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Acceleration of high energy electrons by means of Parker-Wentzel version of Fermi mechanism due to geometry and distorted structure of interplanetary magnetic field near magnetopause in transition region
The Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) and associated westerly wind (WW) events account for much of the tropical intraseasonal variability (TISV). The TISV has been suggested as an important stochastic forcing that may be one of the underlying causes for the observed irregularities of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Recent observational studies and theories of interannual to interdecadal-scale variability suggest that ENSO may arise from different mechanisms depending on the basic states. The Pacific warming event of 1997, being associated with a period of strong MJO and WW events, serves as a natural experiment for studying the possible role of TISV in triggering an ENSO event. We have performed a combined statistical and composite analysis of surface WW events based on the assimilated surface wind and sea level pressure for the period of 1980-1993, the SSM/I wind for the period of 1988-1997, and OLR. Results indicates that extratropical forcing contribute significantly to the evolution of MJO and establishment of WW events over the Pacific warm pool. Following the major WW events, there appeared an eastward extension of equatorial warm SST anomalies from the western Pacific warm pool. Such tropical-extratropical interaction is particularly clear in the winter of 96-97 that leads to the recent warming event in 1997/98. From the above discussion, our current study on this subject is based on the hypothesis that 1) there is an enhanced air-sea interaction associated with TISV and the northerly surges from the extratropics in the initial phase of the 97/98 warming event, and 2) the relevant mechanisms are functions of the basic state of the coupled system (in terms of SST distribution and atmospheric mean circulation) that varies at the interannual and interdecadal time scale. We are analyzing the space-time structure of the northerly surges, their association with air-sea fluxes and upper ocean responses during the period of September 1996 to June 1997. The estimate of daily values of latent heat fluxes is based on NSCAT wind, SST, and ECMWF surface air temperature and SSM/I water vapor data (Chou et al. 1997). To understand the relevant mechanisms, we will analyze the origin of the northerly surges in terms of atmospheric instability associated with the extratropical circulation, and the mutual influence between the tropical heating and the extratropical circulation. In this meeting, we will report the analysis addressing the first part of the above hypothesis.
Work is reviewed wherein the design of active structural control is formulated as the mean-square optimal control of a linear mechanical system with stochastic parameters. In practice, a complete probabilistic description of model parameters can never be provided by empirical determinations, and a suitable design approach must accept very limited a priori data on parameter statistics. In consequence, the mean-square optimization problem is formulated using a complete probability assignment which is made to be consistent with available data but maximally unconstrained otherwise through use of a maximum entropy principle. The ramifications of this approach for both robustness and large dimensionality are illustrated by consideration of the full-state feedback regulation problem.
Definite evidence for particle acceleration in the solar wind came around a decade ago. Two likely sources are known to exist: particles may be accelerated by the turbulence resulting from the superposition of Alfven and Magnetosonic waves (Statistical Acceleration) or they may be accelerated directly at shock fronts formed by the interaction of fast and slow solar wind (CIR's) or by traveling shocks due to sporadic coronal mass ejections. Naurally both mechanisms may be operative. In this work the acceleration problem was tackled numerically using Helios 1 and 2 data to create a realistic representation of the Heliospheric plasma. Two 24 hour samples were used: one where there are only wave like fluctuations of the field (Day 90 Helios 1) and another with a shock present in it (Day 92 of Helios 2) both in 1976 during the STIP 2 interval. Transport coefficients in energy space have been calculated for particles injected in each sample and the effect of the shock studied in detail.
The mechanisms for generating Alfven waves in the magnetosphere are determined, on the basis of a comprehensive survey of satellite magnetometer data. The mechanisms are classified in terms of the physical properties of standing Alfven waves such as the direction of the major axis of polarization, harmonic mode, and the azimuthal wave number. In an analysis of the statistical organization of the pulsations, it is shown that the most common transverse waves seem to be azimuthally polarized waves involving the fundamental and several harmonics, with radially polarized waves excited at the second harmonic. The former are probably driven externally, while the latter are likely to be excited internally through particle-wave interactions.
Basic design concepts for high-performance, monolithic ceramic structural components are addressed. The design of brittle ceramics differs from that of ductile metals because of the inability of ceramic materials to redistribute high local stresses caused by inherent flaws. Random flaw size and orientation requires that a probabilistic analysis be performed in order to determine component reliability. The current trend in probabilistic analysis is to combine linear elastic fracture mechanics concepts with the two parameter Weibull distribution function to predict component reliability under multiaxial stress states. Nondestructive evaluation supports this analytical effort by supplying data during verification testing. It can also help to determine statistical parameters which describe the material strength variation, in particular the material threshold strength (the third Weibull parameter), which in the past was often taken as zero for simplicity.
The 1971 and 1973 Goldstone 12.6-cm radar observations of Mars are separate data sets which include reflectivity as a function of latitude, longitude, and season. It has been argued that secular reflectivity variations of Mars' surface are indicated by the data and that shallow subsurface melting is the causal mechanism most compatible with the observations; however, the melting hypothesis conflicts with accepted notions of the state and distribution of water on Mars. The data are examined to identify temporal and spatial domains within which statistically significant changes in measured reflectivity are clustered. Brines which might satisfy the best supported reflectivity variations are out of equilibrium with the chemical megaenvironment. It is unclear whether such a brine, if emplaced in the Martian regolith at a depth shallow enough to affect the radar reflectivity, could survive even a single freeze-thaw cycle. Some combination of unique scattering properties or some as yet unidentified process other than melting is responsible for any genuine reflectivity variations.
Cosmic X-ray sources are expected to be polarized, either because of their asymmetry and the role of scattering in their emission or the role of magnetic fields. Polarization at other wavelengths has been useful. X-ray polarization will provide a new handle on black hole parameters, in particular the spin, on accretion flows and outflows, on neutron star spin orientations and emission mechanisms, on the quantum mechanical effects of super-strong magnetic fields of magnetars, and on the structure of supernovae shocks. The proposed Gravity and Extreme Magnetism SMEX (GEMS) will use high efficiency polarimeters behind thin foil mirrors. The statistical sensitivity and control of systematics will allow measurement of polarization fractions as small as 1% from many galactic and extragalactic sources. Targets which should be polarized at the level that GEMS can easily measure include stellar black holes, Seyfert galaxies and quasars, blazars, rotation-powered and accretion-powered pulsars, magnetars, shell supernova remnants and pulsar wind nebulae. The polarimeters are Time Projection Chambers that allow reconstruction of images of photoelectron tracks for 2-10 keV Xrays. They can be deep without sacrificing modulation. These polarimeters do not image the sky, but the telescope point spread function and detector collimation allow structure to be resolved at the 10 arcmin level. Rotation of the spacecraft is not needed for the signal measurement in the Time Projection Chambers, but provides for measurement and correction of systematic errors. It also allows a small Bragg reflection soft X-ray experiment to be included that can be used for isolated neutron stars and blazars.
For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.
Planetary entry vehicles employ ablative TPS materials to shield the aeroshell from entry aeroheating environments. To ensure mission success, it must be demonstrated that the heat shield system, including local features such as seams, does not fail at conditions that are suitably margined beyond those expected in flight. Furthermore, its thermal response must be predictable, with acceptable fidelity, by computational tools used in heat shield design. Mission assurance is accomplished through a combination of ground testing and material response modelling. A material's robustness to failure is verified through arcjet testing while its thermal response is predicted by analytical tools that are verified against experimental data. Due to limitations in flight-like ground testing capability and lack of validated high-fidelity computational models, qualification of heat shield materials is often achieved by piecing together evidence from multiple ground tests and analytical simulations, none of which fully bound the flight conditions and vehicle configuration. Extreme heating environments (>2000 W/sq. cm heat flux and >2 atm pressure), experienced during entries at Venus, Saturn and Ice Giants, further stretch the current testing and modelling capabilities for applicable TPS materials. Fully-dense Carbon Phenolic was the material of choice for these applications; however, since heritage raw materials are no longer available, future uses of re-created Carbon Phenolic will require re-qualification. To address this sustainability challenge, NASA is developing a new dual-layer material based on 3D weaving technology called Heat shield for Extreme Entry Environments (HEEET). Regardless of TPS material, extreme environments pose additional certification challenges beyond what has been typical in recent NASA missions. Scope of this presentation: This presentation will give an overview of challenges faced in verifying TPS performance at extreme heating conditions. Examples include: (1) Bounding aeroheating parameters (heat flux, pressure, shear and enthalpy) in ground facilities. How to certify TPS if environments can't be bounded or aeroheating parameters can't be simultaneously achieved. (2) Higher uncertainties in ground test environments (facility calibration and analytical predictions) at extreme conditions. (3) Testing in flows similar to planetary atmosphere composition (H2/He for Gas and Ice Giants). (4) Test sample size limitations for qualifying seam designs. (5) Lack of computational tools capable of simulating all significant aspects of TPS performance (including initiation and propagation of failures). This presentation will provide recommendations on how the EDL community can address these challenges and mitigate some of the risks involved in flying TPS materials at extreme conditions. Examples include: (1) Dedicated activity to understanding TPS failure modes. Develop computational tools capable of modelling fluid interaction with material's thermostructural response. Validate these tools through failure testing. A better understanding of failure mechanisms may eliminate the need to fully bound all aeroheating parameters in ground testing. (2) Enhancements to current testing facilities to simulate flight-like ablation mechanism (ex. testing in Nitrogen at Ames Interaction Heating Facility to limit oxidation in favor of more sublimation). (3) Improved characterization of test conditions with new diagnostic methods and determination of environment uncertainty through rigorous statistical analysis of available data. (4) Design margin policies that are directly tied to uncertainties in ground test environments and modelling fidelity
Spacecraft cabin air quality is of fundamental importance to crew health, with concerns encompassing both gaseous contaminants and airborne particles. Quantification of spacecraft indoor aerosols will increase our understanding of crew exposure and cabin cleanliness. Aerosols on the International Space Station (ISS) have been sampled and brought back to Earth for analysis to characterize the airborne particulate matter in the cabin. Microscopic analyses have been performed to determine morphology and particle size information, and Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) provides information on the chemical elements present in the particles. With the use of IntelliSEM software for computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy (CCSEM), this data provides particle size distribution information and statistics on particle materials. Many of the particles collected were made up of multiple elements and had uncommon morphologies compared to typical indoor aerosols on Earth. These characteristics are thought to be from unique formation mechanisms in the microgravity environment. Several notable particle types are examined further in this work. Bromine-containing particles and cadmium-containing particles are discussed as they constitute a health hazard to crew members. Humans in indoor living and working spaces are typically the single largest particle emission source, and this was observed in the sampled aerosols in ISS as well.
Abrupt increases in the rate of magnetic reversals (magnetic reversal spurts) were first studied by many others. They hypothesized that spurts result from increased turbulence in the earth's core dynamo during episodes of intense bolide bombardment of the earth. Mechanisms for creating episodes of intense bombardment of the earth involve gravitational perturbation of the Oort cloud of comets, either by a hidden planet, a solar companion, or massive matter in the galactic plane. Herein, the time variation in reversal rate is analyzed using methods of statistical density estimation. A smooth, continuous estimate of reversal rate is obtained using an adaptive kernel method, in which the kernel width is adjusted as a function of reversal rate. The estimates near the ends of the data series (at 165 my ago and the present) are obtained by extending the data by reflection. The results show that the reversal spurts are not associated demonstrably with extinctions or well-dated impacts. If the spurts do record episodes of intense bombardment of the earth, then the mass extinctions do not, in general, occur at times of impacts. Furthermore, the large impact craters seen are not obviously related to the spurts, suggesting that the craters may have been caused by bolides of a different nature and with a different temporal pattern. However, the most simple explanation seems to be that the spurts do not record comet showers, either because the recording mechanism suggested by Muller and Morris is not effective or because comet showers are not triggered in the ways considered by Hut et al.
Numerous observations have revealed that power-law distributions are ubiquitous in energetic solar processes. Hard X-rays, soft X-rays, extreme ultraviolet radiation, and radio waves all display power-law frequency distributions. Since magnetic reconnection is the driving mechanism for many energetic solar phenomena, it is likely that reconnection events themselves display such power-law distributions. In this work, we perform numerical simulations of the solar corona driven by simple convective motions at the photospheric level. Using temperature changes, current distributions, and Poynting fluxes as proxies for heating, we demonstrate that energetic events occurring in our simulation display power-law frequency distributions, with slopes in good agreement with observations. We suggest that the braiding-associated reconnection in the corona can be understood in terms of a self-organized criticality model driven by convective rotational motions similar to those observed at the photosphere.
The temperature dependence of the bimolecular reactions of Cl(+), HCl(+), CH(+), CH2(+), N(+), NH(+), and NH2(+) reacting with H2 have been investigated. For Cl(+) and HCl(+) rate constants have been determined over the temperature range of 150 to 400 K. Preliminary data have been obtained for the other systems. The Cl(+)/H2 system shows a weak, but significant positive temperature dependence that could be important in interstellar modeling studies. The HCl(+)/H2 system shows a substantial negative temperature dependence with the rate constant approaching the collision rate at low temperatures. The association reaction CH3(+) + HCN yields CH3 HCN(+) has been theoretically modeled using statistical phase space theory. Both radiative and collisional stabilization have been included. The results are compared with experiment with good agreement obtained over wide variations in T and p. This system is potentially important in the mechanism of large molecule synthesis in interstellar space.
Information theory is used to assess the performance of sensor-array imaging systems, with emphasis on the performance obtained with image-plane signal processing. By electronically controlling the spatial response of the imaging system, as suggested by the mechanism of human vision, it is possible to trade-off edge enhancement for sensitivity, increase dynamic range, and reduce data transmission. Computational results show that: signal information density varies little with large variations in the statistical properties of random radiance fields; most information (generally about 85 to 95 percent) is contained in the signal intensity transitions rather than levels; and performance is optimized when the OTF of the imaging system is nearly limited to the sampling passband to minimize aliasing at the cost of blurring, and the SNR is very high to permit the retrieval of small spatial detail from the extensively blurred signal. Shading the lens aperture transmittance to increase depth of field and using a regular hexagonal sensor-array instead of square lattice to decrease sensitivity to edge orientation also improves the signal information density up to about 30 percent at high SNRs.
The physics of the continuum spectrum of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) was examined using a large data set and rigorous statistical methods. A data base was constructed for 469 objects which include radio selected quasars, optically selected quasars, X-ray selected AGNs, BL Lac objects, and optically unidentified compact radio sources. Each object has measurements of its radio, optical, X-ray core continuum luminosity, though many of them are upper limits. Since many radio sources have extended components, the core component were carefully selected out from the total radio luminosity. With survival analysis statistical methods, which can treat upper limits correctly, these data can yield better statistical results than those previously obtained. A variety of statistical tests are performed, such as the comparison of the luminosity functions in different subsamples, and linear regressions of luminosities in different bands. Interpretation of the results leads to the following tentative conclusions: the main emission mechanism of optically selected quasars and X-ray selected AGNs is thermal, while that of BL Lac objects is synchrotron; radio selected quasars may have two different emission mechanisms in the X-ray band; BL Lac objects appear to be special cases of the radio selected quasars; some compact radio sources show the possibility of synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) in the optical band; and the spectral index between the optical and the X-ray bands depends on the optical luminosity.
We have developed a means of producing a steady state hybrid simulation of a collisionless shock. The shock is stopped in the simulation box by transforming into the shock frame and by modifying the downstream boundary conditions to allow the plasma to flow through the simulation box. Once the shock is stationary in the box frame, the simulation can be run for an arbitrary time with a fixed box size and a fixed number of simulation particles. Using this technique, we have shown that certain gross properties associated with the shock, such as the particle distribution function (including energetic particles produced by Fermi acceleration) and the flow speed profile, are constant (except for statistical variations) over hundreds of gyroperiods when averaged over times short compared to the average residence time of energetic particles. Our results imply that any microphysical processes responsible for particle heating and/or injection into the Fermi mechanism can be viewed as smooth and continuous on timescales longer than a few gyroperiods.
One of the longest standing unsolved problems in physics relates to the behavior of fluids that are driven far from equilibrium such as occurs when they become turbulent due to fast flow through a grid or tidal motions. In turbulent flows the distribution of vortex energy as a function of the inverse length scale [or wavenumber 'k'] of motion is proportional to 1/k(sup 5/3) which is the celebrated law of Kolmogorov. Although this law gives a good description of the average motion, fluctuations around the average are huge. This stands in contrast with thermally activated motion where large fluctuations around thermal equilibrium are highly unfavorable. The problem of turbulence is the problem of understanding why large fluctuations are so prevalent which is also called the problem of 'intermittency'. Turbulence is a remarkable problem in that its solution sits simultaneously at the forefront of physics, mathematics, engineering and computer science. A recent conference [March 2002] on 'Statistical Hydrodynamics' organized by the Los Alamos Laboratory Center for Nonlinear Studies brought together researchers in all of these fields. Although turbulence is generally thought to be described by the Navier-Stokes Equations of fluid mechanics the solution as well as its existence has eluded researchers for over 100 years. In fact proof of the existence of such a solution qualifies for a 1 M$ millennium prize. As part of our NASA funded research we have proposed building a bridge between vortex turbulence and wave turbulence. The latter occurs when high amplitude waves of various wavelengths are allowed to mutually interact in a fluid. In particular we have proposed measuring the interaction of ripples [capillary waves] that run around on the surface of a fluid sphere suspended in a microgravity environment. The problem of ripple turbulence poses similar mathematical challenges to the problem of vortex turbulence. The waves can have a high amplitude and a strong nonlinear interaction. Furthermore, the steady state distribution of energy again follows a Kolmogorov scaling law; in this case the ripple energy is distributed according to 1/k (sup 7/4). Again, in parallel with vortex turbulence ripple turbulence exhibits intermittency. The problem of ripple turbulence presents an experimental opportunity to generate data in a controlled, benchmarked system. In particular the surface of a sphere is an ideal environment to study ripple turbulence. Waves run around the sphere and interact with each other, and the effect of walls is eliminated. In microgravity this state can be realized for over 2 decades of frequency. Wave turbulence is a physically relevant problem in its own right. It has been studied on the surface of liquid hydrogen and its application to Alfven waves in space is a source of debate. Of course, application of wave turbulence perspectives to ocean waves has been a major success. The experiment which we plan to run in microgravity is conceptually straightforward. Ripples are excited on the surface of a spherical drop of fluid and then their amplitude is recorded with appropriate photography. A key challenge is posed by the need to stably position a 10cm diameter sphere of water in microgravity. Two methods are being developed. Orbitec is using controlled puffs of air from at least 6 independent directions to provided the positioning force. This approach has actually succeeded to position and stabilize a 4cm sphere during a KC 135 segment. Guigne International is using the radiation pressure of high frequency sound. These transducers have been organized into a device in the shape of a dodecahedron. This apparatus 'SPACE DRUMS' has already been approved for use for combustion synthesis experiments on the International Space Station. A key opportunity presented by the ripple turbulence data is its use in driving the development of codes to simulate its properties.