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At least 541 records · Page 30

Exoplanet Yield Sensitivity for the Hybrid Lyot Coronagraph from end-to-end modeling for LUVOIR-A

NASA's future direct imaging flagship mission will require telescope mirror segmentation to survey a statistically significant population of nearby stellar systems by increasing aperture size beyond that achieved by traditional space-borne monolithic apertures thus far. Segmentation is a path for the size expansion, but it entails a challenge due to the introduction of temporal pupil discontinuities in terms of both phase and amplitude. Modeling of the integrated performance of the coronagraph with the expected dynamical profile of the telescope is an important step toward realistic estimates of the mission's science yields. We present results of a study using the hybrid Lyot coronagraph with a 15-m on-axis, segmented optical telescope assembly (OTA), akin to that of the Large UV / Optical /Infrared (LUVOIR) mission. We have developed a high-fidelity, end-to-end model as part of the Segmented Coronagraph Design and Analysis (SCDA) study that includes diffractive optical propagations at the 1e-10 contrast level across the optical train including the OTA and intermediate re-imaging optics inside the coronagraph instrument. We perform a sensitivity analysis to assess the contrast sensitivity to wavefront perturbations for a set of key telescope terms including segment-level low-order and mid-spatial frequency aberrations and evaluate expected exoplanet yields obtained in the presence of these sets of aberrations. Industry-provided segment-level wavefront aberration datasets involving the following mechanisms are input to the end-to-end model: (1) thermal gradients and accelerations, and (2) telescope dynamics including line-of-sight and segment jitter. Dynamically averaged PSFs in the presence of aberrations are fed into AYO (Altruistic Yield Optimization), a mission design reference simulator, that then assesses the scientific yield sensitivities.

high-contrast imaging↗

Strong Sensitivity of the Isotopic Composition of Methane to the Plausible Range of Tropospheric Chlorine

The C-13 isotopic ratio of methane, δC-13 of CH4, provides additional constraints on the CH4 budget to complement the constraints from CH4 observations. The interpretation of δC-13 observations is complicated, however, by uncertainties in the methane sink. The reaction of CH4 with Cl is highly fractionating, increasing the relative abundance of 13CH4, but there is currently no consensus on the strength of the tropospheric Cl sink. Global model simulations of halogen chemistry differ strongly from one another in terms of both the magnitude of tropospheric Cl and its geographic distribution. This study explores the impact of the inter-model diversity in Cl fields on the simulated δC-13 of CH4. We use a set of GEOS global model simulations with different predicted Cl fields to test the sensitivity of the δC-13 of CH4 to the diversity of Cl output from chemical transport models. We find that δC-13 is highly sensitive to both the amount and geographic distribution of Cl. Simulations with Cl providing 0.28% or 0.66% of the total CH4 loss bracket the δC-13 observations for a fixed set of emissions. Thus, even when Cl provides only a small fraction of the total CH4 loss and has a small impact on total CH4, it provides a strong lever on δC-13. Consequently, it is possible to achieve a good representation of total CH4 using widely different Cl concentrations, but the partitioning of CH4 loss between the OH and Cl reactions leads to strong differences in isotopic composition depending on which model’s Cl field is used. Comparing multiple simulations, we find that altering the tropospheric Cl field leads to approximately a 0.5‰ increase in δ(13)CH4for each percent increase in how much CH4 is oxidized by Cl. The geographic distribution and seasonal cycle of Cl also impacts the hemispheric gradient and seasonal cycle of δC-13. The large effect of Cl on δC-13 compared to total CH4 broadens the range of CH4 source mixtures that can be reconciled with δC-13 observations. Stronger constraints on tropospheric Cl are necessary to improve estimates of CH4 sources from δC-13 observations.

Global model simulations of halogen chemistry↗

A Monte Carlo study of parameters affecting computer simulations of crater saturation density

Computer models of cratered surfaces often use inputs of uncertain nature and importance. This work evaluates the sensitivity of the resulting crater-saturation estimates to the input parameters, principally applicable to the study of craters upward from 8 km diameter. In order of decreasing importance, crater saturation simulations are found to be sensitive to: (1) the dynamic range of crater diameters used, (2) the effectiveness of ejecta-blanket obliteration assumed, and (3) the number of points taken to describe the crater rim. The size of the largest crater in proportion to the size of the simulated surface has no effect on the results when the edges of the simulated surface are correctly treated and craters are not counted simply by integers. Craters should be counted by their fractions lying within the simulated area. A similar procedure is recommended when gathering crater size-density data from images.

Woronow, A.↗

Integration of Wind Turbine Generation (WTG) into utility generating systems

In order to obtain information required for the economical integration of wind turbine generation into utility systems, performance simulations of the MOD-2 turbine were conducted. The sensitivity of the utility-cost-of-generation to wind turbine performance models and the accuracy of wind velocity forecasts was analyzed. Four different simulation methods were used and the characteristics of each are discussed.

Mccabe, T. F.↗

Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulations of a Swept Wing with Leading-Edge Ice

The aerodynamic performance of a swept wing derived from the Common Research Model wing with high-fidelity and smooth leading-edge ice shapes is evaluated using wall-modeled large-eddy simulations. Two mesh paradigms are considered within the Launch, Ascent, and Vehicle Aerodynamics framework: structured hybrid curvilinear body-fitted/immersed-boundary and unstructured Voronoi. The curvilinear approach models the effect of the ice on the flow through penalty terms and the Voronoi strategy includes the ice representation directly in the mesh.Aerodynamic loads, surface pressure profiles, and skin-friction streamlines are compared against experimental results collected at the Wichita State University wind tunnel at a Mach number of 0.18 and a Reynolds number per mean aerodynamic chord of 1.6 million. For the curvilinear simulations with high-fidelity ice, results are sensitive to spanwise mesh resolution near the leading edge, where insufficient spanwise resolution leads to a spanwise running vortexaft of the high-fidelity ice, which is partially removed with increasing spanwise resolution. For the Voronoi simulations with high-fidelity ice, refining the mesh led to good convergence towards the experimental results with the best case demonstrating a maximum discrepancy of three lift counts relative to the experiment across a range of angles of attack from about 5 to 24 degrees, validating the shrink-wrapping procedure used for the ice. For the smooth ice, the curvilinear approach consistently under-predicted the upper surface suction leading to an under-prediction in lift, but did not demonstrate the pronounced over-prediction in upper surface suction near the leading edge observed in the Voronoi simulations.

AATT↗

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

glaciology↗

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

The use of variograms in remote sensing. I - Scene models and simulated images. II - Real digital images

Theoretical and empirical studies of variograms are presented. The sensitivity of variograms is studied through varyig parameters of scene models both in calculating explicit variograms and in simulating images. It is found that the heights of variograms are related to the proportion of an area covered by objects. It is shown that the range of influence of a variogram is related to the size of the objects in the scene and that the shape of the variogram becomes more rounded as the variance in the size distribution of objects increases. In the second part, empirically calculated variograms from real digital images are used to demonstrate these theoretical findings. These calculated variograms also show the periodicity in ground scenes and reveal anisotropy.

Woodcock, Curtis E.↗

F-14 modeling study

Preliminary results in the application of a closed loop pilot/simulator model to the analysis of some simulator fidelity issues are discussed in the context of an air to air target tracking task. The closed loop model is described briefly. Then, problem simplifications that are employed to reduce computational costs are discussed. Finally, model results showing sensitivity of performance to various assumptions concerning the simulator and/or the pilot are presented.

Levison, W. H.↗

Effects of climate and lifeform on dry matter yield (epsilon) from simulations using BIOME BGC

An ecosystem process simulation model, BIOME-BGC, is used in a sensitivity analysis to determine the factors that may cause the dry matter yield (epsilon) and annual net primary production to vary for different ecosystems. At continental scales, epsilon is strongly correlated with annual precipitation. At a single location, year-to-year variation in net primary production (NPP) and epsilon is correlated with either annual precipitation or minimum air temperatures. Simulations indicate that forests have lower epsilon than grasslands. The most sensitive parameter affecting forest epsilon is the total amount of living woody biomass, which affects NPP by increasing carbon loss by maintenance respiration. A global map of woody biomass should significantly improve estimates of global NPP using remote sensing.

Hunt, E. R., Jr.↗

Man-systems evaluation of moving base vehicle simulation motion cues

A motion cue investigation program is reported that deals with human factor aspects of high fidelity vehicle simulation. General data on non-visual motion thresholds and specific threshold values are established for use as washout parameters in vehicle simulation. A general purpose similator is used to test the contradictory cue hypothesis that acceleration sensitivity is reduced during a vehicle control task involving visual feedback. The simulator provides varying acceleration levels. The method of forced choice is based on the theory of signal detect ability.

Kirkpatrick, M.↗

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real‐world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near‐surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy‐induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.

T B Richardson↗

Modeling regulation of cardiac KATP and L-type Ca2+ currents by ATP, ADP, and Mg2+

Changes in cytosolic free Mg(2+) and adenosine nucleotide phosphates affect cardiac excitability and contractility. To investigate how modulation by Mg(2+), ATP, and ADP of K(ATP) and L-type Ca(2+) channels influences excitation-contraction coupling, we incorporated equations for intracellular ATP and MgADP regulation of the K(ATP) current and MgATP regulation of the L-type Ca(2+) current in an ionic-metabolic model of the canine ventricular myocyte. The new model: 1), quantitatively reproduces a dose-response relationship for the effects of changes in ATP on K(ATP) current, 2), simulates effects of ADP in modulating ATP sensitivity of K(ATP) channel, 3), predicts activation of Ca(2+) current during rapid increase in MgATP, and 4), demonstrates that decreased ATP/ADP ratio with normal total Mg(2+) or increased free Mg(2+) with normal ATP and ADP activate K(ATP) current, shorten action potential, and alter ionic currents and intracellular Ca(2+) signals. The model predictions are in agreement with experimental data measured under normal and a variety of pathological conditions.

Validation Studies↗

The earth's radiation budget and its relation to atmospheric hydrology. III - Comparison of observations over the oceans with a GCM

The ability of the Colorado State University general circulation model (GCM) to simulate interactions between the hydrological cycle and the radiative processes on earth was examined by comparing various sensitivity relationships established by the model with those observed on earth, and the observed and calculated seasonal cycles of the greenhouse effect and cloud radiative forcing. Results showed that, although the GCM model used was able to simulate well some aspects of the observed sensitivities, there were many serious quantitative differences, including problems in the simulation of the column vapor in the tropics and an excessively strong clear-sky greenhouse effect in the mid-latitudes. These differences led to an underestimation by the model of the sensitivity of the clear-sky greenhouse to changes in sea surface temperature.

Stephens, Graeme L.↗

Performance Characteristics of a Boundary Layer Ingesting Inlet - Distortion Tolerant Fan Through CFD Code Coupling

A method of constructing a high-fidelity simulation using two NASA CFD codes, Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA), which is the general-purpose solver, and a turbomachinery specific code NASA-TURBO (TURBO), will be presented. Validation of the code coupling is performed through comparison to experimental data obtained in the 2017 wind tunnel test of NASA’s Boundary Layer Ingesting Inlet - Distortion Tolerant Fan (BLI2DTF). For the simulation, the external flow field is computed by LAVA utilizing a steady-state Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methodology. Data from LAVA is exchanged with TURBO, which simulated the propulsor utilizing an unsteady-RANS methodology. A sensitivity analysis is performed using averaged and instantaneous data transfer between the two codes, as well as varying the amount of simulation time TURBO computes between updates. The results of the coupled simulations appear to replicate the BLI2DTF experiment correctly. Static pressure taps leading into and around the nacelle, total pressure ratio and efficiency of the propulsor, and profiles of total temperature, pressure, and Mach number at the rear measurement plane, aft of the propulsor, are in good agreement with experimental data. These results provide confidence that the coupled simulation is behaving in a physically realizable manner.

CFD↗

A comparison of rating scale, secondary-task, physiological, and primary-task workload estimation techniques in a simulated flight task emphasizing communications load

Sixteen potential metrics of pilot mental workload were investigated regarding their sensitivity to communication load and their intrusion on primary-task performance. A moving-base flight simulator was used to present three cross-country flights. The flights varied only in the difficulty of the communications requirements. Rating scale measures were obtained immediately postflight; all others were taken over a 7-min segment of the flight task. The results indicated that both the Modified Cooper-Harper Scale and the workload Multi-descriptor Scale were sensitive to changes in communications load. The secondary-task measure of time estimation and the physiological measure of pupil diameter were also sensitive. As expected, those primary-task measures that were direct measures of communicative performance were also sensitive to load, whereas aicraft control primary-task measures were not, attesting to the task specificity of such measures. Finally, the intrusion analysis revealed no differential interference between workload measures.

Casali, J. G.↗

An Extensible Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2-CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations are analyzed and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi- dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that using PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2-CAM6 PPE is publicly available, and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g. coupling to the land surface).

Machine learning↗

Observational Constraint on Cloud Susceptibility Weakened by Aerosol Retrieval Limitations

Aerosol-cloud interactions remain a major uncertainty in climate research. Studies have indicated that model estimates of cloud susceptibility to aerosols frequently exceed satellite estimates, motivating model reformulations to increase agreement. Here we show that conventional ways of using satellite information to estimate susceptibility can serve as only a weak constraint on models because the estimation is sensitive to errors in the retrieval procedures. Using instrument simulators to investigate differences between model and satellite estimates of susceptibilities, we find that low aerosol loading conditions are not well characterized by satellites, but model clouds are sensitive to aerosol perturbations in these conditions. We quantify the observational requirements needed to constrain models, and find that the nighttime lidar measurements of aerosols provide a better characterization of ten- uous aerosols. We conclude that observational uncertainties and limitations need to be accounted for when assessing the role of aerosols in the climate system.

Ma, Po-Lun↗