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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Directional Superradiance in a Driven Ultracold Atomic Gas in Free Space

Ultracold atomic systems are among the most promising platforms that have the potential to shed light on the complex behavior of many-body quantum systems. One prominent example is the case of a dense ensemble illuminated by a strong coherent drive while interacting via dipole-dipole interactions. Despite being subjected to intense investigations, this system retains many open questions. A recent experiment carried out in a pencil-shaped geometry [Ferioli Nat. Phys. 19, 1345 (2023)] has reported measurements that have seemed consistent with the emergence of strong collective effects in the form of a “superradiant” phase transition in free space, when looking at the light-emission properties in the forward direction. Motivated by the experimental observations, we carry out a systematic theoretical analysis of the steady-state properties of the system as a function of the driving strength and atom number N . We observe signatures of collective effects in the weak-driving regime, which disappear with increasing drive strength as the system evolves into a single-particle-like mixed state comprised of randomly aligned dipoles. Although the steady state features some similarities to the reported superradiant-to-normal nonequilibrium transition, also known as cooperative resonance fluorescence, we observe significant qualitative and quantitative differences, including a different scaling of the critical drive parameter (from N to N ). We validate the applicability of a mean-field treatment to capture the steady-state dynamics under currently accessible conditions. Furthermore, we develop a simple theoretical model that explains the scaling properties by accounting for interaction-induced inhomogeneous effects and spontaneous emission, which are intrinsic features of interacting disordered arrays in free space. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Agarwal, Sanaa (ORCID:0000000336863804)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pump-probe spectroscopy of chiral vibrational dynamics

A planar molecule may become chiral upon excitation of an out-of-plane vibration, changing its handedness during half a vibrational period. When exciting such a vibration in an ensemble of randomly oriented molecules with an infrared laser, half of the molecules will undergo the vibration phase-shifted by π compared to the other half, and no net chiral signal is observed. This symmetry can be broken by exciting the vibrational motion with a Raman transition in the presence of a static electric field. Subsequent ionization of the vibrating molecules by an extreme ultraviolet pulse probes the time-dependent net handedness via the photoelectron circular dichroism. Our proposal for pump-probe spectroscopy of molecular chirality, based on quantum-chemical theory and discussed for the example of the carbonyl chlorofluoride molecule, is feasible with current experimental technology.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interlaboratory Study of Digital Volume Correlation Error Due to X-Ray Computed Tomography Equipment and Scan Parameters: an Update from the DVC Challenge

Background: The quality of Digital Volume Correlation (DVC) full-field displacement measurements depends directly on the characteristics of the X-ray Computed Tomography (XCT) equipment, and scan procedures used to acquire the tomographic images. Objective: In this work, we seek to experimentally study the effects of XCT equipment and tomographic scan procedures on the quality of these images for DVC analysis, and to survey the level of DVC error that may be achieved using standard XCT operating procedures. Methods: Six participants in an interlaboratory study acquired high-quality XCT scans of a syntactic foam before and after rigid body motion. The resulting images were correlated using commercial DVC software to quantify error sources due to random image noise, reconstruction artifacts, as well as systematic spatial or temporal distortion. Results: In the absence of rigid body motion, the standard deviation of the displacement measurements ranged from 0.012 to 0.043 voxels using a moderate subvolume size, indicating that subvoxel measurement resolution could readily be achieved with a variety of XCT equipment and scan recipes. Comparison of consecutive scans without rigid body motion showed transient dilatational displacement gradients due to self-heating of the X-ray source and/or thermal expansion of the foam. Evaluation of the scans after rigid body motion showed significant, machine-specific spatial distortion in the displacement fields of up to 0.5 voxels; new approaches to remove this error need to be developed. Conclusions: Analysis of the scan protocols used in the interlaboratory study, as well as a complementary parametric sensitivity study, showed that the DVC error was strongly influenced by the XCT equipment, but could be mitigated by adjusting the total scan duration.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Austenitic parent grain reconstruction in martensitic steel using deep learning

In this work we develop a deep convolutional architecture to estimate the prior austenite structure from observed martensite electron backscatter diffraction micrographs. A novel data augmentation strategy randomizes the global reference coordinate system which makes it possible to train our model from only four micrographs. The model is much faster than algorithmic approaches and generalizes well when applied to micrographs of a different material. Empirical evidence suggests the efficacy of the model depends on the scale of the microstructure and receptive field of the vision model. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that modern computer vision approaches are well suited for capturing complex spatial-orientation patterns present in orientation imaging micrographs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

W$^+$W$^-$ boson pair production in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} =$ 13 TeV

A measurement of the W+W- boson pair production cross section in proton-proton collisions at s=13 TeV is presented. The data used in this study are collected with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb-1. The W+W- candidate events are selected by requiring two oppositely charged leptons (electrons or muons). Two methods for reducing background contributions are employed. In the first one, a sequence of requirements on kinematic quantities is applied allowing a measurement of the total production cross section, 117.6±6.8 pb, which agrees well with the theoretical prediction. Fiducial cross sections are also reported for events with zero or one jet, and the change in the zero-jet fiducial cross section with the jet transverse momentum threshold is measured. Normalized differential cross sections are reported within the fiducial region. A second method for suppressing background contributions employs two random forest classifiers. The analysis based on this method includes a measurement of the total production cross section and also a measurement of the normalized jet multiplicity distribution in W+W- events. Finally, a dilepton invariant mass distribution is used to probe for physics beyond the standard model in the context of an effective field theory, and constraints on the presence of dimension-6 operators are derived.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperature Record

The published 95% uncertainty of the global surface air-temperature anomaly (GSATA) record through 1980 is impossibly less than the 2σ = ±0.25 °C lower limit of laboratory resolution of 1 °C/division liquid-in-glass (LiG) thermometers. The ~0.7 °C/century Joule-drift of lead- and soft-glass thermometer bulbs renders unreliable the entire historical air-temperature record through the 19th century. A circa 1900 Baudin meteorological spirit thermometer bulb exhibited intense Pb X-ray emission lines (10.55, 12.66, and 14.76 keV). Uncorrected LiG thermometer non-linearity leaves 1σ = ±0.27 °C uncertainty in land-surface air temperatures prior to 1981. The 2σ = ±0.43 °C from LiG resolution and non-linearity obscures most of the 20th century GSATA trend. Systematic sensor-measurement errors are highly pair-wise correlated, possibly across hundreds of km. Non-normal distributions of bucket and engine-intake difference SSTs disconfirm the assumption of random measurement error. Semivariogram analysis of ship SST measurements yields half the error difference mean, ±½Δε 1,2, not the error mean. Transfer-function adjustment following a change of land station air-temperature sensor eliminates measurement independence and forward-propagates the antecedent uncertainty. LiG resolution limits, non-linearity, and sensor field calibrations yield GSATA mean ±2σ RMS uncertainties of, 1900–1945, ±1.7 °C; 1946–1980, ±2.1 °C; 1981–2004, ±2.0 °C; and 2005–2010, ±1.6 °C. Finally, the 20th century (1900–1999) GSATA, 0.74 ± 1.94 °C, does not convey any information about rate or magnitude of temperature change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset for scientific paper "Simulated plant‑mediated oxygen input has strong impacts on fine‑scale porewater biogeochemistry and weak impacts on integrated methane fluxes in coastal wetlands", a modeling study based on field observation at the tidal salt marshes of the Parker River Estuary, Massachusetts, United States

This dataset is the raw and processed data for the paper "Simulated plant ‑ mediated oxygen input has strong impacts on fine ‑ scale porewater biogeochemistry and weak impacts on integrated methane fluxes in coastal wetlands". This study investigated how plant-mediated oxygen input affects subsurface biogeochemical reactions of organic carbon degradation and the resulting methane emissions of coastal wetlands by model simulation. We used the subsurface geochemical simulator PFLOTRAN for the modeling, which produced the simulated changes in porewater chemical substances and methane emissions over 10 days under different scenarios of plant-mediated oxygen input.Specifically, this dataset contains: 1) the input files for PFLOTRAN of all simulation runs conducted in this study. Those files are with an extension of ".in", containing information of the biogeochemical reaction network (stoichiometry, reaction rate, Monod constants, etc), fluid flow rate and oxygen concentration in the fluid which together simulated the plant-mediated oxygen input, the configuration of artificial reactions that simulated the methane fluxes, etc. The PFLOTRAN input files are text files, which can be opened by NotePad, but running these input files will require proper installation of PFLOTRAN (instruction: https://documentation.pflotran.org/user_guide/how_to/installation/installation.html). 2) the raw and processed model output from PFLOTRAN of all simulation runs, and 3) the python scripts used to process the raw model output, including random allocation of root cells, converting raw data into organized formats, calculating the methane fluxes based on the model output, data visualization, etc. The raw and processed model output from PFLOTRAN are in .spydata format, which can be viewed with Python. and 3) the python scripts for data processing and analysis are programming scripts, which can be opened with Python.This modeling work, in particular the model parameterization of root density and initial conditions of porewater concentrations of biogeochemical substances, was based on field measurements at the salt marsh of the Upper Parker River Estuary, Massachusetts, United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-biased magnetoelectric switching at room temperature in three-phase ferroelectric–antiferromagnetic–ferrimagnetic nanocomposites

Magnetoelectric systems could be used to develop magnetoelectric random access memory and microsensor devices. One promising system is the two-phase 3-1-type multiferroic nanocomposite in which a one-dimensional magnetic column is embedded in a three-dimensional ferroelectric matrix. However, it suffers from a number of limitations including unwanted leakage currents and the need for biasing with a magnetic field. Here we show that the addition of an antiferromagnet to a 3-1-type multiferroic nanocomposite can lead to a large, self-biased magnetoelectric effect at room temperature. Our three-phase system is composed of a ferroelectric Na 0.5 Bi 0.5 TiO 3 matrix in which ferrimagnetic NiFe 2 O 4 nanocolumns coated with antiferromagnetic p-type NiO are embedded. This system, which is self-assembled, exhibits a magnetoelectric coefficient of up to 1.38 × 10 –9 s m –1 , which is large enough to switch the magnetic anisotropy from the easy axis (K eff = 0.91 × 10 4 J m –3 ) to the easy plane (K eff = –1.65 × 10 4 J m –3 ).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non-magnetic ion site disorder effects on the quantum magnetism of a spin-1/2 equilateral triangular lattice antiferromagnet

Here, with the motivation to study how non-magnetic ion site disorder affects the quantum magnetism of Ba 3 CoSb 2 O 9 , a spin-1/2 equilateral triangular lattice antiferromagnet, we performed DC and AC susceptibility, specific heat, elastic and inelastic neutron scattering measurements on single crystalline samples of Ba 2.87 Sr 0.13 CoSb 2 O 9 with Sr doping on non-magnetic Ba 2+ ion sites. The results show that Ba 2.87 Sr 0.13 CoSb 2 O 9 exhibits (i) a two-step magnetic transition at 2.7 K and 3.3 K, respectively; (ii) a possible canted 120 degree spin structure at zero field with reduced ordered moment as 1.24 μ B /Co; (iii) a series of spin state transitions for both H∥ab-plane and H∥c-axis. For H∥ab-plane, the magnetization plateau feature related to the up–up–down phase is significantly suppressed; (iv) an inelastic neutron scattering spectrum with only one gapped mode at zero field, which splits to one gapless and one gapped mode at 9 T. All these features are distinctly different from those observed for the parent compound Ba 3 CoSb 2 O 9 , which demonstrates that the non-magnetic ion site disorder (the Sr doping) plays a complex role on the magnetic properties beyond the conventionally expected randomization of the exchange interactions. We propose the additional effects including the enhancement of quantum spin fluctuations and introduction of a possible spatial anisotropy through the local structural distortions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistics of internal stress fluctuations in dislocated crystals and relevance to density-based dislocation dynamics models

A statistical analysis of internal stress fluctuations, defined as the difference between the local mean stress and stress on dislocations, is presented for deforming crystals with 3D discrete dislocation systems. Dislocation realizations are generated using dislocation dynamics simulations and the associated stress field is computed as a superposition of a regularized stress field of dislocation lines within the domain of the solution and a complementary stress field computed via a finite-element boundary value problem. The internal stress fluctuations of interest are defined by an ensemble of the difference between the stress on dislocation lines and the local mean field stress in the crystal. The latter is established in a piecewise fashion over small voxels in the crystal thus allowing the difference between the local average stress and stress on segments to be easily estimated. The results show that the Schmid stress (resolved shear stress) and Escaig stress fluctuations on various slip systems sampled over a random set of points follow a Cauchy (Lorentz) distribution at all strain levels, with the amplitude and width of the distribution being dependent on the strain. Finally, the implications of the Schmid and Escaig internal stress fluctuations are discussed from the points of view of dislocation cross-slip and the dislocation motion in continuum dislocation dynamics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic theory of particle-in-cell simulation plasma and the ensemble averaging technique

Abstract We derive the kinetic theory of fluctuations in physically and numerically stable particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of electrostatic plasmas. The starting point is the single-time correlation at the start of the simulation between the statistical fluctuations of the weighted densities of macroparticle centers in the plasma particle phase-space. The fluctuations are associated with different initial conditions, typically due to the random initial conditions (in velocity space) of the macroparticles/simulation plasma, assigned according to their initial distribution of probability. The single-time correlations at all time steps and in each spatial grid cell are then determined from the Laplace–Fourier transforms of the discretized Klimontovich-like equation for the macroparticles and Maxwell’s equations for the fields, as computed by modern PIC codes. We recover the expressions for the electrostatic field and the plasma particle density fluctuation autocorrelation spectra as well as the kinetic equations describing the average evolution of PIC-simulated plasma particles, first derived by Langdon (1970b Proc. 4th Conf. Numerical Simulation of Plasmas ) using a test macroparticle approach perturbing a discretized Vlasovian plasma and then averaging the obtained physical quantity over the initial macroparticle velocity distribution. We generalize and extend these results to the modern algorithms in PIC codes using arbitrary macroparticle weights. Analytical estimates of statistical fluctuation amplitudes are derived as a function of the plasma simulation parameters, using the central limit theorem in the limit of a large number of macroparticles per cell. The theory is then used to analyze the ensemble averaging technique of PIC simulations where statistical averages are performed over ensembles of PIC simulations, modeling the same plasma physics problem but using different statistical realizations of the initial distribution functions of the macroparticles. This method is illustrated by linear Landau damping uncovering (from noise, which is usually considered numerical) the physical fluctuations driven by a single small amplitude electrostatic wave perturbing a PIC simulation plasma in equilibrium.

fluctuations correlations↗
DOE OSTI2021

Information Leakage Analysis using a Co-design-Based Fault Injection Technique on a RISC-V Microprocessor

The RISC-V instruction set architecture open licensing policy has spawned a hive of development activity, making a range of implementations publicly available. The environments in which RISC-V operates have expanded correspondingly, driving the need for a generalized approach to evaluating the reliability of RISC-V implementations under adverse operating conditions or after normal wear-out periods. Fault injection (FI) refers to the process of changing the state of registers or wires, either permanently or momentarily, and then observing execution behavior. The analysis provides insight into the development of countermeasures that protect against the leakage or corruption of sensitive information which might occur because of unexpected execution behavior. In this paper, we develop a hardware-software co-design architecture that enables fast, configurable fault emulation and utilize it for information leakage and data corruption analysis. Modern System-on-chip FPGAs enable building an evaluation platform where control elements run on a processor(s) (PS) simultaneously with the target design running in the programmable logic (PL). Software components of the FI system introduce faults and report execution behavior. A pair of RISC-V FI-instrumented implementations are created and configured to execute the Advanced Encryption Standard and Twister algorithms. Key and plaintext information leakage and degraded pseudo-random sequences are both observed in the output for a subset of the emulated faults.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Binary pseudo-random array standards for calibration of 3D optical surface profilers used for metrology with significantly curved x-ray optics

High-accuracy metrology is vitally important in manufacturing ultra-high-quality free-form mirrors designed to manipulate X-ray light with nanometer-scale wavelengths. The current capabilities and possibility for improvements in X-ray mirror manufacturing are limited by inherent imperfections of the integrated metrology tools. In the case of Fizeau interferometry, metrology tools are currently calibrated with super-polished flat test-standard/reference mirrors. This is acceptable for measuring slightly curved X-ray optics. However, for even moderately curved aspherical X-ray mirrors the flat-reference calibration is not sufficiently accurate and stitching Fizeau interferometer-based surface metrology is used to mitigate the problem. But still, the retrace and aberration errors, as well as the limited spatial resolution, described with the instrument transfer function (ITF), can be transferred into the optical surface topography of X-ray mirrors obtained in stitching metrology. For ITF calibration, we have developed an original technique, based on test standards structured as two-dimensional (2D) highly-randomized (HR) binary pseudo-random arrays (BPRAs). The technique employs the unique properties of the HR BPRA patterns in the spatial frequency domain., i.e. the inherent 2D power spectral density of the HR BPRA pattern has a deterministic white-noise-like character that allows direct determination of the ITF with uniform sensitivity over the entire spatial frequency range and field-of-view of an instrument. Here, we explore technological, metrological, and analytical aspects essential for calibration of the retrace and aberration errors of Fizeau interferometers using different types of tilted test samples, including a super-polished reference mirror for the re-trace calibration and the uniformly redundant array (URA) BPRA standards for the geometrical distortion (aberration) calibration. While the first method was previously demonstrated by researchers at DIAMOND Light Source, a method based on the URA BPRA is described and demonstrated here for the first time. We outline the design and fabrication process used in fabrication of URA BPRA test standards, and present the results of application of the URA BPRA standards demonstrating the high efficacy of our approach to geometrical distortion calibration of Fizeau interferometers. We also discuss the possible sources of unexpected peculiarities of the systematic errors, including an astigmatic character of the retrace error, observed with Fizeau interferometers at the Advanced Light Source X-Ray Optics Laboratory.

Munechika, Keiko↗
DOE OSTI2024

An acoustic investigation of the near-surface turbulence on Mars

The Perseverance rover is carrying out an original acoustic experiment on Mars: the SuperCam microphone records the spherical acoustic waves generated by laser sparks at distances from 2 m to more than 8 m. These N-shaped acoustic waves scatter from the multiple local heterogeneities of the turbulent atmosphere. Therefore, large and random fluctuations of sound travel time and intensity develop as the waves cross the medium. The variances of the travel times and the scintillation index (normalized variance of the sound intensity) are studied within the mathematical formalism of the propagation of spherical acoustic waves through thermal turbulence to infer statistical properties of the Mars atmospheric temperature fluctuation field. The comparison with the theory is made by simplifying assumptions that do not include wind fluctuations and diffraction effects. Two Earth years (about one Martian year) of observations acquired during the maximum convective period (10:00–14:00 Mars local time) show a good agreement between the dataset and the formalism: the travel time variance diverges from the linear Chernov solution exactly where the density of occurrence of the first caustic reaches its maximum. Moreover, on average, waves travel faster than the mean speed of sound due to a fast path effect, which is also observed on Earth. To account for the distribution of turbulent eddies, several power spectra are tested and the best match to observation is obtained with a generalized von Karman spectrum with a shallower slope than the Kolmogorov cascade, φ(k)∝(1 + k 2 L 2 ) -4/3 . It is associated with an outer scale of turbulence, L, of 11 cm at 2 m above the surface and a standard deviation of 6 K over 9 s for the temperature. These near-surface atmospheric properties are consistent with a weak to moderate wave scattering regime around noon with little saturation. Overall, this study presents an innovative and promising methodology to probe the near-surface atmospheric turbulence on Mars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing Classifiers for Radionuclide Identification

Identifying threat nuclear materials is a critical for the prevention of acts of nuclear terrorism on the homeland. For this purpose, many radionuclide identification devices are deployed in the field. However, these will not necessarily be in the hands of non-experts, therefore these devices need to provide ready-made answers for the personnel in the field. This is where advanced algorithms are employed to both interpret the data and provide the identification of the nuclear material being interrogated. We took a machine learning approach to identification, by using training and validation data sets to create and optimize classifiers which determine which radionuclide is consistent with the data. The classifiers investigated were the Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and XG Boost and their performance was judged using the F1 Score for both hyperparameter tuning and comparison. In the end, we found out that the Random Forest Classifier worked the best based off the F1 Score they got which was 0.98.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plasmons in Z 2 topological insulators

Here, we study plasmonic excitations in the Kane-Mele model, a two-dimensional Z 2 topological insulator on the honeycomb lattice, using the random phase approximation (RPA). In the topologically nontrivial phase, the model has conducting edge states that traverse the bulk energy gap and display spin-momentum locking. Such a state of matter is called the quantum spin hall (QSH) phase, which is robust against time-reversal (TR) invariant perturbations. We find that in the QSH phase, gapless spin-polarized plasmons can be excited on the edges of the system. The propagation of these plasmons is chiral for each individual spin component and shows spin-momentum locking for both spin components on the same edge. Moreover, we study the effect of external magnetic fields on the gapless edge plasmons. Specifically, out-of-plane magnetic fields delocalize edge plasmons propagating in one direction without affecting the other one, while an in-plane magnetic field can be applied to selectively excite a specific spin-plasmon branch with proper doping or gating to the system. Our findings may have potential applications in novel plasmonic and spintronic devices. We also investigate plasmons in the Kane-Mele model on a finite-sized diamond-shaped nanoflake and observe low-energy plasmons circulating the boundary of the material.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimates of Lake Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Chlorophyll‐ a Concentrations to Characterize Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Across the United States

Abstract Excess nutrient pollution contributes to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that compromise fisheries and recreation and that can directly endanger human and animal health via cyanotoxins. Efforts to quantify the occurrence, drivers, and severity of HABs across large areas is difficult due to the resource intensive nature of field monitoring of lake nutrient and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations. To better characterize how nutrients interact with other environmental factors to produce algal blooms in freshwater systems, we used spatially explicit and temporally matched climate, landscape, in‐lake characteristic, and nutrient inventory data sets to predict nutrients and chlorophyll‐aacross the conterminous US (CONUS). Using a nested modeling approach, three random forest (RF) models were trained to explain the spatiotemporal variation in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations across US EPA's National Lakes Assessment (n = 2,062). Concentrations of TN and TP were the most important predictors and, with other variables, the RF model accounted for 68% of variation in chlorophyll‐a. We then used these RF models to extrapolate lake TN and TP predictions to lakes without nutrient observations and predict chlorophyll‐afor ∼112,000 lakes across the CONUS. Risk for high chlorophyll‐aconcentrations is highest in the agriculturally dominated Midwest, but other areas of risk emerge in nutrient pollution hot spots across the country. These catchment and lake‐specific results can help managers identify potential nutrient pollution and chlorophyll‐ahot spots that may fuel blooms, prioritize at‐risk lakes for additional monitoring, and optimize management to protect human health and other environmental end goals.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems

The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.

joint modeling↗