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Error Localization Examples: Looking for a Needle in a Hay-stack

Finite element models (FEM) are routinely developed and used during fabrication of high dollar-value hardware. NASA as part of the pre-flight certification of launch vehicles routinely conducts vibration and static tests to calibrate models used for flight-risk assessments. As part of the calibration process, certain areas in the model are modified, using engineering judgment and sensitivity analysis, to match the test results. Unfortunately, tools to identify problem areas in the FEM using test data directly are scarce. Over the years, Error Localization Algorithms (ELA) have been proposed with very limited success. Recently, the Analytical Dynamics Model Improvement (ADMI) algorithm, which computes closed-form mass and stiffness corrections to match the test data exactly, have been shown to be effective for error localization. The paper will present several FEM example problems where ELA is used with simulated test data to determine FEM problem areas. For each example, the correct answer is shown along with ELA results. It is shown that the ELA process is able to identify general problem areas in the FEM, which are consistent with known model perturbations. However, in most cases the ELA identified area of improvement is larger than the true answer. Nonetheless, with proper optimization tools, calibration results using the ELA identified areas provide excellent results.

error localization↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constitutive Models via Automatic Differentiation v.1.0.0

SAND2024-00905O Constitutive Models via Automatic Differentiation (CMAD) provides a software framework for solving constitutive or material model calibration problems. It relies on JAX's automatic differentiation capabilities to compute the derivatives needed for both forward and adjoint sensitivity analyses. The software can be used to implement constitutive models and calibrate the parameters from experimental data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Seidl, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Potential and Actual Evapotranspiration Fluxes Using Six Meteorological Data-Based Approaches for a Range of Climate and Land Cover Types

Evapotranspiration is the major component of the water cycle, so a correct estimate of this variable is fundamental. The purpose of the present research is to assess the monthly scale accuracy of six meteorological data-based models in the prediction of evapotranspiration (ET) losses by comparing the modelled fluxes with the observed ones from eight sites equipped with eddy covariance stations which differ in terms of vegetation and climate type. Three potential ET methods (Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor, and Blaney-Criddle models) and three actual ET models (the Advection-Aridity, the Granger and Gray, and the Antecedent Precipitation Index method) have been proposed. The findings show that the models performances differ from site to site and they depend on the vegetation and climate characteristics. Indeed, they show a wide range of error values ranging from 0.18 to 2.78. It has been not possible to identify a single model able to outperform the others in each biome, but in general, the Advection-Aridity approach seems to be the most accurate, especially when the model calibration in not carried out. It returns very low error values close to 0.38. When the calibration procedure is performed, the most accurate model is the Granger and Gray approach with minimum error of 0.13 but, at the same time, it is the most impacted by this process, and therefore, in a context of data scarcity, it results the less recommended for ET prediction. The performances of the investigated ET approaches have been furthermore tested in case of lack of measured data of soil heat fluxes and net radiation considering using empirical relationships based on meteorological data to derive these variables. Results show that, the use of empirical formulas to derive ET estimates increases the errors up to 200% with the consequent loss of model accuracy.

net radiation↗

DOE OSTI2013

Effects of error covariance structure on estimation of model averaging weights and predictive performance

When conducting model averaging for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty, the averaging weights are often evaluated using model selection criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC (Akaike Information Criterion, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Kashyap Information Criterion, respectively). However, this method often leads to an unrealistic situation in which the best model receives overwhelmingly large averaging weight (close to 100%), which cannot be justified by available data and knowledge. It was found in this study that this problem was caused by using the covariance matrix, CE, of measurement errors for estimating the negative log likelihood function common to all the model selection criteria. This problem can be resolved by using the covariance matrix, Cek, of total errors (including model errors and measurement errors) to account for the correlation between the total errors. An iterative two-stage method was developed in the context of maximum likelihood inverse modeling to iteratively infer the unknown Cek from the residuals during model calibration. The inferred Cek was then used in the evaluation of model selection criteria and model averaging weights. While this method was limited to serial data using time series techniques in this study, it can be extended to spatial data using geostatistical techniques. The method was first evaluated in a synthetic study and then applied to an experimental study, in which alternative surface complexation models were developed to simulate column experiments of uranium reactive transport. It was found that the total errors of the alternative models were temporally correlated due to the model errors. The iterative two-stage method using Cek resolved the problem that the best model receives 100% model averaging weight, and the resulting model averaging weights were supported by the calibration results and physical understanding of the alternative models. Using Cek obtained from the iterative two-stage method also improved predictive performance of the individual models and model averaging in both synthetic and experimental studies.

error correlation↗

DOE OSTI2014

Application of evolved gas analysis to cold-cap reactions of melter feeds for nuclear waste vitrification

The melter feed (a mixture of nuclear waste and glass forming and modifying additives) experiences multiple gas-evolving reactions in an electrical glass-melting furnace during the vitrification of nuclear wastes. Foams from the residual gases can significantly alter the melting rate through mass and heat transfers. Here, we employed the thermogravimetry-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (TGA-GC-MS) combination to perform quantitative evolved gas analysis (EGA) and developed a simple calibration model which correlates the overall mass loss rate with the evolution rates for individual gases. The model parameters are obtained from the least squares analysis, assuming that the gas-evolving reactions are independent. Finally, the EGA adds the ‘chemical identity’ to the reactions indicated by the ‘phenomenological’ kinetic model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2013

A Physically-Based Correlation of Irradiation-Induced Transition Temperature Shifts for RPV Steels1

This paper presents a physically-based, empirically calibrated model for estimating irradiation-induced transition temperature shifts in reactor pressure vessel steels, based on a broader database and more complete understanding of embrittlement mechanisms than was available for earlier models. Brief descriptions of the underlying radiation damage mechanisms and the database are included, but the emphasis is on the model and the quality of its fit to U.S. power reactor surveillance data. The model is compared to a random sample of surveillance data that were set aside and not used in fitting and to selected independent data from test reactor irradiations, in both cases showing good ability to predict data that were not used for calibration. The model is a good fit to the surveillance data, with no significant residual error trends for variables included in the model or additional variables that could be included.

Eason, Ernest D.↗

DOE OSTI2019

IPEAT+: A Built-In Optimization and Automatic Calibration Tool of SWAT+

For almost 30 years, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been successfully implemented to address issues around various scientific subjects in the world. On the other hand, it has been reaching to the limit of potential flexibility in further development by the current structure. The new generation SWAT, dubbed SWAT+, was released recently with entirely new coding features. SWAT+ is designed to have far more advanced functions and capacities to handle challenging watershed modeling tasks for hydrologic and water quality processes. However, it is still inevitable to conduct model calibration before the SWAT+ model is applied to engineering projects and research programs. The primary goal of this study is to develop an open-source, easy-to-operate automatic calibration tool for SWAT+, dubbed IPEAT+ (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool Plus). There are four major advantages: (i) Open-source code to general users; (ii) compiled and integrated directly with SWAT+ source code as a single executable; (iii) supported by the SWAT developer group; and, (iv) built with efficient optimization technique. The coupling work between IPEAT+ and SWAT+ is fairly simple, which can be conducted by users with minor efforts. IPEAT+ will be regularly updated with the latest SWAT+ revision. If users would like to integrate IPEAT+ with various versions of SWAT+, only few lines in the SWAT+ source code are required to be updated. IPEAT+ is the first automatic calibration tool integrated with SWAT+ source code. Users can take advantage of the tool to pursue more cutting-edge and forward-thinking scientific questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian calibration of strength model parameters from Taylor impact data

Materials strength plays a key role in determining the mechanical response of engineered structures. As such, accurate strength models are crucial in simulations involving complex loading conditions, particularly when deformation in the plastic regime is deemed important. In this work, a Gaussian process based surrogate for a finite element simulation of a Taylor impact test is developed and used for Bayesian calibration of the Preston–Tonks–Wallace strength model. Here, the surrogate model is shown to closely approximate the salient features of the Taylor cylinder deformation and is validated against simulation output before being used in the strength model calibration routine. The results show that Taylor impact test data can be used in the calibration of constitutive equations through the use of a combination of data science techniques, namely Gaussian processes and Bayesian inference.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Highly accurate thickness measurement of multi-layered automotive paints using terahertz technology

In this contribution, we present a highly accurate approach for thickness measurements of multi-layered automotive paints using terahertz time domain spectroscopy in reflection geometry. The proposed method combines the benefits of a model-based material parameters extraction method to calibrate the paint coatings, a generalized Rouard's method to simulate the terahertz radiation behavior within arbitrary thin films, and the robustness of a powerful evolutionary optimization algorithm to increase the sensitivity of the minimum thickness measurement limit. Within the framework of this work, a self-calibration model is introduced, which takes into consideration the real industrial challenges such as the effect of wet-on-wet spray in the painting process.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2013

Advanced simulation capability for environmental management - current status and future applications

The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM), Office of Soil and Groundwater (EM-12), is supporting development of the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM). ASCEM is a state-of-the-art scientific tool and approach that is currently aimed at understanding and predicting contaminant fate and transport in natural and engineered systems. ASCEM is a modular and open source high-performance computing tool. It will be used to facilitate integrated approaches to modeling and site characterization, and provide robust and standardized assessments of performance and risk for EM cleanup and closure activities. The ASCEM project continues to make significant progress in development of capabilities, with current emphasis on integration of capabilities in FY12. Capability development is occurring for both the Platform and Integrated Tool-sets and High-Performance Computing (HPC) multi-process simulator. The Platform capabilities provide the user interface and tools for end-to-end model development, starting with definition of the conceptual model, management of data for model input, model calibration and uncertainty analysis, and processing of model output, including visualization. The HPC capabilities target increased functionality of process model representations, tool-sets for interaction with Platform, and verification and model confidence testing. The integration of the Platform and HPC capabilities were tested and evaluated for EM applications in a set of demonstrations as part of Site Applications Thrust Area activities in 2012. The current maturity of the ASCEM computational and analysis capabilities has afforded the opportunity for collaborative efforts to develop decision analysis tools to support and optimize radioactive waste disposal. Recent advances in computerized decision analysis frameworks provide the perfect opportunity to bring this capability into ASCEM. This will allow radioactive waste disposal to be evaluated based on decision needs, such as disposal, closure, and maintenance. Decision models will be used in ASCEM to identify information/data needs, and model refinements that might be necessary to effectively reduce uncertainty in waste disposal decisions. Decision analysis models start with tools for framing the problem, and continue with modeling both the science side of the problem (for example, inventories, source terms, fate and transport, receptors, risk, etc.), and the cost side of the problem, which could include costs of implementation of any action that is chosen (e.g., for disposal or closure), and the values associated with those actions. The cost side of the decision problem covers economic, environmental and societal costs, which correspond to the three pillars of sustainability (economic, social, and environmental). These tools will facilitate stakeholder driven decision analysis to support optimal sustainable solutions in ASCEM. In this paper the current state of ASCEM is first described, followed by a description of the approach that will be taken to augment ASCEM for simulating fate and transport with tools that facilitate a top-down or systems level view of finding optimal, sustainable solutions to difficult environmental (including radioactive waste) problems. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation of Particulate Transport for Delivery of Solid Amendments into the Subsurface: FY24 Status Report

For particulate-based amendments to be viable for field-scale remediation at the Hanford Site (e.g., 200 DV-1 Operable Unit), particles need to be delivered a sufficient radial distance from an injection well and retained at concentrations high enough for effective treatment. An accurate description of the particle radius of influence (ROI) is critical for developing an overall remediation strategy. However, field-scale particle simulations are currently limited due to insufficient simulation capabilities and a lack of experimental data to validate and parameterize particle transport models. To help build toward field-scale deployment, this fiscal year (FY) we have (1) developed a pre screening tool to estimate particle transport, (2) implemented particle transport models within PFLOTRAN, and (3) conducted preliminary estimations of particle ROI. While field-scale numerical simulations will ultimately be necessary before remedy design and field implementation, we have developed a pre-screening tool that offers valuable estimations of expected particle injectability and ROI in a 1-D system. The advantage of the tool is that it does not require extensive laboratory experiments and instead makes predictions based solely on routine laboratory measurements. This tool can assist in down-selection and decision-making by identifying which particle amendment systems are worth pursuing in future laboratory experiments, such as 1-D column tests and beyond. With any system, scaling up from the lab to the field presents challenges. Currently, there is no field data available for model calibration or validation. However, the theoretical particle models being developed herein are the best tools available to guide progress toward field deployment. To help bridge this gap and verify model predictions, larger-scale lab experiments are being proposed. To advance simulation capabilities, six particle transport models are being integrated into the reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN. These include colloid filtration theory (CFT) and five additional particle transport models (M1-M5). Each model, from M1 to M5, progressively incorporates additional particle transport and retention processes. Ultimately, the simplest model capable of accurately describing 1-D column data will be selected and parameterized. During FY24, the CFT and M1 model have been fully implemented within PFLOTRAN. Using an existing 1 D column experiment, the two currently implemented particle transport models (CFT and M1), and associated parameters, were fit to this experiment. While simpler model formulations are helpful for estimations, these formulations could not fully describe particle transport and retention behavior in the previous 1-D column experiment. Thus, additional complexities will need to be considered, which will be accounted for in the M2-M5 model formulations. Additionally, because a viscous, shear thinning fluid was required to keep particles in suspension, considerations for flow will also need to also be accounted for. Therefore, a new immiscible two-phase flow mode is currently being implemented in PFLOTRAN. With some modifications, this new flow module could also support simulation of non-Newtonian liquid amendments, foams, and emulsions. We also estimated the expected ROI of solid amendments using 1-D simulations. The average predicted ROI was approximately 15 ft for micron-sized zero valent iron (mZVI) suspended in xanthan gum (XG). Using the pre screening tool and ROI estimates, additional amendment-delivery laboratory characterization and experiments are proposed. The results from additional experiments can be used to validate and parametrize particulate transport model formulations, which will ultimately provide predictive capabilities for field amendment-delivery systems.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2013

ADVANCED SIMULATION CAPABILITY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT- CURRENT STATUS AND PHASE II DEMONSTRATION RESULTS

The U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM), Office of Soil and Groundwater, is supporting development of the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM). ASCEM is a state-of-the-art scientific tool and approach for understanding and predicting contaminant fate and transport in natural and engineered systems. The modular and open source high-performance computing tool facilitates integrated approaches to modeling and site characterization that enable robust and standardized assessments of performance and risk for EM cleanup and closure activities. The ASCEM project continues to make significant progress in development of computer software capabilities with an emphasis on integration of capabilities in FY12. Capability development is occurring for both the Platform and Integrated Toolsets and High-Performance Computing (HPC) Multiprocess Simulator. The Platform capabilities provide the user interface and tools for end-to-end model development, starting with definition of the conceptual model, management of data for model input, model calibration and uncertainty analysis, and processing of model output, including visualization. The HPC capabilities target increased functionality of process model representations, toolsets for interaction with Platform, and verification and model confidence testing. The Platform and HPC capabilities are being tested and evaluated for EM applications in a set of demonstrations as part of Site Applications Thrust Area activities. The Phase I demonstration focusing on individual capabilities of the initial toolsets was completed in 2010. The Phase II demonstration completed in 2012 focused on showcasing integrated ASCEM capabilities. For Phase II, the Hanford Site deep vadose zone (BC Cribs) served as an application site for an end-to-end demonstration of capabilities, with emphasis on integration and linkages between the Platform and HPC components. Other demonstrations, addressing attenuation-based remedies at the Savannah River Site F Area and performance assessment for a representative waste tank, illustrate integration of linked ASCEM capabilities and initial integration efforts with tools from the Cementitious Barriers Partnership.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

ADVANCED SIMULATION CAPABILITY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT – CURRENT STATUS AND PHASE II DEMONSTRATION RESULTS

DOE Environmental Management, advanced simulation,↗

DOE OSTI2013

Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management - Current Status and Phase II Demonstration Results - 13161

The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM), Office of Soil and Groundwater, is supporting development of the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM). ASCEM is a state-of-the-art scientific tool and approach for understanding and predicting contaminant fate and transport in natural and engineered systems. The modular and open source high-performance computing tool facilitates integrated approaches to modeling and site characterization that enable robust and standardized assessments of performance and risk for EM cleanup and closure activities. The ASCEM project continues to make significant progress in development of computer software capabilities with an emphasis on integration of capabilities in FY12. Capability development is occurring for both the Platform and Integrated Tool-sets and High-Performance Computing (HPC) Multi-process Simulator. The Platform capabilities provide the user interface and tools for end-to-end model development, starting with definition of the conceptual model, management of data for model input, model calibration and uncertainty analysis, and processing of model output, including visualization. The HPC capabilities target increased functionality of process model representations, tool-sets for interaction with Platform, and verification and model confidence testing. The Platform and HPC capabilities are being tested and evaluated for EM applications in a set of demonstrations as part of Site Applications Thrust Area activities. The Phase I demonstration focusing on individual capabilities of the initial tool-sets was completed in 2010. The Phase II demonstration completed in 2012 focused on showcasing integrated ASCEM capabilities. For Phase II, the Hanford Site deep vadose zone (BC Cribs) served as an application site for an end-to-end demonstration of capabilities, with emphasis on integration and linkages between the Platform and HPC components. Other demonstrations, addressing attenuation-based remedies at the Savannah River Site F Area and performance assessment for a representative waste tank, illustrate integration of linked ASCEM capabilities and initial integration efforts with tools from the Cementitious Barriers Partnership. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pragmatic Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Inverse Estimation of Structural Dynamics Parameters given Material Property Uncertainties and Limited Sensor Data

In this report we demonstrate some relatively simple and inexpensive methods to effectively account for various sources of epistemic lack-of-knowledge type uncertainty in inverse problems. The demonstration problem involves inverse estimation of six parameters of a bolted joint that attaches a kettlebell shaped object to a thick plate. The parameters are efficiently inverted in a modal-based model calibration using gradient-based optimization. Two material properties of the kettlebell are treated as uncertain to within given epistemic uncertainty bounds. We apply and test interval and sparse-sample probabilistic approaches to account for uncertainty in the estimated parameters (and various scalar functionals of the parameters as generic quantities of interest, QOIs) due to uncertainties in the material properties. We also investigate the error effects of limited numbers of vibration sensors (accelerometers) on the kettlebell and plate, and therefore abbreviated excitation/response information in the parameter inversions. We propose and demonstrate a Leave-K-Sensors-Out “cross-prediction” UQ approach to estimate related uncertainties on the parameters and QOI functionals. We indicate how uncertainties from material properties and limited sensors are treated in a combined manner. The economical combined UQ approach involves just three to five samples (i.e. three to five inverse simulations), with no added complication or error/uncertainty from use of surrogate models for affordability. Finally, we describe a related economical UQ approach for handling potential parameter solution non-uniqueness and numerical optimization related precision uncertainties in the estimated parameter values. Indicated further research is identified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2011

Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs, we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1991

Current status and future developments in radar remote sensing

Some of the major initiatives and directions of remote sensing using SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data alone and in conjunction with other sensors for Earth science investigations are outlined. Specific emphasis is on areas key to global monitoring using SAR data from spaceborne platforms: calibration, geophysical processing, and generation of digital elevation models. Calibration as used here encompasses end to end system characterization over the life of a sensor and characterization of data products relative to past and future sensors. Geophysical processing is defined here to include any processing which results in derived geophysical units. An additional data type, topography, which is required to complete the three dimensional view of surface properties and correct for distortions inherent in SAR is discussed. Future challenges in radar remote sensing include development of strategies to extrapolate from regional to global scale models and development of new sensor technology.

Evans, Diane L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Current status and future developments in radar remote sensing

Some of the major initiatives and directions of remote sensing using SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data alone and in conjunction with other sensors for earth science investigations are outlined. Specific emphasis is on areas key to global monitoring using SAR data from spaceborne platforms: calibration, geophysical processing, and generation of digital elevation models. Calibration as used here encompasses end-to-end system characterization over the life of a sensor and characterization of data products relative to past and future sensors. Geophysical processing is defined here to include any processing which results in derived geophysical units. An additional data type, topography, which is required to complete the three-dimensional view of surface properties and correct for distortions inherent in SAR is discussed. Future challenges in radar remote sensing include development of strategies to extrapolate from regional to global scale models and development of new sensor technology.

Evans, Diane L.↗