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DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Variational encoder geostatistical analysis (VEGAS) with an application to large scale riverine bathymetry

Estimation of riverbed profiles, also known as bathymetry, plays a vital role in many applications, such as safe and efficient inland navigation, prediction of bank erosion, land subsidence, and flood risk management. The high cost and complex logistics of direct bathymetry surveys, i.e, depth imaging, have encouraged the use of indirect measurements such as surface flow velocities. However, estimating high-resolution bathymetry from indirect measurements is an inverse problem that can be computationally challenging. Here, we propose a reduced-order model (ROM) based approach that utilizes a variational autoencoder (VAE), a type of deep neural network with a narrow layer in the middle, to compress bathymetry and flow velocity information and accelerate bathymetry inverse problems from flow velocity measurements. In our application, the shallow-water equations (SWE) with appropriate boundary conditions (BCs), e.g., the discharge and/or the free surface elevation, constitute the forward problem, to predict flow velocity. Then, ROMs of the SWEs are constructed on a nonlinear manifold of low dimensionality through a variational encoder and the bathymetry inversion problem is derived on the low-dimensional latent space in a Hierarchical Bayesian setting. Further, the reformulation allows variational inference with a small number (e.g., $\mathscr{O}$ (100) of ROM runs and efficient uncertainty quantification. We have tested our inversion approach on a one-mile reach of the Savannah River, GA, USA. Once the neural network is trained (offline stage), the proposed technique can perform the inversion operation orders of magnitude faster than traditional inversion methods that are commonly based on linear projections, such as principal component analysis (PCA), or the principal component geostatistical approach (PCGA). Furthermore, tests show that the algorithm can estimate the bathymetry with good accuracy even with sparse flow velocity measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

PRIME

SAND2021-0565 O PRIME is a modeling framework designed for the real-time characterization and forecasting of partially observed epidemics. The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. The framework can accommodate multiple epidemic waves and can help identify different disease dynamics at the regional, state, and country levels. Examples are provided using publicly available COVID-19 data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗

NASA NTRS1971

Remote Sensing of Sea Surface Temperature from Earth Satellites

Techniques for measuring sea surface temperature using remote sensors in earth orbiting satellites are discussed. Specific reference is made to the infrared sensors carried by the TIROS Operational Satellite. The development of a method to examine a large number of measurements in order to differentiate the temperature effects of clouds is described. It is stated that the system used is completely objective and minimizes the influence of atmospheric absorption, cloud contamination, and instrumental noise on the inferred sea surface temperatures.

Rao, P. K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Power balance and divertor asymmetries in the Super-X divertors of MAST-U using SOLPS-ITER

Spherical tokamaks (STs) present unique challenges and opportunities in the area of particle and power exhaust, intensified due to their more compact sizes. Substantial efforts are underway in STs to determine the limits in dissipative operational regimes and advanced divertor solutions, including at MAST-U which provides access to the Super-X divertor configuration. Power balance, and upper/lower divertor asymmetries have been studied using SOLPS-ITER simulations of the MAST-U Super-X divertor. A set of simulations with experimentally inferred transport coefficients with E x B and diamagnetic drifts activated, consisting of density and power scans, and high field side vs low field side gas puff locations, have been used for code experimentation to uncover trends beyond the current experimental parameter space. The upper biased asymmetry (U:L > 1) of the ratio of the peaks of the plasma energy flux densities at the outer targets increases with heating power and decreases with gas puff strength, going from symmetric to up to a factor of 15. The upper target electron temperature has been found to be a good ordering quantity for the magnitude of this asymmetry for all heating powers, gas puff strength, and gas puff locations. The lower divertor biased asymmetry (U:L < 1) of the radiation patterns processed through SOLPS-based bolometry synthetic diagnostics is in qualitative agreement with resistive bolometry experimental results, and it is in quantitative agreement with the trend of the total volume radiation within the divertors of SOLPS. However, radiation measurements alone are not sufficient to infer the magnitude of the asymmetry of the peaks of the power loads at the targets.

MAST-U↗

DOE OSTI2025

Score-Based Physics-Informed Neural Networks for High-Dimensional Fokker–Planck Equations

The Fokker-Planck (FP) equation is a foundational partial differential equation (PDE) in stochastic processes involving Brownian motions. However, the curse of dimensionality (CoD) poses a formidable challenge when dealing with high-dimensional FP equations. Although Monte Carlo simulation and (vanilla) Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have shown the potential to tackle CoD, both methods exhibit significant numerical errors in high dimensions when dealing with the probability density function (PDF) associated with Brownian motion. The point-wise PDF values tend to decrease exponentially as dimensionality increases, surpassing the precision of numerical simulations and resulting in substantial errors. In addition, due to its massive sampling, Monte Carlo fails to offer fast sampling. Modeling the logarithm likelihood (LL) via vanilla PINNs transforms the FP equation into a notoriously difficult Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, which is impractical for PINN learning, whose error grows rapidly with dimension. To this end, we propose a novel approach utilizing a score-based solver to fit the score function in stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The score function, defined as the gradient of the LL, plays a fundamental role in inferring LL and PDF and enables fast SDE sampling, offering an effective means to overcome the CoD. Three fitting methods, Score Matching (SM), Sliced Score Matching (SSM), and Score-PINN, are introduced, each contributing unique advantages in computational complexity, accuracy, and generality. The proposed score-based SDE solver operates in two stages: first, employing score matching or Score-PINN to acquire the score function; and second, solving the LL via an ordinary differential equation (ODE) using the obtained score function. Comparative evaluations across these methods showcase varying trade-offs. The proposed methodology is evaluated across diverse SDEs, including anisotropic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, geometric Brownian motion, and Brownian motion with varying eigenspace. We also test various distributions, including Gaussian, Log-normal, Laplace, and Cauchy distributions. The numerical results demonstrate the score-based SDE solver’s stability, speed, and performance across different experimental settings, solidifying its potential as a solution to CoD for high-dimensional FP equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Acceptance criteria for in situ surveillance of MSR materials based on thermally-loaded mechanical test articles

This report describes practices and acceptance test procedures for designing, running, and maintaining a material surveillance program in a future operating molten salt reactor. The programs described here rely on test data from passively actuated mechanical test articles inserted into critical regions of the reactor and periodically removed for out-of-reactor testing. The report defines definite acceptance procedures, based on the results of these tests, to determine whether a component can continue to operate accounting for the accumulation of environmentally-assisted mechanical damage in the component materials to date, and extrapolated out through the next inspection period. Additionally, the report describes work on a software tool implementing many of the surveillance methods and procedures described here and progress on simplified methods for inferring damage accumulation in the test articles, based on out-of-reactor thermal cycling, that do not rely on sophisticated numerical analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1992

Situation assessment in the Paladin tactical decision generation system

Paladin is a real-time tactical decision generator for air combat engagements. Paladin uses specialized knowledge-based systems and other Artificial Intelligence (AI) programming techniques to address the modern air combat environment and agile aircraft in a clear and concise manner. Paladin is designed to provide insight into both the tactical benefits and the costs of enhanced agility. The system was developed using the Lisp programming language on a specialized AI workstation. Paladin utilizes a set of air combat rules, an active throttle controller, and a situation assessment module that have been implemented as a set of highly specialized knowledge-based systems. The situation assessment module was developed to determine the tactical mode of operation (aggressive, defensive, neutral, evasive, or disengagement) used by Paladin at each decision point in the air combat engagement. Paladin uses the situation assessment module; the situationally dependent modes of operation to more accurately represent the complex decision-making process of human pilots. This allows Paladin to adapt its tactics to the current situation and improves system performance. Discussed here are the details of Paladin's situation assessment and modes of operation. The results of simulation testing showing the error introduced into the situation assessment module due to estimation errors in positional and geometric data for the opponent aircraft are presented. Implementation issues for real-time performance are discussed and several solutions are presented, including Paladin's use of an inference engine designed for real-time execution.

Mcmanus, John W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Frequency Support Scheme of Generic Inverter-Based Resource Models for Renewable-Dominated Power Grids

The frequency response of SG-dominated power grids is predictable ahead of an occurrence of a frequency event because the frequency response of SGs is consistent, and it can be inferred from the swing equation [1]. However, increasing the portion of IBRs in an SG-dominated power grid might make the characteristics of the conventional power grids no longer valid because this changing resource mix affects grid dynamics and controls [2]. Thus, maintaining these characteristics greatly benefits the control and operation of the power grids with high penetration of IBRs. To maintain these characteristics in IBR-dominated power grids, IBRs should have frequency response capability similar to that of an SG. The WECC modeling validation subcommittee has developed generic IBR models for large system planning [3]-[5]. These models can represent various vendors' dynamic behavior for WTG, PV, and ESS [5]. The current generic IBR models approved by WECC can provide frequency response only from droop control loops in REPC models [6], [7]. The contribution of the loops is proportional to the frequency deviation from the nominal frequency. Thus, it presents an insufficient contribution to arrest frequency variation compared to the frequency response of SGs because it allows a high ROCOF in the early stage of frequency events. This shortfall will become greater as the PL of IBRs increases in power grids. Controller enhancement for the generic IBR models is required to secure the frequency stability under high PL of IBRs as in the SG-dominated power grids. This paper proposes a control extension for the generic IBR models to enhance the frequency support capabilities and discusses the classification of frequency support for the different types of IBR considering their operating constraints. An inertial control scheme is implemented in the REPC and REEC models of the generic IBR models to achieve these objectives. The inertial control scheme includes the following stages: Control area data acquisition, inertia time constant estimation, IBR-related constraint check, IBR contribution determination, and inertial response provision. In the scheme, a REPC acquires control area data from a system operator and estimates a total inertia time constant for the control area the applicable IBR power plant belongs. Then, the estimated inertial time constant is transferred to each IBR controller—REEC—within the power plant. Each REEC checks the availability of applicable IBR for inertial response participation. If the IBR is available, the REEC amplifies the estimated inertial time constant to utilize it for inertial response provision. In this way, the proposed inertial response scheme extends the functionality of the generic IBR models to provide SG-like frequency response within their constraints. Various scenarios considering different IBR types, IBR penetration levels, and frequency control schemes were simulated and compared in an IEEE 39-bus system using PSCAD simulator to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

Kim, Jinho↗

DOE OSTI2022

Doppler Lidar (DL) Instrument Handbook

The Doppler lidar (DL) is an active remote sensing instrument that provides range- and time-resolved measurements of radial velocity and attenuated backscatter. The principle of operation is similar to radar in that pulses of energy are transmitted into the atmosphere; the energy scattered back to the transceiver is collected and measured as a time-resolved signal. From the time delay between each outgoing transmitted pulse and the backscattered signal, the distance to the scatterer is inferred. The radial or line-of-sight velocity of the scatterers is determined from the Doppler frequency shift of the backscattered radiation. The DL uses a heterodyne detection technique in which the return signal is mixed with a reference laser beam (i.e., local oscillator) of known frequency. An onboard signal processing computer then determines the Doppler frequency shift from the spectra of the heterodyne signal. The energy content of the Doppler spectra can also be used to determine attenuated backscatter.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS1988

High level intelligent control of telerobotics systems

A high level robot command language is proposed for the autonomous mode of an advanced telerobotics system and a predictive display mechanism for the teleoperational model. It is believed that any such system will involve some mixture of these two modes, since, although artificial intelligence can facilitate significant autonomy, a system that can resort to teleoperation will always have the advantage. The high level command language will allow humans to give the robot instructions in a very natural manner. The robot will then analyze these instructions to infer meaning so that is can translate the task into lower level executable primitives. If, however, the robot is unable to perform the task autonomously, it will switch to the teleoperational mode. The time delay between control movement and actual robot movement has always been a problem in teleoperations. The remote operator may not actually see (via a monitor) the results of high actions for several seconds. A computer generated predictive display system is proposed whereby the operator can see a real-time model of the robot's environment and the delayed video picture on the monitor at the same time.

Mckee, James↗

NASA NTRS2000

Remotely Sensed Precipitation from the January 2000 East Coast Blizzard

Initial precipitation forecasts of the January 2000 blizzard were unable to adequately alert emergency response along the eastern seaboard. Cyclogenesis, over the Gulf of Mexico was a contributing cause of that problem. We present distributions of precipitation derived from spaceborne microwave measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) and the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) supplemented by NWS operational radar and the National lightning Detection Network (NLDN) Long-Range (LR) product. The combined NWS radar and NLDN-LR data revealed the location of precipitation between 1/23 and 1/27/2000 over the US, the Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean. The remotely sensed precipitation distributions are compared to the precipitation inferred from coincident TMI observations.

Chang, D.-E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Challenges and Lessons Learned in the Application of Autonomy to Space Operations

NASA's Space Operations Management Office (SOMO) is working toward a goal of providing an integrated infrastructure of mission and data services for space missions undertaken by NASA enterprises. A significant portion of this effort is focused on reducing the cost of these services. We are interested in the potential of autonomy to reduce operations costs. SOMO services support space missions, but are not part of the mission objectives; therefore the level of acceptable risk is very low. In fact, SOMO could be effective ly prevented from applying autonomy if customers merely perceive it as adding risk to their mission(s). We are interested in this workshop from the standpoint of understanding what can be done to realize the potential cost savings due to autonomy while maintaining acceptable risk and serving the needs of our customers. We would like to present our lessons learned so far in adopting autonomy and automation, which we think will contribute to clarifying the challenges facing the use of such technology. SOMO provides services to a diverse and ambitious set of mission customers. Many of these missions are groundbreaking missions for which communications, data, and other operations requirements sometimes cannot be clearly articulated early in the program. This motivates a need for systems that are robust in the face of unanticipated situations so that customer missions are not unreasonably constrained or impacted by "shortcomings" in SOMO services. One of SOMO's primary goals is to realize a paradigm in which SOMO acts as a service provider to organizations that fly space missions for NASA, other government agencies, and even the commercial sector. These organizations purchase SOMO services "by the pound" as customers. We have to provide systems that are not experiments themselves, but rather stable bases from which to do bold experiments. To this end, SOMO also seeks to work closely with industry to see that robust autonomy technology gets infused into products and services for the space industry and beyond. The potential for application of these technologies spans space-based communications networks (e.g. TDRSS) and ground-based assets including communication and tracking antenna systems, data networks, and control centers. There are several problems that are candidates for the application of autonomy, if it can be made reliable enough, including: antenna control, antenna scheduling, communication link scheduling and operation, navigation, attitude determination, fault detection, isolation, and reconfiguration (for spacecraft or ground assets), and mission-level planning and scheduling. Some attempts have been made to apply autonomy and automation in these areas in the past with varying degrees of success. We will present relevant case histories and the lessons inferred from them. Combining this past experience with anticipated future needs, we can clarify the challenges that must be met in order to realize the benefits of autonomy.

Forrest, David J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Process Algebra Approach for Action Recognition in the Maritime Domain

The maritime environment poses a number of challenges for autonomous operation of surface boats. Among these challenges are the highly dynamic nature of the environment, the onboard sensing and reasoning requirements for obeying the navigational rules of the road, and the need for robust day/night hazard detection and avoidance. Development of full mission level autonomy entails addressing these challenges, coupled with inference of the tactical and strategic intent of possibly adversarial vehicles in the surrounding environment. This paper introduces PACIFIC (Process Algebra Capture of Intent From Information Content), an onboard system based on formal process algebras that is capable of extracting actions/activities from sensory inputs and reasoning within a mission context to ensure proper responses. PACIFIC is part of the Behavior Engine in CARACaS (Cognitive Architecture for Robotic Agent Command and Sensing), a system that is currently running on a number of U.S. Navy unmanned surface and underwater vehicles. Results from a series of experimental studies that demonstrate the effectiveness of the system are also presented.

process algebras↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identifiability and predictability of integer- and fractional-order epidemiological models using physics-informed neural networks

Here we analyze a plurality of epidemiological models through the lens of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that enable us to identify time-dependent parameters and data-driven fractional differential operators. In particular, we consider several variations of the classical susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model by introducing more compartments and fractional-order and time-delay models. We report the results for the spread of COVID-19 in New York City, Rhode Island and Michigan states and Italy, by simultaneously inferring the unknown parameters and the unobserved dynamics. For integer-order and time-delay models, we fit the available data by identifying time-dependent parameters, which are represented by neural networks. In contrast, for fractional differential models, we fit the data by determining different time-dependent derivative orders for each compartment, which we represent by neural networks. We investigate the structural and practical identifiability of these unknown functions for different datasets, and quantify the uncertainty associated with neural networks and with control measures in forecasting the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving the Confidence in Retrievals of Vertical Distributions of Cloud Condensation Nuclei Number Concentration from ARM Supported by Aircraft In Situ Observations

Accurate quantification of the vertical distribution of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations is critical for improving our understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions. Ground-based Raman lidars operated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, together with surface CCN measurements, are used to retrieve vertically resolved CCN number concentrations (Retrieved Number concentration of CCN, RNCCN). These retrievals rely on several assumptions, including that aerosol composition is vertically homogeneous. To assess this assumption, we developed and tested a framework to infer the dominant aerosol classes/types at different altitudes. This was done by applying a k-Nearest-Neighbors (kNN) algorithm to lidar ratio and linear depolarization ratio measurements from Raman lidar. We evaluated the framework using aircraft aerosol and CCN measurements from the ARM Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign. The results show that RNCCN performance degrades as vertical aerosol complexity increases, i.e., RNCCN agrees with the aircraft CCN in vertically homogeneous conditions, but closure decreases in layered aerosol structures. To generalize beyond individual examples, we introduce a metric (heterogeneity index) that quantifies the vertical complexity by assessing the variation of inferred aerosol classes/types. Case-level statistics show a tendency for RNCCN and aircraft differences to increase with this metric. By detecting retrievals that are likely compromised by aerosol vertical heterogeneity, the proposed framework improves the interpretability and effective use of RNCCN used for long-term evaluation of models and aerosol–cloud interactions.

Tian, Jingjing↗

NASA NTRS1958

Wind-tunnel investigation of the heat transfer to the X-15 airplane

Paper describes the wind tunnel test program which has provided a picture of the general distribution of heat transfer coefficients over the X-15 airplane. The tunnel tests have emphasized the importance of the interactions of the flow fields of components and have shown that in some cases, where the local flow direction and total pressure can be reasonably closely inferred, use of experimental pressures to compute flow conditions yields very good predictions of heat transfer rate. There are still some regions of the airplane for which the heat transfer could not be adequately studied because of the size or construction of the model. Such local regions will not necessarily limit the operation of the airplane but will require evaluation in the full-scale tests. (author)

Feller, William V↗