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DOE OSTI2022

SCALE 6.2.4 Validation: Reactor Physics

This report is the third volume in a report series documenting the validation of SCALE 6.2.4, which is used herein with ENDF/B-VII.1 libraries, for nuclear criticality safety, reactor physics, and radiation shielding applications. This report focuses on validating SCALE capabilities that affect reactor physics applications. The experimental data used as basis for validation consists of measurement data for nuclide inventory, decay heat, and full-core experiments and include the following: 1. radiochemical assay measurements of 40 nuclides of importance to burnup credit, decay heat, and radiation shielding in 169 light-water reactor (LWR) spent nuclear fuel samples that cover burnups up to 70 GWd/MTU and initial enrichments up to 4.9% 235 U; 2. full-assembly decay heat measurements for 236 LWR assemblies with: a. initial fuel enrichments up to 4% 235 U, b. assembly burnups of 5–51 GWd/MTU, and c. cooling times after discharge in the 2- to 27-year range (of importance to spent nuclear fuel storage, transportation, and disposal); and 3. pulse fission irradiations for fissionable materials at cooling times of interest to severe accident analyses (<10 5 s). Validation examples for full-core analysis are based on startup experiments for the Watts Bar Nuclear Unit 1 (WBN1) pressurized water reactor (PWR) and two high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) benchmarks for the HTR-10 pebble bed and the prismatic HTTR reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

ML-Based Pebble Power Reconstruction for Pebble Bed Reactor Analysis

Pebble power reconstruction has been explored to complement the conventional homogenized modeling approach in pebble bed reactor (PBR) analysis, as detailed heterogeneous geometry calculations are computationally expensive. The random distribution of pebble fuels within the core challenges the application of conventional pin power reconstruction methods. To address this, we introduce a machine learning approach based on the transformer model, composed of encoder and decoder layers, to estimate the flux and power form functions for reconstructing individual pebble neutron fluxes and powers. The homogeneous neutron flux distribution within each spectral zone (SZ) is obtained from finite element solutions of global diffusion or transport calculations. Verification tests demonstrate that the trained transformer model accurately predicts power form functions over a range of conditions, including variations in pebble enrichment, location, type, SZ size, and burnup. In particular, verification using a three-dimensional PBR benchmark with burned pebbles shows good agreement in heterogeneous pebble power distributions between Griffin and Serpent. These results highlight the potential of applying conventional pin power reconstruction approaches to PBR cores with randomly distributed pebbles.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Combustion of metal powder with dinitrogen tetroxide

In this work, we present analysis of a novel reactive material system that employs dinitrogen tetroxide (N 2 O 4 ) as a liquid oxidizer with metal powder fuels. The oxidizer was added to micron scale aluminum and zirconium powders by a remote injection system. When ignited with a high voltage spark, the mixtures were observed to possess reactivity comparable to nanocomposite reactive materials, with open-tube flame expansion velocities from 500 to 1400 m/s depending on fuel/oxidizer ratio and tube diameter. Temperatures were observed to range from 3000 to 3500 K as measured with gray body fits to 16-channel time-resolved pyrometer and time-integrated spectrometer data. These values were significantly below calculated adiabatic flame temperatures, which we attribute to local deviations from stoichiometry and kinetic/energetic limitations similar to those observed in studies of particles burning in high pressures gaseous oxidizers. Al/N 2 O 4 reactivity was found to be most likely limited by the vaporization of the metal from the particle surface and Zr/N 2 O 4 was limited by slower burning and complex interactions involving the solubility of nitrogen and oxygen in the molten Zr. We also discuss the potential for these materials to be used to create an “on/off” reactive material, since N2O4 can be added remotely and driven to evaporate via vacuum or purge of inert gases to return it to a safe condition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards an Agent-Based Blackboard System for Reactor Design Optimization

The field of reactor design is rich with opportunities for applications of computational optimization algorithms; these applications can range from preliminary core design to reactor shuffling patterns. Many of these schemes rely on sets of previously generated solutions (sometimes referred to as “generations”) to inform future decisions. While it is important to build upon prior knowledge, this process requires a full generation of solutions to be formed before future solutions can be examined. Rather than relying on a generational scheme to perform an optimization, we propose using an agent-based approach in conjunction with a blackboard framework for performing reactor design optimizations. Utilizing an agent-based approach allows agents to perform tasks independently, while retaining the ability to build off of previous solutions. We develop an agent-based blackboard system (ABBS) for determining the Pareto front (PF) in sodium fast reactor design optimization problems and compared this with the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II). Our goal is to evaluate the viability of the ABBS in producing a PF that is comparable with the NSGA-II algorithm. The design space consists of the fuel height, fuel smear, and plutonium fraction in the core, and we seek to minimize the reactivity swing and plutonium mass, while maximizing the burnup. The diversity, coverage, and spread of the PFs generated by the two methods are examined, and the ABBS is able to converge to the same PF as the NSGA-II algorithm. These results show that the ABBS is able to find optimal designs that are similar to those found by the NSGA-II algorithm. We conclude our study by applying the ABBS to the design of a sodium-cooled fast reactor to dispose of weapons-grade plutonium. The ABBS finds a core design that can burn upwards of 17.5 kg of weapons-grade plutonium per year and degrade an additional 195 kg of weapons-grade plutonium per year into non-weapons-grade material.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extension of Large Fire Emissions From Summer to Autumn and Its Drivers in the Western US

Abstract Burned areas in the western US have increased ten‐fold since 1980s, which are attributable to multiple factors, including increasing heat, changing precipitation patterns, and extended drought. To better understand how these factors contribute to large fire emissions (gridded monthly fire emissions >95th percentile of all the fire emissions in the western US; 0.009 Gg/month), we build a machine learning model to predict fire emissions (PM 2.5 ) over the western US at 0.25° resolution, interpreted using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). From the predictor contributions derived from XAI, we conduct k‐means clustering analysis to identify four clusters of predictor variables representing different drivers of large fire emissions. The four clusters feature the contributions of fuel load (Cluster 1) and different levels of dryness (Cluster 2–4), controlled by fuel moisture, drought condition, and fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns featuring high temperature, high pressure, and low relative humidity. In the past two decades, large fire emissions peak in summer. However, large fire emissions increased significantly in September and October in 2010–2020 relative to 2000–2009, extending the peak large fire emissions from summer to autumn. The larger enhancements of large fire emissions during autumn compared to summer are contributed by decreased fuel moisture, along with more frequent concurrent fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns and drought. These results highlight fuel drying as a common driver supported by multiple drivers, such as warmer temperature and more frequent synoptic patterns favorable for fires, in increasing the autumn risk of large fire emissions across the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of residual gas fraction estimation methods for cycle-to-cycle combustion variability analysis and modeling

Cycle-to-cycle combustion variability in spark-ignition engines during normal operation is mainly caused by random perturbations of the in-cylinder conditions such as the flow velocity field, homogeneity of the air-fuel distribution, spark energy discharge, and turbulence intensity of the flame front. Such perturbations translate into the variability of the energy released observed at the end of the combustion process. During normal operating conditions, the cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV) of the energy release behaves as random uncorrelated noise. However, during diluted combustion, in either the form of exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) or excess air (lean operation), the CCV tends to increase as dilution increases. Moreover, when the ignition limit is reached at high dilution levels, the combustion CCV is exacerbated by sporadic occurrences of incomplete combustion events, and the uncorrelation assumption no longer holds. The low or null energy released by partial burns and misfires has an impact on the following combustion event due to the residual gas that carries burned and unburned gases, which contributes to the deterministic coupling between engine cycles. Many residual gas fraction estimation methods, however, only address the nominal case where complete combustion occurs and combustion events are uncorrelated. Here we evaluate the efficacy of such methods on capturing the effects of partial burns and misfires on the residual gas estimate for high-EGR operation. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed based on their ability to generate cycle-to-cycle estimates. Finally, a comparison between the different estimation techniques is presented based on their usefulness for control-oriented modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combustion studies of n-butyl acetate synthesized by a new biological process and comparisons with neat n-butyl acetate

Blending petroleum fuels with biofuels is a common approach for stemming the depletion of crude oil while also mitigating the impact of their combustion on the environment. It has recently been considered that n-butyl acetate (BA, C6H12O2, boiling point of 399K) could be a viable biofuel additive to diesel fuel. This paper reports the combustion dynamics of BA droplets in the absence of external convection. Two grades of BA were examined: one synthesized by a new process that uses a solventogenic Clostridium strain through an extractive fermentation process using n-hexadecane as the extractant (SBA); the other commercially available as a high-purity (99.9%) 'neat' BA grade produced by Fischer esterification (NBA). The mass concentration of by-products from the synthesis process amounted to approximately 6% of the total composition and included n-butanol, n-hexadecane, iso-propyl alcohol and ethyl acetate. The platform used to study the combustion of commercial and synthesized BA was an isolated droplet burning with spherical symmetry. Initial droplet diameters were fixed at 0.6 mm. Experiments were carried out in a drop tower to promote one-dimensional transport dynamics, in the standard atmosphere, and with ignition accomplished by spark discharge. Differences in droplet burning rates and flame structures were undetectable between NBA and SBA, despite the differences in burning among the SBA components individually. The results presented show that the new synthesis process for butyl acetate yields a sustainable alternative to conventional methodologies with burning characteristics that are identical to NBA in stagnant gas transport fields.

Wang, Yujie↗
DOE OSTI2024

H_Burn_Key2_Dshell_CCC: Pre-shot Report

The double shell implosion platform presents an opportunity to explore the dynamics of a burning plasma within a volumetric burn framework. The double shell campaign and the ICF program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is focused on achieving burning plasma using an indirectly driven double shell implosion at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Double shell implosion is aimed at achieving robust ignition with lower convergence, albeit introducing more engineering and physics complexity due to the intricacies of assembling the capsule. The double shell target is comprised of an outer aluminum ablator shell and an inner high-Z (made of molybdenum or tungsten) pusher shell, separated by a cushion of low-density foam. The outer shell undergoes ablation driven by hohlraum-generated x-rays, which compress the foam to immense pressures, reaching several gigabars. This creates a pressure reservoir that propels the high-Z metal pusher, compressing and heating the deuterium-tritium (DT) liquid fuel to significant densities and temperatures, thereby igniting the plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Planning for Seattle at the Convergence of Resilience and Energy

Grid reliability metrics obscure important temporal, spatial, and categorical considerations for increasing energy resilience. Systemwide or feeder-level outage metrics do not identify which kinds of services are affected by outages, where, and for how long. These outage metrics indicate the impacts of outages but cannot measure the consequences to customers that could result from those outages. The consequences of power outages for surrounding community members are caused by disruptions to electricity-dependent critical services, rather than to electricity itself. Power outages can decrease a community's access to healthcare, fuel, safe indoor temperatures, and provisions like food and water. This project developed critical service access, a new consequence-focused resilience metric that quantifies the relative access to critical services provided to households by distribution infrastructure during normal conditions and major disruptions. We use a spatially granular grid analysis that facilitates targeted resilience interventions; dividing feeders into isolatable sections and combining those sections with the critical service access metric allows us to identify where energy improvements like solar-plus-storage microgrids could create the most benefits for community members by protecting access to food, fuel, health, shelter, and public safety services. We identify locations in a South Seattle study area that could be high priorities for resilience investment and summarize their potential neighborhood-scale resilience benefits. This analysis was complemented by direct feedback from study area residents collect through a survey and focus groups. Results can help utilities understand how and where long power outages can create real consequences for customers, set strategic targets based on that understanding, and measure the potential benefits of energy resilience upgrades for more informed decisions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systematically tracking the hourly progression of large wildfires using GOES satellite observations

Abstract. In the western United States, prolonged drought, a warming climate, and historical fuel buildup have contributed to larger and more intense wildfires as well as to longer fire seasons. As these costly wildfires become more common, new tools and methods are essential for improving our understanding of the evolution of fires and how extreme weather conditions, including heat waves, windstorms, droughts, and varying levels of active-fire suppression, influence fire spread. Here, we develop the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)-Observed Fire Event Representation (GOFER) algorithm to derive the hourly fire progression of large wildfires and create a product of hourly fire perimeters, active-fire lines, and fire spread rates. Using GOES-East and GOES-West geostationary satellite detections of active fires, we test the GOFER algorithm on 28 large wildfires in California from 2019 to 2021. The GOFER algorithm includes parameter optimizations for defining the burned-to-unburned boundary and correcting for the parallax effect from elevated terrain. We evaluate GOFER perimeters using 12 h data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)-derived Fire Event Data Suite (FEDS) and final fire perimeters from the California's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP). Although the GOES imagery used to derive GOFER has a coarser resolution (2 km at the Equator), the final fire perimeters from GOFER correspond reasonably well to those obtained from FRAP, with a mean Intersection-over-Union (IoU) of 0.77, in comparison to 0.83 between FEDS and FRAP; the IoU indicates the area of overlap over the area of the union relative to the reference perimeters, in which 0 is no agreement and 1 is perfect agreement. GOFER fills a key temporal gap present in other fire tracking products that rely on low-Earth-orbit imagery, where perimeters are available at intervals of 12 h or longer or at ad hoc intervals from aircraft overflights. This is particularly relevant when a fire spreads rapidly, such as at maximum hourly spread rates of over 5 km h−1. Our GOFER algorithm for deriving the hourly fire progression using GOES can be applied to large wildfires across North and South America and reveals considerable variability in the rates of fire spread on diurnal timescales. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8327264, Liu et al., 2023).

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Irradiation Driven Restructuring of Nanocrystalline ThO 2 and Th 1–x U x O 2 Thin Films

Irradiation induced structural changes of actinide oxide materials is a key consideration in their development and use as nuclear fuels. This study reported on the synthesis of ThO 2 and Th 1–x U x O 2 (x = 0.15, 0.50) thin films, fabricated using electrospray-assisted solution combustion synthesis, and their responses to ion irradiation. Krypton ion irradiations, up to a fluence of 1 × 10 16 ions/cm 2 , were carried out to simulate radiation damage induced by fission products in a reactor environment. Structural and chemical changes induced by irradiation were analyzed using high-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), and electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS). It was determined that the extent and nature of irradiation-induced damage are strongly correlated with the uranium content. ThO 2 films were most susceptible to radiation-induced damage, with significant cavity formation and delamination from the substrate at high fluence. Of the compositions studied, Th 0.85 U 0.15 O 2 films showed the highest stability, characterized by moderate grain growth and the absence of voids or severe defect structures. In contrast, Th 0.5 U 0.5 O 2 films accumulated extensive damage, including the formation of a nanocrystalline central region. EELS analysis indicated that oxygen displacement is the primary driver of structural degradation in Th 0.5 U 0.5 O 2 films. α-particle spectroscopy confirmed minimal actinide loss across all compositions, underscoring the mechanical robustness of the films. These findings provide insight into the irradiation-induced damage mechanisms in Th O2 and Th 1–x U x O 2 systems, supporting their development as potential materials for nuclear fuels and irradiation-tolerant thin film targets in nuclear physics measurements.

Th1−xUxO2↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient Leaching of Metal Ions from Spent Li-Ion Battery Combined Electrode Coatings Using Hydroxy Acid Mixtures and Regeneration of Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide

Extensive use of Li-ion batteries in electric vehicles, electronics, and other energy storage applications has resulted in a need to recycle valuable metals Li, Mn, Ni, and Co in these devices. In this work, an aqueous mixture of glycolic and lactic acid is shown as an excellent leaching agent to recover these critical metals from spent Li-ion laptop batteries combined with cathode and anode coatings without adding hydrogen peroxide or other reducing agents. An aqueous acid mixture of 0.15 M in glycolic and 0.35 M in lactic acid showed the highest leaching efficiencies of 100, 100, 100, and 89% for Li, Ni, Mn, and Co, respectively, in an experiment at 120 °C for 6 h. Subsequently, the chelate solution was evaporated to give a mixed metal-hydroxy acid chelate gel. Pyrolysis of the dried chelate gel at 800 °C for 15 h could be used to burn off hydroxy acids, regenerating lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide, and the novel method presented to avoid the precipitation of metals as hydroxide or carbonates. The Li, Ni, Mn, and Co ratio of regenerated lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide is comparable to this metal ratio in pyrolyzed electrode coating and showed similar powder X-ray diffractograms, suggesting the suitability of α-hydroxy carboxylic acid mixtures as leaching agents and ligands in regeneration of mixed metal oxide via pyrolysis of the dried chelate gel.

Electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multidimensional Numerical Modeling of Combustion Dynamics in a Non-Premixed Rotating Detonation Engine With Adaptive Mesh Refinement

In the present work, a novel computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methodology was developed to simulate full-scale non-premixed rotating detonation engines (RDEs). A unique feature of the modeling approach was the incorporation of adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) to achieve a good trade-off between model accuracy and computational expense. Here, unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations were performed for an Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) non-premixed RDE configuration with hydrogen as fuel and air as the oxidizer. The finite-rate chemistry model, along with a ten-species detailed kinetic mechanism, was employed to describe the H 2 -Air combustion chemistry. Three distinct operating conditions were simulated, corresponding to the same global equivalence ratio of unity but different fuel/air mass flowrates. For all conditions, the capability of the model to capture essential detonation wave dynamics was assessed. An exhaustive verification and validation study was performed against experimental data in terms of a number of waves, wave frequency, wave height, reactant fill height, oblique shock angle, axial pressure distribution in the channel, and fuel/air plenum pressure. The CFD model was demonstrated to accurately predict the sensitivity of these wave characteristics to the operating conditions, both qualitatively and quantitatively. A comprehensive heat release analysis was also conducted to quantify detonative versus deflagrative burning for the three simulated cases. The present CFD model offers a potential capability to perform rapid design space exploration and/or performance optimization studies for realistic full-scale RDE configurations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

An experimental and kinetic modeling study of cyclopentane and dimethyl ether blends

Cyclopentane is a suitable naphthene, or cycloalkane, in a palette for multi-component gasoline surrogate fuels due to its presence in market fuels and its relevance to alkyl substituted cyclopentanes also present. However, the previous oxidation studies of cyclopentane have primarily focused on neat mixtures. Blending cyclopentane with dimethyl ether in this work therefore serves to inform our understanding of, and improve predictive models for, multi-component mixtures. Here, the auto-ignition of cyclopentane/dimethyl ether blends was studied in a high-pressure shock tube and in a rapid compression machine. A wide range of temperatures (650 – 1350 K) and elevated pressures of 20 and 40 bar were studied at equivalence ratios of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 in air for two blending ratios (30/70 and 70/30 mole% cyclopentane/di-methyl ether mixtures). A detailed kinetic model for cyclopentane was revised to capture the measured ignition delay times and apparent heat release rates in this study. Literature ignition delay time, jet-stirred reactor, and laminar burning velocity measurements of neat cyclopentane were used as additional validation. Improvements to the kinetic model were based on recent literature studies related to sub-models including cyclopentene and cyclopentadiene which allowed the removal of previous local rate-constant optimizations. Low temperature reactivity of cyclopentane was found to be controlled by the branching ratio between concerted elimination of HO͘ 2 and the strained formation of Q&#775OOH radicals in agreement with previous studies. In this study, the low branching ratio of Q&#775OOH formation increases the influence of a competing consumption pathway for cyclopentyl-peroxy (CPTO͘ 2 J) radicals. The sensitivity of the simulated ignition delay times to the formation of cyclopentyl hydroperoxide (CPTO 2 H), from CPTO͘ 2 J and HO͘ 2 , is discussed. The current model is used to analyze the influence of dimethyl ether on the reactivity of cyclopentane in the context of previous literature studies of dimethyl ether binary blends with ethanol and toluene.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data accompanying the publication "Sensitivity of grass fires burning in marginal conditions to atmospheric turbulence" in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres

Data accompanying Jonko, Yedinak, Conley, and Linn (2021): "Sensitivity of grass fires burning in marginal conditions to atmospheric turbulence", JGR-Atmospheres. LA-UR-21-24832. The following files were generated from simulations performed with Los Alamos National Laboratory coupled atmosphere-fire behavior model FIRETEC v1.3: -area_burned.csv contains the area burned per second in m^2 for 45 CORE simulations, 20 INIT simulations and 20 BOUND simulations (85 columns), and 600 seconds of simulation (600 rows). -fire_perimeter.csv containing the fire perimeters in m for 45 CORE simulations, 20 INIT simulations and 20 BOUND simulations (85 columns), and 600 seconds of simulation (600 rows). -consumption_per_second.csv containing consumption in kg/s for 45 CORE simulations, 20 INIT simulations and 20 BOUND simulations (85 columns), and 600 seconds of simulation (600 rows). -rate_of_spread.csv containing the distance of the fire front from the ignition line in m for 45 CORE simulations, 20 INIT simulations and 20 BOUND simulations (85 columns), and 600 seconds of simulation (600 rows). -CORE1_u_10m_300_sec.hdf, INIT3_u_10m_300_sec.hdf, and BOUND3_u_10m_300_sec.hdf contain u wind speeds at 10 m height for 300 seconds (3D: time, x, y) of simulation for simulations CORE1, INIT3, and BOUND3, respectively. -CORE.final.fuel.density.hdf contains final fuel densities in the surface layer of the model (3D: ensemble member, x, y) for all 45 CORE simulations. -CORE{1-45}_3D_u_120_sec.hdf: 45 files containing vertically and horizontally resolved u winds for 120 seconds of simulation (4D: time, x, y, z) for the 45 CORE ensemble members. For additional information about this data, please contact the corresponding author at ajonko@lanl.gov.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Options for Subscale Maturation of Advanced Reactor Technologies Testing for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

Several options could be implemented to establish an irradiation testing capability suitable for investigation of the performance of multiple nuclear thermal propulsion fuel elements at prototypic conditions. The prototypic conditions of interest are based on the current needs of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Space Nuclear Power Program. The results of such testing are also intended to reduce the risks currently seen for any future subscale or full-scale ground testing of an engine-reactor system. The optimal solution is dependent upon several factors such as performance, cost, availability, schedule, technology readiness level, and plans for future testing in the SNP Program. Three options, based on different combinations of these factors, are considered in this report.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗