that a similar analysis be undertaken for ISO/TS 16281 rating lives, along with further efforts to identify principal root causes of main bearing failures in future work, possibly leading to a new application standard specific to this component. It is also recommended that the impacts of partial wake impingement on main bearing rating lives are investigated.
The accurate simulation of complex biochemical phenomena has historically been hampered by the computational requirements of high-fidelity molecular-modeling techniques. Quantum mechanical methods, such as ab initio wave-function (WF) theory, deliver the desired accuracy, but have impractical scaling for modeling biosystems with thousands of atoms. Combining molecular fragmentation with MP2 perturbation theory, this study presents an innovative approach that enables biomolecular-scale ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations at WF theory level. Leveraging the resolution-of-the-identity approximation for Hartree-Fock and MP2 gradients, our approach eliminates computationally intensive four-center integrals and their gradients, while achieving near-peak performance on modern GPU architectures. The introduction of asynchronous time steps minimizes time step latency, overlapping computational phases and effectively mitigating load imbalances. Utilizing up to 9,400 nodes of Frontier and achieving 59% (1006.7 PFLOP/s) of its double-precision floating-point peak, our method enables us to break the million-electron and 1EFLOP/s barriers for AIMD simulations with quantum accuracy.
Thrust vector control (TVC) systems for rocket engine propulsion traditionally use a simple linear relationship to convert between actuator forces and torques about the engine gimbal’s center-of-rotation (COR). As shown in Equation (1), the torque about the gimbal COR is proportional to the applied actuator force and the TVC moment arm (MA)—the perpendicular distance between the TVC actuator’s line-of-action (LOA) and the engine gimbal’s COR. While this fundamental relationship remains valid and accurate in a two-dimensional (2D), one-degree-of-freedom (1-DOF) context—particularly in its non-linear formulation as described in the ER63 Technical Bulletin TB-02 (Derivation of Thrust Vector Control (TVC) Engine-Gimbal / Actuator Moment-Arm Geometry)—it becomes limited when extended to three-dimensional (3D), two-degree-of-freedom (2-DOF) analyses. In 3D, out-of-plane angular displacements can arise, causing the gimbaled engine plane-of-motion to become non-coplanar with the respective actuator plane-of-motion. Such misalignments occur due to the rod-end (RE) and/or tail-stock (TE) mounting geometry of individual TVC actuators. These geometric complexities lead to inaccuracies in calculating engine torques and corresponding actuator forces if only the traditional TVC MA relationship is employed. For higher gimbal angular displacements (e.g., greater than 5 degrees), these inaccuracies become more pronounced, necessitating a more robust mathematical framework. This document presents a comprehensive 3D (2-DOF) derivation of a transformation matrix that accurately converts between gimbaled engine torques and TVC actuator forces. By incorporating the necessary geometric and rotational considerations, this new approach corrects the limitations of the traditional TVC MA method. Subsequent sections compare the newly formulated approach to the traditional method, demonstrating its enhanced accuracy and reliability for a broad range of gimbaled engine conditions.
The short-circuit current reduction in GaAs shallow junction heteroface solar cells was calculated according to a simplified solar cell damage model in which the nonuniformity of the damage as a function of penetration depth is treated explicitly. Although the equivalent electron fluence was not uniquely defined for low-energy monoenergetic proton exposure, an equivalent electron fluence is found for proton spectra characteristic of the space environment. The equivalent electron fluence ratio was calculated for a typical large solar flare event for which the proton spectrum is PHI(sub p)(E) = A/E(p/sq. cm) where E is in MeV. The equivalent fluence ratio is a function of the cover glass shield thickness or the corresponding cutoff energy E(sub c). In terms of the cutoff energy, the equivalent 1 MeV electron fluence ratio is r(sub p)(E sub c) = 10(9)/E(sub c)(1.8) where E(sub c) is in units of KeV.
Demand side energy flexibility is increasingly being viewed as an essential enabler for the swift transition to a low-carbon energy system that displaces conventional fossil fuels with renewable energy sources while maintaining, if not improving, the operation of the energy system. Building energy flexibility may address several challenges facing energy systems and electricity consumers as society transitions to a low-carbon energy system characterized by distributed and intermittent energy resources. For example, by changing the timing and amount of building energy consumption through advanced building technologies, electricity demand and supply balance can be improved to enable greater integration of variable renewable energy. Although the benefits of utilizing energy flexibility from the built environment are generally recognized, solutions that reflect diversity in building stocks, customer behavior, and market rules and regulations need to be developed for successful implementation. In this paper, we pose and answer ten questions covering technological, social, commercial, and regulatory aspects to enable the utilization of energy flexibility of buildings in practice. In particular, we provide a critical overview of techniques and methods for quantifying and harnessing energy flexibility. We discuss the concepts of resilience and multi-carrier energy systems and their relation to energy flexibility. We argue the importance of balancing stakeholder engagement and technology deployment. Finally, we highlight the crucial roles of standardization, regulation, and policy in advancing the deployment of energy flexible buildings.
CaFe 2 O 4 is an $\textit{S}$ = 5/2 antiferromagnet exhibiting two magnetic orders that shows regions of coexistence at some temperatures. Using a Green’s function formalism, we model neutron scattering data of the spin wave excitations in this material, elucidating the microscopic spin Hamiltonian. In doing so, we suggest that the low-temperature A phase order (↑↑↓↓) finds its origins in the freezing of antiphase boundaries created by thermal fluctuations in a parent B phase order (↑↓↑↓). In this work, the low-temperature magnetic order observed in CaFe 2 O 4 is thus the result of a competition between the exchange coupling along $\textit{c}$, which favors the B phase, and the single-ion anisotropy, which stabilizes thermally generated antiphase boundaries, leading to static metastable A phase order at low temperatures.
How, where, and why carbon (C) moves into and out of an ecosystem through time are long-standing questions in biogeochemistry. Here, we bring together hundreds of thousands of C-cycle observations at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts, USA, a mid-latitude landscape dominated by 80–120-yr-old closed-canopy forests. These data answered four questions: (1) where and how much C is presently stored in dominant forest types; (2) what are current rates of C accrual and loss; (3) what biotic and abiotic factors contribute to variability in these rates; and (4) how has climate change affected the forest’s C cycle? Harvard Forest is an active C sink resulting from forest regrowth following land abandonment. Soil and tree biomass comprise nearly equal portions of existing C stocks. Net primary production (NPP) averaged 680–750 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 ; belowground NPP contributed 38–47% of the total, but with large uncertainty. Mineral soil C measured in the same inventory plots in 1992 and 2013 was too heterogeneous to detect change in soil-C pools; however, radiocarbon data suggest a small but persistent sink of 10–30 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 . Net ecosystem production (NEP) in hardwood stands averaged ~300 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 . NEP in hemlock-dominated forests averaged ~450 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 until infestation by the hemlock woolly adelgid turned these stands into a net C source. Since 2000, NPP has increased by 26%. For the period 1992–2015, NEP increased 93%. The increase in mean annual temperature and growing season length alone accounted for ~30% of the increase in productivity. Interannual variations in GPP and NEP were also correlated with increases in red oak biomass, forest leaf area, and canopy-scale light-use efficiency. Compared to long-term global change experiments at the Harvard Forest, the C sink in regrowing biomass equaled or exceeded C cycle modifications imposed by soil warming, N saturation, and hemlock removal. Furthermore, the results of this synthesis and comparison to simulation models suggest that forests across the region are likely to accrue C for decades to come but may be disrupted if the frequency or severity of biotic and abiotic disturbances increases.
Microbes are responsible for cycling carbon (C) through soils, and predicted changes in soil C stocks under climate change are highly sensitive to shifts in the mechanisms assumed to control the microbial physiological response to warming. Two mechanisms have been suggested to explain the long-term warming impact on microbial physiology: microbial thermal acclimation and changes in the quantity and quality of substrates available for microbial metabolism. Yet studies disentangling these two mechanisms are lacking. To resolve the drivers of changes in microbial physiology in response to long-term warming, we sampled soils from 13- and 28-year-old soil warming experiments in different seasons. We performed short-term laboratory incubations across a range of temperatures to measure the relationships between temperature sensitivity of physiology (growth, respiration, carbon use efficiency, and extracellular enzyme activity) and the chemical composition of soil organic matter. We observed apparent thermal acclimation of microbial respiration, but only in summer, when warming had exacerbated the seasonally-induced, already small dissolved organic matter pools. Irrespective of warming, greater quantity and quality of soil carbon increased the extracellular enzymatic pool and its temperature sensitivity. We propose that fresh litter input into the system seasonally cancels apparent thermal acclimation of C-cycling processes to decadal warming. Our findings reveal that long-term warming has indirectly affected microbial physiology via reduced C availability in this system, implying that earth system models including these negative feedbacks may be best suited to describe long-term warming effects on these soils.
An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.