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In general, Monte Carlo methods simulate large numbers of random trials in order to observe numerical behavior of systems described by probabilistic behavior. In radiation transport, pseudo-random number generators are used to randomly sample individual particle lives. Information about the particles are tallied.
The emergence of the Monte Carlo method as a research tool springs from work done at Los Alamos in the 1940s.Monte Carlo and the MCNP Code have been and continue to be developed at Los Alamos for many decades. From basic science in support of understanding nuclear interaction physics to global security applications, application uses of the code are extensive. Recent R&D projects and code modernization efforts make the MCNP code a great tool for nuclear nonproliferation applications. In collaboration with nuclear safeguards experts, new training has just recently been developed to help new practitioners learn how to use the code for nuclear safeguards applications.
This presentation discusses how KRUSTY was analyzed with LANL’s MCNP neutron transport code, Monte Carlo N-Particle. In the Monte Carlo method, neutrons are born in fission events and fly around the geometry having events (e.g., scatter, capture, fission, escape) according to the natural probabilities. “Natural probabilities” are given as neutron cross sections , which are measured and evaluated nuclear data. One of the goals of the benchmark project is to improve the nuclear cross sections (and the codes that use them). In this work, the response of interest is called k eff , which describes the neutron multiplication in a near critical system. Like most quantities, k eff is not measured directly; it is only inferred. In summation, MCNP results for k eff matched the measurements extremely well. The evaluated uncertainties are asymmetric and smaller than 0.00100 (e.g., + 0.00080 / – 0.00062). The largest uncertainties are due to alignment.
Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) created data as part of the MUSE (Multi-Agency Urban Search Experiment Detector and Algorithm Test Bed) project simulating illicit nuclear materials located in various buildings along a road. In the simulation, a truck containing a radiation detector drives down the road gathering listmode data (counting the and energy of incident gamma radiation). Building materials, source shielding, driving speed, truck direction, truck location on the road, source type, and source placement are all varied between runs of the data set. This data was created using deterministic neutron transport and Monte Carlo methods through a combination of SCALE, MAVRIC, MCNP, and GADRAS. As part of a follow-on NA-22 project, two Kaggle competitions were created to determine the best algorithms for finding and identifying gamma sources in this simulated urban environment. The winning algorithm was neural network-based and had a test accuracy of 76.4% accuracy for source identification. This work seeks to build upon this work and improve the results through the application of novel machine learning techniques. As a first step, the data was classified by a simple Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) To accomplish this, the data was first preprocessed into “waterfall plots.” These plots are composed of energy vs count plots that are stacked vertically to show progression in time. The horizontal axis indicating the particle energy incorporated user defined bin spacing with options for in linear-, logarithmic-, square root-, and user-spaced bins. The z or color dimension showed the number of counts corresponding the energy-time combination. This data was then used to generate more data, by generating a local estimate of the mean of the distribution for a bin and then randomly re-sampling that bin from a Poisson distribution. Once all of this data was generated, it was fed into a well-known CNN architecture, ResNet50. The output layer of this model was removed and replaced with layers corresponding to the shape desired isotope outputs. The provided training data was used to train the classifier and the remaining testing data was used to evaluate the model. Results are soon to be forthcoming.
In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers crucial insights into cosmology, but traditional Monte Carlo methods for cosmological inference are computationally prohibitive and inadequate for processing the thousands of lenses anticipated from future cosmic surveys. New tools for inference, such as SBI using Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE), address this challenge effectively. By training a machine learning model on simulated data of strong lenses, we can learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio for robust inference. Our scalable approach enables more constrained population-level inference of $w$ compared to individual lens analysis, constraining $w$ to within $1\sigma$.
For multi-scale multi-physics applications e.g., the turbulent combustion code Pele, robust and accurate dimensionality reduction is crucial to solving problems at exascale and beyond. A recently developed technique, Co-Kurtosis based Principal Component Analysis (CoK-PCA) which leverages principal vectors of co-kurtosis, is a promising alternative to traditional PCA for complex chemical systems. To improve the effectiveness of this approach, we employ Artificial Neural Networks for reconstructing thermo-chemical scalars, species production rates, and overall heat release rates corresponding to the full state space. Our focus is on bolstering confidence in this deep learning based non-linear reconstruction through Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA). UQ involves quantifying uncertainties in inputs and outputs, while SA identifies influential inputs. One of the noteworthy challenges is the computational expense inherent in both endeavors. To address this, we employ the Monte Carlo methods to effectively quantify and propagate uncertainties in our reduced spaces while managing computational demands. Our research carries profound implications not only for the realm of combustion modeling but also for a broader audience in UQ. By showcasing the reliability and robustness of CoK-PCA in dimensionality reduction and deep learning predictions, we empower researchers and decision-makers to navigate complex combustion systems with greater confidence.
Ni coarsening in the fuel electrode of solid oxide cells (SOCs) is known to be significantly faster under a humid atmosphere. In this talk, density-functional theory and kinetic Monte Carlo methods are used to explore the hypothesis that the surface diffusion of NiH on Ni may promote Ni coarsening in the SOC operated in electrolysis cell mode. Defining the surface diffusivity as the product of the fractional surface coverage and single-molecule surface diffusivity, the surface diffusivity of NiH on Ni (111) is found to be large enough under a significant overpotential to support the above hypothesis. However, as NiH could dissociate on Ni (111), more work is needed to show that NiH may promote Ni coarsening.
Ni coarsening in the fuel electrode of solid oxide cells (SOCs) is an important degradation mechanism. In this talk, density-functional theory and kinetic Monte Carlo methods are used to explore the hypothesis that the surface diffusion of NiH on Ni may promote Ni coarsening in the SOC operated in electrolysis cell mode. Using both methods and defining the diffusivity as the product of the surface coverage and single-molecule diffusivity, the diffusivity of NiH on Ni (111) is found to be sufficiently large under a significant overpotential to support the above hypothesis. Also, the time between the formation and dissociation of NiH on Ni (111) is predicted to be short at low coverages of H on Ni (111). Thus, significant progress is made toward developing a model of Ni coarsening considering both molecular and dissociated forms of NiH on Ni (111).
The overall goals of this project were to advance understanding of reactions and scattering states in light nuclei, as well as related properties of bound states, and to facilitate application of that understanding to astrophysics and cosmology. These goals were pursued mainly using quantum Monte Carlo methods to compute nuclear properties using protons and neutrons as the basic degrees of freedom.
At Sandia National Laboratories, I developed a C++ program that converts printed circuit boards(PCB) and integrated circuits(IC) design files to be compatible for computed tomography (CT) simulations through Monte Carlo methods.
In the present study, the local atomic structure of a Nb3Sn superconductor sample has been probed by X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) as a function of hydrostatic pressure (from ambient up to 26 GPa) using a diamond anvil cell set-up. The analysis of the Nb-K edge extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) data was carried out combining standard multi shell structural refinement and reverse Monte Carlo method to provide detailed in situ characterization of the pressure-induced evolution of the Nb local structure in Nb3Sn. The results highlight a complex evolution of Nb chains at the local atomic scale, with a peculiar correlated displacement of Nb–Nb and Nb–Nb–Nb configurations. Such a local effect appears related to anomalies evidenced by X-ray diffraction in other superconductors belonging to the same A15 crystallographic structure.
This is a version of the CORPSE model (Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment, Sulman et al. 2014) that uses litter decomposition parameters derived from a modified Monte Carlo simulation using the LIDET litter decomposition dataset (Long-term Intersite Decomposition Experiment Team, Harmon 2013). The code also includes the Baseline parameters, and the eight other best parameter sets identified in a modified Monte Carlo simulation. Related publication:Juice, S.M., Ridgeway, J.R., Hartman, M.D., Parton, W.J., Berardi, D.M., Sulman, B.N., Allen, K.E., & Brzostek, E.R. Reparameterizing litter decomposition using a simplified Monte Carlo method improves litter decay simulated by a microbial model and alters bioenergy soil carbon estimates. Description of files:The folder "Input Files" contains one folder for each LIDET site with data necessary to run the model. Note that "(site)" in the filenames below indicates where the LIDET site code appears (see Table 1 for site codes). Data streams include: CORPSE_full_spinup_litter.csv, CORPSE_full_spinup_rhizo.csv, CORPSE_full_spinup_bulk.csv, litterbag_init_100g_6spp.csv: initial C and N (kg C or N/m2) pool values for each soil layer, the litterbag_init_100_6spp.csv file is for the litterbag layer and is the same file for all sites. All initial C and N files have the same columns (Column - Description - Units) uFastC - Unprotected fast decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 uSlowC - Unprotected slow decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 uNecroC - Unprotected necromass carbon - kg carbon/m2 pFastC - Protected fast decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 pSlowC - Protected slow decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 pNecroC - Protected necromass carbon - kg carbon/m2 livingMicrobeC - Carbon in living microbial biomass - kg carbon/m2 uFastN - Unprotected fast decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 uSlowN - Unprotected slow decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 uNecroN - Unprotected necromass nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 pFastN - Protected fast decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 pSlowN - Protected slow decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 pNecroN - Protected necromass nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 inorganicN - Inorganic nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 CO2 - Carbon in carbon dioxide - kg carbon/m2 livingMicrobeN - Nitrogen in living microbial biomass - kg nitrogen/m2 soilT (site) DOY274start.csv: Average daily soil temperature (oC) interpolated from previously calculated monthly values used in DayCent LIDET simulations (Bonan et al., 2013). soilT (site) DOY274start.csv: Average daily soil volumetric water content (VWC) scalar interpolated from previously calculated monthly values used in DayCent LIDET simulations (Bonan et al., 2013). litter production.csv: Average daily litter production values for each site, data sources listed in Table S3 of related publication. litter (site) CN.csv: C:N ratio for each species from LIDET dataset (Table 2, Harmon 2013). (site).csv: Table indicating number of observations for each species decomposed at each site. Instructions: Save the model code ("CORPSE_LIDET.R") and "Input Files" folder in the same folder. Also make a folder for the model output (e.g., "results_Baseline") in the same folder. Set the working directory (setwd) in the model code to the folder with the files saved in step #1. Select the parameter set to use for the litter and litterbag compartments, comment out all other parameter sets. Run code. Output will be saved in the folder made in step 1. Output destination can be changed as necessary in code section called "Running the model." Table 1 LIDET sites and site codes used in model files. Site Code - Site AND - H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest BNZ - Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest BSF - Blodgett Research Forest CDR - Cedar Creek Natural History Area CPR - Central Plains Experimental Range HBR - Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest HFR - Harvard Forest JUN - Juneau KBS - Kellogg Biological Station KNZ - Konza Prairie Research Natural Area NWT - Niwot Ridge/Green Lakes Valley OLY - Olympic National Park OLY Conifer forest SEV - Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge SMR - Santa Margarita Ecological Reserve UFL - University of Florida VCR - Virginia Coast Reserve Table 2 LIDET species and species codes used in model files (6 common species). Species - Species Code Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) - ACSA Drypetes (Drypetes glauca) - DRGL Red pine (Pinus resinosa) - PIRE Chestnut oak (Quercus prinus) - QUPR Western redcedar (Thuja plicata) - THPL Wheat (Triticum aestivum) - TRAE References:Bonan, G. B., Hartman, M. D., Parton, W. J., & Wieder, W. R. (2013). Evaluating litter decomposition in earth system models with long-term litterbag experiments: an example using the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). Global Change Biology, 19(3), 957-974. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12031 Harmon, M. (2013). LTER Intersite Fine Litter Decomposition Experiment (LIDET), 1990 to 2002. Long-Term Ecological Research. Forest Science Data Bank, Corvallis, OR. [Data set]. Accessed http://andlter.forestry.oregonstate.edu/data/abstract.aspx?dbcode=TD023. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/f35f56bea52d78b6a1ecf1952b4889c5. Sulman, B. N., Phillips, R. P., Oishi, A. C., Shevliakova, E., & Pacala, S. W. (2014). Microbe-driven turnover offsets mineral-mediated storage of soil carbon under elevated CO2. Nature Climate Change, 4, 1099 - 1102. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2436
The dataset consists of simulations of calibrated reconstructed hits produced by a positron passing through the HGCAL test beam prototype. For the simulations, Monte Carlo method is used to produce the positrons with energy ranging from 10 to 350 GeV. The dataset contains the coordinates of the calibrated reconstructed hits in the prototype along with the calibrated energy in units of MIP. The HDF5 files can be extracted from the gzip files.
The dataset consists of simulations of calibrated reconstructed hits produced by a pion passing through the HGCAL test beam prototype. For the simulations, Monte Carlo method is used to produce the pions with energy ranging from 10 to as high as 500 GeV. The dataset contains the coordinates of the calibrated reconstructed hits in the prototype along with the calibrated energy in units of MIP. The HDF5 files can be extracted from the gzip files.
Engineering a robust hydraulic connection between wells is one of the most difficult aspects of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Designing and constructing such hydraulic connections requires and understanding of the in situ state of stress and the heterogeneities and discontinuities that naturally exist and may control the stimulation. Even with comprehensive stress and formation characterization programs substantial uncertainty remains in these key parameters. This is especially the case in high-temperature EGS environments where drilling conditions are often difficult and a far fewer logging and testing options are available. This paper presents a new approach for explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the state of stress using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This approach produces a probability distribution for the stress tensor, including a general 3D orientation, that reflects the uncertainties in all the observations or indicators used to constrain the stress state. This method is demonstrated on the characterization data for the EGS Collab Experiment 2 site. The output of the analysis is used to guide the design of the planned stimulations. In the case of research projects like EGS Collab, explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the stress state allow for more rigorous hypothesis testing by allowing conclusions drawn from the experiments to be interpreted in the context of the uncertain knowledge about conditions in the test bed.
Stochastic programming provides a rigorous mathematical framework for making decisions under uncertainty in a risk-aware manner. Two-stage stochastic programming is, perhaps, the simplest form of this framework. Here the first-stage variables represent decisions that must be made "here and now" in the face of uncertainty, while the second-stage variables are decisions made after uncertain events. However, the broad adoption of stochastic programming has been hindered by computational challenges caused by the two-stage stochastic programming formulation which requires solving an ensemble of optimization problems. Using quantum amplitude estimation (QAE), quantum computers have shown the theoretic ability to compute expectations with Monte-Carlo methods with quadratically fewer samples than classical methods. In this work, we present a quantum algorithm for computing the expectation term using QAE for given first-stage decisions. Further, we detail methods of computing gradient information from the quantum calculation enabling the application of classical gradient-based optimization techniques. The result is a classical-quantum hybrid method of solving two-stage stochastic programs. These techniques are demonstrated with computational experiments based an engineering optimization problem.
We report significant advances in numerical techniques have enabled recent breakthroughs in the study of various properties of the Hubbard model - a seemingly simple, yet complex model of correlated electrons that has been a focus of study for more than half a century. In particular, it captures the essence of strong correlations, and is believed to possess various emergent, low energy states and collective excitations characteristic of cuprate high-temperature superconducting materials. While a thorough review of all activity is not possible here, we have focused the discussion on our recent work using unbiased, numerically exact, “brute force”, finite temperature quantum Monte Carlo methods. Our various studies reveal a rich variety of quantum liquid crystal phases, and complementary transport properties, which answer some questions, but certainly raise others concerning “strange metal” behavior and the ultimate fate of quasiparticles in the Hubbard model.
The time-resolving Magnetic Recoil Spectrometer (MRSt) for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) has been identified by the US National Diagnostic Working Group as one of the transformational diagnostics that will reshape the way inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions are diagnosed. The MRSt will measure the time-resolved neutron spectrum of an implosion, from which the time-resolved ion temperature, areal density, and yield will be inferred. Top-level physics requirements for the MRSt were determined based on simulations of numerous ICF implosions with varying degrees of alpha heating, P2 asymmetry, and mix. Synthetic MRSt data were subsequently generated for different configurations using Monte–Carlo methods to determine its performance in relation to the requirements. The system was found to meet most requirements at current neutron yields at the NIF. This work was supported by the DOE and LLNL.