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DOE OSTI2026

Observational Data for Next-Generation Climate Model Evaluation: Requirements, Considerations, and Best Practices

Climate model simulations are an important source of information about our planet’s climate system and also enable informed decision-making under different future scenarios. As a new archive of results from the next generation of climate models is anticipated to become available with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), the need to develop efficient and robust methods to evaluate models is paramount. Observations are an integral part of model evaluation, providing a means to quantify and understand the degree to which climate models can faithfully reproduce Earth system processes. Such analysis is critical for constraining climate projections, identifying areas of focus for model development, and assisting analysts in deciphering the utility of models for specific applications. Observations of Earth system come from a diversity of sources, span different space–time domains, and are produced by different communities, and each dataset features different data structures and formats, metadata standards, and its own unique uncertainties. Uncertainties in an observational dataset may stem from gaps in temporal and spatial coverage, instrumentation errors, or assumptions in retrieval and processing methods. How then does one ensure that observational data are ready for use and utilized in the most appropriate way for robust, rapid, and routine climate model evaluation? The CMIP7 Model Benchmarking Task Team with input from the broader climate modeling, model evaluation, and observational data communities present a vision and considerations for best practices toward the optimal and appropriate use of observational data to support next-generation climate model evaluation.

Climate models↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2023 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2024 Circulation Test Data

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds

In 2018 and 2019, heatwaves set all-time temperature records around the world and caused adverse effects on human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and infrastructure. Often, severe impacts relate to the joint spatial and temporal extent of the heatwaves, but most research so far focuses either on spatial or temporal attributes of heatwaves. Furthermore, sensitivity of heatwaves characteristics to the choice of the heatwave thresholds in a warming climate are rarely discussed. Here, we analyze the largest spatiotemporal moderate heatwaves—that is, three-dimensional (space-time) clusters of hot days—in simulations of global climate models. We use three different hazard thresholds to define a hot day: fixed thresholds (time-invariant climatological thresholds), seasonally moving thresholds based on changes in the summer means, and fully moving thresholds (hot days defined relative to the future climatology). We find a substantial increase of spatiotemporally contiguous moderate heatwaves with global warming using fixed thresholds, whereas changes for the other two hazard thresholds are much less pronounced. In particular, no or very little changes in the overall magnitude, spatial extent, and duration are detected when heatwaves are defined relative to the future climatology using a temporally fully moving threshold. This suggests a dominant contribution of thermodynamic compared to dynamic effects in global climate model simulations. The similarity between seasonally moving and fully moving thresholds indicates that seasonal mean warming alone can explain large parts of the warming of extremes. The strong sensitivity of simulated future heatwaves to hazard thresholds should be considered in the projections of potential future heat-related impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Intrinsic spatial chirp of subcycle terahertz pulsed beams

Here, we present an analysis of spatial chirp in subcycle pulsed beams corroborated by spatiotemporal electro-optic sampling measurements of terahertz radiation. Modeling the subcycle pulsed beam as a superposition of monochromatic Gaussian beams, free-space propagation is shown to directly lead to lateral spatial chirp with the spectrum on-axis substantially bluer than the overall energy spectrum. The two-transverse + one-temporal dimensional profile of terahertz subcycle pulsed beams from organic crystals DSTMS and OH1 are measured and compared with observed spatiospectral correlations consistent with the model.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effective kinetics driven by dynamic concentration gradients under coupled transport and reaction

Biogeochemical reaction kinetics are generally established from batch reactors where concentrations are uniform. In natural systems, many biogeochemical processes are characterized by spatially and temporally variable concentration gradients that often occur at scales which are not resolved by field measurements or biogeochemical and reactive transport models. Yet, it is not clear how these sub-scale chemical gradients affect reaction kinetics compared to batch kinetics. Here we investigate this question by studying the paradigmatic case of localized pulses of solute reacting with a solid or a dissolved species in excess. Additionally, we consider non-linear biogeochemical reactions, representative of mineral dissolution, adsorption and redox reactions, which we quantify using simplified power-law kinetics. The combined effect of diffusion and reaction leads to effective kinetics that differ quantitatively and qualitatively from the batch kinetics. Depending on the nonlinearity (reaction order) of the local kinetics, these effects lead to either enhancement or decrease of the overall reaction rate, and result in a rich variety of reaction dynamics. We derive analytical results for the effective kinetics, which are validated by comparison to direct numerical simulations for a broad range of Damköhler numbers and reaction order. Our findings provide new insights into the interpretation of imperfectly mixed lab experiments, the effective kinetics of field systems characterized by intermittent reactant release and the integration of sub-scale concentration gradients in reactive transport models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States

An assessment of decarbonization pathways in energy models reveals fundamental limitations in representing factors that are relevant for practical decision-making. Although these modelling limitations are widely acknowledged, their impact on the deployment of individual power generation types is not well understood. As a result, the societal value from such generation types could be vastly misrepresented. Here we explore a wide spectrum of factors that impact offshore wind deployment in the United States using a detailed capacity expansion model. Many factors prescribe a large future role for offshore wind, yet this diverges from what models often show. We extend the typically narrow modelling context through high spatial resolution, several cost and transmission possibilities and various energy-sector policies. Further, we estimate offshore wind to constitute 1-8% (31-256 gigawatts) of total US generation by 2050. This wide range suggests an uncertain but potentially important regional role. Our expansive scenarios demonstrate how to address many limitations of decarbonization modelling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Radiation and heat transport in divergent shock–bubble interactions

Shock–bubble interactions (SBIs) are important across a wide range of physical systems. In inertial confinement fusion, interactions between laser-driven shocks and micro-voids in both ablators and foam targets generate instabilities that are a major obstacle in achieving ignition. Experiments imaging the collapse of such voids at high energy densities (HED) are constrained by spatial and temporal resolution, making simulations a vital tool in understanding these systems. In this study, we benchmark several radiation and thermal transport models in the xRAGE hydrodynamic code against experimental images of a collapsing mesoscale void during the passage of a 300 GPa shock. We also quantitatively examine the role of transport physics in the evolution of the SBI. This allows us to understand the dynamics of the interaction at timescales shorter than experimental imaging framerates. We find that all radiation models examined reproduce empirical shock velocities within experimental error. Radiation transport is found to reduce shock pressures by providing an additional energy pathway in the ablation region, but this effect is small (∼1% of total shock pressure). Employing a flux-limited Spitzer model for heat conduction, we find that flux limiters between 0.03 and 0.10 produce agreement with experimental velocities, suggesting that the system is well-within the Spitzer regime. Higher heat conduction is found to lower temperatures in the ablated plasma and to prevent secondary shocks at the ablation front, resulting in weaker primary shocks. Finally, we confirm that the SBI-driven instabilities observed in the HED regime are baroclinically driven, as in the low energy case.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Regional infrasonic observations from surface explosions – influence of atmospheric variations and realistic terrain

SUMMARY A pair of 1-ton, conventional surface explosions were conducted at the Nevada National Security Site in the fall of 2020 producing seismoacoustic signatures observable hundreds of kilometres from the source location. Regional infrasonic observations include tropospheric ducting at large distances to the south, a wide stratospheric waveguide with signals observed more than 700 km to the east, and anomalous arrivals in the stratospheric shadow zone. Notable differences in propagation between the events are identified despite the explosions being conducted just two days apart due to a sharp temporal shift in the tropospheric winds as well as structural changes in the stratospheric winds. Propagation simulations of the two events have been completed using a combination of ray tracing and parabolic equation (PE) methods. Simulations have been conducted to quantify the impact of the temporal variations in the atmosphere as well as the influence of terrain on propagation. Temporal variations in reflection locations are found to produce notable changes in downrange propagation due to spatially varying terrain features. Finite frequency effects modelled by the PE are found to predict ensonification not included in corresponding 2D ray tracing simulations. Notable variations in predicted signal amplitude are found due to focusing by along-path and cross-path terrain gradients; though, the later of these is only modelled using fully 3D ray tracing analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lightwave terahertz quantum manipulation of nonequilibrium superconductor phases and their collective modes

In this work, we present a gauge-invariant density matrix description of nonequilibrium superconductor (SC) states with spatial and temporal correlations driven by intense terahertz (THz) lightwaves. We derive superconductor Bloch-Maxwell equations of motion that extend Anderson pseudospin models to include the Cooper pair center-of-mass motion and electromagnetic propagation effects. We thus describe quantum control of dynamical phases, collective modes, quasiparticle coherence, and high nonlinearities during cycles of carrier wave oscillations, which relates to our recent experiments. Coherent photogeneration of a nonlinear supercurrent with a dc component, achieved via condensate acceleration by an effective lightwave field, dynamically breaks the equilibrium inversion symmetry. Experimental signatures include high harmonic light emission at equilibrium-symmetry-forbidden frequencies, Rabi-Higgs collective modes and quasiparticle coherence, and nonequilibrium moving condensate states tuned by few-cycle THz fields. We use such lightwaves as an oscillating accelerating force that drives strong nonlinearities and anisotropic quasiparticle populations to control and amplify different classes of collective modes, e.g., damped oscillations, persistent oscillations, and overdamped dynamics via Rabi flopping. Recent phase-coherent nonlinear spectroscopy experiments can be modeled by solving the full nonlinear quantum dynamics including self-consistent light-matter coupling.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning Scene Classification Experiments in Automatic Detection of Slums on Planetscope Imagery

Population growth is increasingly happening in slum settlements of the large urban centers in the Global South. The term "slum" encompasses a wide range of communities, located mostly in underserved areas, and often exhibiting distinct structural and functional informalities with a relatively high concentration of marginalized populations. To address the issues confronting slums for effective planning and development, including the realistic estimation of the resident population, identifying them accurately is fundamental. Given the disagreements over a universal definition, diverse characteristic features, and socio-political limitations, global detection of slums is a veritable challenge. In this paper, we present experiments in slum detection using a scene classification algorithm and 3-meter spatial resolution satellite imagery. We train and evaluate the model for slum detection in Mumbai, India for the year 2023 and test the temporal generalization of the trained model on Mumbai in 2020 and 2018. In addition, we explore the pathways toward geographic generalization to Kolkata and Delhi (India). We discuss several limitations in the workflow and model, situate our findings in the existing literature, and suggest improvements and alternatives. With this, we establish baseline methods and experiments as a first step towards developing an image-based global slum detection framework and algorithm. This work adds to the community discussion on methods, data challenges, and open questions related to the detection of slums globally. With this research, we hope to improve our understanding of human settlements, especially in critical areas, improve population estimates, and help measure progress towards the sustainable development goals.

Arndt, Jacob↗

DOE OSTI2022

Key environmental and production factors for understanding variation in switchgrass chemical attributes

Abstract Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) is a promising feedstock for bioenergy and bioproducts; however, its inherent variability in chemical attributes creates challenges for uniform conversion efficiencies and product quality. It is necessary to understand the range of variation and factors (i.e., field management, environmental) influencing chemical attributes for process improvement and risk assessment. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the impact of nitrogen fertilizer application rate, year, and location on switchgrass chemical attributes, (2) examine the relationships among chemical attributes, weather and soil data, and (3) develop models to predict chemical attributes using environmental factors. Switchgrass samples from a field study spanning four locations including upland cultivars, one location including a lowland cultivar, and between three and six harvest years were assessed for glucan, xylan, lignin, volatiles, carbon, nitrogen, and ash concentrations. Using variance estimation, location/cultivar, nitrogen application rate, and year explained 65%–96% of the variation for switchgrass chemical attributes. Location/cultivar × year interaction was a significant factor for all chemical attributes indicating environmental‐based influences. Nitrogen rate was less influential. Production variables and environmental conditions occurring during the switchgrass field trials were used to successfully predict chemical attributes using linear regression models. Upland switchgrass results highlight the complexity in plant responses to growing conditions because all production and environmental variables had strong relationships with one or more chemical attributes. Lowland switchgrass was limited to observations of year‐to‐year environmental variability and nitrogen application rate. All explanatory variable categories were important for lowland switchgrass models but stand age and precipitation relationships were particularly strong. The relationships found in this study can be used to understand spatial and temporal variation in switchgrass chemical attributes. The ability to predict chemical attributes critical for conversion processes in a geospatial/temporal manner would provide state‐of‐the‐art knowledge for risk assessment in the bioenergy and bioproducts industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Kinetic effects of self-organization in low-temperature magnetized plasmas (Final Report for DE-SC0019045: 9/1/2018-8/31/2019)

The research goal of this Early Career Research Program project is to advance the science of low temperature magnetized plasmas using first-principles kinetic, e.g., solving the Boltzmann equation, models. A better understanding of the plasma transport properties, such as electrical resistivity and thermal conductivity must be obtained to better control and design magnetized plasma sources. A key physical phenomenon in low-temperature magnetized plasmas is the self-organization of plasma flows, e.g., coherent plasma structures and transition between different discharge modes. Understanding the physics of coherent plasma structures has been identified as one of the four important frontier topics in a recent workshop by the Office of Fusion Energy Science. These self-emerging plasma patterns results from the nonlinear coupling between plasma constituents (ions, electrons, and neutral atoms), electromagnetic fields, and materials. The physics of low-temperature magnetized plasmas is particularly complex because (i) the collisionless instabilities affect collisional phenomena (ionization, transport, etc.) and vice versa and (ii) the presence of materials (sheath, electron injection, etc.) influences the bulk plasma properties in low-temperature plasma (LTP) devices. Computational models of these plasma flows remain challenging because the plasma density can vary several orders of magnitudes, a wide range of temporal and spatial scales must be resolved, the phenomena are inherently three-dimensional, and various physical processes, such as wall interaction, instabilities, inelastic collisions, etc., must be simultaneously and self-consistently taken into account. Understanding the fundamental transport mechanisms in cross-field configurations enables additional controllability of plasma properties and electron energy distribution functions (EEDFs).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays: Evaluating Sampling Techniques for MHK Biological Monitoring (Task 6)

The overall goal of the task was to identify cost effective biological sampling techniques for MHK environmental monitoring. Protected, demersal, and pelagic fish and selected nektonic invertebrates were surveyed using capture and remote sensing techniques at the PacWave sites. The performance of capture and remote sensing monitoring techniques were evaluated and generic nekton monitoring indices were developed for MHK technologies and sites. In parallel to data collections at the PacWave site, the ability of regression models to characterize, detect, and predict change in acoustic data was evaluated using acoustic data collected in Admiralty Inlet, WA, during a biological monitoring study of the proposed SnoPud tidal turbine project site. Expected outcomes of these efforts included an evaluation of instrumentation and techniques used to monitor biological variability; identification of data streams that can be used to detect and quantify change; and sampling requirements to ensure detection of change in monitored variables.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cross-Platform Application for High Resolution Thermal Comfort Mapping from Energy Models: Phase I Final Report

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

CSP↗

DOE OSTI2024

Diffusion-Model-Assisted Supervised Learning of Generative Models for Density Estimation

Here, we present a supervised learning framework of training generative models for density estimation. Generative models, including generative adversarial networks (GANs), normalizing flows, and variational auto-encoders (VAEs), are usually considered as unsupervised learning models, because labeled data are usually unavailable for training. Despite the success of the generative models, there are several issues with the unsupervised training, e.g., requirement of reversible architectures, vanishing gradients, and training instability. To enable supervised learning in generative models, we utilize the score-based diffusion model to generate labeled data. Unlike existing diffusion models that train neural networks to learn the score function, we develop a training-free score estimation method. This approach uses mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimators to directly approximate the score function at any spatial-temporal location in solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE), corresponding to the reverse-time stochastic differential equation (SDE). This approach can offer both high accuracy and substantial time savings in neural network training. Once the labeled data are generated, we can train a simple, fully connected neural network to learn the generative model in the supervised manner. Compared with existing normalizing flow models, our method does not require the use of reversible neural networks and avoids the computation of the Jacobian matrix. Compared with existing diffusion models, our method does not need to solve the reverse-time SDE to generate new samples. As a result, the sampling efficiency is significantly improved. We demonstrate the performance of our method by applying it to a set of 2D datasets as well as real data from the University of California Irvine (UCI) repository.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Yield From Iowa's First Commercial Miscanthus Fields: Implications of Spatial Variability for Productivity and Sustainability Beyond Research Plots

The cultivation of sterile giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus, M × g) for bioenergy and bioproducts has expanded into grain-cropped land in the United States (US) as local markets developed for this high-yielding perennial grass (10–30 Mg DM ha −1 ). However, the magnitude of spatial and temporal variability in yield within US Corn Belt fields, along with impacts on economic return and sustainable land management, is poorly understood. This study established a diagnostic model relating remote sensing-derived vegetation indices to ground truth data from 105 hand-harvested stem biomass samples, which were strategically selected to represent the full range of vegetation index observations. The high-resolution satellite-sensed vegetation indices captured > 90% of the yield variation measured within fields. This model was then used to predict yield variability and assess economic performance across four of the first commercial M × g fields in the Corn Belt state of Iowa, US. Significant spatial variability in biomass dry matter (DM) yields (9.3–18.1 Mg DM ha −1 ) and net profits ($\$$83 to $\$$1211.5 ha −1 ) was observed. All fields were profitable in all site-years. When low profit occurred, it was explained by limited management experience of the crop in Iowa. The breakeven yield at a selling price of $\$$130 Mg −1 varied from 9.0–12.1 Mg ha −1 at 15% moisture content (7.6–10.3 Mg DM ha −1 ). Breakeven prices ranged from $\$$73 to $\$$122.4 Mg −1 , matching ranges used in the Department of Energy Billion Ton Report (US Department of Energy, 2023). Notably, M × g yield and profits were commensurate with grain crops particularly with favorable precipitation. This study provides insight on the M × g management “learning curve”, performance on marginal land and in drought conditions, and demonstrates that addressing yield gaps, reducing costs, and implementing precision agriculture strategies can enhance profitability. These findings emphasize the value of remote sensing technologies in guiding sustainable and competitive commercial-scale M × g production.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

21-Year Modeled Spatiotemporal Low-Level Jet Climatology Along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast

Offshore wind farms are influenced by a variety of meteorological phenomena, ranging in spatial and temporal extent. One of these phenomena, the low-level jet (LLJ), is defined as a local maximum in wind speed with height in the planetary boundary layer, exhibiting a "nose-like" structure usually in the lowest few hundred meters above the surface. This vertical extent of LLJs may coincide with the rotor-swept area of a wind turbine, thus having implications for potential power production and mechanical loading. Previous studies in this area based on observations have confirmed the prevalence of LLJs here, with implications on power generation, wind turbine loads, and wake recovery depending on the LLJ characteristics, such as nose height and what part of the wind turbine power curve is being impacted.

LLJ↗