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NASA NTRS2020

Architecture and Information Requirements to Assess and Predict Flight Safety Risks During Highly Autonomous Urban Flight Operations

As aviation adopts new and increasingly complex operational paradigms, vehicle types, and technologies to broaden airspace capability and efficiency, maintaining a safe system will require recognition and timely mitigation of new safety issues as they emerge and before significant consequences occur. A shift toward a more predictive risk mitigation capability becomes critical to meet this challenge. In-time safety assurance comprises monitoring, assessment, and mitigation functions that proactively reduce risk in complex operational environments where the interplay of hazards may not be known (and therefore not accounted for) during design. These functions can also help to understand and predict emergent effects caused by the increased use of automation or autonomous functions that may exhibit unexpected non-deterministic behaviors. The envisioned monitoring and assessment functions can look for precursors, anomalies, and trends (PATs) by applying model-based and data-driven methods. Outputs would then drive downstream mitigation(s) if needed to reduce risk. These mitigations may be accomplished using traditional design revision processes or via operational (and sometimes automated) mechanisms. The latter refers to the ‘in-time’ aspect of the system concept. This report comprises architecture and information requirements and considerations toward enabling such a capability within the domain of low altitude highly autonomous urban flight operations. This domain may span, for example, public-use surveillance missions flown by small unmanned aircraft (e.g., infrastructure inspection, facility management, emergency response, law enforcement, and/or security) to transportation missions flown by larger aircraft that may carry passengers or deliver products. Caveat: Any stated requirements in this report should be considered initial requirements that are intended to drive research and development (R&D). These initial requirements are likely to evolve based on R&D findings, refinement of operational concepts, industry advances, and new industry or regulatory policies or standards related to safety assurance.

Young, Steven↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Full Lunar Surface Visualization and Simulation Platform

This paper reports the results of the innovative work completed to facilitate the creation of a lunar surface visualization and simulation platform for the entire surface of the moon as a design, test, training, verification, and mission support environment. The mathematical approach to the visualization of the data sets utilizes fractal mathematics to generate not only the highest possible detail that the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) data can provide, but it also additionally supplies an estimation of surface reflectivity and lighting based upon location on the lunar surface. This level of detail and accuracy is required to conduct accurate integrated crew / vehicle risk assessment throughout the design-to-disposal life cycle of vehicles and their supporting procedures and mission priorities. This process starts with safety assessments of integrated hardware / software / crew/ and support environments. Unlike the Apollo Program, the Artemis Program is not risk tolerant.

Simulation↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evolution of International Space Station Program Safety Review Processes and Tools

The International Space Station Program at NASA is constantly seeking to improve the processes and systems that support safe space operations. To that end, the ISS Program decided to upgrade their Safety and Hazard data systems with 3 goals: make safety and hazard data more accessible; better support the interconnection of different types of safety data; and increase the efficiency (and compliance) of safety-related processes. These goals are accomplished by moving data into a web-based structured data system that includes strong process support and supports integration with other information systems. Along with the data systems, ISS is evolving its submission requirements and safety process requirements to support the improved model. In contrast to existing operations (where paper processes and electronic file repositories are used for safety data management) the web-based solution provides the program with dramatically faster access to records, the ability to search for and reference specific data within records, reduced workload for hazard updates and approval, and process support including digital signatures and controlled record workflow. In addition, integration with other key data systems provides assistance with assessments of flight readiness, more efficient review and approval of operational controls and better tracking of international safety certifications. This approach will also provide new opportunities to streamline the sharing of data with ISS international partners while maintaining compliance with applicable laws and respecting restrictions on proprietary data. One goal of this paper is to outline the approach taken by the ISS Progrm to determine requirements for the new system and to devise a practical and efficient implementation strategy. From conception through implementation, ISS and NASA partners utilized a user-centered software development approach focused on user research and iterative design methods. The user-centered approach used on the new ISS hazard system utilized focused user research and iterative design methods employed by the Human Computer Interaction Group at NASA Ames Research Center. Particularly, the approach emphasized the reduction of workload associated with document and data management activities so more resources can be allocated to the operational use of data in problem solving, safety analysis, and recurrence control. The methods and techniques used to understand existing processes and systems, to recognize opportunities for improvement, and to design and review improvements are described with the intent that similar techniques can be employed elsewhere in safety operations. A second goal of this paper is to provide and overview of the web-based data system implemented by ISS. The software selected for the ISS hazard systemMission Assurance System (MAS)is a NASA-customized vairant of the open source software project Bugzilla. The origin and history of MAS as a NASA software project and the rationale for (and advantages of) using open-source software are documented elsewhere (Green, et al., 2009).

Ratterman, Christian D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Time Safety Assessment & Risk Prediction for Unmanned Aerial Systems

One of the critical challenges in emerging autonomous systems is timely mitigation of hazards encountered during operation which may not be known or accounted for at the time of design. Efficient execution of unmanned systems therefore demands a paradigm shift from scheduled periodic maintenance to predictive risk analysis that includes condition-based-monitoring, real-time reliability assessment and hazard mitigation. Particularly, the state-of-health parameters needs to be computed at the component level, unit level as well as the integrated system level. While in the former two levels, the physics of health propagation may be based on underlying electro-mechanical properties, system level prognostics often relies on data-driven models. Further, uncertainty from model, measurements and input sources should be accurately quantified to generate meaningful prediction results that can be fed into reliable decision making processes. Finally, the expected risk and time to failure has to be computed based on the current state-of-health of the overall system. This talk presents a conceptual design of such an in-time safety assurance approach for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) operating at low altitudes near and over populated areas. Typical in-flight hazard incidents include unplanned detour, proximity to obstacles, mid-flight component faults, limited battery life and poor quality of GPS measurements. Safety assessment therefore comprises trajectory generation and re-plan, battery RUL computation, distributed fault diagnostics and uncertainty management of predicted trajectory based on GPS measurement noise. The entire monitoring framework will be demonstrated on simulated as well as real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center. This tutorial will therefore guide the audience through a step-by-step tracking of an autonomous system with focus on in-time risk prediction in the presence of unforeseen hazards and uncertain environment.

diagnostics↗

NASA NTRS2012

Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

Aguilar, Robert B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Framework for National Airspace System (NAS) Level Sustainability Assessment of New Aircraft

This paper introduces a framework for investigating the future sustainability benefits of conceptual vehicles. The framework considers the complex interactions between such vehicles and how it can be flown in the National Airspace System. Aggregate benefits for reduction in fuel use and emissions need to consider fleet wide operations, demand distributions, NAS Infrastructure, and differing business models. To extract true system level benefits multi-objective function optimization for operational energy use, acoustics, emissions and NAS Wide efficiency and interoperability incorporating physic-based system-wide flight simulations in the National Airspace system is required. The framework marries traditional vehicle synthesis processes with a NAS Simulation environment to simulate how a new synthesized vehicle will behave in the NAS.

Sustainability↗

NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on the Stability of Small Tidal Inlets: Part 2- Data Rich Environments

Climate change (CC) is likely to affect the thousands of bar-built or barrier estuaries (here referred to as Small tidal inlets - STIs) around the world. Any such CC impacts on the stability of STIs, which governs the dynamics of STIs as well as that of the inlet-adjacent coastline, can result in significant socio-economic consequences due to the heavy human utilisation of these systems and their surrounds. This article demonstrates the application of a process based snap-shot modelling approach, using the coastal morphodynamic model Delft3D, to 3 case study sites representing the 3 main STI types; Permanently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 1), Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlets (Type 2) and Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 3). The 3 case study sites (Negombo lagoon - Type 1, Kalutara lagoon - Type 2, and Maha Oya river - Type 3) are all located along the southwest coast of Sri Lanka. After successful hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model validation at the 3 case study sites, CC impact assessment are undertaken for a high end greenhouse gas emission scenario. Future CC modified wave and riverflow conditions are derived from a regional scale application of spectral wave models (WaveWatch III and SWAN) and catchment scale applications of a hydrologic model (CLSM) respectively, both of which are forced with IPCC Global Climate Model output dynamically downscaled to approximately 50 km resolution over the study area with the stretched grid Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model CCAM. Results show that while all 3 case study STIs will experience significant CC driven variations in their level of stability, none of them will change Type by the year 2100. Specifically, the level of stability of the Type 1 inlet will decrease from 'Good' to 'Fair to poor' by 2100, while the level of (locational) stability of the Type 2 inlet will also decrease with a doubling of the annual migration distance. Conversely, the stability of the Type 3 inlet will increase, with the time till inlet closure increasing by approximately 75%. The main contributor to the overall CC effect on the stability of all 3 STIs is CC driven variations in wave conditions and resulting changes in longshore sediment transport, not Sea level rise as commonly believed.

IPC↗

NASA NTRS2014

Conceptual Launch Vehicle and Spacecraft Design for Risk Assessment

One of the most challenging aspects of developing human space launch and exploration systems is minimizing and mitigating the many potential risk factors to ensure the safest possible design while also meeting the required cost, weight, and performance criteria. In order to accomplish this, effective risk analyses and trade studies are needed to identify key risk drivers, dependencies, and sensitivities as the design evolves. The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) develops advanced risk analysis approaches, models, and tools to provide such meaningful risk and reliability data throughout vehicle development. The goal of the project presented in this memorandum is to design a generic launch 7 vehicle and spacecraft architecture that can be used to develop and demonstrate these new risk analysis techniques without relying on other proprietary or sensitive vehicle designs. To accomplish this, initial spacecraft and launch vehicle (LV) designs were established using historical sizing relationships for a mission delivering four crewmembers and equipment to the International Space Station (ISS). Mass-estimating relationships (MERs) were used to size the crew capsule and launch vehicle, and a combination of optimization techniques and iterative design processes were employed to determine a possible two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) launch trajectory into a 350-kilometer orbit. Primary subsystems were also designed for the crewed capsule architecture, based on a 24-hour on-orbit mission with a 7-day contingency. Safety analysis was also performed to identify major risks to crew survivability and assess the system's overall reliability. These procedures and analyses validate that the architecture's basic design and performance are reasonable to be used for risk trade studies. While the vehicle designs presented are not intended to represent a viable architecture, they will provide a valuable initial platform for developing and demonstrating innovative risk assessment capabilities.

Launch Vehicle↗

NASA NTRS1979

Effects of Impurities and Processing on Silicon Solar Cells, Phase 3

Results of the 14th quarterly report are presented for a program designed to assess the effects of impurities, thermochemical processes and any impurity process interactions on the performance of terrestrial silicon solar cells. The Phase 3 effort encompasses: (1) potential interactions between impurities and thermochemical processing of silicon; (2) impurity-cell performance relationships in n-base silicon; (3) effect of contaminants introduced during silicon production, refining or crystal growth on cell performance; (4) effects of nonuniform impurity distributions in large area silicon wafers; and (5) a preliminary study of the permanence of impurity effects in silicon solar cells.

Hopkins, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Environmental monitoring and research at the John F. Kennedy Space Center

The Biomedical Operations and Research Office at the NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center has been supporting environmental monitoring and research since the mid-1970s. Program elements include monitoring of baseline conditions to document natural variability in the ecosystem, assessments of operations and construction of new facilities, and ecological research focusing on wildlife habitat associations. Information management is centered around development of a computerized geographic information system that incorporates remote sensing and digital image processing technologies along with traditional relational data base management capabilities. The proactive program is one in which the initiative is to anticipate potential environmental concerns before they occur and, by utilizing in-house expertise, develop impact minimization or mitigation strategies to reduce environmental risk.

Hall, C. R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Research on Intelligent Synthesis Environment

The ultimate goal of this research project is to develop a methodology for the assessment and continuous improvement of engineering team effectiveness in distributed collaborative environments. This review provides the theoretical foundation upon which subsequent empirical work will be based. Our review of the team performance literature has identified the following 12 conceptually distinct team interaction processes as characteristic of effective teams. 1) Mission Analysis; 2) Resource Distribution; 3) Leadership; 4) Timing; 5) Intra-team Feedback; 6) Motivational Functions; 7) Team Orientation; 8) Communication; 9) Coordination; 10) Mutual Performance Monitoring; 11) Back-up Behaviors; and 12) Cooperation. In addition, this review summarizes how team task characteristics (i.e., task type, task complexity, motivation, and temporal changes), team characteristics (i.e., team structure and team knowledge), and individual team member characteristics (i.e., dispositions and teamwork knowledge, skills, and abilities) affect team interaction processes, determine the relevance of these processes, and influence team performance. The costs and benefits of distributed team collaboration are also considered. The review concludes with a brief discussion of the nature of collaborative team engineering tasks.

Loftin, R. Bowen↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Space Systems Environmental Test Facility Database (SSETFD), Website Development Status

The Aerospace Corporation has been developing a database of U.S. environmental test laboratory capabilities utilized by the space systems hardware development community. To date, 19 sites have been visited by The Aerospace Corporation and verbal agreements reached to include their capability descriptions in the database. A website is being developed to make this database accessible by all interested government, civil, university and industry personnel. The website will be accessible by all interested in learning more about the extensive collective capability that the US based space industry has to offer. The Environments, Test & Assessment Department within The Aerospace Corporation will be responsible for overall coordination and maintenance of the database. Several US government agencies are interested in utilizing this database to assist in the source selection process for future spacecraft programs. This paper introduces the website by providing an overview of its development, location and search capabilities. It will show how the aerospace community can apply this new tool as a way to increase the utilization of existing lab facilities, and as a starting point for capital expenditure/upgrade trade studies. The long term result is expected to be increased utilization of existing laboratory capability and reduced overall development cost of space systems hardware. Finally, the paper will present the process for adding new participants, and how the database will be maintained.

Snyder, James M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of a Probabilistic Continuity Assessment Method for Earth Observation Portfolios

With the increased reliance on spaceborne Earth observation data among the Earth science community and other end users, it is important that efforts are made to promote data continuity for a range of parameters of interest. Continuity gaps may occur between missions measuring like parameters due to mission development delays or early termination and introduce the potential of increased uncertainty for retrieved parameters. To inform portfolio-level decisions for Earth observing missions, Ivanco et al. developed a method that enables the assessment of the probability of continuity gaps for multi-mission architectures and provides a framework to assess this probability in the context of multiple scenarios that represent possible future states of the architecture [Ivanco et al., “A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations,” IEEE Aerospace Conf., 2024]. While this method was previously applied to assess continuity gaps for a specific multi-mission architecture, it had not yet been validated with historical data. This paper outlines the process of validating the probabilistic gap assessment method by utilizing data obtained from past NASA Earth Science mission formulation documents and provides a discussion of the results and takeaways from the validation. Future areas of improvement pertaining to both the modeling and simulation methodologies and underlying assumptions are identified and discussed.

Katharine Burn↗

NASA NTRS2022

Run Time Assurance for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Aircraft

NASA is conducting research to demonstrate and evaluate the application of Run Time Assurance (RTA) as a means to assure safety in Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft with highly automated or autonomous flight capability supervised by a single onboard pilot. The work described in this report demonstrates an application of RTA and examines the implications for design and analysis of aircraft functions and systems; aircraft safety hazards; safety assurance; development assurance; and pilot tasks and performance. This research effort also seeks to assess the efficacy of the combined application of traditional Functional Hazard Analysis (FHA) and the more modern System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) techniques to perform hazard analyses on aircraft with complex automated and autonomous systems and an onboard pilot. During the research effort we developed architectural designs of two alternate eVTOL aircraft, generally following the process characterized in the SAE standards ARP4754 and ARP4761. The design has focused on the control architectures of these aircraft, which are identical except that one incorporates RTA techniques to reduce the criticality of some key software components. Artifacts of this process include a taxonomy of aircraft-level functions, aircraft-level architecture diagrams, aircraft-level functional hazard assessments (AFHA), function allocations onto aircraft systems and subsystems, functional block diagrams for a select set of control-related functions, and system-level functional hazard assessments (SFHA) for those functions. This project has highlighted the notion that DAL D is something of a sweet spot for low-confidence controllers in an RTA-based design. Among the many activities described in DO-178C, the activities related to requirement verifiability, algorithmic accuracy, and test coverage can be the most challenging for the kinds of advanced control techniques that may be desirable in novel UAM designs, such as adaptive control, machine-learning, artificial intelligence, numerical search, and Monte Carlo based algorithms. Moreover, the standard requires that development teams demonstrate that errors leading to unacceptable failure conditions have been removed from the software. The RTA architecture, which cordons off the low-confidence function, makes it much easier to show this for these kinds of algorithms. With regard to the use of STPA and FHA as complementary hazard analysis techniques, our research effort led us to the conclusion that STPA should be used to derive requirements for hardware and software systems and/or components. Also, STPA is a natural complement to other processes in ARP4754A involving design studies and iteration.

Run-time assurance↗

NASA NTRS1991

Automated preflight methods for space-based rocket engines

The possibility of automated preflight engine checkouts is examined theoretically to minimize or eliminate the need for extravehicular activity related to engine maintenance in space. The minimum necessities of preflight information and processing are set forth with respect to routine engine examination. Emphasis is placed on the ability to remotely assess the factors which affect an engine's integrity and preparedness, with consideration given to different approaches and engine parameters. A range of approaches are introduced, the most sophisticated of which includes a full assessment of engine integrity is performed with the sensor and operational history-data system. Of the 36 checkout methods examined, three methods for determining engine integrity are defined with a range of integrated control and health monitoring sophistication.

Erickson, C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Stochastic prediction techniques for wind shear hazard assessment

The threat of low-altitude wind shear has prompted development of aircraft-based sensors that measure winds directly on the aircraft's intended flight path. Measurements from these devices are subject to turbulence inputs and measurement error, as well as to the underlying wind profile. Stochastic estimators are developed to process on-board Doppler sensor measurements, producing optimal estimates of the winds along the path. A stochastic prediction technique is described to predict the hazard to the aircraft from the estimates as well as the level of uncertainty of the hazard prediction. The stochastic prediction technique is demonstrated in a simulated microburst wind shear environment. Use of the technique in a decision-making process is discussed.

Stratton, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase understanding and reproducibility, and ultimately increase credibility and trust of the resulting report. Building on the foundation of the NCA, longer term plans for the GCIS include extending these capabilities throughout the U.S. Global Change Research Program, centralizing access to global change data and information across the thirteen agencies that comprise the program.

Tilmes, Curt A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Thermodynamic Cycle Analysis of Magnetohydrodynamic-Bypass Hypersonic Airbreathing Engines

The prospects for realizing a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) bypass hypersonic airbreathing engine are examined from the standpoint of fundamental thermodynamic feasibility. The MHD-bypass engine, first proposed as part of the Russian AJAX vehicle concept, is based on the idea of redistributing energy between various stages of the propulsion system flow train. The system uses an MHD generator to extract a portion of the aerodynamic heating energy from the inlet and an MHD accelerator to reintroduce this power as kinetic energy in the exhaust stream. In this way, the combustor entrance Mach number can be limited to a specified value even as the flight Mach number increases. Thus, the fuel and air can be efficiently mixed and burned within a practical combustor length, and the flight Mach number operating envelope can be extended. In this paper, we quantitatively assess the performance potential and scientific feasibility of MHD-bypass engines using a simplified thermodynamic analysis. This cycle analysis, based on a thermally and calorically perfect gas, incorporates a coupled MHD generator-accelerator system and accounts for aerodynamic losses and thermodynamic process efficiencies in the various engin components. It is found that the flight Mach number range can be significantly extended; however, overall performance is hampered by non-isentropic losses in the MHD devices.

Litchford, R. J.↗