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NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions: Historically, IMM simulations support Science and Technology planning, Exploration mission planning, and ISS program operations by supplying simulation support, iMED data information, and subject matter expertise to Crew Health and Safety and the HRP. Upcoming release of IMM version 4.0 seeks to provide enhanced functionality to increase the quality of risk decisions made using the IMM through a more accurate representation of the real world system.

Myers, J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous direct freeform fabrication strategy for multi-axis additive manufacturing

Multi-axis additive manufacturing (M-AM) enables precise material deposition along both planar and curved layers, eliminating the need for support structures through a continuous material deposition approach. In contrast to conventional 2-dimensional planar layers constrained to a fixed building orientation, the deposition on freeform layers demands the specification of guided curves to determine material deposition directions which are no longer to be fixed to a build direction. There are challenges that arise when fabricating components with multiple “build” directions, necessitating the decomposition of geometries and the specification of guided curves for the resulting volumes. Furthermore, multi-axis systems introduce heightened challenges due to an increased degree of freedom in motion. Consequently, the potential risks of collision between the deposited geometry and the motion platform become a notable concern. This research proposes a freeform layering algorithm to address the challenge of seamless transitions between planar and curved layers in the process planning of M-AM. The algorithm computes 3D “printable” layers by leveraging topological information derived from the geometry to be built and integrates collision-free manufacturability considerations into the computational process. These accumulated volumes serve as a “substrate” and support volumes for subsequent deposition, allowing later layers to be built without the need for additional support material. In conclusion, the proposed method successfully devises a freeform layering approach suitable for intricate models that demand substantial support, thus enabling the fabrication of diverse geometries in a manner previously unachievable.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Current Status of Radiopharmaceutical Therapy

In radiopharmaceutical therapy (RPT), a radionuclide is systemically or locally delivered with the goal of targeting and delivering radiation to cancer cells while minimizing radiation exposure to untargeted cells. Examples of current RPTs include thyroid ablation with the administration of {sup 131}I, treatment of liver cancer with {sup 90}Y microspheres, the treatment of bony metastases with {sup 223}Ra, and the treatment of neuroendocrine tumors with {sup 177}Lu-DOTATATE. New RPTs are being developed where radionuclides are incorporated into systemic targeted therapies. To assure that RPT is appropriately implemented, advances in targeting need to be matched with advances in quantitative imaging and dosimetry methods. Currently, radiopharmaceutical therapy is administered by intravenous or locoregional injection, and the treatment planning has typically been implemented like chemotherapy, where the activity administered is either fixed or based on a patient’s body weight or body surface area. RPT pharmacokinetics are measurable by quantitative imaging and are known to vary across patients, both in tumors and normal tissues. Therefore, fixed or weight-based activity prescriptions are not currently optimized to deliver a cytotoxic dose to targets while remaining within the tolerance dose of organs at risk. Methods that provide dose estimates to individual patients rather than to reference geometries are needed to assess and adjust the injected RPT dose. Accurate doses to targets and organs at risk will benefit the individual patients and decrease uncertainties in clinical trials. Imaging can be used to measure activity distribution in vivo, and this information can be used to determine patient-specific treatment plans where the dose to the targets and organs at risk can be calculated. The development and adoption of imaging-based dosimetry methods is particularly beneficial in early clinical trials. In this work we discuss dosimetric accuracy needs in modern radiation oncology, uncertainties in the dosimetry in RPT, and best approaches for imaging and dosimetry of internal radionuclide therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Galactic cosmic ray simulation at the NASA space radiation laboratory – Progress, challenges and recommendations on mixed-field effects

For missions beyond low Earth orbit to the moon or Mars, space explorers will encounter a complex radiation field composed of various ion species with a broad range of energies. Such missions pose significant radiation protection challenges that need to be solved in order to minimize exposures and associated health risks. An innovative galactic cosmic ray simulator (GCRsim) was recently developed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The GCRsim technology is intended to represent major components of the space radiation environment in a ground analog laboratory setting where it can be used to improve understanding of biological risks and serve as a testbed for countermeasure development and validation. The current GCRsim consists of 33 energetic ion beams that collectively simulate the primary and secondary GCR field encountered by humans in space over the broad range of particle types, energies, and linear energy transfer (LET) of interest to health effects. A virtual workshop was held in December 2020 to assess the status of the NASA baseline GCRsim. Workshop attendees examined various aspects of simulator design, with a particular emphasis on beam selection strategies. Experimental results, modeling approaches, areas of consensus, and questions of concern were also discussed in detail. This report includes a summary of the GCRsim workshop and a description of the current status of the GCRsim. This information is important for future advancements and applications in space radiobiology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Security engineering: systems engineering of security through the adaptation and application of risk management

Information Technology (IT) Security Risk Management is a critical task in the organization, which must protect its resources and data against the loss of confidentiality, integrity, and availability. As systems become more complex and diverse, and more vulnerabilities are discovered while attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security. This paper describes an approach to address IT security risk through risk management and mitigation in both the institution and in the project life cycle.

security↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Potential for Inadvertent Human Intrusion at the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites on the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

This paper recommends an approach to inadvertent human intrusion (IHI) at the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMSs) on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). IHI analysis uses the consequences of an individual inadvertently contacting buried waste to set waste concentration limits for near-surface disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Regulatory agencies are increasingly applying risk-informed decision-making to LLW waste management (NRC 2006). Risk-informed decision-making combines scientific risk assessment with stakeholder values and perceptions to determine a level of acceptable risk. Risk considers not only the consequences of an event, but also its probability of occurring.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of the Corrosion Risks to a Double Shell Tank During the Selective Removal of a Cesium-rich Supernate Layer - 20227

The Direct Feed Low Activity Waste (DF-LAW) activity will provide the initial feed to the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant at the Hanford Tank Farm facility. Feed preparation for DF-LAW will be carried out in multiple double shell waste tanks (DST) utilizing the Tank Side Cesium Removal (TSCR) process. Tank AP-106 will be an integral part of the TSCR process and hence key to the DFLAW activity. Prior to being utilized for this purpose, the Cs-137 concentration levels in the AP-106 supernate must be reduced significantly. The AP-106 re-purposing process manages normal waste tank addition procedures such that waste acceptance criteria objectives for Cs-137 removal are achieved. As this process was being developed, several concerns regarding tank integrity during and after repurposing of Tank AP-106, and the associated tanks (i.e., AP-102, AN-101, and AP-108), were addressed. The potential corrosion degradation mechanisms identified based on process knowledge included: general and pitting corrosion, caustic stress corrosion cracking, concentration cell corrosion, and microbiologically induced corrosion (MIC). A systematic approach was undertaken to assess the risk of corrosion during the AP-106 re-purposing process. The assessment considered the initial and present condition of the tank, the service history of the tank, the environmental conditions created in each tank during each stage of the process, process timing, and corrosion testing and modeling that approximated tank conditions. Based on this information, recommendations were provided to minimize the exposure of the tank to corrosive conditions. These recommendations included time limits for each stage of the process, staging of corrosion inhibitor solutions should process delays occur, and waste sampling with potential chemistry adjustments at defined steps in the process. Additionally, recommendations for post-process supernate chemistry adjustments and tank inspections were put forth. The greatest risk for this process occurs during the manipulation of large quantities of Columbia River water (i.e., greater than 450,000 gallons) within AP-106, the associated tanks and the supporting infrastructure (i.e., transfer line piping). This risk becomes more pronounced if there is a process upset and the tank walls remain exposed to a corrosive condition longer than intended. As long as the river water is blended into the supernate in a timely fashion, and the waste is adjusted appropriately with corrosion inhibitors, corrosion may be minimized and the final condition of the supernate in AP-106 and the associated tanks is expected to be in compliance with corrosion chemistry requirements. Contingency plans will be made to minimize the impact of a process upset. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Natural Hazards Perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Science

This article is about the state of ICON principles Goldman et al. (2021), https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EO153180 in natural hazards and a discussion on the opportunities and challenges of adopting them. Natural hazards pose risks to society, infrastructure, and the environment. Hazard interactions and their cascading phenomena in space and time can further intensify the impacts. Natural hazards’ risks are expected to increase in the future due to environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate risks to inform the design and implementation of risk mitigation and adaptation strategies. Multihazard multisector risk management poses several nontrivial challenges, including: (a) integrated risk assessment, (b) Earth system data-model fusion, (c) uncertainty quantification and communication, and (d) crossing traditional disciplinary boundaries. Here, we review these challenges, highlight current research and operational endeavors, and underscore diverse research opportunities. We emphasize the need for integrated approaches, coordinated processes, open science, and networked efforts (ICON) for multihazard multisector risk management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1982

Analysis of space systems for the space disposal of nuclear waste follow-on study. Volume 1: Executive summary

The impact on space systems of three alternative waste mixes was evaluated as part of an effort to investigate the disposal of certain high-level nuclear wastes in space as a complement to mined geologic repositories. A brief overview of the study background, objectives, scope, approach and guidelines, and limitations is presented. The effects of variations in waste mixes on space system concepts were studied in order to provide data for determining relative total system risk benefits resulting from space disposal of the alternative waste mixes. Overall objectives of the NASA-DOE sustaining-level study program are to investigate space disposal concepts which can provide information to support future nuclear waste terminal storage programmatic decisions and to maintain a low level of research activity in this area to provide a baseline for future development should a decision be made to increase the emphasis on this option.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic failure assessment with application to solid rocket motors

A quantitative methodology is being developed for assessment of risk of failure of solid rocket motors. This probabilistic methodology employs best available engineering models and available information in a stochastic framework. The framework accounts for incomplete knowledge of governing parameters, intrinsic variability, and failure model specification error. Earlier case studies have been conducted on several failure modes of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Work in progress on application of this probabilistic approach to large solid rocket boosters such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor for the Space Shuttle is described. Failure due to debonding has been selected as the first case study for large solid rocket motors (SRMs) since it accounts for a significant number of historical SRM failures. Impact of incomplete knowledge of governing parameters and failure model specification errors is expected to be important.

Jan, Darrell L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Aerothermodynamic testing requirements for future space transportation systems

Aerothermodynamics, encompassing aerodynamics, aeroheating, and fluid dynamic and physical processes, is the genesis for the design and development of advanced space transportation vehicles. It provides crucial information to other disciplines involved in the development process such as structures, materials, propulsion, and avionics. Sources of aerothermodynamic information include ground-based facilities, computational fluid dynamic (CFD) and engineering computer codes, and flight experiments. Utilization of this triad is required to provide the optimum requirements while reducing undue design conservatism, risk, and cost. This paper discusses the role of ground-based facilities in the design of future space transportation system concepts. Testing methodology is addressed, including the iterative approach often required for the assessment and optimization of configurations from an aerothermodynamic perspective. The influence of vehicle shape and the transition from parametric studies for optimization to benchmark studies for final design and establishment of the flight data book is discussed. Future aerothermodynamic testing requirements including the need for new facilities are also presented.

Paulson, John W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Conjunction "Probability," "Possibility," and "Plausibility": A Categorization of Competing Conjunction Assessment Risk Assessment Paradigms

A number of different conjunction assessment (CA) risk analysis methods and metrics have been proposed in the critical literature, and they vary widely in purport and form. However, they tend to be proposed individually and episodically, so that it is difficult for a CA practitioner to take stock of the possibilities, under- stand their fundamental differences, and make informed choices for their particular CA risk assessment enterprise. The present study seeks to collect the major proposals for risk assessment methods and parameters and organize them categorically, under the proposed divisions of “probability,” “plausibility,” and “possibility,” as well as formulate what appears for each to be its fundamental question and, where applicable, null hypothesis. This activity can, through a bottom-up approach, provide some of the building blocks for an overarching CA philosophy, as well as establish concepts and terminology potentially useful to the broader discussion of these topics.

Hejduk, M. D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Conjunction “Probability,” “Plausibility,” and “Possibility”: A Categorization of Competing Satellite Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Paradigms

Hejduk, M. D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mitigating Impact Through Community-Engaged Flood Modeling

Urban pluvial flooding poses a growing threat to the city of Baltimore, driven by heavy rainfall, increased impervious area, and aging infrastructure. Adapting to the risks posed by pluvial flooding is critical for building greater climate resiliency in Baltimore's Inner Harbor Watershed. This study addresses these challenges through community-informed decision analysis, which uses hydrologic modeling and optimization tools to identify robust flooding adaptation pathways. We will collaborate with community partners to identify key concerns and objectives regarding flooding. These concerns have been purposefully built in to a combined surface-subsurface dynamic flow simulation model. Model outputs are used to identify flooding locations within the Inner Harbor, and to test adaptation methods. Machine learning will be used search for solutions which meet diverse environmental, financial, and social goals, and solution performance will be examined under a wide range of potential future climatic conditions and integrated with an adaptive planning approach. This novel set of adaptation pathways will enhance the City's capacity to respond to evolving pluvial flood risk.

climate resilience↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Design Heritage-Based Forecasting Methodology for Risk Informed Management of Advanced Systems

The development of next generation systems often carries with it the promise of improved performance, greater reliability, and reduced operational costs. These expectations arise from the use of novel designs, new materials, advanced integration and production technologies intended for functionality replacing the previous generation. However, the novelty of these nascent technologies is accompanied by lack of operational experience and, in many cases, no actual testing as well. Therefore some of the enthusiasm surrounding most new technologies may be due to inflated aspirations from lack of knowledge rather than actual future expectations. This paper proposes a design heritage approach for improved reliability forecasting of advanced system components. The basis of the design heritage approach is to relate advanced system components to similar designs currently in operation. The demonstrated performance of these components could then be used to forecast the expected performance and reliability of comparable advanced technology components. In this approach the greater the divergence of the advanced component designs from the current systems the higher the uncertainty that accompanies the associated failure estimates. Designers of advanced systems are faced with many difficult decisions. One of the most common and more difficult types of these decisions are those related to the choice between design alternatives. In the past decision-makers have found these decisions to be extremely difficult to make because they often involve the trade-off between a known performing fielded design and a promising paper design. When it comes to expected reliability performance the paper design always looks better because it is on paper and it addresses all the know failure modes of the fielded design. On the other hand there is a long, and sometimes very difficult road, between the promise of a paper design and its fulfillment; with the possibility that sometimes the reliability promise is not fulfilled at all. Decision makers in advanced technology areas have always known to discount the performance claims of a design to a degree in proportion to its stage of development, and at times have preferred the more mature design over the one of lesser maturity even with the latter promising substantially better performance once fielded. As with the broader measures of performance this has also been true for projected reliability performance. Paper estimates of potential advances in design reliability are to a degree uncertain in proportion to the maturity of the features being proposed to secure those advances. This is especially true when performance-enhancing features in other areas are also planned to be part of the development program.

Maggio, Gaspare↗

NASA NTRS2019

Developing an Air Quality Index for Microgravity Indoor Environments/Space Missions

Indoor pollution sources (on Earth) that release gases or particles into the air are the primary cause of air quality problems in indoor environments. The development of an adequate tool to understand pollution levels in a certain location is of high importance. This tool must be able to inform about the levels of pollution in a simple and understandable way but also, used to take a series of predetermined measures to protect the health of the exposed population. One of the most useful and up to date approaches for characterizing air pollution is the Air Quality Index (AQI). It is an easily-calculated powerful data-driven tool, that summarizes a complex phenomenon, such as air pollution, in straightforward indicators. The AQI system has been developed in different countries around the world, mainly for outdoor environments, based on the results of risk assessments, epidemiology studies, and current local air pollution regulations and standards.Air quality in microgravity indoor environments is of fundamental importance to crew health, with concerns encompassing both gaseous contaminants and particulate matter. Although the concentration of gases in the microgravity indoor environment is well studied, aerosols remain one of the major pollutants that affect air quality and has reported adverse health effects and hasn't been reported under these unique conditions. Earth-based AQIs can't be extrapolated to microgravity indoor environments due to different aerosol characteristics and altered lung deposition in low gravity.Concurrent with the aerosol-focused AQI effort, we assess and document how the process would apply for combining particles & gases into a composite index, with the ability to query each AQI independently. All this information can be combined in a spacecraft-specific AQI for future space missions and habitats. The objective of this work are to determine what areas of expertise will contribute, what research and data will be required, and explore the scope of effort needed to formulate a spacecraft AQI in addition to analyzing ISS aerosol sampling data and incorporate results from both aerosol Sampling experiments (the only relevant data available from space).

Sorek-Hamer, Meytar↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Guideline for the Management of Renal Stones in Astronauts

There are no specific guidelines for the management of renal stones in astronauts. Given the increased risk for bone loss, hypercalcuria, and stone formation due to microgravity, a clinical practice guideline is needed. Methods An extensive review of the literature and current aeromedical standards for the management of renal stones was done. The NASA Flight Medicine Clinic's electronic medical record and Longitudinal Survey of Astronaut Health were also reviewed. This information was used to create an algorithm for the management of renal stones in astronauts. Results Guidelines are proposed based on accepted standards of care, with consideration to the environment of spaceflight. In a usual medical setting, asymptomatic, small stones less than 7 mm are often observed over time. Given the constraints of schedule, and the risks to crew health and mission, this approach is too liberal. An upper limit of 3 mm stone diameter was adopted before requiring intervention, because this is the largest size that has a significant chance of spontaneous passage on its own. Other specific guidelines were also created. Discussion The spaceflight environment requires more aggressive treatment than would otherwise be found with the usual practice of medicine. A small stone can become a major problem because it may ultimately require medical evacuation from orbit. Thus renal stones are a significant mission threat and should be managed in a systematic way to mitigate risks to crew health and mission success.

Reyes, David↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Synthetic Failure Mode Generation for Resilience Analysis and Failure Mechanism Discovery

Traditional risk-based design processes seek to mitigate operational hazards by manually identifying possible faults and corresponding mitigation strategies—a tedious process which critically relies on the designer’s limited knowledge. Resilience-based design, on the other hand, seeks to embody generic hazard-mitigating properties in the system to mitigate unknown hazards, often by modelling the system's response to potential hazardous events. This work adapts this approach to the traditional risk-based design process to synthetically generate hazardous modes, by representing them as a unique combination of internal component health-states which can then be injected and simulated in a model of the system failure dynamics. The design process may then reduce the risk of unknown internal hazards by iteratively mitigating the effects of these modes. The performance of this approach is evaluated in a model of an autonomous rover, where cluster analysis shows that elaborating the space of synthetic faults in the drive system using this approach uncovers a wider range of possible hazardous trajectories and failure consequences within each trajectory. However, this increase in hazard information comes at a high computational expense, highlighting the need for advanced, efficient methods to search and sample the hazard space.

Simulation↗