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At least 541 records · Page 30

DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology

Abstract. Vegetation phenology plays a key role in controlling the seasonality of ecosystem processes that modulate carbon, water and energy fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate modelling of vegetation phenology in the interplay of Earth's surface and the atmosphere is thus crucial to understand how the coupled system will respond to and shape climatic changes. Phenology is controlled by meteorological conditions at different timescales: on the one hand, changes in key meteorological variables (temperature, water, radiation) can have immediate effects on the vegetation development; on the other hand, phenological changes can be driven by past environmental conditions, known as memory effects. However, the processes governing meteorological memory effects on phenology are not completely understood, resulting in their limited performance of vegetation phenology represented in land surface models. A deep learning model, specifically a long short-term memory network (LSTM), has the potential to capture and model the meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology. Here, we apply the LSTM to model the vegetation phenology using meteorological drivers and high-temporal-resolution canopy greenness observations through digital repeat photography by the PhenoCam network. We compare a multiple linear regression model, a no-memory-effect LSTM model and a full-memory-effect LSTM model to predict the whole seasonal greenness trajectory and the corresponding phenological transition dates across 50 sites and 317 site years during 2009–2018, covering deciduous broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands. Results show that the deep learning model outperforms the multiple linear regression model, and the full-memory-effect LSTM model performs better than the no-memory-effect model for all three plant function types (median R2 of 0.878, 0.957 and 0.955 for broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands). We also find that the full-memory-effect LSTM model is capable of predicting the seasonal dynamic variations of canopy greenness and reproducing trends in shifting phenological transition dates. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the full-memory-effect LSTM model to assess its plausibility, revealing its coherence with established knowledge of vegetation phenology sensitivity to meteorological conditions, particularly changes in temperature. Our study highlights that (1) multi-variate meteorological memory effects play a crucial role in vegetation phenology, and (2) deep learning opens up new avenues for improving the representation of vegetation phenological processes in land surface models via a hybrid modelling approach.

Geology↗

Failure investigation of nuclear grade POCO graphite target in high energy neutrino physics through numerical simulation

In many high energy physics neutrino beamlines, targets are made up of isotropic POCO graphite grade for production of neutrinos for high energy particle physics research and are bombarded with highly energetic pulsed proton beam. The pulsed proton beam with a small beam size creates thermal stress waves as well as radiation damage such as displacement damage, void formation, swelling, and gas formation amongst others. As a result, after a few years of operation one of the longest operated targets appears to have undergone bulk swelling and fractured along the beam centerline. A complex interaction of dynamic loading due to beam, material degradation due to irradiation are thought to have caused such a failure. Here, we present a numerical simulation to capture the combined effects of swelling and the dynamic effect of thermal stress waves due to beam heating, to explain the failure of target. An empirical formula has been developed to take into account swelling as a function of temperature and proton fluence and has been implemented in a commercial finite element code. Extensive X-ray diffraction (XRD) were performed on graphite samples from the failed target to understand the lattice parameter changes due to irradiation and build a valid empirical model. Simulation results show that swelling plays a major role in elevating the stress state in the material exceeding the failure strength while the pulsed beam heating also introduces fatigue loading that would explain brittle fracture emanating from inside of the material and propagating outward. Such empirical formulations will help in identifying the threshold values of critical parameters to extend the service life of future multi-megawatt neutrino targets and targets in other accelerator environments.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Global organic and inorganic aerosol hygroscopicity and its effect on radiative forcing

The climate effects of atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) depend on chemical composition and hygroscopicity, which are highly variable on spatial and temporal scales. Here we present global CCN measurements, covering diverse environments from pristine to highly polluted conditions. We show that the effective aerosol hygroscopicity, κ, can be derived accurately from the fine aerosol mass fractions of organic particulate matter (ϵ org ) and inorganic ions (ϵ inorg ) through a linear combination, κ = ϵ org · κ org + ϵ inorg · κ inorg . In spite of the chemical complexity of organic matter, its hygroscopicity is well captured and represented by a global average value of κ org = 0.12 ± 0.02 with κinorg = 0.63 ± 0.01 as the corresponding value for inorganic ions. By showing that the sensitivity of global climate forcing to changes in κ org and κ inorg is small, we constrain a critically important aspect of global climate modelling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Clustering and α-capture reaction rate from ab initio 20 Ne

We introduce a new framework for studying clustering and for calculating α partial widths using ab initio wave functions. We demonstrate the formalism for 20 Ne, by calculating the overlap between the 16 O + α cluster configuration and states in 20 Ne computed in the ab initio symmetry-adapted no-core shell model. We present spectroscopic amplitudes and spectroscopic factors, and compare those to no-core symplectic shell-model results in larger model spaces, to gain insight into the underlying physics that drives α clustering. Specifically, we report on the α partial width of the lowest 1 – resonance in 20 Ne, which is found to be in good agreement with experiment.We also present first no-core shell-model estimates for asymptotic normalization coefficients for the ground state, as well as for the first excited 4 + state in 20 Ne that lies in a close proximity to the α + 16 O threshold. This outcome highlights the importance of correlations for developing cluster structures and for describing α widths. The widths can then be used to calculate α-capture reaction rates for narrow resonances of interest to astrophysics. Finally, we explore the reaction rate for the α-capture reaction 16 O(α, γ ) 20 Ne at astrophysically relevant temperatures and determine its impact on simulated x-ray burst abundances.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Modeling the Simultaneous Dropout of Energetic Electrons and Protons by Magnetopause Shadowing

Abstract Magnetopause shadowing (MPS) effect could drive a concurrent dropout of radiation belt electrons and ring current protons. However, its relative role in the dropout of both plasma populations has not been well quantified. In this work, we study the simultaneous dropout of MeV electrons and 100s keV protons during an intense geomagnetic storm in May 2017. A radial diffusion model with an event‐specific last closed drift shell is used to simulate the MPS loss of both populations. The model well captures the fast shadowing loss of both populations at L * > 4.6, while the loss at L * < 4.6, possibly due to the electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave scattering, is not captured. The observed butterfly pitch angle distributions of electron fluxes in the initial loss phase are well reproduced by the model. The initial proton losses at low pitch angles are underestimated, potentially also contributed by other mechanisms such as field line curvature scattering.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Synchrotron X-ray based particle image velocimetry to measure multiphase streamflow and densitometry

Synchrotron-based radiation techniques are increasingly used in the field of flow condition measurements. As a complicated multiphase flow, cavitation has been investigated in a wide variety of industrial fields, to prevent damages on spillways at large dams or intensify the bacteria eradication rate during water treatments. To control the detrimental effects of cavitating flows, the dynamics of and mechanisms affecting cavitation development shall be visualized and identified in real-time. Due to the large reflection and scattering effects of multiphase flow, standard visible-light imaging technologies cannot penetrate vapor bubbles and provide extremely limited information. In this study, the synchrotron source emitted high-flux X-ray pulses are used to capture flow motion and visualize internal structures with sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolutions. The image processing procedures on raw x-ray images are developed using 2D Fourier transform (FT) and wavelet transform (WT) to implement the contrast enhancement and de-noising. Through the edge detection algorithm, tracking either seeded particles or phase interfaces inside the opaque multiphase flow can be achieved to perform the particle image velocimetry. Further, with decomposing particle-only and particle-eliminated subplots from the X-ray phase-contrast image, the time-resolved velocity and void fraction fields are obtained simultaneously, paving a way for further flow condition analysis such as densitometry.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Boson Fermion Nuclei And Structures Throughout The Periodic Table Of Elements: Monograph #8

A homologous structural pattern among nuclei that corresponds to the periodicity of the periodic table of elements has been identified. Schematic diagrams of boson fermion nuclei (BFN) are shown for nuclei throughout the periodic table of elements. Transition elements in the fourth, fifth, and sixth periods display bridges between the legs of the tetrahedral nuclear structure, occurring where the nuclear structure is sufficiently massive to create potential wells able to hold the nucleons in a fermion-pocket quantum system bridging the legs. These nuclei are not formed by buildup, as in stepwise nuclear fusion or nucleon capture, but by a process in which the nucleus has “fallen down” in mass during stellar nucleosynthesis from a higher A and Z, shedding nucleons and decaying radioactively to arrive at a lowest-energy-system, stable-boson-fermion nuclear structure.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Implications of Microstructure in Helium-Implanted Nanocrystalline Metals

Helium bubbles are known to form in nuclear reactor structural components when displacement damage occurs in conjunction with helium exposure and/or transmutation. If left unchecked, bubble production can cause swelling, blistering, and embrittlement, all of which substantially degrade materials and—moreover—diminish mechanical properties. On the mission to produce more robust materials, nanocrystalline (NC) metals show great potential and are postulated to exhibit superior radiation resistance due to their high defect and particle sink densities; however, much is still unknown about the mechanisms of defect evolution in these systems under extreme conditions. Here, the performances of NC nickel (Ni) and iron (Fe) are investigated under helium bombardment via transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Bubble density statistics are measured as a function of grain size in specimens implanted under similar conditions. While the overall trends revealed an increase in bubble density up to saturation in both samples, bubble density in Fe was over 300% greater than in Ni. To interrogate the kinetics of helium diffusion and trapping, a rate theory model is developed that substantiates that helium is more readily captured within grains in helium-vacancy complexes in NC Fe, whereas helium is more prone to traversing the grain matrices and migrating to GBs in NC Ni. Our results suggest that (1) grain boundaries can affect bubble swelling in grain matrices significantly and can have a dominant effect over crystal structure, and (2) an NC-Ni-based material can yield superior resistance to irradiation-induced bubble growth compared to an NC-Fe-based material and exhibits high potential for use in extreme environments where swelling due to He bubble formation is of significant concern.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Systematic quark/gluon identification with ratios of likelihoods

Discriminating between quark- and gluon-initiated jets has long been a central focus of jet substructure, leading to the introduction of numerous observables and calculations to high perturbative accuracy. At the same time, there have been many attempts to fully exploit the jet radiation pattern using tools from statistics and machine learning. We propose a new approach that combines a deep analytic understanding of jet substructure with the optimality promised by machine learning and statistics. After specifying an approximation to the full emission phase space, we show how to construct the optimal observable for a given classification task. This procedure is demonstrated for the case of quark and gluons jets, where we show how to systematically capture sub-eikonal corrections in the splitting functions, and prove that linear combinations of weighted multiplicity is the optimal observable. In addition to providing a new and powerful framework for systematically improving jet substructure observables, we demonstrate the performance of several quark versus gluon jet tagging observables in parton-level Monte Carlo simulations, and find that they perform at or near the level of a deep neural network classifier. Combined with the rapid recent progress in the development of higher order parton showers, we believe that our approach provides a basis for systematically exploiting subleading effects in jet substructure analyses at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and beyond.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming

Abstract Climate modes play an important role in weather and climate variability over multiple spatial and temporal scales. This research assesses Earth system model (ESM) projections of the spatiotemporal characteristics of key internal climate modes (NAM, SAM, PNA, ENSO, PDO, and AMO) under high (SSP585) and low (SSP126) radiative forcing scenarios and contextualizes those projections using historical fidelity. Time series analyses are used to assess trends and mode phase characteristics are summarized for the historical period and for the end of the twenty-first century. Spatial patterns are compared to infer morphological changes. Shifts in the power spectra are used to examine changes in variability at subannual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Changes in time-lagged correlations are used to capture the evolution of first-order interactions. While differences in historical skill are predominantly ESM dependent, changing mode characteristics in a warmer climate also exhibit variability between individual ensemble realizations. NAM, SAM, and ENSO tend to evolve toward increased prevalence of the positive phase up to 2100 across the multimodel ensemble while the PNA and PDO exhibit little trend but increasing phase intensity. AMO characteristics are shown to depend on the method used to remove the external signal. ESMs that show higher historical fidelity tend to show more modest changes in those modes under global nonstationarity. Changes in mode interactions are found to be highly ESM dependent but exhibit broadly similar behavior to historical relationships. These findings have implications for our understanding of internal variability and make clear that the choice of ESM, and even the ESM realization, matters for applications of climate projections. Significance Statement Internal modes of variability are important to understand due to their impact on local, regional, and global weather and climate patterns. Future climate changes will not only be affected by the variability arising from these modes, but the modes will themselves change in response to the changing climate. Spatial and temporal aspects of the modes are assessed from projections of future climate and related to how well they are captured in the historical climate. This yields some measure of confidence in the changes exhibited by the models. In most cases, when historically skillful models exhibit changes that are different from those produced by less skillful models, they tend to produce more modest changes. These results, as well as the variability between model outcomes, mean decisions on which ESM to use for projections of the future climate matter significantly.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Direct Measurements with Neutron Sources [Slides]

The majority of heavy elements are produced through neutron capture. This presentation discusses progress in measurements for the Weak s-Process, how measurements are done, and future capabilities for direct measurement at LANSCE. Conclusion: Major advances have been made in improving neutron capture rates for the weak s process in the last 15 years. Coupling these measurements to stellar simulations is key to understanding where the next opportunities lie. New capabilities for performing measurements, particularly on unstable isotopes are being developed around the world

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Advances in Nuclear Data Evaluation Theory for NCSP [Slides]

The generalized form of the Bayes’ Theorem improves UQ for NCSP of differential and/or integral data evaluations and of applications. It is being implemented in an API for use by SCALE, SAMMY, etc. Extended R-matrix formalism improves evaluations of RRR including direct reactions, direct capture, and the Reich-Moore approx., doorway state reactions with applications to RPI data on lead isotopes. Extended R-Matrix formalism will be implemented into SAMMY post modernization.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

On the Uranium and Plutonium Nuclear Data Evaluations [Slides]

This presentation provides overviews of uraniums, 233 U and 235 U, plutonium research including motivations, current status in ENDF/B-VIII.0, the inclusion of sub-thermal data, and the inclusion of LANL ratio capture-to-fission data. Additionally, the preliminary fit of Mosby’s data as reported, fluctuating neutron multiplicities, uncertainty in evaluated libraries, and experimental effects are also presented. The presentation concludes by providing a summary of plans for the U and Pu evaluation work.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Deciphering Fingerprints of Stellar Nucleosynthesis Through Nuclear Reaction Rate Measurements and Isotopic Analyses of Stardust

Microscopic stardust grains, found in trace amounts in primitive meteorites, afford a unique opportunity to study stellar nucleosynthesis in the laboratory by measuring their heavy element isotopic compositions. Applying LLNL’s state-of-the art material characterization capabilities to these micrometer-sized grains yields large new datasets with unprecedented precision. However, the astrophysical models necessary to interpret the isotopic record require improved nuclear physics data to constrain stellar nucleosynthesis conditions. For example, the branch point in the s-process path at 95 Zr controls the relative amounts of heavier nuclides but is poorly understood. We conducted a coordinated effort across disciplines to combine a new determination of the neutron capture cross section of 95 Zr with the laboratory analysis of hundreds of stardust grains to yield a view into stellar interiors. We developed new methods to quantify multiple isotopic systems simultaneously (e.g., Zr, Ba, and W) in stardust grains and improved the determination of the neutron capture cross section of unstable 95 Zr via the surrogate reaction method. This interdisciplinary approach is allowing us to fill gaps in our understanding of the environments in which elements are produced while enhancing LLNL’s experimental and theoretical capabilities relevant to nuclear threat reduction missions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Deciphering Fingerprints of Stellar Nucleosynthesis Through Nuclear Reaction Rate Measurements and Isotopic Analyses of Stardust

Microscopic stardust grains, found in trace amounts in primitive meteorites, afford a unique opportunity to study stellar nucleosynthesis in the laboratory by measuring their heavy element isotopic compositions. Applying LLNL’s state-of-the art material characterization capabilities to these micrometer-sized grains yields large new datasets with unprecedented precision. However, the astrophysical models necessary to interpret the isotopic record require improved nuclear physics data to constrain stellar nucleosynthesis conditions. For example, the branch point in the s-process path at 95 Zr controls the relative amounts of heavier nuclides but is poorly understood. We conducted a coordinated effort across disciplines to combine a new determination of the neutron capture cross section of 95 Zr with the laboratory analysis of hundreds of stardust grains to yield a view into stellar interiors. We developed new methods to quantify multiple isotopic systems simultaneously (e.g., Zr, Ba, and W) in stardust grains and improved the determination of the neutron capture cross section of unstable 95 Zr via the surrogate reaction method. This interdisciplinary approach is allowing us to fill gaps in our understanding of the environments in which elements are produced while enhancing LLNL’s experimental and theoretical capabilities relevant to nuclear threat reduction missions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Analytic Sensitivity Coefficients for General Multigroup Infinite Medium k-Eigenvalue Problems

The general multigroup infinite medium k-eigenvalue neutron transport equation is used to derive analytic expressions for the infinite medium k-eigenvalue, the scalar neutron flux and adjoint, and the sensitivity of $k$ ∞ to perturbations in the multigroup nuclear data of a single species isotropic elastic scattering material. In the appendix, we present the multigroup nuclear data for U-235 and U-238 along with the corresponding k-eigenvalue, flux, adjoint, and sensitivity profiles, which include the sensitivity of $k$ ∞ to the total, fission, capture, and scattering macroscopic cross sections as well as to the group-to-group scattering cross section matrix, group neutron production, and the unconstrained and constrained fission neutron energy distribution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Recognizing Unrecognized Sources of Uncertainty (USU) in Nuclear Data

Historically, time-of-flight (TOF) nuclear cross section measurements on different nuclides are assumed to be uncorrelated if they were recorded in different facilities with identical methods, identical facilities with different methods, and even identical facilities with identical methods. Ideally, measurements of different nuclides would truly be uncorrelated thus providing independent assessments of some cross section. In reality, correlations exist between measurements but are simply assumed to be unimportant. To eliminate these qualitative assumptions, in this paper we make a counter-intuitive suggestion to perform an intentionally correlated measurement of energy-differential fission and capture reactions for nuclides in a single criticality safety benchmark during a single experimental campaign. While this would introduce undesirable correlations, it would fully quantify correlations between datasets, rather than assume that the correlations do not exist.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Mesoscale Cellular Convection Detection and Classification Using Convolutional Neural Networks: Insights From Long-Term Observations at ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

Marine boundary layer clouds are crucial in Earth's climate system. They frequently manifest as closed or open cell mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). MCC clouds are challenging to represent accurately in current climate models, highlighting the need for detailed observational data sets and in-depth analyses. This study utilizes over 8 years of observations from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site at Graciosa Island, Azores, to investigate these clouds. We first apply a convolutional neural network with a U-Net architecture to classify open and closed cells, marking the first application of such an approach for automatically detecting MCC patterns from ground-based radar measurements. This method addresses some observational gaps in satellite data related to low temporal resolution, nighttime challenges, and limited vertical structure capture. The analysis of the MCC cases shows clear differences between closed and open MCCs: Closed MCC clouds are characterized by lower cloud tops and bases, shallower cloud geometrical depth, weaker horizontal wind speeds, stronger atmospheric stability, and a more homogeneous liquid water path than open MCCs. Finally, we demonstrate two potential applications of our radar-based MCC classifications: (a) facilitating the investigation of aerosol-cloud interactions and (b) exploring meteorological factors along with MCC's evolution by integrating satellite imagery and back-trajectory analysis. The identified MCC cases offer a valuable resource for the scientific community to study MCC processes further and improve climate model accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗