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DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Low Intensity Fires: Lessons Learned from 2012 RxCADRE

Coupled fire-atmosphere models are increasingly being used to study low-intensity fires, such as those that are used in prescribed fire applications. Thus, the need arises to evaluate these models for their ability to accurately represent fire spread in marginal burning conditions. In this study, wind and fuel data collected during the Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research Experiments (RxCADRE) fire campaign were used to generate initial and boundary conditions for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. We present a novel method to obtain fuels representation at the model grid scale using a combination of imagery, machine learning, and field sampling. Several methods to generate wind input conditions for the model from eight different anemometer measurements are explored. We find a strong sensitivity of fire outcomes to wind inputs. This result highlights the critical need to include variable wind fields as inputs in modeling marginal fire conditions. This work highlights the complexities of comparing physics-based model results against observations, which are more acute in marginal burning conditions, where stronger sensitivities to local variability in wind and fuels drive fire outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation for Robust UQ Within Agent-Based Simulation on HPC Systems

Agent-based simulation provides a powerful tool for in silico system modeling. However, these simulations do not provide built-in methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Within these types of models a typical approach to UQ is to run multiple realizations of the model then compute aggregate statistics. This approach is limited due to the compute time required for a solution. When faced with an emerging biothreat, public health decisions need to be made quickly and solutions for integrating near real-time data with analytic tools are needed. We propose an integrated Bayesian UQ framework for agent-based models based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Given streaming or static data about the evolution of an emerging pathogen this Bayesian framework provides a distribution over the parameters governing the spread of a disease through a population. These estimates of the spread of a disease may be provided to public health agencies seeking to abate the spread. By coupling agent-based simulations with Bayesian modeling in a data assimilation, our proposed framework provides a powerful tool for modeling dynamical systems in silico. We propose a method which reduces model error and provides a range of realistic possible outcomes. Moreover, our method addresses two primary limitations of ABMs: the lack of UQ and an inability to assimilate data. Our proposed framework combines the flexibility of an agent-based model with UQ provided by the Bayesian paradigm in a workflow which scales well to HPC systems. We provide algorithmic details and results on a simulated outbreak with both static and streaming data.

Spannaus, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225213657)↗

NASA NTRS2001

Gravitational Influences on Flame Propagation through Non-Uniform, Premixed Gas Systems

Flame propagation through non-uniformly premixed (or layered) gases has importance both in useful combustion systems and in unintentional fires. As summarized previously, non-uniform premixed gas combustion receives scant attention compared to the more usual limiting cases of diffusion or uniformly premixed flames, especially regarding the role gravity plays. This paper summarizes our progress on furthering the knowledge of layered combustion, in which a fuel concentration gradient exists normal to the direction of flame spread. We present experimental and numerical results for flame spread through propanol-air layers formed near the flash point temperature (25 C) or near the stoichiometric temperature (33 C). Both the model and experimental results show that the removal of gravity results in a faster spreading flame, by as much as 80% depending on conditions. This is exactly the opposite effect as that predicted by an earlier model reported. We also found that having a gallery lid results in faster flame spread, an effect more pronounced at normal gravity, demonstrating the importance of enclosure geometry. Also reported here is the beginning of our spectroscopic measurements of fuel vapor.

Miller, Fletcher J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

life support↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Needs for Power Semiconductor Devices and Power Electronics Systems: Preprint

As energy systems move towards wide-spread electrification, penetration of power semiconductor devices and power electronics continues to grow at a rapid pace. This paper attempts to review the state of the art in power semiconductor modeling and the existing state of modeling in general when in it comes to design of devices and systems. The modeling needs for semiconductor devices vary depending on the end goal, and the level of abstraction needed towards model formulation also changes with the size and complexity of system to be designed. Finally, key aspects of thermal design and modeling for power electronics are also discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lower Tropospheric Processes: A Control on the Global Mean Precipitation Rate

The spread in global mean precipitation among climate models is explored in two ensembles using the complementary perspectives of surface evaporation and energy budgets. Models with higher global mean precipitation have stronger oceanic evaporation, driven by drier near-surface air. The drier surface conditions occur alongside increases in near-surface temperature and moisture at 925 hPa, which point to stronger boundary layer mixing. Correlations suggest that the degree of lower tropospheric mixing explains 18%–49% of the intermodel precipitation variance. To test this hypothesis, the degree of mixing is indirectly varied in a single-model experiment by adjusting the relative humidity threshold that controls low-cloud fraction. Indeed, increasing lower tropospheric mixing results in more global mean precipitation. Energetically, increased precipitation rates are associated with more downwelling longwave radiation to the surface and weaker sensible heat fluxes. These results highlight how lower-tropospheric processes must be better constrained to reduce the precipitation discrepancy among climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of point spread function higher moments error on weak gravitational lensing – II. A comprehensive study

ABSTRACT Weak lensing is one of the most powerful probes for dark matter and dark energy science, although it faces increasing challenges in controlling systematic uncertainties as the statistical errors become smaller. The point spread function (PSF) needs to be precisely modeled to avoid systematic error on the weak lensing measurements. The weak lensing biases induced by errors in the PSF model second moments, i.e. its size and shape, are well-studied. However, Zhang et al. showed that errors in the higher moments of the PSF may also be a significant source of systematics for upcoming weak lensing surveys. Therefore, this work comprehensively investigate the modelling quality of PSF moments from the 3rd to 6th order, and propagate the PSFEx higher moments modelling error in the HSC survey data set to the weak lensing shear–shear correlation functions and their cosmological analyses. The overall multiplicative shear bias associated with errors in PSF higher moments can cause an ∼0.1σ shift on the cosmological parameters for LSST Y10, while the associated additive biases can induce 1σ uncertainties in cosmology parameter inference for LSST Y10, if not accounted. We compare the PSFEx model with PSF in Full FOV, and find similar performance in modelling the PSF higher moments. We conclude that PSF higher moment errors of the future PSF models should be reduced from those in current methods, otherwise needed to be explicitly modeled in the weak lensing analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Critical Shear Stress for Erosion Under Laminar Jet Flow

Particle erosion is an important process in both natural and manmade environments. For example, in natural environments particle or sediment erosion rates determine the course of rivers, depth of streams, and fate of deltas. The interplay between erosion rates and flow patterns can have dramatic impact on shorelines. Where hydrodynamic jet flows or rip currents change direction, sediments may accumulate or disperse altering the shape of coastlines and the ecosystems and economies that rely on them. In man-made systems, jet flows may be used to mobilize particles from surfaces or within industrial scale mixing tanks. For example, in the nuclear industry, impinging jet mixers may be used to mobilize and suspend sludges at the bottom of waste tanks. In each of these examples, the Shields diagram is useful to determine the conditions under which erosion occurs. This diagram plots the scaled critical shear stress for erosion as a function of the particle size as embedded in particle Reynolds numbers, Archimedes numbers, or their equivalents. Although the data, that carries a large spread, is largely in agreement with mathematical models, for the smallest particles, model predictions diverge from each other and from experimental data. Indeed, there is substantial uncertainty about the Shields diagrams at relatively small particle sizes and flow rates. Here we evaluate critical shear stresses for erosion under laminar jet flow. To date critical shear stresses for erosion, as embodied in Shields diagrams, have largely been developed for turbulent flow both experimental and mathematically. However, curves on the Shields diagrams diverge among various models at lower particle Reynolds numbers. Indeed, how critical shear stresses for erosion develop under fully laminar jet flow conditions (not simply laminar boundary layers under turbulent flow) remains unclear. Here we address this gap, which is particularly important for mobilization of the smallest particles. We find the Shields parameter to be inversely proportional to the particle Reynolds numbers under laminar jet flow conditions similar to turbulent conditions.

critical shear stresses, erosion rates, effective ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Novel Poly-Si:Ga/SiOx Passivating Contacts through Non-Equilibrium Doping

Poly-Si/SiOx passivating contacts are one of the key enablers for high-efficiency, low-cost c-Si solar cells. In recent years, record devices have reached efficiencies of 26% in the laboratory and 25% in the industry. The current cell structure utilizing a tunneling oxide passivating contact structure with a back phosphorus-doped poly- Si/SiOx passivating contact and a front boron diffused emitter suffers from large emitter recombination. Thus, replacing the front B diffused emitter with a p-type passivating contact is a route to overcome this deficiency. This gives rise to front/back poly-Si based passivating contacts. To address the low passivation performance of the B-doped poly-Si passivating contacts, we replace B with Ga as a novel p-type dopant to avoid dopant accumulation in the tunneling oxide, which is known to lead to large degradation loss in passivation quality. Here, we introduce a non-equilibrium method via pulsed laser melting to thermally melt and recrystallize the poly-Si and redistribute the dopants, achieving doping concentrations above the solid solubility limit (~4E19 cm-3). We demonstrate a good passivation quality with an iVoc of 721 mV with an active Ga doping concentration in poly-Si >1020 cm-3. Furthermore, we show a low contact resistivity of 33.2 +/- 9.3 mO cm2 using a diode model calculation. Finally, cross-section scanning spreading resistance microscopy was performed to determine the resistance profile across the non-homogeneously doped poly-Si layer.

c-Si↗

NASA NTRS1973

Heating of food in modified atmospheres

Food heating tests were conducted with two model foods; a Carnation turkey salad sandwich spread and frankfurter chunks in a sauce of water and agar. For the first series of tests comparing heating in five different atmospheres, the atmospheres were: (1) air at atmospheric pressure, (2) air at 5 psia, (3) helium at 5 psia, (4) oxygen-nitrogen mixture at 5 psia, and (5) oxygen-helium mixture at 5 psia. No significant differences in heating rates were caused by varying the atmosphere. Initial food temperatures were varied in the next series of tests. Heating times were found to increase with decreasing initial temperatures. There were also differences in heating times between the two foods used.

Sweat, V. E.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Optimum coherent imaging of a limited field of view in the presence of angular and aperture noise

The question of image distribution reconstruction for coherent illumination of an object located in the aperture far zone is considered from first principles without postulating any particular optical spread function. The object function is mathematically modeled as a complex random function of angular coordinates, and it is assumed that the object distribution of interest is angularly limited to a certain a priori assigned field of view (FOV). A linear reconstruction procedure that is uniformly optimal in the FOV is established by using the methods of statistical estimation. Two special cases are examined: imaging a limited sector of a wide-angle random scene and objects in the FOV immersed in a wide-angle background of angular noise. It is noted that the domain of application of the reconstruction method is restricted to microwave frequencies.

Borgiotti, G. V.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A connectionist model for dynamic control

The application of a connectionist modeling method known as competition-based spreading activation to a camera tracking task is described. The potential is explored for automation of control and planning applications using connectionist technology. The emphasis is on applications suitable for use in the NASA Space Station and in related space activities. The results are quite general and could be applicable to control systems in general.

Whitfield, Kevin C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A connectionist model for dynamic control

Whitfield, Kevin C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A new mixing length model for supersonic shear layers

A new mixing length model is presented for supersonic shear flows. In this model, the characteristic scale of the mixing region is not constant across the shear layer at each axial position but is determined locally by the lateral distance between the two points where flow moves sonic relative to the local point. Supersonic free shear layers at various Mach numbers were calculated by solving the compressible boundary layer equations with the new model. The results demonstrate the decrease of spreading rate with increasing Mach number and agree well with experimental data.

Kim, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Direct numerical simulation of laminar breakdown in high-speed, axisymmetric boundary layers

Temporal direct numerical simulation of laminar breakdown via subharmonic secondary instability in high-speed axisymmetric boundary layers has been accomplished using a highly accurate, fully explicit algorithm which combines spectral collocation and high-order compact-difference techniques. Numerical test cases confirm that subharmonic secondary instability is confirmed to be a viable path to transition in high-speed boundary-layer flow. Secondary instability is shown to account for peaks in the Reynolds stresses at or near the critical layer which are not possible from the second-mode primary instability alone. Reynolds stresses spatially reconstructed from the temporal model via the Gaster transformation show a 'spreading angle' of about 12 deg, in qualitative agreement with experimental findings. The rate of broadening of the Reynolds stress peak is a strongly nonlinear phenomenon which cannot be reproduced by secondary instability theory.

Pruett, C. D.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Comparison of Columnar Water-Vapor Measurements from Solar Transmittance Methods

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program studied water vapor abundance measurement at its southern Great Plains site in the fall of 1997. The program used a large number of instruments, including four solar radiometers. By measuring solar transmittance in the 0.94 micrometer water apor absorption band, they were able to measure columnar water vapor (CWV). In the second round of comparison we used the same radiative transfer model, and the same line-by-line code (which includes recently corrected H2O spectroscopy) to retrieve CWV from all four solar radiometers, thus decreasing the mean CWV by 8 - 13 %. The model was not responsible for the 8 % spread in CWV which remained.

Schmid, Beat↗

NASA NTRS2003

Mesospheric Non-Migrating Tides Generated With Planetary Waves: II Influence of Gravity Waves

We demonstrated that, in our model, non-linear interactions between planetary waves (PW) and migrating tides could generate in the upper mesosphere non-migrating tides with amplitudes comparable to those observed. The Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) we employ incorporates Hines Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW), which affect in numerous ways the dynamics of the mesosphere. The latitudinal (seasonal) reversals in the temperature and zonal circulation, which are largely caused by GWs (Lindzen, 198l), filter the PWs and contribute to the instabilities that generate the PWs. The PWs in turn are amplified by the momentum deposition of upward propagating GWs, as are the migrating tides. The GWs thus affect significantly the migrating tides and PWs, the building blocks of non-migrating tides. In the present paper, we demonstrate that GW filtering also contributes to the non-linear coupling between PWs and tides. Two computer experiments are presented to make this point. In one, we simply turn off the GW source to show the effect. In the second case, we demonstrate the effect by selectively suppressing the momentum source for the m = 0 non-migrating tides.

Mayr, H. G.↗