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At least 541 records · Page 30

Employing Fracture Statistics to Track Cell Reliability Through Module Fabrication

In this work we demonstrate how fracture statistics may be employed to track cell reliability through module fabrication steps. We were able to detect how cell cutting equipment could reduce cell fracture strain by 25 % as well as increase its variability. A smaller reduction was found to result from the ribbon soldering operation, and all cells measured were weaker when strained in an orientation perpendicular to the gridlines. Cell fracture measurements were found to be consistent with the number of cracked cells experienced in full sized modules exposed to mechanical loading. A structural mechanics model was created to elucidate how the requisite fracture strain is developed in a cell encapsulated within a PV module and demonstrates that this strain decreases more than 50 % from its center to edge when placed within the inner loading span of four-point flexure. The associated implications on the apparent cell strength is examined with an effective volume treatment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Analytical models of the strength and ductility of CNT reinforced metal matrix nano composites under elevated temperatures

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) can greatly enhance the strength of metal matrix composites while resulting in ductility loss. This strength-ductility tradeoff dilemma always confines the development of material design and real-life applications. Here in this work, a temperature dependent strengthening analytical model is proposed for CNT reinforced metal matrix composites which considers three common strengthening mechanisms: Orowan looping effect, thermal expansion mismatch effect, and load bearing effect. The proposed model can predict composite material strength with different volume fractions of CNTs and under different temperatures. Combining the strengthening model with the stress based modified Mohr-Coulomb (sMMC) ductile fracture model, a ductility analytical model is then derived. This ductility analytical model includes the influences of temperature, multi-axial stress loading conditions, as well as the aforementioned three strengthening mechanisms. A good agreement has been achieved between literature published experimental data and analytical predictions for both composite material strength and ductility loss. The proposed two analytical models can provide a straightforward way to study the strength-ductility relationship for CNT reinforced metal matrix composites over a wide range of temperatures and different stress states, and then provide guidance on new material design and processing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine Learning Travel Time emulator

This notebook makes seismic phase travel time predictions using machine learning. There are 3 different machine learning models corresponding to the three regimes: local, regional, and teleseismic. After reading in the test data and splitting into the 3 regimes, we use precomputed scalers to scale the input features used to make the travel time predictions. We then load the machine learning models and use them to predict travel times for test data.

Anderson, Gemma↗

Power grid frequency prediction using spatiotemporal modeling

Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Validation of a Generalized Formulation for Load-Sharing Behavior in Epicyclic Gears for Wind Turbines: Preprint

In an ideal epicyclic gear set every parallel gear path transmits the same amount of torque. However, it is well known that certain manufacturing variations result in unequal load sharing between the parallel gear paths. Previous works have developed and validated a general closed-form analytical model of this phenomenon that describes the load sharing characteristics of epicyclic gear sets from three to six planets at any torque level. More recently, this analytical model has been reformulated to include the effects of gravity, carrier bearing clearance, and external applied moments, all of which are relevant to most gearboxes and their mounting configuration in horizontal-axis wind turbines. In this paper, the reformulated model is compared to load measurements collected from two similar wind turbine gearboxes with three-planet epicyclic gear sets. The resulting load sharing values are also compared to the mesh load factor requirements in the AGMA 6006 and IEC 61400-4 wind turbine gearbox design standards. Load sharing factors as high as 1.16 at extreme rotor moments and 1.08 with no moment were measured for the gearbox with cylindrical roller bearings, but the load sharing factor remained below 1.10 for the gearbox with tapered roller bearings The results show that in the wind turbine application, load sharing is not equal - even for three-planet systems with a floating central member because of the effects of gravity, rotor moments, and the resulting relative motions among the epicyclic gear components within the carrier bearing clearance.

closed-form analytical model↗

Validation of a Generalized Formulation for Load Sharing Behavior in Epicyclic Gears for Wind Turbines

In an ideal epicyclic gear set every parallel gear path transmits the same amount of torque. However, it is well known that certain manufacturing variations result in unequal load sharing between the parallel gear paths. Previous works have developed and validated a general closed-form analytical model of this phenomenon that describes the load sharing characteristics of epicyclic gear sets from three to six planets at any torque level. More recently, this analytical model has been reformulated to include the effects of gravity, carrier bearing clearance, and external applied moments, all of which are relevant to most gearboxes and their mounting configuration in horizontal-axis wind turbines. In this paper, the reformulated model is compared to load measurements collected from two similar wind turbine gearboxes with three-planet epicyclic gear sets. The resulting load sharing values are also compared to the mesh load factor requirements in the AGMA 6006 and IEC 61400-4 wind turbine gearbox design standards. Load sharing factors as high as 1.16 at extreme rotor moments and 1.08 with no moment were measured for the gearbox with cylindrical roller bearings, but the load sharing factor remained below 1.10 for the gearbox with tapered roller bearings The results show that in the wind turbine application, load sharing is not equal - even for three-planet systems with a floating central member because of the effects of gravity, rotor moments, and the resulting relative motions among the epicyclic gear components within the carrier bearing clearance.

closed-form analytical model↗

Carbon sequestration and nitrogen and phosphorus accumulation in a freshwater, estuarine marsh: Effects of microtopography and nutrient loads

Wetlands are widely recognized as nutrient sinks for their ability to remove nutrients in runoff and retain them in soils. This is a valuable service, especially in agricultural watersheds, making nutrient removal one of the main goals in many wetland creation and restoration projects. However, incorporating nutrient management considerations requires site-level assessments, the scale at which wetland creation and restoration occur. Here we studied how carbon (C) sequestration, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) accumulation vary at different microtopographic levels and locations within a freshwater, estuarine marsh on the coast of Lake Erie. We further explored links between C sequestration, and N and P accumulation in recent years, and orthophosphate ($PO_{4}^{3-}$), ammonium ($NH_{4}^{+}$), and nitrate ($NO_{3}^{-}$) concentrations and loads. The rates of C sequestration and N accumulation were relatively lower at spots of intermediate depth and locations closer to the wetland’s main channel. P accumulation was highest at deep spots but did not differ among locations based on distance from the channel. Empirical models showed that nitrate load is the most important variable explaining the variability in C, N, and P sequestration/accumulation (r2 = 0.57, 0.61, and 0.32, respectively) and that the relationship between inorganic nutrient loads and accumulation was negative. Our findings suggest that including microtopographic relief features in wetland creation and design, especially deeper spots, is critical to enhancing wetland ecosystems’ C, N, and P sinking capacity. Also, that upstream nitrate management should be a priority to increase benefits from C sequestration and long-term N and P accumulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Robustness of Spectrogram Classifiers with Neural Stochastic Differential Equations

Signal analysis and classification is fraught with high levels of noise and perturbation. Computer-vision-based deep learning models applied to spectrograms have proven useful in the field of signal classification and detection; however, these methods aren't designed to handle the low signal-to-noise ratios inherent within non-vision signal processing tasks. While they are powerful, they are currently not the method of choice in the inherently noisy and dynamic critical infrastructure domain, such as smart-grid sensing, anomaly detection, and non-intrusive load monitoring. Currently, these models can be brittle, which makes them susceptible to noisy input. This also means they have sub-optimal stability of explanation outputs. Experts and technicians using these models to make decisions in real world scenarios need assurance that a model is performing as it is supposed to. The classification or prediction outputs it generates should be sound and grounded, not likely to change in the presence of shifting noise landscapes. In this work, we explore the idea of Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (NSDE's) to improve the robustness of models trained to classify time series data and the effect of NSDE's on the explainability of outputs. We then test the effectiveness of these approaches by applying them to a non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) dataset that consists of simulated harmonic signals injected into a real building.

Brogan, Joel↗

Theoretical Yields for 188 W Production in the High Flux Isotope Reactor

Accurately predicting the production yield of 188 W and 191 Os from enriched 186W metal rings irradiated in HFIR is not straightforward. Two key factors can lead to significant uncertainty or inaccuracy in yield predictions: The effect of neutron flux depression in the dense tungsten metal target. Inaccuracy of the currently published 187 W thermal neutron absorption cross section. This manuscript reports the calculated yields for 188 W, 191 Os, and total osmium mass for the NM-888 target that was irradiated in High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Cycles 487 and 488. Three different yield calculation methods were used and are described herein. The results are presented in terms of total yield and in terms of yield per target mass. This allows for an approximate estimation of yields for future targets of varying mass loading but with similar irradiation profiles. For more accurate prediction yields, target-specific models that account for target loading, target positioning within HFIR, and accurate HFIR cycle data are required.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

MG-RAVENS: Working Group Update [Slides]

Problem Statement: Users in industry, who are planning the deployment and operation of microgrids, face a multi-domain problem that requires multiple engineering tools to solve; Existing tools lack interoperability, which requires tedious recreation and conversion of equipment models, and creates opportunities for errors in translation or through inconsistent assumptions; Microgrid modelers waste time reinventing the wheel because it is challenging to reuse existing distribution, load, generation, power flow, optimization models for new use cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Geothermal Direct-Use Applications for the District Energy System in Bucharest, Romania

The city of Bucharest, Romania, hosts the second-largest district energy system (DES) in the world. Geothermal resources can be considered as a supplementary heat source to support the demand for domestic hot water and space heating in the winter and shoulder seasons. The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) has conducted a study that considers geothermal energy to serve a fraction of the existing district heating network operated by Electrocentrale Bucure?ti (ELCEN), the utility operating the DES. Lower Cretaceous and Jurassic limestones make up the main geothermal aquifer underlying Bucharest, which hosts temperatures suitable for district heating (up to 90 degrees C to the north of the city). Anomalous geothermal gradients have been observed to the north of the city, where a pumped well has produced 82 degrees C brine at the wellhead to feed the Therme Bucharest Spa. An anomalous gradient has also been reported to the southeast of the city (35 degrees C/km). NLR modeled the building heating loads of a small portion of the DES (a block of nine prototypical buildings) in its Urban Renewable Building and Neighborhood Optimization (URBANopt ) platform. To simulate meeting a baseload benchmark of 20 MWth deliverable to a small portion of the DES, the NLR team used GEOPHIRES to model production scenarios for (1) hydrothermal systems coupled with heat pumps targeting the main geothermal aquifer in the north, (2) enhanced geothermal systems targeting hot dry rock in the southeast, and (3) huff-and-puff systems targeting a gradient of 25 degrees C/km. Finally, NLR conducted a high-level sensitivity study around the techno-economics of these systems. The outcomes of this work indicate that hot dry rock geothermal resources that can deliver at least 90 degrees C hot water to the Geothermal District Energy System (GeoDES) offer a possible solution for supplemental geothermal heat delivered to the existing DES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The Impact of Behind-the-Meter Heterogeneous Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Grids: Preprint

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid brings new challenges and opportunities for utility grid operations. With the rapid deployment of DERs, there is emerging interest in integrating these controllable devices with utility operations at all levels for monitoring and management. Different types of DERs such as Photovoltaics (PV), energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs), etc. have varying effects on the grid based on how and where they are deployed. Again, the DER deployment and its impact are network-dependent, while the traditional electric grids were not designed to host DERs. To understand the challenges with increasing behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs and to identify the needs in deploying advanced controls, a comprehensive grid impact study is indispensable. This paper investigates the impacts of integrating a mix of DERs in the utility distribution network in Colorado, U.S. Firstly, BTM DERs at the residential scale including distributed PV; battery energy storage systems (BESS); heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load; electric water heater (EWH) load; and EVs are modeled. The impacts of integrating these resources on the distribution network are evaluated by conducting time-series simulations for different scenarios considering different days to capture the worst-case conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to generate the realistic EV charging profile. The voltage issues, substation transformer loadings, and critical nodes in the network are identified with the incorporation of uncoordinated EV charging loads and other DER in the network. This analysis helps visualize the DER impact on the grid, identify the challenges, and provides an insight into the new distribution management and control needs to enable reliable and resilient distribution grid operations. Additionally, further analysis is performed to estimate the daily residential electricity cost with the inclusion of DERs under time-of-use tariffs. The result shows the daily residential electricity cost reduced by 20:7% on average with DERs compared to the case without DERs.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

CHIPFoam Modification to Allow for Modelling SWIFT Foams

SWIFT (Silicon-water in Familiar Template) foams are silicone foams that have a continuous porosity without having any obvious spherical or ellipsoidal pore shapes. Like other foamed rubber, SWIFT foams can experience large reversible deformations. Because of their microstructure, SWIFT foams have a stiffering behavior in compression that is very abrupt compared to most other foamed rubbers. Work by Benedikt reported by Miller showed that fitting compressive test data with the CHIPFoam model in its current form is impractical and inaccurate. This report describes an extension made to CHIPFoam to allow the modeling of SWIFT foams. While the extension allows the modeling of SWIFT foams, it also extends the range of porosity of foams that can be modelled with CHIPFoam to include very high porosity (>99%) foamed rubber. The previous model was unstable for porosities greater than 70%. The changes made to CHIPFoam include the introduction of a critical porosity at which the compressible Danielsson strain energy function that couples volumetric and deviatoric mechanical behavior begins to increase with compression. This new feature also required the introduction of a third term in the multiplicative decomposition of the relative volume, J . The organization of this report is described here. The first section, SWIFT Foam Structure and Mechanical Behavior, describes the structure of SWIFT foams as contrasted to other foamed rubbers. It also contrasts the mechanical behavior of SWIFT foams to other more traditional foamed rubbers. The second section, CHIPFoam Modifications, describes the specific modifications done to be able to modify the delayed rapid compressive stiffening seen in SWIFT foams. The third section, Results, demonstrates the use of the modified model to fit compressive loading response data from a SWIFT foam sample. The fourth section, Conclusions and Further Work, puts the work in perspective and presents likely further work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Unsteady aerodynamic loads on pitching aerofoils represented by Gaussian body force distributions

The actuator line model (ALM) is an approach commonly used to represent lifting and dragging devices like wings and blades in large-eddy simulations (LES). The crux of the ALM is the projection of the actuator point forces onto the LES grid by means of a Gaussian regularisation kernel. The minimum width of the kernel is constrained by the grid size; however, for most practical applications like LES of wind turbines, this value is an order of magnitude larger than the optimal value that maximises accuracy. This discrepancy motivated the development of corrections for the actuator line, which, however, neglect the effect of unsteady spanwise shed vorticity. In this work we develop a model for the impact of spanwise shed vorticity on the unsteady loading of an aerofoil modelled as a Gaussian body force distribution, where the model is applicable within the regime of unsteady attached flow. The model solution is derived both in the time and frequency domain and features an explicit dependence on the Gaussian kernel width. We verify the model with ALM-LES for both pitch steps and periodic pitching. The model solution is compared with Theodorsen theory and validated with both computational fluid dynamics using body fitted grids and experiment. It is concluded that the optimal kernel width for unsteady aerodynamics is approximately 40 % of the chord. The ALM is able to predict the magnitude of the unsteady loading up to a reduced frequency of 𝑘 ≈ 0.2.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Privacy Preserving Model-Free Optimization and Control Framework for Demand Response from Residential Thermal Loads

We consider the problem of optimizing the cost of procuring electricity for a large collection of homes managed by a load serving entity, by pre-cooling or pre-heating the thermal inertial loads in the homes to avoid procuring power during periods of peak electricity pricing. We would like to accomplish this objective in a completely privacy-preserving and model-free manner, that is, without direct access to the state variables (temperatures or power consumption) or the dynamical models (thermal characteristics) of individual homes, while guaranteeing personal comfort constraints of the consumers. We propose a two-stage optimization and control framework to address this problem. In the first stage, we use a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to predict hourly electricity prices, based on historical pricing data and weather forecasts. Given the hourly price forecast and thermal models of the homes, the problem of designing an optimal power consumption trajectory that minimizes the total electricity procurement cost for the collection of thermal loads can be formulated as a large-scale integer program (with millions of variables) due to the on-off cyclical dynamics of such loads. We provide a simple heuristic relaxation to make this large-scale optimization problem model-free and computationally tractable. In the second stage, we translate the results of this optimization problem into distributed open-loop control laws that can be implemented at individual homes without measuring or estimating their state variables, while simultaneously ensuring consumer comfort constraints. We demonstrate the performance of this approach on a large-scale test case comprising of 500 homes in the Houston area and benchmark its performance against a direct model-based optimization and control solution.

Sivaranjani, S.↗

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗