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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Complex Decision-Making Applications for the NASA Space Launch System

The Space Shuttle program is ending and elements of the Constellation Program are either being cancelled or transitioned to new NASA exploration endeavors. NASA is working diligently to select an optimum configuration for the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond LEO large ]scale missions for the next several decades. Thus, multiple questions must be addressed: Which heavy lift vehicle will best allow the agency to achieve mission objectives in the most affordable and reliable manner? Which heavy lift vehicle will allow for a sufficiently flexible exploration campaign of the solar system? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will allow for minimizing risk in design, test, build and operations? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will be sustainable in changing political environments? Seeking to address these questions drove the development of an SLS decisionmaking framework. From Fall 2010 until Spring 2011, this framework was formulated, tested, fully documented, and applied to multiple SLS vehicle concepts at NASA from previous exploration architecture studies. This was a multistep process that involved performing FOM-based assessments, creating Pass/Fail gates based on draft threshold requirements, performing a margin-based assessment with supporting statistical analyses, and performing sensitivity analysis on each. This paper discusses the various methods of this process that allowed for competing concepts to be compared across a variety of launch vehicle metrics. The end result was the identification of SLS launch vehicle candidates that could successfully meet the threshold requirements in support of the SLS Mission Concept Review (MCR) milestone.

Lyles, Garry↗
NASA NTRS2012

Missions to Near-Earth Asteroids: Implications for Exploration, Science, Resource Utilization, and Planetary Defense

Introduction: In 2009 the Augustine Commission identified near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) as high profile destinations for human exploration missions beyond the Earth-Moon system as part of the Flexible Path. More recently the U.S. presidential administration directed NASA to include NEAs as destinations for future human exploration with the goal of sending astronauts to a NEA in the mid to late 2020s. This directive became part of the official National Space Policy of the United States of America as of June 28, 2010. NEA Space-Based Survey and Robotic Precursor Missions: The most suitable targets for human missions are NEAs in Earth-like orbits with long synodic periods. However, these mission candidates are often not observable from Earth until the timeframe of their most favorable human mission opportunities, which does not provide an appropriate amount of time for mission development. A space-based survey telescope could more efficiently find these targets in a timely, affordable manner. Such a system is not only able to discover new objects, but also track and characterize objects of interest for human space flight consideration. Those objects with characteristic signatures representative of volatile-rich or metallic materials will be considered as top candidates for further investigation due to their potential for resource utilization and scientific discovery. Once suitable candidates have been identified, precursor spacecraft are required to perform basic reconnaissance of a few NEAs under consideration for the human-led mission. Robotic spacecraft will assess targets for potential hazards that may pose a risk to the deep space transportation vehicle, its deployable assets, and the crew. Additionally, the information obtained about the NEA's basic physical characteristics will be crucial for planning operational activities, designing in-depth scientific/engineering investigations, and identifying sites on the NEA for sample collection. Human Exploration Considerations: These missions would be the first human expeditions to interplanetary bodies beyond the Earth-Moon system and would prove useful for testing technologies required for human missions to Mars, Phobos and Deimos, and other Solar System destinations. Current analyses of operational concepts suggest that stay times of 15 to 30 days may be possible at a NEA with total mission duration limits of 180 days or less. Hence, these missions would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while simultaneously conducting detailed investigations of these primitive objects with instruments and equipment that exceed the mass and power capabilities delivered by robotic spacecraft. All of these activities will be vital for refinement of resource characterization/identification and development of extraction/utilization technologies to be used on airless bodies under low- or micro-gravity conditions. In addition, gaining enhanced understanding of a NEA s geotechnical properties and its gross internal structure will assist the development of hazard mitigation techniques for planetary defense. Conclusions: The scientific, resource utilization, and hazard mitigation benefits, along with the programmatic and operational benefits of a human venture beyond the Earth-Moon system, make a piloted sample return mission to a NEA using NASA s proposed human exploration systems a compelling endeavor.

Abell, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Reduced Pressure Atmosphere Impacts on Life Support and Internal Thermal Systems

Selecting the appropriate atmosphere for a spacecraft and mission is a complicated problem. NASA has previously used atmospheres from Earth normal composition and pressure to pure oxygen at low pressures. Future exploration missions will likely strike a compromise somewhere between the two, trying to balance operation impacts on EVA, safety concerns for flammability and health risks, life science and physiology questions, and other issues. Life support systems and internal thermal control systems are areas that will have to respond to changes in the atmospheric composition and pressure away from the Earthlike conditions currently used on the International Space Station. This paper examines life support and internal thermal control technologies currently in use or in development to find what impacts in design, efficiency and performance, or feasibility might be expected. Understanding these changes should be helpful in producing better results during future trade studies or mission analyses.

Anderson, Molly↗
NASA NTRS2021

Expected Collision Rates for Tracked Satellites

This analysis estimates collision risks between tracked satellites based on the statistically expected collision rate _Nc and number of collisions Nc, which are closely related to the collision probability Pc. For isolated encounters, Nc equals Pc. For multi-encounter interactions, Nc can exceed Pc and is significantly easier to approximate semi-analytically. Estimating Nc requires integrating the collision rate over time throughout an interaction, with each required _Nc value calculated as a statistical expectation value based on the uncertainty distributions of initial orbital states. The uncertainty distributions are estimated from orbit determination analyses of satellite trajectory measurements. The formulation accounts for the nonlinear orbital motion of the satellites, and derives Nc and _Nc expressions for Monte Carlo simulations as well as semi-analytical approximations for single- and multi-encounter interactions.

Collision Rates↗
NASA NTRS2010

Colorimetric Solid Phase Extraction (CSPE): Using Color to Monitor Spacecraft Water Quality

In August 2009, an experimental water quality monitoring kit based on Colorimetric Solid Phase Extraction (CSPE) technology was delivered to the International Space Station (ISS). The kit, called the Colorimetric Water Quality Monitoring Kit (CWQMK), was launched as a Station Development Test Objective (SDTO) experiment to evaluate the suitability of CSPE technology for routine use monitoring water quality on the ISS. CSPE is a sorption-spectrophotometric technique that combines colorimetric reagents, solid-phase extraction, and diffuse reflectance spectroscopy to quantify trace analytes in water samples. In CSPE, a known volume of sample is metered through a membrane disk that has been impregnated with an analyte-specific colorimetric reagent and any additives required to optimize the formation of the analyte-reagent complex. As the sample flows through the membrane disk, the target analyte is selectively extracted, concentrated, and complexed. Formation of the analyte-reagent complex causes a detectable change in the color of the membrane disk that is proportional to the amount of analyte present in the sample. The analyte is then quantified by measuring the color of the membrane disk surface using a hand-held diffuse reflectance spectrophotometer (DRS). The CWQMK provides the capability to measure the ionic silver (Ag +) and molecular iodine (I2) in water samples on-orbit. These analytes were selected for the evaluation of CSPE technology because they are the biocides used in the potable water storage and distribution systems on the ISS. Biocides are added to the potable water systems on spacecraft to inhibit microbial growth. On the United States (US) segment of the ISS molecular iodine serves as the biocide, while the Russian space agency utilizes silver as a biocide in their systems. In both cases, the biocides must be maintained at a level sufficient to control bacterial growth, but low enough to avoid any negative effects on crew health. For example, the presence of high levels of iodine in water can cause taste and odor issues that result in decreased water consumption by the crew. There are also concerns about potential impacts on thyroid function following exposure to high levels of iodine. With silver, there is a risk of developing argyria, an irreversible blue-gray discoloration of the skin, associated with long term consumption of water containing high concentrations of silver. The need to ensure that safe, effective levels of biocide are maintained in the potable water systems on the ISS provides a perfect platform for evaluating the suitability of CSPE technology for in-flight water quality monitoring. This paper provides an overview of CSPE technology and details on the silver and iodine methods used in the CWQMK. It also reports results obtained during in-flight analyses performed with the CWQMK and briefly discusses other potential applications for CSPE technology in both the spacecraft and terrestrial environments.

Gazda, Daniel B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Structural Health Monitoring of the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge

A structural health monitoring (SHM) system can contribute to the risk management of a structure operating under hazardous conditions. An example is the Wing Leading Edge Impact Detection System (WLEIDS) that monitors the debris hazards to the Space Shuttle Orbiter s Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels. Since Return-to-Flight (RTF) after the Columbia accident, WLEIDS was developed and subsequently deployed on board the Orbiter to detect ascent and on-orbit debris impacts, so as to support the assessment of wing leading edge structural integrity prior to Orbiter re-entry. As SHM is inherently an inverse problem, the analyses involved, including those performed for WLEIDS, tend to be associated with significant uncertainty. The use of probabilistic approaches to handle the uncertainty has resulted in the successful implementation of many development and application milestones.

Yap, Keng C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Complex Decision-Making Applications for the NASA Space Launch System

The Space Shuttle program is ending and elements of the Constellation Program are either being cancelled or transitioned to new NASA exploration endeavors. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has worked diligently to select an optimum configuration for the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond low earth orbit (LEO) large-scale missions for the next several decades. Thus, multiple questions must be addressed: Which heavy lift vehicle will best allow the agency to achieve mission objectives in the most affordable and reliable manner? Which heavy lift vehicle will allow for a sufficiently flexible exploration campaign of the solar system? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will allow for minimizing risk in design, test, build and operations? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will be sustainable in changing political environments? Seeking to address these questions drove the development of an SLS decision-making framework. From Fall 2010 until Spring 2011, this framework was formulated, tested, fully documented, and applied to multiple SLS vehicle concepts at NASA from previous exploration architecture studies. This was a multistep process that involved performing figure of merit (FOM)-based assessments, creating Pass/Fail gates based on draft threshold requirements, performing a margin-based assessment with supporting statistical analyses, and performing sensitivity analysis on each. This paper discusses the various methods of this process that allowed for competing concepts to be compared across a variety of launch vehicle metrics. The end result was the identification of SLS launch vehicle candidates that could successfully meet the threshold requirements in support of the SLS Mission Concept Review (MCR) milestone.

Lyles, Garry↗
NASA NTRS1973

A program to reduce coronary heart disease risk by altering job stresses

This study reports the design, implementation, and evaluation of a program attempting to reduce job stress by improving person-environment fit with respect to job aspects such as work load, responsibility, and interpersonal relationships. In order to assess the effects of the program, measures of both stress and strain were collected at three points in time--just prior to the program, immediately after the program, and three months after completion of the program. Measures of strain included systolic and diastolic blood pressure, determinations of glucose, cholesterol, and uric acid in the plasma, job satisfaction, and job related self-esteem. The findings were interpreted in light of both program incidents within specific experimental groups and general aspects of the program common to the experimental groups. Additional analyses indicated that both good person-environment fit with respect to participation predicts to good fit with respect to other job aspects over a three month interval and that stress causes strain, rather than the reverse.

Campbell, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Installed Transonic 2D Nozzle Nacelle Boattail Drag Study

The Transonic Nozzle Boattail Drag Study was initiated in 1995 to develop an understanding of how external nozzle transonic aerodynamics effect airplane performance and how strongly those effects are dependent on nozzle configuration (2D vs. axisymmetric). MDC analyzed the axisymmetric nozzle. Boeing subcontracted Northrop-Grumman to analyze the 2D nozzle. AU participants analyzed the AGARD nozzle as a check-out and validation case. Once the codes were checked out and the gridding resolution necessary for modeling the separated flow in this region determined, the analysis moved to the installed wing/body/nacelle/diverter cases. The boat tail drag validation case was the AGARD B.4 rectangular nozzle. This test case offered both test data and previous CFD analyses for comparison. Results were obtained for test cases B.4.1 (M=0.6) and B.4.2 (M=0.938) and compared very well with the experimental data. Once the validation was complete a CFD grid was constructed for the full Ref. H configuration (wing/body/nacelle/diverter) using a combination of patched and overlapped (Chimera) grids. This was done to ensure that the grid topologies and density would be adequate for the full model. The use of overlapped grids allowed the same grids from the full configuration model to be used for the wing/body alone cases, thus eliminating the risk of grid differences affecting the determination of the installation effects. Once the full configuration model was run and deemed to be suitable the nacelle/diverter grids were removed and the wing/body analysis performed. Reference H wing/body results were completed for M=0.9 (a=0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 6.0 and 8.0), M=1.1 (a=4.0 and 6.0) and M=2.4 (a=0.0, 2.0, 4.4, 6.0 and 8.0). Comparisons of the M=0.9 and M=2.4 cases were made with available wind tunnel data and overall comparisons were good. The axi-inlet/2D nozzle nacelle was analyzed isolated. The isolated nacelle data coupled with the wing/body result enabled the interference effects of the installed nacelles to be determined. Isolated nacelle mm were made at M=0.9 and M=1.1 for both the supersonic and transonic nozzle settings. AU of the isolated nacelle cases were run at alpha=0. Full configuration runs were to be made at Mach numbers of 0.9, 1.1, and 2.4 (the same as the wing/body and isolated nacelles). Both the isolated nacelles and installed nacelles were run with inlet conditions designed to give zero spillage. This was to be done in order to isolate the boattail effects as much as possible. Full configuration runs with the supersonic nozzles were completed for M=0.9 and 1.1 at a=4.0 and 6.0 (4 runs total) and with the transonic nozzles at M=0.9 and 1.1 at a=2.0, 4.0 and 6.0 (6 runs total). Drag breakdowns were completed for the M=0.9 and M= 1.1 showing favorable interference drag for both cases.

Malone, Michael B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

A covariance realism process for NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) spacecraft is detailed. The GPM spacecraft is in a low earth orbit, and performs collision avoidance maneuvers few times a year. Currently GPM is below the International Space Station (ISS). So, in addition to cataloged debris objects, GPM must contend with smallsat/cubesat objects that are deployed from the ISS. Both operational scenarios require complete knowledge of the expected GPM prediction errors as a function of time. In this study, we present a method for generating realistic predicted covariance that uses linear propagation of the covariance with the addition of process noise. Further analyses are presented for the process noise ''tuning'' that generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Different tuning strategies are considered and compared via a Goodness-of-Fit testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance. SpaceNav's realistic covariance generation approach takes into account the contribution of predicted maneuver errors in the increased propagation uncertainty. Corresponding maneuver uncertainty is injected into the state uncertainty, and is used within the collision avoidance process to determine the collision risk for close approach events that follow a maneuver. This is a critical step in the maneuver planning process that provides the satellite operator with an accurate quantification of the collision probability for planned maneuvers. Using this information, an informed decision can be made to proceed with a maneuver if the collision risk is acceptable. This approach is validated by Monte-Carlo simulations and results are presented.

spacecraft uncertainty propagation↗
NASA NTRS2021

Yonkers Urban Development: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Identify Environmental and Social Drivers of Urban Heat Vulnerability and Model Urban Cooling Interventions in Yonkers, New York

The City of Yonkers, New York, is located directly north of the Bronx in Westchester County and currently hosts a population of nearly 200,000. In response to increasing hot-weather episodes, the risk of heat-related illnesses and mortality is disproportionately affecting neighborhoods in Yonkers historically subjected to race-based housing segregation. NASA DEVELOP collaborated with Groundwork Hudson Valley to determine regions within Yonkers that are experiencing the most intense urban heat island effects, identify and rank sociodemographic and environmental determinants of increasing community-level vulnerability, map these vulnerabilities as a combined vulnerability index, complete a proximity analysis of walkability to local cooling centers and health facility locations, and model potential cooling strategies. The study area consisted of Yonkers, NY and the analyses used data from 2015-2020 (June through August). The project utilized NASA Earth observation products including Landsat 4 and 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS). We assessed the benefits of different heat-mitigation scenarios by utilizing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model. Results from these analyses can be used by Groundwork Hudson Valley, supporting the New York State’s Climate Safe Communities Certifiable Planning Actions, expanding knowledge on the relationship between historic redlining and environmental equity, and informing their Climate Safe Neighborhoods initiative to identify and prioritize mitigation efforts to abate the worst impacts of extreme heat.

Jillian Walechka↗
NASA NTRS1998

Performance Testing of a Trace Contaminant Control Subassembly for the International Space Station

As part of the International Space Station (ISS) Trace Contaminant Control Subassembly (TCCS) development, a performance test has been conducted to provide reference data for flight verification analyses. This test, which used the U.S. Habitation Module (U.S. Hab) TCCS as the test article, was designed to add to the existing database on TCCS performance. Included in this database are results obtained during ISS development testing; testing of functionally similar TCCS prototype units; and bench scale testing of activated charcoal, oxidation catalyst, and granular lithium hydroxide (LiOH). The present database has served as the basis for the development and validation of a computerized TCCS process simulation model. This model serves as the primary means for verifying the ISS TCCS performance. In order to mitigate risk associated with this verification approach, the U.S. Hab TCCS performance test provides an additional set of data which serve to anchor both the process model and previously-obtained development test data to flight hardware performance. The following discussion provides relevant background followed by a summary of the test hardware, objectives, requirements, and facilities. Facility and test article performance during the test is summarized, test results are presented, and the TCCS's performance relative to past test experience is discussed. Performance predictions made with the TCCS process model are compared with the U.S. Hab TCCS test results to demonstrate its validation.

Perry, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding

Coastal flooding from storm surge is one of the most dangerous and damaging natural hazards that societies face. It was responsible for half of all hurricane related mortalities in the United States from 1963 to 2012, far more than any other factor. Coastal extreme water levels are increasing globally, mainly driven by rises in mean sea level. Sea level rise is also causing rapid increases in the annual number of shallow “nuisance floods” for low-lying neighborhoods. The objectives of this chapter are to review the latest knowledge on New York City flood risk from storms and tides, and to evaluate how climate change will affect this risk between now and the end of the century. Methods used by NPCC (2015) for assessing storm-driven extreme floods are generally repeated here, including the use of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA, 2013) baseline flood hazards (e.g., the 100-year flood(sup a)) and the methods for adding sea level rise and mapping the resulting hazard. New advancements include an innovative analysis of monthly tidal flooding based on a dynamic model, a broadened set of sea level rise scenarios supplemented with the Antarctic Rapid Ice Melt (ARIM) scenario (see Chapter 3), and sensitivity analyses that show how differing methods would affect our results. Wind is a primary factor for coastal storm surge, and a brief review is given in Appendix 4.A, with the latest scientific knowledge on what drives extreme wind events in the New York City area and how they may change in the future.

Orton, Philip↗
NASA NTRS2004

NRA8-21 Cycle 2 RBCC Turbopump Risk Reduction

This project was composed of three sub-tasks. The objective of the first task was to use the CFD code INS3D to generate both on- and off-design predictions for the consortium optimized impeller flowfield. The results of the flow simulations are given in the first section. The objective of the second task was to construct a turbomachinery testing database comprised of measurements made on several different impellers, an inducer and a diffuser. The data was in the form of static pressure measurements as well as laser velocimeter measurements of velocities and flow angles within the stated components. Several databases with this information were created for these components. The third subtask objective was two-fold: first, to validate the Enigma CFD code for pump diffuser analysis, and secondly, to perform steady and unsteady analyses on some wide flow range diffuser concepts using Enigma. The code was validated using the consortium optimized impeller database and then applied to two different concepts for wide flow diffusers.

Ferguson, Thomas V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Exploratory Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Levels, Ultrasound and Optical Coherence Tomography Measures of the Eye During ISS Missions

Enhanced screening for the Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome has been implemented to better characterize the ocular and vision changes observed in some long-duration crewmembers. This includes implementation of in-flight ultrasound in 2010 and optical coherence tomography (OCT) in 2013. Potential risk factors for VIIP include cardiovascular health, diet, anatomical and genetic factors, and environmental conditions. Carbon dioxide (CO2), a potent vasodilator, is chronically elevated on the International Space Station (ISS) relative to ambient levels on Earth, and is a plausible risk factor for VIIP. In an effort to understand the possible associations between CO2 and VIIP, this study explores the relationship of ambient CO2 levels on ISS compared to inflight ultrasound and OCT measures of the eye obtained from ISS crewmembers. CO2 measurements were aggregated from Operational Data Reduction Complex and Node 3 major constituent analyzers (MCAs) on ISS or from sensors located in the European Columbus module, as available. CO2 levels in the periods between each ultrasound and OCT session are summarized using timeseries metrics, including time-weighted means and variances. Partial least squares regression analyses are used to quantify the complex relationship between specific ultrasound and OCT measures and the CO2 metrics simulataneously. These analyses will enhance our understanding of the possible associations between CO2 levels and structural changes to the eye which will in turn inform future analysis of inflight VIIP data.

Schaefer, C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

Mankin, Justin S.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless if the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the NASA PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle Software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data, respectively. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. We determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.

Novack, Steven↗
NASA NTRS1994

First Order Reliability Application and Verification Methods for Semistatic Structures

Escalating risks of aerostructures stimulated by increasing size, complexity, and cost should no longer be ignored by conventional deterministic safety design methods. The deterministic pass-fail concept is incompatible with probability and risk assessments, its stress audits are shown to be arbitrary and incomplete, and it compromises high strength materials performance. A reliability method is proposed which combines first order reliability principles with deterministic design variables and conventional test technique to surmount current deterministic stress design and audit deficiencies. Accumulative and propagation design uncertainty errors are defined and appropriately implemented into the classical safety index expression. The application is reduced to solving for a factor that satisfies the specified reliability and compensates for uncertainty errors, and then using this factor as, and instead of, the conventional safety factor in stress analyses. The resulting method is consistent with current analytical skills and verification practices, the culture of most designers, and with the pace of semistatic structural designs.

Verderaime, Vincent↗