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At least 541 records · Page 30

Some problems of Maryland towns as seen by their mayors

Conversations were held with the mayors of six Maryland towns to discuss possible models and needs for technology transfer. An unexpected outcome of the discussions was a considerable insight into local problems as perceived by the mayors. Problems, whether administrative, socio-economic, or technological, are different, from town to town, in degree, not in kind. Recognition of this feature of local priorities is vital to any considerations of external assistance.

Peake, H. J.↗

Generalized variables for controlling Government Transfer Services with respect to performance measures

The term Government Transfer Services is used in reference to any of the organized streams of public resources that flow into private economic activity. This includes such activities as offshore leasing, Social Security, and NASA technology transfer services. This paper describes a performance measure, empirical results, a theory, and a control model for such services. These are illustrated by a specific example (NASA). An agenda for developing this service control method is also presented.

Johnson, F. D.↗

Improving Aquatic Plant Management in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Management of aquatic weeds in complex watersheds and river systems present many challenges to assessment, planning and implementation of management practices for floating and submerged aquatic invasive plants. The Delta Region Areawide Aquatic Weed Project (DRAAWP), a USDA sponsored area-wide project, is working to enhance planning, decision-making and operational efficiency in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Satellite and airborne remote sensing are used map (area coverage and biomass), direct operations, and assess management impacts on plant communities. Archived satellite records going are used to review results from previous climate and management events and aide in developing long-term strategies. Modeling at local and watershed scales provides insight into land-use effects on water quality. Plant growth models informed by remote sensing are being applied spatially across the Delta to balance location and type of aquatic plant, growth response to altered environments, phenology, environmental regulations, and economics in selection of management practices. Initial utilization of remote sensing tools developed for mapping of aquatic invasive weeds improved operational efficiency by focusing limited chemical use to strategic areas with high plant-control impact and incorporating mechanical harvesting when chemical use is restricted. These assessment methods provide a comprehensive and quantitative view of aquatic invasive plants communities in the California Delta, both spatial and temporal, informed by ecological understanding with the objective of improving management and assessment effectiveness.

Aquatic↗

Transferring Knowledge from Observations and Models to Decision Makers: An Overview and Challenges

Over the last 25 years, a tremendous progress has been made in the Earth science space-based remote sensing observations, technologies and algorithms. Such advancements have improved the predictability by providing lead-time and accuracy of forecast in weather, climate, natural hazards, and natural resources. It has further reduced or bounded the overall uncertainties by partially improving our understanding of planet Earth as an integrated system that is governed by non-linear and chaotic behavior. Many countries such US, European Community, Japan, China and others have invested billions of dollars in developing and launching space-based assets in the low earth (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) orbits. However, the wealth of this scientific knowledge that has potential of extracting monumental socio-economic benefits from such large investments have been slow in reaching to public and decision makers. For instance, there are a number of areas such as energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural competitiveness, disaster management, security, air quality and public health can directly take advantage. Nevertheless, we all live in a global economy that depends on access to the best available Earth Science information for all inhabitants of this planet. This paper surveys and examines a number such applications in terms of their architecture, maturity and economic applicability as they apply to the societal needs. A detailed analysis is also presented of various challenges and issues that pertain to a number of areas such as: (1) difficulties in making a speedy transition of data and information from observations and models to relevant Decision Support Systems (DSS) or tools, (2) data and models inter-operability issues, (3) limitations of spatial, spectral and temporal resolution, (4) communication limitations as dictated by the availability of image processing and data compression techniques. Additionally, the most critical element amongst all is the organizational and management boundaries that must be resolved at local, state, national and international levels to implement and realize free flow of such vital information. This paper also makes attempts to address this topic and discuss possible approaches to deal with this quandary.

Habib, Shahid↗

China as an Evolving Metro-Agro-Plex (China-MAP)

The one-year NASA-funded project was implemented to complete the analyses and model-simulations undertaken under the auspices of the 3-year research effort supported by NASA as an Interdisciplinary Earth System Science Investigation (IDS) entitled: China As An Evolving Metro-Agro-Plex (China-MAP). The primary goal of China-MAP was to assess the effects of economic development and the regional environmental changes it engenders upon agriculture in China. The project was carried out as part of the Sino-U.S. Science and Technology Protocol in the Atmospheric Sciences, an official government-to-government agreement that establishes the parameters for joint research projects between the two nations in the atmospheric sciences. The NASA-funded portion of the project focused on the development and application of a regional coupled climate/chemical transport model for East Asia (i.e., RegChem-CM). The funds provided under the subject 1-year project were used to: (1) complete specific investigations undertaken by the China-MAP Science Team using the Reg-Chem-CM expended; and (2) document the results of these and other China-MAP investigations in the peer-reviewed literature. A summary of these specific investigations in provided.

Chameides, William L.↗

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

The value of improved (ERS) information based on domestic distribution effects of U.S. agriculture crops

The value of improving information for forecasting future crop harvests was investigated. Emphasis was placed upon establishing practical evaluation procedures firmly based in economic theory. The analysis was applied to the case of U.S. domestic wheat consumption. Estimates for a cost of storage function and a demand function for wheat were calculated. A model of market determinations of wheat inventories was developed for inventory adjustment. The carry-over horizon is computed by the solution of a nonlinear programming problem, and related variables such as spot and future price at each stage are determined. The model is adaptable to other markets. Results are shown to depend critically on the accuracy of current and proposed measurement techniques. The quantitative results are presented parametrically, in terms of various possible values of current and future accuracies.

Bradford, D. F.↗

Air cargo market outlook and impact via the NASA CLASS project

An overview is given of the Cargo/Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS) project which was a 10 man-year effort carried out by two contractor teams, aimed at defining factors impacting future system growth and obtaining market requirements and design guidelines for future air freighters. Growth projection was estimated by two approaches: one, an optimal systems approach with a more efficient and cost effective system considered as being available in 1990; and the other, an evolutionary approach with an econometric behavior model used to predict long term evolution from the present system. Both approaches predict significant growth in demand for international air freighter services and less growth for U.S. domestic services. Economic analysis of air freighter fleet options indicate very strong market appeal of derivative widebody transports in 1990 with little incentive to develop all new dedicated air freighters utilizing the 1990's technology until sometime beyond the year 2000. Advanced air freighters would be economically attractive for a wide range of payload sizes (to 500 metric tons), however, if a government would share in the RD and T costs by virtue of its needs for a slightly modified version of a civil air freighter design (a.g. military airlifter).

Winston, M. M.↗

3D inelastic analysis methods for hot section components

The objective is to develop analytical tools capable of economically evaluating the cyclic time dependent plasticity which occurs in hot section engine components in areas of strain concentration resulting from the combination of both mechanical and thermal stresses. Three models were developed. A simple model performs time dependent inelastic analysis using the power law creep equation. The second model is the classical model of Professors Walter Haisler and David Allen of Texas A and M University. The third model is the unified model of Bodner, Partom, et al. All models were customized for linear variation of loads and temperatures with all material properties and constitutive models being temperature dependent.

Dame, L. T.↗

Establishing the relationship between manufacturing and component performance in stretch formed thermoplastic composites

Flexible manufacturing methods are needed to reduce the cost of using advanced composites in structural applications. One method that allows for this is the stretch forming of long discontinuous fiber materials with thermoplastic matrices. In order to exploit this flexibility in an economical way, a thorough understanding of the relationship between manufacturing and component performance must be developed. This paper reviews some of the recent work geared toward establishing this understanding. Micromechanics models have been developed to predict the formability of the material during processing. The latest improvement of these models includes the viscoelastic nature of the matrix and comparison with experimental data. A finite element scheme is described which can be used to model the forming process. This model uses equivalent anisotropic viscosities from the micromechanics models and predicts the microstructure in the formed part. In addition, structural models have been built to account for the material property gradients that can result from the manufacturing procedures. Recent developments in this area include the analysis of stress concentrations and a failure model each accounting for the heterogeneous material fields.

Santare, Michael H.↗

What if Things Get Worse? Really Grand Challenges for Modeling and Simulation in a Risky and Complex World or Modeling and Simulation for the "Greater Good"?

Today Modeling and Simulation-- ---as an important practice or industry or area of expertise ----- is at a complex crossroad - a sort of cyber-highway--where these complexities meet-technical, economic, environmental, geopolitical and cultural. They may converge or collide. Let's not kid ourselves. It is all too much for anyone person or organization Malcolm Gladwell said it. "We have constructed a world in which the potential for high tech catastrophe is embedded in the fabric of everyday life." We are surrounded by problems that scream at us from our television, Internet and social networks along with billboards and protest signs. We face not just high tech catastrophes but, also, landslides, earthquakes, tornados, floods and hurricanes and large-scale criminality. Evil, war, famine and pestilence have not gone away. It is all too much to think about. My friend, George Peabody, who taught me everything I know about power said that addressing such issues requires that we constantly build our network, information resources and the credibility and visibility of our work. That is how we will build the power of simulation so it can change the world --even maybe, save it. We need all the help we can get and give one another because our human early warning systems appear to be out of kilter. We seem to have trouble imagining how small failings can continue to lead to catastrophic disaster. Think about O-rings and blowout preventers. One is reminded of the old nursery rhyme, "For want of a nail, a shoe was lost! for want of a shoe the horse was lost! for want of a rider the battle was lost and so the kingdom fell." Although the investigation will take more time for real answers, it is worrisome that a rig worker reported to the BBC that-- weeks before the explosion of Deep Ocean Horizon. -he identified a leak in the oil rig's safety equipment -the Control Pod of the blowout preventer which has giant shears designed to cut and seal off the well's main pipe. With both electronics and hydraulics, these are effectively the brains of the blowout preventer. No one fixed it, he alleges, they just shut it down and relied on the other control pod -an act deemed unacceptable by petroleum expert, Tad Patzek, at the University of Texas. The US Congress has identified numerous other problems with the blowout preventer, including design problems and unexpected modifications.

Fifrey, Priscilla↗

Evaluation of Dynamic Coastal Response to Sea-level Rise Modifies Inundation Likelihood

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30x30m resolution predictions for more than 38,000 sq km of diverse coastal landscape in the northeastern United States. Probabilistic SLR projections, coastal elevation and vertical land movement are used to estimate likely future inundation levels. Then, conditioned on future inundation levels and the current land-cover type, we evaluate the likelihood of dynamic response versus inundation. We find that nearly 70% of this coastal landscape has some capacity to respond dynamically to SLR, and we show that inundation models over-predict land likely to submerge. This approach is well suited to guiding coastal resource management decisions that weigh future SLR impacts and uncertainty against ecological targets and economic constraints.

Climate-change impacts↗

SMAP L4 Assessment of the US Northern Plains 2017 Flash Drought

A rapidly developing "flash drought" occurred over the US Northern Plains in the summer of 2017, spurred by unusually high temperatures and strong evaporative demand. The impacts of the drought included widespread reductions in rangeland and agricultural productivity that cascaded into significant economic losses. Here, we used satellite information from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to clarify the nature and impact of the drought on regional vegetation growth. The model enhanced SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4SM) and Carbon (L4C) products were used with other ancillary data to examine spatial and seasonal anomalies in surface to root zone soil moisture and vegetation productivity (GPP). We find that the flash drought was triggered by a mid-July heat wave, conditioned by exceptionally low spring rainfall. The drought resulted in anomalous low soil moisture levels and regional GPP collapse, coinciding with severe (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought conditions indicated from the US Drought Monitor. The SMAP L4C GPP anomalies closely tracked reported county-level crop production anomalies for the major regional crop types, indicating generally larger productivity decline in managed croplands than surrounding natural areas. The SMAP L4 global products provide an effective indicator of vegetation growth changes and moisture-related restrictions on ecosystem productivity that are complementary with more traditional drought assessment tools.

GPP↗

Expanding the Spatiotemporal Range of Soil Moisture Analysis Utilizing NASA Earth Observations and In Situ Measurements

Drought can cause immense agricultural and ecological damage resulting in high mitigation and compensation costs. Climate variability in future decades is expected to cause severe drought conditions and threaten necessary water resources. Stakeholders seek to implement effective drought assessments in preparation for potential economic and environmental damage invoked by drought. Although in-situ measurements are accurate, the current infrastructure is spatially limited and costly to maintain. A framework was created to compare modeled, satellite and in-situ data in drought monitoring. Here we show that the comparison of in-situ and remotely sensed soil moisture (SM) measurements can increase the spatiotemporal range of SM assessments. Data collected between 2003 and 2021 by NASA’s SPoRT Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission were standardized and compared with in-situ data provided through the Illinois Climate Network (WARM). Statistical analysis results including the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), root mean squared error, mean absolute error and others were calculated to compare the WARM measurements to the SMAP and SPoRT-LIS products. Results indicate that both satellite products demonstrate seasonally variable bias that is not present in the in-situ measurements. Bias was highest in the winter months and lowest in the late summer and early fall months in both satellite datasets. Overall, WARM-SPoRT comparisons resulted in lower seasonal variability. However, on average, the SMAP comparison demonstrated higher correlation values and lower error values. The WARM-SMAP average correlation (r) was 0.61 compared to the WARM-SPoRT average correlation (r) value of 0.54. Average mean absolute error values calculated for the SMAP and SPoRT comparisons were 0.07 and 0.08 percent soil moisture by volume, respectively. These analyses suggest integrating in-situ measurements and those provided by NASA Earth observations can be utilized in a multi-faceted SM evaluation, a valuable contribution to drought monitoring and water resource decision making.

Emma P Myrick↗

Modeling and a correlation algorithm for spaceborne SAR signals

A mathematical model of a spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) response is presented. Thhe associated SAR system performance, in terms of the resolution capability, is also discussed. The analysis of spaceborne SAR target response indicates that the SAR correlation problem is a two-dimensional one with a linear shift-variant response function. A new digital processing algorithm is proposed here in order to realize an economical digital SAR correlation system. The proposed algorithm treats the two-dimensional correlation by a combination of frequency domain fast correlation in the azimuth dimension and a time-domain convolver type of operation in the range dimension. Finally, digitally correlated SEASAT satellite SAR imagery is used in an exemplary sense to validate the SAR response model and the new digital processing technique developed.

Wu, C.↗