Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Reliability analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 541 records · Page 30

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis for a Photovoltaic Inverter

While PV panel reliability continues to increase, PV inverters become the limiting factor for PV system reliability. Consequently, it is critical to have a generic tool from a third party for PV inverter reliability assessment to help 1) utilities/PV farm operators schedule maintenance in advance, and 2) inverter developers improve the next-generation design. However, these two things cannot be accomplished without first understanding the reasons behind inverter failure. Following this idea, as the first step, it is essential to identify and investigate the most failure-prone components within a PV inverter system. After all, any system is only as reliable as the components that are contained within it. This motivates the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) work presented for this workshop. The FMEA is conducted as follows: first, the overview of the methodology on the development of the FMEA is presented; then, based on a top-down approach starting from the PV inverter system, critical inverter components with high failure rates are identified and summarized; afterward, a thorough FMEA study at a component-level is performed and its results, including failure modes, failure mechanisms, and critical stressors, are tabulated; finally, according to three rankings (chance of occurrence, severity of occurrence, and ease of detection prior to failure) for each failure mechanism provided by the FMEA, risk priority numbers are calculated and the failure mechanisms along with the critical stressors are ranked in terms of their potentially detrimental effect on the PV inverter.

Brown, Buck↗

Application of principal component analysis (PCA) and improved joint probability distributions to the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) for predicting extreme sea states

Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulations as a part of the standard current practice for designing marine structures to survive extreme sea states. These environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height (H s ) and either energy period (T e ) or peak period (T p ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) is a standard design practice for generating environmental contours. This paper develops enhanced methodologies for data analysis prior to the application of the I-FORM, including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the variables under consideration as well as new distribution and parameter fitting techniques. As a result, these modifications better represent the measured data and, therefore, should contribute to the development of more realistic representations of environmental contours of extreme sea states for determining design loads for marine structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Risk-Informed ATF and FLEX Analysis for an Enhanced Resilient BWR Under Design-Basis and Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents

This report documents the activities performed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2020 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed System Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research. The purpose of the RISA Pathway research and development is to support plant owner-operator decisions with the aim to improve the economics, reliability, and maintain the high levels of safety of current nuclear power plants over periods of extended plant operations. The concept of ERP refers to the combinations of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, and the incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, as well as improved fuel cycle efficiency. The objective of the ERP research effort is to use the RISA methods and toolkit in industry applications, including methods development and early demonstration of technologies, in order to enhance existing reactors’ safety features (both active and passive) and to substantially reduce operating costs through risk-informed approaches to plant design modifications to the plant and their characterization. One main focus of the FY 2020 efforts documented in this report was to extend the analyses conducted in FYs 2018 and 2019 for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to a boiling water reactor (BWR). The same analysis process, risk analysis approaches, and analysis tools as in the previous work for PWR were used for a generic BWR with near-term ATF cladding (i.e., Iron-Chromium-Aluminum [FeCrAl] cladding and Chromium [Cr]-coated cladding) designs under the postulated station blackout (SBO) and medium loss-of-coolant (MLOCA) accident scenarios. In addition, a FLEX model was developed and incorporated into a generic BWR probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model using the INL-developed software tool, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), to assess the risk impact from FLEX. The other main focus of the FY 2020 efforts was to advance analysis methods, including developing dynamic approach for FLEX human reliability analysis (HRA) using the INL-developed software tool, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD), as well as developing a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) method for evaluating costs and benefits of safety enhancements in nuclear power plants (NPPs). As a case study, the MCBE method was applied to evaluate the costs and benefits brought by FLEX implementation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Southwest Wind Power R&D Test Site Development at the National Wind Technology Center (CRADA CRD-12-00472 Final Report)

Southwest Windpower, Inc. (SWWP) has been designing and distributing small wind turbines for more than 22 years and is the recognized global leader in the design, manufacturing and distribution of small wind systems (400-3000 watts). The company has been a pioneer in the development of wind technology and has built and shipped more than 170,000 wind turbines to over 120 countries worldwide. Headquartered in Flagstaff AZ, SWWP has sales representatives in over 88 countries. Applications for SWWP systems include residential homes, commercial properties, micro grids, remote cabins, telecom transmitters, offshore platforms, water pumping and sailboats. In addition, U.S. Department of Defense uses SWWP’s products in Forward Operating Bases (FOB’s), USGS uses them for remote monitoring of glacier movements and the CIA uses them to provide power seismic monitoring. Today, SWWP plans development of new technologies to address distributed energy market needs and become even more aggressive in international markets. This strategy includes extensive Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (RDD&D) activities to improve existing production line into more simple, reliable, and cost-effective wind turbine systems. Important part of such activities is the field testing of the new systems, which should provide: (i) validation of the reliable operation of hardware and software; (ii) validation of numerical models of the system and its components; (iii) field comparison of various control and optimization strategies; (iv) customized reliability testing; (v) customized monitoring and analysis testing; and (vi) IEC certification testing (vii) filed demonstration of system performance and reliability. Such field testing facility should encompass multiple towers and appropriate data acquisition systems. SWWP is exploring to move part of the engineering department to Colorado, and execute its RDD&D strategies in this new location. Partnership with NREL will provide great insights into SWWP’s RDD&D processes and more efficient commercialization by utilizing NWTC as the field testing site, and working close with NREL personnel. NWTC is ideally suited to strain the design. NREL is very experienced with customized and IEC testing. During this project, Southwest Windpower aims to improve the value proposition of distributed renewable energy, and make it a competitive choice in the energy markets. As of today, more then 170,000 small wind turbines, manufactured in the U.S., are installed in more then 180 countries. With the improved value proposition, Southwest Windpower wants to create and address new market needs, substantially increase its sales domestically and internationally, which should have positive impact on the creation of American jobs, competitiveness of U.S. economy, export or U.S. products, and the use of renewable energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Facilitating Data Collection of Maintenance Events to Populate the Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD)

The Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD) is a collaborative project between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the University of Maryland, and hydrogen stakeholders to improve safety and reliability for hydrogen facilities by implementing component reliability data taxonomies that support hydrogen infrastructure failure rate analysis. The project aims to quantify failure rates of hydrogen components through high-quality data collection and analysis on root causes and maintenance needed. HyCReD provides a common database for cataloging hydrogen component failures which exists for reliability research in many other mature industries [2]. The database fills a gap for the hydrogen community by providing a scientifically rigorous approach to quantitative risk assessment (QRA), prognostic health management (PHM), and reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis. High level results will be aggregated and anonymized to protect company sensitive information; detailed results will be used to help address issues of hydrogen components. These advanced analytics will support accelerated deployment of hydrogen infrastructure by enabling better: design and safety of projects (safety codes and standards development), infrastructure reliability and cost (component failure rates, maintenance protocols), and component R&D needs (robust supply chain). A key to a successful HyCReD implementation is facilitating the ease of reporting and data quality in the database that can be used for analysis. Maintenance data was a previously identified gap in initial efforts to populate and validate the database taxonomies [3]. Collection of maintenance data will be instrumental in identifying failure modes and rates, identifying incipient component failures or reduced performance, cataloging best practices for maintenance routines and methods for prognostic health management, and quantifying the risk and effect of different failure modes. Several key priorities are identified for streamlined data collection to achieve quality and detailed failure data: Applicability, Ease of Use, Accessibility, and Information Security. The HyCReD team has now begun deployment of the database to several companies and groups that have signed non-disclosure agreements to facilitate the data collection of failures in industry hydrogen refueling station infrastructure. This paper will provide an update into the process of HyCReD deployment including the development of a coding guide for facility personnel to reference and ensure data quality and consistency from one station to another as well as implementation of contextually dependent data fields of system taxonomy and formatted entries to provide ease of use. The goal is to communicate the lessons learned from the roll-out to technicians and engineers in the field, and the addition of need for high level of security to protect all stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Semiconductor Reliability Testing Data Management

iT2 Technologies is a startup developing analytical software and creating automated workflow environment in the area of big data in IC reliability. The main beneficiaries of the iT2 software will be the semiconductor companies as they will see significant savings in terms of time and cost. They will be able to efficiently perform the analysis of large amount of reliability data. A better standard of reliability and quality will also lead to the improvement in public safety in consumer, automotive, medical, and military applications. Smarter and thorough testing will reduce the risk of faulty hardware getting into the hands of the end users. The software is being developed and designed within the United States and will help keep the prominence of US in the cutting edge of high tech space. iT2 is establishing strong relations with its potential customers thanks to its key players being involved in this industry for the past several years and, thus, having a deep understanding of the market. The target clients will be all major semiconductor suppliers such as Intel, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, OnSemi, and Broadcom and their customers including Apple, Cisco, IBM, HP, and Dell. The iT2 software will be used in a business-to-business environment for sharing engineering data and communicating results between these two classes of customers - some of which are participating in the beta testing of the iT2 software.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DAKOTA reliability methods applied to RAVEN/RELAP-7.

This report summarizes the result of a NEAMS project focused on the use of reliability methods within the RAVEN and RELAP-7 software framework for assessing failure probabilities as part of probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power plants. RAVEN is a software tool under development at the Idaho National Laboratory that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing tool for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. Dakota is a software tool developed at Sandia National Laboratories containing optimization, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification algorithms. Reliability methods are algorithms which transform the uncertainty problem to an optimization problem to solve for the failure probability, given uncertainty on problem inputs and a failure threshold on an output response. The goal of this work is to demonstrate the use of reliability methods in Dakota with RAVEN/RELAP-7. These capabilities are demonstrated on a demonstration of a Station Blackout analysis of a simplified Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR).

Swiler, Laura Painton↗

First-principles analysis of X-ray magnetic circular dichroism for transition metal complex oxides

X-ray magnetic circular dichroism (XMCD) is widely used for the characterization of magnetism of materials. However, information from XMCD related to the atomic, electronic, and magnetic structures is not fully utilized due to the lack of reliable theoretical tools for spectral analysis. In this work, the first-principles configuration interaction (CI) calculations for X-ray absorption spectra developed by the author were extended for the calculation of XMCD, where the Zeeman energy was taken into the Hamiltonian of the CI to mimic magnetic polarization in the solid state. This technique was applied to interpret the L{sub 2,3} XMCD from 3d transition metal complex oxides, such as NiFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} and FeTiO{sub 3}. The experimental XMCD spectra were quantitatively reproduced using this method. The oxidation states as well as the magnetic ordering between transition metal ions on crystallographically different sites in NiFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} can be unambiguously determined. A first-principles analysis of XMCD in FeTiO{sub 3} revealed the presence of Fe{sup 3+} and Ti{sup 3+} ions, which indicates that the charge transfer from Fe to Ti ions occurs. The origin of magnetic polarization of Ti ions in FeTiO{sub 3} was also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Western Interconnection Baseline Study

The purpose of the baseline study is to evaluate the degree to which current industry planning processes meet the national 2035 decarbonization goals for the Western Interconnection. This analysis serves as a comparative baseline for the scenario analysis conducted in the NTP Study using a Western Interconnection dataset that is readily available to industry. This baseline analysis differs from the production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis in the main NTP Study report (forthcoming). In particular, the analysis presented in this report reflects a business-as-usual future with an optimistic build out of specific planned transmission projects and foreseeable generation. In contrast, the NTP Study models a future generation and transmission expansion based on optimization from a capacity expansion model. The analysis presented herein also reflects a 2030 timeframe, whereas the main NTP Study production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis reflect a 2035 time frame. This baseline analysis utilizes industry’s most reliable data to account for future transmission projects across various stages of development, with a particular focus on those in the permitting stage. Additionally, it incorporates projections for changes in generation capacity (both additions and retirements). This baseline analysis outlines a probable trajectory, given current process and practice, for the future of the bulk power system with a horizon extending to 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

On the accuracy of Hipparcos using binary stars as a calibration tool

Stellar binary systems, specifically those that present the most accurate available orbital elements, are a reliable tool to test the accuracy of astrometric observations. We selected all 35 binaries with these characteristics. Our objective is to provide standard uncertainties for the positions and parallaxes measured by Hipparcos relative to this trustworthy set, as well as to check supposed correlations between several parameters (measurement residuals, positions, magnitudes, and parallaxes). In addition, using the high-confidence subset of visual–spectroscopic binaries, we implemented a validation test of the Hipparcos trigonometric parallaxes of binary systems that allowed the evaluation of their reliability. Standard and non-standard statistical analysis techniques were applied in order to achieve well-founded conclusions. In particular, errors-in-variables models such as the total least-squares method were used to validate Hipparcos parallaxes by comparison with those obtained directly from the orbital elements. Previously, we executed Thompson's τ technique in order to detect suspected outliers in the data. Furthermore, several statistical hypothesis tests were carried out to verify if our results were statistically significant. A statistically significant trend indicating larger Hipparcos angular separations with respect to the reference values in 5.2 ± 1.4 mas was found at the 10{sup −8} significance level. Uncertainties in the polar coordinates θ and ρ of 1.°8 and 6.3 mas, respectively, were estimated for the Hipparcos observations of binary systems. We also verified that the parallaxes of binary systems measured in this mission are absolutely compatible with the set of orbital parallaxes obtained from the most accurate orbits at least at the 95% confidence level. This methodology allows us to better estimate the accuracy of Hipparcos observations of binary systems. Indeed, further application to the data collected by Gaia should yield a standard procedure to compare both data sets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multi-operator Production Cost Modeling

As contiguous power systems are often operated by several regional system operators, optimization models have traditionally been designed to generate optimal system-wide scheduling decisions. This report introduces an approach to reflect the existence of multiple system operators making scheduling decisions within an interconnected power system. The approach is explicitly designed to reflect each operator's limited knowledge about other regions when making scheduling decisions. Detailed analysis using a modified IEEE Reliability Test System reveals that the approach mimics real system operations by providing imperfect information to each operator about external operations and external constraints. The approach scales to a 78,000-bus model of the Eastern Interconnection, where a regression analysis provides quantitative insight into which constraints cause inefficiencies when improperly managed in a multi-operator simulation. Because the approach generates distinct regional scheduling problems, unit commitment and economic dispatch simulations can be applied to individual regions and solved in parallel, enabling production cost simulations at a previously intractable scale.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Energy-Based Limit State Function for Estimation of Structural Reliability in Shock Environments

limit state function is developed for the estimation of structural reliability in shock environments. This limit state function uses peak modal strain energies to characterize environmental severity and modal strain energies at failure to characterize the structural capacity. The Hasofer-Lind reliability index is briefly reviewed and its computation for the energy-based limit state function is discussed. Applications to two degree of freedom mass-spring systems and to a simple finite element model are considered. For these examples, computation of the reliability index requires little effort beyond a modal analysis, but still accounts for relevant uncertainties in both the structure and environment. For both examples, the reliability index is observed to agree well with the results of Monte Carlo analysis. In situations where fast, qualitative comparison of several candidate designs is required, the reliability index based on the proposed limit state function provides an attractive metric which can be used to compare and control reliability.

Guthrie, Michael A.↗

CalWave Open Water Demo - FMEA Update Budget Period 2

The Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a qualitative reliability technique for systematically analyzing each possible failure mode within a hardware system, and identifying the resulting effect on that system, the mission, and the personnel. This submission includes an updated FMEA summary for CalWave's open water demonstration including pre- and post-mitigation results, hazard identification (HAZID) analysis, and component/function rooted FMEA.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

FORCE Regression Testing

Via programs including the Light Water Reactor Sustainability and Integrated Energy Systems, the U.S. Department of Energy has invested in the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) software framework (Idaho National Laboratory 2024a) for the technical and economic analysis of nuclear-integrated energy systems (IES). Nuclear IES expand the use of nuclear from traditional baseload electricity generation to a flexible and adaptive source of combined heat and power. Nuclear heat can be used in the production of a variety of energy currencies such as hydrogen and ammonia as well as other heat applications including water desalination and district heating. FORCE is designed with the intent to provide interconnected analysis tools that enable the accurate technical and economic assessment of specific nuclear IES configurations for individual energy markets. FORCE consists of three main analysis pathways: HYBRID (Idaho National Laboratory 2024b), which contains high-resolution physical models for IES; Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) (Idaho National Laboratory 2024c), which analyzes IES long-term economic viability; and Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA) (Idaho National Laboratory 2024d), designed for real-time control of IES via digital twins and optimal decision making, including autonomous and remote operation research. Development of the FORCE ecosystem is guided by three pillars: capability, which assures that the computational requirements of IES analysis are met by the software tools; reliability, which provides for consistent code performance and expected behaviors; and accessibility, which lowers the barrier to entry for using the software and accelerates analysis by users beyond the FORCE primary developers. Reliability of the FORCE ecosystem is established according to the American Nuclear Society?s Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA-1) program [American Society of Mechanical Engineers 1982], with specific levels of software quality assurance (SQA) within NQA-1 applied to each software tool in FORCE. As the tools within FORCE have matured, some integration algorithms to accurately connect the software tools for holistic analysis have been developed and deployed within the FORCE software repository. In accordance with NQA-1 standards, regression tests are required to guarantee the software performs consistently even when new capabilities are added to the software. In this report, we document the deployment of both unit tests, which test the consistent behavior of small pieces of the FORCE code base, as well as integration tests, which test the consistent performance of full use cases for the FORCE integration algorithms. We further document the encapsulation of these tests within a test harness, which collectively checks for each successful test completion on demand. Finally, we document the automation of the test harness using GitHub Actions [GitHub 2024], which require all tests succeed before any new capability or other changes can be added to the FORCE integration software

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Predictive Analytics for Hydropower Fleet Intelligence

A primary challenge in hydropower industry is the ability to maintain cost-competitiveness, reliability, and security of hydropower assets through evolving power system contexts and aging of the fleet. Maintaining cost-effective and reliable operations under these conditions is expected to require new modernization and maintenance paradigms for changing contexts. Changes in existing practices for O&M will require an understanding of the current state and health of hydropower assets, and the impact of changing paradigms on asset health and reliability. The Hydropower Fleet Intelligence project is developing and evaluating standardized methodologies and analysis tools for data-driven asset reliability and management technologies for hydropower, leading to eventual predictive maintenance planning, repair/replacement decision making, and asset-reliability and cost-optimized operations. A key question is the feasibility of using existing data sets at hydropower facilities to perform assessments of asset reliability. This document uses data from hydropower facilities to assess the potential for using available analytics methods for asset reliability estimates. In addition to reliability assessments, the feasibility of using existing analytics techniques for several other potential applications is discussed. Finally, a case study that a data-driven model is trained to learn nominal operations via vibration data from an asset of a certain plant, and then utilized to identify anomalies on a similar asset from a different plant, highlighting the generic use of proposed Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) approaches.

Yucesan, Yigit↗

Spatiotemporal and Statistical Mapping of Transition Metal Equilibria in Alkaline Media

Transition metal dissolution and redeposition (D/R) kinetics in alkaline media play a critical role in various chemical and electrochemical processes. Competitive reaction kinetics between different transition metals can modulate individual metal behavior in these processes. To date, these phenomena have remained largely unmeasured, and even when captured, they are difficult to statistically characterize due to their dynamic nature, simultaneous occurrence, and spatially heterogeneous nature. Here, in this study, we develop a statistical analysis framework based on in situ and operando X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) to investigate the relative D/R kinetics of multiple transition metals in alkaline media. By employing statistical analysis, we quantify the spatial distribution of D/R species and assess the rate at which the system reaches equilibrium under varying reaction conditions. We show that pH does not simply change the rate of dissolution and redeposition, but reorganizes the cross-element kinetic correlations among Ni, Fe, and Mn and accelerates the spatial equilibration of D/R events, as quantified through correlation analysis, reaction-rate estimation, probability function distributions, and texture-based monitoring statistics. Additionally, we demonstrate how modifying the solvent environment can influence D/R kinetics, providing a pathway for tuning materials synthesis and process optimization. Our study offers valuable insights into the complex interplay between different transition metals and provides a reliable statistical framework for spatial analysis of diverse imaging data sets, enabling deeper extraction of latent information across multiple modalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗