SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Secure by Design”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 541 records · Page 30

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2006

Valve Health Monitoring System Utilizing Smart Instrumentation

The valve monitoring system is a stand alone unit with network capabilities for integration into a higher level health management system. The system is designed for aiding in failure predictions of high-geared ball valves and linearly actuated valves. It performs data tracking and archiving for identifying degraded performance. The data collection types are cryogenic cycles, total cycles, inlet temperature, body temperature torsional strain, linear bonnet strain, preload position, total travel and total directional changes. Events are recorded and time stamped in accordance with the IRIG B True Time. The monitoring system is designed for use in a Class 1 Division II explosive environment. The basic configuration consists of several instrumentation sensor units and a base station. The sensor units are self contained microprocessor controlled and remotely mountable in three by three by two inches. Each unit is potted in a fire retardant substance without any cavities and limited to low operating power for maintaining safe operation in a hydrogen environment. The units are temperature monitored to safeguard against operation outside temperature limitations. Each contains 902-928 MHz band digital transmitters which meet Federal Communication Commission's requirements and are limited to a 35 foot transmission radius for preserving data security. The base-station controller correlates data from the sensor units and generates data event logs on a compact flash memory module for database uploading. The entries are also broadcast over an Ethernet network. Nitrogen purged National Electrical Manufactures Association (NEMA) Class 4 enclosures are used to house the base-station

Jensen, Scott L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Post-Shuttle EVA Operations on ISS

The expected retirement of the NASA Space Transportation System (also known as the Space Shuttle ) by 2011 will pose a significant challenge to Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVA) on-board the International Space Station (ISS). The EVA hardware currently used to assemble and maintain the ISS was designed assuming that it would be returned to Earth on the Space Shuttle for refurbishment, or if necessary for failure investigation. With the retirement of the Space Shuttle, a new concept of operations was developed to enable EVA hardware (Extra-vehicular Mobility Unit (EMU), Airlock Systems, EVA tools, and associated support hardware and consumables) to perform ISS EVAs until 2015, and possibly beyond to 2020. Shortly after the decision to retire the Space Shuttle was announced, the EVA 2010 Project was jointly initiated by NASA and the One EVA contractor team. The challenges addressed were to extend the operating life and certification of EVA hardware, to secure the capability to launch EVA hardware safely on alternate launch vehicles, to protect for EMU hardware operability on-orbit, and to determine the source of high water purity to support recharge of PLSSs (no longer available via Shuttle). EVA 2010 Project includes the following tasks: the development of a launch fixture that would allow the EMU Portable Life Support System (PLSS) to be launched on-board alternate vehicles; extension of the EMU hardware maintenance interval from 3 years (current certification) to a minimum of 6 years (to extend to 2015); testing of recycled ISS Water Processor Assembly (WPA) water for use in the EMU cooling system in lieu of water resupplied by International Partner (IP) vehicles; development of techniques to remove & replace critical components in the PLSS on-orbit (not routine); extension of on-orbit certification of EVA tools; and development of an EVA hardware logistical plan to support the ISS without the Space Shuttle. Assumptions for the EVA 2010 Project included no more than 8 EVAs per year for ISS EVA operations in the Post-Shuttle environment and limited availability of cargo upmass on IP launch vehicles. From 2010 forward, EVA operations on-board the ISS without the Space Shuttle will be a paradigm shift in safely operating EVA hardware on orbit and the EVA 2010 effort was initiated to accommodate this significant change in EVA evolutionary history. 1

West, William↗

NASA NTRS2018

The OSIRIS-REx Spacecraft and the Touch-and-Go Sample Acquisition Mechanism (TAGSAM)

The Origins, Spectral-Interpretation, Resource-Identification, Security and Regolith- Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) spacecraft supports all aspects of the mission science objectives, from extensive remote sensing at the asteroid Bennu, to sample collection and return to Earth. In general, the success of planetary missions requires the collection, return, and analysis of data, which in turn depends on the successful operation of instruments and the host spacecraft. In the case of OSIRIS-REx, a sample-return mission, the spacecraft must also support the acquisition, safe stowage, and return of the sample. The target asteroid is Bennu, a B-class near-Earth asteroid roughly 500 m diameter. The Lockheed Martin-designed and developed OSIRIS-REx spacecraft draws significant heritage from previous missions and features the Touch-and-Go-Sample-Acquisition-Mechanism, or TAGSAM, to collect sample from the surface of Bennu. Lockheed Martin developed TAGSAM as a novel, simple way to collect samples on planetary bodies. During short contact with the asteroid surface, TAGSAM releases curation-grade nitrogen gas, mobilizing the surface regolith into a collection chamber. The contact surface of TAGSAM includes "contact pads", which are present to collect surface grains that have been subject to space weathering. Extensive 1-g laboratory testing, "reduced-gravity" testing (via parabolic flights on an airplane), and analysis demonstrate that TAGSAM will collect asteroid material in nominal conditions, and a variety of off-nominal conditions, such as the presence of large obstacles under the TAGSAM sampling head, or failure in the sampling gas firing. TAGSAM, and the spacecraft support of the instruments, are central to the success of the mission.

Spacecraft↗

NASA NTRS2005

Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) Flight Software (FSW): A Unique Approach to Exercise in Long Duration Habitats

ARED flight instrumentation software is associated with an overall custom designed resistive exercise system that will be deployed on the International Space Station (ISS). This innovative software application fuses together many diverse and new technologies into a robust and usable package. The software takes advantage of touchscreen user interface technology by providing a graphical user interface on a Windows based tablet PC, meeting a design constraint of keyboard-less interaction with flight crewmembers. The software interacts with modified commercial data acquisition (DAQ) hardware to acquire multiple channels of sensor measurment from the ARED device. This information is recorded on the tablet PC and made available, via International Space Station (ISS) Wireless LAN (WLAN) and telemetry subsystems, to ground based mission medics and trainers for analysis. The software includes a feature to accept electronically encoded prescriptions of exercises that guide crewmembers through a customized regimen of resistive weight training, based on personal analysis. These electronically encoded prescriptions are provided to the crew via ISS WLAN and telemetry subsystems. All personal data is securely associated with an individual crew member, based on a PIN ID mechanism.

Mangieri, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2008

Proven and Robust Ground Support Systems - GSFC Success and Lessons Learned

Over the past fifteen years, Goddard Space Flight Center has developed several successful science missions in-house: the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE), the Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) [1], and the Space Technology 5 (ST-5)[2] missions, several Small Explorers, and several balloon missions. Currently in development are the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) [3] and the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO)[4]. What is not well known is that these missions have been supported during spacecraft and/or instrument integration and test, flight software development, and mission operations by two in house satellite Telemetry and Command (T & C) Systems, the Integrated Test and Operations System (ITOS) and the Advanced Spacecraft Integration and System Test (ASIST). The advantages of an in-house satellite Telemetry and Command system are primarily in the flexibility of management and maintenance - the developers are considered a part of the mission team, get involved early in the development process of the spacecraft and mission operations-control center, and provide on-site, on-call support that goes beyond Help Desk and simple software fixes. On the other hand, care must be taken to ensure that the system remains generic enough for cost effective re-use from one mission to the next. The software is designed such that many features are user-configurable. Where user-configurable options were impractical, features were designed so as to be easy for the development team to modify. Adding support for a new ground message header, for example, is a one-day effort because of the software framework on which that code rests. This paper will discuss the many features of the Goddard satellite Telemetry and Command systems that have contributed to the success of the missions listed above. These features include flexible user interfaces, distributed parallel commanding and telemetry decommutation, a procedure language, the interfaces and tools needed for a high degree of automation, and instantly accessible archives of spacecraft telemetry. It will discuss some of the problems overcome during development, including secure commanding over networks or the Internet, constellation support for the three satellites that comprise the ST-5 mission, and geographically distributed telemetry end users.

Pfarr, Barbara↗

NASA NTRS2025

Provider of Services for Urban Air Mobility (PSU) Prototype Simulation (X5) Final Report

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is a new air transportation service concept to carry passengers or cargo in metropolitan areas, leveraged by innovative aircraft and air traffic automation technologies. NASA has conducted a series of simulations, called the X-series simulation, to evaluate the UAM concept of operations and support the development of airspace procedures and services for UAM operations. The simulation called “X5” was conducted in 2023 to test a Provider of Services for UAM (PSU) prototype developed by NASA for UAM flight planning, strategic conflict management support, and data exchange between UAM operators. In this simulation, two strategic conflict management capabilities, Demand-Capacity Balancing and Sequencing and Scheduling, were further investigated. This document describes the UAM system architecture modeled, the X5 simulation environment to be executed (e.g., traffic scenario and UAM airspace construct), and the strategic conflict management processes developed and evaluated in this study. Then, the simulation results are provided using several system performance metrics, such as the number of operations planned and activated, demand-capacity imbalances detected and resolved, and pre-departure delays. Based on these metrics, the test findings and lessons learned from this simulation are discussed. NASA developed a PSU prototype as part of a reference implementation of UAM system architecture and evolved strategic conflict management capabilities for UAM operations from the previous collaborative simulations with industry partners. Below is the summary of the achievements: - Aligned NASA’s UAM reference architecture with the FAA’s UAM ConOps notional architecture - Extended UAM airspace management capabilities to include 1) Demand-Capacity Balancing (DCB) to ensure operators coordinate planned usage of shared vertiports, and 2) Sequencing and Scheduling (S&S) at UAM corridor entry and exit points to help facilitate an orderly flow of traffic - Defined the PSU information exchange APIs and requirements towards informing industry standards - Developed and tested a NASA PSU prototype as reference implementation to validate the requirements and APIs - Developed a prototype service connecting NASA’s PSU and the FAA system for testing future PSU-ATM interface requirements - Tested NASA-developed assumptions for UAM operations such as airspace design, procedures, vehicle performance, and strategic conflict management methods to inform future Cooperative Operating Practices (COPs) development with industry - Evaluated system performance metrics such as number of simultaneous operations and ground delays that can help define system-level requirements. The simulation results showed that the UAM traffic demand could be managed to minimize the needs of tactical separation provision with ground delays assigned by DCB and S&S. These accomplishments and the lessons learned from the PSU Prototype X5 simulation activities will be valuable inputs for the Air Mobility Pathfinders (AMP) project, which is NASA’s new project to create and evaluate a reference architecture for safe, secure, and scalable UAM operations.

Simulation↗

NASA NTRS1991

Automated power management and control

A comprehensive automation design is being developed for Space Station Freedom's electric power system. A joint effort between NASA's Office of Aeronautics and Exploration Technology and NASA's Office of Space Station Freedom, it strives to increase station productivity by applying expert systems and conventional algorithms to automate power system operation. The initial station operation will use ground-based dispatches to perform the necessary command and control tasks. These tasks constitute planning and decision-making activities that strive to eliminate unplanned outages. We perceive an opportunity to help these dispatchers make fast and consistent on-line decisions by automating three key tasks: failure detection and diagnosis, resource scheduling, and security analysis. Expert systems will be used for the diagnostics and for the security analysis; conventional algorithms will be used for the resource scheduling.

Dolce, James L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

United States Human Access to Space, Exploration of the Moon and Preparation for Mars Exploration

In the past, men like Leonardo da Vinci and Jules Verne imagined the future and envisioned fantastic inventions such as winged flying machines, submarines, and parachutes, and posited human adventures like transoceanic flight and journeys to the Moon. Today, many of their ideas are reality and form the basis for our modern world. While individual visionaries like da Vinci and Verne are remembered for the accuracy of their predictions, today entire nations are involved in the process of envisioning and defining the future development of mankind, both on and beyond the Earth itself. Recently, Russian, European, and Chinese teams have all announced plans for developing their own next generation human space vehicles. The Chinese have announced their intention to conduct human lunar exploration, and have flown three crewed space missions since 2003, including a flight with three crew members to test their extravehicular (spacewalking) capabilities in September 2008. Very soon, the prestige, economic development, scientific discovery, and strategic security advantage historically associated with leadership in space exploration and exploitation may no longer be the undisputed province of the United States. Much like the sponsors of the seafaring explorers of da Vinci's age, we are motivated by the opportunity to obtain new knowledge and new resources for the growth and development of our own civilization. NASA's new Constellation Program, established in 2005, is tasked with maintaining the United States leadership in space, exploring the Moon, creating a sustained human lunar presence, and eventually extending human operations to Mars and beyond. Through 2008, the Constellation Program developed a full set of detailed program requirements and is now completing the preliminary design phase for the new Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle, and the associated infrastructure necessary for humans to explore the Moon. Component testing is well underway, and integrated flight testing will begin in 2009. This white paper summarizes 3 years of Constellation Program progress and accomplishments, and it describes the foundation set for human lunar return in 2020.

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Mars Science Laboratory Drill

This drill (see Figure 1) is the primary sample acquisition element of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) that collects powdered samples from various types of rock (from clays to massive basalts) at depths up to 50 mm below the surface. A rotary-percussive sample acquisition device was developed with an emphasis on toughness and robustness to handle the harsh environment on Mars. It is the first rover-based sample acquisition device to be flight-qualified (see Figure 2). This drill features an autonomous tool change-out on a mobile robot, and novel voice-coil-based percussion. The drill comprises seven subelements. Starting at the end of the drill, there is a bit assembly that cuts the rock and collects the sample. Supporting the bit is a subassembly comprising a chuck mechanism to engage and release the new and worn bits, respectively, and a spindle mechanism to rotate the bit. Just aft of that is a percussion mechanism, which generates hammer blows to break the rock and create the dynamic environment used to flow the powdered sample. These components are mounted to a translation mechanism, which provides linear motion and senses weight-on-bit with a force sensor. There is a passive-contact sensor/stabilizer mechanism that secures the drill fs position on the rock surface, and flex harness management hardware to provide the power and signals to the translating components. The drill housing serves as the primary structure of the turret, to which the additional tools and instruments are attached. The drill bit assembly (DBA) is a passive device that is rotated and hammered in order to cut rock (i.e. science targets) and collect the cuttings (powder) in a sample chamber until ready for transfer to the CHIMRA (Collection and Handling for Interior Martian Rock Analysis). The DBA consists of a 5/8-in. (.1.6- cm) commercial hammer drill bit whose shank has been turned down and machined with deep flutes designed for aggressive cutting removal. Surrounding the shank of the bit is a thick-walled maraging steel collection tube allowing the powdered sample to be augured up the hole into the sample chamber. For robustness, the wall thickness of the DBA was maximized while still ensuring effective sample collection. There are four recesses in the bit tube that are used to retain the fresh bits in their bit box. The rotating bit is supported by a back-to-back duplex bearing pair within a housing that is connected to the outer DBA housing by two titanium diaphragms. The only bearings on the drill in the sample flow are protected by a spring-energized seal, and an integrated shield that diverts the ingested powdered sample from the moving interface. The DBA diaphragms provide radial constraint of the rotating bit and form the sample chambers. Between the diaphragms there is a sample exit tube from which the sample is transferred to the CHIMRA. To ensure that the entire collected sample is retained, no matter the orientation of the drill with respect to gravity during sampling, the pass-through from the forward to the aft chamber resides opposite to the exit tube.

Okon, Avi B.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Emergency Lighting

A lighting system originally developed for NASA's Apollo and Skylab manned spacecraft resulted in a industrial spinoff and creation of a whole new company to produce and market the product line. The company is UDEC Corp., Waltham, Mass. UDEC's "Multi-Mode" electronic lighting systems are designed for plant emergency and supplemental use, such as night lighting, "always-on" stairwell lights and illuminated exit signs. Their advantages stem from the qualities demanded for spacecraft installation: extremely high fight output with very low energy drain, compactness, light weight, and high reliability. The Multi-Mode system includes long-life fluorescent lamps operated by electronic circuitry, a sealed battery that needs no maintenance for 10 years, and a solid-state battery charger. A typical emergency installation consists of a master module with battery and an eight watt lamp, together with four remote "Satellight" modules powered by the master's battery. As a night lighting system for maintenance or I security, UDEC fixtures can bypass the battery and 1 operate on normal current at a fraction of the energy 1 demand of conventional night lighting. Industrial customers have realized savings of better than ninety percent with UDEC night lights. UDEC started as a basement industry in 1972 but the company has already sold more than 1,000 lighting systems to building operators.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Impact of Trust on Organization Commitment

As the global economy continues to spawn competitive forces, organizations have sought to become more competitive by cutting costs, eliminating non-value added work, and using more automation. Jobs have become broader and more flexible leading to a leaner workforce with higher-level knowledge and skills and more responsibility for day-to-day decisions. More than ever, organizations depend on employees as the innovators and designers of products and processes and as a source of strategic advantage. Therefore employee commitment among knowledge workers is needed to maintain organizational viability. It would seem that stronger relationships due to greater dependency, involvement, and investment would develop between employers and high-technology workers resulting in more committed employees. However, the opposite has been evidenced as key knowledge workers are changing jobs frequently. This may be due to a perceived lack of commitment by management to its employees. The notion of exchange may dominate the development of organizational commitment whereby an individual decides what to give a firm (commitment, extra effort, better performance, etc.) based on what the firm gives them (e.g., trust and security). It is the relationship between an employee's organizational commitment and the responding level of trust in the organization that is examined in this paper. An experiment is described that will seek to identify this relationship. Preliminary results are expected to show a positive relationship whereby employee commitment is positively correlated with organizational trust.

Robinson, Kimberly↗

NASA NTRS1987

Design of Software for Design of Finite Element for Structural Analysis

The concepts of software engineering which allow a user of the finite element method to describe a model, to collect and to check the model data in a data base as well as to form the matrices required for a finite element calculation are examined. Next the components of the model description are conceived including the mesh tree, the topology, the configuration, the kinematic boundary conditions, the data for each element, and the loads. The possibilities for description and review of the data are considered. The concept of the segments for the modularization of the programs follows the components of the model description. The significance of the mesh tree as a globular guiding structure will be understood in view of the principle of the unity of the model, the mesh tree, and the data base. The user-friendly aspects of the software system will be summarized: the principle of language communication, the data generators, error processing, and data security.

Helfrich, Reinhard↗

NASA NTRS2001

Numerical Propulsion System Simulation: A Common Tool for Aerospace Propulsion Being Developed

The NASA Glenn Research Center is developing an advanced multidisciplinary analysis environment for aerospace propulsion systems called the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). This simulation is initially being used to support aeropropulsion in the analysis and design of aircraft engines. NPSS provides increased flexibility for the user, which reduces the total development time and cost. It is currently being extended to support the Aviation Safety Program and Advanced Space Transportation. NPSS focuses on the integration of multiple disciplines such as aerodynamics, structure, and heat transfer with numerical zooming on component codes. Zooming is the coupling of analyses at various levels of detail. NPSS development includes using the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) in the NPSS Developer's Kit to facilitate collaborative engineering. The NPSS Developer's Kit will provide the tools to develop custom components and to use the CORBA capability for zooming to higher fidelity codes, coupling to multidiscipline codes, transmitting secure data, and distributing simulations across different platforms. These powerful capabilities will extend NPSS from a zero-dimensional simulation tool to a multifidelity, multidiscipline system-level simulation tool for the full life cycle of an engine.

Follen, Gregory J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Maintaining Situation Awareness with Autonomous Airborne Observation Platforms

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) offer tremendous potential as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms for early detection of security threats and for acquisition and maintenance of situation awareness in crisis conditions. However, using their capabilities effectively requires addressing a range of practical and theoretical problems. The paper will describe progress by the "Autonomous Rotorcraft Project," a collaborative effort between NASA and the U.S. Army to develop a practical, flexible capability for UAV-based ISR. Important facets of the project include optimization methods for allocating scarce aircraft resources to observe numerous, distinct sites of interest; intelligent flight automation software than integrates high-level plan generation capabilities with executive control, failure response and flight control functions; a system architecture supporting reconfiguration of onboard sensors to address different kinds of threats; and an advanced prototype vehicle designed to allow large-scale production at low cost. The paper will also address human interaction issues including an empirical method for determining how to allocate roles and responsibilities between flight automation and human operations.

Freed, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1991

HYMOSS signal processing for pushbroom spectral imaging

The objective of the Pushbroom Spectral Imaging Program was to develop on-focal plane electronics which compensate for detector array non-uniformities. The approach taken was to implement a simple two point calibration algorithm on focal plane which allows for offset and linear gain correction. The key on focal plane features which made this technique feasible was the use of a high quality transimpedance amplifier (TIA) and an analog-to-digital converter for each detector channel. Gain compensation is accomplished by varying the feedback capacitance of the integrate and dump TIA. Offset correction is performed by storing offsets in a special on focal plane offset register and digitally subtracting the offsets from the readout data during the multiplexing operation. A custom integrated circuit was designed, fabricated, and tested on this program which proved that nonuniformity compensated, analog-to-digital converting circuits may be used to read out infrared detectors. Irvine Sensors Corporation (ISC) successfully demonstrated the following innovative on-focal-plane functions that allow for correction of detector non-uniformities. Most of the circuit functions demonstrated on this program are finding their way onto future IC's because of their impact on reduced downstream processing, increased focal plane performance, simplified focal plane control, reduced number of dewar connections, as well as the noise immunity of a digital interface dewar. The potential commercial applications for this integrated circuit are primarily in imaging systems. These imaging systems may be used for: security monitoring systems, manufacturing process monitoring, robotics, and for spectral imaging when used in analytical instrumentation.

Ludwig, David E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Extending a Flight Management Computer for Simulation and Flight Experiments

In modern transport aircraft, the flight management computer (FMC) has evolved from a flight planning aid to an important hub for pilot information and origin-to-destination optimization of flight performance. Current trends indicate increasing roles of the FMC in aviation safety, aviation security, increasing airport capacity, and improving environmental impact from aircraft. Related research conducted at the Langley Research Center (LaRC) often requires functional extension of a modern, full-featured FMC. Ideally, transport simulations would include an FMC simulation that could be tailored and extended for experiments. However, due to the complexity of a modern FMC, a large investment (millions of dollars over several years) and scarce domain knowledge are needed to create such a simulation for transport aircraft. As an intermediate alternative, the Flight Research Services Directorate (FRSD) at LaRC created a set of reusable software products to extend flight management functionality upstream of a Boeing-757 FMC, transparently simulating or sharing its operator interfaces. The paper details the design of these products and highlights their use on NASA projects.

Madden, Michael M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

'The surface management system' (SuMS) database: a surface-based database to aid cortical surface reconstruction, visualization and analysis

Surface reconstructions of the cerebral cortex are increasingly widely used in the analysis and visualization of cortical structure, function and connectivity. From a neuroinformatics perspective, dealing with surface-related data poses a number of challenges. These include the multiplicity of configurations in which surfaces are routinely viewed (e.g. inflated maps, spheres and flat maps), plus the diversity of experimental data that can be represented on any given surface. To address these challenges, we have developed a surface management system (SuMS) that allows automated storage and retrieval of complex surface-related datasets. SuMS provides a systematic framework for the classification, storage and retrieval of many types of surface-related data and associated volume data. Within this classification framework, it serves as a version-control system capable of handling large numbers of surface and volume datasets. With built-in database management system support, SuMS provides rapid search and retrieval capabilities across all the datasets, while also incorporating multiple security levels to regulate access. SuMS is implemented in Java and can be accessed via a Web interface (WebSuMS) or using downloaded client software. Thus, SuMS is well positioned to act as a multiplatform, multi-user 'surface request broker' for the neuroscience community.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS2015

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

Variability↗