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At least 541 records · Page 30

Extending quantum probabilistic error cancellation by noise scaling

Here, we propose a general framework for quantum error mitigation that combines and generalizes two techniques: probabilistic error cancellation (PEC) and zero-noise extrapolation (ZNE). Similar to PEC, the proposed method represents ideal operations as linear combinations of noisy operations that are implementable on hardware. However, instead of assuming a fixed level of hardware noise, we extend the set of implementable operations by noise scaling. By construction, this method encompasses both PEC and ZNE as particular cases and allows us to investigate a larger set of hybrid techniques. For example, gate extrapolation can be used to implement PEC without requiring knowledge of the device’s noise model, e.g., avoiding gate-set tomography. Alternatively, probabilistic error reduction can be used to estimate expectation values at intermediate virtual noise strengths (below the hardware level), leading to partially mitigated results at a lower sampling cost. Moreover, multiple results obtained with different noise-reduction factors can be further postprocessed with ZNE to better approximate the zero-noise limit.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Estimating Subhourly Inverter Clipping Loss From Satellite-Derived Irradiance Data: Preprint

Photovoltaic system production simulations are conventionally run using hourly weather datasets. Hourly simulations are sufficiently accurate to predict the majority of long-term system behavior but cannot resolve high-frequency effects like inverter clipping caused by short-duration irradiance variability. Direct modeling of this subhourly clipping error is only possible for the few locations with high-resolution irradiance datasets. This paper describes a method of predicting the magnitude of this error using a machine learning model and 30-minute satellite irradiance data. The method predicts a correction for each 30-minute interval with the potential to roll up into 60-minute corrections to match an hourly energy model. The model is trained and validated at locations where the error can be directly simulated from 1-minute ground data. The validation shows low bias at most ground station locations. The model is also applied to gridded satellite irradiance to produce a heatmap of the estimated clipping error across the United States. Finally, the relative importance of each predictor satellite variable is retrieved from the model and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Fast Rossi-alpha Measurements of Plutonium Using Organic Scintillators

In this work, Rossi-alpha measurements were simultaneously performed with a 3 He-based detection system and an organic scintillator-based detection system. The assembly is 15 kg of plutonium (93 wt% 239 Pu) reflected by copper and moderated by lead. The goal of Rossi-alpha measurements is to estimate the prompt neutron decay constant, alpha. Simulations estimate $k_{eff}$ = 0:624 and α = 52:3 ± 2:5 ns for the measured assembly. The organic scintillator system estimated α = 47:4 ± 2:0 ns, having a 9.37% error (though the 1.09 standard deviation confidence intervals overlapped). The 3 He system estimated α = 37 μs. The known slowing down time of the 3 He system is 35-40 μs, which means the slowing down time dominates and obscures the prompt neutron decay constant. Subsequently, the organic scintillator system should be used for assemblies with alpha much less than 35 μs.

3He↗

Generalization error guaranteed auto-encoder-based nonlinear model reduction for operator learning

Many physical processes in science and engineering are naturally represented by operators between infinite-dimensional function spaces. The problem of operator learning, in this context, seeks to extract these physical processes from empirical data, which is challenging due to the infinite or high dimensionality of data. An integral component in addressing this challenge is model reduction, which reduces both the data dimensionality and problem size. In this paper, we utilize low-dimensional nonlinear structures in model reduction by investigating Auto-Encoder-based Neural Network (AENet). AENet first learns the latent variables of the input data and then learns the transformation from these latent variables to corresponding output data. Our numerical experiments validate the ability of AENet to accurately learn the solution operator of nonlinear partial differential equations. Furthermore, we establish a mathematical and statistical estimation theory that analyzes the generalization error of AENet. Finally, our theoretical framework shows that the sample complexity of training AENet is intricately tied to the intrinsic dimension of the modeled process, while also demonstrating the robustness of AENet to noise.

Auto-encoder↗

Optimal 1D Ly α forest power spectrum estimation – I. DESI-lite spectra

ABSTRACT The 1D Ly α forest flux power spectrum P1D is sensitive to scales smaller than a typical galaxy survey, and hence ties to the intergalactic medium’s thermal state, suppression from neutrino masses, and new dark matter models. It has emerged as a competitive framework to study new physics, but also has come with various challenges and systematic errors in analysis. In this work, we revisit the optimal quadratic estimator for P1D, which is robust against the relevant problems such as pixel masking, time evolution within spectrum, and quasar continuum errors. We further improve the estimator by introducing a fiducial power spectrum, which enables us to extract more information by alleviating the discreteness of band powers. We meticulously apply our method to synthetic Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) spectra and demonstrate how the estimator overcomes each challenge. We further apply an optimization scheme that approximates the Fisher matrix to three elements per row and reduces computation time by 60 per cent. We show that we can achieve per cent precision in P1D with 5-yr DESI data in the absence of systematics and provide forecasts for different spectral qualities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Accounting for Training Data Error in Machine Learning Applied to Earth Observations

Remote sensing, or Earth Observation (EO), is increasingly used to understand Earth system dynamics and create continuous and categorical maps of biophysical properties and land cover, especially based on recent advances in machine learning (ML). ML models typically require large, spatially explicit training datasets to make accurate predictions. Training data (TD) are typically generated by digitizing polygons on high spatial-resolution imagery, by collecting in situ data, or by using pre-existing datasets. TD are often assumed to accurately represent the truth, but in practice almost always have error, stemming from (1) sample design, and (2) sample collection errors. The latter is particularly relevant for image-interpreted TD, an increasingly commonly used method due to its practicality and the increasing training sample size requirements of modern ML algorithms. TD errors can cause substantial errors in the maps created using ML algorithms, which may impact map use and interpretation. Despite these potential errors and their real-world consequences for map-based decisions, TD error is often not accounted for or reported in EO research. Here we review the current practices for collecting and handling TD. We identify the sources of TD error, and illustrate their impacts using several case studies representing different EO applications (infrastructure mapping, global surface flux estimates, and agricultural monitoring), and provide guidelines for minimizing and accounting for TD errors. To harmonize terminology, we distinguish TD from three other classes of data that should be used to create and assess ML models: training reference data, used to assess the quality of TD during data generation; validation data, used to iteratively improve models; and map reference data, used only for final accuracy assessment. We focus primarily on TD, but our advice is generally applicable to all four classes, and we ground our review in established best practices for map accuracy assessment literature. EO researchers should start by determining the tolerable levels of map error and appropriate error metrics. Next, TD error should be minimized during sample design by choosing a representative spatio-temporal collection strategy, by using spatially and temporally relevant imagery and ancillary data sources during TD creation, and by selecting a set of legend definitions supported by the data. Furthermore, TD error can be minimized during the collection of individual samples by using consensus-based collection strategies, by directly comparing interpreted training observations against expert-generated training reference data to derive TD error metrics, and by providing image interpreters with thorough application-specific training. We strongly advise that TD error is incorporated in model outputs, either directly in bias and variance estimates or, at a minimum, by documenting the sources and implications of error. TD should be fully documented and made available via an open TD repository, allowing others to replicate and assess its use. To guide researchers in this process, we propose three tiers of TD error accounting standards. Finally, we advise researchers to clearly communicate the magnitude and impacts of TD error on map outputs, with specific consideration given to the likely map audience.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Unsupervised Azimuth Estimation of Solar Arrays in Low-Resolution Satellite Imagery through Semantic Segmentation and Hough Transform

This paper explains the use of a convolutional neural network (CNN) to segment solar panels in a satellite image containing solar arrays, and extract associated metadata from the arrays. A novel unsupervised technique is introduced to estimate the azimuth of each individual solar panel from the predicted mask of the convolutional neural network. This pipeline was developed with the aim of extracting necessary metadata for a solar installation, using only a set of latitude–longitude coordinates. Azimuth prediction results for 669 individual solar installations associated with 387 sites located across the United States are provided. A mean average error and median average error of 21.65 degrees and 1.0 degrees were obtained, respectively, when predicting the azimuth of the solar fleet data set, with about 80% of the results within an error of zero degrees of the ground truth azimuth value and about 85% within an error of 25 degrees. The predicted azimuth was then used to estimate the energy conversion of the solar arrays. Results show a 90.9 and 90.6 R-squared value for estimating alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) energy, respectively, and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.70% in estimating the alternating current (AC) energy using the fully automated algorithm.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

JWST Noise Floor. II. Systematic Error Sources in JWST NIRCam Time Series

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) holds great promise for characterizing atmospheres of transiting exoplanets, potentially providing insights into Earth-sized planets within the habitable zones of M-dwarf host stars if photon-limited performance can be achieved. Here, we discuss the systematic error sources that are expected to be present in grism time-series observations with the NIRCam instrument. We find that pointing jitter and high-gain antenna moves in addition to the detectors’ subpixel crosshatch patterns will produce relatively small variations (less than 6 parts per million, ppm). The time-dependent aperture losses due to thermal instabilities in the optics can also be kept to below 2 ppm. To achieve these low noise values, it is important to employ a sufficiently large (more than 11) extraction aperture. Persistence due to charge-trapping will have a minor (less than 3 ppm) effect on the time series 20 minutes into an exposure and is expected to play a much smaller role than it does for the Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 detectors. We expect detector temperature fluctuations to contribute less than 3 ppm. In total, our estimated noise floor from known systematic error sources is only 9 ppm per visit. We urge caution, however, because unknown systematic error sources could be present in flight and will only be measurable on astrophysical sources such as quiescent stars. We find that reciprocity failure may introduce a perennial instrument offset at the 40 ppm level, so corrections may be needed when a multi-instrument multi-observatory spectrum is stitched together over wide wavelength ranges.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

In-Home Mobility Frequency and Stability in Older Adults Living Alone With or Without MCI: Introduction of New Metrics

Background: Older adults spend a considerable amount of time inside their residences; however, most research investigates out-of-home mobility and its health correlates. We measured indoor mobility using room-to-room transitions, tested their psychometric properties, and correlated indoor mobility with cognitive and functional status. Materials and Methods: Community-dwelling older adults living alone ( n = 139; age = 78.1 ± 8.6 years) from the Oregon Center for Aging & Technology (ORCATECH) and Minority Aging Research Study (MARS) were included in the study. Two indoor mobility features were developed using non-parametric parameters (frequency; stability): Indoor mobility frequency (room-to-room transitions/day) was detected using passive infrared (PIR) motion sensors fixed on the walls in four geographic locations (bathroom; bedroom; kitchen; living room) and using door contact sensors attached to the egress door in the entrance. Indoor mobility stability was estimated by variances of number of room-to-room transitions over a week. Test-retest reliability (Intra-class coefficient, ICC) and the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) defined as the standard error of measurement (SEM) were generated. Generalized estimating equations models related mobility features with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and functional status (gait speed). Results: An average of 206 days (±127) of sensor data were analyzed per individual. Indoor mobility frequency and stability showed good to excellent test-retest reliability (ICCs = 0.91[0.88–0.94]; 0.59[0.48–0.70]). The MCIDs of mobility frequency and mobility stability were 18 and 0.09, respectively. On average, a higher indoor mobility frequency was associated with faster gait speed (β = 0.53, p = 0.04), suggesting an increase of 5.3 room-to-room transitions per day was associated with an increase of 10 cm/s gait speed. A decrease in mobility stability was associated with MCI (β = −0.04, p = 0.03). Discussion: Mobility frequency and stability in the home are clinically meaningful and reliable features. Pervasive-sensing systems deployed in homes can objectively reveal cognitive and functional status in older adults who live alone.

Wu, Chao-Yi↗

A machine learning approach for clinker quality prediction and nonlinear model predictive control design for a rotary cement kiln

Abstract Cement manufacturing is energy‐intensive (5Gj/t) and comprises a significant portion of the energy footprint of concrete systems. Incorporating modern monitoring, simulation and control systems will allow lower energy use, lower environmental impact, and lower costs of this widely used construction material. One of the goals of the CESMII roadmap project on the Smart Manufacturing of Cement included developing an analytical process model for clinker quality that includes the chemistry of the kiln feed and accounts for critical process variables. This predictive model will be used in nonlinear model predictive control system designed to significantly reduce process energy use while maintaining or improving product quality. In the cement manufacturing plant used in this study, the kiln feed (meal) is tested every 12 h and used to estimate the mineral composition of the cement kiln output (clinker) using the stoichiometry‐based Bogue's model and the expertise of the plant operators. During kiln operation, kiln output (clinker) is sampled and tested every 2 h to measure its chemical and mineral composition. The predicted and measured values of the clinker composition are used by the plant operators to adjust the kiln input stream and the production process characteristics to maintain stable operation and uniform product quality. However, the time delay between prediction and testing, along with inaccuracies inherent in the Bogue's model have made any process changes designed to minimize energy use problematic, especially in‐light of potential clinker quality issues that process changes often pose. A new analytical model that integrates quality information and process operation information has been developed from data collected from 2 years of production from an operating cement facility. To make the model fuel‐type‐independent, consumed heat energy was computed in the model instead of fuel type and amount. A Feedforward Network was trained and tailored from collected data. Many data‐based simulations were conducted to quantitatively evaluate the proposed model and the 5‐fold cross‐validation procedure was used to test the models. The resulting predictive model was shown to have a low root mean square error (MSE) with respect to the estimated clinker mineral composition compared to that using the industry standard “Bogue’ model”. The end goal of this work was to develop a single machine learning tool that allows the use of quality control data and process control variables to improve energy efficiency of the process in a continuous fashion. The proposed nonlinear model predictive control system (NMPC) can generate predicted kiln production characteristics based on manipulated variables in manner that accurately follows the target product quality values. Simulation results also show that the proposed model produced accurate predictions of kiln outputs that fell within the required constraints, while manipulating control variables within typical operational ranges.

Ali, Asem M.↗

Characterization and thermometry of dissipatively stabilized steady states

In this work we study the properties of dissipatively stabilized steady states of noisy quantum algorithms, exploring the extent to which they can be well approximated as thermal distributions, and proposing methods to extract the effective temperature T. We study an algorithm called the relaxational quantum eigensolver (RQE), which is one of a family of algorithms that attempt to find ground states and balance error in noisy quantum devices. In RQE, we weakly couple a second register of auxiliary ‘shadow’ qubits to the primary system in Trotterized evolution, thus engineering an approximate zero-temperature bath by periodically resetting the auxiliary qubits during the algorithm’s runtime. Balancing the infinite temperature bath of random gate error, RQE returns states with an average energy equal to a constant fraction of the ground state. We probe the steady states of this algorithm for a range of base error rates, using several methods for estimating both T and deviations from thermal behavior. In particular, we both confirm that the steady states of these systems are often well-approximated by thermal distributions, and show that the same resources used for cooling can be adopted for thermometry, yielding a fairly reliable measure of the temperature. These methods could be readily implemented in near-term quantum hardware, and for stabilizing and probing Hamiltonians where simulating approximate thermal states is hard for classical computers.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Untangling Sources of Error in the Density-Functional Many-Body Expansion

The many-body expansion provides a framework for data-driven applications of electronic structure theory, including parametrization of classical force fields and machine learning. In this article, we demonstrate that its use significantly amplifies quadrature grid errors when modern density-functional approximations are employed. Standard grids that work well in conventional density-functional calculations result in runaway error accumulation when used with the many-body expansion. At the same time, delocalization error is also exacerbated, leading to exaggerated estimates of nonadditive n-body interactions. This is illustrated for anion–water clusters using the SCAN, r2SCAN, ωB97X-V and ωB97M-V functionals. By employing dense quadrature grids, the inherent self-interaction error is exposed, which can then be mitigated using a variety of other strategies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An Automatic Processing Framework for In Situ Determination of Ecohydrological Root Water Content by Ground-Penetrating Radar

This report concerns Root water content (RWC) as a vital component in water flux in soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Knowledge of RWC helps to better understand the root function and the soil-root interaction and improves water cycle modeling. However, due to the lack of appropriate methods, field monitoring of RWC is seriously constrained. In this study, we used ground-penetrating radar (GPR), a common geophysical technique, to characterize RWC of coarse roots noninvasively. An automatic GPR data processing framework was proposed to (1) identify hyperbolic root reflections and locate roots in GPR images and (2) extract waveform parameters from the reflected wave of identified roots. These waveform parameters were then used to establish an empirical model and a semiempirical model to determine RWC. We validated the developed models using GPR root data at three antenna center frequencies (500 MHz, 900 MHz, and 2 GHz) that were produced from simulation experiments (with RWC ranging from 70% to 150%) and field experiments in sandy soils (with RWC ranging from 66% to 144%). Our results show that both the empirical and the semiempirical models achieved a good performance in estimating RWC with similar accuracy, i.e., the prediction error [root-mean-square error (RMSE)] was less than 8% for the simulation data and 12% for the field data. For both models, the accuracy of RWC estimation was the highest when applied to 2-GHz data. This study renders a new opportunity to determine RWC under field conditions that enhances the application of GPR for root study and the understanding and modeling of ecohydrology in the rhizosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A 1 km soil moisture dataset over eastern CONUS generated by assimilating SMAP data into the Noah-MP land surface model

An improved fine-scale soil moisture (SM) dataset at 1 km grid spacing, covering much of the eastern continental US, was generated by assimilating 9 km Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) SM data into the v4.0.1 Noah-MP land surface model. With 12 ensemble members, the assimilation was carried out using the ensemble Kalman filter algorithm within NASA's Land Information System. The SM analysis for 2016 was fully validated against in situ observations from four different networks and compared with four other existing datasets. Results indicate that this SM analysis surpasses other datasets in top-layer SM distribution, including a machine-learning-based product, despite all SM estimates being less heterogeneous than observed. The analysis of anomalous errors suggests that large similarity in intrinsic errors is likely due to overlapping data sources among the selected SM datasets. More detailed evaluations were performed over two geographic areas. The observations collected by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility in Oklahoma suggest that soil temperature and surface heat fluxes are concurrently simulated with good accuracy. Investigation into the 2016 southeastern US drought response further indicates drier conditions and higher evapotranspiration estimates compared to GLEAMv4.1. Notably, large errors are associated with grids having clay soil textures, underscoring the need for refined model treatments for specific soil types to further improve SM estimates. The dataset is publicly available on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14370563 (Tai et al., 2024).

Tai, Sheng-Lun [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

An a priori evaluation of a principal component and artificial neural network based combustion model in diesel engine conditions

A principal component analysis (PCA) and artificial neural network (ANN) based chemistry tabulation approach is presented. ANNs are used to map the thermochemical state onto a low-dimensional manifold consisting of five control variables that have been identified using PCA. Three canonical configurations are considered to train the PCA-ANN model: a series of homogeneous reactors, a nonpremixed flamelet, and a two-dimensional lifted flame. The performance of the model in predicting the thermochemical manifold of a spatially-developing turbulent jet flame in diesel engine thermochemical conditions is a priori evaluated using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. The PCA-ANN approach is compared with a conventional tabulation approach (tabulation using ad hoc defined control variables and linear interpolation). The PCA-ANN model provides higher accuracy and requires several orders of magnitude less memory. Here, these observations indicate that the PCA-ANN model is superior for chemistry tabulation, especially for modelling complex chemistries that present multiple combustion modes as observed in diesel combustion. The performance of the PCA-ANN model is then compared to the optimal estimator, i.e. the conditional mean from the DNS. The results indicate that the PCA-ANN model gives high prediction accuracy, comparable to the optimal estimator, especially for major species and the thermophysical properties. Higher errors are observed for the minor species and reaction rate predictions when compared to the optimal estimator. It is shown that the prediction of minor species and reaction rates can be improved by using training data that exhibits a variation of parameters as observed in the turbulent flame. The output of the ANN is analysed to assess mass conservation. It is observed that the ANN incurs a mean absolute error of 0.05% in mass conservation. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that this error can be reduced by modifying the cost function of the ANN to penalise for deviation from mass conservation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Combined selection of the dynamic model and modeling error in nonlinear aeroelastic systems using Bayesian Inference

Here, we report a Bayesian framework for concurrent selection of physics-based models and (modeling) error models. We investigate the use of colored noise to capture the mismatch between the predictions of calibrated models and observational data that cannot be explained by measurement error alone within the context of Bayesian estimation for stochastic ordinary differential equations. Proposed models are characterized by the average data-fit, a measure of how well a model fits the measurements, and the model complexity measured using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The use of a more complex error models increases the average data-fit but also increases the complexity of the combined model, possibly over-fitting the data. Bayesian model selection is used to find the optimal physical model as well as the optimal error model. The optimal model is defined using the evidence, where the average data-fit is balanced by the complexity of the model. The effect of colored noise process is illustrated using a nonlinear aeroelastic oscillator representing a rigid NACA0012 airfoil undergoing limit cycle oscillations due to complex fluid–structure interactions. Several quasi-steady and unsteady aerodynamic models are proposed with colored noise or white noise for the model error. The use of colored noise improves the predictive capabilities of simpler models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Unsupervised anomaly detection in MeV ultrafast electron diffraction

MeV ultrafast electron diffraction (MUED) is a pump-probe technique used to study the dynamic structural evolution of materials. An ultrashort laser pulse triggers structural changes, which are then probed by an ultrashort relativistic electron beam. To overcome low signal-to-noise ratios, diffraction patterns are averaged over thousands of shots. However, shot-to-shot instabilities in the electron beam can distort individual patterns, introducing uncertainty. Improving MUED accuracy requires detecting and removing these anomalous patterns from large datasets. In this work, we developed a fully unsupervised methodology for the detection of anomalous diffraction patterns. Using a convolutional autoencoder, we calculate the reconstruction mean squared error of the diffraction patterns. Based on the statistical analysis of this error, we provide the user an estimation of the probability that the pattern is normal, which also allows a posterior visual inspection of the images that are difficult to classify. This method has been trained with only 100 diffraction patterns and tested on 1521 patterns, resulting in a false positive rate between 0.2% and 0.4%, with a training time of 10 s per image and a test time of about 1 s per image. Here, the proposed methodology can also be applied to other diffraction techniques in which large datasets are collected that include faulty images due to instrumental instabilities.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for predicting steady-state single-phase natural circulation

The validation of system analysis codes for nuclear reactor systems is required for the development and application of these computational tools. Designed as a comprehensive system analysis code for advanced nuclear reactors, SAS4A/SASSYS-1 requires validation of its physics model for capturing single-phase natural circulation behavior. To support the validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1, high-precision experiments are performed capturing steady-state single-phase natural circulation on a scaled facility with comprehensive instrumentation. In this work, dedicated tests are performed quantifying the critical modeling parameters, and a single-phase natural circulation benchmark dataset is obtained with well-documented uncertainty and comprehensive facility description. The validation is then performed against the dataset examining the capability of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in simulating steady-state single-phase natural circulation. The experimental facility is modeled in the candidate code. Solution verification is performed using Richardson-extrapolation-based estimators which quantify and restrict numerical errors from discretization. Input uncertainty provided by the benchmark dataset is forward propagated through the candidate code, quantifying the output uncertainty in a Monte Carlo approach. The composition of the output uncertainty is also quantified through a variance-based sensitivity analysis. With the uncertainty quantified for each individual condition, a detailed comparison between the simulation results and experimental data is performed covering the whole dataset. The results show consistent agreement for all primary parameters. The current validation activity provides a valuable benchmark dataset for the validation of system analysis codes in capturing single-phase natural circulation and demonstrates satisfactory prediction capability of SAS4A/SASSYS1 for steady-state single-phase natural circulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗