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An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale for post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of fire impacts on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify wildfire impacts on runoff generation. We consider the vegetation and soil disturbances as the primary contributors to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty and consider model sensitivity, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We evaluated the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration. Analysis of two events in central California shows that 1) the LAI assimilation has a greater impact on water balance; and 2) the soil scheme captures a range of outcomes, with substantial impacts on surface runoff for some ensemble members, which could affect flood potential.

Timothy M Lahmers↗

DOE OSTI2023

Voltammetric Measurement of Rates and Energetics for Surface Methoxylation of Si(100) in Methanol with Dissolved Electron Acceptors Using Si Ultramicroelectrodes

The steady-state voltammetric responses of n-type Si(100) semiconductor ultramicroelectrodes (SUMEs) immersed in air- and water-free methanolic electrolytes have been measured. The response characteristics of these SUMEs in the absence of illumination were modeled and understood through a framework that describes the distribution of the applied potential across the semiconductor/electrolyte contact using four discrete regions: the semiconductor space charge, surface, Helmholtz, and diffuse layers. The latter region was described by the full Gouy–Chapman model. This framework afforded insight on how relevant parameters such as the semiconductor band edge potentials, the reorganization energies for charge transfer, the standard potential of redox species in solution, the density and energy of surface state populations, and the presence of an insulating (tunneling) layer individually and collectively dictate the observable current–potential responses. With this information, the methoxylation of Si surfaces was evaluated by analysis of the change in voltammetric responses during the course of prolonged immersion in methanol. Here, the electrochemical data were consistent with a surface methoxylation mechanism that depended on the standard potential of redox species dissolved in solution. Estimates of the enthalpies of adsorption as well as the potential-dependent rate constant for surface methoxylation were obtained. Collectively, these measurements supported the contention that the rates of Si surface reactions can be systematically tuned by exposure to dissolved outer-sphere electron acceptors. Moreover, the data represent the quantitative utility of voltammetry with SUMEs for the measurement of semiconductor/liquid contacts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Coupled Plasma-Sheath Model for High Density Sources

High density, low pressure plasmas are used for etching and deposition in microelectronics fabrication processes. The process characteristics are strongly determined by the ion energy distribution (IED) and the ion flux arriving at the substrate that are responsible for desorption of etch products and neutral dissociation at the surface. The ion flux and energy are determined by a self- consistent modeling of the bulk plasma, where the ions and the neutral radicals are produced, and the sheath, where the ions are accelerated. Due to their widely different time scales, it is a formidable task to self-consistently resolve non-collisional sheath in a high density bulk plasma model. In this work, we first describe a coupled plasma-sheath model that attempts to resolve the non-collisional sheath in a reactor scale model. Second, we propose a semianalytical radio frequency (RF) sheath model to improve ion dynamics.

Bose, Deepak↗

NASA NTRS2008

Statistical Methodologies to Integrate Experimental and Computational Research

Development of advanced algorithms for simulating engine flow paths requires the integration of fundamental experiments with the validation of enhanced mathematical models. In this paper, we provide an overview of statistical methods to strategically and efficiently conduct experiments and computational model refinement. Moreover, the integration of experimental and computational research efforts is emphasized. With a statistical engineering perspective, scientific and engineering expertise is combined with statistical sciences to gain deeper insights into experimental phenomenon and code development performance; supporting the overall research objectives. The particular statistical methods discussed are design of experiments, response surface methodology, and uncertainty analysis and planning. Their application is illustrated with a coaxial free jet experiment and a turbulence model refinement investigation. Our goal is to provide an overview, focusing on concepts rather than practice, to demonstrate the benefits of using statistical methods in research and development, thereby encouraging their broader and more systematic application.

Parker, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio Vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: A Chesapeake Bay Case Study

The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4 C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

model predictions↗

DOE OSTI2026

Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Electric Grid Operations

The future of the grid will be powered by AI—or undermined by it. Artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping grid operations, improving fault detection, forecasting accuracy, and real-time optimization. As AI systems move closer to operational decision loops, however, they introduce new consequence pathways: expanded attack surfaces, model integrity risks, regulatory exposure, and human-automation challenges. This talk presents a consequence-driven framework for deploying AI responsibly in the electric grid. Attendees will gain practical strategies to strengthen resilience, boost reliability, and deploy AI securely — ensuring the grid of the future is not only smarter but safer.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2018

An Active Subspace Method for Accelerating Convergence in Delaunay-Based Optimization via Dimension Reduction

Delaunay-based derivative-free optimization, ∆DOGS, is an efﬁcient and provably-convergent global optimization method for the problems which has computationally expensive objection function and the analytical expression for the objective function is not available. ∆-DOGS is a novel optimization scheme in the family of response surface methods (RSMs); however, it suffers from the curse of dimensionality since the computational cost increases dramatically as the number of design parameters increases. As a result, the number of design parameters in ∆-DOGS algorithm is relatively low (n.10). To avoid such problems, this paper proposes a combination of derivative-free optimization, seeking the global minimizer of an expensive and nonconvex objective function f(x) and active subspace method, detecting the directions of the most variability using evaluations of the gradient. The contribution of other directions to the objective function is bounded by a sufﬁciently small constant. This new algorithm iteratively applied Delaunay-based derivative-free optimization to seek the minimizer on the d-dimensional active subspace that has most function variation. Inverse mapping is needed to project data from active subspace to full-model for evaluating function values. This task is overcome by solving an inequality constrained problem that curves the response surface of the objective function. The test results show that this strategy is effective on a handful of optimization problems.

Bewley, Thomas R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Convectively Induced Secondary Circulations and Wind‐Driven Heat Fluxes in the Surface Energy Balance Over Land

Increased resolution has enabled kilometer-scale weather and climate models to partially resolve secondary circulations, including horizontal convective rolls (HCRs) and cold pool gust fronts. Although these circulations are ubiquitous in convective boundary layers over land, their impacts on the surface energy balance are largely unknown. Doppler lidar and surface observations were combined with DOE E3SM land model experiments, revealing increased surface winds (5 m/s) and heat fluxes (50 W/m 2 ) in convergent branches of HCRs. Larger wind-driven flux responses (up to 150 W/m 2 ) were found along gust fronts. Surface energy balance shifts to accommodate wind-driven fluxes, reducing ground heat conduction and longwave cooling. Our findings from the US Southern Great Plains are broadly relevant to modeling convective boundary layers. In particular, widely used subgrid wind gust parameterizations were found to be physically inconsistent with resolved secondary circulations and could worsen climate prediction biases at kilometer-scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

On the Response of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager to the Marine Environment: Implications for Atmospheric Parameter Retrievals

A reasonably rigorous basis for understanding and extracting the physical information content of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) satellite images of the marine environment is provided. To this end, a comprehensive algebraic parameterization is developed for the response of the SSM/I to a set of nine atmospheric and ocean surface parameters. The brightness temperature model includes a closed-form approximation to microwave radiative transfer in a non-scattering atmosphere and fitted models for surface emission and scattering based on geometric optics calculations for the roughened sea surface. The combined model is empirically tuned using suitable sets of SSM/I data and coincident surface observations. The brightness temperature model is then used to examine the sensitivity of the SSM/I to realistic variations in the scene being observed and to evaluate the theoretical maximum precision of global SSM/I retrievals of integrated water vapor, integrated cloud liquid water, and surface wind speed. A general minimum-variance method for optimally retrieving geophysical parameters from multichannel brightness temperature measurements is outlined, and several global statistical constraints of the type required by this method are computed. Finally, a unified set of efficient statistical and semi-physical algorithms is presented for obtaining fields of surface wind speed, integrated water vapor, cloud liquid water, and precipitation from SSM/I brightness temperature data. Features include: a semi-physical method for retrieving integrated cloud liquid water at 15 km resolution and with rms errors as small as approximately 0.02 kg/sq m; a 3-channel statistical algorithm for integrated water vapor which was constructed so as to have improved linear response to water vapor and reduced sensitivity to precipitation; and two complementary indices of precipitation activity (based on 37 GHz attenuation and 85 GHz scattering, respectively), each of which are relatively insensitive to variations in other environmental parameters.

Petty, Grant W.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS1987

Response of stiffened panels for applications to acoustic fatigue

The surface protection systems of aerospace and aircraft structures are often constructed from discretely stiffened panels. This paper presents an analytical study on dynamic stress response of these structures to random surface flow and acoustic loads. To account for aerodynamic heating of high speed flow, thermal effects are included in the structural model. A generalized transfer matrix procedure is developed to obtain the required dynamic response solutions. Numerical results include spectral densities of stress, response root mean square values and fatigue damage for a variety of loading and thermal conditions.

Vaicaitis, R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermal model for time-domain thermoreflectance experiments in a laser-flash geometry

Time-domain thermoreflectance (TDTR) is a well-established pump–probe method for measuring thermal conductivity and interface conductance of multilayers. Interpreting signals in a TDTR experiment requires a thermal model. In standard front/front TDTR experiments, both pump and probe beams typically irradiate the surface of a multilayer. As a result, existing thermal models for interpreting thermoreflectance experiments assume that the pump and probe beams both interact with the surface layer. Here, we present a frequency-domain solution to the heat-diffusion equation of a multilayer in response to nonhomogeneous laser heating. This model allows analysis of experiments where the pump and probe beams irradiate opposite sides of a multilayer. We call such a geometry a front/back experiment to differentiate such experiments from standard TDTR experiments. As an example, we consider a 60nm amorphous Si film. We consider how signals differ in a front/front vs front/back geometry and compare thermal model predictions to experimental data.

Peng, Wanyue↗

DOE OSTI2023

Theoretical investigation of braking of tearing mode rotation by resistive walls in ITER

The locking of the 2/1 tearing mode to the resistive wall in the ITER tokamak (15 MA inductive scenario 2) is investigated theoretically using a cylindrical asymptotic matching model. The model takes into account the fact that ITER plasmas will effectively be surrounded by two walls; the inner blanket module layer with a time constant of about 23 ms, and the outer vacuum vessel with a time constant of about 380 ms. The model also takes cognizance of the fact that neither the blanket module layer nor the vacuum vessel can be accurately described as “thin” walls (in the ordinarily accepted sense). The model incorporates changes in both the plasma poloidal and the toroidal angular velocity profiles, in response to the electromagnetic braking torque that develops at the rational surface, because it turns out that neoclassical poloidal flow-damping is not strong enough to completely suppress changes in the poloidal velocity. Finally, the model accurately calculates changes in the poloidal and toroidal plasma angular velocity profiles by evolving the full angular equations of motion, taking the electromagnetic braking torque, plasma inertia, plasma viscosity, and poloidal flow-damping into account. The time required for the 2/1 tearing mode to grow from a small amplitude to a sufficient one to lock to the walls is found to be about 3.5 s. As a result, the critical full radial island width at which wall locking is triggered is found to be about 9% of the plasma minor radius.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2017

Ablation and Heating During Atmospheric Entry and Its Effect on Airburst Risk

Large meteoroids and asteroids entering the atmosphere endure tremendous heating from the shock heated air, and thereby lose a significant fraction of their mass during atmospheric entry a process known as ablation. The predicted evolution of the asteroids mass as it passes through the atmosphere can affect both the predicted energy deposition profile relevant to an airburst event, or the residual mass that strikes the ground in the case of an impact event. This presentation is divided roughly into two parts. In the first part, an overview of traditional models for heat transfer and ablation that are historically used in the meteor physics community is presented, and the validity in the asteroid entry regime discussed. Sensitivity analyses performed using the recently developed Fragment-Cloud Model (FCM) will be presented which show illustrate the range of sizes and entry parameters for which the predicted asteroid threat is most sensitive to the models for ablation and heat transfer. The second part of the presentation shall focus on recent work done under NASAs Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) to develop new models for heat transfer and ablation using high-fidelity numerical simulation in concert with state-of-the-art experiments. Coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD)radiation transport simulations preformed using the state-of-the-art entry modeling tools at NASA show that, for large meteoroids and asteroids, there can significant attenuation of the heat transfer to the surface (95 in some cases) by the products of ablation. In addition to the heat transfer, new models for the material response and ablation of asteroidal material have been developed [cite]. In the current work, we present finding from recent novel experiments performed in the arc jet facility at NASA Ames, which allows us to, in part, simulate the extreme environment experienced by the asteroid during entry. Briefly, the experimental set-up was comprised of a 1.5 conical article of machined H5 chondrite, which was exposed to a high-enthalpy flow resulting in approximately 4 kWcm2 of heating to the surface. A still frame capture from high-speed video taken during this experiment can be seen in Figure 1. In this figure, we can observe some of the major mechanisms for meteoroid ablation, such as melt flow, spallation (mechanical removal of material), and vaporization. Major findings from this, and other experiments will be discussed, as well progress on utilizing the data from the experiments to inform and develop improved models for ablation.

Asteroids↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leptodermic corrections to the TOV equations and nuclear astrophysics within the effective surface approximation

The macroscopic model for a neutron star (NS) as a liquid drop at the equilibrium is used to extend the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff (TOV) equations taking into account the gradient terms responsible for the system surface. The parameters of the Schwarzschild metric in the spherical case are found with these surface corrections to the known leading (zero) order of the leptodermic approximation a/R << 1, where a is the NS effective-surface (ES) thickness, and R is the effective NS radius. The energy density $\mathscr{E}$ is considered in a general form including the functions of the particle number density and of its gradient terms. The macroscopic gravitational component $Φ$(ρ) of the energy density is taken into account in the simplest form as expansion in powers of $ρ$ – $\overline{ρ}$, where $\overline{ρ}$ is the saturation density, up to second order, in terms of its contributions to the separation particle energy and incompressibility. Density distributions ρ across the NS ES in the normal direction to the ES, which are derived in the simple analytical form at the same leading approximation, was used for the derivation of the modified TOV (MTOV) equations by accounting for their NS surface corrections. As a result, the MTOV equations are analytically solved at first order and the results are compared with the standard TOV approach of the zero order.

Magner, A. G. [Institute for Nuclear Research, Kyi↗

NASA NTRS1993

Models of Neptune's smooth recurrent radio emission

The quantitative response of the Planetary Radio Astronomy (PRA) instrument to a wave with polarization ellipse of arbitrary shape and orientation, arriving at the antennas from any direction, can be determined. This capability is used to model the time variation of intensity and circular polarization over a range of radio frequencies for proposed radio-source locations and emission characteristics at Neptune. At frequencies below 400 kHz the observed variation of intensity, polarization, and phase are closely simulated in an offset tilted dipole magnetic field by conjugate sources at midlatitude with filled emission cones. The phase of emission at higher frequencies is reproduced by sources at lower latitude. Modeled wide-cone emission does not reach the spacecraft at the observed phase nor have the polarization sense observed before closest approach. Source-surface maps of apparent polarization for the period before closest approach when instrumental response is especially sensitive to source location is presented. The method is capable of extension to more realistic models of the magnetic field.

Sawyer, Constance↗

NASA NTRS1975

Electromagnetic reflection from multi-layered snow models

The remote sensing of snow-pack characteristics with surface installations or an airborne system could have important applications in water-resource management and flood prediction. To derive some insight into such applications, the electromagnetic response of multilayered snow models is analyzed in this paper. Normally incident plane waves at frequencies ranging from 1 MHz to 10 GHz are assumed, and amplitude reflection coefficients are calculated for models having various snow-layer combinations, including ice layers. Layers are defined by thickness, permittivity, and conductivity; the electrical parameters are constant or prescribed functions of frequency. To illustrate the effect of various layering combinations, results are given in the form of curves of amplitude reflection coefficients versus frequency for a variety of models. Under simplifying assumptions, the snow thickness and effective dielectric constant can be estimated from the variations of reflection coefficient as a function of frequency.

Linlor, W. I.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Effective elastic thicknesses of the lithosphere and mechanisms of isostatic compensation in Australia

The isostatic compensation of Australia is investigated using an isostatic model for the Australian lithosphere that assumes regional compensation of an elastic plate which undergoes flexure in response to surface and subsurface loading. Using the coherence between Bouguer gravity and topography and two separate gravity/topography data sets, it was found that, for the continent as a whole, loads with wavelengths above 1500 km are locally compensated. Loads with wavelengths in the range 600-1500 km are partially supported by regional stresses, and loads with wavelengths less than 600 km are almost entirely supported by the strength of the lithosphere. It was found that the predicted coherence for a flexural model of a continuous elastic plate does not provide a good fit to the observed coherence of central Australia. The disagreement between model and observations is explained.

Zuber, Maria T.↗