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At least 541 records · Page 30

Solar electric propulsion breadboard thrust subsystem test results.

Work providing a firm basis for building an engineering model thrust subsystem (TSS) is described. A 1500-hr functional demonstration test revealed the impact of each element on TSS integration, operation, and future development. The primary conclusions are: accurate and specific definition of interfaces is essential to a timely system integration program. In addition to normal operating requirements, this definition must include requirements for preflight checkout, self-protection of all interfaces, capability expansion, failure modes, maximum input power, interelement power losses, noise and transient sensitivity and production, packaging for vacuum, thermal control, electrical grounding, cabling, mounting, and handling. In any future design, each phase of the TSS operation (startup, throttling, switching, etc.) should be considered in detail to anticipate and account for possible in-flight variations in element characteristics and performance.

Masek, T. D.↗

The adaptation of vestibulo-spinal reflexes as a function of spaceflight and their relationship to space motion sickness

The hypothesis that exposure to prolonged free fall is a form of sensorymotor rearrangement rather than a direct change in otolith sensitivity or sensory compensation for a reduced otolith input is discussed. Data from Spacelab-1 experiment 1NS-104 are presented to support an otolith reinterpretation hypothesis. This experiment measured vestibulo-spinal reflex changes as a function of sustained free fall. Findings indicate that when a monosynaptic reflex (H-reflex), measured from the major postural muscles (soleus) is used, adaptation to space flight includes a change in how the central nervous system interprets a fall. In a normal gravity environment a sudden unexpected fall produces a potentiated H-reflex. After 7 days inflight, an equivalent fall does not potentiate the reflex. Postflight a greatly increased reflex is observed in those crewmen most susceptible to space motion sickness.

Reschke, M. F.↗

Pseudolog Digital-to-Analog Converter

Sensitivity decreases by 10 at beginning of each input decade. Method conceived to convert binary-coded data to suitable linear form for stripchart recording. Strip-chart recordings obtained from typical pressure readings in a vacuum system during pumpdown. In reading curve, BCD digital vacuum-gage output processed by analog-to-digital converter in such way that only reading digits (but not range) appear in output. In range and reading, range also converted to analog and placed as most significant digit.

Gooder, S. T.↗

Unstalled flutter stability predictions and comparisons to test data for a composite prop-fan model

The aeroelastic stability analyses for three graphite/epoxy composite Prop-Fan designs and post-test stability analysis for one of the designs, the SR-3C-X2 are presented. It was shown that Prop-Fan stability can be effectively analyzed using the F203 modal aeroelastic stability analysis developed at Hamilton Standard and that first mode torsion-bending coupling has a direct effect on blade stability. Positive first mode torsion-bending coupling is a destabilizing factor and the minimization of this parameter will increase Prop-Fan stability. It was also shown that Prop-Fan stability analysis using F203 is sensitive to the blade modal data used as input. Calculated blade modal properties varied significantly with the structural analysis used, and these variations are reflected in the F203 calculations.

Turnberg, J. E.↗

Global sensitivity analysis in control-augmented structural synthesis

In this paper, an integrated approach to structural/control design is proposed in which variables in both the passive (structural) and active (control) disciplines of an optimization process are changed simultaneously. The global sensitivity equation (GSE) method of Sobieszczanski-Sobieski (1988) is used to obtain the behavior sensitivity derivatives necessary for the linear approximations used in the parallel multidisciplinary synthesis problem. The GSE allows for the decoupling of large systems into smaller subsystems and thus makes it possible to determine the local sensitivities of each subsystem's outputs to its inputs and parameters. The advantages in using the GSE method are demonstrated using a finite-element representation of a truss structure equipped with active lateral displacement controllers, which is undergoing forced vibration.

Bloebaum, Christina L.↗

Experiment specific processing of residual acceleration data

To date, most Spacelab residual acceleration data collection projects have resulted in data bases that are overwhelming to the investigator of low-gravity experiments. This paper introduces a simple passive accelerometer system to measure low-frequency accelerations. Model responses for experiments using actual acceleration data are produced and correlations are made between experiment response and the accelerometer time history in order to test the idea that recorded acceleration data and experimental responses can be usefully correlated. Spacelab 3 accelerometer data are used as input to a variety of experiment models, and sensitivity limits are obtained for particular experiment classes. The modeling results are being used to create experiment-specific residual acceleration data processing schemes for interested investigators.

Rogers, Melissa J. B.↗

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗

NEXT Ion Propulsion System Configurations and Performance for Saturn System Exploration

The successes of the Cassini/Huygens mission have heightened interest to return to the Saturn system with focused robotic missions. The desire for a sustained presence at Titan, through a dedicated orbiter and in-situ vehicle, either a lander or aerobot, has resulted in definition of a Titan Explorer flagship mission as a high priority in the Solar System Exploration Roadmap. The discovery of active water vapor plumes erupting from the tiger stripes on the moon Enceladus has drawn the attention of the space science community. The NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) ion propulsion system is well suited to future missions to the Saturn system. NEXT is used within the inner solar system, in combination with a Venus or Earth gravity assist, to establish a fast transfer to the Saturn system. The NEXT system elements are accommodated in a separable Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) module, or are integrated into the main spacecraft bus, depending on the mission architecture and performance requirements. This paper defines a range of NEXT system configurations, from two to four thrusters, and the Saturn system performance capability provided. Delivered mass is assessed parametrically over total trip time to Saturn. Launch vehicle options, gravity assist options, and input power level are addressed to determine performance sensitivities. A simple two-thruster NEXT system, launched on an Atlas 551, can deliver a spacecraft mass of over 2400 kg on a transfer to Saturn. Similarly, a four-thruster system, launched on a Delta 4050 Heavy, delivers more than 4000 kg spacecraft mass. A SEP module conceptual design, for a two thruster string, 17 kW solar array, configuration is characterized.

Benson, Scott W.↗

An Analysis of Spacecraft Localization from Descent Image Data for Pinpoint Landing on Mars and other Cratered Bodies Data Acquisition

A pinpoint landing capability will be a critical component for many planned NASA missions to Mars and beyond. Implicit in the requirement is the ability to accurately localize the spacecraft with respect to the terrain during descent. In this paper, we present evidence that a vision-based solution using craters as landmarks is both practical and will meet the requirements of next generation missions. Our emphasis in this paper is on the feasibility of such a system in terms of (a) localization accuracy and (b) applicability to Martian terrain. We show that accuracy of well under 100 meters can be expected under suitable conditions. We also present a sensitivity analysis that makes an explicit connection between input data and robustness of our pose estimate. In addition, we present an analysis of the susceptibility of our technique to inherently ambiguous configurations of craters. We show that probability of failure due to such ambiguity is becoming increasingly small.

landforms↗

GC13I-0857: Designing a Frost Forecasting Service for Small Scale Tea Farmers in East Africa

Kenya is the third largest tea exporter in the world, producing 10% of the world's black tea. Sixty percent of this production occurs largely by small scale tea holders, with an average farm size of 1.04 acres, and an annual net income of $1,075. According to a recent evaluation, a typical frost event in the tea growing region causes about $200 dollars in losses which can be catastrophic for a small holder farm. A 72-hour frost forecast would provide these small-scale tea farmers with enough notice to reduce losses by approximately 80 USD annually. With this knowledge, SERVIR, a joint NASA-USAID initiative that brings Earth observations for improved decision making in developing countries, sought to design a frost monitoring and forecasting service that would provide farmers with enough lead time to react to and protect against a forecasted frost occurrence on their farm. SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa, through its implementing partner, the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), designed a service that included multiple stakeholder engagement events whereby stakeholders from the tea industry value chain were invited to share their experiences so that the exact needs and flow of information could be identified. This unique event allowed enabled the design of a service that fit the specifications of the stakeholders. The monitoring service component uses the MODIS Land Surface Temperature product to identify frost occurrences in near-real time. The prediction component, currently under testing, uses the 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m wind speed from a series of high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model runs over eastern Kenya as inputs into a frost prediction algorithm. Accuracy and sensitivity of the algorithm is being assessed with observations collected from the farmers using a smart phone app developed specifically to report frost occurrences, and from data shared through our partner network developed at the stakeholder engagement meeting. This presentation will illustrate the efficacy of our frost forecasting algorithm, and a way forward for incorporating these forecasts in a meaningful way to the key decision makers - the small-scale farmers of East Africa.

frost↗

Sensitivity of Impact Risk to Uncertainty in Asteroid Properties and Entry Parameters

A central challenge in evaluating the threat posed by asteroids striking Earth is the large amount of uncertainty in potential asteroid properties and entry parameters, which can vary the resulting ground damage and affected population by orders of magnitude. We are using our Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate the sensitivity of asteroid impact damage to these uncertainties. To assess the risk sensitivity, we alternately fix or vary the different input parameters and compare the damage distributions produced. In this study, we consider local ground damage from blast waves or thermal radiation for impactors 50-500m in diameter. The ongoing goal of this work is to help guide future efforts in asteroid characterization and model refinement by determining which properties most significantly affect the potential risk.

Wheeler, Lorien↗

A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color

The third primary production algorithm round robin (PPARR3) compares output from 24 models that estimate depth-integrated primary production from satellite measurements of ocean color, as well as seven general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with ecosystem or biogeochemical models. Here we compare the global primary production fields corresponding to eight months of 1998 and 1999 as estimated from common input fields of photosynthetically-available radiation (PAR), sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth, and chlorophyll concentration. We also quantify the sensitivity of the ocean-color-based models to perturbations in their input variables. The pair-wise correlation between ocean-color models was used to cluster them into groups or related output, which reflect the regions and environmental conditions under which they respond differently. The groups do not follow model complexity with regards to wavelength or depth dependence, though they are related to the manner in which temperature is used to parameterize photosynthesis. Global average PP varies by a factor of two between models. The models diverged the most for the Southern Ocean, SST under 10 C, and chlorophyll concentration exceeding 1mg Chlm-3. Based on the conditions under which the model results diverge most, we conclude that current ocean-color-based models are challenged by high-nutrient low-chlorophyll conditions, and extreme temperatures or chlorophyll concentrations. The GCM-based models predict comparable primary production to those based on ocean color: they estimate higher values in the Southern Ocean, at low SST, and in the equatorial band, while they estimate lower values in eutrophic regions (probably because the area of high chlorophyll concentrations is smaller in the GCMs). Further progress in primary production modeling requires improved understanding of the effect of temperature on photosynthesis and better parameterization of the maximum photosynthetic rate.

Yamanaka, Yasuhiro↗

UQ Toolkit v. 3.0

The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Toolkit is a software library for the characterization and propagation of uncertainties in computational models. This library provides Bayesian inference tools to infer uncertain model parameters, Bayesian compressive sensing methods for discovering sparse representations of high-dimensional input-output response surfaces, methods for constructing Karhunen-Loève representations of stochastic processes, and global sensitivity analysis tools used to compute Sobol indices in order to characterize the importance of uncertain inputs or the interactions between them. The basis for many of these methods relies on representing random variables with Polynomial Chaos expansions (PCEs). This library implements several spectral basis function types (e.g. Hermite basis functions in terms of Gaussian random variables or Legendre basis functions in terms of uniform random variables) that can be used to represent random variables with PCEs. For the propagation of uncertainty, tools are provided to propagate PCEs that describe the input uncertainty through the computational model using either intrusive methods (Galerkin projection of equations onto basis functions) or non-intrusive methods (perform deterministic operation at sampled values of the random values and project the obtained results onto basis functions).

Sargsyan, Khachik↗

Introduction to the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics Model

The U.S. Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office has a broad understanding of different conversion processes that produce bioproducts (chemicals derived from biomass feedstocks) and the market attributes of those processes. However, bioproducts have in many cases proven to be difficult to scale up to commercial production and bring to market, and there is currently a need for greater understanding around the possible successful scenarios for advancing the bioproducts industry. Insight into the myriad factors that impact the success of individual bioproducts and the growth of the bioproducts industry will enable bioproduct stakeholders to evaluate strategies for development and investment that could achieve the greatest impact. An understanding of these factors will also enable the identification of synergies between the bioproducts and biofuels industries that occur through shared learning and co-production. The Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) model explores questions such as the following: what are the factors that separate a successful, commercially produced bioproduct like succinic acid from one that never progresses beyond bench-scale lab research? Can these factors be influenced by stakeholders, and to what extent? The BTD model uses system dynamics to capture the impacts of investor decision-making, bioproduct techno-economics, and market factors during the early stages of bioproduct development. Key components of the BTD model include techno-economic benchmarks that inform the investor decision-making process, failures and setbacks in development and the resulting need for additional work, and the impacts of effective or ineffective management during each development stage. These factors and their interactions are tracked through bench-scale laboratory research, piloting, demoing, and the construction and operation of the first commercial-scale plant. Bioproduct development is linked to the biofuels industry through a shared-learning model, enabling the benefit to biofuels from bioproduct technology and feedstock supply chain development to be quantified. A wide variety of bioproducts can be analyzed using the BTD model, including bioproducts that have been developed through economic or policy-driven mechanisms, and those with either niche (low volume) or scalable (high volume) markets. The BTD model also has the potential to apply to technology development processes outside the bioproducts industry; background research performed for this project has shown that the early stages of technology development are similar, and impacted by similar factors, regardless of the exact industry. This presentation will cover the BTD model logic, input data, validation process, and results of a sensitivity analysis based on techno-economic data for succinic acid. The sensitivity analysis was performed to identify factors with the largest impact on the eventual success or failure of a bioproduct. Results indicate that management effectiveness, which affects how efficiently money spent is converted into technological advancements, is the single most important factor in determining whether a bioproduct reaches commercial-scale production. The capacity of the first commercial plant and the type of biomass feedstock used, as well as the presence of government support in the form of cost-sharing, were also identified as significant factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A System Dynamics Model of Early-Stage Transition Dynamics in the Bioproducts Industry

The U.S. Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office has a broad understanding of different conversion processes that produce bioproducts (chemicals derived from biomass feedstocks) and the techno-economic attributes of those processes. However, bioproducts have in many cases proven to be difficult to scale up to commercial production, and there is currently a need for greater understanding around the possible successful scenarios for advancing the bioproducts industry. Insight into the myriad factors that impact the success of individual bioproducts and the growth of the bioproducts industry will enable bioproduct stakeholders to evaluate strategies for development and investment that could achieve the greatest impact. An understanding of these factors will also enable the identification of synergies between the bioproducts and biofuels industries that occur through shared learning and co-production. The Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) model explores questions such as the following: what are the factors that separate a successful, commercially produced bioproduct like succinic acid from one that never progresses beyond bench-scale lab research? Can these factors be influenced by stakeholders, and to what extent? The BTD model uses system dynamics to capture the impacts of investor decision-making, bioproduct techno-economics, and end use factors during the early stages of bioproduct development. Key components of the BTD model include techno-economic benchmarks that inform the investor decision-making process, failures and setbacks in development and the resulting need for additional work, and the impacts of effective or ineffective management during each development stage. These factors and their interactions are tracked through bench-scale laboratory research, piloting, demoing, and the construction and operation of the first commercial-scale plant. Bioproduct development is linked to the biofuels industry through a shared-learning model, enabling the benefit to biofuels from bioproduct technology and feedstock supply chain development to be quantified. A wide variety of bioproducts can be analyzed using the BTD model, including bioproducts that have been developed through economic or policy-driven mechanisms, and those with either niche (low volume) or scalable (high volume) demand. The BTD model also has the potential to apply to technology development processes outside the bioproducts industry; background research performed for this project has shown that the early stages of technology development are similar, and impacted by similar factors, regardless of the exact industry. This presentation will cover the BTD model logic, input data, validation process, and results of a sensitivity analysis based on techno-economic data for succinic acid. The sensitivity analysis was performed to identify factors with the largest impact on the eventual success or failure of a bioproduct. Results indicate that management effectiveness, which affects how efficiently money spent is converted into technological advancements, is the single most important factor in determining whether a bioproduct reaches commercial-scale production. The capacity of the first commercial plant and the type of biomass feedstock used, as well as the presence of government support in the form of cost-sharing, were also identified as significant factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Reliability Assessment of Safety-Critical Network Communication in a Digitalized Nuclear Power Plant

In analog instrumentation and control (I and C) systems for nuclear power plants (NPPs), most connections are comprised of hardwired point-to-point types. Since they are based on analog technologies, they are fragile to noise and require analog-to-digital conversion time. Therefore, many NPPs have adopted communication network for the exchange of safety-critical data between programmable logic controllers (PLCs) in digital I and C systems to effectively accommodate a huge number of field controllers. However, the primary issue of digital network communication in a safety-critical system involves potential hazards, such as partial or total loss of communication between PLCs, which may result in a failure of safety critical signal generation when it is needed. Therefore, the probability that a safety-critical system in digitalized NPP becomes unsafe due to a network failure must be evaluated to quantify the risk of digital I and C system. In Korea, the Engineered Safety Feature-Component Control System (ESF-CCS) was developed as one of the digital safety-critical system in Advanced Power Reactor- 1400 (APR-1400). The function of a digital engineered safety feature (ESF) actuation system and field actuator controllers of conventional NPPs are performed by the ESF-CCS. In this system, safety-critical network, High Reliable- Safety Data Network (HR-SDN), was employed for the safety-critical data transmission from group controllers (GCs) to loop controllers (LCs). In this study, a framework for assessing the reliability of a HR-SDN network communication between GCs and LCs in the ESF-CCS in addition to a fault-tree model for ESF components considering network failure between GCs and LCs were developed to assess the plant risk effect of a newly developed digitalized ESF-CCS. Based on the case studies and cut set analysis, the risk effect of network failure on plant risk and the important risk contributors of network failure were quantitatively addressed. A framework for identifying the potential hazardous states of network communication in the ESFCCS was proposed. In addition, a fault-tree model for network communication failure was developed to estimate the risk effects of network failure between the GCs and LCs on ESF-CCS signal failure. The developed fault-tree model was then applied to several case studies. The fault-tree model of ESF-CCS signal failure for ESF components required for various mitigation actions regarding NPP DBAs was designed by considering the identified hazardous states of network failure that would result in a failure to provide input signals to the corresponding LC. As a sensitivity study, three case studies were performed based on the periodic test methods for hardware components in HR-SDN module and their test intervals in this study. The quantitative results for three case studies demonstrated that the probability of overall network communication failure, which was calculated as the sum of the failure probability associated with each failure cause, contributed up to 1.58% on the Small-LOCA CD frequency. The results also revealed the important basic events related to network failure in the case studies which included CCF of hardware and software in HR-SDN module. This study is expected to provide insight into the development of the fault-tree model for the network failure in digital I and C system and into the quantification of the risk effect of network failure for safety-critical data transmission in NPPs. As a further study, the risk effects of network failure in the ESF-CCS on the plant risk can be estimated in a more detailed manner by analyzing the failure modes and causes in a sub-component level and the fault detection coverage of the fault tolerance techniques for network failure implemented in ESF-CCS after the detailed configuration of ESF-CCS is decided. In terms of the failure of manual ESF actuation, the relationship among the human action failures must be investigated to consider multiple human error condition since ESF-CCS provides multiple manual actuation to assure the diversity of the system. Since the conventional HEP method cannot accommodate the multiple conditions in a fault tree, condition-based human reliability assessment (CBHRA) method or the dynamic human reliability modeling approach can be applied to include a complex relationship among the automated safety signal generation and the human operator's manual actuation, avoiding the optimistic estimation of HEP of the human action failure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Reply to "Comments on 'A CloudSat-CALIPSO View of Cloud and Precipitation Properties Across Cold Fronts over the Global Oceans'"

In Naud et al., a compositing method was utilized with CloudSat-CALIPSO observations to obtain mean transects of cloud vertical distribution and surface precipitation across cold fronts, and to examine their sensitivity to the large-scale properties of the parent extratropical cyclone. This reply demonstrates the value of compositing for evaluating numerical models, and presents additional results that address the issue of the sensitivity of the initial results to the frontal detection methodology and the potential misclassification of occlusions as cold fronts. Here a sensitivity study of the cold front composite transects of cloud cover to the input datasets or the method utilized to locate the cold fronts demonstrates that these composite transects are robust and only marginally sensitive to cold front location methods. The same conclusion is reached for the robustness of the contrast between Northern and Southern Hemisphere cloud transects. While occlusions cannot directly be flagged within the database at this point, comparisons of transects obtained for subsets of cyclones of different age indicate that the misclassification of occluded fronts as cold fronts does not explain the predominance of cloud and precipitation on the warm side of the cold fronts. The strong signal on the warm side might be better explained by a predominance of forward sloping cold fronts, or the presence of the warm conveyor belt.

Cloud cover; Cold fronts; Extratropical cyclones; ↗