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531 records · Page 30

Advanced SOFC quality control and the role of manufacturing defects on stack reliability

Atrex Energy rolled out first commercial SOFC generator products in 2013. Following that we embarked on implementation of mass production in order to ramp up productivity and lower the costs in the meantime. To ensure the goal of mass production, an accurate, cost effective and consistent quality control methodology needs to be in place. The aim of this DOE funded project is to devise a machine and methodology for cell quality control using modern non-destructive testing methods and cell rejection criterion based on the empirical determination of the role of manufacturing flaws on stack degradation and reliability. The work scope encompasses two goals aimed at 1) developing automatable techniques for objective flaw detection and 2) developing an understanding of the ramifications of flaws on stack and cell reliability. By accomplishing these two goals it is likely that an advanced stage Quality Control (QC) device can be developed. This project scope encompasses: 1) Invention of a high speed automated instrument for spatial mapping of surface and sub-surface imperfections in production cells (ex situ) using modern imaging techniques. 2) Identification of rejection criteria upon which to screen cells from production by: a. Magnification of the effect of production defects on cell degradation through fabrication and testing of micro-cells which encompass these imperfections. b. The long term testing of full size production cells both as single cells and in small stacks, in order to correlate the (in situ) performance and degradation with the imperfection type (identified ex-situ) and hence be able to classify imperfections as actual defects. We first built a defect library with the cells containing imperfections classified and documented. The cells with various imperfections were tested to evaluate the imperfection potential impact on cell electrochemical performance. Evaluations were conducted on minicell, single cell and stack levels. On minicell level, pinhole, scratch, crack, contamination, and pop-out were investigated. We found: (1) none of the imperfections causes calamity type failure, (2) pinholes do not show measurable effect on minicell performance, (3) imperfection such as electrolyte abrasion, scratch, and pop out cause minicell potential to fluctuate by different degrees; the cells with such imperfections exhibit sensitivity of potential to high fuel utilization and “self healing” behavior. On single cell level we evaluated the effect of long crack and high population pinholes. The cell with a long crack does not show performance compromise at start. There is no potential fluctuation or sensitivity to high fuel utilization or catastrophic failure. The voltage degradation due to thermal cycle is slightly higher than normal cells. The cells with high population pinholes perform surprisingly as well as normal cells over a period of 3,500h. Even when subjected to cyclic load condition, the cells 4 show negligible degradation. Our cells appear to have “self immunization” feature which fends off the adversary effects of certain imperfections. Defects were also evaluated on stack level. Two stacks were made each with ten defect cells. The first stack was tested for 13,2000h under steady load condition while the second was tested for 9,000h under transient load conditions. We found: (1) voltage fluctuation and sensitivity to thermal cycle were not observed in contrast to minicell test, (2) of the various cracks examined, including longitudinal cracks, circumferential crack, crack near closed and open ends, none exhibited distinguishable impact on performance, (3) defect cells exhibited higher degradation rates on average under steady load condition; Individually some defect cells performed similarly or better than reference cells, (4) under steady load condition all the cells degrade monotonically with degradation rate increasing with time, (5) under cyclic (transient) load condition, both defect and reference cells exhibit complex dynamic behaviors, (6) fuel loss (leak) was measured occasionally for stack 1, the cells with crack showed the highest fuel loss increase, nevertheless, no correlation with performance degradation could be established with certainty, and (7) no catastrophic failure ever happened other than incremental degradation. Posttest inspection and microanalysis were carried out; the observations are summarized in what follows: (1) Electrolyte pinholes, some scratches and IC porosity became undetectable after testing. (2) The cathode covering the popout defects is intact without any cracking or delamination. (3) The scratch was covered by cathode in pristine state; Ni oxide or NiO-YSZ filled the space where electrolyte was missing. After >10,000h operation, the cathode that used to cover the scratch was missing but the size of the scratch remains unchanged; there is a fairly dense Ni oxide layer on top of the scratch. (4) All of the cracks remain their original dimensions. Current collector kept longitudinal cracks closed which mitigated the adversary effect of crack on cell performance/durability. (5) The crack at open end showed some deterioration manifested by a small oxidation zone in the vicinity of the crack. Wide spectrum of imaging techniques were surveyed and evaluated to detect tubular SOFC defects. Optical methods, with and without assistance of expression technique, were applied to detect all kinds of defects. Thermograph method in combination of CO2 leak, ultra-sound and electric potential was also extensively evaluated to detect surface and under-surface defects such as short circuit. Based on these works, laser camera has been selected to build the final QC machine vision inspection system. The Gocator laser profile sensor was setup to generate 2D surface intensity images of tubular SOFC surface which were analyzed with Sherlock machine vision software supplied by Teledyne Dalsa. The Gocator output was integrated with the Sherlock software and enabled live images to be imported by a Common Vision Blox driver. The Sherlock software was programmed to detect various surface defects from the surface intensity images generated by the Gocator. These measurements are subsequently used to make pass or fail decisions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Field Laboratory for Emerging Stacked Unconventional Plays in Central Appalachia

The goal of the Field Laboratory for Emerging Stacked Unconventional Plays (ESUP) in Central Appalachia project was to investigate and characterize the resource potential for multi-play production of emerging unconventional reservoirs in Central Appalachia. Project activities included drilling, logging and coring of a vertical characterization well drilled to basement to approximately 15,000 feet in depth. The data from drilling and well logs as well recovered core samples were used by the research team to support characterization of the geology and potential pay zones within the Nora Gas Field of southwestern Virginia and the greater Central Appalachian Basin. This project was led by Dr. Nino Ripepi of the Virginia Center for Coal and Energy Research (VCCER) in close collaboration with EnerVest Operating LLC (EnerVest). VCCER is housed in the Department of Mining and Minerals Engineering at Virginia Tech and was created by an Act of the Virginia General Assembly on March 30, 1977, as an interdisciplinary study, research, information, and resource facility for the Commonwealth of Virginia. EnerVest is a top tier, low-cost oil and natural gas company with a long history of traditional operating relationships with institutional investors as well as public and private companies. This report summarizes two major research activities: 1) Log and Core Analysis and 2) Numerical Modeling. Core analysis comprises the characterization efforts of the ESUP Field Laboratory and includes a discussion of the well logs run in the deep characterization wells, an initial analysis of those, the number, size and location of cores recovered, core testing and analysis done to date as well as plans for future analysis. Numerical modeling is comprised of seven major modeling efforts, including (1) Multiphysics shale transport modeling work, (2) the developed in-house compositional simulator studies, (3) reservoir modeling studies using GEM software, (4) fracture modeling work using EFRAC3D software and (5) numerical modeling efforts with ABAQUS software, (6) Numerical modeling efforts using FLAC3D and PFC3D, and (7) Automatic Machine Learning (AutoML) Studies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Preliminary Application of Formal Verification to An Autonomy Architecture for Unmanned Aircraft

There is a desire to design autonomous systems in such a way that capabilities can be easily added or re-combined to produce new behaviors while preserving their safety properties. ICAROUS, a prototype software architecture for building safety-centric autonomous unmanned aircraft applications, is designed to support this type of extensibility and re-configurability. In ICAROUS, core capabilities are implemented as individual soft- ware services, so that enabling access to new capabilities simply requires adding new services. To make use of these capabilities, ICAROUS includes a specialized service that provides a general framework for config- uring the relative priorities, conditions, and rules that govern how different modules should be engaged and disengaged during flight. The inherent complexity of coordinating multiple modules under changing conditions makes it difficult to determine whether a particular configuration could have erroneous behaviors in certain circumstances. A robust set of integration tests can help discover errors, but testing can only realistically cover a relatively small proportion of total system behaviors. Developing good tests and interpreting the results to pinpoint the cause of errors when they arise can also be very time-consuming. To supplement testing, formal methods can be used to model and analyze complex systems, achieving better coverage and simplifying the process of finding, understanding, and fixing errors. To demonstrate these benefits, this paper explores the ap- plication of formal methods to ICAROUS. In particular, the Spin model checker is used to specify requirements for and model portions of the system, then verify whether the model satisfies the requirements and find and fix errors when it does not.

Formal Methods↗

Preliminary Application of Formal Verification to An Autonomy Architecture for Unmanned Aircraft

There is a desire to design autonomous systems in such a way that capabilities can be easily added or re- combined to produce new behaviors while preserving their safety properties. ICAROUS, a prototype software architecture for building safety-centric autonomous unmanned aircraft applications, is designed to support this type of extensibility and re-configurability. In ICAROUS, core capabilities are implemented as individual soft- ware services, so that enabling access to new capabilities simply requires adding new services. To make use of these capabilities, ICAROUS includes a specialized service that provides a general framework for config- uring the relative priorities, conditions, and rules that govern how different modules should be engaged and disengaged during flight. The inherent complexity of coordinating multiple modules under changing conditions makes it difficult to determine whether a particular configuration could have erroneous behaviors in certain circumstances. A robust set of integration tests can help discover errors, but testing can only realistically cover a relatively small proportion of total system behaviors. Developing good tests and interpreting the results to pinpoint the cause of errors when they arise can also be very time-consuming. To supplement testing, formal methods can be used to model and analyze complex systems, achieving better coverage and simplifying the process of finding, understanding, and fixing errors. To demonstrate these benefits, this paper explores the ap- plication of formal methods to ICAROUS. In particular, the Spin model checker is used to specify requirements for and model portions of the system, then verify whether the model satisfies the requirements and find and fix errors when it does not.

Formal Methods↗

SAMZ: Satellite-Derived Management Zones

The term "satellite-derived management zones" (SAMZ) denotes agricultural management zones that are subdivisions of large fields and that are derived from images of the fields acquired by instruments aboard Earth orbiting satellites during approximately the past 15 years. "SAMZ" also denotes the methodology and the software that implements the methodology for creating such zones. The SAMZ approach is one of several products of continuing efforts to realize a concept of precision agriculture, which involves optimal variations in seeding, in application of chemicals, and in irrigation, plus decisions to farm or not to farm certain portions of fields, all in an effort to maximize profitability in view of spatial and temporal variations in the growth and health of crops and in the chemical and physical conditions of soils. As used here, "management zone" signifies, more precisely, a subdivision of a field within which the crop production behavior is regarded as homogeneous. From the perspective of precision agriculture, management zones are the smallest subdivisions between which the seeding, application of chemicals, and other management parameters are to be varied. In the SAMZ approach, the main sources of data are the archives of satellite imagery that have been collected over the years for diverse purposes. One of the main advantages afforded by the SAMZ approach is that the data in these archives can be reused for purposes of precision agriculture at low cost. De facto, these archives contain information on all sources of variability within a field, including weather, crop types, crop management, soil types, and water drainage patterns. The SAMZ methodology involves the establishment of a Web-based interface based on an algorithm that generates management zones automatically and quickly from archival satellite image data in response to requests from farmers. A farmer can make a request by either uploading data describing a field boundary to the Web site or else drawing the boundary on a reference image. Hence, a farmer can start to engage in precision farming shortly after gaining access to the Web site, without need for incurring the high costs of conventional precision-agriculture data-collection practices that include collecting soil samples, mapping electrical conductivity of soil, and compiling multi-year crop-yield data. Given the boundary of a field, a SAMZ server computes the zones within the field in a three-stage process. In the first stage, a vector-valued image of the field is constructed by assembling, from the archives, the equivalent of a stack of the available images of the field (see figure). In the second stage, the vector-valued image is analyzed by use of a wavelet transform that detects spatial variations considered significant for precision farming while suppressing small-scale heterogeneities that are regarded as insignificant. In the third stage, a segmentation algorithm assembles the zones from smaller regions that have been identified in the wavelet analysis.

Source record↗

Satellite-Derived Management Zones

The term "satellite-derived management zones" (SAMZ) denotes agricultural management zones that are subdivisions of large fields and that are derived from images of the fields acquired by instruments aboard Earth-orbiting satellites during approximately the past 15 years. "SAMZ" also denotes the methodology and the software that implements the methodology for creating such zones. The SAMZ approach is one of several products of continuing efforts to realize a concept of precision agriculture, which involves optimal variations in seeding, in application of chemicals, and in irrigation, plus decisions to farm or not to farm certain portions of fields, all in an effort to maximize profitability in view of spatial and temporal variations in the growth and health of crops, and in the chemical and physical conditions of soils. As used here, "management zone" signifies, more precisely, a subdivision of a field within which the crop-production behavior is regarded as homogeneous. From the perspective of precision agriculture, management zones are the smallest subdivisions between which the seeding, application of chemicals, and other management parameters are to be varied. In the SAMZ approach, the main sources of data are the archives of satellite imagery that have been collected over the years for diverse purposes. One of the main advantages afforded by the SAMZ approach is that the data in these archives can be reused for purposes of precision agriculture at low cost. De facto, these archives contain information on all sources of variability within a field, including weather, crop types, crop management, soil types, and water drainage patterns. The SAMZ methodology involves the establishment of a Web-based interface based on an algorithm that generates management zones automatically and quickly from archival satellite image data in response to requests from farmers. A farmer can make a request by either uploading data describing a field boundary to the Web site or else drawing the boundary on a reference image. Hence, a farmer can start to engage in precision farming shortly after gaining access to the Web site, without the need for incurring the high costs of conventional precision-agriculture data-collection practices that include collecting soil samples, mapping electrical conductivity of soil, and compiling multiyear crop-yield data. Given the boundary of a field, a SAMZ server computes the zones within the field in a three-stage process. In the first stage, a vector-valued image of the field is constructed by assembling, from the archives, the equivalent of a stack of the available images of the field (see figure). In the second stage, the vector-valued image is analyzed by use of a wavelet transform that detects spatial variations considered significant for precision farming while suppressing small-scale heterogeneities that are regarded as insignificant. In the third stage, a segmentation algorithm assembles the zones from smaller regions that have been identified in the wavelet analysis.

Lepoutre, Damien↗

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Development of NDE/NDT Tools for High-Volume & High-Speed Inspection of CFRP Structures in Automotive Manufacturing

Main advantages of the air-coupled ultrasound testing (ACUT) and electromagnetic testing (EMT) techniques for NDE of CFRP composites were non-contact sensing, scalability for high-speed inspection, cost-effectiveness, and non-hazardous operation. Despite these advantages, no systems that would satisfy the project requirements were commercially available. Hence, one of the major efforts of the Michigan State University (MSU) team at the initial stage of the project was to close this technological gap by developing, optimizing, and validating array sensors that would provide sufficient sensitivity, spatial coverage, and resolution for robust defect detection. Optimization of the ACUT and EMT sensor designs was performed using experimentally validated finite element models. Initial experiments using array probes were conducted on relatively flat CFRP samples. In parallel, the MSU team designed and assembled a portable platform with two robotic arms. The robots were equipped with newly designed sensors that enabled high-speed NDE of curved CFRP parts. Presently, the developed robotic platform can be used as a demo/template NDE system, which is easily adaptable to manufacturing environments and in-line NDE. The ACUT NDE system developed by the MSU team used a high-power 4-channel pulser receiver for parallel data acquisition. The array probes were designed by stacking commercially available ACUT transducers, which operated in the frequency range between 100 kHz and 500 kHz. MSU optimized the excitation procedure and developed wave focusing cones so as to reduce the crosstalk between the transducers and to provide higher pulse repletion frequency (PRF). The through-transmission (TT) and single-side access (SSA) inspection modes were successfully implemented. In the TT-ACUT, structural defects in CFRP were detected by passing ultrasonic waves through the test part. Hence, the ACUT transmitters and receivers needed to be placed on the opposite sides of the test part. In the SSA-ACUT, guided waves (GW) were excited in the test part using the transmitters and were sensed by the receivers from the same side. Multi-channel TT-ACUT and SSA-ACUT provided high-speed NDE, and were successfully validated on CFRP test samples with interlaminar delaminations and other embedded defects The EM techniques developed by the MSU team included: 1) eddy current testing (ECT), 2) capacitive imaging (CI) and hybrid dual-mode imaging. In ECT, structural damage was detected in CFRP using coils sensor arrays. In ECT, the excitation magnetic field is generated by passing an alternating current through a coil, which is placed above the test sample. The excitation field penetrates the conductive sample and induces the eddy currents in its transect. In turn, the eddy currents generate the reaction field, which affects the total field sensed by a coil. Hence, the presence of structural flaws will alter the eddy current flow and the picked-up signal. ECT is mostly sensitive to local changes of the electric conductivity of the test sample, and CFRPs are mostly conductive in the direction of carbon fibers. Hence, ECT was well suited for the detection of fiber damage/fiber irregularities. The MSU team developed printed circuit boards (PCB) with coil sensor arrays optimized for NDE of CFRP. Unlike most commercial probes designed for ECT of metallic structures, the MSU array probes were designed for operation in [1-10] MHz frequency range, which was optimal for low-conductive CFRP. Multiple sensing topologies (coil groups excitation/sensing arrangements) were implemented and successfully validated. Capacitive Imaging (CI) technique developed by MSU was complementary to ECT. In contrast to ECT, which was sensitive to local changes of the electrical conductivity, the CI was sensitive to local changes of the dielectric constant. Therefore, CI could provide information about matrix damage/matrix irregularities in CFRP. The MSU CI sensor arrays were made of multiple circular or rectangular open-plate capacitors printed on PCB. Sensors of this type are not commercially available. In addition to ECT and CI, the MSU team developed a hybrid (dual-mode) inductive/capacitive measurement technique that synergistically combined the benefits of inductive and capacitive sensing for rapid NDE of fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) composite structures. Fiber damage and fiber irregularities in FRPs were detected by configuring hybrid sensors as coil sensors. Similarly, matrix damage, matrix irregularities and interlaminar delaminations were detected by configuring hybrid sensors as capacitive sensors. ECT and CI were performed sequentially by means of electronic switching. Hence, eliminating the need for mounting two separate sensor arrays on the probe. Portable robotic platform was developed by MSU for multi-technique high-speed NDE of CFRP test parts. The platform had two 6-axis robots, which enabled inspection of curved parts in approximately a 6×6×6 ft 3 active scan area. On the software side, the MSU team integrated scripts for NDE hardware control with scripts for robot motion control. MSU also implemented automated path planning for the robots, reconstruction of part’s surfaces via stereovision, 3D rendering of inspection data, and image processing algorithms for enhanced defect detection. Automotive composite parts manufactured by Plasan Composites from Phase I were used to validate the ACUT and EMT techniques on representative testbeds. Among those parts were three X-braces for a Dodge Viper, one composite calibration plaque with known defects at known locations, and four other test sections, including sections from a front splitter, a corner section from a composite hood, and a high-pressure RTM panel made using non crimp fabric. Other test samples included CFRP and GFRP calibration plates with fiber/matrix defects fabricated at MSU/CVRC.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

RNA-Puzzles Round V: blind predictions of 23 RNA structures

RNA-Puzzles is a collective endeavor dedicated to the advancement and improvement of RNA three-dimensional structure prediction. With agreement from structural biologists, RNA structures are predicted by modeling groups before publication of the experimental structures. We report a large-scale set of predictions by 18 groups for 23 RNA-Puzzles: 4 RNA elements, 2 Aptamers, 4 Viral elements, 5 Ribozymes and 8 Riboswitches. We describe automatic assessment protocols for comparisons between prediction and experiment. Our analyses reveal some critical steps to be overcome to achieve good accuracy in modeling RNA structures: identification of helix-forming pairs and of non-Watson–Crick modules, correct coaxial stacking between helices and avoidance of entanglements. Three of the top four modeling groups in this round also ranked among the top four in the CASP15 contest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗