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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6°C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Last Interglacial climate↗
NASA NTRS2017

Description and Evaluation of the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry Model (NMMB-MONARCH) Version 1.0: Gas-Phase Chemistry at Global Scale

This paper presents a comprehensive description and benchmark evaluation of the tropospheric gas-phase chemistry component of the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry model (NMMBMONARCH), formerly known as NMMB/BSC-CTM, that can be run on both regional and global domains. Here, we provide an extensive evaluation of a global annual cycle simulation using a variety of background surface stations (EMEP, WDCGG and CASTNET), ozonesondes (WOUDC, CMD and SHADOZ), aircraft data (MOZAIC and several campaigns), and satellite observations (SCIAMACHY and MOPITT).We also include an extensive discussion of our results in comparison to other state-of-the-art models. We note that in this study, we omitted aerosol processes and some natural emissions (lightning and volcano emissions). The model shows a realistic oxidative capacity across the globe. The seasonal cycle for CO is fairly well represented at different locations (correlations around 0.3-0.7 in surface concentrations), although concentrations are underestimated in spring and winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and are overestimated throughout the year at 800 and 500 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere. Nitrogen species are well represented in almost all locations, particularly NO2 in Europe (root mean square error - RMSE - below 5 ppb). The modeled vertical distributions of NOx and HNO3 are in excellent agreement with the observed values and the spatial and seasonal trends of tropospheric NO2 columns correspond well to observations from SCIAMACHY, capturing the highly polluted areas and the biomass burning cycle throughout the year. Over Asia, the model underestimates NOx from March to August, probably due to an underestimation of NOx emissions in the region. Overall, the comparison of the modeled CO and NO2 with MOPITT and SCIAMACHY observations emphasizes the need for more accurate emission rates from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources (i.e., specification of temporal variability).

atmospheric chemistry↗
NASA NTRS2016

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Weather disturbances↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Southern Annular Mode and Southern Ocean Surface Westerly Winds in E3SM

Climate variability and change in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are influenced by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and are closely related to changes in the kinematic properties of the SH surface zonal winds. The SAM and SH surface zonal winds have strong effects on the atmospheric and oceanic circulation system. In this study we investigate the variability and trend in the SAM and position and strength of the surface zonal wind stress (TAUX), using two ensembles of simulations covering the historical record from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-HIST and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) for 1979-2014. In addition, performance of two CO 2 forcing simulations from the E3SM (E3SM-1pctCO2 and 4xCO2) is assessed to examine the sensitivity of the variability and changes in the SAM and SH surface TAUX to climate forcing. In general, all E3SM simulations tend to capture the dominant feature of the SAM pattern reasonably well. The annual SAM index in the E3SM-HIST simulation shows a significant increasing trend. These features are similar to the trends in the strength (along with poleward shift in the position) of the annual surface TAUX. For the climatological surface TAUX position and strength, the two CO 2 forcing simulations show slightly poleward movement and stronger intensity, while the E3SM-HIST is equatorward and weaker than observations. In the relationship between the SAM and surface TAUX, we show that the SAM index exhibits a positive (negative) relationship with the strength (position) of the surface TAUX in the variability for all seasons and annual mean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

First results of a general circulation model applied to the SST-NOx problem

Results of model runs, one using two-dimensional distribution of NO2 in the unperturbed stratosphere and another including an additional localized source of NO2 to approximate the effect of SSTs, are reported. The general circulation model and chemical reactions are described, and corrections in the previous latitudinal and seasonal gradients of total columnar ozone and the diffusion coefficient in the neighborhood of the tropopause are noted. Excellent agreement with previous observations was obtained. Global distributions of ozone and NO2 are described and represented in graphs. Results indicate ozone reduction of approximately 16% in the Northern Hemisphere and approximately 8% in the Southern Hemisphere, with the mid-latitude source of NO2 apparently having a blocking effect on the horizontal transport of ozone, resulting in larger reductions of ozone at high latitudes than at low ones.

Cunnold, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The Borealis Basin of Mars

Why the lowlands of Mars are concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere and the highlands in the Southern Hemisphere is probably the most fundamental unsolved problem in martian geology. No explanation that accounts both for this asymmetric distribution and for the isostatic equilibrium across the scarp or sloping transition zone dividing the two provinces has been generally accepted; thinning of the lithosphere in the northern hemisphere by internal processes has been suggested. Because other lowland-highland distributions on Mars, Moon, and Mercury are controlled by impact basins, it is proposed that a giant basin formed early in Mars' history has caused the martian hemispheric dichotomy as well.

Wilhelms, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Earth anisotropic reflection and the orbit of LAGEOS

Radiation pressure due to sunlight anisotropically reflected from the oceans apparently cannot explain the fluctuations in the anomalous along-track deceleration of the LAGEOS satellite. It fails by about a factor of 2 to account for the major peaks in the acceleration. This result is based on an extreme model: a cloudless earth whose northern hemisphere consists of continent, and whose southern hemisphere consists of ocean. The continent is assumed to reflect sunlight according to Lambert's law, while the ocean reflects anisotropically according to a simple analytical law which mimics Nimbus 7 observations. The inclusion of clouds into the model would reduce the acceleration to perhaps an order of magnitude below those observed. Some other explanation for the fluctuations, which have magnitude about 2 x 10 to the -12th m/sec sq, must be sought.

Rubincam, David Parry↗
NASA NTRS1987

Cusp displacement at the magnetopause for large IMF Y component

The magnetic field orientation just earthward of the dayside magnetopause from 95 ISEE and 11 HEOS crossings with /By/ greater than /Bz/ in the adjacent magnetosheath indicate a statistically significant-1-earth-radius shift of the cusps toward dawn (dusk) in the Northern Hemisphere and dusk (dawn) in the Southern Hemisphere for positive (negative) By. This small shift near the magnetopause and the contrasting large shifts of some reported ionospheric cusp signatures are explained in terms of a finite thickness magnetopause model through which the cusps shift gradually from the inner to the outer edge.

Crooker, N. U.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Distribution of tropospheric ozone determined from satellite data

An analysis of more than 22,000 ozone profiles from Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment I (SAGE I) (1979-1981) and SAGE II (1984-1987) between 50 deg N and 50 deg S is used in conjunction with 9 years (1979-1987) of daily global depictions of total ozone from the TOMS instrument aboard Nimbus 7 to investigate the spatial distribution and seasonal cycle of the integrated amount of ozone in the troposphere. In the tropics, highest concentrations are found in the eastern Atlantic Ocean downwind (west) of Africa and maximize during the time when biomass burning is most prevalent, between July and October. A different seasonal cycle in the tropics is also observed over Indonesia, where a relative maximum is present in the March-April time frame, likewise consistent with when biomass burning is most prevalent. At mid-latitudes, highest concentrations are found downwind of Asia and maximize in the summer. Relatively higher amounts of tropospheric ozone are similarly observed downwind of North America and Europe. At mid-latitudes, the ratio between the amount of tropospheric ozone in the Northern Hemisphere and the amount in the Southern Hemisphere is 1.4, in good agreement with in situ measurements.

Fishman, Jack↗
NASA NTRS1994

On the cause of the annual cycle in tropical lower-stratospheric temperatures

An analysis of monthly mean, zonally averaged temperatures from the lower-stratospheric channel of the microwave sounding unit (MSU-4) shows that on the month-to-month time scale, there is nearly complete compensation between temperature changes in the tropics and in the extratropics. For the annual cycle the MSU-4 data show a similar compensation between temperatures in the tropics and those in high latitudes, with only a small residual variation in the global mean. The tropics are coldest in January and warmest in July, compensating for the warmer wintertime temperatues in the Northern Hemisphere compared to those in the Southern Hemisphere. These out-of phase temperature variations betwen the tropics and extratropics are interpreted as the signature of an annual cycle in the strength of the wave-driven, Lagrangian mean meridional circulation, which warms the high-latitude winter hemisphere and cools the tropics. The observed phase of the annual cycle in tropical lower-stratospheric temperatures is thus determined by the stronger orographic and thermal forcing of the wintertime planetary waves in the Northern Hemisphere, which drives a stronger Lagrangian mean meridional circulation. In the absence of fluctuations in the global mean diabatic heating, the compensation would be complete and the globally averaged temperature would be constant. The small annual cycle in the globally averaged temperature in the MSU-4 data is nearly in phase with the annual cycle in the tropics and is consistent with the annual cycle in diabatic heating by ozone.

Yulaeva, Elena↗
NASA NTRS1996

Latitudinal Distribution of Upper Stratospheric ClO as Derived from Space Borne Microwave Spectroscopy

Latitudinal distributions of upper stratospheric ClO measured by MAS during the three ATLAS missions are presented for northern hemisphere (NH) spring equinox in 1992, southern hemisphere (SH) early fall in 1993, and NH fall in 1994. The MAS ClO results are shown along with correlative MLS observations. The results of both instruments consistently show the same latitudinal features. The ClO maximum in the NH spring occurs at mid latitudes, whereas the latitudinal ClO maximum in both the NH and SH fall occurs at high latitudes. The volume mixing ratio maxima were significantly higher in the fall (0.7-0.8 ppbv) than in spring (0.5-0.6 ppbv). Qualitatively, these results are consistent with calculations of several 2-D models.

Aellig, C. P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Temperature of the Arctic and Antarctic Lower Stratosphere

The temperature of the polar lower stratosphere during spring is the key factor in changing the magnitude of ozone loss in the polar vortices. In this talk, we will review the results of Newman et al. [2000] that quantitatively demonstrate that the polar lower stratospheric temperature is primarily controlled by planetary-scale waves. In particular, the tropospheric eddy heat flux in middle to late winter (January--February) is highly correlated with the mean polar stratospheric temperature during March. Strong midwinter planetary wave forcing leads to a warmer spring Arctic lower stratosphere in early spring, while weak midwinter forcing leads to cooler spring Arctic temperatures. In addition, this planetary wave driving also has a strong impact on the strength of the polar vortex. These results from the Northern Hemisphere will be contrasted with the Southern Hemisphere.

Newman, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Ross sea ice motion, area flux, and deformation

The sea ice motion, area export, and deformation of the Ross Sea ice cover are examined with satellite passive microwave and RADARSAT observations. The record of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, from 1998 and 2000, allows the estimation of the variability of ice deformation at the small scale (10 km) and to assess the quality of the longer record of passive microwave ice motion. Daily and subdaily deformation fields and RADARSAT imagery highlight the variability of motion and deformation in the Ross Sea. With the passive microwave ice motion, the area export at a flux gate positioned between Cape Adare and Land Bay is estimated. Between 1992 and 2003, a positive trend can be seen in the winter (March-November) ice area flux that has a mean of 990 x 103 km2 and ranges from a low of 600 x 103 km2 in 1992 to a peak of 1600 x 103 km2 in 2001. In the mean, the southern Ross Sea produces almost twice its own area of sea ice during the winter. Cross-gate sea level pressure (SLP) gradients explain 60% of the variance in the ice area flux. A positive trend in this gradient, from reanalysis products, suggests a 'spinup' of the Ross Sea Gyre over the past 12 yr. In both the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 surface pressure fields, longer-term trends in this gradient and mean SLP between 1979 and 2002 are explored along with positive anomalies in the monthly cross-gate SLP gradient associated with the positive phase of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation.

Ross Sea↗
NASA NTRS2013

Application of Spectral Analysis Techniques in the Intercomparison of Aerosol Data: 1. an EOF Approach to the Spatial-Temporal Variability of Aerosol Optical Depth Using Multiple Remote Sensing Data Sets

Many remote sensing techniques and passive sensors have been developed to measure global aerosol properties. While instantaneous comparisons between pixel-level data often reveal quantitative differences, here we use Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, also known as Principal Component Analysis, to demonstrate that satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) data sets exhibit essentially the same spatial and temporal variability and are thus suitable for large-scale studies. Analysis results show that the first four EOF modes of AOD account for the bulk of the variance and agree well across the four data sets used in this study (i.e., Aqua MODIS, Terra MODIS, MISR, and SeaWiFS). Only SeaWiFS data over land have slightly different EOF patterns. Globally, the first two EOF modes show annual cycles and are mainly related to Sahara dust in the northern hemisphere and biomass burning in the southern hemisphere, respectively. After removing the mean seasonal cycle from the data, major aerosol sources, including biomass burning in South America and dust in West Africa, are revealed in the dominant modes due to the different interannual variability of aerosol emissions. The enhancement of biomass burning associated with El Niño over Indonesia and central South America is also captured with the EOF technique.

variability↗
NASA NTRS2016

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William D.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Terrestrial Water Storage

During 2014 dryness continued in the Northern Hemisphere and relative wetness continued in the Southern Hemisphere (Fig. 2.21; Plate 2.1g). These largely canceled out such that the global land surface began and ended the year with a terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly slightly below 0 cm (equivalent height of water; Fig. 2.22). TWS is the sum of groundwater, soil moisture, surface water, snow, and ice. Groundwater responds more slowly to meteorological phenomena than the other components because the overlying soil acts as a low pass filter, but often it has a larger range of variability on multiannual timescales (Rodell and Famiglietti 2001; Alley et al. 2002).In situ groundwater data are only archived and made and Tanzania. The rest of the continent experienced mixed to dry conditions. Significant reductions in TWS in Greenland, Antarctica, and southern coastal Alaska reflect ongoing ice sheet and glacier ablation, not groundwater depletion.

Northern Hemisphere↗