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DOE OSTI2026

Regression Analysis with the Directed Infusion of Data

Integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning tools into industry necessitates large-scale collaborative efforts that ensure the robust and accurate execution of downstream analytics such as time series prediction, uncertainty quantification, grid optimization, and condition monitoring. However, concerns related to data privacy pervade the nuclear industry due to the proprietary nature of its data and the possibility of data leakage. Legacy techniques such as encryption often require the explicit transmission of data to trustworthy parties, thereby inviting data leakage concerns. The ideal collaboration scenario avoids the explicit dissemination of data/code while maintaining experimental fidelity, which is currently accomplished using various techniques such as trusted execution environments, homomorphic encryption, differential privacy, and multimatrix masking. These techniques, however, often necessitate a trade-off between trust, efficiency, and utility. This article extends a previously proposed technique called the directed infusion of data (DIOD) that ensures data privacy, allows for scalable obfuscation, and combats the risk of data leakage without compromising utility. The experiments discussed in this article examine a regression-type scenario using DIOD with the goal of preserving the inferential link between two variables. Using the point-kinetics equations, regression experiments compare the performance of a model trained using the original data to that of a model trained using the obfuscated data, which produced identical results. Our claim is further strengthened by an information theoretic proof and experiment, which showed that the inferential content between variables remains the same after obfuscation, thereby avoiding the required communication of the proprietary data.

47 - OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

High Heat Flux Testing of Castellated Graphite Plasma- Facing Components

As part of the recovery project of the National Spherical Tokamak Experiment–Upgrade (NSTX-U), the divertor plasma-facing components (PFCs) were redesigned to handle significantly higher heat fluxes and longer pulse lengths than NSTX. The design process resulted in a castellated, graphite PFC tile. To verify the thermal performance of this design, dedicated electron beam, high heat flux (HHF) testing was carried out on a de-optimized mock-up PFC target. These tests demonstrated that the tile design is itself robust to large, localized thermal gradients. No mechanical damage to the mock-up was observed during HHF testing, though the actual PFC tile mechanical tie-down was not tested. Rather, when the surface temperature exceeded the sublimation temperature of graphite, carbon blooms from the mock-up tile surface were observed. Finally, this resulted in 1 to 2 mm of surface material ablating from the mock-up after repeated, highly localized electron beam exposures.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deblending galaxies with variational autoencoders: A joint multiband, multi-instrument approach

ABSTRACT Blending of galaxies has a major contribution in the systematic error budget of weak-lensing studies, affecting photometric and shape measurements, particularly for ground-based, deep, photometric galaxy surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Existing deblenders mostly rely on analytic modelling of galaxy profiles and suffer from the lack of flexible yet accurate models. We propose to use generative models based on deep neural networks, namely variational autoencoders (VAE), to learn probabilistic models directly from data. We train a VAE on images of centred, isolated galaxies, which we reuse, as a prior, in a second VAE-like neural network in charge of deblending galaxies. We train our networks on simulated images including six LSST bandpass filters and the visible and near-infrared bands of the Euclid satellite, as our method naturally generalizes to multiple bands and can incorporate data from multiple instruments. We obtain median reconstruction errors on ellipticities and r-band magnitude between ±0.01 and ±0.05, respectively, in most cases, and ellipticity multiplicative bias of 1.6 per cent for blended objects in the optimal configuration. We also study the impact of decentring and prove the method to be robust. This method only requires the approximate centre of each target galaxy, but no assumptions about the number of surrounding objects, pointing to an iterative detection/deblending procedure we leave for future work. Finally, we discuss future challenges about training on real data and obtain encouraging results when applying transfer learning.

Arcelin, Bastien↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of sintering temperature on feature resolution and flexural strength of ceramics fabricated through vat photopolymerization additive manufacturing

Although ceramic additive manufacturing (AM) could be used to fabricate complex, high-resolution parts for diverse, functional applications, one ongoing challenge is optimizing the post-process, particularly sintering, conditions to consistently produce geometrically accurate and mechanically robust parts. This study aims to investigate how sintering temperature affects feature resolution and flexural properties of silica-based parts formed by vat photopolymerization (VPP) AM. Test artifacts were designed to evaluate features of different sizes, shapes and orientations, and three-point bend specimens printed in multiple orientations were used to evaluate mechanical properties. Sintering temperatures were varied between 1000°C and 1300°C. Deviations from designed dimensions often increased with higher sintering temperatures and/or larger features. Higher sintering temperatures yielded parts with higher strength and lower strain at break. Many features exhibited defects, often dependent on geometry and sintering temperature, highlighting the need for further analysis of debinding and sintering parameters. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time test artifacts have been designed for ceramic VPP. This work also offers insights into the effect of sintering temperature and print orientation on flexural properties. These results provide design guidelines for a particular material, while the methodology outlined for assessing feature resolution and flexural strength is broadly applicable to other ceramics, enabling more predictable part performance when considering the future design and manufacture of complex ceramic parts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Solar Power Forecasting with Regularized Constrained Quantile Regression Averaging and Bootstrapping Techniques

Probabilistic solar power forecasting (SPF) plays an essential role in optimizing power-grid operations by quantifying the forecast uncertainty. To improve the accuracy and robustness of probabilistic SPF, this paper introduces the regularized constrained quantile regression averaging (rCQRA) method to combine outputs from multiple PSPF models. In addition, a bootstrapping method was used to quantify model uncertainty, providing insights into the reliability and significance of each ensemble component. To evaluate its efficacy, the proposed rCQRA method is used to integrate four PSPF methods. The resulting SPF models are trained and validated using a real-world six-year dataset from a rooftop solar plant in the USA. The performance of the proposed rCQRA method is evaluated and compared with two benchmark methods under three categories of weather conditions. It is shown that the rCQRA method has superior performance in its forecast reliability, sharpness, and accuracy.

Ensemble learning, probabilistic solar power forec↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncer- tainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2026

Application of Peracetic Acid in Poultry Processing: Effects of Treatment Dynamics and Emerging Risk of Resistance Development in Salmonella spp.

Nontyphoidal Salmonella is a leading cause of foodborne illness, with poultry representing a major source. Peracetic acid (PAA), a widely adopted antimicrobial in poultry processing, offers advantages over traditional disinfectants but has sparked interest in its combined use with other antimicrobials and potential resistance. This review evaluates the efficacy of PAA in mitigating Salmonella in combination with other food-grade antimicrobials, explores possible synergism, efficacy under varying treatment parameters, resistance development against PAA, and its role in resistance evolution. While PAA demonstrates broad-spectrum efficacy, its performance varies with environmental parameters; higher temperatures generally enhance antimicrobial action but also accelerate PAA degradation. Organic matter diminishes PAA efficacy by reactive quenching. Variability in concentration and contact time further influences outcomes. Despite its oxidative mode of action and presumed low risk for resistance, emerging studies indicate that Salmonella can develop adaptive tolerance and potential cross/coresistance following repeated or sublethal exposure to PAA. These adaptations may involve genetic upregulation of oxidative stress response pathways, efflux systems, and modifications in cell membrane integrity, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of PAA use. Additionally, combinatorial treatments (e.g., PAA with UV-C, enzymes, or organic acids) show promise in enhancing efficacy while mitigating resistance risks. Despite recognition of PAA's safety and effectiveness, knowledge gaps remain regarding standardized resistance definitions, serotype-specific tolerance, and optimal intervention strategies in commercial settings. Therefore, there is a need for standardized testing protocols, robust studies on potential resistance, and further exploration of synergistic PAA applications to ensure sustained poultry product safety and public health protection.

37 - INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL AND ANALYTICAL C↗

DOE OSTI2025

Defining the Antitumor Mechanism of Action of a Clinical-stage Compound as a Selective Degrader of the Nuclear Pore Complex

Cancer cells are acutely dependent on nuclear transport due to elevated transcriptional activity, suggesting an unrealized opportunity for selective therapeutic inhibition of the nuclear pore complex (NPC). Through large-scale phenotypic profiling of cancer cell lines, genome-scale functional genomic modifier screens, and mass spectrometry–based proteomics, we discovered that the clinical drug PRLX-93936 is a molecular glue that binds and reprograms the TRIM21 ubiquitin ligase to degrade the NPC. Upon compound-induced TRIM21 recruitment, the nuclear pore is ubiquitylated and degraded, resulting in the loss of short-lived cytoplasmic mRNA transcripts and the induction of cancer cell apoptosis. Direct compound binding to TRIM21 was confirmed via surface plasmon resonance and X-ray crystallography, whereas compound-induced TRIM21–nucleoporin complex formation was demonstrated through multiple orthogonal approaches in cells and in vitro. Phenotype-guided optimization yielded compounds with 10-fold greater potency and drug-like properties, along with robust pharmacokinetics and efficacy against pancreatic cancer xenografts and patient-derived organoids.

Yuan, Linjie [Stanford School of Medicine, CA (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2020

Defect Kinetics and Control for Module Reliability

Potential induced degradation is currently one of the most important module degradation mechanisms. It has been suggested that stacking faults decorated with sodium from the module glass are responsible for this effect and authors have also shown the reversibility of this effect upon reverse biasing of the module. The importance of sodium in the failure mechanism is clear, however, little is known regarding the factors that control its diffusion into the wafer, making it nearly impossible to predict the performance of a given module and engineer it to be better. Sodium migration from module glass into silicon cells and the resulting module degradation is a clear example of how defect kinetics can determine overall module performance and long-term reliability. To the detriment of the industry and its bankability, no quantitative models yet exist to predict defect-assisted module degradation, limiting the progress in improving reliability. In particular, the understanding of defect behavior under high electric fields, under stresses imparted by encapsulation or temperature, and under real operating conditions over long periods of time is a crucial gap in the current state-of-the-art. In this work we developed a Defect-Device-Degradation model to predict defect behavior and its impact on device performance over the module operational lifetime using experimentally-determined defect parameterizations. The validated model will provide a platform for manufacturing process optimization across input materials and architectures to avoid deleterious defects upstream and enable enhanced module robustness.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

U.S. Domestic Security-by-Design: On Site Response Force Strategies

U.S. nuclear power facilities face increasing challenges in meeting dynamic security requirements caused by evolving and expanding threats while keeping cost reasonable to make nuclear energy competitive. The past approach has often included implementing security features after a facility has been designed and without attention to optimization, which can lead to cost overruns. Incorporating security in the design process can provide robust, cost- effective, and sufficient physical protection systems. The purpose of this work is both to develop a framework for the integration of security into the design phase of High Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGRs) that utilize pebble-based fuels and microreactors. Specifically, this effort focuses on integrating security into the design phase of a model HTGR and microreactor that meets current Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) physical protection requirements and providing advanced solutions to improve physical protection and decrease costs. A suite of tools, including SCRIBE3D©, PATHTRACE© and Blender© were used to model a hypothetical, generic domestic HTGR facility and microreactor facility. Physical protection elements such as sensors, cameras, barriers, and onsite response forces were added to the model based on best practices for physical protection systems. Multiple outsider sabotage scenarios were examined with four-to-eight adversaries to determine security metrics. The results of this work will influence physical protection system designs and facility designs for U.S. domestic HTGRs and microreactors. This work will also demonstrate how a series of experimental and modeling capabilities across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex can lead to efficient security systems that utilize an onsite response force. The conclusions and recommendations in this document may be applicable to all SMR designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Small Modular Reactor and Microreactor Security-by-Design Lessons Learned: Integrated PPS Designs

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Domestic Molten Salt Reactor: Security-by-Design

U.S. nuclear power facilities face increasing challenges in meeting dynamic security requirements caused by evolving and expanding threats while keeping costs reasonable to make nuclear energy competitive. The past approach has often included implementing security features after a facility has been designed and without attention to optimization, which can lead to cost overruns. Incorporating security in the design process can provide robust, economical, and effective physical protection systems (PPS). The purpose of this work is both to develop a framework for the integration of security into the design phase of a molten salt reactor (MSR) and show how to effectively design a PPS with a reduced staffing headcount. Specifically, this work focuses on integrating PPS design features into a developed facility layout by making minor modifications to building structures. A suite of tools, including Scribe3D©, PathTrace©, and Blender©, were used to model a hypothetical, generic domestic MSR facility. Physical protection elements such as sensors, cameras, barriers, and responders were added into the model based on defending the hypothetical MSR facility against a hypothetical design basis threat (DBT). Multiple outsider sabotage scenarios were examined, with adversary team sizes ranging from 4–8 to determine security system effectiveness. The results of this work will influence PPS designs and facility designs for U.S. domestic MSRs. This work will also demonstrate how a series of experimental and modeling capabilities across the Department of Energy (DOE) complex can impact the design and completion of security-by-design (SeBD) for small modular reactors (SMRs). The conclusions and recommendations in this document may be applicable to all SMR designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Time-Resolved Structural Measurement of Thermal Resistance across a Buried Semiconductor Heterostructure Interface

The precise control and understanding of heat flow in heterostructures is pivotal for advancements in thermoelectric energy conversion, thermal barrier coatings, and efficient heat management in electronic and optoelectronic devices. In this study, we employ high-angular-resolution time-resolved X-ray diffraction to structurally measure thermal resistance in a laser-excited AlGaAs/GaAs semiconductor heterostructure. Our methodology offers femtometer-scale spatial sensitivity and nanosecond time resolution, enabling us to directly observe heat transport across a buried interface. We corroborate established Thermal Boundary Resistance (TBR) values for AlGaAs/GaAs heterostructures and demonstrate that TBR arises from material property discrepancies on either side of a nearly flawless atomic interface. This work not only sheds light on the fundamental mechanisms governing heat flow across buried interfaces but also presents a robust experimental framework that can be extended to other heterostructure systems, paving the way for optimized thermal management in next-generation devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncertainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems: Preprint

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncertainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2026

A multi‐variable framework for selecting WRF physics configurations at convection‐permitting scales: An Amazon wet‐season case study

Tropical convection over rainforests modulates atmospheric circulation and the energy and hydrological cycles across multiple scales. However, the scarcity of observations still limits our understanding of these processes. Although numerical models are utilized to investigate atmospheric physical processes, their performance depends on the choice of parameterizations and grid resolution. Here, in this work, we introduce and apply a multi‐variable, multi‐physics framework to evaluate and rank the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF–ARW) configurations at 1‐km resolution over the central Amazon during the wet season. A 48‐member ensemble combines three land‐surface models (LSMs), four planetary boundary layer (PBL), and four microphysics (MP) schemes. Model performance for seven convection‐related near‐surface and boundary‐layer variables is assessed using Taylor diagrams and the Taylor skill score (TSS), analysis of variance (ANOVA)‐based sensitivity metrics, and non‐parametric rank tests. We then construct a combined, weighted TSS to identify configurations that are comparatively robust across variables. Results showed that most configurations reproduce near‐surface temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and boundary‐layer height reasonably well, whereas humidity and rainfall remain challenging. LSM choice has the strongest impact on the surface fluxes and a secondary influence on near‐surface temperature and humidity, PBL schemes dominate boundary‐layer height, and MP schemes exert the largest control on rainfall. No single configuration is optimal for all variables, but the combination of Noah (LSM), Yonsei University (PBL), and Morrison (MP) emerges as the most robust configuration for this case, with the WRF single‐moment six‐class scheme (WSM6) providing a competitive, computationally cheaper MP alternative. The framework is general and can be applied to other regions, seasons, and convective regimes.

Amazon rainforest↗

DOE OSTI2021

Universal dwell time optimization for deterministic optics fabrication

Computer-Controlled Optical Surfacing (CCOS) has been greatly developed and widely used for precision optical fabrication in the past three decades. It relies on robust dwell time solutions to determine how long the polishing tools must dwell at certain points over the surfaces to achieve the expected forms. However, as dwell time calculations are modeled as ill-posed deconvolution, it is always non-trivial to reach a reliable solution that 1) is non-negative, since CCOS systems are not capable of adding materials, 2) minimizes the residual in the clear aperture 3) minimizes the total dwell time to guarantee the stability and efficiency of CCOS processes, 4) can be flexibly adapted to different tool paths, 5) the parameter tuning of the algorithm is simple, and 6) the computational cost is reasonable. In this study, we propose a novel Universal Dwell time Optimization (UDO) model that universally satisfies these criteria. First, the matrix-based discretization of the convolutional polishing model is employed so that dwell time can be flexibly calculated for arbitrary dwell points. Second, UDO simplifies the inverse deconvolution as a forward scalar optimization for the first time, which drastically increases the solution stability and the computational efficiency. Finally, the dwell time solution is improved by a robust iterative refinement and a total dwell time reduction scheme. The superiority and general applicability of the proposed algorithm are verified on the simulations of different CCOS processes. A real application of UDO in improving a synchrotron X-ray mirror using Ion Beam Figuring (IBF) is then demonstrated. The simulation indicates that the estimated residual in the 92.3 mm × 15.7 mm CA can be reduced from 6.32 nm Root Mean Square (RMS) to 0.20 nm RMS in 3.37 min. After one IBF process, the measured residual in the CA converges to 0.19 nm RMS, which coincides with the simulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hund's coupling assisted orbital-selective superconductivity in Ba1-xKxFe2As2

While the superconducting transition temperature of hole-doped Ba_{1-x}K_{x}Fe_{2}As_{2} decreases past optimal doping, superconductivity does not completely disappear even for the fully doped KFe_{2}As_{2} compound. In fact, superconductivity is robust through a Lifshitz transition where electron bands become hole-like around the zone corner at around x=0.7, thus challenging the conventional understanding of superconductivity in iron-based systems. High-resolution angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy is used to investigate the superconducting gap structure, as well as the normal state electronic structure, around optimal doping and across the Lifshitz transition. Our findings reveal a largely orbital-dependent superconducting gap structure, where the more strongly correlated d_{xy} band has a vanishing superconducting gap at higher doping, aligning with the Hund's metal behavior observed in the normal state. Notably, the superconducting gap on the d_{xy} band disappears before the Lifshitz transition, suggesting that the Fermi surface topology may play a secondary role. We discuss how these results point to orbital-selective superconducting pairing and how strong correlations via Hund's coupling may shape superconducting gap structures in iron-based and other multiorbital superconductors.

FOS: Physical sciences↗