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536 records · Page 30

A Preliminary ZEUS Lightning Location Error Analysis Using a Modified Retrieval Theory

The ZEUS long-range VLF arrival time difference lightning detection network now covers both Europe and Africa, and there are plans for further expansion into the western hemisphere. In order to fully optimize and assess ZEUS lightning location retrieval errors and to determine the best placement of future receivers expected to be added to the network, a software package is being developed jointly between the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the University of Nevada Las Vegas (UNLV). The software package, called the ZEUS Error Analysis for Lightning (ZEAL), will be used to obtain global scale lightning location retrieval error maps using both a Monte Carlo approach and chi-squared curvature matrix theory. At the core of ZEAL will be an implementation of an Iterative Oblate (IO) lightning location retrieval method recently developed at MSFC. The IO method will be appropriately modified to account for variable wave propagation speed, and the new retrieval results will be compared with the current ZEUS retrieval algorithm to assess potential improvements. In this preliminary ZEAL work effort, we defined 5000 source locations evenly distributed across the Earth. We then used the existing (as well as potential future ZEUS sites) to simulate arrival time data between source and ZEUS site. A total of 100 sources were considered at each of the 5000 locations, and timing errors were selected from a normal distribution having a mean of 0 seconds and a standard deviation of 20 microseconds. This simulated "noisy" dataset was analyzed using the IO algorithm to estimate source locations. The exact locations were compared with the retrieved locations, and the results are summarized via several color-coded "error maps."

Elander, Valjean↗

Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a Monte Carlo wrapper (MATLAB) used to integrate the components of the module. Results: The probability of generating an AIS1 soft tissue neck injury from the extension/flexion motion induced by a low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax was fitted with a lognormal PDF with mean 0.26409, standard deviation 0.11353, standard error of mean 0.00114, and 95% confidence interval [0.26186, 0.26631]. Combining the probability of an AIS1 injury with the probability of IES occurrence was fitted with a Johnson SI PDF with mean 0.02772, standard deviation 0.02012, standard error of mean 0.00020, and 95% confidence interval [0.02733, 0.02812]. The input factor sensitivity analysis in descending order was IES incidence rate, ITF regression coefficient 1, impactor initial velocity, ITF regression coefficient 2, and all others (equipment mass, crew 1 body mass, crew 2 body mass) insignificant. Verification and Validation (V&V): The IMM V&V, based upon NASA STD 7009, was implemented which included an assessment of the data sets used to build CSIM. The documentation maintained includes source code comments and a technical report. The software code and documentation is under Subversion configuration management. Kinematic validation was performed by comparing the biomechanical model output to established corridors.

Brooker, John E.↗

Low altitude plume impingement handbook

Plume Impingement modeling is required whenever an object immersed in a rocket exhaust plume must survive or remain undamaged within specified limits, due to thermal and pressure environments induced by the plume. At high altitudes inviscid plume models, Monte Carlo techniques along with the Plume Impingement Program can be used to predict reasonably accurate environments since there are usually no strong flowfield/body interactions or atmospheric effects. However, at low altitudes there is plume-atmospheric mixing and potential large flowfield perturbations due to plume-structure interaction. If the impinged surface is large relative to the flowfield and the flowfield is supersonic, the shock near the surface can stand off the surface several exit radii. This results in an effective total pressure that is higher than that which exists in the free plume at the surface. Additionally, in two phase plumes, there can be strong particle-gas interaction in the flowfield immediately ahead of the surface. To date there have been three levels of sophistication that have been used for low altitude plume induced environment predictions. Level 1 calculations rely on empirical characterizations of the flowfield and relatively simple impingement modeling. An example of this technique is described by Piesik. A Level 2 approach consists of characterizing the viscous plume using the SPF/2 code or RAMP2/LAMP and using the Plume Impingement Program to predict the environments. A Level 3 analysis would consist of using a Navier-Stokes code such as the FDNS code to model the flowfield and structure during a single calculation. To date, Level 1 and Level 2 type analyses have been primarily used to perform environment calculations. The recent advances in CFD modeling and computer resources allow Level 2 type analysis to be used for final design studies. Following some background on low altitude impingement, Level 1, 2, and 3 type analysis will be described.

Smith, Sheldon D.↗

EUPDF: Eulerian Monte Carlo Probability Density Function Solver for Applications With Parallel Computing, Unstructured Grids, and Sprays

The success of any solution methodology used in the study of gas-turbine combustor flows depends a great deal on how well it can model the various complex and rate controlling processes associated with the spray's turbulent transport, mixing, chemical kinetics, evaporation, and spreading rates, as well as convective and radiative heat transfer and other phenomena. The phenomena to be modeled, which are controlled by these processes, often strongly interact with each other at different times and locations. In particular, turbulence plays an important role in determining the rates of mass and heat transfer, chemical reactions, and evaporation in many practical combustion devices. The influence of turbulence in a diffusion flame manifests itself in several forms, ranging from the so-called wrinkled, or stretched, flamelets regime to the distributed combustion regime, depending upon how turbulence interacts with various flame scales. Conventional turbulence models have difficulty treating highly nonlinear reaction rates. A solution procedure based on the composition joint probability density function (PDF) approach holds the promise of modeling various important combustion phenomena relevant to practical combustion devices (such as extinction, blowoff limits, and emissions predictions) because it can account for nonlinear chemical reaction rates without making approximations. In an attempt to advance the state-of-the-art in multidimensional numerical methods, we at the NASA Lewis Research Center extended our previous work on the PDF method to unstructured grids, parallel computing, and sprays. EUPDF, which was developed by M.S. Raju of Nyma, Inc., was designed to be massively parallel and could easily be coupled with any existing gas-phase and/or spray solvers. EUPDF can use an unstructured mesh with mixed triangular, quadrilateral, and/or tetrahedral elements. The application of the PDF method showed favorable results when applied to several supersonic-diffusion flames and spray flames. The EUPDF source code will be available with the National Combustion Code (NCC) as a complete package.

Raju, M. S.↗

Monte Carlo Simulation of Nanoparticle Encapsulation in Flames

Two critical challenges facing the application of flames for synthesis of nanopowder materials are: (1) overcoming formation of agglomerates and (2) ensuring that the highly reactive nanopowders that are synthesized in flames can be produced in such a manner that their purity is maintained during subsequent processing. Agglomerates are produced in flames because particle formation occurs in a high temperature and high number density environment. They are undesirable in most advanced applications of powders. For example, agglomerates have a deleterious effect on compaction density, leading to voids when nanopowders are consolidated. Efforts to avoid agglomeration in flames without substantially reducing particle number density and, consequently, production rate, have had limited success. Powder purity must also be maintained during subsequent handling of nanopowders and this poses a significant challenge for any synthesis route because nanopowders, particularly metals and non-oxide ceramic powders, are inherently reactive. Impurities acquired during handling of nanopowders have slowed the advancement of the nanostructured materials industry. One promising approach that has been proposed to address these problems is nano-encapsulation. In this approach, the core particles are encapsulated in a removable material while they are within the flame but before excessive agglomeration has occurred. Condensation can be very rapid so that core particles are trapped within the condensed material and agglomeration is limited. Nano-encapsulation also addresses the handling concerns for post-synthesis processing. Results have shown that when nano-encapsulated powders are exposed to atmosphere the core particles are protected from oxidation and/or hydrolysis. Thus, handling of the powders does not require extreme care. If, for example, at the time of consolidation the encapsulation material is removed by vacuum annealing, the resulting powder remains unagglomerated and free of impurities. In this work, we described a novel aerosol model that has been developed to simulate particle encapsulation in flames. The model will ultimately be coupled to a one-dimensional spherical flame code and compared to results from microgravity flame experiments.

Sun, Z.↗

A Test of Thick-Target Nonuniform Ionization as an Explanation for Breaks in Solar Flare Hard X-Ray Spectra

Solar nonthermal hard X-ray (HXR) flare spectra often cannot be fitted by a single power law, but rather require a downward break in the photon spectrum. A possible explanation for this spectral break is nonuniform ionization in the emission region. We have developed a computer code to calculate the photon spectrum from electrons with a power-law distribution injected into a thick-target in which the ionization decreases linearly from 100% to zero. We use the bremsstrahlung cross-section from Haug (1997), which closely approximates the full relativistic Bethe-Heitler cross-section, and compare photon spectra computed from this model with those obtained by Kontar, Brown and McArthur (2002), who used a step-function ionization model and the Kramers approximation to the cross-section. We find that for HXR spectra from a target with nonuniform ionization, the difference (Delta-gamma) between the power-law indexes above and below the break has an upper limit between approx.0.2 and 0.7 that depends on the power-law index delta of the injected electron distribution. A broken power-law spectrum with a. higher value of Delta-gamma cannot result from nonuniform ionization alone. The model is applied to spectra obtained around the peak times of 20 flares observed by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI from 2002 to 2004 to determine whether thick-target nonuniform ionization can explain the measured spectral breaks. A Monte Carlo method is used to determine the uncertainties of the best-fit parameters, especially on Delta-gamma. We find that 15 of the 20 flare spectra require a downward spectral break and that at least 6 of these could not be explained by nonuniform ionization alone because they had values of Delta-gamma with less than a 2.5% probability of being consistent with the computed upper limits from the model. The remaining 9 flare spectra, based on this criterion, are consistent with the nonuniform ionization model.

Holman, gordon↗

A Multi-Disciplinary Analysis Framework for the Design of Small Launch Vehicles

Between the years of 1995 and 2014 the number of small satellites (1-500 kg) went up from 20 to 180. [1] Out of the 180 launched in 2014 66% were Nano satellites (1-10 kg). [1] With this trend of smaller satellites, one would expect a rise in number of small launch vehicles (SLVs are defined by capability to carry 1-100 kg to orbit), but this has not happened: [3] only 8% of all small satellites are launched on SLVs and the others become secondary payloads on regular launch vehicles. [1] This results in small satellites being placed into either suboptimal orbits or waiting for launch schedules to align with bigger launches, resulting in long waiting times. Dedicated SLVs could improve the responsiveness of small satellite launches, but SLV design is complicated by the large architecture space needed to be explored in order to find efficient and affordable designs. The SLV architecture trade space contains many discrete options, e.g. solid vs. liquid fuels, air launch vs. ground launch, number of stages, etc. [2][3] Performing detailed analysis for all the options at once would be prohibitive. Thus, a sizing environment/framework that is capable of providing necessary information for conceptual-level trade studies and can rapidly explore the vast SLV architecture space is necessary. The framework, illustrated in Figure 1, consists of four disciplines central to the sizing and synthesis of launch vehicles: propulsion, aerodynamics, structures, and trajectory. For the aerodynamics and trajectory disciplines, Missile DATCOM and POST2 are used, respectively. The propulsion and structures disciplines are represented in the framework with tools developed at ASDL Georgia Tech. For propulsion, the Solid Motor Analysis Code (SMAC) is a physics-based conceptual design tool for solid rocket motors. SMAC is capable of geometric burn simulation, ballistic analysis, and prediction of thrust performance. [4] For structures, Launch Vehicle Structural Analysis (LVSA) tool is a physics-based tool that focuses on structural dynamic analysis with sizing capability. These tools are integrated into the framework illustrated in Figure 1 with the corresponding connections described in Table 1. The process flow is as follows: first, SMAC sizes insulation and calculates maximum operating pressures for each vehicle stage. The MEOP and insulation thickness values from SMAC are fed to LVSA which then utilizes this information to size the motor casing. This creates a feedback loop between LVSA and SMAC that converges on the radius available for fuel, casing, and insulation thickness. Once the stage sizing is converged on SMAC creates an engine deck that is passed to POST2. Next, the data from SMAC and LVSA goes into Missile DATCOM which generates an aerodynamics database for POST2. Finally, POST2 performs a targeting optimization while maximizing the payload mass to orbit. Within the framework, POST2 is automated in order to be robust to a wide variety of possible designs by performing a Monte Carlo simulation over the initialization vector of the POST2 optimization variables. To demonstrate the capability of this framework, a sample problem of exploring the design space of an SLV capable of placing satellites into a low Earth orbit (inclination=47 deg, 196.5 by 211.3 nm) is used. This sample problem is a ground-launched SLV consisting of four in-line SRM stages. The multidisciplinary design analysis (MDA) environment is utilized to explore a design space consisting of 22 continuous and 12 discrete variables, shown by Table 1 by blocks 1,2,3. Running a full factorial design of experiments (DOE) would have been prohibitively expensive even with this reduced design space, thus a space filling design with 3,502 and then additional expansion of 2,602 cases was used. The first DOE consisted of 3,502 cases, and all of the variables were varied. These input variables are listed in blocks 1, 2, and 3 in Table 1. Most of the variables are propulsion related with stage lengths determining the delta-V split of the SLV. The expansion consisted of 2,602 cases, and the continuous variables were set to be equal to the most promising designs from the sizing of first DOE. For each set of continuous variables, the discrete variables (grain type, star points, and propellant) were to varied. The results of the DOE can be seen in Figure 2; each of the points in this plot represents a closed launch vehicle that reaches the targeted orbit. For each of the cases, there is information on flown trajectory, structural, and propulsion properties of the SLV. For example, Figure 3 shows changes in altitude and velocity with time for a particular case. The right side of Figure 3 clearly shows the coasting (slow decrease) and burning phases (sharp increase) of the SLV mission. LV mass is positively correlated with the optimized payload mass to orbit because heavier LVs carry more fuel and thus have more stored chemical energy. Furthermore, for any given payload mass to orbit, the most efficient design would result in the smallest LV. The results as visualized in Figure 2 shows this tradeoff, and the Pareto frontier of the efficient designs can be seen along the dotted line. Figure 2 can be divided into regions with the lowest mass vehicles corresponding to the minimum bound on radius, and the highest mass vehicles corresponding to the maximum bound on radius. Within a mass region, the discrete variables, such as propellant type and propellant grain arrangement, have the most effect on payload mass. This paper presents an MDA framework that can perform an automated physics-based sizing of SLV designs and a corresponding methodology to utilize the MDA to explore the design space of SLVs. The proposed methodology was applied to a perform a design space exploration for a four stage SLV. The outputs show the expected pareto frontier forming and provide detailed information about the SLV performance and staging. Using the produced data, it will be possible to select a set of pareto optimal designs that can then be further explored in subsequent design cycles. This demonstration shows that automated design space exploration should be used in the early phase design of future SLV concepts.

Nikita S Birbasov↗

Polarization from scattering in blobs

We describe a Monte Carlo method for calculating polarization due to scattering in various geometries. We apply the method in this paper to the case of scattering in a spherical cloud illuminated by parallel rays. The polarization is largest in small optical depth blobs, where single scattering dominates. The polarization decreases as optical depth increases until a limit is reached where scattering occurs on the surface, and increasing optical depth has little effect on the results. For a given optical depth, decreasing the albedo leads to an increase of the degree of polarization of the scattered light because single scattering increases relative to multiple scattering. As the optical depth of the blob increases, the scattered flux becomes increasingly backward throwing. In the high albedo blobs, the maximum polarization becomes skewed towards the illuminated hemisphere at high optical depths. We discuss the applications to polarization in supergiants and R CrB stars, and scattering in a clumpy interstellar medium.

Code, Arthur D.↗

Calculated X-ray Intensities Using Monte Carlo Algorithms: A Comparison to Experimental EPMA Data

Monte Carlo (MC) modeling has been used extensively to simulate electron scattering and x-ray emission from complex geometries. Here are presented comparisons between MC results and experimental electron-probe microanalysis (EPMA) measurements as well as phi(rhoz) correction algorithms. Experimental EPMA measurements made on NIST SRM 481 (AgAu) and 482 (CuAu) alloys, at a range of accelerating potential and instrument take-off angles, represent a formal microanalysis data set that has been widely used to develop phi(rhoz) correction algorithms. X-ray intensity data produced by MC simulations represents an independent test of both experimental and phi(rhoz) correction algorithms. The alpha-factor method has previously been used to evaluate systematic errors in the analysis of semiconductor and silicate minerals, and is used here to compare the accuracy of experimental and MC-calculated x-ray data. X-ray intensities calculated by MC are used to generate a-factors using the certificated compositions in the CuAu binary relative to pure Cu and Au standards. MC simulations are obtained using the NIST, WinCasino, and WinXray algorithms; derived x-ray intensities have a built-in atomic number correction, and are further corrected for absorption and characteristic fluorescence using the PAP phi(rhoz) correction algorithm. The Penelope code additionally simulates both characteristic and continuum x-ray fluorescence and thus requires no further correction for use in calculating alpha-factors.

Carpenter, P. K.↗

Benchmarking Bayesian Optimization Frameworks and Acquisition Strategies for Materials Discovery and Autonomous Laboratories

Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate materials discovery by guiding expensive experiments toward the most promising processing conditions. We systematically compare five BO surrogate and framework combinations (Gaussian processes in Ax, Gaussian processes and Monte-Carlo neural networks in BayBE, random forests in Lolopy, and tree-structured Parzen (TPE) estimators in Hyperopt) on three benchmarks that mimic common materials design tasks (a discrete solid-electrolyte composition space, a hybrid discrete/continuous laminate-composite design problem solved with micromechanics modeling, and the continuous Ishigami analytic function which is a standard optimization benchmark). Each BO surrogate is paired with posterior mean, probability of improvement, and expected improvement acquisition functions and run for 100 trials from randomized initial samples with uniform random search providing a control. Across five random seeds per setting, BayBE’s Gaussian-process surrogate with expected improvement consistently reached ≥95 % of the known optimum in the fewest evaluations, while Lolopy’s random forest matched or exceeded GP performance on purely categorical or mixed spaces at a higher computational cost. Posterior mean alone often stagnated at local optima, underscoring the need for exploration, whereas probability and expected improvement balanced exploration and exploitation leading to better optimization in fewer trials. Execution times ranged from milliseconds for TPE to minutes for neural-network and random-forest surrogates. These results establish baseline expectations for BO in automated materials laboratories and highlight expected improvement with Gaussian processes as a reliable first choice, with random forests offering a strong alternative when categorical variables dominate. The benchmark suite and code are released to facilitate future surrogate, acquisition, and constraint-handling research in data-driven materials optimization.

Bayesian optimization↗

A ROS-based Simulator for Testing the Enhanced Autonomous Navigation of the Mars 2020 Rover

In order to achieve the ambitious objectives of the Mars 2020 (M2020) mission, in particular the ability to autonomously traverse more challenging terrains more efficiently, new surface mobility software was developed for Enhanced Navigation (ENav). That decision was made early in the project, before most of the new surface flight software (FSW) existed, which created a need for a separate framework where the new navigation algorithms could be quickly prototyped and tested, before more realistic FSW-based testbeds became available. The JPL robotics team chose the Robot Operating System [1] (ROS) as the environment in which to test the new ENav algorithms. This made it possible to write the algorithms in the C language required by the FSW, so they could be directly ported over to the flight module later on, while leveraging all the C++ libraries and tools provided by ROS for simulation and testing. The ENav algorithms were developed as a separate C library, and stubs were used to replace any FSW-specific code, such as Event Reporting (EVRs) and data products (DPs). A ROS simulator was developed to generate a rich set of varied 3D terrains representative of the candidate Mars landing sites and simulate the physics of the rover motion, the point cloud perceived by the rover’s stereo vision system, and the new thinking-while-driving (TWD) navigation logic which directs the rover to drive autonomously to user-specified waypoints. To simulate the rover motion and perception, a ROS node was developed that uses a software library called HyperDrive Sim (HDSim), which is a wrapper for the Rover Sequencing and Visualization Program [2] (RSVP). That library provides roverterrain settling, realistic slip modelling, and camera rendering capability based on the rover’s NavCam machine vision models. To simulate the navigation logic, a ROS node was created that initializes and runs the ENav algorithms in a way that mimics the FSW execution, while also providing the capability to load and replay data products, including re-running the recorded inputs through the ENav algorithms for testing. An engineering Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed to visualize various elements, such as the rover pose during the drive, the simulated and perceived terrain, the selected local and global paths to the goal, the evaluated candidate paths and the reasons why they were rejected, the keep-in and keep-out zones (KIOZs), etc. Finally, an advanced Monte Carlo (MC) framework that can run many simulations in parallel on the Cloud and automatically generate reports that capture the key ENav performance metrics was developed to evaluate the system in a statisticallymeaningful way. This paper provides an overview of the ROSbased simulator used for testing the M2020 ENav algorithms.

Toupet, Olivier↗

A Dose of Reality: Radiation Analysis for Realistic Human Spacecraft

INTRODUCTION As with most computational analyses, a tradeoff exists between problem complexity, resource availability and response accuracy when modeling radiation transport from the source to a detector. The largest amount of analyst time for setting up an analysis is often spent ensuring that any simplifications made have minimal impact on the results. The vehicle shield geometry of interest is typically simplified from the original CAD design in order to reduce computation time, but this simplification requires the analyst to "re-draw" the geometry with a limited set of volumes in order to accommodate a specific radiation transport software package. The resulting low-fidelity geometry model cannot be shared with or compared to other radiation transport software packages, and the process can be error prone with increased model complexity. The work presented here demonstrates the use of the DAGMC (Direct Accelerated Geometry for Monte Carlo) Toolkit from the University of Wisconsin, to model the impacts of several space radiation sources on a CAD drawing of the US Lab module. METHODS The DAGMC toolkit workflow begins with the export of an existing CAD geometry from the native CAD to the ACIS format. The ACIS format file is then cleaned using SpaceClaim to remove small holes and component overlaps. Metadata is then assigned to the cleaned geometry file using CUBIT/Trelis from csimsoft (Registered Trademark). The DAGMC plugin script removes duplicate shared surfaces, facets the geometry to a specified tolerance, and ensures that the faceted geometry is water tight. This step also writes the material and scoring information to a standard input file format that the analyst can alter as desired prior to running the radiation transport program. The scoring results can be transformed, via python script, into a 3D format that is viewable in a standard graphics program. RESULTS The CAD model of the US Lab module of the International Space Station, inclusive of all the racks and components, was simplified to remove holes and volume overlaps. Problematic features within the drawing were also removed or repaired to prevent runtime issues. The cleaned drawing was then run through the DAGMC workflow to prepare for analysis. Pilot tests modeling transport of 1GeV proton and 800MeV/A oxygen sources show that reasonable results are converged upon in an acceptable amount of overall computation time from drawing preparation to data analysis. The FLUKA radiation transport code will next be used to model both a GCR and a trapped radiation source. These results will then be compared with measurements that have been made by the radiation instrumentation deployed inside the US Lab module. DISCUSSION Early analyses have indicated that the DAGMC workflow is a promising toolkit for running vehicle geometries of interest to NASA through multiple radiation transport codes. In addition, recent work has shown that a realistic human phantom, provided via a subcontract with the University of Florida, can be placed inside any vehicle geometry for a combinatorial analysis. This added functionality gives the user the ability to score various parameters at the organ level, and the results can then be used as input for cancer risk models.

Barzilla, J. E.↗

A Deterministic Electron, Photon, Proton and Heavy Ion Radiation Transport Suite for the Study of the Jovian System

A deterministic suite of radiation transport codes, developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), which describe the transport of electrons, photons, protons, and heavy ions in condensed media is used to simulate exposures from spectral distributions typical of electrons, protons and carbon-oxygen-sulfur (C-O-S) trapped heavy ions in the Jovian radiation environment. The particle transport suite consists of a coupled electron and photon deterministic transport algorithm (CEPTRN) and a coupled light particle and heavy ion deterministic transport algorithm (HZETRN). The primary purpose for the development of the transport suite is to provide a means for the spacecraft design community to rapidly perform numerous repetitive calculations essential for electron, proton and heavy ion radiation exposure assessments in complex space structures. In this paper, the radiation environment of the Galilean satellite Europa is used as a representative boundary condition to show the capabilities of the transport suite. While the transport suite can directly access the output electron spectra of the Jovian environment as generated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Galileo Interim Radiation Electron (GIRE) model of 2003; for the sake of relevance to the upcoming Europa Jupiter System Mission (EJSM), the 105 days at Europa mission fluence energy spectra provided by JPL is used to produce the corresponding dose-depth curve in silicon behind an aluminum shield of 100 mils ( 0.7 g/sq cm). The transport suite can also accept ray-traced thickness files from a computer-aided design (CAD) package and calculate the total ionizing dose (TID) at a specific target point. In that regard, using a low-fidelity CAD model of the Galileo probe, the transport suite was verified by comparing with Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for orbits JOI--J35 of the Galileo extended mission (1996-2001). For the upcoming EJSM mission with a potential launch date of 2020, the transport suite is used to compute the traditional aluminum-silicon dose-depth calculation as a standard shield-target combination output, as well as the shielding response of high charge (Z) shields such as tantalum (Ta). Finally, a shield optimization algorithm is used to guide the instrument designer with the choice of graded-Z shield analysis.

Norman, Ryan B.↗

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗