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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

3D probabilistic fracture mechanics / computational fluid dynamics simulation of a reactor pressure vessel under transient conditions

Reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) are safety-critical light-water-reactor components that, under irradiation, experience long-term material degradation in the form of embrittlement. This can increase their susceptibility to fracture under thermal-shock conditions, which could occur during off-normal transients such as loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). During a LOCA, the most severe conditions for the RPV occur when emergency core cooling water is injected through the cold legs into the water-and-steam-filled RPV. The rapid cooling of the downcomer and internal RPV surface causes decreased temperature and elevated thermally driven tensile stresses in the RPV wall. This, combined with long-term material embrittlement, may cause fracture initiation at pre-existing flaws, challenging the integrity of the RPV. Assessing RPV integrity during transients with a large spatial variation in the coolant temperature requires a modeling approach that considers the effects of spatially varying coolant temperature on the fracture probability of a population of flaws distributed throughout the RPV, accounting for spatially varying embrittlement. Here, the present study addresses this need by demonstrating first-of-its-kind coupling of a high-fidelity 3D computational fluid dynamics code with 3D probabilistic fracture mechanics This was accomplished using representative models of a pressurized-water reactor subjected to small- and medium-break LOCA conditions, both of which can result in large spatial temperature variations. While the observed impact of accounting for 3D effects was minimal under the small-break LOCA this study indicates a significant increase in the probability of fracture initiation under the medium-break LOCA when 3D effects are considered, relative to a spatially uniform cooling scenario.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ensemble models for circuit topology estimation, fault detection and classification in distribution systems

This paper presents a methodology for simultaneous fault detection, classification, and topology estimation for adaptive protection of distribution systems. The methodology estimates the probability of the occurrence of each one of these events by using a hybrid structure that combines three sub-systems, a convolutional neural network for topology estimation, a fault detection based on predictive residual analysis, and a standard support vector machine with probabilistic output for fault classification. The input to all these sub-systems is the local voltage and current measurements. A convolutional neural network uses these local measurements in the form of sequential data to extract features and estimate the topology conditions. The fault detector is constructed with a Bayesian stage (a multitask Gaussian process) that computes a predictive distribution (assumed to be Gaussian) of the residuals using the input. Since the distribution is known, these residuals can be transformed into a Standard distribution, whose values are then introduced into a one-class support vector machine. The structure allows using a one-class support vector machine without parameter cross-validation, so the fault detector is fully unsupervised. Finally, a support vector machine uses the input to perform the classification of the fault types. All three sub-systems can work in a parallel setup for both performance and computation efficiency. In conclusion, we test all three sub-systems included in the structure on a modified IEEE123 bus system, and we compare and evaluate the results with standard approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal Overloading Risk Mitigation With a Semi-Analytical Probabilistic Model on Branch Current

A semi-analytical formulation is presented in this paper for the probability computation of branch current in multiphase systems. The developed formula is derived based on the linear power flow model in rectangular coordinates. The system uncertainty injections can be renewable energy resources or loads and are modeled using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). The developed formula can be used to compute the line current violation probability as well as integrate into optimal power flow problem as chance-constraint relaxation. Here, the proposed formula is first compared with the Matlab embedded numerical integration function to show its performance. Besides, the semi-analytical formula is validated and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method using the IEEE 123-bus system, EPRI Ckt5, and Ckt7 systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning with Adaptive Conservativeness for Distributionally Robust Optimization: Incentive Design for Voltage Regulation

Information asymmetry between the Distribution System Operator (DSO) and Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators (DERAs) obstructs designing effective incentives for voltage regulation. To capture this effect, we employ a Stackelberg game-theoretic framework, where the DSO seeks to overcome the information asymmetry and refine its incentive strategies by learning from DERA behavior over multiple iterations. We introduce a model-based online learning algorithm for the DSO, aimed at inferring the relationship between incentives and DERA responses. Given the uncertain nature of these responses, we also propose a distributionally robust incentive design model to control the probability of voltage regulation failure and then reformulate it into a convex problem. This model allows the DSO to periodically revise distribution assumptions on uncertain parameters in the decision model of the DERA. Finally, we present a gradient-based method that permits the DSO to adaptively modify its conservativeness level, measured by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, according to historical voltage regulation performance. The effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

adaptation models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning with Adaptive Conservativeness for Distributionally Robust Optimization: Incentive Design for Voltage Regulation: Preprint

Information asymmetry between the Distribution System Operator (DSO) and Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators (DERAs) obstructs designing effective incentives for voltage regulation. To capture this effect, we employ a Stackelberg game-theoretic framework, where the DSO seeks to overcome the information asymmetry and refine its incentive strategies by learning from DERA behavior over multiple iterations. We introduce a model-based online learning algorithm for the DSO, aimed at inferring the relationship between incentives and DERA responses. Given the uncertain nature of these responses, we also propose a distributionally robust incentive design model to control the probability of voltage regulation failure and then reformulate it into a convex problem. This model allows the DSO to periodically revise distribution assumptions on uncertain parameters in the decision model of the DERA. Finally, we present a gradient-based method that permits the DSO to adaptively modify its conservativeness level, measured by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, according to historical voltage regulation performance. The effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

distribution system operator↗
DOE OSTI2021

Corrosion of rebar in concrete. Part II: Literature survey and statistical analysis of existing data on chloride threshold

The literature is reviewed with respect to defining, measuring, and interpreting the chloride threshold (CT). CT was defined with a strong fundamental basis in the Point Defect Model. which also dictates the nature of the statistical analysis of surveyed CT values. A database of CT for various primary and secondary independent variables has been established. Statistical analyses reveal that CT is lognormally distributed, in accordance with the PDM, with most probable values being 0.85, 0.69, and 1.19 for %total Cl/cem, %free Cl/cem, and [Cl - ]/[OH - ], respectively. The breakdown and corrosion potentials follow normal distributions with means of 0.056 and -0.322 V SCE , respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Agent-based simulation and child protection systems: Rationale, implementation, and verification

Simulation models are an important tool used in health care and other disciplines to support operational research and decision-making. In the child protection literature, simulation models are an under-utilized source of research evidence. Here, in this paper, we describe the rationale for and the development of an agent-based simulation of a child protection system in the US. Using the investigation, prevention service, and placement histories of 600,000 children served in an urban child welfare system, we walk the reader through the development of a prototype known as OSPEDALE. The governing equations built into OSPEDALE probabilistically simulate the onset of investigations. Then, drawing from empirical survival distributions, the governing equations trace the probability of subsequent interactions with the system (recurrence of maltreatment, service referrals, and placement) conditional on the characteristics of children, their assessed risk level, and prior child protection system involvement. As an initial test of OSPEDALE's utility, we compare empirical admission counts with counts generated from OSPEDALE. Though the verification step is admittedly simple, the comparison shows that OSPEDALE replicates the empirical count of new admissions closely enough to justify further investment in OSPEDALE. Management of public child protection systems is increasingly research evidence-dependent. The emphasis on research evidence as a decision-support tool has elevated evidence acquired through randomized clinical trials. Though important, the evidence from clinical trials represents only one type of research evidence. Properly specified, simulation models are another source of evidence with real-world relevance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

CryoFold: Determining protein structures and data-guided ensembles from cryo-EM density maps

Cryoelectron microscopy requires molecular modeling for refinement of structures. Ensemble models arrive at low free-energy molecular structures, but are computationally expensive and limited to resolving only small proteins. Here, we introduce CryoFold, a pipeline of molecular dynamics simulations that determines ensembles of protein structures by integrating density data of varying sparsity at 3–5 Å resolution with sequence information and coarse-grained topological knowledge of the protein folds. We present six examples, folding proteins between 72 and 2,000 residues, including large membrane and multi-domain systems, and results from two Electron Microscopy Data Bank (EMDB) competitions. Driven by data from a single state, CryoFold discovers ensembles of common low-energy models together with rare low-probability structures that capture the equilibrium distribution of proteins constrained by the density maps. Many of these conformations are experimentally validated and functionally relevant. We arrive at a set of best practices for data-guided protein folding that are controlled using a Python graphical user interface (GUI).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Continuum radiated power density $(P^{\textrm{C}}_{\textrm{rad}})$ and effective charge $(Z_{\textrm{eff}})$ estimates from multi-energy photon-counting measurements

Multi-energy soft x-ray pinhole cameras have been designed, built, calibrated, and operated at Madison symmetric Torus, Alcator C-Mod, and more recently at Tokamak a configuration variable and Tungsten Environment in Steady-State Tokamak (WEST), to measure plasma emission across multiple energy ranges. Here we describe a new methodology to estimate the local continuum radiated power density and the plasma effective charge (Z eff ) directly from photon-counting measurements of the line-free continuum emission (Bremsstrahlung and Radiative Recombination) in several energy bands between 11 and 18 keV. This capability is particularly valuable for confinement systems using metal plasma-facing components, where x-ray losses from interactions with the sputtered wall can represent a significant fraction of the total radiated power (P rad ). The approach leverages a well-characterized detector responsivity, modeled by a complementary error function, and interprets the differential multi-energy measurements between adjacent energy levels through the probability density function of a Gaussian distribution. The implementation of this diagnostic technique is currently under development on the WEST tokamak, aiming at the goal of providing real-time P rad and Z eff measurements during long-pulse operation (up to 1000 s) in the 2026 campaign.

WEST↗
DOE OSTI2021

Properties of isoscalar giant multipole resonances in medium-heavy closed-shell nuclei: A semimicroscopic description

The semimicroscopic particle-hole dispersive optical model (PHDOM) is implemented to describe main properties of Isoscalar Giant Multipole Resonances (up to L=3) in medium-heavy closed-shell nuclei. Here, the main properties are characterized by the strength distribution, transition density, partial and total probabilities of direct one-nucleon decay. Calculation results obtained for the 208 Pb nucleus are compared with available experimental data.

190 ≤ A ≤ 219↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lifetimes of low-lying levels in 158 Gd

The low-lying structure of the well-deformed nucleus 158 Gd has been revisited to elucidate the nature of the low-lying states in 158 Gd. Earlier (p, t) studies identified numerous 0 + states below 4.3 MeV, prompting questions about whether these states correspond to collective vibrations or shape coexistence. New and previously reported (n, n' γ) measurements are combined, including γ-γ coincidences, excitation functions, and angular distributions, to extract lifetimes and transition probabilities for 44 excited states up to 2.7 MeV, including 32 previously unmeasured levels. Our results confirm or revise γ-ray placements and provide detailed transition strengths, revealing both weakly collective and strongly enhanced B(E2) and B(E1) transition probabilities. In particular, a tentative 0 + state at 2437.8 keV exhibits a strong interband B(E2) transition, which may be a candidate for a possible two-phonon (ββ) excitation. Systematic comparisons with neighboring Gd isotopes, Hartree–Fock–Bogoliubov, and interacting-boson model predictions suggest that the first excited 0 + state in 158 Gd is predicted to be a β-vibration, although it is weakly collective.

158Gd↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Transmission Line Switching Amid Wildfire-Prone Weather Under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially leading to prolonged power outages. To address this challenge, we propose a multistage optimization model that dynamically adjusts transmission grid topology in response to wildfire propagation, aiming to develop an optimal response policy. By accounting for decision-dependent uncertainty, where line survival probabilities depend on usage, we employ distributionally robust optimization to model uncertainty in line survival distributions. We adapt the stochastic nested decomposition algorithm and derive a deterministic upper bound for its finite convergence. To enhance computational efficiency, we exploit the Lagrangian dual problem structure for a faster generation of Lagrangian cuts. Using realistic data from the California transmission grid, we demonstrate the superior performance of dynamic response policies against two-stage alternatives through a comprehensive case study. In addition, after solving the multistage formulation, we construct easy-to-implement policies that significantly reduce computational burden while maintaining good performance in real-time deployment. History: Accepted by Russell Bent, Area Editor for Network Optimization: Algorithms and Applications. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity [Grant DE-AC02-05CH11231]. The work of R. Jiang was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems [Grant ECCS-1845980] and the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0323]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2025.1210 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2025.1210 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Estrada-Garcia, Juan-Alberto↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-speed tunable generation of random number distributions using actuated perpendicular magnetic tunnel junctions

Perpendicular magnetic tunnel junctions (pMTJs) actuated by nanosecond pulses are emerging as promising devices for true random number generation (TRNG) due to their intrinsic stochastic behavior and high throughput. In this work, we demonstrate the tunability and quality of random number distributions generated by pMTJs operating at a frequency of 104 MHz. First, changing the pulse amplitude is used to systematically vary the probability bias. The variance of the resulting bitstreams closely matches the expected binomial distribution, demonstrating consistency with an underlying sequence of Bernoulli trials. Second, the quality of uniform distributions of 8-bit random numbers generated with a probability bias of 0.5 is considered. A reduced chi-square analysis of these data shows that only two XOR operations are sufficient to achieve this distribution with p-values greater than 0.05. Finally, we show that there is a correlation between long-term probability bias variations and pMTJ resistance. These findings suggest that variations in the characteristics of the pMTJ underlie the observed variation of probability bias. In conclusion, our results highlight the potential of stochastically actuated pMTJs for high-speed, tunable TRNG applications, showing the importance of the stability of pMTJ device characteristics in achieving reliable, long-term performance.

Magnetic tunnel junctions↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power Grid Reliability Estimation via Adaptive Importance Sampling

Electricity production currently generates approximately 25% of greenhouse gas emissions in the USA. Thus, increasing the amount of renewable energy is a key step to carbon neutrality. However, integrating a large amount of fluctuating renewable generation is a significant challenge for power grid operating and planning. Grid reliability, i.e., an ability to meet operational constraints under power fluctuations, is probably the most important of them. In this letter, we propose computationally efficient and accurate methods to estimate the probability of line overflow, i.e., reliability constraints violation, under a known distribution of renewable energy generation. To this end, we investigate an importance sampling approach, a flexible extension of Monte-Carlo methods, which adaptively changes the sampling distribution to generate more samples near the reliability boundary. The approach allows to estimate overload probability in real-time based only on a few dozens of random samples, compared to thousands required by the plain Monte-Carlo. Our study focuses on high voltage direct current power transmission grids with linear reliability constraints on power injections and line currents. Herein, we propose a novel theoretically justified physics-informed adaptive importance sampling algorithm and compare its performance to state-of-the-art methods on multiple IEEE power grid test cases.

power system faults↗
DOE OSTI2026

Intrinsic nonlocality of spin- and polarization-resolved probabilities in strong-field quantum electrodynamics

Spin and polarization are central to precision tests of fundamental physics and for interpreting radiation from astrophysical sources and ultraintense laser-matter experiments. Here, focusing on the fundamental process of nonlinear Compton scattering, we demonstrate that a key assumption underlying current strong-field quantum electrodynamics models, i.e., that emission can be treated as an instantaneous random event sampled from a local differential rate, is inconsistent once emission angles, electron spin, and/or photon polarization are resolved. Namely, even in strictly constant and uniform fields , the resulting fully differential distribution is sign indefinite, yielding negative inferred probabilities. The physical reason is that the photon emission probability builds up over a finite length of the electron trajectory, the formation region, during which the electron direction changes by roughly the same small angle that defines the radiation cone. Therefore, we put forward a new method where we integrate over this formation region analytically to obtain a physically consistent electron spin and photon polarization model. We show that the implementation of our model is compatible with existing Monte Carlo and particle-in-cell workflows. Simulations of a GeV-class electron-laser collision accessible at current petawatt facilities and of emission in a pulsarlike magnetic field are shown to reveal spin and polarization patterns that differ even qualitatively from state-of-the-art local models. In particular, our new model predicts substantial angle-dependent circular photon polarization where the well-known collinear-emission approach yields none, and a pronounced helicity bias in the recoiling electrons absent from current predictions. These findings have direct implications for upcoming strong-field QED experiments and for interpreting polarized radiation from extreme astrophysical environments.

astrophysical electromagnetic fields↗
DOE OSTI2024

Density estimation via measure transport: Outlook for applications in the biological sciences

Abstract One among several advantages of measure transport methods is that they allow or a unified framework for processing and analysis of data distributed according to a wide class of probability measures. Within this context, we present results from computational studies aimed at assessing the potential of measure transport techniques, specifically, the use of triangular transport maps, as part of a workflow intended to support research in the biological sciences. Scenarios characterized by the availability of limited amount of sample data, which are common in domains such as radiation biology, are of particular interest. We find that when estimating a distribution density function given limited amount of sample data, adaptive transport maps are advantageous. In particular, statistics gathered from computing series of adaptive transport maps, trained on a series of randomly chosen subsets of the set of available data samples, leads to uncovering information hidden in the data. As a result, in the radiation biology application considered here, this approach provides a tool for generating hypotheses about gene relationships and their dynamics under radiation exposure.

gene expression data↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impedance Response Influenced by Variability in the Random Distribution of Physical Properties of Coated Materials in Two-Dimensional Space

Heterogeneous physical characteristics of a system featuring a single-layer film on a metallic surface have been explored via its impedance response. The Nyquist plot showed a distorted semicircle, indicative of the system's unique distribution characteristics. Utilizing a copula-based probability method, a two-dimensional deterministic impedance model was successfully integrated, accounting for spatial physical properties such as permittivity and electrical conductivity. This strategy enabled in-depth exploration and mechanistic quantification of a broad spectrum of properties. A quantitative understanding of impedance signal alterations, characterized by normally or log-normally correlated variables, was achieved through the variation in aspect ratio and characteristic frequency of the impedance spectra. Log-normally distributed electrical properties provided a superior representation of the distorted impedance spectra. As coefficient of variation (CV) values fluctuated, the aspect ratio and characteristic frequency showed heightened sensitivity to log-normal permittivity compared to log-normal electrical conductivity. Notably, a marked positive linear correlation between electrical properties resulted in an impedance response that approximated perfect semicircular spectra. The variability in the electrical properties' distribution was demonstrated by considering the correlation coefficient between electrical conductivity and the z-direction position. Furthermore, the highest aspect ratio of the impedance spectra was observed when the electrical conductivity was randomly distributed across the z-direction space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bootstrap-determined p values in lattice QCD

We present a general method to determine the probability that stochastic Monte Carlo data, in particular those generated in a lattice QCD calculation, would have been obtained were that data drawn from the distribution predicted by a given theoretical hypothesis. Such a probability, or p -value, is often used as an important heuristic measure of the validity of that hypothesis. The proposed method offers the benefit that it remains usable in cases where the standard Hotelling T 2 methods based on the conventional χ 2 statistic do not apply, such as for uncorrelated fits. Specifically, we analyze q 2 , defined as the correlated χ 2 statistic obtained using an arbitrary covariance matrix estimator, and show how to use the bootstrap as a data-driven method to determine the expected distribution of q 2 for a given hypothesis with minimal assumptions. This distribution can then be used to determine the p -value for a fit to the data. We also describe a bootstrap approach for quantifying the impact upon this p -value of estimating population parameters from a single ensemble of N samples. The overall method is accurate up to a 1 / N bias which we do not attempt to quantify. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗