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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Coarse, Intermediate and High Resolution Numerical Simulations of the Transition of a Tropical Wave Critical Layer to a Tropical Storm

Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from within the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i) a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii) containment of moisture entrained by the developing flow and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii) confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv) a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v) maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the developing proto-vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. This genesis sequence and the overarching framework for describing how such hybrid wave-vortex structures become tropical depressions/storms is likened to the development of a marsupial infant in its mother's pouch, and for this reason has been dubbed the "marsupial paradigm". Here we conduct the first multi-scale test of the marsupial paradigm in an idealized setting by revisiting the Kurihara and Tuleya problem examining the transformation of an easterly wave-like disturbance into a tropical storm vortex using the WRF model. An analysis of the evolving winds, equivalent potential temperature, and relative vertical vorticity is presented from coarse (28 km), intermediate (9 km) and high resolution (3.1 km) simulations. The results are found to support key elements of the marsupial paradigm by demonstrating the existence of rotationally dominant region with minimal strain/shear deformation near the center of the critical layer pouch that contains strong cyclonic vorticity and high saturation fraction. This localized region within the pouch serves as the "attractor" for an upscale "bottom up" development process while the wave pouch and proto-vortex move together.

Montgomery, M. T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beryllium Isotopes in Rainfall for Stratospheric-Tropospheric Exchange Dynamics Experiment (BIRDIE) (Final Report)

The Beryllium Isotopes in Rainfall for Stratospheric-Tropospheric Exchange Dynamics Experiment or BIRDIE was a precipitation collection campaign designed to measure cosmogenic isotopes of beryllium in rainfall and other forms of precipitation across the DOE Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. Precipitation samples were collected over three weeks (May 21-June 10, 2022) at 11 SGP sites across a 120 km 2 domain in northern and central Oklahoma. The field campaign targeted summer-time convection rain events. We aimed to capture any spatial and/or temporal variability in the concentrations of beryllium-10 (10Be) and beryllium-7 (7Be) across the SGP ARM site during these rainfall events. The ratio of 10Be to 7Be (10/7Be) has been shown to be a powerful tracer for transport processes in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) system (e.g., Koch and Rind 1998). Any observed variability is analyzed to see if it could be linked to STE processes, including overshooting of deep convection clouds which penetrate the lower stratosphere. Six wet weather system events were collected within our three-week span. Five out of six of these rainfall events are classified as moderately to strongly convective. Those events are studied in more detail. The five systems also follow each other over a short time period of eleven days. In our rainfall samples we observed spatial and event variability in the concentrations of beryllium-10 and -7 which resulted in variability of 10/7 Be ratios. Each weather event appeared to exhibit a unique 10/7Be pattern across the domain that was not directly linked to storm total precipitation amount. To better understand the causes for this spatial variability, cloud characteristics in the domain were looked at to assess cloud type, cloud height and depth information. We also ran Hysplit back trajectories to identify possible air mass and moisture origins across our events. Detailed analysis is still on-going. The purpose of this technical report is to provide background on using cosmogenic isotopes as atmospheric tracers, describe the experimental design, and present the beryllium concentration and ratio data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Azimuthally averaged wind and thermodynamic structures of tropical cyclones in global climate models and their sensitivity to horizontal resolution

Characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global climate models (GCMs) are known to be influenced by details of the model configurations, including horizontal resolution and parameterization schemes. Understanding model-to-model differences in TC characteristics is a prerequisite for reducing uncertainty in future TC activity projections by GCMs. This study performs a process-level examination of TC structures in eight GCM simulations that span a range of horizontal resolutions from 1° to 0.25°. A recently developed set of process-oriented diagnostics is used to examine the azimuthally averaged wind and thermodynamic structures of the GCM-simulated TCs. Results indicate that the inner-core wind structures of simulated TCs are more strongly constrained by the horizontal resolutions of the models than are the thermodynamic structures of those TCs. As expected, the structures of TC circulations become more realistic with smaller horizontal grid spacing, such that the radii of maximum wind (RMW) become smaller, and the maximum vertical velocities occur off the center. However, the RMWs are still too large, especially at higher intensities, and there are rising motions occurring at the storm centers, inconsistently with observations. The distributions of precipitation, moisture, radiative and surface turbulent heat fluxes around TCs are diverse, even across models with similar horizontal resolutions. At the same horizontal resolution, models that produce greater rainfall in the inner-core regions tend to simulate stronger TCs. Further, when TCs are weak, the radial gradient of net column radiative flux convergence is comparable to that of surface turbulent heat fluxes, emphasizing the importance of cloud-radiative feedbacks during the early developmental phases of TCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Should We Conserve Entropy or Energy when Computing CAPE with Mixed-Phase Precipitation Physics?

Abstract The rapidly increasing resolution of global atmospheric reanalysis and climate model datasets necessitates finding methods for computing convective available potential energy (CAPE) both efficiently and accurately. To this end, this article compares two common methods for computing CAPE which conserve either energy or entropy. Inaccuracies in these computations arise from both physical and numerical errors. For instance, computing CAPE with entropy conserved results in physical errors from nonequilibrium phase transitions but minimizes numerical errors because solutions are analytic at each height. In contrast, computing CAPE with energy conserved avoids these physical errors, but accumulates numerical errors that are grid-resolution-dependent because the numerical integration of a differential equation is required. Analysis of CAPE computed with large databases of soundings from the tropical Amazon and midlatitude storm environments shows that physical errors from the entropy method are typically 1%–3% as large as CAPE, which is comparable to the numerical errors from conserving energy with grid spacing of 25 and 250 m using explicit first-order and second-order integration schemes, respectively. Errors in entropy-based CAPE calculations are also insensitive to vertical grid spacing, in contrast to energy-based calculations whose error strongly scales with the grid spacing. It is shown that entropy-based methods are advantageous when intercomparing datasets with differing vertical resolution because they produce accurate and reasonably fast results that are insensitive to grid resolution, whereas a second-order energy-based method is advantageous when analyzing data with a consistent vertical resolution because of its superior computational efficiency. Significance Statement Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is a measure of instability in the atmosphere that helps forecasters and researchers understand when and where thunderstorms will form. The purpose of this article is to identify the most efficient and accurate methods for computing CAPE. Two methods are considered here, one that relates to the entropy (a measure of thermodynamic disorder) of an air parcel and one that relates to the energy of an air parcel. Results indicate that the entropy method is most accurate and insensitive to the resolution of the data used for the calculation (which can vary considerably), whereas the energy method uses the least computation time.

Peters, John M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Monitoring tropical cyclone intensity using wind fields derived from short-interval satellite images

Rapid scan visible images from the Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer sensor on board SMS-2 and GOES-1 were used to derive high resolution upper and lower tropospheric environmental wind fields around three western Atlantic tropical cyclones (1975-78). These wind fields were used to derive upper and lower tropospheric areal mean relative vorticity and their differences, the net relative angular momentum balance and upper tropospheric mass outflow. These kinematic parameters were shown by studies using composite rawinsonde data to be strongly related to tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. Also, the role of forced synoptic scale subsidence in tropical cyclone formation was examined. The studies showed that satellite-derived lower and upper tropospheric wind fields can be used to monitor and possibly predict tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. These kinematic analyses showed that future changes in tropical cyclone intensity are mainly related to the "spin-up" of the storms by the net horizontal transport of relative angular momentum caused by convergence of cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and to a lesser extent the divergence of anticyclone vorticity in the upper troposphere.

Rodgers, E. B.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A numerical investigation of East Coast cyclogenesis during the cold-air damming event of 27-28 February 1982. I - Dynamic and thermodynamic structure

A cyclogenesis event combined with strong cold-air damming, coastal frontogenesis, and extensive mixed precipitation, which occurred on February 27-28, 1982 at the South Carolina coast is investigated numerically. The prestorm environment and subsequent cyclogenesis was simulated using a nested version of the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model with 35-km fine-mesh resolution. The model was found to successfully reproduce most principal synoptic and mesoscale features associated with this cyclogenesis case, including the storm path and intensification, the coastal front structure, cold-air damming, circulations induced by a polar jet streak, low-level jets, and precipitation. The results of this study reveal the existence of two moist airstreams fed by an onshore flow from the marine boundary layer east of the coastal front.

Lapenta, William M.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dipolarizing flux bundles in the cis-geosynchronous magnetosphere: Relationship between electric fields and energetic particle injections

Dipolarizing flux bundles (DFBs) are small flux tubes (typically <3 R E in X GSM and Y GSM ) in the nightside magnetosphere that have magnetic field more dipolar than the background. Although DFBs are known to accelerate particles, creating energetic particle injections outside geosynchronous orbit (trans-GEO), the nature of the acceleration mechanism and the importance of DFBs in generating injections inside geosynchronous orbit (cis-GEO) are unclear. Our statistical study of cis-GEO DFBs using data from the Van Allen Probes reveals that just like trans-GEO DFBs, cis-GEO DFBs occur most often in the premidnight sector, but their occurrence rate is ~1/3 that of trans-GEO DFBs. Half the cis-GEO DFBs are accompanied by an energetic particle injection and have an electric field 3 times stronger than that of the injectionless half. All DFB injections are dispersionless within the temporal resolution considered (11 s). In conclusion, our findings suggest that these injections are ushered or produced locally by the DFB, and the DFB's strong electric field is an important aspect of the injection generation mechanism.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

CME Interaction with Large-Scale Coronal Structures

This talk presents some key observations that highlight the importance of CME interaction with other large scale structures such as CMEs and coronal holes . Such interactions depend on the phase of the solar cycle: during maximum, CMEs are ejected more frequently, so CME-CME interaction becomes dominant. During the rise phase, the polar coronal holes are strong, so the interaction between polar coronal holes and CMEs is important, which also leads to a possible increase in the number of interplanetary CMEs observed as magnetic clouds. During the declining phase, there are more equatorial coronal holes, so CMEs originating near these coronal holes are easily deflected. CMEs can be deflected toward and away from the Sun-Earth line resulting in interesting geospace consequences. For example, the largest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 was due to a CME that was deflected towards the Sun-earth line from E22. CME deflection away from the Sun-Earth line diminishes the chance of a CME producing a geomagnetic storm. CME interaction in the coronagraphic field of view was first identified using enhanced radio emission, which is an indication of acceleration of low energy (approx.10 keV) electrons in the interaction site. CME interaction, therefore, may also have implications for proton acceleration. For example, solar energetic particle events typically occur with a higher intensity, whenever multiple CMEs occur in quick succession from the same source region. CME deflection may also have implications to the arrival of energetic particles to earth because magnetic connectivity may be changed by the interaction. I illustrate the above points using examples from SOHO, STEREO, Wind, and ACE data .

Gopalswarny, Nat↗
DOE OSTI2016

Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Oceans (MARCUS) Science Plan

The Southern Ocean (SO) is the stormiest place on earth, buffeted by winds and waves that circle the ice of Antarctica, and sheathed in clouds that mantle a dynamic ocean with rich ecosystems. The remote and usually pristine environment, typically removed from anthropogenic and natural continental aerosol sources, makes the SO unique for examining cloud-aerosol interactions for liquid and ice clouds, and the role of primary and secondary marine biogenic aerosols and sea salt. There is strong seasonality in aerosol sources and sinks over the SO that are poorly understood. Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in the simulation of SO clouds, aerosols, and air-sea exchanges that trace to poor physical understanding of these processes, and by cloud feedbacks (e.g., phase changes) in response to warming. Models almost universally underestimate sunlight reflected by near surface cloud, particularly in the cold sector of cyclonic storm systems, and this may be due to difficulties in representing pervasive supercooled and mixed-phase boundary-layer (BL) clouds. Motivated by these issues, a large international multi-agency effort called the Southern Ocean Clouds Radiation Transport Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES) has been proposed to improve our understanding of clouds, aerosols, air-sea exchanges and their interactions over the SO. Coincident with SOCRATES, the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and CloUds over the Southern Oceans (MARCUS) experiment will be conducted where the second U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s Mobile Facility (AMF2) will be installed on the Australian Antarctic supply vessel Aurora Australis (AA) as it makes routine transits between Hobart, Australia and the Antarctic, visiting the Australian Antarctic stations Mawson, Davis, and Casey, as well as Macquarie Island. During MARCUS, the AMF-2 will acquire comprehensive observations of aerosols (including cloud condensation nuclei [CCN] and ice nucleating particles [INP]) in the BL, vertical distributions of macrophysical and microphysical properties of liquid and mixed-phase clouds, and downwelling radiative fluxes over the SO during a 7-month period (September 2017 to April 2018) centered upon the Austral summer. The MARCUS observations will be self-standing and unique in that they will capture the variability in aerosol and cloud properties across the SO from spring to autumn, especially in cold waters at latitudes poleward 55° S, where supercooled and mixed-phase BL clouds in the cold sector of cyclones are frequent and where past and planned SO observations are most sparse.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Numerical Study of Hurricane Erin (2001): Shear and the Organization of Eyewall Vertical Motion - Part II

A high-resolution numerical simulation of Hurricane Erin (2001) is used to examine the organization of vertical motion in the eyewall and how that organization responds to a large and rapid increase in the environmental vertical wind shear and subsequent decrease in shear. During the early intensification period, prior to the onset of significant shear, the upward motion in the eyewall was concentrated in small-scale convective updrafts that formed in association with regions of concentrated vorticity (herein termed mesovortices) with no preferred formation region in the eyewall. Asymmetric flow within the eye was weak. As the shear increased, an azimuthal wavenumber 1 asymmetry in storm structure developed with updrafts tending to form on the downshear to downshear-left side of the eyewall. Continued intensification of the shear led to increasing wavenumber 1 asymmetry, large vortex tilt, and a change in eyewall structure and vertical motion organization. During this time, the eyewall structure was dominated by a vortex couplet with a cyclonic (anticyclonic) vortex on the downtilt-left (downtilt-right) side of the eyewall and strong asymmetric flow across the eye that led to strong mixing of eyewall vorticity into the eye. Upward motion was concentrated over an azimuthally broader region on the downtilt side of the eyewall, upstream of the cyclonic vortex, where low-level environmental inflow converged with the asymmetric outflow from the eye. As the shear diminished, the vortex tilt and wavenumber 1 asymmetry decreased, while the organization of updrafts trended back toward that seen during the weak shear period.

Braun, Scott A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) Field Campaign Report

The Southern Ocean (SO) is the stormiest place on earth, buffeted by winds and waves that circle the ice of Antarctica, sheathed in clouds that mantle a dynamic ocean with rich ecosystems. The remote and usually pristine environment, typically removed from anthropogenic and natural continental aerosol sources, makes the SO unique for examining cloud-aerosol interactions for liquid and ice clouds, and the role of primary and secondary marine biogenic aerosols and sea salt. There is strong seasonality in aerosol sources and sinks over the SO that are poorly understood. Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in the simulation of SO clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiative transfer that trace to poor physical understanding of these processes, and by cloud feedbacks (e.g., phase changes) in response to warming. Models almost universally underestimate sunlight reflected by near-surface cloud, particularly in the cold sector of cyclonic storm systems, and this may be due to difficulties in representing pervasive supercooled and mixed-phase boundary-layer (BL) clouds. The Southern Ocean Clouds Radiation Transport Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES) white paper (Marchand et al. 2014) describes the motivation, scientific themes, and testable hypotheses that led to a multi-agency and international measurement campaign to study clouds, aerosols, and the air-sea interface over the SO. As a separate project within this international umbrella, the Measurement of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) field program was conducted between 29 October 2017 and 25 March 2018. During MARCUS, instruments from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s second Mobile Facility (AMF2) were installed on the Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis as it made resupply missions from Hobart, Tasmania to the Australian Antarctic stations of Casey, Mawson, and Davis, as well as Macquarie Island. Figure 1 shows the voyages conducted during MARCUS. The MARCUS data are unique in that they are the only set of data in the broader international effort that a) acquired comprehensive observations of clouds, aerosols, and radiation south of 60&deg;S, and b) acquired measurements across the full SO latitudinal range in the spring and fall seasons.

atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer↗
DOE OSTI2015

Temporal evolution of soil moisture statistical fractal and controls by soil texture and regional groundwater flow

Soil moisture statistical fractal is an important tool for downscaling remotely-sensed observations and has the potential to play a key role in multi-scale hydrologic modeling. The fractal was first introduced two decades ago, but relatively little is known regarding how its scaling exponents evolve in time in response to climatic forcings. Previous studies have neglected the process of moisture re-distribution due to regional groundwater flow. Here, we used a physically-based surface-subsurface processes model and numerical experiments to elucidate the patterns and controls of fractal temporal evolution in two U.S. Midwest basins. Groundwater flow was found to introduce large-scale spatial structure, thereby reducing the scaling exponents (τ), which has implications for the transferability of calibrated parameters to predict τ. However, the groundwater effects depend on complex interactions with other physical controls such as soil texture and land use. The fractal scaling exponents, while in general showing a seasonal mode that correlates with mean moisture content, display hysteresis after storm events that can be divided into three phases, consistent with literature findings: (a) wetting, (b) re-organizing, and (c) dry-down. Modeling experiments clearly show that the hysteresis is attributed to soil texture, whose "patchiness" is the primary contributing factor. We generalized phenomenological rules for the impacts of rainfall, soil texture, groundwater flow, and land use on τevolution. Grid resolution has a mild influence on the results and there is a strong correlation between predictions of τ from different resolutions. Overall, our results suggest that groundwater flow should be given more consideration in studies of the soil moisture statistical fractal, especially in regions with a shallow water table.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Heating mechanisms for intermittent loops in active region cores from AIA/SDO EUV observations

We investigate intensity variations and energy deposition in five coronal loops in active region cores. These were selected for their strong variability in the AIA/SDO 94 Å intensity channel. We isolate the hot Fe XVIII and Fe XXI components of the 94 Å and 131 Å by modeling and subtracting the 'warm' contributions to the emission. HMI/SDO data allow us to focus on 'inter-moss' regions in the loops. The detailed evolution of the inter-moss intensity time series reveals loops that are impulsively heated in a mode compatible with a nanoflare storm, with a spike in the hot 131 Å signals leading and the other five EUV emission channels following in progressive cooling order. A sharp increase in electron temperature tends to follow closely after the hot 131 Å signal confirming the impulsive nature of the process. A cooler process of growing emission measure follows more slowly. The Fourier power spectra of the hot 131 Å signals, when averaged over the five loops, present three scaling regimes with break frequencies near 0.1 min{sup –1} and 0.7 min{sup –1}. The low frequency regime corresponds to 1/f noise; the intermediate indicates a persistent scaling process and the high frequencies show white noise. Very similar results are found for the energy dissipation in a 2D 'hybrid' shell model of loop magneto-turbulence, based on reduced magnetohydrodynamics, that is compatible with nanoflare statistics. We suggest that such turbulent dissipation is the energy source for our loops.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Comparisons among second-order, fourth-order, and pseudospectral advection techniques in a mesoscale numerical model

The reported investigation is concerned with mesoscale squall-line simulation utilizing numerical techniques. Particular attention is given to fourth-order results and their implications for the dynamical evolution of mesoscale squall-line systems which contain severe local storms. An adiabatic inviscid set of prognostic equations is utilized in a z coordinate system for the fundamental experiment. The fourth-order advection is employed for all time-dependent equations. The Euler-backward time marching scheme is utilized with a 60 second time step. The horizontal mesh length is 42 km. Horizontal diffusion is accomplished by utilizing a smoother-desmoother. Lateral boundary conditions are designed to reduce the development of strong gradients in dependent variables near the boundaries by bringing interior values from the grid to the boundaries.

Kaplan, M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The effects of magnetic storm phases on F-layer irregularities

The effects of magnetic storm phases on F-layer irregularities from auroral to equatorial latitudes in a nearly constant western longitude zone are presented by considering scintillation, spread F, and low-energy (less than 12 eV) electron precipitation data for eight magnetic storms that occurred during the high solar flux period September-November 1981. In the equatorial region, F-layer irregularities can be inhibited during the main phase. In the high latitude region, F-layer irregularities are found to be generated at the auroral latitudes during the main phase. During the recovery phase, when there are conditions of low magnetic activity, low auroral irregularities, and low-energy electron precipitation crossing the subauroral regions, strong F-layer irregularities are found to be generated in the subauroral regions.

Balan, N.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Life of a Six-Hour Hurricane

Hurricane Claudette developed from a weak vortex in 6 h as deep convection shifted from downshear into the vortex center, despite ambient vertical wind shear exceeding 10 m/s. Six hours later it weakened to a tropical storm, and 12 h after the hurricane stage a circulation center could not be found at 850 hPa by aircraft reconnaissance. At hurricane strength the vortex contained classic structure seen in intensifying hurricanes, with the exception of 7-12 C dewpoint depressions in the lower troposphere upshear of the center. These extended from the 100-km radius to immediately adjacent to the eyewall, where equivalent potential temperature gradients reached 6 K/km. The dry air was not present prior to intensification, suggesting that it was associated with vertical shear-induced subsidence upshear of the developing storm. It is argued that weakening of the vortex was driven by cooling associated with the mixing of dry air into the core, and subsequent evaporation and cold downdrafts. Evidence suggests that this mixing might have been enhanced by eyewall instabilities after the period of rapid deepening. The existence of a fragile, small, but genuinely hurricane-strength vortex at the surface for 6 h presents difficult problems for forecasters. Such a "temporary hurricane" in strongly sheared flow might require a different warning protocol than longer-lasting hurricane vortices in weaker shear.

Shelton, Kay L.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling the Magnetopause Shadowing Loss During the June 2015 Dropout Event

Fast dropout of relativistic and ultrarelativistic electrons at both high and low L* regions were observed during the intense coronal mass ejection driven storm in June 2015. An improved radial diffusion model, using an event-specific Last Closed Drift Shell (LCDS) and newly-available radial diffusion coefficients ( DD LL ), is implemented to simulate the magnetopause shadowing loss of electrons. The model captures the fast shadowing loss of electrons well at high L* regions after both interplanetary shocks, and reproduces the initial adiabatic loss of the high-energy storage ring at low L* regions after the second strong shock. In this paper, we show for the first time that using the event-specific and K-dependent LCDS and improved DD LL is critical to reproduce the observed dropout features, including the timing, location, and the butterfly electron pitch angle distribution. Future inclusion of the EMIC wave scattering process is needed to model the observed further depletion of the storage ring.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Develop a weather-aware climate model to understand and predict extremes and associated power outages and renewable energy shortages with uncertainty-aware and physics-informed machine learning

Focal Area(s): The focus area is predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components with a particular emphasis on extreme weather in Atmospheric Science and power outages and shortages in Energy Science. Science Challenge: Predicting weather extremes (e.g., heavy precipitation, strong wind, and large hailstones), and weather-related power system outages and shortages can mitigate economic losses, save lives, support renewables integration, and improve power system resiliency. However, currently, the poor reliability and large uncertainty associated with the weather extreme prediction in the current climate models make the problem intractable. The key challenges are: (1) physical factors like green-house gases (GHGs), aerosols, and land use and land cover (LULC) can significantly impact extreme storms, but the understanding of these impacts is limited, particularly globally; (2) the convective permitting resolutions needed to model severe convective storms and their impacts are computationally prohibitive with global climate models (GCMs); (3) interactions between weather extremes and power system outages are complex and subject to great uncertainty. Current outage prediction models are short lead (~ 3 days), which do not allow for long-time planning of energy production and distribution. Moreover, we have limited capacity to predict weather events leading to sustained shortages in a renewable-energy-dominated power system. These challenges drive motivation for mechanistic understanding and reliable and efficient predictive modeling of extremes and their impacts from the sub-seasonal to long term projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗