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At least 541 records · Page 30

Mercuryʼs Circumsolar Dust Ring as an Imprint of a Recent Impact

A circumsolar dust ring has been recently discovered close to the orbit of Mercury. There are currently no hypotheses for the origin of this ring in the literature, so we explore four different origin scenarios here: the dust originated from (1) the sporadic meteoroid complex that comprises the major portion of the Zodiacal Cloud, (2) recent asteroidal/cometary activity, (3) hypothetical dust-generating bodies locked in mean-motion resonances beyond Mercury, and (4) bodies co-orbiting with Mercury. We find that only scenario (4) reproduces the observed structure and location of Mercury's dust ring. However, the lifetimes of Mercury's co-orbitals (<20 Ma) preclude a primordial origin of the co-orbiting source population due to dynamical instabilities and meteoroid bombardment, demanding a recent event feeding the observed dust ring. We find that an impact on Mercury can eject debris into the co-orbital resonance. We estimate the ages of six candidate impacts that formed craters larger than 40 km in diameter using high-resolution spacecraft data from MESSENGER and find two craters with estimated surface ages younger than 50 Ma. We find that the amount of mass transported from Mercury's surface into the co-orbital resonance from these two impacts is several orders of magnitude smaller than what is needed to explain the magnitude of Mercury's ring inferred from remote sensing. Therefore we suggest that numerous younger, smaller impacts collectively contributed to the origin of the ring. We conclude that the recent impact hypothesis for the origin of Mercury's dust ring is a viable scenario, whose validity can be constrained by future inner solar system missions.

Petr Pokorny↗

Microbial community structure at the U.S.-Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Station ALOHA: Inverse methods for estimating biochemical indicator ratios

Modeling biogeochemical fluxes in the marine plankton requires the application of factors for extrapolation of biomass indicators measured in the field (chlorophyll a, adenosine triphosphate, bacterial counts) to biomass carbon or nitrogen. These are often inferred from culture studies and are poorly constrained for natural populations. At least squares inverse method with a simple linear model constrains the values of several common indicator ratios, giving self-consistent solutions that provide useful information about the structure of the microbial community at our North Pacific Ocean study site (Station ALOHA (A Long-term Oligotrophic Habitat Assessment)). These results indicate that the fraction of the microbial biomass that is autotrophic (pigmented) is greater in the mixed layer than at the deep chlorophyll maximum layer and that heterotrophic bacteria are a significant but not necessarily predominant component of the microbial community in the euphotic zone.

Christian, James R.↗

A Coupled-Cluster Study of the Molecular Structure, Vibrational Spectrum, and Heats of Formation of XONO2 (X=H, F, Cl)

The equilibrium structures, harmonic vibrational frequencies, dipole moments, and IR intensities of nitric acid, fluorine nitrate, and chlorine nitrate have been investigated by using the singles and doubles coupled cluster method that also includes a perturbational estimate of the effects of connected triple excitations, CCSD(T). A standard triple-zeta double-polarized basis set was utilized. The equilibrium geometries and vibrational spectra of HONO2 and ClONO2 are shown to be in excellent agreement with the available experimental data. The ab initio vibrational spectrum of FONO2 is also shown to be in excellent agreement with experiment. Unlike the FOOF and FON molecules, but similar to the cis- and trans-FONO molecules, FONO2 is shown to possess normal bond distances. The bonding in FONO2 is shown to be more similar to that in ClONO2 than that in HONO2, although there are still significant differences, especially in the partial atomic charges as deduced from Mulliken populations. This causes FONO2 to possess almost no dipole moment, which is very different to both HONO2 and ClONO2. By using large atomic natural orbital basis sets, CCSD(T) energies are computed for four isodesmic reactions in order to determine an accurate heat of formation for FONO2. Our best estimate for DELTA H(raised circle) (sub f,298) is 3.1 plus or minus 2.0 kcal/mol, indicating that the F-ONO2 bond energy is 31.3 kcal/mol.

Lee, Timothy J.↗

Galactic distribution of pulsars

The density distributions of pulsars in luminosity, period, Z-distance, and galactocentric distance were derived using a uniform sample of pulsars detected during a 408 MHz pulsar survey at Jodrell Bank. There are indications of a fine scale structure in the spatial distribution and evidence that there is a general correlation with other galactic populations and the overall spiral structure. The electron layer in the galaxy is shown to be wider than the pulsar layer and uniform on a large scale. The number of pulsars in the galaxy was estimated and used to derive the pulsar birthrate.

Seiradakis, J. H.↗

The application of sensitivity analysis to models of large scale physiological systems

A survey of the literature of sensitivity analysis as it applies to biological systems is reported as well as a brief development of sensitivity theory. A simple population model and a more complex thermoregulatory model illustrate the investigatory techniques and interpretation of parameter sensitivity analysis. The role of sensitivity analysis in validating and verifying models, and in identifying relative parameter influence in estimating errors in model behavior due to uncertainty in input data is presented. This analysis is valuable to the simulationist and the experimentalist in allocating resources for data collection. A method for reducing highly complex, nonlinear models to simple linear algebraic models that could be useful for making rapid, first order calculations of system behavior is presented.

Leonard, J. I.↗

Monte Carlo computer simulations of Venus equilibrium and global resurfacing models

Two models have been proposed for the resurfacing history of Venus: (1) equilibrium resurfacing and (2) global resurfacing. The equilibrium model consists of two cases: in case 1, areas less than or equal to 0.03 percent of the planet are spatially randomly resurfaced at intervals of less than or greater than 150,000 yr to produce the observed spatially random distribution of impact craters and average surface age of about 500 m.y.; and in case 2, areas greater than or equal to 10 percent of the planet are resurfaced at intervals of greater than or equal to 50 m.y. The global resurfacing model proposes that the entire planet was resurfaced about 500 m.y. ago, destroying the preexisting crater population and followed by significantly reduced volcanism and tectonism. The present crater population has accumulated since then with only 4 percent of the observed craters having been embayed by more recent lavas. To test the equilibrium resurfacing model we have run several Monte Carlo computer simulations for the two proposed cases. It is shown that the equilibrium resurfacing model is not a valid model for an explanation of the observed crater population characteristics or Venus' resurfacing history. The global resurfacing model is the most likely explanation for the characteristics of Venus' cratering record. The amount of resurfacing since that event, some 500 m.y. ago, can be estimated by a different type of Monte Carolo simulation. To date, our initial simulation has only considered the easiest case to implement. In this case, the volcanic events are randomly distributed across the entire planet and, therefore, contrary to observation, the flooded craters are also randomly distributed across the planet.

Dawson, D. D.↗

EUV and infra-red lines of Fe 13

New level population calculations for Fe-XIII are presented, and line intensities predicted. The extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lines are compared with the recent observations of the solar extreme ultraviolet rocket telescope and spectrograph (SERTS), and density estimates for the active region are given. Uses of the Fe-XIII lines are suggested, both for the sun and other stars, and the possibility of coordinating SOHO studies of EUV lines with ground based observations of Fe-XIII infrared lines is discussed.

Young, P. R.↗

Human Health Risk Assessment Simulations in a Distributed Environment for Shuttle Launch

During the launch of a rocket under prevailing weather conditions, commanders at Cape Canaveral Air Force station evaluate the possibility of whether wind blown toxic emissions might reach civilian and military personnel in the near by area. In our model, we focused mainly on Hydrogen chloride (HCL), Nitrogen oxides (NOx) and Nitric acid (HNO3), which are non-carcinogenic chemicals as per United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) classification. We have used the hazard quotient model to estimate the number of people at risk. It is based on the number of people with exposure above a reference exposure level that is unlikely to cause adverse health effects. The risk to the exposed population is calculated by multiplying the individual risk and the number in exposed population. The risk values are compared against the acceptable risk values and GO or NO-go situation is decided based on risk values for the Shuttle launch. The entire model is simulated over the web and different scenaria can be generated which allows management to choose an optimum decision.

Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar↗

Nonequilibrium Stagnation-Line Radiative Heating for Fire II

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the shock-layer radiative heating to the Fire II vehicle using a new air radiation model and a viscous shock-layer flowfield model. This new air radiation model contains the most up-to-date properties for modeling the atomic-line, atomic photoionization, molecular band, and non-Boltzmann processes. The applied viscous shock-layer flowfield analysis contains the same thermophysical properties and nonequilibrium models as the LAURA Navier-Stokes code. Radiation-flowfield coupling, or radiation cooling, is accounted for in detail in this study. It is shown to reduce the radiative heating by about 30% for the peak radiative heating points, while reducing the convective heating only slightly. A detailed review of past Fire II radiative heating studies is presented. It is observed that the scatter in the radiation predicted by these past studies is mostly a result of the different flowfield chemistry models and the treatment of the electronic state populations. The present predictions provide, on average throughout the trajectory, a better comparison with Fire II flight data than any previous study. The magnitude of the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) contribution to the radiative flux is estimated from the calorimeter measurements. This is achieved using the radiometer measurements and the predicted convective heating. The VUV radiation predicted by the present model agrees well with the VUV contribution inferred from the Fire II calorimeter measurement, although only when radiation-flowfield coupling is accounted for. This agreement provides evidence that the present model accurately models the VUV radiation, which is shown to contribute significantly to the Fire II radiative heating.

Johnston, Christopher O.↗

Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Zhao, Chuang↗

The Near-Sun Dust Environment: Initial Observations from Parker Solar Probe

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) spacecraft has flown into the densest, previously unexplored, innermost region of our solar system's zodiacal cloud. While PSP does not have a dedicated dust detector, multiple instruments on the spacecraft are sensitive to the effects of meteoroid bombardment. Here, we discuss measurements taken during PSP's second orbit and compare them to models of the zodiacal cloud's dust distribution. Comparing the radial impact rate trends and the timing and location of a dust impact to an energetic particle detector, we find the impactor population to be consistent with dust grains on hyperbolic orbits escaping the solar system. Assuming PSP's impact environment is dominated by hyperbolic impactors, the total quantity of dust ejected from our solar system is estimated to be 0.5−10 tons/s. We expect PSP will encounter an increasingly intense impactor environment as its perihelion distance and semimajor axis are decreased.

J. R. Szalay↗

A New Bond Albedo for Performing Orbital Debris Brightness to Size Transformations

We have developed a technique for estimating the intrinsic size distribution of orbital debris objects via optical measurements alone. The process is predicated on the empirically observed power-law size distribution of debris (as indicated by radar RCS measurements) and the log-normal probability distribution of optical albedos as ascertained from phase (Lambertian) and range-corrected telescopic brightness measurements. Since the observed distribution of optical brightness is the product integral of the size distribution of the parent [debris] population with the albedo probability distribution, it is a straightforward matter to transform a given distribution of optical brightness back to a size distribution by the appropriate choice of a single albedo value. This is true because the integration of a powerlaw with a log-normal distribution (Fredholm Integral of the First Kind) yields a Gaussian-blurred power-law distribution with identical power-law exponent. Application of a single albedo to this distribution recovers a simple power-law [in size] which is linearly offset from the original distribution by a constant whose value depends on the choice of the albedo. Significantly, there exists a unique Bond albedo which, when applied to an observed brightness distribution, yields zero offset and therefore recovers the original size distribution. For physically realistic powerlaws of negative slope, the proper choice of albedo recovers the parent size distribution by compensating for the observational bias caused by the large number of small objects that appear anomalously large (bright) - and thereby skew the small population upward by rising above the detection threshold - and the lower number of large objects that appear anomalously small (dim). Based on this comprehensive analysis, a value of 0.13 should be applied to all orbital debris albedo-based brightness-to-size transformations regardless of data source. Its prima fascia genesis, derived and constructed from the current RCS to size conversion methodology (SiBAM Size-Based Estimation Model) and optical data reduction standards, assures consistency in application with the prior canonical value of 0.1. Herein we present the empirical and mathematical arguments for this approach and by example apply it to a comprehensive set of photometric data acquired via NASA's Liquid Mirror Telescopes during the 2000-2001 observing season.

Mulrooney, Mark K.↗

Galactic distribution of pulsars

The density distributions of pulsars in luminosity, period, Z-distance, and galactocentric distance were derived, using a uniform sample of pulsars detected during a 408-MHz pulsar survey at Jodrell Bank. There are indications of a fine-scale structure in the spatial distributions and evidence that there is a general correlation with other galactic populations and the overall spiral structure. The electron layer in our galaxy is shown to be wider than the pulsar layer and uniform on a large scale. The number of pulsars in the galaxy has been estimated and used to derive the pulsar birthrate.

Seiradakis, J. H.↗

A comparison of energetic ions in the plasma depletion layer and the quasi-parallel magnetosheath

Energetic ion spectra measured by the Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorers/Charge Composition Explorer (AMPTE/CCE) downstream from the Earth's quasi-parallel bow shock (in the quasi-parallel magnetosheath) and in the plasma depletion layer are compared. In the latter region, energetic ions are from a single source, leakage of magnetospheric ions across the magnetopause and into the plasma depletion layer. In the former region, both the magnetospheric source and shock acceleration of the thermal solar wind population at the quasi-parallel shock can contribute to the energetic ion spectra. The relative strengths of these two energetic ion sources are determined through the comparison of spectra from the two regions. It is found that magnetospheric leakage can provide an upper limit of 35% of the total energetic H(+) population in the quasi-parallel magnetosheath near the magnetopause in the energy range from approximately 10 to approximately 80 keV/e and substantially less than this limit for the energetic He(2+) population. The rest of the energetic H(+) population and nearly all of the energetic He(2+) population are accelerated out of the thermal solar wind population through shock acceleration processes. By comparing the energetic and thermal He(2+) and H(+) populations in the quasi-parallel magnetosheath, it is found that the quasi-parallel bow shock is 2 to 3 times more efficient at accelerating He(2+) than H(+). This result is consistent with previous estimates from shock acceleration theory and simulati ons.

Fuselier, Stephen A.↗

Analysis of helium-rich subdwarf O stars. 1: NLTE models, methods, and fits for 21 Palomar Green survey sdOs

Atmospheric parameters for 21 helium-rich hot subdwarf O stars from the Palomar Green survey are found from fits of non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) models to optical spectra. About 250 new NLTE models in the parameter range T(sub eff) from 35,000 to 65,000 K, log (g) from 4.0 to 6.5, and epsilon(He) from 50% He to 99% He have been calculated. A fit for each object is presented. Estimated distances and luminosities are calculated, assuming a mass of 0.5 solar masses. Large distances above the Galactic plane are found, and this implies that the majority of the sdO stars belong to a different stellar population than the sdB, planetary nebulae and white dwarf stars. Possibilities may include the halo and a 'thick disk.' Kinematical data from the literature are also discussed in view of the found distances. Five of the stars have been observed, modeled, and analyzed by Dreizler et al., and significant differences exist between their results and ours for these stars. The reason for these differences is not yet known, but the problem does not alter the conclusions about population membership that we present.

Thejll, P.↗

Investigating Downscaling Methods and Evaluating Climate Models for Use in Estimating Regional Water Resources in Mountainous Regions under Changing Climatic Conditions

The purpose of this three-year study is to develop and evaluate techniques to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of climate change in mountainous areas. Three main objectives are set out in the proposal. (1) To develop and evaluate transfer functions to link tropospheric circulation to regional snowfall. (2) To evaluate a suite of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for use in estimating synoptic scale circulation and the resultant regional snowfall. And (3) to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of changing climate in the two case study areas: the Upper Colorado River basin, and the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York State. Both regions provide water to large populations.

Frei, Allan↗

Facility Targeting, Protection and Mission Decision Making Using the VISAC Code

The Visual Interactive Site Analysis Code (VISAC) has been used by DTRA and several other agencies to aid in targeting facilities and to predict the associated collateral effects for the go, no go mission decision making process. VISAC integrates the three concepts of target geometric modeling, damage assessment capabilities, and an event/fault tree methodology for evaluating accident/incident consequences. It can analyze a variety of accidents/incidents at nuclear or industrial facilities, ranging from simple component sabotage to an attack with military or terrorist weapons. For nuclear facilities, VISAC predicts the facility damage, estimated downtime, amount and timing of any radionuclides released. Used in conjunction with DTRA's HPAC code, VISAC also can analyze transport and dispersion of the radionuclides, levels of contamination of the surrounding area, and the population at risk. VISAC has also been used by the NRC to aid in the development of protective measures for nuclear facilities that may be subjected to attacks by car/truck bombs.

Morris, Robert H.↗

Recent Results from the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar: 2016-2017

Since 1993, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has used the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar (Goldstone) to sample statistically the orbital debris environment. Due to the sensitivity of this radar, which can detect an approximately 3 mm-diameter conducting sphere at 1,000 km, it has filled an important role in the characterization of the sub-centimeter-sized orbital debris population. Through the years, the capabilities of this system have increased – recent updates include increased receiver bandwidth and a change in the bi-static observation geometry – both of which enhance the radar’s ability to estimate orbital parameters. In 2016, dual polarization capability was added, making this the first year where both right- and left-hand circularly polarized information was available from this sensor. This additional polarization information may enable better characterization of sub-centimeter-sized particles in low Earth orbit, particularly since the receiver triggers on reflected energy from both left- and right-handed circular polarizations independently. In this paper, we present measurements and results derived from data taken during the calendar years (CY) 2016-2017 by Goldstone and compare this dataset to measurements taken by the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) during a similar timeframe.

Murray, James↗