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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A Climatology and Extreme Value Analysis of Large Hail in China

In this paper, hail size records are analyzed at 2254 stations in China and a hail size climatology is developed based on gridded hail observations for the period 1960–2015. It is found that the annual percentiles of hail size records changed sharply and national-wide after 1980, therefore two periods, 1960–79 and 1980–2015, are studied. There are some similarities between the two periods in terms of the characteristics of hail size such as the spatial distribution patterns of mean annual maximum hail size and occurrence week of annual maximum hail size. The 1980–2015 period had higher observation density than the 1960–79 period, but showed smaller mean annual maximum hail size, especially in northern China. In the majority of grid boxes, the annual maximum hail size experienced a decreasing trend during the 1980–2015 period. A Gumbel extreme value model is fitted to each grid box to estimate the return periods of maximum hail size. The scale and location parameter of the fitted Gumbel distributions are higher in eastern China than in western China, thereby reflecting a greater likelihood of large hail in eastern China. In southern China, the maximum hail size exceeds 127 mm for a 10-yr return period, whereas in northern China maximum hail size exceeds this threshold for a 50-yr return period. Furthermore, the Gumbel model is found to potentially underestimate the maximum hail size for certain return periods, but provides a more informed picture of the spatial distribution of extreme hail size and the regional differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Hazard Assessment for Tornadoes, Straight-Line Wind, and Extreme Precipitation at the Savannah River Site

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities – tornadoes, straight-line winds, and heavy precipitation – are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate the occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 2013 by Werth et al. (W2013) are given. Using tornado statistics for i) the combined states of Georgia and South Carolina, and ii) a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS, we calculated the probability per year of any location at SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 7.04E-4 (1 chance in 1420) per year and tornadic wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years (corresponding to wind design category 3 (WDC-3), and 125,000 years (meeting WDC-4) (USDOE, 2016) were estimated to be 132 mph and 147 mph, respectively. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years and 173 mph every 125,000 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS and the SRS evaluation used the same basic model (Ramsdell and Rishel, 2007), the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight-line wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a GEV1 distribution and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight-line winds of 117 mph every 2500 years (the required WDC-3 standard) and 125 mph every 6250 years (WDC-4) at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the ANS-2.3-2011 report, which has wind speeds of 125mph and 133 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation, we compared the fits of two different theoretical extreme-value distributions and applied the one that fit the data best for each of several accumulation periods. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 10,000 years (corresponding to precipitation design category 3 (PDC-3) and 25,000 years (PDC-4) were estimated as 9.1 inches and 10.1 inches, respectively. For the 24-hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 12.02 inches and 13.17 inches, respectively, higher than comparable values provided in the W2013 report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey. XVIII. Searching for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in X-Rays

Theory predicts that a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) could be observed as a luminous active galactic nucleus (AGN) that periodically varies on the order of its orbital timescale. In X-rays, periodic variations could be caused by mechanisms including relativistic Doppler boosting and shocks. In this paper we present the first systematic search for periodic AGNs using 941 hard X-ray light curves (14–195 keV) from the first 105 months of the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) survey (2004–2013). We do not find evidence for periodic AGNs in Swift-BAT, including the previously reported SMBHB candidate MCG+11–11–032. We find that the null detection is consistent with the combination of the upper-limit binary population in AGNs in our adopted model, their expected periodic variability amplitudes, and the BAT survey characteristics. We have also investigated the detectability of SMBHBs against normal AGN X-ray variability in the context of the extended ROentgen Survey with an Imaging Telescope Array (eROSITA) survey. Under our assumptions of a binary population and the periodic signals they produce, which have long periods of hundreds of days, up to 13% true periodic binaries can be robustly distinguished from normal variable AGNs with the ideal uniform sampling. However, we demonstrate that realistic eROSITA sampling is likely to be insensitive to long-period binaries because longer observing gaps reduce their detectability. In contrast, large observing gaps do not diminish the prospect of detecting binaries of short, few-day periods, as 19% can be successfully recovered, the vast majority of which can be identified by the first half of the survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The rapid change in mental health among college students after introduction of on-campus quarantine during the 2022 Shanghai COVID-19 lockdown

Objectives Among the various impacts of disasters in terms of emotions, quarantine has been proven to result in significant increases in mental health problems. Studies of psychological resilience during outbreaks of epidemics tend to focus on long-term social quarantine. In contrast, insufficient studies have been conducted examining how rapidly negative mental health outcomes occur and how these outcomes change over time. We evaluated the time course of psychological resilience (over three different phases of quarantine) among students at Shanghai Jiao Tong University to investigate the influence of unexpected changes on college students. Methods An online survey was conducted from 5 to 7 April 2022. A structured online questionnaire was administered using a retrospective cohort trial design. Before 9 March (Period 1), individuals engaged in their usual activities without restrictions. From 9 to 23 March (Period 2), the majority of students were asked to remain in their dormitories on campus. From 24 March to early April (Period 3), restrictions were relaxed, and students were gradually allowed to participate in essential activities on campus. We quantified dynamic changes in the severity of students’ depressive symptoms over the course of these three periods. The survey consisted of five sets of self-reported questions: demographic information, lifestyle/activity restrictions, a brief mental health history, COVID-19-related background, and the Beck Depression Inventory, second edition. Results A total of 274 college students aged 18–42 years (mean = 22.34; SE = 0.24) participated in the study (58.39% undergraduate students, 41.61% graduate students; 40.51% male, 59.49% female). The proportion of students with depressive symptoms was 9.1% in Period 1, 36.1% in Period 2, and 34.67% in Period 3. Depressive symptoms increased notably with the introduction of the quarantine in Periods 2 and 3. Lower satisfaction with the food supplied and a longer duration of physical exercise per day were found to be positively associated with changes in depression severity in Periods 2 and 3. Quarantine-related psychological distress was more evident in students who were in a romantic relationship than in students who were single. Conclusion Depressive symptoms in university students rapidly increased after 2 weeks of quarantine and no perceptible reversal was observed over time. Concerning students in a relationship, ways to take physical exercise and to relax should be provided and the food supplied should be improved when young people are quarantined.

Ma, Dongni↗
DOE OSTI2021

Considering computational speed vs. accuracy: Choosing appropriate mesoscale RVE boundary conditions

Modeling a material’s microstructure using continuum theories allows for inspection of the relationship between coarse scale and fine scale behaviors. Computational limits generally require selection of a sub-volume from a bulk sample in order to directly model the microstructure. Boundary conditions are applied to the sub-volume to mimic the excluded bulk material. Appropriate selection of boundary conditions helps effectively determine the appropriate spatial scale required of the sub-volume. Applicable boundary conditions include direct displacement, periodic, and uniform traction. While direct displacement and periodic boundary conditions are commonly used, uniform traction boundary conditions have seen limited use due to rigid body stability issues in simulations of compression or shear deformation. A new application of uniform traction boundary conditions was developed through linear constraint equations, similar to approaches employed by direct displacement and periodic boundary conditions, to quench rigid body motions with minimal interference of the relative deformation of the model. These boundary conditions were tested by compressing several synthetically generated periodic microstructures using the finite element method. Evaluating the effective stiffness along the compression axis, the direct displacement boundary condition produced the stiffest response, whereas the uniform traction boundary condition produced the most compliant. Periodic boundary conditions produced the same response for all volumes analyzed and both the direct displacement and uniform traction boundary conditions trended toward the periodic response as the domain volume increased. Computational performance was also evaluated for each boundary condition using implicit and explicit solvers. Direct displacement boundary conditions presented the lowest computational cost of all of the boundary conditions followed by periodic then uniform traction. The computational expense of periodic and uniform traction boundary conditions limited the viable spatial scale and mesh resolutions able to be simulated. Selection of appropriate boundary conditions for specific uses need to be a balance between allowable computational expense and accuracy of the method. Techniques for evaluating which boundary conditions to use are discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy efficiency for the growing South Carolina manufacturing industries. Final Report

The overall goals of the proposed project were to establish a DOE Industrial Assessment Center with Clemson University as the main center and to cement the Clemson IAC as the "go to" resource for energy efficiency expertise and assistance to manufacturing businesses in the state of South Carolina. The Clemson IAC included a satellite support center through partnership with the SCE&G Energy Innovation Center at the Clemson University Restoration Institute (CURI) in North Charleston, SC. The Clemson IAC was the first IAC based in the state with the goal to serve the entire state. The Clemson IAC provided SMEs with no-cost energy assessments, trained the next generation of energy-savvy engineers, and provided outreach to non-participating SMEs. Project objectives were structured into five 12-month Budget Periods. In the first Budget Period, the primary objective was to establish methods and materials for Clemson IAC assessments, training, and outreach. In the remaining Budget Periods, the primary objectives were to perform assessments, train students, and pursue outreach to hard-to-reach SMEs that did not participate in energy assessments. Expected outcomes in the first Budget Period included the development of standard procedures for performing energy assessments, including data acquisition, processing, and communication both within the team and in assessment reports prepared for SMEs. Outcomes related to student training in the first Budget Period included detailed curriculum and internship plans for students pursuing the DOE IAC Certificate and energy-related Clemson University certificates. Outcomes in the first Budget Period also included the development of outreach materials and plans for outreach events. In Budget Periods 2 through 5, major expected outcomes are trained students and completed energy assessments and reports for SMEs. Decision points and Go-No Go criteria for the end of each Budget Period, presented in more detail below, are based on the number of students in training and the number of energy assessments performed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

TOI-2076 and TOI-1807: Two Young, Comoving Planetary Systems within 50 pc Identified by TESS that are Ideal Candidates for Further Follow Up

We report the discovery of two planetary systems around comoving stars: TOI-2076 (TIC 27491137) and TOI-1807 (TIC 180695581). TOI-2076 is a nearby (41.9 pc) multiplanetary system orbiting a young (204 ± 50 Myr), bright (K = 7.115 in TIC v8.1) start. TOI-1807 hosts a single transiting planet and is similarly nearby (42.58 pc), similarly young (180 ± 40 Myr ), and bright. Both targets exhibit significant, periodic variability due to starspots, characteristic of their young ages. Using photometric data collected by TESS we identify three transiting planets around TOI-2076 with radii of R {sub b} = 3.3 ± 0.04 R {sub ⊕}, R {sub c} = 4.4 ± 0.05 R {sub ⊕}, and R {sub d} = 4.1 ± 0.07 R {sub ⊕}. Planet TOI-2076b has a period of P {sub b} = 10.356 days. For both TOI-2076c and d, TESS observed only two transits, separated by a 2 yr interval in which no data were collected, preventing a unique period determination. A range of long periods (<17 days) are consistent with the data. We identify a short-period planet around TOI-1807 with a radius of R {sub b} = 1.8 ± 0.04 R {sub ⊕} and a period of P {sub b} = 0.549 days. Their close proximity, and bright, cool host stars, and young ages make these planets excellent candidates for follow up. TOI-1807b is one of the best-known small (R < 2 R{sub ⊕}) planets for characterization via eclipse spectroscopy and phase curves with JWST. TOI-1807b is the youngest ultra-short-period planet discovered to date, providing valuable constraints on formation timescales of short-period planets. Given the rarity of young planets, particularly in multiple-planet systems, these planets present an unprecedented opportunity to study and compare exoplanet formation, and young planet atmospheres, at a crucial transition age for formation theory.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi‐year hydroclimatic droughts and pluvials across the conterminous United States

Abstract Time series of water‐year runoff for 2,109 hydrologic units (HUs) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) for the 1900 through 2014 period were used to identify drought and pluvial (i.e., wet) periods. Characteristics of the drought and pluvial events including frequency, duration, and severity were examined and compared. Additionally, a similar analysis was performed using gridded tree‐ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the period 1475 through 2005 to place the drought and pluvial characteristics determined using water‐year runoff for 1900 through 2014 in the context of multi‐century climate variability. The temporal and spatial variability of droughts and pluvials determined using runoff for the 1900 through 2014 period indicated that most drought events in the CONUS occurred before about 1970, whereas most pluvial periods occurred after about 1970. This change in the frequencies of drought and pluvial events around 1970 was largely related to an increase in fall (October through December) precipitation across much of the central United States. Also, the duration and severity of droughts and pluvials identified using runoff for the 1900 through 2014 period generally were not significantly different from the drought and pluvial characteristics identified using the PDSI for the 1475 through 2005 period.

McCabe, Gregory J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and validation of the cavitation-induced erosion risk assessment tool

This work presents the development of a cavitation-induced erosion risk assessment (CIERA) tool that links multiphase flow simulation predictions with the progress towards material erosion. To develop a robust erosion modeling tool, the cavitation and erosion predictions for pressurized diesel fuel flow within a channel geometry were validated over a range of Reynolds and cavitation number conditions in two different aluminum channel geometries, one featuring a rounded inlet corner and the other with a sharp inlet corner. The multiphase flow development within the channel was modeled using a compressible mixture model, where phase change was represented with the homogeneous relaxation model and the turbulent flow evolution was modeled using a dynamic structure approach for Large Eddy Simulations. To improve representation of the incubation period before material rupture over existing approaches, a physics-based metric was derived based on the cumulative energy absorbed by the solid material from repeated hydrodynamic impacts. When the average peak pressure was related to the incubation period, the incubation period and its sensitivity to changes in flow conditions were found to be overpredicted. In contrast, predictions from CIERA provided a more accurate means to qualitatively and quantitatively predict the influence of flow conditions on the incubation period before material erosion. When the predicted stored energy was related to the solid material properties to estimate the incubation period, multiphase flow simulations demonstrated accurate representation of the sensitivity of erosion severity to changes in flow conditions. The use of CIERA led to quantitative agreement of the predicted incubation period within 5% of the experimentally measured incubation period.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identifying COVID-19 cases and extracting patient reported symptoms from Reddit using natural language processing

We used social media data from “covid19positive” subreddit, from 03/2020 to 03/2022 to identify COVID-19 cases and extract their reported symptoms automatically using natural language processing (NLP). We trained a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers classification model with chunking to identify COVID-19 cases; also, we developed a novel QuadArm model, which incorporates Question-answering, dual-corpus expansion, Adaptive rotation clustering, and mapping, to extract symptoms. Our classification model achieved a 91.2% accuracy for the early period (03/2020-05/2020) and was applied to the Delta (07/2021–09/2021) and Omicron (12/2021–03/2022) periods for case identification. We identified 310, 8794, and 12,094 COVID-positive authors in the three periods, respectively. The top five common symptoms extracted in the early period were coughing (57%), fever (55%), loss of sense of smell (41%), headache (40%), and sore throat (40%). During the Delta period, these symptoms remained as the top five symptoms with percent authors reporting symptoms reduced to half or fewer than the early period. During the Omicron period, loss of sense of smell was reported less while sore throat was reported more. Our study demonstrated that NLP can be used to identify COVID-19 cases accurately and extracted symptoms efficiently.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient, Compact, and Smooth Variable Propulsion Motor (Final Report)

In this project, a new architecture of highly efficient hydraulic motor was developed for the propulsion of off-highway vehicles. The motor uses an adjustable linkage driving a cam to vary the displacement of the piston, resulting in a Variable Displacement Linkage Motor (VDLM). The motor uses low friction rolling element bearings to significantly reduce mechanical friction, especially in the demanding low-speed high-torque conditions experienced by off-highway vehicles. The VDLM has high torque capabilities for its size due to the radial piston packaging and use of a multi-lobe cam. A VDLM is very smooth due to the ability to tune the torque ripple through the design of the cam profile. The project was divided into three periods. During the first period, a dynamic model was constructed of the motor to predict the performance of the motor and the vehicle. During the second period, a single-cylinder learning prototype was designed, built, and tested to validate the models constructed in the first period. In the third period, a multi-cylinder prototype motor was optimized, designed, fabricated, and tested. The motor demonstrated excellent mechanical efficiency (above 92.5% across the range of displacements), but the experimentally measure volumetric efficiency was lower than expected due to higher leakage rates created by the poor tolerance control on the prototype. To validate the dynamic models developed in the first period and better understand design trade-offs. In the third period a multi-cylinder concept demonstration prototype will be designed, fabricated, and tested. The final prototype will be tested on a motor dynamometer and will be utilized in hardware-in-the-loop testing to demonstrate its efficiency and performance impacts on the overall drive train. The experimental results were used in a drive train simulation of a compact track loader operating through a drive cycle. Using the VDLM in a hydrostatic circuit yielded 17.1% reduction in fuel consumption and 36.5% reduction in a series hybrid transmission.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quarterly Technical Progress Report Piperazine Advanced Stripper (PZAS™) Front End Engineering Design

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document summarizes the status of Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0031844, “Piperazine Advanced Stripper (PZAS™) Front-End Engineering Design,” during the reporting period of January 1 through March 31, 2020. The objective of this project is to develop accurate installed costs by conducting a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) of PZAS™ at Golden Spread Electric Cooperative’s (GSEC) Mustang Station located in Denver City, TX. Complementary benefits include positioning the technology for a commercial project with the 45Q tax credits, qualifying PZAS™ for use on a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Cogen facility, and to provide cost detail to optimize PZAS™ and help guide R&D of second-generation solvent CO2 capture technologies. Results from the FEED will be used to evaluate the economic feasibility of the process at Mustang Station. This project is funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under the aforementioned Cooperative Agreement. Exxon, Total, Chevron, UOP-Honeywell, and the University of Texas (UT) are project co-funders. AECOM and Trimeric are project team members; UT is the prime contractor. Summary of Progress Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0031844 was established in October 2019. The current reporting period, January 1 through March 31, 2020, is the second technical progress reporting period for the project. Several milestones were accomplished during this reporting period, including: • Kickoff Meeting with DOE on February 3, 2020. • Kickoff Meeting with GSEC on March 30, 2020. (Note: Due to Covid-19 travel restrictions and shelter-in-place guidelines, the kickoff meeting was conducted remotely via videoconferencing. See attached notes from that telecon.) • Updated Project Management Plan March 2020, submitted with this quarterly report Other activities during the quarter included progress on contracting and other legal agreements (e.g., non-disclosure agreements), internal kickoff meetings at both AECOM and Trimeric, and development of a Technical Implementation Plan (TIP). The TIP will help the team to make critical, early process decisions and, ultimately, to develop a project and process design basis. Note that all agreements between project team participants are complete as of this submittal, except the vendor agreement with Kiewit (steam cycle modeling). Plans for Next Reporting Period Activities during the next reporting period (April 1, 2020 through June 30, 2020) include: the completion of the Project Design Basis and progress towards the Process Design Basis/Process Design Package (PDP). The Project Design Basis is due as a deliverable and milestone during the next reporting period.

Rochelle, Gary T.↗
DOE OSTI2025

In Situ Observation of Ion Migration in a Ferroelectric Ionic Conductor Rb-KTP during Thermal Annealing

Ion exchange in Rb-doped KTiOPO 4 has facilitated significant advancements in ferroelectric domain engineering, yet understanding the underlying mechanisms remains in its infancy. We perform time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry analysis on multiple periodically ion-exchanged and periodically poled Rb-doped KTiOPO 4 samples under different temperatures and annealing durations. The results are compared between annealing in air, which involved ex situ annealing before periodic poling, and vacuum annealing conducted in situ after periodic poling. The Rb + diffusion profile after periodic ion exchange forms a tooth-shaped pattern. We show that in situ annealing causes a surface pinning effect on the nonpolar face, limiting Rb + migration along the polar axis at the surface. Once the pinned layer is removed through milling, the underlying Rb + diffusion is distinctively different from the surface. Additionally, the rate of Rb + diffusion during in situ annealing is linear, while the periodic domain structures remain stable after annealing. These results contribute to understanding the ionic diffusion process in a ferroelectric ionic conductor and using ion exchange to tailor the linear and nonlinear properties of KTiOPO 4 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long-Range Ordered Amorphous Atomic Chains as Building Blocks of a Superconducting Quasi-One-Dimensional Crystal

Crystalline and amorphous structures are two of the most common solid-state phases. Crystals having orientational and periodic translation symmetries are usually both short-range and long-range ordered, while amorphous materials have no long-range order. Short-range ordered but long-range disordered materials are generally categorized into amorphous phases. In contrast to the extensively studied crystalline and amorphous phases, the combination of short-range disordered and long-range ordered structures at the atomic level is extremely rare and so far has only been reported for solvated fullerenes under compression. Here, a report on the creation and investigation of a superconducting quasi-1D material with long-range ordered amorphous building blocks is presented. Using a diamond anvil cell, monocrystalline (TaSe4)(2)I is compressed and a system is created where the TaSe(4)atomic chains are in amorphous state without breaking the orientational and periodic translation symmetries of the chain lattice. Strikingly, along with the amorphization of the atomic chains, the insulating (TaSe4)(2)I becomes a superconductor. The data provide critical insight into a new phase of solid-state materials. The findings demonstrate a first ever case where superconductivity is hosted by a lattice with periodic but amorphous constituent atomic chains.

combination of crystalline and amorphous structure↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fourier Neural Networks as Function Approximators and Differential Equation Solvers

We present a Fourier neural network (FNN) that can be mapped directly to the Fourier decomposition. The choice of activation and loss function yields results that replicate a Fourier series expansion closely while preserving a straightforward architecture with a single hidden layer. The simplicity of this network architecture facilitates the integration with any other higher-complexity networks, at a data pre- or postprocessing stage. We validate this FNN on naturally periodic smooth functions and on piecewise continuous periodic functions. We showcase the use of this FNN for modeling or solving partial differential equations with periodic boundary conditions. The main advantages of the current approach are the validity of the solution outside the training region, interpretability of the trained model, and simplicity of use.

Fourier decomposition↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1–2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Evaluation of Cyber-Attacks on Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) are not only exposed to passive threats (e.g., physical faults) but also active threats such as cyber-attacks launched on the network-based control systems. The impact of cyber-attacks on GEB operation are not yet fully understood, especially as regards the performance of grid services. To quantify the consequences of cyber-attacks on GEBs, this paper proposes a modeling and simulation framework that includes different cyber-attack models and key performance indexes to quantify the performance of GEB operation under cyber-attacks. The framework is numerically demonstrated to model and evaluate cyber-attacks such as data intrusion attacks and Denial-of-Service attacks on a typical medium-sized office building that uses the BACnet/IP protocol for communication networks. Simulation results show that, while different types of attacks could compromise the building systems to different extents, attacks via the remote control of a chiller yield the most significant consequences on a building system’s operation, including both the building service and the grid service. It is also noted that a cyber-attack impacts the building systems during the attack period as well as the post-attack period, which suggests that both periods should be considered to fully evaluate the consequences of a cyber-attack.

Fu, Yanyang↗
DOE OSTI2025

An interregional optimization approach for time series aggregation in continent-scale electricity system models

Modeling electric power systems with high shares of weather-dependent resources requires tradeoffs between temporal, spatial, and operational resolution. Many studies perform time series aggregation using clustering algorithms to reduce the temporal dimension, but when modeling continent-scale electricity systems that are large enough to contain multiple independent weather systems, this approach requires large numbers of representative periods to minimize errors in regional wind and solar capacity factors. Here, a new optimization-based approach for representative period selection and weighting is introduced that minimizes regional errors in average renewable capacity factors and electricity demand. The method delivers higher regional fidelity with fewer representative periods than alternative clustering methods when applied to wind, solar, and demand profiles for the contiguous United States. When representative periods are selected from multiple weather years, the optimized method reproduces regional averages with lower error than a complete 365-day time series from any single weather year. The method identifies only representative (as opposed to outlying) periods but can be combined with an iterative "stress period" identification approach to guide efficient decision-making considering both average and high-risk weather conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗