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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Network-Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods

Currently ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper/poster explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Compaction in optical fibres and fibre Bragg gratings under nuclear reactor high neutron and gamma fluence

In the framework of the development by CEA and SCK.CEN of a Fabry Perot Sensor (FPS) able to measure dimensional changes in Material Testing Reactor (MTR), the first goal of the SAKE 1 (Smirnof extention - Additional Key-tests on Elongation of glass fibres) irradiation was to measure the linear compaction of single mode fibres under high fast neutron fluence. Indeed, the compaction of the fibre which forms one side of the Fabry Perot cavity, may in particular cause a noticeable measurement error. An accurate quantification of this effect is then required to predict the radiation-induced drift and optimize the sensor design. To achieve this, an innovative approach was used. Approximately seventy uncoated fibre tips (length: 30 to 50 mm) have been prepared from several different fibre samples and were installed in the SCK.CEN BR2 reactor (Mol Belgium). After 22 days of irradiation a total fast (E > 1 MeV) fluence of 3 to 5x10{sup 19} n{sub fast}/cm{sup 2}, depending on the sample location, was accumulated. The temperature during irradiation was 291 deg. C, which is not far from the condition of the intended FPS use. A precise measurement of each fibre tip length was made before the irradiation and compared to the post irradiation measurement highlighting a decrease of the fibres' length corresponding to about 0.25% of linear compaction. The amplitude of the changes is independent of the capsule, which could mean that the compaction effect saturates even at the lowest considered fluence. In the prospect of performing distributed temperature measurement in MTR, several fibre Bragg gratings written using a femtosecond laser have been also irradiated. All the gratings were written in radiation hardened fibres, and underwent an additional treatment with a procedure enhancing their resistance to ionizing radiations. A special mounting made it possible to test the reflection and the transmission of the gratings on fibre samples cut down to 30 to 50 mm. The comparison of measurements made before and after the irradiation, at the same temperature, allowed us to measure the loss in reflectivity as well as the Bragg wavelength drift. The results are quite promising for some of the investigated gratings. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Consistent Inversion for Stochastic Input-to-Output Maps

Data-consistent inversion is a recently developed measure-theoretic framework for solving a stochastic inverse problem involving models of physical systems. The goal is to construct a probability measure on model inputs (i.e., parameters of interest) whose associated push-forward measure matches (i.e., is consistent with) a probability measure on the observable outputs of the model (i.e., quantities of interest). Previous implementations required the map from parameters of interest to quantities of interest to be deterministic. This work generalizes this framework for maps that are stochastic, i.e., contain uncertainties and variation not explainable by variations in uncertain parameters of interest. Generalizations of previous theorems of existence, uniqueness, and stability of the data-consistent solution are provided while new theoretical results address the stability of marginals on parameters of interest. A notable aspect of the algorithmic generalization is the ability to query the solution to generate independent identically distributed samples of the parameters of interest without requiring knowledge of the so-called stochastic parameters. This work therefore extends the applicability of the data-consistent inversion framework to a much wider class of problems. This includes those based on purely experimental and field data where only a subset of conditions are either controllable or can be documented between experiments while the underlying physics, measurement errors, and any additional covariates are either uncertain or not accounted for by the researcher. Finally, numerical examples demonstrate application of this approach to systems with stochastic sources of uncertainties embedded within the modeling of a system and a numerical diagnostic is summarized that is useful for determining if a key assumption is verified among competing choices of stochastic maps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Optimizing disk registration algorithms for nanobeam electron diffraction strain mapping

Scanning nanobeam electron diffraction strain mapping is a technique by which the positions of diffracted disks sampled at the nanoscale over a crystalline sample can be used to reconstruct a strain map over a large area. However, it is important that the disk positions are measured accurately, as their positions relative to a reference are directly used to calculate strain. Here in this study, we compare several correlation methods using both simulated and experimental data in order to directly probe susceptibility to measurement error due to non-uniform diffracted disk illumination structure. We found that prefiltering the diffraction patterns with a Sobel filter before performing cross correlation or performing a square-root magnitude weighted phase correlation returned the best results when inner disk structure was present. Lastly, we have tested these methods both on simulated datasets, and experimental data from unstrained silicon as well as a twin grain boundary in 304 stainless steel.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2007

Portable Microleak-Detection System

The figure schematically depicts a portable microleak-detection system that has been built especially for use in testing hydrogen tanks made of polymer-matrix composite materials. (As used here, microleak signifies a leak that is too small to be detectable by the simple soap-bubble technique.) The system can also be used to test for microleaks in tanks that are made of other materials and that contain gases other than hydrogen. Results of calibration tests have shown that measurement errors are less than 10 percent for leak rates ranging from 0.3 to 200 cm3/min. Like some other microleak-detection systems, this system includes a vacuum pump and associated plumbing for sampling the leaking gas, and a mass spectrometer for analyzing the molecular constituents of the gas. The system includes a flexible vacuum chamber that can be attached to the outer surface of a tank or other object of interest that is to be tested for leakage (hereafter denoted, simply, the test object). The gas used in a test can be the gas or vapor (e.g., hydrogen in the original application) to be contained by the test object. Alternatively, following common practice in leak testing, helium can be used as a test gas. In either case, the mass spectrometer can be used to verify that the gas measured by the system is the test gas rather than a different gas and, hence, that the leak is indeed from the test object.

Rivers, H. Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2019

Further Development Of Aperture: A Precise Extremely Large Reflective Telescope Using Re-Configurable Elements: NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) - Phase II

One of the pressing needs for space ultraviolet-visible astronomy is a design to allow larger mirrors than the James Webb Space Telescope primary. The diameter of the rocket fairing limits the mirror diameter such that all future missions calling for mirrors up to 16 meters in diameter or larger will require a mirror that is deployed post-launch. In response to the deployment requirement, we address the issues of this concept called "A Precise Extremely Large Reflective Telescope Using Reconfigurable Elements (APERTURE) with both hardware experiments and software simulations... We designed and built several fixtures with O-rings to hold a membrane. We established a coating process to make a membrane that was coated on one side with Cr and the other side with Cr-Terfenol-D-NiCo. The Terfenol-D (T-D hereafter) is the MSM (Magnetic Smart Memory) we use. We bought and established a procedure for measuring a deformation over time and purchased a Shack Hartmann system from Imagine Optic (https://www.imagine-optic.com). The first substrate we used was DuPont (TM) Kapton® polyimide film. Due to material creep, we found the stability over a 48-hour period with a Kapton substrate was not as good as desired (greater than 1 micron). We then switched to CP1 Polyimide. We found the CP1 much more stable to creep, being stable from about 3 hours to 48 hours to within a measurement error to below approximately 0.1 micron. We produced a 13 micron maximum deviation on a 50-millimeter-diameter piece of CP1 (25 microns thick). The T-D coating was about 2 microns, and the other layers, about 10 nanometers. The magnetic field at the base was about 0.1 teslas. We can make the T-D film at least 5 times thicker and the magnetic field at least 5 times stronger, and hence make deformations as much as 25 times larger. We have a formed a collaboration produced at the NIAC (NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts) mid-term review with Dr. Ron Shiri of Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) to explore making controlled deviations on lambda/14-lambda/20 scales which are required to bring a surface to the diffraction limit. We carried out only preliminary work on Si using a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM), which produced deviations on the 1 micron level. We are still working on a program to bring to GSFC a flat enough (radius of curvature greater than 10 microns) -coated a Si piece with Cr, T-D, NiCo. Then we plan to carry out tests with an interferometer. Further, we formed a new collaboration with Prof. Rajan Vaidyanathan of the University of Central Florida to replace the CP1 with a shape memory alloy (SMA). With his collaboration, we acquired new Federal funding outside of NASA to explore the use of SMAs (we use NiTi). Our preliminary results indicate that we can produce deformations greater than 1 micron on approximately 100 microns thick. Furthermore we have shown that the NiTi can deploy to better than 1 micron of its set original and then trained shape.

Re-Configurable Elements↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Irradiation-Induced Filter Heating on Calibration of NIR-Longpass-Filtered Reference Solar Cells

Reference solar cells play a crucial role in determining the performance of photovoltaic (PV) devices. In the performance calibration chain of mainstream single-junction PV technologies, common reference cell types include Si, KG-filtered Si, and GaAs cells. For emerging multijunction (MJ) PV technologies, such as CdTe/Si and perovskite/Si, Si reference cells with colored glass near-infrared-longpass (LP) filters like Schott RG-715 and 850 glass have been proposed. They offer a better spectral response that matches the bottom junctions of the emerging MJs, which could lead to lower uncertainties in performance measurements. However, this article reveals a prominent decrease in short-circuit current (ISC) during National Renewable Energy Laboratory's primary calibration over the course of minutes when using this type of LP-filtered reference cell, which could result in unacceptable measurement errors. Unlike quartz or KG filter glasses, LP colored glass filters demonstrate temperature-sensitive cut-on wavelength. When incident irradiance reaches these LP-filtered reference cells, the increased temperature due to light absorption causes a shift of the cut-on to longer wavelength. As a result, the device I SC exhibits a continuous decrease (approximately a 2.5% drop with RG850 LP filter in a 5-min duration) even when the device temperature is controlled at 25 degrees C. To address the temperature gradient issue between colored glass LP filter and the reference cell, we propose the direct integration of thin-film LP semiconductor layer on reference cells. This type of LP-filter-integrated cell has shown minimal temperature-related I SC variation and can serve as a more reliable reference cell source for accurate performance measurements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using Low Energy Atmospheric Neutrinos for Precision Measurement of the Mixing Parameters

Use of low energy atmospheric neutrinos is considered for precision measurement of neutrino mixing parameters. At around energy $E \simeq$ a few $\times$100 MeV and baseline $L$ of a few $\times$1000 km, CP phase effect is $\sim$10 times larger than that of the conventional LBL accelerator neutrino experiments. We report here a few progresses: (1) To analyze physics in the region, a new perturbative framework at around the solar-scale enhancement is developed. (2) To know the characteristic features of CP $\delta$ dependence of the atmospheric neutrinos at low energies, we plot the ratio of the $\nu_{e}$ and $\bar{\nu}_{e}$ fluxes $F(\delta)/F(\delta=0)$ for $\delta=\pm \frac{\pi}{2}$ and $\pi$ as a function of $E$ using the Honda {\it et al.} flux. Interestingly, it shows $\delta$ dependence of $\simeq$5-10\% level, with positive (negative) sign for $\nu_{e}$ ($\bar{\nu}_{e}$). (3) To reduce the flux systematic errors, measurement of muon energy distribution around $\sim$1 GeV at high altitude may be useful. Water Cherenkov or muon range detectors may be the options with advantage in the latter if it is magnetized in view of the $\delta$ dependence of the flux.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Sea level static calibration of a compact multimission aircraft propulsion simulator with inlet flow distortion

Wind tunnel tests of propulsion-integrated aircraft models have identified inlet flow distortion as a major source of compressor airflow measurement error in turbine-powered propulsion simulators. Consequently, two Compact Multimission Aircraft Propulsion Simulator (CMAPS) units were statically tested at sea level ambient conditions to establish simulator operating performance characteristics and to calibrate the compressor airflow against an accurate bellmouth flowmeter in the presence of inlet flow distortions. The distortions were generated using various-shaped wire mesh screens placed upstream of the compressor. CMAPS operating maps and performance envelopes were obtained for inlet total pressure distortions (ratio of the difference between the maximum and minimum total pressures to the average total pressure) up to 35 percent, and were compared to baseline simulator operating characteristics for a uniform inlet. Deviations from CMAPS baseline performance were attributed to the coupled variation of both compressor inlet-flow distortion and Reynolds number index throughout the simulator operating envelope for each screen configuration. Four independent methods were used to determine CMAPS compressor airflow; direct compressor inlet and discharge measurements, an entering/exiting flow-balance relationships, and a correlation between the mixer pressure and the corrected compressor airflow. Of the four methods, the last yielded the least scatter in the compressor flow coefficient, approximately + or - 3 percent over the range of flow distortions.

Won, Mark J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal PMU design based on sampling model and sensitivity analysis

The precise measurements of the synchrophasor and frequency from phasor measurement units (PMUs) are widely used in power grid applications. With the improvement of the technique, applications always require stable dynamic performance and higher accuracy for the synchrophasor and frequency measurements, which is challenging for PMU development. To evaluate the contribution of PMU hardware to measurement accuracy, this paper proposes a general-purpose sampling model to analyze the measurement error. In the proposed sampling model, a strict mathematical derivation is derived, where its error is purely determined by the parameters of the PMU hardware. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by three methods, including mathematical analysis, computer simulation, and variance-based sensitivity analysis. Through the sensitivity analysis, this paper establishes the systematic formulation and the inclusion of synchrophasor, frequency, and ROCOF. Experimental results based on the real-world testbench involving distribution-level PMUs match the mathematical analysis conclusion, which verifies the correctness of the general-purpose sampling model. Furthermore, a strategy for the optimal PMU design is proposed, which could guide PMU design in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Spherical Earth Solution for TOA Lightning Location Retrieval

With the advent of high-speed digital computers, the method of chi square minimization is a highly practical means for analyzing a wide variety of (otherwise intractable) nonlinear inversion problems in applied mathematical physics. Little thought or effort is required to apply the chi square method to obtain quick and reasonable estimates of a solution, and the method offers a means to assess retrieval errors. Because the method is simple and practical it is sometimes hastily applied to problems that can be solved by formal analytic or quasi-analytic means. Presently, Global Atmospherics Inc. (GAI) finds the minimum of a chi square function to analyze time-of-arrival (TOA) and magnetic bearing data derived from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN); ellipsoidal Earth geometry is assumed. An analytic solution to this problem has not yet been attained, but the consideration and solving of less general problem statements might eventually lead to a final solution. In the present study, the problem of retrieving lightning ground-strike location on a spherical Earth surface using a network of 4 or more time-of-arrival (TOA) sensors is considered. It is shown that this problem has an analytic solution and therefore does not require the use of nonlinear estimation theory (such as the chi square method mentioned above). The mathematical robustness of the analytic solution is tested using computer-generated lightning sources and simulated TOA measurement errors. A quasi-analytic extension of the spherical Earth solution for an oblate spheroidal Earth geometry is considered in a related study. The incorporation of magnetic bearing information into these analytic solutions would lead to a general and elegant analytic retrieval scheme that would most likely replace the chi square estimation theory currently employed by Global Atmospherics Inc. (GAI).

Koshak, William J,↗
NASA NTRS2015

Optimization of Microphone Locations for Acoustic Liner Impedance Eduction

Two impedance eduction methods are explored for use with data acquired in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube. The first is an indirect method based on the convected Helmholtz equation, and the second is a direct method based on the Kumaresan and Tufts algorithm. Synthesized no-flow data, with random jitter to represent measurement error, are used to evaluate a number of possible microphone locations. Statistical approaches are used to evaluate the suitability of each set of microphone locations. Given the computational resources required, small sample statistics are employed for the indirect method. Since the direct method is much less computationally intensive, a Monte Carlo approach is employed to gather its statistics. A comparison of results achieved with full and reduced sets of microphone locations is used to determine which sets of microphone locations are acceptable. For the indirect method, each array that includes microphones in all three regions (upstream and downstream hard wall sections, and liner test section) provides acceptable results, even when as few as eight microphones are employed. The best arrays employ microphones well away from the leading and trailing edges of the liner. The direct method is constrained to use microphones opposite the liner. Although a number of arrays are acceptable, the optimum set employs 14 microphones positioned well away from the leading and trailing edges of the liner. The selected sets of microphone locations are also evaluated with data measured for ceramic tubular and perforate-over-honeycomb liners at three flow conditions (Mach 0.0, 0.3, and 0.5). They compare favorably with results attained using all 53 microphone locations. Although different optimum microphone locations are selected for the two impedance eduction methods, there is significant overlap. Thus, the union of these two microphone arrays is preferred, as it supports usage of both methods. This array contains 3 microphones in the upstream hard wall section, 14 microphones opposite the liner, and 3 microphones in the downstream hard wall section.

Jones, M. G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deployment of salt sample extraction system at an engineering-scale electrorefiner

The goal of the salt sampling program at Argonne is to develop and deploy automated molten salt sampling approaches for interfacing relevant unit operations with salt analysis to improve the timeliness of sampling-based accountancy measurements. Two technologies under development in support of this goal are a vacuum sampling loop module and a high-throughput pneumatic sample generator module. Compared to traditional point sampling approaches (i.e., dip probes), the vacuum sampling loop facilitates the collection of a larger cross-section of the bulk salt in order to collect more representative samples. The vacuum sampling approach also eliminates the risk of dross contamination of samples and avoids the use of moving parts in the salt. The pneumatic sample generator module is used to facilitate high-throughput sample analysis to improve the measurement precision of any given analytical technique by averaging out random sampling and measurement errors. In FY21, two methods for integrating these two modules were tested including direct fluidic coupling and coupling using a solid salt transfer mechanism. Solid salt transfer was ultimately selected over fluidic coupling, primarily to enable the transport of samples over longer distances to support automated at-line integration with high-precision techniques (such as microcalorimetry) that cannot withstand the conditions near an electrorefining process. To facilitate rapid solid salt coupling, new mechanisms were developed for rapidly charging and discharging salt sample tubes at the vacuum sampling loop and pneumatic sample generator modules, respectively. While the charging mechanism will be deployed in FY22, the discharge mechanism was tested in FY21 and is described here. The solid salt tube transfer method was deployed at one of Argonne’s engineering-scale electrorefiners to implement at-line high-throughput pneumatic micro-sample generation capabilities. The approach was used to generate precise uranium- and lanthanide-bearing electrorefiner micro-samples with the specific dimensions requested by researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use in testing their novel microcalorimeter x-ray techniques. The solid salt transfer mechanism proved not only to be an effective means of integrating the precision sample generator with vacuum sampling, but also improved the performance of the sampler generator. To discharge salt from the sample tubes at the sampler generator, tube segments were inserted directly into the sample generator’s Helmholtz chamber and pressure pulse actuations were used to generate precision molten salt samples directly from the tube segments. The direct insertion of sample tubes into the sample generator enabled rapid loading of the salt and prevented salt from contacting most of the interior surfaces of the sample generator, which eliminated cross-contamination between runs. The vacuum sampling-loop tube charging mechanism will support high-throughput tube sampling operations by employing a dynamic vacuum filling process to fill short charge tubes that are configured to be rapidly connected and disconnected from the loop. The dynamic vacuum sampling operation will be automated, and sample tube handling can be executed with simple overhead actuation. Because the modular sampling approach described here eliminates the need for new high-radiation sample handling capabilities, salt-wetted seals, salt-wetted moving parts, and heated transfer lines outside the electrorefiner, it will address most of the remaining technical challenges for the at-line deployment of high-precision analytical techniques which will enable significant reductions in the time delay for sampling-based high-precision accountancy measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metasurface‐Based Mueller Matrix Microscope

In conventional optical microscopes, image contrast of objects mainly results from the differences in light intensity and/or color. Muller matrix optical microscopes (MMMs), on the other hand, can provide significantly enhanced image contrast and rich information about objects by analyzing their interactions with polarized light. However, state-of-the-art MMMs are fundamentally limited by bulky and slow polarization state generators and analyzers. Here, the study demonstrates a metasurface-based MMM, i.e., Meta-MMM, which is equipped with a chip-integrated, single-shot metasurface polarization state analyzer (Meta-PSA). The Meta-MMM is featured with high-speed measurement (≈2s per Muller matrix (MM) image), superior operation stability, dual-color operation, and high measurement accuracy (measurement error 1–2%) for MM imaging. The Meta-MMM is applied to nanostructure characterization, surface morphology analysis, and discovering birefringent structures in honeybee wings. As a result, the Meta-MMMs hold the promise to revolutionize various applications from biological imaging, medical diagnosis, and material characterization to industry inspection and space exploration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Identifying attributes of CO 2 leakage zones in shallow aquifers using a parametric level set method: Original Research Article: Identifying attributes of CO 2 leakage zones in shallow aquifers using a parametric level set method

Leakage through abandoned wells and geologic faults poses the greatest risk to CO 2 storage permanence. For shallow aquifers, secondary CO 2 plumes emanating from the leak zones may go undetected for a sustained period of time and has the greatest potential to cause large-scale and long-term environmental impacts. Identification of the attributes of leak zones, including their shape, location, and strength, is required for environmental risk assessment. This study applies a parametric level set (PaLS) method to characterize leak zones. Level set methods are appealing for tracking topological changes and recovering unknown shapes of objects. However, level set evolution using the conventional level set methods is computationally challenging. In PaLS, the level set function is approximated by using a weighted sum of basis functions and the level set evolution problem is replaced by an optimization problem. The efficacy of PaLS is demonstrated by reconstructing attributes of a CO 2 leak zone in a carbonate aquifer. Our results show that PaLS is a robust source identification method that can recover the approximate leak zone locations in the presence of measurement errors, model parameter uncertainty, and inaccurate guesses of source flux strengths. Accurate delineation of source geometry is achievable when a relatively dense observation network is used. The PaLS-based, source recovery framework introduced in this work is generic and can be adapted for any reactive transport model by simply switching the pre- and post-processing routines.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An in-depth field validation of “DUSST”: A novel low-maintenance soiling measurement device

This study presents indoor and field validation results for two versions of the “DUSST” optical soiling sensor, intended to be a low-cost and low-maintenance device for measuring photovoltaic soiling losses. Indoor testing covers irradiance calibration and temperature dependencies, which are necessary to achieve high accuracy, low uncertainty field measurements. Field testing includes an array of different environments including Saudi Arabia, California, Utah, and Colorado. DUSST versions include a configuration with a 530-nm light emitting diode (LED) (discussed in previous work) and a unit with seven white LEDs and a polycarbonate collimating optic. The new design increases light intensity fivefold and demonstrates a single linear calibration coefficient is effective to measure soiling losses as high as 75%. Field data from Utah and California demonstrate that daily soiling loss measurements and soiling rate calculations closely match both reference cell and full-size module measurements of soiling losses and soiling rates. Corrective methods employed on the Utah DUSST sensor suggest that it is possible to achieve measurement errors as low as ±0.1% at two standard deviations. Field data from both Colorado and Saudi Arabia demonstrate that LED lens soiling can occur and that further design optimizations are needed. The lesson learned from all the field deployment locations suggests directions for future design improvements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-temperature-superposition analysis of diverse datasets by the minimum-arclength method: long-term prediction with uncertainty margins

In a recent publication, we carried out an extensive analysis of an unsupervised method of determining optimum shift factors in time-temperature-superposition of accelerated-aging data that involves minimizing the vertical arclength to obtain the master curve. For synthetic Arrhenius data with a variety of noise distributions, the work showed that, in conjunction with bootstrap-resampling, the method can produce reliable estimates of the mean activation energy along with uncertainty quantification. Here, we apply the above method to six different datasets taken from the published literature and demonstrate accurate prediction of mean activation energy from the data as-is without the need for any pre-processing or fitting. We also compare uncertainty margins computed by second-order bootstrap with that by linear regression theory and show that the former appears to provide consistent margins in the presence of common noise types in real data, including intra-isotherm measurement-errors, sample-to-sample variations, and intrinsic deviation from perfect Arrhenius behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗