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At least 541 records · Page 30

Regression Analysis of Long-Term Profile Ozone Data Set from BUV Instruments

We have produced a profile merged ozone data set (MOD) based on the SBUV/SBUV2 series of nadir-viewing satellite backscatter instruments, covering the period from November 1978 - December 2003. In 2004, data from the Nimbus 7 SBUV and NOAA 9, ll, and 16 SBUV/2 instruments were reprocessed using the Version 8 (V8) algorithm and most recent calibrations. More recently, data from the Nimbus 4 BUT instrument, which was operational from 1970 - 1977, were also reprocessed using the V8 algorithm. As part of the V8 profile calibration, the Nimbus 7 and NOAA 9 (1993-1997 only) instrument calibrations have been adjusted to match the NOAA 11 calibration, which was established based on comparisons with SSBUV shuttle flight data. Differences between NOAA 11, Nimbus 7 and NOAA 9 profile zonal means are within plus or minus 5% at all levels when averaged over the respective periods of data overlap. NOAA 16 SBUV/2 data have insufficient overlap with NOAA 11, so its calibration is based on pre-flight information. Mean differences over 4 months of overlap are within plus or minus 7%. Given the level of agreement between the data sets, we simply average the ozone values during periods of instrument overlap to produce the MOD profile data set. Initial comparisons of coincident matches of N4 BUV and Arosa Umkehr data show mean differences of 0.5 (0.5)% at 30km; 7.5 (0.5)% at 35 km; and 11 (0.7)% at 40 km, where the number in parentheses is the standard error of the mean. In this study, we use the MOD profile data set (1978-2003) to estimate the change in profile ozone due to changing stratospheric chlorine levels. We use a standard linear regression model with proxies for the seasonal cycle, solar cycle, QBO, and ozone trend. To account for the non-linearity of stratospheric chlorine levels since the late 1990s, we use a time series of Effective Chlorine, defined as the global average of Chlorine + 50 * Bromine at 1 hPa, as the trend proxy. The Effective Chlorine data are taken from the 3-D Goddard CTM. We will show the latest trend results using this statistical model. In addition, the Nimbus 4 BUV data offer an opportunity to test the physical properties of our statistical model. From ground-based comparisons we will establish an uncertainty range for the Nimbus 4 data. We then extrapolate our statistical model fit backwards in time and compare to the Nimbus 4 data. We compare the characteristics of the residual, defined as the difference between the data and statistical regression fit, during the Nimbus 4 time period and the 1978-2003 period over which the statistical model coefficients were estimated, and present these results.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

(abstract) Seasonal Variability in Coastal Upwelling: A Comparison of Four Coastal Upwelling Sites from Space

Coastal upwelling of subsurface nutrient-rich water occurs along the eastern boundary of the ocean basins and leads to high primary production and fish catches. In this study satellite observations are used to compare the seasonal cycle in wind forcing and in the oceanic and biological response of the major coastal upwelling regions associated with the Canary, Benguela, California, and Humboldt Currents.

Current California Current Canary Current Benguela↗

Monitoring CO2 sources and sinks from space : the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) Mission

NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) will make the first space-based measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) with the precision, resolution, and coverage needed to characterize the geographic distribution of CO2 sources and sinks and quantify their variability over the seasonal cycle. OCO is currently scheduled for launch in 2008. The observatory will carry a single instrument that incorporates three high-resolution grating spectrometers designed to measure the near-infrared absorption by CO2 and molecular oxygen (O2) in reflected sunlight. OCO will fly 12 minutes ahead of the EOS Aqua platform in the Earth Observing System (EOS) Afternoon Constellation (A-Train). The in-strument will collect 12 to 24 soundings per second as the Observatory moves along its orbit track on the day side of the Earth. A small sampling footprint (<3 km2 at nadir) was adopted to reduce biases in each sounding associated with clouds and aerosols and spatial variations in surface topography. A comprehensive ground-based validation program will be used to assess random errors and biases in the XCO2 product on regional to continental scales. Measurements collected by OCO will be assimilated with other environmental measurements to retrieve surface sources and sinks of CO2. This information could play an important role in monitoring the integrity of large scale CO2 sequestration projects.

carbon dioxide sources and sinks↗

The Kepler Mission: A Mission to Determine the Frequency of Inner Planets Near the Habitable Zone of a Wide Range of Stars

The surprising discovery of giant planets in inner orbits around solar-like stars has brought into question our understanding of the development and evolution of planetary systems, including our solar system. To make further progress, it is critical to detect and obtain data on the frequency and characteristics of Earth-class planets. The Kepler Mission is designed to be a quick, low-cost approach to accomplish that objective. Transits by Earth-class planets produce a fractional change. in stellar brightness of 5 x 10(exp -5) to 40 x 10(exp -5) lasting for 4 to 16 hours. From the period and depth of the transits, the orbit and size of the planets can be calculated. The proposed instrument is a one-meter aperture photometer with a 12 deg. field-of-view (FOV). To obtain the required precision and to avoid interruptions caused by day-night and seasonal cycles, the photometer will be launched into a heliocentric orbit. It will continuously and simultaneously monitor the flux from 80,000 dwarf stars brighter than 14th magnitude in the Cygnus constellation. The mission tests the hypothesis that the formation of most stars produces Earth-class planets in inner orbits. Based on this assumption and the recent observations that 2% of the stars have giant planets in inner orbits, several types of results are expected from the mission: 1. From transits of Earth-class planets, about 480 planet detections and 60 cases where two or more planets are found in the same system. 2. From transits of giant planets, about 160 detections of inner-orbit planets and 24 detections of outer-orbit planets. 3. From the phase modulation of the reflected light from giant planets, about 1400 planet detections with periods less than a week, albedos for 160 of these giant planets, and densities for seven planets.

Borucki, W. J.↗

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory: Mission Overview

OCO will acquire the space-based data needed to identify CO2 sources and sinks and quantify their variability over the seasonal cycle. Approach: a) Collect spatially resolved, high resolution spectroscopic observations of CO2 and O2 absorption in reflected sunlight; b) Use these data to resolve spatial and temporal variations in the column averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction, X cub CO2) over the sunlit hemisphere; and c) Employ independent calibration and validation approaches to produce X(sub CO2) estimates with random errors and biases no larger than 1-2 ppm (0.3-0.5%) on regional scales at monthly intervals.

CO2↗

Measurements of Nitrogen Dioxide Total Column Amounts using a Brewer Double Spectrophotometer in Direct Sun Mode

NO2 column amounts were measured for the past 2 years at Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, using a Brewer spectrometer in direct Sun mode. A new bootstrap method to calibrate the instrument is introduced and described. This technique selects the cleanest days from the database to obtain the solar reference spectrum. The main advantage for direct Sun measurements is that the conversion uncertainty from slant column to vertical column is negligible compared to the standard scattered light observations where it is typically on the order of 100% (2sigma) at polluted sites. The total 2sigma errors of the direct Sun retrieved column amounts decrease with solar zenith angle and are estimated at 0.2 to 0.6 Dobson units (DU, 1 DU approx. equal to 2.7 10(exp 16) molecules cm(exp -2)), which is more accurate than scattered light measurements for high NO2 amounts. Measured NO2 column amounts, ranging from 0 to 3 DU with a mean of 0.7 DU, show a pronounced daily course and a strong variability from day to day. The NO2 concentration typically increases from sunrise to noon. In the afternoon it decreases in summer and stays constant in winter. As expected from the anthropogenic nature of its source, NO2 amounts on weekends are significantly reduced. The measurements were compared to satellite retrievals from Scanning Image Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY). Satellite data give the same average NO2 column and show a seasonal cycle that is similar to the ground data in the afternoon. We show that NO2 must be considered when retrieving aerosol absorption properties, especially for situations with low aerosol optical depth.

Cede, Alexander↗

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport Variability during 2003-05 from GRACE

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity data spanning January 2003-November 2005 are used as proxies for ocean bottom pressure (BP) averaged over 1 month, spherical Gaussian caps 500 km in radius, and along paths bracketing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's various fronts. The GRACE BP signals are compared with those derived from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean modeling-assimilation system, and to a non-Boussinesq version of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). The discrepancy found between GRACE and the models is 1.7 cm H2O (1 cm H2O approx. 1 hPa), slightly lower than the 1.9 cmH2O estimated by the authors independently from propagation of GRACE errors. The northern signals are weak and uncorrelated among basins. The southern signals are strong, with a common seasonality. The seasonal cycle GRACE data observed in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors of the ACC are consistent, with annual and semiannual amplitudes of 3.6 and 0.6 cmH2O (1.1 and 0.6 cm H2O with ECCO), the average over the full southern path peaks (stronger ACC) in the southern winter, on days of year 197 and 97 for the annual and semiannual components, respectively; the Atlantic Ocean annual peak is 20 days earlier. An approximate conversion factor of 3.1 Sv (Sv equiv 10(exp 6)cu m/s) of barotropic transport variability per cm H2O of BP change is estimated. Wind stress data time series from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), averaged monthly, zonally, and over the latitude band 40(deg)- 65(deg)S, are also constructed and subsampled at the same months as with the GRACE data. The annual and semiannual harmonics of the wind stress peak on days 198 and 82, respectively. A decreasing trend over the 3 yr is observed in the three data types.

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)↗

Sampling Biases in MODIS and SeaWiFS Ocean Chlorophyll Data

Although modem ocean color sensors, such as MODIS and SeaWiFS are often considered global missions, in reality it takes many days, even months, to sample the ocean surface enough to provide complete global coverage. The irregular temporal sampling of ocean color sensors can produce biases in monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates. We quantified the biases due to sampling using data assimilation to create a "truth field", which we then sub-sampled using the observational patterns of MODIS and SeaWiFS. Monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates from these sub-sampled, incomplete daily fields were constructed and compared to monthly and annual means from the complete daily fields of the assimilation model, at a spatial resolution of 1.25deg longitude by 0.67deg latitude. The results showed that global annual mean biases were positive, reaching nearly 8% (MODIS) and >5% (SeaWiFS). For perspective the maximum interannual variability in the SeaWiFS chlorophyll record was about 3%. Annual mean sampling biases were low (<3%) in the midlatitudes (between -40deg and 40deg). Low interannual variability in the global annual mean sampling biases suggested that global scale trend analyses were valid. High latitude biases were much higher than the global annual means, up to 20% as a basin annual mean, and over 80% in some months. This was the result of the high solar zenith angle exclusion in the processing algorithms. Only data where the solar angle is <75deg are permitted, in contrast to the assimilation which samples regularly over the entire area and month. High solar zenith angles do not facilitate phytoplankton photosynthesis and consequently low chlorophyll concentrations occurring here are missed by the data sets. Ocean color sensors selectively sample in locations and times of favorable phytoplankton growth, producing overestimates of chlorophyll. The biases derived from lack of sampling in the high latitudes varied monthly, leading to artifacts in the apparent seasonal cycle from ocean color sensors. A false secondary peak in chlorophyll occurred in May-August, which resulted from lack of sampling in the Antarctic.

Gregg, Watson W.↗

Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a key component of the Earth Observing System (EOS) program. The CERES instrument provides radiometric measurements of the Earth's atmosphere from three broadband channels. The CERES missions are a follow-on to the successful Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) mission. The first CERES instrument (PFM) was launched on November 27, 1997, as part of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Two CERES instruments (FM1 and FM2) were launched into polar orbit on board the EOS flagship Terra on December 18, 1999, and two additional CERES instruments (FM3 and FM4) were launched on board EOS Aqua on May 4,2002. [Mission Objectives] The scientific justification for the CERES measurements can be summarized by three assertions: (1) changes in the radiative energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system can cause long-term climate changes (e.g., carbon dioxide inducing global warming); (2) besides the systematic diurnal and seasonal cycles of incoming solar energy, changes in cloud properties (amount, height, optical thickness) cause the largest changes of the Earth's radiative energy balance; and (3) cloud physics is one of the weakest components of current climate models used to predict potential global climate change. CERES has four main objectives: 1) For climate change analysis, provide a continuation of the ERBE record of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), analyzed using the same algorithms that produced the ERBE data. 2) Double the accuracy of estimates of radiative fluxes at TOA and the Earth's surface. 3) Provide the first long-term global estimates of the radiative fluxes within the Earth's atmosphere. 4) Provide cloud property estimates that are consistent with the radiative fluxes from surface to TOA. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1997-12-27; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

Airborne Observations of the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Tropospheric Carbon Dioxide during the INTEX-B Campaign

The Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-North America (INTEX-NA) is an international field campaign envisioned to investigate the transport and transformation of gases and aerosols on transcontinental/intercontinental scales and assess their impact on air quality and climate. Phase B (INTEX-B) of the mission was conducted during a 10- week period from March 1 to May 15, 2006 and focused initially on pollution outflow from the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, later addressing the transport of pollution from Asia to North America during springtime meteorological conditions. During the deployment, fast-response (1-s resolution) CO2 measurements were recorded aboard the NASA DC-8 providing valuable regional-scale information on carbon sources and sinks over sparsely sampled areas of North America and adjacent ocean basins. When coupled with the enormously sophisticated chemistry payload on the DC-8, these measurements collectively afford extremely powerful multi-tracer constraints for carbon source/sink attribution. Preliminary examination of the two data sets from the INTEX-B campaign, acquired one month apart, reveals not only the influence of the CO2 seasonal cycle, but also the preponderance of human population and industrial activity in the northern hemisphere. In this presentation, a synergy of the ensemble of airborne and surface observations, bottomup emission inventories, as well as transport history are invoked in a GIS framework to elucidate the source/sink processes reflected in the observations. The airborne CO2 data, along with simultaneous surface measurements (e.g. NOAA ESRL), are examined to establish the vertical distribution and variability of CO2 as a function of location. The role of localized sources, long-range transport, the biosphere, stratospheric exchange, and dynamical processes on the CO2 spatial variability observed throughout the tropospheric column will be discussed.

Vay, Stephanie A.↗

Revisiting a Hydrological Analysis Framework with International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Initiative 2 Rainfall, Net Radiation, and Runoff Fields

The International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Initiative 2 (ISLSCP-2) data set provides the data needed to characterize the surface water budget across much of the globe in terms of energy availability (net radiation) and water availability (precipitation) controls. The data, on average, are shown to be consistent with Budyko s decades-old framework, thereby demonstrating the continuing relevance of Budyko s semiempirical relationships. This consistency, however, appears only when a small subset of the data with hydrologically suspicious behavior is removed from the analysis. In general, the precipitation, net radiation, and runoff data also appear consistent in their interannual variability and in the phasing of their seasonal cycles.

Koster, Randal D.↗

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) Mission

Science objectives include: Collect the first space-based measurements of atmospheric CO2 with the precision, resolution, and coverage needed to characterize its sources and sinks on regional scales and quantify their variability over the seasonal cycle. Use independent data validation approaches to ensure high accuracy (1-2 ppm, 0.3% - 0.5%). Reliable climate predictions require an improved understanding of CO2 sinks. What human and natural processes are controlling atmospheric CO2? What are the relative roles of the oceans and land ecosystems in absorbing CO2?

carbon dioxide↗

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport Variability during 2003-05 from GRACE

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity data spanning January 2003 - November 2005 are used as proxies for ocean bottom pressure (BP) averaged over 1 month, spherical Gaussian caps 500 km in radius, and along paths bracketing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's various fronts. The GRACE BP signals are compared with those derived from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean modeling-assimilation system, and to a non-Boussinesq version of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). The discrepancy found between GRACE and the models is 1.7 cm(sub H2O) (1 cm(sub H2O) similar to 1 hPa), slightly lower than the 1.9 cm(sub H2O) estimated by the authors independently from propagation of GRACE errors. The northern signals are weak and uncorrelated among basins. The southern signals are strong, with a common seasonality. The seasonal cycle GRACE data observed in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors of the ACC are consistent, with annual and semiannual amplitudes of 3.6 and 0.6 cm(sub H2O) (1.1 and 0.6 cm(sub H2O) with ECCO), the average over the full southern path peaks (stronger ACC) in the southern winter, on days of year 197 and 97 for the annual and semiannual components, respectively; the Atlantic Ocean annual peak is 20 days earlier. An approximate conversion factor of 3.1 Sv ( Sv equivalent to 10(exp 6) m(exp 3) s(exp -1)) of barotropic transport variability per cm(sub H2O) of BP change is estimated. Wind stress data time series from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), averaged monthly, zonally, and over the latitude band 40 de - 65 deg S, are also constructed and subsampled at the same months as with the GRACE data. The annual and semiannual harmonics of the wind stress peak on days 198 and 82, respectively. A decreasing trend over the 3 yr is observed in the three data types.

oceanographic regions↗

Inter-annual and Long-term Temperature Variations in the Mesopause Region at High Latitudes Generated by the Stratospheric QBO

The Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) simulates the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) that dominates the zonal circulation of the lower stratosphere at low latitudes. In the model, the QBO is generated with parameterized small-scale gravity waves (GW), which are partially augmented in 3D with planetary waves owing to baroclinic instability. Due to GW filtering, the QBO extends into the upper mesosphere, evident in UARS zonal wind and TIMED temperature measurements. While the QBO zonal winds are confined to equatorial latitudes, even in simulations with latitude-independent wave source, the associated temperature variations extend to high latitudes. The meridional circulation redistributes some of the QBO energy to focus it partially onto the Polar Regions. The resulting QBO temperature variations away from the equator tend to increase at higher altitudes to produce inter-annual variations that can exceed 5 K in the polar mesopause region -- and our 3D model simulations show that the effect is variable from year to year and can produce large differences between the two hemispheres, presumably due to interactions involving the seasonal variations. Modeling studies with the NSM have shown that long-term variations can also be generated by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles through OW node-filtering. A 30-month QBO, optimally synchronized by the 6-month Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO), thus produces a 5-year or semi-decadal (SD) oscillation -- and observational evidence for that has been provided by a recent analysis of stratospheric NCEP data. In a simulation with the 2D version of the NSM, this SD oscillation extends into the upper mesosphere, and we present results to show that the related temperature variations could contribute significantly to the long-term variations of the polar mesopause region. Quasi-decadal variations could furthermore arise from the modeled solar cycle modulations of the QBO and 12-month annual oscillation. Our numerical results are discussed in the context of the observed low summer temperatures reproduced by the model, to demonstrate that the above interannual and long-term variations could contribute significantly to the climatology of Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMC) investigated by the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) mission.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its interannual variations generally respond adequately, but discrepancies in the tropics suggest the need for a refinement of the soil moisture dependence of the respiration flux in CASA. Examples and inferences for interpretation of satellite data will be discussed. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in the terrestrial CO2 sink and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗

TRMM's Contribution to Our Knowledge of Climatology, Storms and Floods

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has successfully completed nearly ten years in orbit. A brief review of the history and accomplishments of this joint mission between the U.S. and Japan is presented. Research highlights will focus on the seasonal cycle of a TRMM-based rainfall climatology, which takes advantage of the multiple rain estimates available from TRMM. Examples will be given of the use of TRMM data to diagnose the impact of man on precipitation patterns through urbanization and the effect of pollution. Use of TRMM data for tropical cyclone operational analysis in the U.S. will also be shown. Methods for generating 3-hourly rainfall information from multiple satellites using TRMM to calibrate all the information will be described as will application of such information to study extreme rainfall events and associated floods and landslides. These results will emphasize the breadth of science success achieved with the 10-year record of observations from the only rain radar and passive microwave instrument combination in space. The outlook for continued operation of the TRMM satellite and progress in TRMM science and applications will be addressed.

Adler, Robert↗

Atmospheric Parameter Climatologies from AIRS: Monitoring Short-, and Longer-Term Climate Variabilities and 'Trends'

The AIRS instrument is currently the best space-based tool to simultaneously monitor the vertical distribution of key climatically important atmospheric parameters as well as surface properties, and has provided high quality data for more than 5 years. AIRS analysis results produced at the GODDARD/DAAC, based on Versions 4 & 5 of the AIRS retrieval algorithm, are currently available for public use. Here, first we present an assessment of interrelationships of anomalies (proxies of climate variability based on 5 full years, since Sept. 2002) of various climate parameters at different spatial scales. We also present AIRS-retrievals-based global, regional and 1x1 degree grid-scale "trend"-analyses of important atmospheric parameters for this 5-year period. Note that here "trend" simply means the linear fit to the anomaly (relative the mean seasonal cycle) time series of various parameters at the above-mentioned spatial scales, and we present these to illustrate the usefulness of continuing AIRS-based climate observations. Preliminary validation efforts, in terms of intercomparisons of interannual variabilities with other available satellite data analysis results, will also be addressed. For example, we show that the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and from the AIRS computations are in remarkably good agreement. Version 6 of the AIRS retrieval scheme (currently under development) promises to further improve bias agreements for the absolute values by implementing a more accurate radiative transfer model for the OLR computations and by improving surface emissivity retrievals.

Molnar, Gyula↗

The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

The US CLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of EL Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

Schubert, Siegfried↗