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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30

Online Multi-Modal Learning and Adaptive Information Trajectory Planning for Autonomous Exploration

In robotic information gathering missions, scientists are typically interested in understanding variables which require proxy measurements from specialized sensor suites to estimate. However, energy and time constraints limit how often these sensors can be used in a mission. Robots are also equipped with cheaper to use navigation sensors such as cameras. In this paper, we explore a challenging planning problem in which a robot is required to learn about a scientific variable of interest in an initially unknown environment by planning informative paths and deciding when and where to use its sensors. To tackle this we present two innovations: a Bayesian generative model framework to automatically learn correlations between expensive science sensors and cheaper to use navigation sensors online, and a sampling based approach to plan for multiple sensors while handling long horizons and budget constraints. Our approach does not grow in complexity with data and is anytime making it highly applicable to field robotics. We tested our approach extensively in simulation and validated it with real data collected during the 2014 Mojave Volatiles Prospector Mission. Our planning algorithm performs statistically significantly better than myopic approaches and at least as well as a coverage-based algorithm in an initially unknown environment while having added advantages of being able to exploit prior knowledge and handle other intricacies of the real world without further algorithmic modifications.

learning↗

Modeling to Mars: a NASA Model Based Systems Engineering Pathfinder Effort

The NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) Systems Engineering (SE) Technical Discipline Team (TDT) initiated the Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Pathfinder effort in FY16. The goals and objectives of the MBSE Pathfinder include developing and advancing MBSE capability across NASA, applying MBSE to real NASA issues, and capturing issues and opportunities surrounding MBSE. The Pathfinder effort consisted of four teams, with each team addressing a particular focus area. This paper focuses on Pathfinder team 1 with the focus area of architectures and mission campaigns. These efforts covered the timeframe of February 2016 through September 2016. The team was comprised of eight team members from seven NASA Centers (Glenn Research Center, Langley Research Center, Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center IV&V Facility, Johnson Space Center, Marshall Space Flight Center, and Stennis Space Center). Collectively, the team had varying levels of knowledge, skills and expertise in systems engineering and MBSE. The team applied their existing and newly acquired system modeling knowledge and expertise to develop modeling products for a campaign (Program) of crew and cargo missions (Projects) to establish a human presence on Mars utilizing In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). Pathfinder team 1 developed a subset of modeling products that are required for a Program System Requirement Review (SRR)/System Design Review (SDR) and Project Mission Concept Review (MCR)/SRR as defined in NASA Procedural Requirements. Additionally, Team 1 was able to perform and demonstrate some trades and constraint analyses. At the end of these efforts, over twenty lessons learned and recommended next steps have been identified.

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa↗

Challenges for and Pathways Toward Solid-State Batteries

Solid-state batteries utilizing lithium metal anodes have the potential to enable batteries with a specific energy of >500 Wh/kg and an energy density of >1,500 Wh/L for thousands of cycles. When optimized they will improve the energy efficiency, operating temperature range, sustainability, and safety at a lower cost compared to projections for advanced Li-ion batteries. This improved performance is critical for the widespread adoption of electric vehicles and may enable future applications such as electric aviation. Expectations for solid-state batteries are high, there are significant materials and processing challenges that need to be overcome. Some of these challenges are well known; others are more subtle and are just becoming known. The challenges and their solutions must be clearly identified to realize high-energy solid-state Li metal batteries. In the United States, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funds the majority of energy storage research and development, including solid state battery research. Web of Science publication analysis shows that worldwide DOE is second largest funder. Work on solid state batteries is distributed across different arms of DOE and is coordinated at headquarters to ensure a broad national portfolio for advanced batteries, including lithium batteries and solid-state battery devices. We note that university and national laboratory researchers in the US with a long-standing interest in solid state batteries is a small, integrated community with recognized impact for publications, patents and startup companies. The opportunity for this group to engage for research with international colleagues is growing, fostered by periodic bilateral meetings supported by DOE and by the recent joint US German research program for lithium battery interface studies. These are valuable opportunities to speed solid-state battery development. The ORNL led virtual workshop, overviewed here, confirms the community’s shared vision of the exciting advances, opportunities, and challenges. Further, we are seeing that this workshop has spawned several new informal collaborations and draft proposals. This encourages us to propose future discussion. On May 11, 2020, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) hosted a 6-hour, on-line national workshop to discuss recent advances and most the prominent obstacles to realizing solid-state Li metal batteries. The workshop included more than 30+ experts from national laboratories, universities, and companies, all of whom have worked on solid-state batteries for multiple years. The participants shared recent advances, many not yet in print, illustrating that the community has gained significant new insights for solid-state Li battery materials over the last 5 years. In this report, the major outcomes of the workshop are organized to identify the gaps in our scientific knowledge for four core materials science areas: (1) Li metal anodes, (2) the solid electrolyte in contact with Li metal, (3) active cathode materials and solid-state composite cathodes, and (4) solid electrolytes. Illustrative examples and discussions are reported with the more comprehensive issues in the report. Discussion of additional challenges related to processing of solid-state battery materials and to the designs and architectures for mechanically robust, long-lived batteries received less attention due to time constraints. These are good themes for deeper discussion at a follow-on workshop, where a complete list of critical research topics can be identified.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

From chromatin to crop: epigenetic innovations in bioenergy systems

Energy crops encompass a diverse array of plant species cultivated primarily as a source of biomass for energy generation and biofuel production. As such, they play a pivotal role in the transition to sustainable energy systems. However, their productivity is often limited by environmental stresses, nutrient availability, and the need for optimized yield. While traditional breeding and genetic engineering have driven improvements, challenges such as narrow genetic diversity, long development cycles, trait instability, and unexpected gene interactions remain. Epigenetics offers a largely untapped opportunity to overcome these constraints by regulating gene expression through mechanisms that are dynamic, finely tuned, and responsive to environmental and developmental cues. Epigenetic modifications including DNA methylation, histone post-translational changes, and small non-coding RNAs influence nearly all aspects of plant development and physiology, including traits central to bioenergy crops. While these mechanisms are well characterized in model species such as Arabidopsis thaliana, they remain underexplored in many purpose-grown energy crops. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge of epigenetic regulation in bioenergy species, explores how these mechanisms can be leveraged to enhance crop resilience and productivity, and identifies gaps in our understanding. By characterizing epigenetic mechanisms and harnessing epigenetic variation, we can expand the toolkit for developing resilient, high-yielding bioenergy crops to meet future environmental and energy demands.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Accretion disks in low-mass X-ray binaries

In this paper we review recent developments in our knowledge of accretion disks in low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). We discuss some common behavior between the disks in cataclysmic variables and LMXBs, especially among those systems with high mass ratios. We consider ellipsoidal variability of soft X-ray transients (SXTs: transient LMXBs) in quiescence, and discuss the evidence for transient disk contamination of the light curves of these objects. We then show how optical photometry of SXTs in both outburst and quiescence can place useful constraints on the mass of the compact object in these binaries. Finally we present new results on the accretion disk structures of AC 211 in M15 and X 1916-05. We show that considerable evidence now exists for sizable disk structure displaced about 180 deg from the secondary: the origin of this structure is as yet unknown.

Callanan, Paul J.↗

LCTV Holographic Imaging

Astronauts are required to interface with complex systems that require sophisticated displays to communicate effectively. Lightweight, head-mounted real-time displays that present holographic images for comfortable viewing may be the ideal solution. We describe an implementation of a liquid crystal television (LCTV) as a spatial light modulator (SLM) for the display of holograms. The implementation required the solution of a complex set of problems. These include field calculations, determination of the LCTV-SLM complex transmittance characteristics and a precise knowledge of the signal mapping between the LCTV and frame grabbing board that controls it. Realizing the hologram is further complicated by the coupling that occurs between the phase and amplitude in the LCTV transmittance. A single drive signal (a gray level signal from a framegrabber) determines both amplitude and phase. Since they are not independently controllable (as is true in the ideal SLM) one must deal with the problem of optimizing (in some sense) the hologram based on this constraint. Solutions for the above problems have been found. An algorithm has been for field calculations that uses an efficient outer product formulation. Juday's MEDOF 7 (Minimum Euclidean Distance Optimal Filter) algorithm used for originally for filter calculations has been successfully adapted to handle metrics appropriate for holography. This has solved the problem of optimizing the hologram to the constraints imposed by coupling. Two laboratory methods have been developed for determining an accurate mapping of framegrabber pixels to LCTV pixels. A friendly software system has been developed that integrates the hologram calculation and realization process using a simple set of instructions. The computer code and all the laboratory measurement techniques determining SLM parameters have been proven with the production of a high quality test image.

Knopp, Jerome↗

Differentiable modelling to unify machine learning and physical models for geosciences

Process-based modelling offers interpretability and physical consistency in many domains of geosciences but struggles to leverage large datasets efficiently. Machine-learning methods, especially deep networks, have strong predictive skills yet are unable to answer specific scientific questions. Here, in this Perspective, we explore differentiable modelling as a pathway to dissolve the perceived barrier between process-based modelling and machine learning in the geosciences and demonstrate its potential with examples from hydrological modelling. ‘Differentiable’ refers to accurately and efficiently calculating gradients with respect to model variables or parameters, enabling the discovery of high-dimensional unknown relationships. Differentiable modelling involves connecting (flexible amounts of) prior physical knowledge to neural networks, pushing the boundary of physics-informed machine learning. It offers better interpretability, generalizability, and extrapolation capabilities than purely data-driven machine learning, achieving a similar level of accuracy while requiring less training data. Additionally, the performance and efficiency of differentiable models scale well with increasing data volumes. Under data-scarce scenarios, differentiable models have outperformed machine-learning models in producing short-term dynamics and decadal-scale trends owing to the imposed physical constraints. Differentiable modelling approaches are primed to enable geoscientists to ask questions, test hypotheses, and discover unrecognized physical relationships. Future work should address computational challenges, reduce uncertainty, and verify the physical significance of outputs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Infrared-Fused Vision-Based Thermoregulation Performance Estimation for Personal Thermal Comfort-Driven HVAC System Controls

Thermal comfort is one of the primary factors influencing occupant health, well-being, and productivity in buildings. Existing thermal comfort systems require occupants to frequently communicate their comfort vote via a survey which is impractical as a long-term solution. Here, we present a novel thermal infrared-fused computer vision sensing method to capture thermoregulation performance in a non-intrusive and non-invasive manner. In this method, we align thermal and visible images, detect facial segments (i.e., nose, eyes, face boundary), and accordingly read the temperatures from the appropriate coordinates in the thermal image. We focus on the human face since it is often clearly visible to cameras and is not merged into a hot background (unlike hands). We use a regularized Gaussian Mixture model to track the thermoregulation changes over time and apply a heuristic algorithm to extract hot and cold indices. We present a personalized and a generalized comfort modeling method, selected based on the availability of the occupant historical indices measurements in a neutral environment, and use the time-series of the hot and cold indices to define corrections to HVAC system operations in the form of setpoint constraints. To evaluate the efficacy of our proposed approach in responding to thermal stimuli, we designed a series of controlled experiments to simulate exposure to cold and hot environments. While applying personalized modeling showed an acceptable average accuracy of 91.3%, the generalized model’s average accuracy was only 65.2%. This shows the importance of having access to physiological records in modeling and assessing comfort. We also found that individual differences should be considered in selecting the cooling and heating rates when some knowledge of the occupant’s overall thermal preference is available.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

VLBI observations of a complete sample of radio galaxies. 4: The radio galaxies NGC 2484, 3C 109, and 3C 382

We present here new Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) observations of one Fanaroff and Riley (F-R) I radio galaxy (NGC 2484) and two broad-line F-R II radio galaxies (3C 109 and 3C 382). For 3C 109 new Very Large Array (VLA) maps are also shown. These sources belong to a complete sample of radio galaxies under study for a better knowledge of their structures at parsec resolution. The parsec structure of these three objects is very similar: asymmetric emission, which we interpret as the core plus a one-side jet. The parsec-scale jet is always on the same side of the main kiloparsec-scale jet. The limit on the jet to counterjet brightness ratio, the ratio of the core radio power to the total radio power and the synchrotron-self Compton model allow us to derive some constraints on the jet velocity and orientation with respect to the line of sight. From these data and from those published on two other sources of our sample, we suggest that parsec-scale jets are relativistic in both F-R I and F-R II radio galaxies and that parsec scale properties in F-R I and F-R II radio galaxies are very similar despite the large difference between these two classes of radio galaxies on the kiloparsec scale.

Giovannini, G.↗

A Hybrid Procedural/Deductive Executive for Autonomous Spacecraft

The New Millennium Remote Agent (NMRA) will be the first AI system to control an actual spacecraft. The spacecraft domain places a strong premium on autonomy and requires dynamic recoveries and robust concurrent execution, all in the presence of tight real-time deadlines, changing goals, scarce resource constraints, and a wide variety of possible failures. To achieve this level of execution robustness, we have integrated a procedural executive based on generic procedures with a deductive model-based executive. A procedural executive provides sophisticated control constructs such as loops, parallel activity, locks, and synchronization which are used for robust schedule execution, hierarchical task decomposition, and routine configuration management. A deductive executive provides algorithms for sophisticated state inference and optimal failure recover), planning. The integrated executive enables designers to code knowledge via a combination of procedures and declarative models, yielding a rich modeling capability suitable to the challenges of real spacecraft control. The interface between the two executives ensures both that recovery sequences are smoothly merged into high-level schedule execution and that a high degree of reactivity is retained to effectively handle additional failures during recovery.

Pell, Barney↗

Spaceflight Operations Services Grid Prototype

NASA over the years has developed many types of technologies and conducted various types of science resulting in numerous variations of operations, data and applications. For example, operations range from deep space projects managed by JPL, Saturn and Shuttle operations managed from JSC and KSC, ISS science operations managed from MSFC and numerous low earth orbit satellites managed from GSFC that are varied and intrinsically different but require many of the same types of services to fulfill their missions. Also, large data sets (databases) of Shuttle flight data, solar system projects and earth observing data exist which because of their varied and sometimes outdated technologies are not and have not been fully examined for additional information and knowledge. Many of the applications/systems supporting operational services e.g. voice, video, telemetry and commanding, are outdated and obsolete. The vast amounts of data are located in various formats, at various locations and range over many years. The ability to conduct unified space operations, access disparate data sets and to develop systems and services that can provide operational services does not currently exist in any useful form. In addition, adding new services to existing operations is generally expensive and with the current budget constraints not feasible on any broad level of implementation. To understand these services a discussion of each one follows. The Spaceflight User-based Services are those services required to conduct space flight operations. Grid Services are those Grid services that will be used to overcome, through middleware software, some or all the problems that currently exists. In addition, Network Services will be discussed briefly. Network Services are crucial to any type of remedy and are evolving adequately to support any technology currently in development.

Bradford, Robert N.↗

MACCS User Guide (V.5.0)

MACCS is used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and various national and international organizations for probabilistic consequence analysis of nuclear power accidents. This user guide is intended to assist analysts in understanding the MACCS/MACCS-UI User Interface (UI) model and to provide information regarding the code. This user guide version describes MACCS Version 5.0, model history, explains how to set up and execute a problem, and informs the user of the definition of various input parameters and any constraints placed on those parameters. This report is part of a series of reports documenting MACCS. Other reports include the MACCS Theory Manual, MACCS Verification Report, Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS, as well as documentation for preprocessor codes including SecPop, MelMACCS, and COMIDA2.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of the Space Operations Incident Reporting Tool (SOIRT)

The space operations incident reporting tool (SOIRT) is an instrument used to record information about an anomaly occurring during flight which may have been due to insufficient and/or inappropriate application of human factors knowledge. We originally developed the SOIRT form after researching other incident reporting systems of this type. We modified the form after performing several in-house reviews and a pilot test to access usability. Finally, crew members from Space Shuttle flights participated in a usability test of the tool after their missions. Since the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) currently has no system for continuous collection of this type of information, the SOIRT was developed to report issues such as reach envelope constraints, control operation difficulties, and vision impairments. However, if the SOIRT were to become a formal NASA process, information from crew members could be collected in a database and made available to individuals responsible for improving in-flight safety and productivity. Potential benefits include documentation to justify the redesign or development of new equipment/systems, provide the mission planners with a method for identifying past incidents, justify the development of timelines and mission scenarios, and require the creation of more appropriate work/rest cycles.

Minton, Jacquie↗

Peer-to-Peer Planning for Space Mission Control

Planning and scheduling for space operations entails the development of applications that embed intimate domain knowledge of distinct areas of mission control, while allowing for significant collaboration among them. The separation is useful because of differences in the planning problem, solution methods, and frequencies of replanning that arise in the different disciplines. For example, planning the activities of human spaceflight crews requires some reasoning about all spacecraft resources at timescales of minutes or seconds, and is subject to considerable volatility. Detailed power planning requires managing the complex interplay of power consumption and production, involves very different classes of constraints and preferences, but once plans are generated they are relatively stable.

Barreiro, Javier↗

Estimates of Southern Hemispheric Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes across Observations, Reanalyses, and Kilometer-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Abstract Gravity waves (GWs) are among the key drivers of the meridional overturning circulation in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. Their representation in climate models suffers from insufficient resolution and limited observational constraints on their parameterizations. This obscures assessments of middle atmospheric circulation changes in a changing climate. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of stratospheric GW activity above and downstream of the Andes from 1 to 15 August 2019, with special focus on GW representation ranging from an unprecedented kilometer-scale global forecast model (1.4 km ECMWF IFS), ground-based Rayleigh lidar (CORAL) observations, modern reanalysis (ERA5), to a coarse-resolution climate model (EMAC). Resolved vertical flux of zonal GW momentum (GWMF) is found to be stronger by a factor of at least 2–2.5 in IFS compared to ERA5. Compared to resolved GWMF in IFS, parameterizations in ERA5 and EMAC continue to inaccurately generate excessive GWMF poleward of 60°S, yielding prominent differences between resolved and parameterized GWMFs. A like-to-like validation of GW profiles in IFS and ERA5 reveals similar wave structures. Still, even at ∼1 km resolution, the resolved waves in IFS are weaker than those observed by lidar. Further, GWMF estimates across datasets reveal that temperature-based proxies, based on midfrequency approximations for linear GWs, overestimate GWMF due to simplifications and uncertainties in GW wavelength estimation from data. Overall, the analysis provides GWMF benchmarks for parameterization validation and calls for three-dimensional GW parameterizations, better upper-boundary treatment, and vertical resolution increases commensurate with increases in horizontal resolution in models, for a more realistic GW analysis. Significance Statement Gravity wave–induced momentum forcing forms a key component of the middle atmospheric circulation. However, complete knowledge of gravity waves, their atmospheric effects, and their long-term trends are obscured due to limited global observations, and the inability of current climate models to fully resolve them. This study combines a kilometer-scale forecast model, modern reanalysis, and a coarse-resolution climate model to first compare the resolved and parameterized momentum fluxes by gravity waves generated over the Andes, and then evaluate the fluxes using a state-of-the-art ground-based Rayleigh lidar. Our analysis reveals shortcomings in current model parameterizations of gravity waves in the middle atmosphere and highlights the sensitivity of the estimated flux to the formulation used.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

EMSL Community Science Campaign Meeting: Critical Minerals and Materials - Rhizo Critical Campaign Breakout Session Report Summary

The “Critical Minerals Biogeochemistry in the Rhizosphere – Ultramafic Soils (Rhizo Critical)” campaign breakout (BO) session was organized to identify major knowledge gaps and fundamental research needs in rhizosphere microbiology and geochemistry that, if addressed, could transform our ability to recover critical minerals from ultramafic soil systems. We sought to identify significant challenges that must be surmounted in the pursuit of deeper science knowledge. Our ultimate goal is to understand this landscape well enough to identify and prioritize opportunities for EMSL to make the greatest impact with Environmental Transformations and Interactions (ETI) science area research campaigns focused on the biogeochemical processes controlling the behavior of critical minerals and materials in the rhizosphere. The increasing demand for critical materials and minerals (CMM) in the U.S. has heightened interest in low-grade ores with much attention on ultramafic soils, which contain valuable metals such as nickel (Ni), chromium (Cr), manganese, cobalt (Co), and copper (Lee et al., 2025; DOE CMM Report, 2023) used in advanced battery, magnet, wiring and wind turbines, and stainless steel technologies. Metal hyperaccumulating plants grown in ultramafic soils can extract economically valuable concentrations of CMMs through the process of phytomining. This technology has evolved from phytoremediation, which involves using plants to cleanse contaminated environments by removing, detoxifying, or stabilizing pollutants like metals and organic compounds. Hyperaccumulator plants are capable of storing metals in their living tissues at concentrations hundreds to thousands of times higher than those found in 'normal' plants. For instance, while the average concentration of Ni in the dry matter of plants growing in typical soils is usually less than 5 µg g?¹, Ni hyperaccumulation is defined by concentrations exceeding 1,000 µg g?¹ (Corzo Remigio et al., 2020; Reeves et al., 2018). Phytomining research has primarily focused on Ni (Rylott and van der Ent, 2025), for which the U.S. has very limited conventional mines in operation. Most soils typically contain Ni concentrations ranging from 7 to 50 mg kg-1, whereas serpentine soils exhibit significantly higher levels, with Ni content often ranging between 700 and 8,000 mg kg-1 (Sobczyk et al., 2017). While more than 500 plant species in over 50 different families have been identified as Ni hyperaccumulators (Kidd et al., 2018), Ni phytomining (and phytominng in general) remains largely untested because most studies are short-term, small-scale, and conducted under simplified or artificially enriched conditions, so they fail to capture the low metal concentrations, environmental variability, and management constraints that would be needed for a field-scale demonstration. Few hyperaccumulator species have been validated as true “metal crops,” and their biomass production, stress tolerance, and rooting characteristics are usually too poor to yield economically meaningful metal outputs. Critically, the basic mechanisms of metal uptake, transport, and sequestration, especially as shaped by belowground processes such as root exudation, rhizosphere chemistry, and root–microbe interactions that control metal mobility and bioavailability (Montreemuk et al., 2023; Kidd et al., 2018; Durand et al., 2023; Alford et al., 2010), are still only partially understood, and downstream metal recovery from biomass is rarely optimized. Because these limitations stem from gaps in fundamental knowledge rather than from a failure of the concept itself (Rylott and van der Ent, 2025; van der Ent et al., 2015), there is a strong need for basic science that dissects plant metal homeostasis, rhizosphere and microbial processes, and their integration with soil chemistry and process engineering to design more robust, scalable phytomining systems.

Ahkami, Amirhossein↗

A scanning radar altimeter for mapping continental topography

Topographic information constitutes a fundamental data set for the Earth sciences. In the geological and geophysical sciences, topography combined with gravitational information provides an important constraint on the structure and rheologic properties of the crust and lithosphere. Detailed topography data can also be used to map offsets associated with faulting and to reveal the effects of tectonic deformation. In the polar regions, elevation data form a crucial but as yet largely unavailable resource for studying ice sheet mass balance and ice flow dynamics. The vast Antarctic ice sheet is the largest fresh water reservoir on Earth and is an important influence on ocean circulation and global climate. However, our knowledge of its stability is so limited that we cannot even specify whether the Antarctic ice sheet is growing or shrinking. It is clear that there is need for high quality global topography data. A summary of potential applications with their resolution requirements is shown.

Dixon, T. H.↗

Constraining Arctic Climate Projections of Wintertime Warming With Surface Turbulent Flux Observations and Representation of Surface-Atmosphere Coupling

The drivers of rapid Arctic climate change—record sea ice loss, warming SSTs, and a lengthening of the sea ice melt season—compel us to understand how this complex system operates and use this knowledge to enhance Arctic predictability. Changing energy flows sparked by sea ice decline, spotlight atmosphere-surface coupling processes as central to Arctic system function and its climate change response. Despite this, the representation of surface turbulent flux parameterizations in models has not kept pace with our understanding. The large uncertainty in Arctic climate change projections, the central role of atmosphere-surface coupling, and the large discrepancy in model representation of surface turbulent fluxes indicates that these processes may serve as useful observational constraints on projected Arctic climate change. This possibility requires an evaluation of surface turbulent fluxes and their sensitivity to controlling factors (surface-air temperature and moisture differences, sea ice, and winds) within contemporary climate models (here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6). The influence of individual controlling factors and their interactions is diagnosed using a multi-linear regression approach. This evaluation is done for four sea ice loss regimes, determined from observational sea ice loss trends, to control for the confounding effects of natural variability between models and observations. The comparisons between satellite- and model-derived surface turbulent fluxes illustrate that while models capture the general sensitivity of surface turbulent fluxes to declining sea ice and to surface-air gradients of temperature and moisture, substantial mean state biases exist. Specifically, the central Arctic is too weak of a heat sink to the winter atmosphere compared to observations, with implications to the simulated atmospheric circulation variability and thermodynamic profiles. Models were found to be about 50% more efficient at turning an air-sea temperature gradient anomaly into a sensible heat flux anomaly relative to observations. Further, the influence of sea ice concentration on the sensible heat flux is underestimated in models compared to observations. The opposite is found for the latent heat flux variability in models; where the latent heat flux is too sensitive to a sea ice concentration anomaly. Lastly, the results suggest that present-day trends in sea ice retreat regions may serve as suitable observational constraints of projected Arctic warming.

turbulent fluxes↗